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The Brigadier

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  1. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to In Play Race Reader in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    In the dash,I’ve backed Clarendon House (2)and a smaller each way on Recon Mission(1) ,,Against public perception that you need a high draw ,,when in fact over the last 10 runnings,when the going’s come up fast ,ie Good -Firm (which has happened 4 times) the winners have been drawn ;;2,1,1,2 ,,, at sp’s of 33/1,25/1,16/1 & 50/1 ,,,,Looks decent value to me 👍
  2. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    This Saturday sees the running of the fastest horse race in the world, the Epsom Dash. The 5-furlong race is all downhill until the last 100 yards. The current world record of 53.69 seconds was set by Stone of Folca in 2012.
    The race is open to horses aged three years or older. 20 go to post and off time is 15.20.
    Most bookmakers are offering up to 6 places which makes this an excellent betting proposition.
     
    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
    It is best to keep clear of those at the top of the betting. Just 2 winners from 64 runners have been in the top 7 in the betting forecast. The remainder have recorded 6 wins from 48 runs with a profit of 98 points.
    Claiming jockeys have a poor record with no wins from 26 attempts.
    Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 5 wins from 62 runs and a profit of 50 points.
     
    3 horses meet these criteria.
     
    ZARZYNI 16/1
    CAME FROM THE DARK 16/1
    SAMPERS SEVEN 11/1
     
    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5/6 places.
  3. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from MinellaWorksop in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    It’s Derby day and the ITV cameras are showing all eight races from an intriguing card from Epsom where following extensive watering throughout the week the ground should be riding perfect with the official report reading as good. I’ve some strong fancies in the last three handicaps today so here’s my racing tips to beat the bookies.   Epsom 12:50 The day kicks off with the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes run over 1M 113 yards. The one to beat has to be the Godolphin horse Highland Avenue. He’s been a talented horse over the years and it’s his latest effort which makes him a stand out here. He appeared to be used as a pacemaker for the re-appearing 2021 Derby winner Adayar at Newmarket in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes last month keeping on well to finish third to his stablemate beaten 3L, just 1/2L behind the runner up Anmaat with Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality some 11L further back in fourth. Anmaat was out last week in France winning a Group 1 and that looks a good piece of form, certainly better than anything his opponents have mustered in recent times. Handicap ratings have David O’Meara’s Escobar only a pound behind the favourite but he’s best in big field handicaps and was soundly beaten in this contest last season. Imperial Fighter is out of form and Marie’s Diamond has a stone to find with Highland Avenue whilst the only three year old in the field Kolsai maybe the one to chase Highland Avenue home. The only negative against the favourite is the stable form of Charlie Appleby who (upto racing on Thursday) had had just 4 winners from his last 32 runners which by his standards is pretty poor.   HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point win @ 5/4 BetVictor   Epsom 13:30 This year’s Derby is run earlier than normal due to avoiding a clash with the FA Cup Final and let’s hope there’s no issues with the Animal Rising hooligans who are planning to disrupt the great race. Run over 1M 4F we have a stellar field of 14 for this year’s renewal. Aidan O’Brien struck top form last weekend when winning with Guineas disappointment Little Big Bear and Paddington in the Irish 2000 Guineas and will be hoping that Auguste Rodin can also bounce back from his flop in the 2000 Guineas. He obviously could but at the current prices he’s impossible to put up after his lack lustre effort there for whatever reason. The Dante at York is always the best trial in my opinion and the best of the three that ran that day may well be Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger. On a day in which Richard Kingscote would like to forget (Astro King anyone!) he constantly ran in to trouble and was flying when finally extracted to finish third to the winner The Foxes beaten only 1 1/2L. Would he have won? It’s hard to tell but that was only his second ever start and improvement is highly likely here stepping up a furlong and a half. He was supplemented for this at the cost of £85,000 and is on the short list for the team that took the race last year. Charlie Appleby’s Military Order, as a full brother to the 2021 winner Adayar, has to be respected. He’s done more coming into the race than his brother did when winning this a couple of years ago with the only negative for me the form of the stable who just aren’t firing on all cylinders. Arrest would be a fairytale result for Frankie Dettori riding in his last Epsom Derby before retirement and that is a distinct possibility although he could have done with easier ground. If you like Arrest then surely it’s worth backing Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat him at Saint Cloud last Autumn over 10F and had an ideal prep for this when running a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas. It’s baffling that he’s twice the price of Arrest and has to be part of the staking plan along with Passenger. An intriguing race , as always, let the best horse win.   PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:10 Just the six go to post for the 1M 113 yards Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares only. Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova ran second in this last year but her latest run and re-appearance was blighted by an irregular heartbeat with Ryan Moore pulling her up at Goodwood. It’s hard to fancy her after that effort. Half a length behind Potapova last year was the Archie Watson trainer Roman Mist who ran out a good winner of the listed contest at Goodwood that Potapova pulled up in a month ago on heavy ground. This looks tougher mind and has 11lb to find with favourite and most likely winner Prosperous Voyage. Ralph Beckett’s four year old Prosperous Voyage, a winner here as a two year old, kept top company last season finishing runner up in the 1000 Guineas and causing an upset in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting when defeating Inspiral at 16/1. The ground was probably against her on her re-appearance when only 5th of 9 in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on soft ground and back on a sounder surface and dropped in class looks the one they all have to beat. Ed Walker’s Random Harvest has to shoulder a 3lb penalty which will make this tough for her whilst the ground surely isn’t soft enough for Pam Sly’s flag bearer Astral Beau. The Gosden’s Shaara hated the ground last time and has featured promisingly in gallop reports since, she might be the one to outrun her odds and chase the favourite home.   PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor   Epsom 14:45 A new race for the card is the class 3 three years only 5F ‘Dash’ handicap with fourteen declared for this inaugural contest. There’s plenty of horses with chances here including Salisbury one-two Estate and Betweenthesticks from a week ago and there shouldn’t be much between that pair at the revised terms although that was a class 5 handicap and this looks tougher especially now they have both been re-assessed. The one I like here is the John Quinn trained Jm Jungle who stepped up his form when tackling fast ground for the first time this season when runner up at York in a competitive class 3 handicap a fortnight ago with Miss Brazen and Tatterstall back in 6th and 7th respectively. He’s been raised 4lb for that fine effort and with his trainer doing so well at this track looks the one to be on here with Jason Hart on board. The interesting one in the field is the Roger Varian trained Russet Gold who we haven’t seen since last October having being gelded since. With Harry Davies, who still claims 3lb, on top booked he’s one to watch carefully in the betting.   JM JUNGLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:20 The traditional Derby day cavalry charge is up next with twenty speedsters declared for the class 2 Dash Handicap run over 5F with the downhill track on fast ground likely to produce a real spectacle and a very fast time. Last year’s runner up Mountain Peak is one of two Ed Walker runners here (the other being Came From The Dark who would prefer easier ground) and can run well despite his poor effort last time out at York ( a track he’s never run that well at). Clarendon House is another with claims having had excuses for his latest effort when a fine 5th at York losing a shoe during the race. Also there with a chance are the consistent Lihou, trained by sprint specialist David Evans and ridden by Hollie Doyle who can turn the tables on his recent conqueror Angle Land on 4lb better terms for 3/4L. David & Nicola Barron’s Zarzyni is also on my short list having dropped to a mark 5lb lower than his last winning one and wasn’t disgraced at York last week. The draw has seen winners coming from all across the track so I’m not getting bogged down with that and I will look for the best horse. Hopefully that might be Ian Williams’s Mokaatil whose form figures at this specialist track reads 41110 which includes victory in this very race in 2021 and a credible 4th last year. His jockey is the Irish Sean D Bowen (not to be confused with the jump jockey!) who is a new name to me but has won on 13 of his 272 mounts in his native country and gets to claim the full allowance of 7lb here which puts Mokaatil on a mark of 78 which is 4lb less than his win two years ago and 9lb less than last year’s 4th. With the cobwebs blown away with a run at Newmarket 7 weeks ago on unsuitable easy ground he looks sure to run well in a wide open sprint handicap.   MOKAATIL 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Epsom 15:55 A maximum field of 14 go to post for this class 2 10F Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap for three year olds only for which I think there’s a decent each way bet. Ralph Beckett’s Balance Play looks thrown in on his handicap debut here off of 81 having finished runner up to the subsequent winner Quddwah at Salisbury a month ago. The winner has won again since and is now rated 95 whilst the third that day Greek Order has also won since and is now rated 85. Nicely drawn in stall 6 this 280,000 guineas yearling by Lope De Vega will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and looks excellent each way value with firms paying an extra place. As one would expect in a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers lurking including Charlie Hills’ Lose Your Wad who, like the selection, is also making his handicap debut with his form already working out well and with a future Group entry at Royal Ascot further enhancing his claims. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of runners with Torito (handicap debut) preferred from soft ground Ascot winner Maasai Mara whilst the Sir Michael Stoute runner Fox Journey is going the right way having won at Newmarket last time but now is 9lb higher in the handicap. Balance Play is a confident each way bet.   BALANCE PLAY 1 1/2 points each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 Only 9 have declared for this 1M 4F class 2 handicap. Max Mayhem was a winner on his stable debut for Kevin Philippart De Foy in the valuable Roseberry Handicap at Kempton on the all weather in April and off of just a 4lb higher mark has definite claims today. Scampi was a 16/1 winner for Hayley Turner and Andrew Balding at York last time but is now upped 6lb and has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark. Sir Mark Prescott has his string in excellent form currently and his representative Sea King sporting first time cheek pieces is another with claims but this can go to the David Menuisier trained Caius Chorister who racked up a five timer last summer including two course and distance wins on fast ground bringing her track form figures to 112. She ran well on ground that may not have suited on her re-appearance in the City And Suburban Handicap here over a trip on the short side when runner up to Bad Company and one would think this race has been the target since especially with Ryan Moore booked. Her future entry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot later in the month may not be too much of a pipe dream where she to win here off of 99 and is a strong fancy.   CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   Epsom 17:05 The day finishes with a class 2 6F handicap with another maximum field of 14 going to post. Jennie Candlish’s Probe won nicely at Newmarket a month ago with Apollo One back in fourth (7lb better off here for 3 1/2L) and even with a 7lb rise can be competitive from a favourable draw in 4 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Haymaker comes here having won at Windsor 12 days ago and has to race off of a 4lb higher handicap mark today. Robert Eddery has his small string in decent form and saddles his Spring Bloom here who was last seen winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago and a 4lb rise my not stop him being competitive. The horse I’m keen on though is last year’s victor Mr Wagyu who has a remarkable record in June and July of 15 wins from 30 starts for a level £1 stakes profit at SP of £69.35 (with 10 other times hitting the frame as well) as opposed to his record outside of those months which reads 0 from 43. John Quinn’s eight year came out of stall 12 last year when winning so hopefully a wide draw of 11 won’t be too much of a hinderance. His latest run at York when 7th to Bielsa proved he’s on the way back and off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last years win can further his fantastic summer record under regular rider Jason Hart.   MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234   All odds accurate at time of writing.
  4. Thanks
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Brahmin in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    It’s Derby day and the ITV cameras are showing all eight races from an intriguing card from Epsom where following extensive watering throughout the week the ground should be riding perfect with the official report reading as good. I’ve some strong fancies in the last three handicaps today so here’s my racing tips to beat the bookies.   Epsom 12:50 The day kicks off with the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes run over 1M 113 yards. The one to beat has to be the Godolphin horse Highland Avenue. He’s been a talented horse over the years and it’s his latest effort which makes him a stand out here. He appeared to be used as a pacemaker for the re-appearing 2021 Derby winner Adayar at Newmarket in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes last month keeping on well to finish third to his stablemate beaten 3L, just 1/2L behind the runner up Anmaat with Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality some 11L further back in fourth. Anmaat was out last week in France winning a Group 1 and that looks a good piece of form, certainly better than anything his opponents have mustered in recent times. Handicap ratings have David O’Meara’s Escobar only a pound behind the favourite but he’s best in big field handicaps and was soundly beaten in this contest last season. Imperial Fighter is out of form and Marie’s Diamond has a stone to find with Highland Avenue whilst the only three year old in the field Kolsai maybe the one to chase Highland Avenue home. The only negative against the favourite is the stable form of Charlie Appleby who (upto racing on Thursday) had had just 4 winners from his last 32 runners which by his standards is pretty poor.   HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point win @ 5/4 BetVictor   Epsom 13:30 This year’s Derby is run earlier than normal due to avoiding a clash with the FA Cup Final and let’s hope there’s no issues with the Animal Rising hooligans who are planning to disrupt the great race. Run over 1M 4F we have a stellar field of 14 for this year’s renewal. Aidan O’Brien struck top form last weekend when winning with Guineas disappointment Little Big Bear and Paddington in the Irish 2000 Guineas and will be hoping that Auguste Rodin can also bounce back from his flop in the 2000 Guineas. He obviously could but at the current prices he’s impossible to put up after his lack lustre effort there for whatever reason. The Dante at York is always the best trial in my opinion and the best of the three that ran that day may well be Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger. On a day in which Richard Kingscote would like to forget (Astro King anyone!) he constantly ran in to trouble and was flying when finally extracted to finish third to the winner The Foxes beaten only 1 1/2L. Would he have won? It’s hard to tell but that was only his second ever start and improvement is highly likely here stepping up a furlong and a half. He was supplemented for this at the cost of £85,000 and is on the short list for the team that took the race last year. Charlie Appleby’s Military Order, as a full brother to the 2021 winner Adayar, has to be respected. He’s done more coming into the race than his brother did when winning this a couple of years ago with the only negative for me the form of the stable who just aren’t firing on all cylinders. Arrest would be a fairytale result for Frankie Dettori riding in his last Epsom Derby before retirement and that is a distinct possibility although he could have done with easier ground. If you like Arrest then surely it’s worth backing Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat him at Saint Cloud last Autumn over 10F and had an ideal prep for this when running a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas. It’s baffling that he’s twice the price of Arrest and has to be part of the staking plan along with Passenger. An intriguing race , as always, let the best horse win.   PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:10 Just the six go to post for the 1M 113 yards Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares only. Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova ran second in this last year but her latest run and re-appearance was blighted by an irregular heartbeat with Ryan Moore pulling her up at Goodwood. It’s hard to fancy her after that effort. Half a length behind Potapova last year was the Archie Watson trainer Roman Mist who ran out a good winner of the listed contest at Goodwood that Potapova pulled up in a month ago on heavy ground. This looks tougher mind and has 11lb to find with favourite and most likely winner Prosperous Voyage. Ralph Beckett’s four year old Prosperous Voyage, a winner here as a two year old, kept top company last season finishing runner up in the 1000 Guineas and causing an upset in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting when defeating Inspiral at 16/1. The ground was probably against her on her re-appearance when only 5th of 9 in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on soft ground and back on a sounder surface and dropped in class looks the one they all have to beat. Ed Walker’s Random Harvest has to shoulder a 3lb penalty which will make this tough for her whilst the ground surely isn’t soft enough for Pam Sly’s flag bearer Astral Beau. The Gosden’s Shaara hated the ground last time and has featured promisingly in gallop reports since, she might be the one to outrun her odds and chase the favourite home.   PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor   Epsom 14:45 A new race for the card is the class 3 three years only 5F ‘Dash’ handicap with fourteen declared for this inaugural contest. There’s plenty of horses with chances here including Salisbury one-two Estate and Betweenthesticks from a week ago and there shouldn’t be much between that pair at the revised terms although that was a class 5 handicap and this looks tougher especially now they have both been re-assessed. The one I like here is the John Quinn trained Jm Jungle who stepped up his form when tackling fast ground for the first time this season when runner up at York in a competitive class 3 handicap a fortnight ago with Miss Brazen and Tatterstall back in 6th and 7th respectively. He’s been raised 4lb for that fine effort and with his trainer doing so well at this track looks the one to be on here with Jason Hart on board. The interesting one in the field is the Roger Varian trained Russet Gold who we haven’t seen since last October having being gelded since. With Harry Davies, who still claims 3lb, on top booked he’s one to watch carefully in the betting.   JM JUNGLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:20 The traditional Derby day cavalry charge is up next with twenty speedsters declared for the class 2 Dash Handicap run over 5F with the downhill track on fast ground likely to produce a real spectacle and a very fast time. Last year’s runner up Mountain Peak is one of two Ed Walker runners here (the other being Came From The Dark who would prefer easier ground) and can run well despite his poor effort last time out at York ( a track he’s never run that well at). Clarendon House is another with claims having had excuses for his latest effort when a fine 5th at York losing a shoe during the race. Also there with a chance are the consistent Lihou, trained by sprint specialist David Evans and ridden by Hollie Doyle who can turn the tables on his recent conqueror Angle Land on 4lb better terms for 3/4L. David & Nicola Barron’s Zarzyni is also on my short list having dropped to a mark 5lb lower than his last winning one and wasn’t disgraced at York last week. The draw has seen winners coming from all across the track so I’m not getting bogged down with that and I will look for the best horse. Hopefully that might be Ian Williams’s Mokaatil whose form figures at this specialist track reads 41110 which includes victory in this very race in 2021 and a credible 4th last year. His jockey is the Irish Sean D Bowen (not to be confused with the jump jockey!) who is a new name to me but has won on 13 of his 272 mounts in his native country and gets to claim the full allowance of 7lb here which puts Mokaatil on a mark of 78 which is 4lb less than his win two years ago and 9lb less than last year’s 4th. With the cobwebs blown away with a run at Newmarket 7 weeks ago on unsuitable easy ground he looks sure to run well in a wide open sprint handicap.   MOKAATIL 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Epsom 15:55 A maximum field of 14 go to post for this class 2 10F Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap for three year olds only for which I think there’s a decent each way bet. Ralph Beckett’s Balance Play looks thrown in on his handicap debut here off of 81 having finished runner up to the subsequent winner Quddwah at Salisbury a month ago. The winner has won again since and is now rated 95 whilst the third that day Greek Order has also won since and is now rated 85. Nicely drawn in stall 6 this 280,000 guineas yearling by Lope De Vega will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and looks excellent each way value with firms paying an extra place. As one would expect in a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers lurking including Charlie Hills’ Lose Your Wad who, like the selection, is also making his handicap debut with his form already working out well and with a future Group entry at Royal Ascot further enhancing his claims. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of runners with Torito (handicap debut) preferred from soft ground Ascot winner Maasai Mara whilst the Sir Michael Stoute runner Fox Journey is going the right way having won at Newmarket last time but now is 9lb higher in the handicap. Balance Play is a confident each way bet.   BALANCE PLAY 1 1/2 points each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 Only 9 have declared for this 1M 4F class 2 handicap. Max Mayhem was a winner on his stable debut for Kevin Philippart De Foy in the valuable Roseberry Handicap at Kempton on the all weather in April and off of just a 4lb higher mark has definite claims today. Scampi was a 16/1 winner for Hayley Turner and Andrew Balding at York last time but is now upped 6lb and has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark. Sir Mark Prescott has his string in excellent form currently and his representative Sea King sporting first time cheek pieces is another with claims but this can go to the David Menuisier trained Caius Chorister who racked up a five timer last summer including two course and distance wins on fast ground bringing her track form figures to 112. She ran well on ground that may not have suited on her re-appearance in the City And Suburban Handicap here over a trip on the short side when runner up to Bad Company and one would think this race has been the target since especially with Ryan Moore booked. Her future entry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot later in the month may not be too much of a pipe dream where she to win here off of 99 and is a strong fancy.   CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   Epsom 17:05 The day finishes with a class 2 6F handicap with another maximum field of 14 going to post. Jennie Candlish’s Probe won nicely at Newmarket a month ago with Apollo One back in fourth (7lb better off here for 3 1/2L) and even with a 7lb rise can be competitive from a favourable draw in 4 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Haymaker comes here having won at Windsor 12 days ago and has to race off of a 4lb higher handicap mark today. Robert Eddery has his small string in decent form and saddles his Spring Bloom here who was last seen winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago and a 4lb rise my not stop him being competitive. The horse I’m keen on though is last year’s victor Mr Wagyu who has a remarkable record in June and July of 15 wins from 30 starts for a level £1 stakes profit at SP of £69.35 (with 10 other times hitting the frame as well) as opposed to his record outside of those months which reads 0 from 43. John Quinn’s eight year came out of stall 12 last year when winning so hopefully a wide draw of 11 won’t be too much of a hinderance. His latest run at York when 7th to Bielsa proved he’s on the way back and off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last years win can further his fantastic summer record under regular rider Jason Hart.   MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234   All odds accurate at time of writing.
  5. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Villa Chris in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    It’s Derby day and the ITV cameras are showing all eight races from an intriguing card from Epsom where following extensive watering throughout the week the ground should be riding perfect with the official report reading as good. I’ve some strong fancies in the last three handicaps today so here’s my racing tips to beat the bookies.   Epsom 12:50 The day kicks off with the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes run over 1M 113 yards. The one to beat has to be the Godolphin horse Highland Avenue. He’s been a talented horse over the years and it’s his latest effort which makes him a stand out here. He appeared to be used as a pacemaker for the re-appearing 2021 Derby winner Adayar at Newmarket in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes last month keeping on well to finish third to his stablemate beaten 3L, just 1/2L behind the runner up Anmaat with Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality some 11L further back in fourth. Anmaat was out last week in France winning a Group 1 and that looks a good piece of form, certainly better than anything his opponents have mustered in recent times. Handicap ratings have David O’Meara’s Escobar only a pound behind the favourite but he’s best in big field handicaps and was soundly beaten in this contest last season. Imperial Fighter is out of form and Marie’s Diamond has a stone to find with Highland Avenue whilst the only three year old in the field Kolsai maybe the one to chase Highland Avenue home. The only negative against the favourite is the stable form of Charlie Appleby who (upto racing on Thursday) had had just 4 winners from his last 32 runners which by his standards is pretty poor.   HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point win @ 5/4 BetVictor   Epsom 13:30 This year’s Derby is run earlier than normal due to avoiding a clash with the FA Cup Final and let’s hope there’s no issues with the Animal Rising hooligans who are planning to disrupt the great race. Run over 1M 4F we have a stellar field of 14 for this year’s renewal. Aidan O’Brien struck top form last weekend when winning with Guineas disappointment Little Big Bear and Paddington in the Irish 2000 Guineas and will be hoping that Auguste Rodin can also bounce back from his flop in the 2000 Guineas. He obviously could but at the current prices he’s impossible to put up after his lack lustre effort there for whatever reason. The Dante at York is always the best trial in my opinion and the best of the three that ran that day may well be Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger. On a day in which Richard Kingscote would like to forget (Astro King anyone!) he constantly ran in to trouble and was flying when finally extracted to finish third to the winner The Foxes beaten only 1 1/2L. Would he have won? It’s hard to tell but that was only his second ever start and improvement is highly likely here stepping up a furlong and a half. He was supplemented for this at the cost of £85,000 and is on the short list for the team that took the race last year. Charlie Appleby’s Military Order, as a full brother to the 2021 winner Adayar, has to be respected. He’s done more coming into the race than his brother did when winning this a couple of years ago with the only negative for me the form of the stable who just aren’t firing on all cylinders. Arrest would be a fairytale result for Frankie Dettori riding in his last Epsom Derby before retirement and that is a distinct possibility although he could have done with easier ground. If you like Arrest then surely it’s worth backing Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat him at Saint Cloud last Autumn over 10F and had an ideal prep for this when running a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas. It’s baffling that he’s twice the price of Arrest and has to be part of the staking plan along with Passenger. An intriguing race , as always, let the best horse win.   PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:10 Just the six go to post for the 1M 113 yards Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares only. Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova ran second in this last year but her latest run and re-appearance was blighted by an irregular heartbeat with Ryan Moore pulling her up at Goodwood. It’s hard to fancy her after that effort. Half a length behind Potapova last year was the Archie Watson trainer Roman Mist who ran out a good winner of the listed contest at Goodwood that Potapova pulled up in a month ago on heavy ground. This looks tougher mind and has 11lb to find with favourite and most likely winner Prosperous Voyage. Ralph Beckett’s four year old Prosperous Voyage, a winner here as a two year old, kept top company last season finishing runner up in the 1000 Guineas and causing an upset in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting when defeating Inspiral at 16/1. The ground was probably against her on her re-appearance when only 5th of 9 in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on soft ground and back on a sounder surface and dropped in class looks the one they all have to beat. Ed Walker’s Random Harvest has to shoulder a 3lb penalty which will make this tough for her whilst the ground surely isn’t soft enough for Pam Sly’s flag bearer Astral Beau. The Gosden’s Shaara hated the ground last time and has featured promisingly in gallop reports since, she might be the one to outrun her odds and chase the favourite home.   PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor   Epsom 14:45 A new race for the card is the class 3 three years only 5F ‘Dash’ handicap with fourteen declared for this inaugural contest. There’s plenty of horses with chances here including Salisbury one-two Estate and Betweenthesticks from a week ago and there shouldn’t be much between that pair at the revised terms although that was a class 5 handicap and this looks tougher especially now they have both been re-assessed. The one I like here is the John Quinn trained Jm Jungle who stepped up his form when tackling fast ground for the first time this season when runner up at York in a competitive class 3 handicap a fortnight ago with Miss Brazen and Tatterstall back in 6th and 7th respectively. He’s been raised 4lb for that fine effort and with his trainer doing so well at this track looks the one to be on here with Jason Hart on board. The interesting one in the field is the Roger Varian trained Russet Gold who we haven’t seen since last October having being gelded since. With Harry Davies, who still claims 3lb, on top booked he’s one to watch carefully in the betting.   JM JUNGLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:20 The traditional Derby day cavalry charge is up next with twenty speedsters declared for the class 2 Dash Handicap run over 5F with the downhill track on fast ground likely to produce a real spectacle and a very fast time. Last year’s runner up Mountain Peak is one of two Ed Walker runners here (the other being Came From The Dark who would prefer easier ground) and can run well despite his poor effort last time out at York ( a track he’s never run that well at). Clarendon House is another with claims having had excuses for his latest effort when a fine 5th at York losing a shoe during the race. Also there with a chance are the consistent Lihou, trained by sprint specialist David Evans and ridden by Hollie Doyle who can turn the tables on his recent conqueror Angle Land on 4lb better terms for 3/4L. David & Nicola Barron’s Zarzyni is also on my short list having dropped to a mark 5lb lower than his last winning one and wasn’t disgraced at York last week. The draw has seen winners coming from all across the track so I’m not getting bogged down with that and I will look for the best horse. Hopefully that might be Ian Williams’s Mokaatil whose form figures at this specialist track reads 41110 which includes victory in this very race in 2021 and a credible 4th last year. His jockey is the Irish Sean D Bowen (not to be confused with the jump jockey!) who is a new name to me but has won on 13 of his 272 mounts in his native country and gets to claim the full allowance of 7lb here which puts Mokaatil on a mark of 78 which is 4lb less than his win two years ago and 9lb less than last year’s 4th. With the cobwebs blown away with a run at Newmarket 7 weeks ago on unsuitable easy ground he looks sure to run well in a wide open sprint handicap.   MOKAATIL 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Epsom 15:55 A maximum field of 14 go to post for this class 2 10F Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap for three year olds only for which I think there’s a decent each way bet. Ralph Beckett’s Balance Play looks thrown in on his handicap debut here off of 81 having finished runner up to the subsequent winner Quddwah at Salisbury a month ago. The winner has won again since and is now rated 95 whilst the third that day Greek Order has also won since and is now rated 85. Nicely drawn in stall 6 this 280,000 guineas yearling by Lope De Vega will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and looks excellent each way value with firms paying an extra place. As one would expect in a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers lurking including Charlie Hills’ Lose Your Wad who, like the selection, is also making his handicap debut with his form already working out well and with a future Group entry at Royal Ascot further enhancing his claims. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of runners with Torito (handicap debut) preferred from soft ground Ascot winner Maasai Mara whilst the Sir Michael Stoute runner Fox Journey is going the right way having won at Newmarket last time but now is 9lb higher in the handicap. Balance Play is a confident each way bet.   BALANCE PLAY 1 1/2 points each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 Only 9 have declared for this 1M 4F class 2 handicap. Max Mayhem was a winner on his stable debut for Kevin Philippart De Foy in the valuable Roseberry Handicap at Kempton on the all weather in April and off of just a 4lb higher mark has definite claims today. Scampi was a 16/1 winner for Hayley Turner and Andrew Balding at York last time but is now upped 6lb and has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark. Sir Mark Prescott has his string in excellent form currently and his representative Sea King sporting first time cheek pieces is another with claims but this can go to the David Menuisier trained Caius Chorister who racked up a five timer last summer including two course and distance wins on fast ground bringing her track form figures to 112. She ran well on ground that may not have suited on her re-appearance in the City And Suburban Handicap here over a trip on the short side when runner up to Bad Company and one would think this race has been the target since especially with Ryan Moore booked. Her future entry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot later in the month may not be too much of a pipe dream where she to win here off of 99 and is a strong fancy.   CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   Epsom 17:05 The day finishes with a class 2 6F handicap with another maximum field of 14 going to post. Jennie Candlish’s Probe won nicely at Newmarket a month ago with Apollo One back in fourth (7lb better off here for 3 1/2L) and even with a 7lb rise can be competitive from a favourable draw in 4 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Haymaker comes here having won at Windsor 12 days ago and has to race off of a 4lb higher handicap mark today. Robert Eddery has his small string in decent form and saddles his Spring Bloom here who was last seen winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago and a 4lb rise my not stop him being competitive. The horse I’m keen on though is last year’s victor Mr Wagyu who has a remarkable record in June and July of 15 wins from 30 starts for a level £1 stakes profit at SP of £69.35 (with 10 other times hitting the frame as well) as opposed to his record outside of those months which reads 0 from 43. John Quinn’s eight year came out of stall 12 last year when winning so hopefully a wide draw of 11 won’t be too much of a hinderance. His latest run at York when 7th to Bielsa proved he’s on the way back and off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last years win can further his fantastic summer record under regular rider Jason Hart.   MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234   All odds accurate at time of writing.
  6. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    It’s Derby day and the ITV cameras are showing all eight races from an intriguing card from Epsom where following extensive watering throughout the week the ground should be riding perfect with the official report reading as good. I’ve some strong fancies in the last three handicaps today so here’s my racing tips to beat the bookies.   Epsom 12:50 The day kicks off with the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes run over 1M 113 yards. The one to beat has to be the Godolphin horse Highland Avenue. He’s been a talented horse over the years and it’s his latest effort which makes him a stand out here. He appeared to be used as a pacemaker for the re-appearing 2021 Derby winner Adayar at Newmarket in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes last month keeping on well to finish third to his stablemate beaten 3L, just 1/2L behind the runner up Anmaat with Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality some 11L further back in fourth. Anmaat was out last week in France winning a Group 1 and that looks a good piece of form, certainly better than anything his opponents have mustered in recent times. Handicap ratings have David O’Meara’s Escobar only a pound behind the favourite but he’s best in big field handicaps and was soundly beaten in this contest last season. Imperial Fighter is out of form and Marie’s Diamond has a stone to find with Highland Avenue whilst the only three year old in the field Kolsai maybe the one to chase Highland Avenue home. The only negative against the favourite is the stable form of Charlie Appleby who (upto racing on Thursday) had had just 4 winners from his last 32 runners which by his standards is pretty poor.   HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point win @ 5/4 BetVictor   Epsom 13:30 This year’s Derby is run earlier than normal due to avoiding a clash with the FA Cup Final and let’s hope there’s no issues with the Animal Rising hooligans who are planning to disrupt the great race. Run over 1M 4F we have a stellar field of 14 for this year’s renewal. Aidan O’Brien struck top form last weekend when winning with Guineas disappointment Little Big Bear and Paddington in the Irish 2000 Guineas and will be hoping that Auguste Rodin can also bounce back from his flop in the 2000 Guineas. He obviously could but at the current prices he’s impossible to put up after his lack lustre effort there for whatever reason. The Dante at York is always the best trial in my opinion and the best of the three that ran that day may well be Sir Michael Stoute’s Passenger. On a day in which Richard Kingscote would like to forget (Astro King anyone!) he constantly ran in to trouble and was flying when finally extracted to finish third to the winner The Foxes beaten only 1 1/2L. Would he have won? It’s hard to tell but that was only his second ever start and improvement is highly likely here stepping up a furlong and a half. He was supplemented for this at the cost of £85,000 and is on the short list for the team that took the race last year. Charlie Appleby’s Military Order, as a full brother to the 2021 winner Adayar, has to be respected. He’s done more coming into the race than his brother did when winning this a couple of years ago with the only negative for me the form of the stable who just aren’t firing on all cylinders. Arrest would be a fairytale result for Frankie Dettori riding in his last Epsom Derby before retirement and that is a distinct possibility although he could have done with easier ground. If you like Arrest then surely it’s worth backing Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat him at Saint Cloud last Autumn over 10F and had an ideal prep for this when running a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas. It’s baffling that he’s twice the price of Arrest and has to be part of the staking plan along with Passenger. An intriguing race , as always, let the best horse win.   PASSENGER 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:10 Just the six go to post for the 1M 113 yards Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 3 contest for fillies and mares only. Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova ran second in this last year but her latest run and re-appearance was blighted by an irregular heartbeat with Ryan Moore pulling her up at Goodwood. It’s hard to fancy her after that effort. Half a length behind Potapova last year was the Archie Watson trainer Roman Mist who ran out a good winner of the listed contest at Goodwood that Potapova pulled up in a month ago on heavy ground. This looks tougher mind and has 11lb to find with favourite and most likely winner Prosperous Voyage. Ralph Beckett’s four year old Prosperous Voyage, a winner here as a two year old, kept top company last season finishing runner up in the 1000 Guineas and causing an upset in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting when defeating Inspiral at 16/1. The ground was probably against her on her re-appearance when only 5th of 9 in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on soft ground and back on a sounder surface and dropped in class looks the one they all have to beat. Ed Walker’s Random Harvest has to shoulder a 3lb penalty which will make this tough for her whilst the ground surely isn’t soft enough for Pam Sly’s flag bearer Astral Beau. The Gosden’s Shaara hated the ground last time and has featured promisingly in gallop reports since, she might be the one to outrun her odds and chase the favourite home.   PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor   Epsom 14:45 A new race for the card is the class 3 three years only 5F ‘Dash’ handicap with fourteen declared for this inaugural contest. There’s plenty of horses with chances here including Salisbury one-two Estate and Betweenthesticks from a week ago and there shouldn’t be much between that pair at the revised terms although that was a class 5 handicap and this looks tougher especially now they have both been re-assessed. The one I like here is the John Quinn trained Jm Jungle who stepped up his form when tackling fast ground for the first time this season when runner up at York in a competitive class 3 handicap a fortnight ago with Miss Brazen and Tatterstall back in 6th and 7th respectively. He’s been raised 4lb for that fine effort and with his trainer doing so well at this track looks the one to be on here with Jason Hart on board. The interesting one in the field is the Roger Varian trained Russet Gold who we haven’t seen since last October having being gelded since. With Harry Davies, who still claims 3lb, on top booked he’s one to watch carefully in the betting.   JM JUNGLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:20 The traditional Derby day cavalry charge is up next with twenty speedsters declared for the class 2 Dash Handicap run over 5F with the downhill track on fast ground likely to produce a real spectacle and a very fast time. Last year’s runner up Mountain Peak is one of two Ed Walker runners here (the other being Came From The Dark who would prefer easier ground) and can run well despite his poor effort last time out at York ( a track he’s never run that well at). Clarendon House is another with claims having had excuses for his latest effort when a fine 5th at York losing a shoe during the race. Also there with a chance are the consistent Lihou, trained by sprint specialist David Evans and ridden by Hollie Doyle who can turn the tables on his recent conqueror Angle Land on 4lb better terms for 3/4L. David & Nicola Barron’s Zarzyni is also on my short list having dropped to a mark 5lb lower than his last winning one and wasn’t disgraced at York last week. The draw has seen winners coming from all across the track so I’m not getting bogged down with that and I will look for the best horse. Hopefully that might be Ian Williams’s Mokaatil whose form figures at this specialist track reads 41110 which includes victory in this very race in 2021 and a credible 4th last year. His jockey is the Irish Sean D Bowen (not to be confused with the jump jockey!) who is a new name to me but has won on 13 of his 272 mounts in his native country and gets to claim the full allowance of 7lb here which puts Mokaatil on a mark of 78 which is 4lb less than his win two years ago and 9lb less than last year’s 4th. With the cobwebs blown away with a run at Newmarket 7 weeks ago on unsuitable easy ground he looks sure to run well in a wide open sprint handicap.   MOKAATIL 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Epsom 15:55 A maximum field of 14 go to post for this class 2 10F Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap for three year olds only for which I think there’s a decent each way bet. Ralph Beckett’s Balance Play looks thrown in on his handicap debut here off of 81 having finished runner up to the subsequent winner Quddwah at Salisbury a month ago. The winner has won again since and is now rated 95 whilst the third that day Greek Order has also won since and is now rated 85. Nicely drawn in stall 6 this 280,000 guineas yearling by Lope De Vega will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni and looks excellent each way value with firms paying an extra place. As one would expect in a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers lurking including Charlie Hills’ Lose Your Wad who, like the selection, is also making his handicap debut with his form already working out well and with a future Group entry at Royal Ascot further enhancing his claims. John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of runners with Torito (handicap debut) preferred from soft ground Ascot winner Maasai Mara whilst the Sir Michael Stoute runner Fox Journey is going the right way having won at Newmarket last time but now is 9lb higher in the handicap. Balance Play is a confident each way bet.   BALANCE PLAY 1 1/2 points each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 Only 9 have declared for this 1M 4F class 2 handicap. Max Mayhem was a winner on his stable debut for Kevin Philippart De Foy in the valuable Roseberry Handicap at Kempton on the all weather in April and off of just a 4lb higher mark has definite claims today. Scampi was a 16/1 winner for Hayley Turner and Andrew Balding at York last time but is now upped 6lb and has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark. Sir Mark Prescott has his string in excellent form currently and his representative Sea King sporting first time cheek pieces is another with claims but this can go to the David Menuisier trained Caius Chorister who racked up a five timer last summer including two course and distance wins on fast ground bringing her track form figures to 112. She ran well on ground that may not have suited on her re-appearance in the City And Suburban Handicap here over a trip on the short side when runner up to Bad Company and one would think this race has been the target since especially with Ryan Moore booked. Her future entry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot later in the month may not be too much of a pipe dream where she to win here off of 99 and is a strong fancy.   CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   Epsom 17:05 The day finishes with a class 2 6F handicap with another maximum field of 14 going to post. Jennie Candlish’s Probe won nicely at Newmarket a month ago with Apollo One back in fourth (7lb better off here for 3 1/2L) and even with a 7lb rise can be competitive from a favourable draw in 4 whilst Hughie Morrison’s Haymaker comes here having won at Windsor 12 days ago and has to race off of a 4lb higher handicap mark today. Robert Eddery has his small string in decent form and saddles his Spring Bloom here who was last seen winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago and a 4lb rise my not stop him being competitive. The horse I’m keen on though is last year’s victor Mr Wagyu who has a remarkable record in June and July of 15 wins from 30 starts for a level £1 stakes profit at SP of £69.35 (with 10 other times hitting the frame as well) as opposed to his record outside of those months which reads 0 from 43. John Quinn’s eight year came out of stall 12 last year when winning so hopefully a wide draw of 11 won’t be too much of a hinderance. His latest run at York when 7th to Bielsa proved he’s on the way back and off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last years win can further his fantastic summer record under regular rider Jason Hart.   MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234   All odds accurate at time of writing.
  7. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from justice in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    The first of two cracking days racing at Epsom with two Group Ones on todays card with the Oaks set to be run at 16:30 (as long as those pesky Animal Rising idiots don’t have a say) and the Coronation Cup at 15:10. The ITV cameras are there for the first five races with the ground likely to ride good although the course has been very well watered in the last week.   Epsom 14:00 We start the two day Derby fixture with the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. With the race on the turning track it’s advantageous to be drawn low although a look back to last year’s race shows you can be competitive from a high draw. Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and saddles two interesting runners in Haatem who impressed when winning at Bath last time and can be competitive although my preference is for The Camden Colt who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He made all when winning at Haydock on fast ground eight days ago and if he can get over from stall 7 appears to hold every chance. The form of both Balon D’Or and Bobsleigh has been let down whilst Yorkshire Terrier would have been high on my shortlist but for his draw position of 12 of 12. He’s made all to win two all weather races and with Oisin Murphy on top can run well if overcoming that coffin box. I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Lidster’s, who is an under rated trainer, Land Lover runs very well from stall 1. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th (beaten 4 1/2L) on his racecourse debut at York in a £15k race and with improvement likely and a nice draw is worth a small each way saver with the main bet being The Camden Colt under Ryan Moore.   THE CAMDEN COLT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 LAND LOVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:35 A competitive 13 runner 1M 113 yard class 2 handicap is up next with the David O’Meara trained Rhoscolyn, owned by The Horse Watchers a very interesting contender. He’s been dropped another couple of pounds putting him 8lb lower than when running third at Royal Ascot last year and showed enough last time out to suggest his time is near. The George Boughey trained All The Kings Men is tried in first time blinkers and going up in trip which may well suit this William Buick ridden five year old. Charlie Johnstone saddles two with claims in Dutch Decoy (ridden by Neil Callan) who’s dropped below his last winning mark and Austrian Theory (Joe Fanning) who’s also dropped to a winning mark and showed enough last time to suggest he can run well. His latest win came at Hamilton a year ago when defeating Ghaly (who’s won both his races since and is now 13lb higher) and can go close. The ground isn’t soft enough for Hodler whilst top weight Revich who comes here following a recent win at Chester was runner up in this race last year but is up 6lb for Chester which puts him on his highest ever handicap mark. He should run well none the less. A tricky race which I’ve narrowed down to Rhoscolyn and Austrian Theory with the latter having the call.   AUSTRIAN THEORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:10 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby distance of 1M 4F and featuring four Group one winners with the odd one out the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who arrives in top,form having won both of his starts since a break including last time out at Chester in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes who can’t be dismissed either. John and Thady Gosden’s smart filly Emily Upjohn makes her re-appearance after apparently coming to hand slowly. She was an unlucky loser of last years Oaks on this day and ended last season winning the Group 1 Champion Fillies & mares at Ascot. She’s smart and can be competitive as long as she doesn’t pull too hard. Last year’s Derby 3rd (and possibly unlucky not to get closer having had a poor run in the race) and Irish Derby winner Westover is the most likely winner to my eyes and certainly wasn’t disgraced when runner up to the very smart Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Ralph Beckett’s four year old will be ridden by Rob Hornby who will feel he has unfinished business after last year’s unlucky passage in the Derby and can take the spoils. Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane shouldn’t be dismissed as a classic winner (St Leger from 2021) and impressed last time when bouncing back from a poor run at Newbury but I must admit I am a bit concerned with the form of some of the stable who certainly aren’t firing on all cylinders with just the 4 winners from their last 33 runners going into Thursday. The fifth member of the field is the German trained Tunnes who was a very easy winner of the German St Leger and a Group 1 last Autumn by 8L and 10L respectively although both wins came on very soft ground so for that reason alone is passed over here on today’s sounder surface.   WESTOVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 15:45 A valuable class 2 handicap for four year old and upwards, run over 10F has attracted a field of ten which gives it a good each way feel with some firms paying four places. John & Thady Gosden’s Honiton proved he was better than his seasonal re-appearance (when hating the soft ground) at Goodwood when pushed out to win by 1 1/4L at Newmarket on much better ground a fortnight later under today’s pilot James Doyle though has been raised 4lb for that win and is drawn out wide. He has every chance and has to be on anyone’s short list but back in fourth that day at Newmarket was William Knight’s Dual Identity who was visibly dropped out the back from the start by Jamie Spencer and made up ground to finish 2 1/2L behind Honiton and with a one pound drop is now 5lb better off and with a more positive ride from Neil Callan from an inside berth can make up the deficit on the Gosden horse and looks great each way value. A big outsider who is worth keeping an eye in is the Richard Spencer trained The City’s Phantom who may have needed his seasonal re-appearance when friendless in the market going off at 66/1 and running accordingly. He’s better than that and having been dropped 3lb finds himself on the same mark as when a 6L winner at Yarmouth 14 months ago. Top weight Savvy Victory arrives in good form under Ryan Moore although this will be his highest ever mark whilst Bad Company (5th last year) needs softer conditions. Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ won a similar handicap on his seasonal re-appearance at York’s Dante meeting (his first since wind surgery) and with only a 2lb rise is another with claims although they did all finish in a bit of a heap that day with one of today’s rivals Majestic only a length behind and 2lb better off. A tight handicap but I feel that Dual Identity is building up to something and should be backed each way with firms paying that fourth place although it has to be noted that Knight is looking for his first winner for 119 days and 36 runs although he has a couple of runner ups in his last five runners so hopefully his turn is near.   DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is will she handle this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week). I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly. David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double figure odds and possibly hit the frame.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor     All odds accurate at time of writing.    
  8. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    The first of two cracking days racing at Epsom with two Group Ones on todays card with the Oaks set to be run at 16:30 (as long as those pesky Animal Rising idiots don’t have a say) and the Coronation Cup at 15:10. The ITV cameras are there for the first five races with the ground likely to ride good although the course has been very well watered in the last week.   Epsom 14:00 We start the two day Derby fixture with the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. With the race on the turning track it’s advantageous to be drawn low although a look back to last year’s race shows you can be competitive from a high draw. Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and saddles two interesting runners in Haatem who impressed when winning at Bath last time and can be competitive although my preference is for The Camden Colt who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He made all when winning at Haydock on fast ground eight days ago and if he can get over from stall 7 appears to hold every chance. The form of both Balon D’Or and Bobsleigh has been let down whilst Yorkshire Terrier would have been high on my shortlist but for his draw position of 12 of 12. He’s made all to win two all weather races and with Oisin Murphy on top can run well if overcoming that coffin box. I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Lidster’s, who is an under rated trainer, Land Lover runs very well from stall 1. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th (beaten 4 1/2L) on his racecourse debut at York in a £15k race and with improvement likely and a nice draw is worth a small each way saver with the main bet being The Camden Colt under Ryan Moore.   THE CAMDEN COLT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 LAND LOVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:35 A competitive 13 runner 1M 113 yard class 2 handicap is up next with the David O’Meara trained Rhoscolyn, owned by The Horse Watchers a very interesting contender. He’s been dropped another couple of pounds putting him 8lb lower than when running third at Royal Ascot last year and showed enough last time out to suggest his time is near. The George Boughey trained All The Kings Men is tried in first time blinkers and going up in trip which may well suit this William Buick ridden five year old. Charlie Johnstone saddles two with claims in Dutch Decoy (ridden by Neil Callan) who’s dropped below his last winning mark and Austrian Theory (Joe Fanning) who’s also dropped to a winning mark and showed enough last time to suggest he can run well. His latest win came at Hamilton a year ago when defeating Ghaly (who’s won both his races since and is now 13lb higher) and can go close. The ground isn’t soft enough for Hodler whilst top weight Revich who comes here following a recent win at Chester was runner up in this race last year but is up 6lb for Chester which puts him on his highest ever handicap mark. He should run well none the less. A tricky race which I’ve narrowed down to Rhoscolyn and Austrian Theory with the latter having the call.   AUSTRIAN THEORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:10 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby distance of 1M 4F and featuring four Group one winners with the odd one out the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who arrives in top,form having won both of his starts since a break including last time out at Chester in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes who can’t be dismissed either. John and Thady Gosden’s smart filly Emily Upjohn makes her re-appearance after apparently coming to hand slowly. She was an unlucky loser of last years Oaks on this day and ended last season winning the Group 1 Champion Fillies & mares at Ascot. She’s smart and can be competitive as long as she doesn’t pull too hard. Last year’s Derby 3rd (and possibly unlucky not to get closer having had a poor run in the race) and Irish Derby winner Westover is the most likely winner to my eyes and certainly wasn’t disgraced when runner up to the very smart Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Ralph Beckett’s four year old will be ridden by Rob Hornby who will feel he has unfinished business after last year’s unlucky passage in the Derby and can take the spoils. Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane shouldn’t be dismissed as a classic winner (St Leger from 2021) and impressed last time when bouncing back from a poor run at Newbury but I must admit I am a bit concerned with the form of some of the stable who certainly aren’t firing on all cylinders with just the 4 winners from their last 33 runners going into Thursday. The fifth member of the field is the German trained Tunnes who was a very easy winner of the German St Leger and a Group 1 last Autumn by 8L and 10L respectively although both wins came on very soft ground so for that reason alone is passed over here on today’s sounder surface.   WESTOVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 15:45 A valuable class 2 handicap for four year old and upwards, run over 10F has attracted a field of ten which gives it a good each way feel with some firms paying four places. John & Thady Gosden’s Honiton proved he was better than his seasonal re-appearance (when hating the soft ground) at Goodwood when pushed out to win by 1 1/4L at Newmarket on much better ground a fortnight later under today’s pilot James Doyle though has been raised 4lb for that win and is drawn out wide. He has every chance and has to be on anyone’s short list but back in fourth that day at Newmarket was William Knight’s Dual Identity who was visibly dropped out the back from the start by Jamie Spencer and made up ground to finish 2 1/2L behind Honiton and with a one pound drop is now 5lb better off and with a more positive ride from Neil Callan from an inside berth can make up the deficit on the Gosden horse and looks great each way value. A big outsider who is worth keeping an eye in is the Richard Spencer trained The City’s Phantom who may have needed his seasonal re-appearance when friendless in the market going off at 66/1 and running accordingly. He’s better than that and having been dropped 3lb finds himself on the same mark as when a 6L winner at Yarmouth 14 months ago. Top weight Savvy Victory arrives in good form under Ryan Moore although this will be his highest ever mark whilst Bad Company (5th last year) needs softer conditions. Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ won a similar handicap on his seasonal re-appearance at York’s Dante meeting (his first since wind surgery) and with only a 2lb rise is another with claims although they did all finish in a bit of a heap that day with one of today’s rivals Majestic only a length behind and 2lb better off. A tight handicap but I feel that Dual Identity is building up to something and should be backed each way with firms paying that fourth place although it has to be noted that Knight is looking for his first winner for 119 days and 36 runs although he has a couple of runner ups in his last five runners so hopefully his turn is near.   DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is will she handle this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week). I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly. David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double figure odds and possibly hit the frame.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor     All odds accurate at time of writing.    
  9. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    The first of two cracking days racing at Epsom with two Group Ones on todays card with the Oaks set to be run at 16:30 (as long as those pesky Animal Rising idiots don’t have a say) and the Coronation Cup at 15:10. The ITV cameras are there for the first five races with the ground likely to ride good although the course has been very well watered in the last week.   Epsom 14:00 We start the two day Derby fixture with the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. With the race on the turning track it’s advantageous to be drawn low although a look back to last year’s race shows you can be competitive from a high draw. Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and saddles two interesting runners in Haatem who impressed when winning at Bath last time and can be competitive although my preference is for The Camden Colt who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He made all when winning at Haydock on fast ground eight days ago and if he can get over from stall 7 appears to hold every chance. The form of both Balon D’Or and Bobsleigh has been let down whilst Yorkshire Terrier would have been high on my shortlist but for his draw position of 12 of 12. He’s made all to win two all weather races and with Oisin Murphy on top can run well if overcoming that coffin box. I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Lidster’s, who is an under rated trainer, Land Lover runs very well from stall 1. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th (beaten 4 1/2L) on his racecourse debut at York in a £15k race and with improvement likely and a nice draw is worth a small each way saver with the main bet being The Camden Colt under Ryan Moore.   THE CAMDEN COLT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 LAND LOVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:35 A competitive 13 runner 1M 113 yard class 2 handicap is up next with the David O’Meara trained Rhoscolyn, owned by The Horse Watchers a very interesting contender. He’s been dropped another couple of pounds putting him 8lb lower than when running third at Royal Ascot last year and showed enough last time out to suggest his time is near. The George Boughey trained All The Kings Men is tried in first time blinkers and going up in trip which may well suit this William Buick ridden five year old. Charlie Johnstone saddles two with claims in Dutch Decoy (ridden by Neil Callan) who’s dropped below his last winning mark and Austrian Theory (Joe Fanning) who’s also dropped to a winning mark and showed enough last time to suggest he can run well. His latest win came at Hamilton a year ago when defeating Ghaly (who’s won both his races since and is now 13lb higher) and can go close. The ground isn’t soft enough for Hodler whilst top weight Revich who comes here following a recent win at Chester was runner up in this race last year but is up 6lb for Chester which puts him on his highest ever handicap mark. He should run well none the less. A tricky race which I’ve narrowed down to Rhoscolyn and Austrian Theory with the latter having the call.   AUSTRIAN THEORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:10 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby distance of 1M 4F and featuring four Group one winners with the odd one out the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who arrives in top,form having won both of his starts since a break including last time out at Chester in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes who can’t be dismissed either. John and Thady Gosden’s smart filly Emily Upjohn makes her re-appearance after apparently coming to hand slowly. She was an unlucky loser of last years Oaks on this day and ended last season winning the Group 1 Champion Fillies & mares at Ascot. She’s smart and can be competitive as long as she doesn’t pull too hard. Last year’s Derby 3rd (and possibly unlucky not to get closer having had a poor run in the race) and Irish Derby winner Westover is the most likely winner to my eyes and certainly wasn’t disgraced when runner up to the very smart Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Ralph Beckett’s four year old will be ridden by Rob Hornby who will feel he has unfinished business after last year’s unlucky passage in the Derby and can take the spoils. Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane shouldn’t be dismissed as a classic winner (St Leger from 2021) and impressed last time when bouncing back from a poor run at Newbury but I must admit I am a bit concerned with the form of some of the stable who certainly aren’t firing on all cylinders with just the 4 winners from their last 33 runners going into Thursday. The fifth member of the field is the German trained Tunnes who was a very easy winner of the German St Leger and a Group 1 last Autumn by 8L and 10L respectively although both wins came on very soft ground so for that reason alone is passed over here on today’s sounder surface.   WESTOVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 15:45 A valuable class 2 handicap for four year old and upwards, run over 10F has attracted a field of ten which gives it a good each way feel with some firms paying four places. John & Thady Gosden’s Honiton proved he was better than his seasonal re-appearance (when hating the soft ground) at Goodwood when pushed out to win by 1 1/4L at Newmarket on much better ground a fortnight later under today’s pilot James Doyle though has been raised 4lb for that win and is drawn out wide. He has every chance and has to be on anyone’s short list but back in fourth that day at Newmarket was William Knight’s Dual Identity who was visibly dropped out the back from the start by Jamie Spencer and made up ground to finish 2 1/2L behind Honiton and with a one pound drop is now 5lb better off and with a more positive ride from Neil Callan from an inside berth can make up the deficit on the Gosden horse and looks great each way value. A big outsider who is worth keeping an eye in is the Richard Spencer trained The City’s Phantom who may have needed his seasonal re-appearance when friendless in the market going off at 66/1 and running accordingly. He’s better than that and having been dropped 3lb finds himself on the same mark as when a 6L winner at Yarmouth 14 months ago. Top weight Savvy Victory arrives in good form under Ryan Moore although this will be his highest ever mark whilst Bad Company (5th last year) needs softer conditions. Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ won a similar handicap on his seasonal re-appearance at York’s Dante meeting (his first since wind surgery) and with only a 2lb rise is another with claims although they did all finish in a bit of a heap that day with one of today’s rivals Majestic only a length behind and 2lb better off. A tight handicap but I feel that Dual Identity is building up to something and should be backed each way with firms paying that fourth place although it has to be noted that Knight is looking for his first winner for 119 days and 36 runs although he has a couple of runner ups in his last five runners so hopefully his turn is near.   DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is will she handle this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week). I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly. David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double figure odds and possibly hit the frame.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor     All odds accurate at time of writing.    
  10. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    Welcome to the Forum @brahmin -good luck with your bets today 
  11. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    The first of two cracking days racing at Epsom with two Group Ones on todays card with the Oaks set to be run at 16:30 (as long as those pesky Animal Rising idiots don’t have a say) and the Coronation Cup at 15:10. The ITV cameras are there for the first five races with the ground likely to ride good although the course has been very well watered in the last week.   Epsom 14:00 We start the two day Derby fixture with the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. With the race on the turning track it’s advantageous to be drawn low although a look back to last year’s race shows you can be competitive from a high draw. Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and saddles two interesting runners in Haatem who impressed when winning at Bath last time and can be competitive although my preference is for The Camden Colt who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He made all when winning at Haydock on fast ground eight days ago and if he can get over from stall 7 appears to hold every chance. The form of both Balon D’Or and Bobsleigh has been let down whilst Yorkshire Terrier would have been high on my shortlist but for his draw position of 12 of 12. He’s made all to win two all weather races and with Oisin Murphy on top can run well if overcoming that coffin box. I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Lidster’s, who is an under rated trainer, Land Lover runs very well from stall 1. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th (beaten 4 1/2L) on his racecourse debut at York in a £15k race and with improvement likely and a nice draw is worth a small each way saver with the main bet being The Camden Colt under Ryan Moore.   THE CAMDEN COLT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 LAND LOVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:35 A competitive 13 runner 1M 113 yard class 2 handicap is up next with the David O’Meara trained Rhoscolyn, owned by The Horse Watchers a very interesting contender. He’s been dropped another couple of pounds putting him 8lb lower than when running third at Royal Ascot last year and showed enough last time out to suggest his time is near. The George Boughey trained All The Kings Men is tried in first time blinkers and going up in trip which may well suit this William Buick ridden five year old. Charlie Johnstone saddles two with claims in Dutch Decoy (ridden by Neil Callan) who’s dropped below his last winning mark and Austrian Theory (Joe Fanning) who’s also dropped to a winning mark and showed enough last time to suggest he can run well. His latest win came at Hamilton a year ago when defeating Ghaly (who’s won both his races since and is now 13lb higher) and can go close. The ground isn’t soft enough for Hodler whilst top weight Revich who comes here following a recent win at Chester was runner up in this race last year but is up 6lb for Chester which puts him on his highest ever handicap mark. He should run well none the less. A tricky race which I’ve narrowed down to Rhoscolyn and Austrian Theory with the latter having the call.   AUSTRIAN THEORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:10 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby distance of 1M 4F and featuring four Group one winners with the odd one out the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who arrives in top,form having won both of his starts since a break including last time out at Chester in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes who can’t be dismissed either. John and Thady Gosden’s smart filly Emily Upjohn makes her re-appearance after apparently coming to hand slowly. She was an unlucky loser of last years Oaks on this day and ended last season winning the Group 1 Champion Fillies & mares at Ascot. She’s smart and can be competitive as long as she doesn’t pull too hard. Last year’s Derby 3rd (and possibly unlucky not to get closer having had a poor run in the race) and Irish Derby winner Westover is the most likely winner to my eyes and certainly wasn’t disgraced when runner up to the very smart Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Ralph Beckett’s four year old will be ridden by Rob Hornby who will feel he has unfinished business after last year’s unlucky passage in the Derby and can take the spoils. Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane shouldn’t be dismissed as a classic winner (St Leger from 2021) and impressed last time when bouncing back from a poor run at Newbury but I must admit I am a bit concerned with the form of some of the stable who certainly aren’t firing on all cylinders with just the 4 winners from their last 33 runners going into Thursday. The fifth member of the field is the German trained Tunnes who was a very easy winner of the German St Leger and a Group 1 last Autumn by 8L and 10L respectively although both wins came on very soft ground so for that reason alone is passed over here on today’s sounder surface.   WESTOVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 15:45 A valuable class 2 handicap for four year old and upwards, run over 10F has attracted a field of ten which gives it a good each way feel with some firms paying four places. John & Thady Gosden’s Honiton proved he was better than his seasonal re-appearance (when hating the soft ground) at Goodwood when pushed out to win by 1 1/4L at Newmarket on much better ground a fortnight later under today’s pilot James Doyle though has been raised 4lb for that win and is drawn out wide. He has every chance and has to be on anyone’s short list but back in fourth that day at Newmarket was William Knight’s Dual Identity who was visibly dropped out the back from the start by Jamie Spencer and made up ground to finish 2 1/2L behind Honiton and with a one pound drop is now 5lb better off and with a more positive ride from Neil Callan from an inside berth can make up the deficit on the Gosden horse and looks great each way value. A big outsider who is worth keeping an eye in is the Richard Spencer trained The City’s Phantom who may have needed his seasonal re-appearance when friendless in the market going off at 66/1 and running accordingly. He’s better than that and having been dropped 3lb finds himself on the same mark as when a 6L winner at Yarmouth 14 months ago. Top weight Savvy Victory arrives in good form under Ryan Moore although this will be his highest ever mark whilst Bad Company (5th last year) needs softer conditions. Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ won a similar handicap on his seasonal re-appearance at York’s Dante meeting (his first since wind surgery) and with only a 2lb rise is another with claims although they did all finish in a bit of a heap that day with one of today’s rivals Majestic only a length behind and 2lb better off. A tight handicap but I feel that Dual Identity is building up to something and should be backed each way with firms paying that fourth place although it has to be noted that Knight is looking for his first winner for 119 days and 36 runs although he has a couple of runner ups in his last five runners so hopefully his turn is near.   DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is will she handle this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week). I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly. David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double figure odds and possibly hit the frame.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor     All odds accurate at time of writing.    
  12. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Brahmin in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    just found this site, look knowledgeable and my bets are football ( btts & o/u goals) and USA sports ( thru USA work colleague )......so my horse bets are limited like the big 2 days Epsom meeting with top class racing..........soooo my bets are 50pts staked
     
    2.00   The Camden Colt   6/1 betfair    10pt win
    2.00   Valour and Swagger  12/1 betfair 4 places  5pt EW
     
    2.35   Hodler   16/1 betfair 4 places   5pt EW
     
    3.45     Savvy Victory     8/1 betfair  3 places    5pt EW
     
    4.30    Heartache Tonight     33/1 betfair    3places    5pt EW
     
     
    Good luck all today racing                 
     
  13. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    Test trial at Epsom Monopoly money 
    2.35 Fantastic Fox 5/1
    3.45 Marhaba The Champ 8.53 rating Majestic 8.51 rating 
  14. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    Epsom. 
    Single 
    3.10. Westover     9/4    2nd 
    Good luck all. 
  15. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    Patent. 
    1.20. Chep. Passing Time         10/3      2nd 
    5.45. Epsm. Clochette                11/2   unpl
    8.15. Another Run                       11/2    2nd 
    stk. 3.50       rtn 149.50.
    Good luck all. 
  16. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Libby48 in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    Epsom 14:35  Alrehb 33/1 
  17. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    Epsom dash 
    Clarendon house  9.0 9/1 
    Silkie wilkie    8.9  12/1 
    Mountain peak  8.3 
    Came from dark   8.3 
    Vintage clarets   8.2 
    Very competitive race ....top 2 are a little clear ....no surprise to see any of these 5 in mix up but I'll try 10pt ew top 2 😃
    Tricasts all 5
  18. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June   
    I've backed 2021 winner & 4th last year MOKAATIL 14/1eway sky bet ( 7 places ) via the horses for courses system in the dash . 👎 Lpoked like the claimer on board had a hard time dealing with the course .
  19. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Epsom Oaks -Friday 2nd June   
    Epsom
    Single
    3.10. Westover          9/4
    Good luck all
     
  20. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Zilzalian in Epsom Oaks -Friday 2nd June   
    Biggest problem with this years Oaks is there is almost no form on the ground, pretty much all the form has been on soft or heavy so this is a no race for me, very small stakes advised. Any horse in this could improve massively for the ground, I see no world beaters in this lot to be honest but here are the figures based on what we know.
    1 Running Lion           124         5/1
    2 Soul sister                118         9/4
    3 Eternal Hope            114       11/1
    best outsider-
    Bright Diamond          103        66/1
  21. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Epsom Oaks -Friday 2nd June   
    The 3rd classic of the year is the Oaks, which is run at Epsom this Friday at 14.30. The race is for 3-year-old fillies and is run over 1 mile, 4 furlongs and 6 yards. It is the 2nd oldest of the classics, after the St Leger. It is named after The Oaks, an estate located to the east of Epsom.
     
    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
    The key stat is fitness. Those horses that last ran less than 26 days ago have a record of 7 wins from 51 runs, recording a level stakes profit at BSP of 111 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 45 runs with a loss of 39 points.
    It is helpful to be drawn low. Those drawn in the lowest 4 stalls have 5 wins from 31 runs with a profit of 114 points.
    Horses that finished 1st last time have a poor record with 4 wins from 41 runs and a loss of 8 points.
     
    2 horses meet these criteria
     
    SEA OF ROSES 66/1
    BRIGHT DIAMOND 66/1
     
    There is not much each way value so I suggest backing these to win.
    The only negative is that outsiders have a poor record so I recommend keeping stakes relatively small.
    Andrew Balding, the trainer of SEA OF ROSES, won this 20 years ago with Casual Look in his 1st year of training, however the last 9 races have been won by either Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden.
  22. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from kensland in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    The first of two cracking days racing at Epsom with two Group Ones on todays card with the Oaks set to be run at 16:30 (as long as those pesky Animal Rising idiots don’t have a say) and the Coronation Cup at 15:10. The ITV cameras are there for the first five races with the ground likely to ride good although the course has been very well watered in the last week.   Epsom 14:00 We start the two day Derby fixture with the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. With the race on the turning track it’s advantageous to be drawn low although a look back to last year’s race shows you can be competitive from a high draw. Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and saddles two interesting runners in Haatem who impressed when winning at Bath last time and can be competitive although my preference is for The Camden Colt who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He made all when winning at Haydock on fast ground eight days ago and if he can get over from stall 7 appears to hold every chance. The form of both Balon D’Or and Bobsleigh has been let down whilst Yorkshire Terrier would have been high on my shortlist but for his draw position of 12 of 12. He’s made all to win two all weather races and with Oisin Murphy on top can run well if overcoming that coffin box. I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Lidster’s, who is an under rated trainer, Land Lover runs very well from stall 1. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th (beaten 4 1/2L) on his racecourse debut at York in a £15k race and with improvement likely and a nice draw is worth a small each way saver with the main bet being The Camden Colt under Ryan Moore.   THE CAMDEN COLT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 LAND LOVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:35 A competitive 13 runner 1M 113 yard class 2 handicap is up next with the David O’Meara trained Rhoscolyn, owned by The Horse Watchers a very interesting contender. He’s been dropped another couple of pounds putting him 8lb lower than when running third at Royal Ascot last year and showed enough last time out to suggest his time is near. The George Boughey trained All The Kings Men is tried in first time blinkers and going up in trip which may well suit this William Buick ridden five year old. Charlie Johnstone saddles two with claims in Dutch Decoy (ridden by Neil Callan) who’s dropped below his last winning mark and Austrian Theory (Joe Fanning) who’s also dropped to a winning mark and showed enough last time to suggest he can run well. His latest win came at Hamilton a year ago when defeating Ghaly (who’s won both his races since and is now 13lb higher) and can go close. The ground isn’t soft enough for Hodler whilst top weight Revich who comes here following a recent win at Chester was runner up in this race last year but is up 6lb for Chester which puts him on his highest ever handicap mark. He should run well none the less. A tricky race which I’ve narrowed down to Rhoscolyn and Austrian Theory with the latter having the call.   AUSTRIAN THEORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:10 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby distance of 1M 4F and featuring four Group one winners with the odd one out the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who arrives in top,form having won both of his starts since a break including last time out at Chester in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes who can’t be dismissed either. John and Thady Gosden’s smart filly Emily Upjohn makes her re-appearance after apparently coming to hand slowly. She was an unlucky loser of last years Oaks on this day and ended last season winning the Group 1 Champion Fillies & mares at Ascot. She’s smart and can be competitive as long as she doesn’t pull too hard. Last year’s Derby 3rd (and possibly unlucky not to get closer having had a poor run in the race) and Irish Derby winner Westover is the most likely winner to my eyes and certainly wasn’t disgraced when runner up to the very smart Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Ralph Beckett’s four year old will be ridden by Rob Hornby who will feel he has unfinished business after last year’s unlucky passage in the Derby and can take the spoils. Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane shouldn’t be dismissed as a classic winner (St Leger from 2021) and impressed last time when bouncing back from a poor run at Newbury but I must admit I am a bit concerned with the form of some of the stable who certainly aren’t firing on all cylinders with just the 4 winners from their last 33 runners going into Thursday. The fifth member of the field is the German trained Tunnes who was a very easy winner of the German St Leger and a Group 1 last Autumn by 8L and 10L respectively although both wins came on very soft ground so for that reason alone is passed over here on today’s sounder surface.   WESTOVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 15:45 A valuable class 2 handicap for four year old and upwards, run over 10F has attracted a field of ten which gives it a good each way feel with some firms paying four places. John & Thady Gosden’s Honiton proved he was better than his seasonal re-appearance (when hating the soft ground) at Goodwood when pushed out to win by 1 1/4L at Newmarket on much better ground a fortnight later under today’s pilot James Doyle though has been raised 4lb for that win and is drawn out wide. He has every chance and has to be on anyone’s short list but back in fourth that day at Newmarket was William Knight’s Dual Identity who was visibly dropped out the back from the start by Jamie Spencer and made up ground to finish 2 1/2L behind Honiton and with a one pound drop is now 5lb better off and with a more positive ride from Neil Callan from an inside berth can make up the deficit on the Gosden horse and looks great each way value. A big outsider who is worth keeping an eye in is the Richard Spencer trained The City’s Phantom who may have needed his seasonal re-appearance when friendless in the market going off at 66/1 and running accordingly. He’s better than that and having been dropped 3lb finds himself on the same mark as when a 6L winner at Yarmouth 14 months ago. Top weight Savvy Victory arrives in good form under Ryan Moore although this will be his highest ever mark whilst Bad Company (5th last year) needs softer conditions. Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ won a similar handicap on his seasonal re-appearance at York’s Dante meeting (his first since wind surgery) and with only a 2lb rise is another with claims although they did all finish in a bit of a heap that day with one of today’s rivals Majestic only a length behind and 2lb better off. A tight handicap but I feel that Dual Identity is building up to something and should be backed each way with firms paying that fourth place although it has to be noted that Knight is looking for his first winner for 119 days and 36 runs although he has a couple of runner ups in his last five runners so hopefully his turn is near.   DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is will she handle this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week). I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly. David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double figure odds and possibly hit the frame.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor     All odds accurate at time of writing.    
  23. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Villa Chris in Epsom Oaks -Friday 2nd June   
    The Oaks is only just over a week away and with all the trials done and dusted it seems a good time to have a look at the historic race afresh. With just two declaration stages remaining we have 24 three year old fillies still left in the race which will e’ll be run at Epsom over 1M 4F on 2nd June. Here’s my horse by horse analysis with an ante post suggested bet.   ASHTANGA Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade A soft ground Nottingham maiden winner as a two year old she was beaten out of sight by current favourite Savethelastdance at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks and it would be a major surprise were she to figure. Current odds: 100/1   BE HAPPY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of nine Aiden O’Brien runners still in the race. Ran well on re-appearance when third in Group 3 in France and ran to same level when runner up to Godolphin’s Eternal Hope in the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather. Bit to find with the principals.   BLUESTOCKING Trainer: Ralph Beckett Looked useful when winning at Salisbury on her debut back in September and wasn’t disgraced on re-appearance when going down by a head to Aiden O’Brien’s Warm Heart in Newbury’s listed Oaks trial last weekend over 10F. This race may come a bit soon and Royal Ascot is probably more likely her target.   BOOGIE WOOGIE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Was 2 1/2L behind her stablemate and current favourite Savethelastdance in a maiden on her re-appearance at Leopardstown and subsequently broke her duck on her next start at Naas. Upped in grade when her limitations were exposed in running 6th of 10 in the 10F Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. Current odds: 50/1   BRIGHT DIAMOND Trainer: Karl Burke Best run as a juvenile came when third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, beaten 5 3/4L by Commissioning. Easy to back and a bit disappointing when only 5th in Lingfield Oaks Trial behind Eternal Pearl and Be Happy only run since. Needs to step up from that effort to have a place chance. Current odds: 50/1   CAERNARFON Trainer: Jack Channon Ran well on her re-appearance when 4th (beaten 10 1/2L) to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. That was over a mile and on breeding there has to be serious doubts as to whether she’ll stay this trip of 1M 4F. Current odds: 50/1   CLOUDBREAKER Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Only rated 83 and was behind Bluestocking at Newbury last week. Would be better off going down the handicap route and is a no hoper. Current odds: 100/1   DANCE IN THE GRASS Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Went off at 200/1 when running a respectable 5th (beaten 11 1/2L) in 1000 Guineas on her re-appearance. Plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she should improve for stepping up in trip. Could outrun her odds with stamina now drawn out. Current odds: 40/1   EMPRESS WU Trainer: David Simcock Lingfield all-weather maiden winner as a juvenile. Was found out when stepping up in grade in the Musidora Stakes at York when finishing last but one of the eight runners, beaten 9 1/2L by Soul Sister. Unlikely to bridge that gap and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   ETERNAL HOPE Trainer: Charlie Appleby A lightly raced improving Teofilo filly who’s yet to race on turf. She improved from a maiden win at Chelmsford to winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather surface by 1 3/4L from Be Happy. Has to be supplemented to run here at a cost of £85,000.   HEARTACHE TONIGHT Trainer: David Menuisier A half sister to the stables Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and has shown plenty of ability of her own in three starts in France. The best effort coming when 4th, beaten 1 1/2L, in Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. The step up in trip will suit but has only raced on soft ground. Her trainer has stated she’s unlikely to run on good fast ground. If getting her conditions she’s no 40/1 chance. Current odds: 40/1   INFINITE COSMOS Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Was well supported when winning her maiden at the Newmarket Guineas meeting and was well backed once more when stepping up in grade to run in the Musidora Stakes at York when going down by 4 1/2L to Soul Sister. Extra furlong and a half should suit but hard to envisage her turning tables on the winner that day. Current odds: 12/1   JACKIE OH Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Dam was first past the post in 1000 Guineas so classically bred. Only run the twice, winning a 1M Naas maiden on soft ground in March and runner up in listed company at Navan the following month. One of 9 Aiden O’Brien possibles but will need to step her game up to feature here. Current odds: 33/1   MAMAN JOON Trainer: Richard Hannon Owned by Amo Racing and has had just the one career start when running the impressive Gather Ye Rosebuds to 9 1/2L in a Newbury 10F maiden on soft ground in April. The winner was put in her place in the Musidora and that form is hardly good enough. Current odds: 50/1   MEDITATE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of the best two year olds around last season winning 5 of her 7 starts including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. Went off second favourite in 1000 Guineas when only 6th to Mawj beaten 11 1/2L. Up half a mile here and unlikely to stay and an unlikely runner. Current odds: 66/1   NEVER ENDING STORY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Group 3 winner at Leopardstown in April and wasn’t totally disgraced when 5th in French 1000 Guineas last weekend, beaten only 5L. Yet to race beyond a mile though there’s stamina on both sides of her pedigree so may appreciate stepping up in distance now. Each way claims. Current odds: 16/1   POLLY POT Trainer: Ben Pauling Winner of the Group 2 May Hill Stakes as a juvenile for the now retired Harry Dunlop. Has since joined predominantly jumps trainer Ben Pauling in the Cotswolds but shown very little in two starts (1000 Guineas & Newbury Oaks Trial) and may not have trained on. Current odds: 100/1   RED RIDING HOOD Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien filly who broke her maiden at Dundalk on the sand in April at 2/7. Wore first time blinkers when third, beaten 3/4L in 10F Group 3 at Naas at beginning of month so has plenty to find. Current odds: 66/1   RICH Trainer: Richard Hannon Beaten in Brighton handicap on penultimate outing and has an official rating of only 87. Total no hoper. Current odds: 200/1   RUNNING LION Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Won her last four starts (three on the all weather) and took her form to another level when an easy winner of the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. She came home 4 1/2L to the good that day from Sumo Sam, who’s been beaten since at odds on so it may not have been the strongest renewal of that race. Connections aren’t sure whether she’ll stay 1M 4F and question marks hang over her for that reason. Current odds: 7/1   SAVETHELASTDANCE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed a Leopardstown maiden win on soft ground (form worked out well) with a staggering 22L victory in the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground. Visually very impressive and must go very close here as long as there’s some cut in ground. Interestingly her part owner Paul Smith was saying afterwards they think she will be even better on better ground. No value in the price now but massive chance. Current odds: 11/8   SEA OF ROSES Trainer: Andrew Balding Runner up in a Group 3 in France on re-appearance prior to finishing 7 3/4L 5th of 8 in Musidora behind Soul Sister. Has a bit to find on that run and would only hold a small place chance. Current odds: 50/1   SOUL SISTER Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Obviously hated the soft ground at Newbury on re-appearance (also apparently resented wearing a cross noseband) when finishing plum last of twelve beaten some 22L but turned in a much improved run when winning the Musidora Stakes at York when always travelling well on the better ground on the near side and running out a 4L winner (Infinite Cosmos, Sea Of Roses & Empress Wu all behind and looking held). The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue and holds a major chance. Current odds: 3/1   UNLESS Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Finally broke her maiden at Naas last week winning by 2 1/2L at their seventh attempt. Only rated 89 and unlikely to be troubling the judge. Current odds: 50/1   WARM HEART Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Galileo filly who stepped up from her Leopardstown maiden victory when winning the listed 10F Newbury Oaks trial by a head from Bluestocking last week. Extra 2F shouldn’t be an issue and holds each way claims as long as this race doesn’t come too soon. Current odds: 14/1   This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and if, as looks likely, the ground rides on the better side next weekend she could be vulnerable especially at her current odds. I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick of the current prices. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly whilst Infinite Cosmos looks comfortably held by the selection. Were the ground to turn soft then David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight would be worth backing each way at around the 40/1 but she is very ground dependent.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365   My Epsom Derby thoughts can be found here:-  https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/183371-epsom-derby/  
  24. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    The first of two cracking days racing at Epsom with two Group Ones on todays card with the Oaks set to be run at 16:30 (as long as those pesky Animal Rising idiots don’t have a say) and the Coronation Cup at 15:10. The ITV cameras are there for the first five races with the ground likely to ride good although the course has been very well watered in the last week.   Epsom 14:00 We start the two day Derby fixture with the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. With the race on the turning track it’s advantageous to be drawn low although a look back to last year’s race shows you can be competitive from a high draw. Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and saddles two interesting runners in Haatem who impressed when winning at Bath last time and can be competitive although my preference is for The Camden Colt who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He made all when winning at Haydock on fast ground eight days ago and if he can get over from stall 7 appears to hold every chance. The form of both Balon D’Or and Bobsleigh has been let down whilst Yorkshire Terrier would have been high on my shortlist but for his draw position of 12 of 12. He’s made all to win two all weather races and with Oisin Murphy on top can run well if overcoming that coffin box. I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Lidster’s, who is an under rated trainer, Land Lover runs very well from stall 1. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th (beaten 4 1/2L) on his racecourse debut at York in a £15k race and with improvement likely and a nice draw is worth a small each way saver with the main bet being The Camden Colt under Ryan Moore.   THE CAMDEN COLT 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 LAND LOVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 14:35 A competitive 13 runner 1M 113 yard class 2 handicap is up next with the David O’Meara trained Rhoscolyn, owned by The Horse Watchers a very interesting contender. He’s been dropped another couple of pounds putting him 8lb lower than when running third at Royal Ascot last year and showed enough last time out to suggest his time is near. The George Boughey trained All The Kings Men is tried in first time blinkers and going up in trip which may well suit this William Buick ridden five year old. Charlie Johnstone saddles two with claims in Dutch Decoy (ridden by Neil Callan) who’s dropped below his last winning mark and Austrian Theory (Joe Fanning) who’s also dropped to a winning mark and showed enough last time to suggest he can run well. His latest win came at Hamilton a year ago when defeating Ghaly (who’s won both his races since and is now 13lb higher) and can go close. The ground isn’t soft enough for Hodler whilst top weight Revich who comes here following a recent win at Chester was runner up in this race last year but is up 6lb for Chester which puts him on his highest ever handicap mark. He should run well none the less. A tricky race which I’ve narrowed down to Rhoscolyn and Austrian Theory with the latter having the call.   AUSTRIAN THEORY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 15:10 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby distance of 1M 4F and featuring four Group one winners with the odd one out the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who arrives in top,form having won both of his starts since a break including last time out at Chester in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes who can’t be dismissed either. John and Thady Gosden’s smart filly Emily Upjohn makes her re-appearance after apparently coming to hand slowly. She was an unlucky loser of last years Oaks on this day and ended last season winning the Group 1 Champion Fillies & mares at Ascot. She’s smart and can be competitive as long as she doesn’t pull too hard. Last year’s Derby 3rd (and possibly unlucky not to get closer having had a poor run in the race) and Irish Derby winner Westover is the most likely winner to my eyes and certainly wasn’t disgraced when runner up to the very smart Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Ralph Beckett’s four year old will be ridden by Rob Hornby who will feel he has unfinished business after last year’s unlucky passage in the Derby and can take the spoils. Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane shouldn’t be dismissed as a classic winner (St Leger from 2021) and impressed last time when bouncing back from a poor run at Newbury but I must admit I am a bit concerned with the form of some of the stable who certainly aren’t firing on all cylinders with just the 4 winners from their last 33 runners going into Thursday. The fifth member of the field is the German trained Tunnes who was a very easy winner of the German St Leger and a Group 1 last Autumn by 8L and 10L respectively although both wins came on very soft ground so for that reason alone is passed over here on today’s sounder surface.   WESTOVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 15:45 A valuable class 2 handicap for four year old and upwards, run over 10F has attracted a field of ten which gives it a good each way feel with some firms paying four places. John & Thady Gosden’s Honiton proved he was better than his seasonal re-appearance (when hating the soft ground) at Goodwood when pushed out to win by 1 1/4L at Newmarket on much better ground a fortnight later under today’s pilot James Doyle though has been raised 4lb for that win and is drawn out wide. He has every chance and has to be on anyone’s short list but back in fourth that day at Newmarket was William Knight’s Dual Identity who was visibly dropped out the back from the start by Jamie Spencer and made up ground to finish 2 1/2L behind Honiton and with a one pound drop is now 5lb better off and with a more positive ride from Neil Callan from an inside berth can make up the deficit on the Gosden horse and looks great each way value. A big outsider who is worth keeping an eye in is the Richard Spencer trained The City’s Phantom who may have needed his seasonal re-appearance when friendless in the market going off at 66/1 and running accordingly. He’s better than that and having been dropped 3lb finds himself on the same mark as when a 6L winner at Yarmouth 14 months ago. Top weight Savvy Victory arrives in good form under Ryan Moore although this will be his highest ever mark whilst Bad Company (5th last year) needs softer conditions. Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ won a similar handicap on his seasonal re-appearance at York’s Dante meeting (his first since wind surgery) and with only a 2lb rise is another with claims although they did all finish in a bit of a heap that day with one of today’s rivals Majestic only a length behind and 2lb better off. A tight handicap but I feel that Dual Identity is building up to something and should be backed each way with firms paying that fourth place although it has to be noted that Knight is looking for his first winner for 119 days and 36 runs although he has a couple of runner ups in his last five runners so hopefully his turn is near.   DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234   Epsom 16:30 This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is will she handle this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week). I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly. David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double figure odds and possibly hit the frame.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor     All odds accurate at time of writing.    
  25. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to calva decoy in Racing Chat - Friday 2nd June   
    I tend to back previous distance winners in the Oaks & the Derby .
    In the Oaks I've backed ETERNAL HOPE 14/1 Sky ( 4 places ) only distance winner in the field , way down on ratings . horse hated the course . 👎
    ARREST in the Derby for me though will keep eye on prices .
    Local trainer Jim Boyle has 4 running today , all but 1 previous course or course & distance winners always a plus point here which some horses loathe .
    2.35 HODLER 11/1 ( 4 places ) 👎
    3.45 BAD COMPANY 11/1 ) 4 places ) 👎
    5.45 MARLAY PARK 13/2 ( 4 places ) 3rd 8/1 with Boyle's other horse Secret Strength 4th at 33/1 .
    will price later , all each way .
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