The Brigadier
-
Posts
825 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
26
Posts posted by The Brigadier
-
-
17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.
Well done Michael, you're certainly in very good form - what a gamble - take a bow sir
-
The 48 hour declarations for this race will be out tomorrow morning but I think there's a bit of value which should be snapped up now. Heading the weights and currently the ante-post favourite is Cloudy Glen who was so impressive winning the Southern National last Sunday at Fontwell but I am led to believe he's unlikely to take up this engagement coming so soon. Pobbles Bay and Midnight Tune are two dyed in the wool stayers who must have chances but its towards the bottom of the weights that I'm looking with Nigel Hawke's ALMINAR will relish conditions and has had a nice run at Cheltenham 4 weeks ago when 3rd to Bermeo who has franked the form by going on to finish runner up at the Paddy Power meeting 3 weeks later. Devon trainer Hawke had a winner at Uttoxeter last weekend and his Nikap ran 2nd this afternoon at Warwick so we have no issues with trainer form. The capable David Noonan comes in for the ride and he's worth backing now before the final field is known tomorrow.
1 point e/w @ 16/1 unibet
-
15 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
For those who like a fav (which i very rarely do) 11:00am Chantilly tomorrow Fabre runs one called Midtown it is now 10/11 from 5/4. this animal didn't come off the bridal last time (first time out) winning by an easy 7l. I am forecasting great things next year for this Godolphin 2yo. Even suggesting it could turn up in our Guineas/Derby. Max bet for me this.
Can't believe i got 5/4 on midtown it went off and wins at 1/3. one for the notebooks horse this lads/lass's.
Mind you there will be a rule 4 of 15p as the second fav didn't go but still a good return and well spotted - he certainly looks one to follow on that sort of ground
-
8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I notice that BUSHYPARK's only win was in Ireland on going described as Yielding to Soft. I must admit the going descriptions confuse me a bit in Ireland, they have good to yielding, yielding and yielding to soft, does anybody know what the GB equivalents are.
I now what you mean Michael ! I agree with Villa Chris that yielding equals good to soft in British going speak.
-
-
Ffos Las and Warwick are the afternoon jumping fixtures but it’s the all weather meeting at Kempton that I see with the better betting opportunities, especially the 2yo contests.
Andrew Balding’s 2yo’s always improve plenty for their first run and his NAPPER TANDY (4.55 Kempton) looks the best bet under the lights at the Sunbury-On-Thames track.
He was green on his debut when coming wide off of the final bend at Lingfield to chase down Rewired, who went on run a cracker in a decent Class 2 Newmarket nursery. He’s well related in that he is a half brother to Balding’s winner Lorelina and despite a far from ideal draw of 11 of 14 expect him to go forward and take what looks on paper a very winnable median auction race. Hugo Palmer’s Mused is the early mover and the likely danger.
2 points win @ 15/8 bet365
Talking of the draw there brings me onto a Sir Michael Stoute runner BAY BRIDGE (5.55 Kempton) who has drawn 14 of 14 and that may well be factored into his price. The New Bay colt ran with promise on his debut when placing 3rd in a soft ground Yarmouth novice stakes. He wasn’t knocked about that day and the step up a furlong will definitely suit. We just need jockey Ryan Moore to weave some of his magic to get across from that draw (we’ll probably know our fate after a couple of furlongs!). Likely favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Rebel’s Romance who won at Newcastle on his debut with the 2nd that day filling the same position behind the promising Gosden colt Mithras since. He’s also drawn relatively high and has to shoulder a 7lb penalty – he’ll be hard to beat but I’ll take him on with Bay Bridge. There are newcomers from the Gosden, Varian, Beckett & Haggas stables but you can’t beat experience which they don’t have as yet.
1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365
Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin operation could be back in the winners enclosure with his LAW OF NATURE (6.25 Kempton) who was a bitter disappointment on his debut on very soft ground at Newmarket on his debut trailing in 12th of 13 beaten some 8 ½ lengths. He was backed into favouritism that day and is a lot better for sure. The main danger of those that have raced is John Gosden’s Daddy Frank who nearly caught Appleby’s Komachi at Newcastle on his debut. I’m not entirely sure that that form is that strong with both the 3rd and 4th beaten since, anyway he’ll certainly make the market for our boy.
1 point each way @ 9-2 bet365
KHUZOOM (6.55 Kempton) has been off the track for nearly exactly a year when just touched off in the corresponding race and I’m told that trainer Roger Varian has got plenty of work into him and is expecting a winning re-appearance. He was ultra impressive when winning by 7 lengths over the course and distance prior to that second and has the All-weather Finals early next year as a target. William Haggas’s Johan comes here in winning handicap form and along with Ralph Beckett’s Kinross who takes a drop in class rate the biggest dangers.
2 point win @ 9/4 bet365
-
Good pick DanV89 - as you say seen stronger rides ?
-
Replayed on RacingTV at 7.15 this evening - watch out for last years 4th in the Ladbroke Handicap Chase Beware The Bear working all over the 14lb officially superior Santini ?
-
5 hours ago, alancraik said:
Todays selections
only one today, scored 5 races but only one qualifier
FAKENHAM 14:33 Midnights Gift 9/4 winGood pick there - won nicely in the end. An Alan King double, a trainer to follow at the moment
-
5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
A system that is working quite well for me is based on horses younger than 7 that haven't run for 4 weeks or more in a handicap. There is one horse that matches the criteria in the 3.03 at Fakenham, Gold Fields. Currently available at 20/1 it may be worth an each way punt as there are 8 runners in the race.
Well done that man ????????
what a lovely price as well -
If you're lucky enough to be in front of your TV's now Racing Tv are showing some very interesting gallops including the likes of Altior, Santini and Paisley Park.
If you don't have a subscription don't worry as its free to air.
-
Fingers crossed the dead 8 all run ?
-
The big race of the weekend may well be Lostintranslation taking on Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock but from a punting view the race which takes the eye is the Betfair Exchange Stayer’s Handicap Hurdle.
A field of 24 declared at the five day stage and with more rain forecast throughout the week the current ground conditions of soft can only go one way – a typical Haydock quagmire in store I feel.
Some big names have won this prestigious contest throughout the years including Sam Spinner and Paisley Park and this year’s weights are headed by top chaser Kalashnikov who will surely struggle at 3m if taking his chance.
The most intriguing runner in the field has to be Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man who absolutely bolted up in the Troytown Handicap Chase last time and reverts to hurdles here but off of a 14lb higher mark – he wont mind the conditions that’s for sure and with his trainer mooting earlier in the week a possible tilt at the Stayers Hurdle he would be one to have on your shortlist.
David Pipe has an excellent record in this race having won it 3 times in the last 10 with Grand Crus, Dynaste and Gevrey Chambertin and relies upon the remarkable Main Fact who has won 8 races on the bounce (5 hurdles and 3 on the level). The ground cannot be soft enough for him and although he’s yet to race beyond 2m 4f his style of running suggests he’ll even appreciate stepping up in trip as he only ever seems to get going at the finish of his races. He was some buy at a mere £6,000 out of Dianne Sayer’s stable, winning 8 of his 9 races since amassing £62,00 in prize money alone. He’s a worthy favourite and if he was to triumph here the 50/1 about him winning the Stayers Hurdle with bet 365 would look some value. Pipe also has Duc De Beauchene in the race and owned by legendary JP McManus is also very interesting. He landed a punt at the Open meeting at Cheltenham last season and although he disappointed subsequently he remains a dangerous horse off of bottom weight (he does have an alternate entry on Sunday at Uttoxeter)
Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge comes here in good form having won at Carlisle last time but has to race off of a career high mark of 140 and that might be his undoing.
Fergal O’Brien is having a tremendous season so far and his novice Imperial Alcazar comes here as one of the well backed favourites following two novice hurdle victories last season though his best effort came when a neck runner up to chasing sensation Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Years Day . He steps up in trip and his mark looks workable for sure.
Portrush Ted is obviously a hard horse to train as he has only raced 8 times over the last 4 seasons but his record following a break of 87 days or more is excellent (12111) He stays well and handles the mud so could be a player here.
Irish raider Relegate has raced only 3 times for Colm Murphy having been transferred from Willie Mullins’ yard and was outclassed last time. He’s 2lb lower now than when going off favourite for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March and finishing 5th.
Olly Murphy runs two with Collooney having to prove his stamina and I K Brunel reverting back to the smaller obstacles after two runs in novice chases this Autumn. The Murphy yard seem out of sorts at the moment with a mere 2 winners from the last 45 runners so this pair are easily overlooked.
Cill Anna and Highland Hunter represent Paul Nicholls with preference for the former who ran well up to the last at Wincanton on his reappearance and will appreciate the softer ground.
Summary:-
Main Fact is still improving and could be yet another winner of this contest for his trainer David Pipe despite running at this trip for the first time.
The best outsider may be Warren Greatrex’s Portrush Ted who has a terrific record fresh and appeals as one who could go well
Main Fact 1 point each way 7/1 Paddy Power
Portrush Ted ½ point each way 16/1 888 Sport
-
Tuesday's racing is quite moderate to say the least but there are plenty of winners to be found and a winner at Fakenham on a wet Tuesday in November pays the same as a winner at Cheltenham in March!
Lingfield fell foul to the elements this afternoon leaving just the jumpers at Fakenham and flat racing on the fibre-sand at Southwell and Newcastle's twilight meeting.
Nicky Henderson has a terrific record at Fakenham with an excellent 37% strike rate at the track (66 winners from 177 runners). He runs three there tomorrow with Go Chique the most interesting to me. A Southwell bumper winner in early September she was disappointing on her hurdles debut when pulling too hard eventually finishing 5th. In hindsight that may not have been too poor a run as the winner Perfect Myth is now 19lb higher following a win and two 2nds , the second Aggy With It has won both races since whilst the 3rd Mrs Hyde has also won twice since including beating Verdana Blue at Wetherby. I am told that the horse has schooled well since and she should go well although I do worry the way she pulled throughout last time.
Champagne Terri and Timetoroe both have to carry 6lb penalties and the one I want to be with is Alan King's hurdling debutant MIDNIGHT GINGER (1.33 Fakenham) who has an absence to overcome but as a Newbury bumper winner and listed race 4th should be good enough here. Her trainer said in a recent trainer file in the Racing Post that she had been held up having 'thrown a curb' (yes I know I had to google that one! apparently its inflamation of the hock).He also called her very likeable.
1 point win @ 15/8 Bet365
The best bet on the card at Newcastle is Sir Michael Stoute's SAMOOT (4.15) who picked up an injury when running 3rd in a Sandown maiden back in August (2nd won since) and I'm told has done plenty of work since and will be hard to beat although she is likely to be well found in the market.
At a better value price TEESCOMPONENTSFLY (3.40 Newcastle) looks decent each way value to turn the tables on favourite Eagles Foot who beat him 1 1/2 lengths over course and distance 35 days ago. Both were having only their 4th ever run and 1st at the trip though watching the race again I think it's fair to say that Eagle Foot had the run of the race that day.
Teescomponentsfly will be 3lb better off with top apprentice Ray Dawson taking another 3lb off so effectively 6lb better here.
The remainder in the race are all fairly exposed and this may well be fought out by the two 3 year olds and with some forms paying 4 places the value lies with an each way bet on David Barron's Shirocco gelding.
1 point each way @ 7/1 Paddy Power
- The Equaliser, yossa6133, vikki37 and 2 others
-
5
-
A mixed bag of racing today with two soft ground late season Flat meetings at Newbury and Doncaster and day 2 of Cheltenham’s showcase meeting plus Kelso (NH) and Chelmsford (AW) – something for everyone today!
OSCA LOCA (5.00 Cheltenham) could be well handicapped on her handicap debut for Welsh trainer Tim Vaughan. The 7 year old mare has come through the Irish pointing system, having comfortably won two points in Feb 2019 prior to a easy hunter chase win at Cork two months later beating a horse that has won twice since. Following a 536 day absence she joined Vaughan and ran an eye catching 6th in a half decent novice hurdle at Chepstow a fortnight ago where the trip was woefully too short. That will have primed her up for this Amateur riders handicap chase today and the capable Jack Andrews (17 wins from 162 rides in last 5 years) takes the ride. Her year older full sister Clondaw Castle is now rated 149 so Osca Loca's initial mark of 115 could be very workable to say the least.
As you would expect for a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers including Lillington who will be ridden by Liam Trott on only his 4th ever ride, Jens Boy who has plenty of ability but apparently quirks to go with it. The same can also be said about David Pipe’s representative Buster Edwards. Call Me Vic should be thereabouts now being trained by point-to-point trainer Sally Randall’s other half Fergal O’Brien though he is rising 14 years old now (the horse not Fergal!).
1 point each way 8/1 (PP/Skybet/Betway) 1/5th odds 4 places
GOODBYE DANCER (3.15 Cheltenham) is worth a speculative each way bet with the firms paying enhanced place terms. Paddy Brennan has been fasting to get down to his minimum weight to ride local trainer Fergal O’Briens bottom weight off of 10 stone here. He’s hard to fancy on his two mid Summer runs when he failed to beat a rival (dropped 5lb for those two defeats) but he is a very well handicapped horse on his two runs here this last season. He looked the likely winner when crashing out at the last on New Years Day and despite being 1lb out of the handicap can race off of a 8lb lower mark here. That fall may have left its mark as he hasn’t shown much since but I’m hoping the return to the scene of his last win may spark him up to run well at a big price. Any rain that may fall at Prestbury Park will be in his favour.
There’s plenty of dangers with last year’s winner Tobefair heading the weights off of a 3lb higher mark with Tom Lacey’s Nevilles’s Cross who bolted up last time already well backed and sure to be thereabouts.
1/2 point each way 16/1 (Skybet) 1/5th odds 6 places
The day’s big flat contest is sponsored by racehorse owner and DJ (it’s not often you can band those two words together!) John Dance’s company Vertem and it looks a good renewal. Favourite and well backed is Aiden O’Brien’s Dewhurst runner up Wembley who represents his trainer from seven entered at the six day declaration stage. He sets the standard but obviously has been well found in the market. Charlie Appleby’s One Ruler impressed when winning the Autumn Stakes on soft ground at Newmarket from the worst of the draw on the same card as Wembley and looks sure to run well.
A horse I’ve been waiting to run is KING VEGA (3.55 Doncaster) following two highly promising seconds at Sandown on good ground. He was a tad unlucky when runner up in the Solario Stakes to Etonian last time coming from some way back and looking clueless. I’m told he’s a much more polished horse now and the initial quotes of 16/1 with Ladbrokes were quickly taken earlier in the week. His trainer Andrew Balding took this last year with subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Kameko when the race was run on the all weather at Newcastle and once again champion jockey Oisin Murphy is in the saddle. Being by Lope De Vega he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the prevailing soft ground and looks good each way value at around 6/1.
1 point each way 6/1 (Skybet) 1/5th odds 4 places
-
Ascot finish their 2020 flat season with the 10th Champions Day which will be run on testing soft ground with the likes of Stradivarius, Magical and Palace Pier looking to end their term with victories.
Hollie Doyle has had a sensational season breaking her own yearly winner total earlier in the week with 117 winners so far. She has a big chance of securing her first Group 1 success with DAME MALLIOT (2.30 Ascot). Hollie won on her at Newmarket in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes back in July and was a highly credible 3rd in the Prix Vermeille on Arc trials day. Behind her that day were rivals Wonderful Tonight, Laburnam and Even So and she can confirm the form. It will be an emotional win not only for Hollie but as trainer Ed Vaughan is leaving the training ranks for financial reasons and ironically the first prize here of just short of £200k would be his biggest win.
Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara has an excellent record in the Balmoral handicap (4.15) having won it twice and had two placed in the eight runners he’s saddled in the prestigious handicap’s 6 year history so his two runners are of significance this year. The one I’m most interested in is ORBAAN who will be ridden by stable jockey Daniel Tudhope and is only 3lb higher than his York win in July. An ex Andre Fabre inmate he’ll have no problem with the soft ground and looks the best value in a race full of dangers headed by the pair of improving 3 year olds Raaeq and Tempus who head the market. Last year’s winner O’Meara’s Escobar was drawn 20 (although they did race on the inside track then) so I’m hopeful that Orbaan’s stall number 20 will be ideal.
The National Hunt season is becoming more interesting by the day and the best bet over the sticks is Nigel Twiston Davies’ TEMPLEHILLS (2.53 Stratford) who looks thrown in off of only 120 (113 if taking the more than capable Jack Savage’s claim into account). He was a smart chaser for Twiston Davies two seasons back winning at Warwick off of 137 and at one stage being as highly rated as 144. Having lost his form he was acquired by Jonjo O’Neil and showed little for him in four runs the following season before re-joining his former trainer off of a very winnable mark. He’s won after a break and should be ready to fire today. This doesn’t look the strongest of handicap chases with Frankly Du Berlais winning over hurdles last time and the biggest threat possibly coming from Keiran Burke’s Everlanes who was progressive last season and his trainer has been amongst the winners recently
- Tumbleweed King, Zico10 and vikki37
-
3
Racing Chat - Wednesday 18th 2020
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
great work with Nakadam - lovely price as well