NAGNAGNAGNEIGH

i give up 
taking remaining pot and running
had enough of continously getting beat on the line.
take care all
 

Hi guys
starting a place drip starting with a bank of £1000 and seeing where it will get to by new years day if i get there
max bet will be 10% of pot
 
1st bet today 3.00 Aintree
£100 Nuts well to place in first 3 @6/4
 
10 year old gelding who loves this trip and has run well here 2nd and a 1st
has a really decent record when ridden by Mcmenanin who has climbed the ranks quite nicely
Think its form is rock solid all over the places
 
 

i give up 
taking remaining pot and running
had enough of continously getting beat on the line.
take care all
 

due to a family bereavement had some time out
pot currently stands at 868.84
todays bet is a treble
86.88 treble
12.30 cheltenham Magistrato got 4/9 -  3places
1.32 Uttoxeter Lupus Regem got 1/3 - 3 places
2.00 Wetherby  Cracking destiny got 4/5 - 3 places
good luck to all you guys having a punt on any of your selections today.
One things for certain lifes too short so enjoy doing what makes you happy
 

Six races on terrestrial TV on Saturday - 4 from Cheltenham and a brace from Lingfield. No rain in the forecast so the ground at Cheltenham is likely to ride on the soft side of good. Here’s my early thoughts and staking plan for the sextet. 
 
Cheltenham 1.40
Once more a disappointing turnout for a novice chase with only 4 due to go to post for this 2m grade 2 contest. It’s hard to look beyond Third Time Lucki who was so impressive at the October meeting when coasting home from subsequent Navan winner Buddy Rich. What impressed most about that victory was his effortless jumping and a similar round of jumping should see him come home an easy winner. Mick Pastor and Captain Tom Cat met in the Rising Stars Novices Chase last weekend at Wincanton with the latter coming out 2 1/4L to the good and despite the runner up that day being 5lb better off here can confirm the form and take runners up spot. 
THIRD TIME LUCKI to beat CAPTAIN TOM CAT 1 point straight forecast
 
Cheltenham 2.15
The feature race of the day and what a cracker it is. A maximum field of 20 go to post on perfect jumping ground for this years renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup run over 2m 4F 44yds. It has a wide open look to it with the Skelton’s novice from last year  Protektorat towards the top of the market along with Lalor who’s joined Paul Nicholls from Kayleigh Woolacott and been given a wind operation. Last year’s 1-2 Coole Cody and Spiritofthegames are back to renew rivalry with the latter now 8lb better off for 3 1/4L. The horse I like though did also run in the race last year when going off favourite and finishing 3rd beaten 4 1/4L and that’s Al Dancer. He’s has an excellent record fresh (1111) and has plenty of decent form on this track. He’s left Nigel Twiston Davies since the end of last season and joined the up and coming handler Sam Thomas, most famous for his association as a jockey with the great Denman. He’ll be ridden by his usual pilot Sam Twiston Davies and looks decent each way value to me. Galahad Quest is a horse at the foot of the weights that can also run well following an eye catching run at Wetherby a fortnight ago. With such a big field you’re going to need plenty of luck in running and I’ll be having a small saver on the aforementioned Coole Cody who as a habitual front runner will be out and away from any scrimmaging behind him and that may count for a lot here. 
AL DANCER 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5th 123456
COOLE CODY 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5th 123456
 
Cheltenham 2.50
11 go to post for this 3 mile handicap hurdle with quite a few holding decent chances. The Skelton’s Proschema improved for a step up to this trip last time when runner up in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby and has been shunted up 3lb for that fine effort. He’s a player here. Kansas City Chief was a shock winner of a similar contest at the last meeting but has been put up 5lb for that and this does look tougher so is overlooked here. There are doubts over the trip for Shannon Bridge and Valentino Dancer and I like the look of the handicap debutant Dragon Bones here. Trained by Ian Williams and ridden by 3lb conditional Charlie Todd he has been consistent as a novice winning 4 of his 6 starts (unseated when likely to have won on one of the other starts) and appeared to improve for the step up to this trip at the last meeting when a length runner up to an decent Irish novice. 10L away back in third that day was Fergal O’Brien’s Onagatheringstorm and he reappears today on 9lb better terms so shouldn’t be far away. 
DRAGON BONES 2 points each way @ 4/1 1/5 1234 William Hills
 
Lingfield 3.05
12 go to post for the listed Golden Rose Stakes run over 6F and I think there’s a horse here worth a good go at. Last years winner Good Effort, trained at Newmarket by Ismail Mohammed is three from three at the track and the best in at today’s weights. He was last seen racing at Belmont Park in the States on the dirt which didn’t seem to suit and back on his favourite track he can make all from stall 8. Jim Crowley comes in for the ride for the first time and with very little early pace on will no doubt hope to get across and lead them all a merry dance. 
GOOD EFFORT 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hills
 
Cheltenham 3.25
A 2m 5F handicap hurdle with the Dan Skelton trained Unexpected Party who. Add a mockery of his initial handicap mark a fortnight ago when coasting home in a Wetherby novices handicap hurdle.  He’s now 11lb higher in a better race and at the prices doesn’t appeal that much. Olly Murphy is having a real purple patch at the moment and he sends his Mackelduff here who impressed when winning at Aintree last month and has been put up 7lb for that effort. He won well that day and as this is only his 5th career start theatre may well still be improvement to come. There is a trip doubt about top weight Benson whilst  Gowel Road also has to conclusively prove he stays the trip as does Pyramid Place. 
MACKELDUFF 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hills
 
Lingfield 3.40
A 10F listed contest that sees the return of Group 1 Coronation Cup winner Pyledriver who has to carry a 7lb penalty here and at the prices doesn’t appeal to me with this race presumably been used  as a prep race for the Japan Cup. Last years winner Dubai Warrior has left John Gosden now and is in the care of David Loughnane but doesn’t look the same horse to be honest. The horse I like is Felix who’ s course figures read 122 and following a 119 day lay off can be competitive here. 
FELIX 2 points each way @ 7/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123
 
 
 
 

Hi All,
Around 2 months ago I started spending more time betting on horse racing alongside my job. I use the Geegeez site for the majority of my race research alongside replays if I feel the picture is unclear from the in race comments. I also try to watch back all the races I've bet in to build up a "bank" of knowledge around horses to make the research stage quicker.
My strategy is as follows (very similar for flat or jumps):
Assess the likely pace (&Draw) set up of the race and compare that to the course set up to see which horses may have the race run to suit. Quickly review the data around how a horse has performed under these conditions before (this is a specific tab on the Geegeez website). To do this I adjust the going based on the weather forecast. Once I have these factors I go down each horse individually and build a picture of its profile (which conditions it runs well in, handicap mark, any reasons to mark up recent performances) and then try to assign a price to this. I also add a comment to summarise its profile (this comment is visible for future races) Whilst going down the list of horses I try to compare horses chances against each other to get them in the right "order" of the betting. I currently try to price all races to either 0% of at most 0.5% per runner. E.g. for a 10 runner race I won't price up to more than 105%, sometimes I have to adjust my prices after my first attempt for get within this margin. When the prices come out, I compare mine to the market. My view is because I bet to a lower % than the book will, if I make something a bigger price, there is a fair chance it is worth betting. However, I only bet it if I can see an argument for it winning, e.g. if I've made a horse 8/1 and the books go 12/1, but I don't fancy it, I may not bet it. (this suggests to me I have got my prices wrong). If my price is bigger and I can see an argument for it winning then I will bet it. My bets tend to be 8/1 + but sometimes I bet favs if I think they should be shorter. Staking- my stake is mostly dependent on how far out the bookies are compared to me, e.g. Last night I made a horse 4/1 and it was put in at 10's so this was a max bet, however there was also a horse at 10s that I had as a 7's chance so this was a smaller bet. The only other factor for staking is if I really fancy a horse to win I may bet bigger even if the margin isn't as big. Results- In September I made 5% ROI, so far in October I'm at 88% ROI. I'm also fairly consistently beating SP, although hard to say how good that is given the low margin I bet to.
Any thoughts or improvements on the above would be appreciated, I also had the following questions:
Should I be betting to such a low margin? How long is long enough to show that I'm profitable and it's not just variance? My stakes are lower than they could be but don't want to up them too early. Do others use multiples? If so, whats the best way of using these? Im getting a few accounts closed, is there anyway way around this apart from friends/family accounts? Thanks in advance for any help/advice.

10 races covered by the ITV cameras and he’s my thoughts on them. With rain around the ground is likely to be on the soft side for all three meetings. 
 
Wetherby 1.20
A 2m 3F 85yds handicap chase that features two interesting fencing debutants in Harry Fry’s Revels Hill and David Pipe’s Gericault Roque. Both are worth monitoring in the market but preference is for the more experienced chaser Corran Cross. A 2m 3F beginners chase winner at Downpatrick for ‘Sneezy’ Foster in August he subsequently joined Richard Bandey for £22,000 at the Goffs UK horses in training sales and appeared not to stay 3 miles at Worcester earlier in the month when weakening after the last. Hampshire trainer Bandey had a winner a week ago at Worcester with Saint Palau’s and his charge here can run a big race. 
CORRAN CROSS 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power
 
Ascot 1.35
Only 7 go to post for this 2m 3F novice’s handicap chase with all bar rank outsider Lord Baddesley marking their fencing debut. Anthony Honeyball’s Kid Commando was a winner over hurdles on this card last year and has had his wind tinkered with since we last saw him. As a winning Irish point to pointer one would think that jumping a fence will suit and he looks sure to run well despite top weight. He’s been well found in the betting though and I’ll take a chance on Emma Lavelle’s Sam Barton who’s a lightly raced hurdler whom winning jockey Adam Wedge said last year that ‘he’ll make a lovely chaser’. He’s been nicely supported in the last 48 hours and looks sure to run well. You can’t dismiss the Gary Moore trained 4 year old Nassalam either who as such a young horse receives a 10lb allowance which could prove vital. The softer the better for him. 
SAM BARTON 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365
 
Wetherby 1.55
Only 7 go to post for this 2 mile mares listed hurdle. Paul Nicholl’s Miranda has to be on the short list despite a 6lb penalty as must the unpenalised Henderson mare Marie’s Rock although she had a disappointing season last term and has questions to answer now. I favour the Skelton’s Molly Olly’s Wishes who at these weights is officially rated the best in the field by 2lb from Miranda. A consistent sort who ran up a hat trick last season including a similar contest over further by 15L at Warwick in February. If she’s fit she should give a very good account of herself.  
MOLLYS OLLYS WISHES 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365
 
Ascot 2.10
14 go to post for this 1m 7F 152yds listed handicap hurdle with two decent sorts battling it out at the top of the market for favouritism. Jonjo O’Neill has his team in fine shape scoring an across the card treble on Thursday and trains Soaring Glory who was an impressive winner of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last February. Subsequently 4th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham he drops back into handicap company off of a 10lb higher mark than Newbury and looks sure to be competitive. Preference however is for the Harry Fry trained handicap debutant Boothill who has always been held in very high regard by his trainer. A winner of a Kempton bumper and a Taunton novice hurdle he could literally be anything and may be able to exploit his initial handicap mark of 135. He was down to run in a novice chase on Sunday so you would think that his canny trainer is looking to take advantage of his hurdle mark before deciding whether to switch to the bigger obstacles. Best of the rest may well be Megan who was backed at big odds and travelling well when crashing out three from home in a valuable 4 year old handicap hurdle at Chepstow three weeks ago won by Progression. 
BOOTHILL 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hills
 
Wetherby 2.30
The Bet365 Hurdle is a grade 2 contest run over 3 miles and has attracted a field of 8. Despite a 6lb penalty for his Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle victory at Ascot last December Emma Lavelle’s 2019 Stayers Hurdle winner looks the one to beat. 3rd in last seasons Stayers Hurdle he hasn’t been seen since bombing out at Aintree in April but if back to somewhere near his best surely will be hard to beat under regular pilot Aidan Coleman. Master Tommytucker was chasing last season though is actually unbeaten in his two runs over timber whilst Thomas Darby is unpenalised and also comes into it here getting 6lb from the selections. Lavelle has been amongst the winners recently and has a major chance. 
PAISLEY PARK 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hills
 
Ascot 2.45
A competitive looking 10 runner listed handicap chase run over 2m 1F where a case can be made for near enough all of the runners. Venetia Williams is a streaky trainer and when she hits form is worth following. She’s yet to get going this season but had a winner at Ffos Las on Thursday and maybe now her horses are worth watching.She saddles Frero Banbou who’s form from Aintree in the Red Rum Handicap Chase last April stands up very well here with opponents Grey Diamond 3/4L behind him that day and 1lb worse off whilst the winner that day and favourite today Editeur Du Gite is now 10lb worse off for a 8 3/4L beating of Frero Banbou. Interestingly there has been a bit of money since declaration time for Venetia William’s 6 year old and he can take this. 
FRERO BANBOU 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5th 123 Bet365 
 
Down Royal 2.50
Only five run in this years renewal of the Ladbrokes Champion Chase with the star attraction being last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo who is reunited with Rachael Blackmore who chose against him in that race last March. He’s the top rated here and if straight enough (Jack Kennedy said in the trade paper that he gave him a good feel when schooling him in the week)will take the beating. Gordon Elliott has two in the race in Delta Work, who’s always promised more than he’s delivered and Galvin who has a fair bit to do at the weights but comes here a recent winner. He’s a good ground horse mind so wouldn’t want the ground to ease. Paul Nicholls does well with his visits to the Northern Irish track and saddles Frodon who we know is likely to lead. A cracking race with Minella Indo the likely winner and is without doubt a race to watch and savour. 
MINELLA INDO 2 points win @ EVS Bet365 
 
Wetherby 3.05
A small but select field of 7 go to post for this years renewal of the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase with last years easy winner Cyrname back to defend his title under a 6lb penalty. He never went on from that impressive win pulling up in the King George Chase and in the Ascot Chase. He has had a wind operation since we last saw him and goes well fresh but at around Evens is hard to back following those last two defeats. Novice Shan Blue has a good record here but has plenty on at the weights whilst Nicky Henderson’s Fusil Raffles comes into it following his second at Newton Abbot earlier in the month. A small wager is suggested though on the Tom George trained Clondaw Castle who’s moment of glory came last season when winning the Close Brothers Handicap Chase (formerly Racing Post Chase ) at Kempton in February. He has fitness to prove but maybe a value alternative to the likely winner Cyrname. 
CLONDAW CASTLE 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hills
 
Ascot 3.20
Top weight Vinndication is three from three at the Berkshire track and will be hard to beat in the 3 mile London Cup Handicap Chase. He won this race, landing a gamble in the process, two years ago and is only 7lb higher now. He has an excellent record fresh (1112) and actually chased home Cyrname in the Charlie Hall on this day last year. He might be favourite but he will be hard to beat with David Bass riding for his guvnor Kim Bailey. Jerrysback is the other horse I’m interested in. I feel he’s still got a handicap like this in him and despite his awkward form figures I will be throwing away a saver at him. 
VINNDICATION 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hills
JERRYSBACK 1 point each way @ 17/2 1/5th 123 Paddy Power 
 
Wetherby 3.40
A competitive 14 runner 2m 3 1/2F handicap hurdle with many holding chances of sorts. The three handicap debutants interest me. Donald McCain’s Mackenberg, Harry Fry’s Our Surprise and Jedd O’Keefe’s Rattle Owl. All have claims but slight preference is with the Sedgefield novice hurdle winner Rattle Owl. The third that day has won a handicap by 10L since to give the form plenty of substance and smart conditional Oakley Brown keep the ride and is good value for his 5lb claim. In an open handicap a small each way bet on him looks the play here. 
RATTLE OWL 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power
 
 
 
 

bad start finishing 5th only beaten 5.5 lengths though just faded away having made a mistake at the last
bank now 900
results 0 from 1

Hi guys
starting a place drip starting with a bank of £1000 and seeing where it will get to by new years day if i get there
max bet will be 10% of pot
 
1st bet today 3.00 Aintree
£100 Nuts well to place in first 3 @6/4
 
10 year old gelding who loves this trip and has run well here 2nd and a 1st
has a really decent record when ridden by Mcmenanin who has climbed the ranks quite nicely
Think its form is rock solid all over the places
 
 

Hi guys
starting a place drip starting with a bank of £1000 and seeing where it will get to by new years day if i get there
max bet will be 10% of pot
 
1st bet today 3.00 Aintree
£100 Nuts well to place in first 3 @6/4
 
10 year old gelding who loves this trip and has run well here 2nd and a 1st
has a really decent record when ridden by Mcmenanin who has climbed the ranks quite nicely
Think its form is rock solid all over the places
 
 

Hi guys
starting a place drip starting with a bank of £1000 and seeing where it will get to by new years day if i get there
max bet will be 10% of pot
 
1st bet today 3.00 Aintree
£100 Nuts well to place in first 3 @6/4
 
10 year old gelding who loves this trip and has run well here 2nd and a 1st
has a really decent record when ridden by Mcmenanin who has climbed the ranks quite nicely
Think its form is rock solid all over the places
 
 

Hi guys
starting a place drip starting with a bank of £1000 and seeing where it will get to by new years day if i get there
max bet will be 10% of pot
 
1st bet today 3.00 Aintree
£100 Nuts well to place in first 3 @6/4
 
10 year old gelding who loves this trip and has run well here 2nd and a 1st
has a really decent record when ridden by Mcmenanin who has climbed the ranks quite nicely
Think its form is rock solid all over the places
 
 

Quickfire £50 place double today
3.15 doncaster royal patronage first three places @ 8/11
3.30 cheltenham sky pirate first two places @ 5/6  
returns 158 quid
good luck all
 
managed to get 10/11 and evens so returns just under £191 happy days
just got to come in now lol
 

Quickfire £50 place double today
3.15 doncaster royal patronage first three places @ 8/11
3.30 cheltenham sky pirate first two places @ 5/6  
returns 158 quid
good luck all
 
managed to get 10/11 and evens so returns just under £191 happy days
just got to come in now lol
 

Quickfire £50 place double today
3.15 doncaster royal patronage first three places @ 8/11
3.30 cheltenham sky pirate first two places @ 5/6  
returns 158 quid
good luck all
 
managed to get 10/11 and evens so returns just under £191 happy days
just got to come in now lol
 

Quickfire £50 place double today
3.15 doncaster royal patronage first three places @ 8/11
3.30 cheltenham sky pirate first two places @ 5/6  
returns 158 quid
good luck all
 
managed to get 10/11 and evens so returns just under £191 happy days
just got to come in now lol
 

BOOOOOOOOM!
 

i literally give up posting as its all a load of bollix
i had 3 from 4 today but the one i had up lost
pure bullshit.
im done take care
 
 

having had a week off due to not being able to string 2 results together i bounced back last week with a 52 point profit ( sorry i hate aftertimers too )
so thats the commentators curse ....
3.05 Goodwood :- I really cant see past Wonderful tonight but is it worth backing ? A winners a winner i hear you say. My preference is The Roger Varian filly ridden by Ray Dawson Believe in Love. This consistent filly should run well. Having won a group 3 last time out in Ireland she arrives in good form. The only real blip in her record is when she lost a shoe ay York and was eased right down as she lost her action.
Believe in love is a course winner which lets be honest is a bit of a bonus at Goodwood albeit in a class 3. She has improved massively since stepping up to 1m6f. Pace and ground should be fine.
Believe in Love in my opinion is better value for 3 places that backing wonderful tonight for 1 place
1pt each way
5 pts to place
Good luck to all
 

having had a week off due to not being able to string 2 results together i bounced back last week with a 52 point profit ( sorry i hate aftertimers too )
so thats the commentators curse ....
3.05 Goodwood :- I really cant see past Wonderful tonight but is it worth backing ? A winners a winner i hear you say. My preference is The Roger Varian filly ridden by Ray Dawson Believe in Love. This consistent filly should run well. Having won a group 3 last time out in Ireland she arrives in good form. The only real blip in her record is when she lost a shoe ay York and was eased right down as she lost her action.
Believe in love is a course winner which lets be honest is a bit of a bonus at Goodwood albeit in a class 3. She has improved massively since stepping up to 1m6f. Pace and ground should be fine.
Believe in Love in my opinion is better value for 3 places that backing wonderful tonight for 1 place
1pt each way
5 pts to place
Good luck to all
 

having had a week off due to not being able to string 2 results together i bounced back last week with a 52 point profit ( sorry i hate aftertimers too )
so thats the commentators curse ....
3.05 Goodwood :- I really cant see past Wonderful tonight but is it worth backing ? A winners a winner i hear you say. My preference is The Roger Varian filly ridden by Ray Dawson Believe in Love. This consistent filly should run well. Having won a group 3 last time out in Ireland she arrives in good form. The only real blip in her record is when she lost a shoe ay York and was eased right down as she lost her action.
Believe in love is a course winner which lets be honest is a bit of a bonus at Goodwood albeit in a class 3. She has improved massively since stepping up to 1m6f. Pace and ground should be fine.
Believe in Love in my opinion is better value for 3 places that backing wonderful tonight for 1 place
1pt each way
5 pts to place
Good luck to all
 

sort of sums my luck lately so going to take a break literally cant string 2 bets together
Good luck to all you guys i hope you fleece the bookies.
god bless and stay safe

sort of sums my luck lately so going to take a break literally cant string 2 bets together
Good luck to all you guys i hope you fleece the bookies.
god bless and stay safe

Saturday 10pt Place double
1.50 Newbury 8 runners - 3 places 
Derab
2.55 Newmarket 8 runners - 3 places @ 5/6 
Really looking forward to seein Thore Hammer Hansen claim his 3lb on Beat Le Bon Bon and i will be there to see this run up the hill
It finishes well and will be running on at the end for sure
literally just under 2/1
good luck all today
time for a nice full english and a few beers
 

Saturday 10pt Place double
1.50 Newbury 8 runners - 3 places 
Derab
2.55 Newmarket 8 runners - 3 places @ 5/6 
Really looking forward to seein Thore Hammer Hansen claim his 3lb on Beat Le Bon Bon and i will be there to see this run up the hill
It finishes well and will be running on at the end for sure
literally just under 2/1
good luck all today
time for a nice full english and a few beers