K8a

The problem is that Djokovic spent way too much time on the court yesterday.

IMO I see a clear win from Novak. 7-5/6-4

So your bet is Fokina?

Don't worry, @darko08. Crap like that happens.

I didn't check the weather for today and it was a rookie move. The little rain made the balls too heavy for Schwartzman. Obviously it wasn't a problem for FAA. 

Schwartzman to beat FAA at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Karatsev to beat Medvedev at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Goffin to beat Delbonis at 1.70 with Pinnacle
I know Schwartzman hasn't been playing well recently and I even backed Karatsev against him in Madrid but I expect him to do well here. The conditions here are much better for him. He reached the Final in 2020 and he even beat Nadal in straight sets. FAA has good results on clay but Schwartzman is better player on this surface. FAA has played a tough match against Krajinovic (6-3, 6-7, 6-4) in his first round here. I also take Karatsev cause Medvedev played worse than I expected in Madrid and the conditions here are worse for him so I don't expect him to do well here. Finally, I also take Goffin (vs Delbonis). I know Delbonis has been playing well recently but he has played too many matches. He has played 8 matches in the last 10 days and some of them have been really long matches. Goffin has won against Caruso in 2 sets in his only match played here and he will be more fresh than Delbonis.

Well, we'll have yet another Masters in Rome, then a small break before the French Open. Rome is way slower than Madrid, so a better estimate for the French Open.

Yeah, I mean if you have to find a bet there, it's probably the overs. Perhaps a slight lean on Barty, but that's reflected in the odds anyway.

Thoughts on Barty vs Sabalenka. ? For some reason I find it extremely close and similar to last tournament final. Over 21.5 seems very tempting .

Yes, I like that he's finally posted a bet, so that we're now all on the same footing.

Let's not get personal here, guys. Picks and tennis only! 

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2.06 with Pinnacle
It's always tricky to bet on players that need to travel quickly after finishing finals in the previous week, but the gap in class is decent enough here imo. Popyrin has made it through the qualifiers, but he could've easily lost against Coria and he wasn't too convincing against Cazaux either. Struff had a high level last week in Munich and I think he can get another win here. If he didn't have to travel at short notice, he would be way shorter here and I'm willing to take the risk at these odds.

So, Madrid continues for both men and women. Good luck everyone!
Fabio Fognini to beat Carlos Taberner at 1.74 with Pinnacle
I will risk Fognini yet again, hopefully with the same positive result. He was disqualified last time out, but he should care about such a big tournament as this one. He can play better than Taberner, who must be a bit tired after playing a physically tiring match against Thompson and then a mentally taxing one against the talented Italian youngster. I'd have Fognini closer to 1.57 here myself.

I think that hasn't been decided yet, pending various appeals.

I presume that's for 2-0, otherwise that'd be a huge price!

Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5 sets) to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1.80 with Pinnacle
 
I did not like Kasatkina 's performance in her last two matches. She made too much unforced errors  against Begu but won some critical points then she saw second round.I dont think that Kasatkina is in her top form.
On the other hand, Aryna Sabalenka was very good in her last match. Big serves.  Big plays. Her serves are much better than Kasatkina's serves. I believe that she will break Kasatkina's serves in rows.
H2H stat shows Sabalenka won 2-0 in this surface. I expect same score for this match.
 
Good luck !

Ramos - Davidovich Fokina 2 @1.63
Young Spaniard plays excellent this week, he had tougher opponents than Ramos. Andujar, Chardy and Humbert in road to semifinal. H2H is 1:1, all on clay courts; Davidovich Fokina won last match in 2019 Genova challenger. He shows more variety in his shots and is more reliable on his serve and I think this could be deciding in this probably close match.
 
Ivashka - Struff 1 @1.56
Struff is playing very good tennis at home tournament in Munich, but semifinal should be his final match here. Yesterday he won though match against Krajinovič - 3h, faced 13 BP on his serve. Ivashka plays very good on Europe clay, last week he took a set from Nadal in Barcelona. He is very good server, in Munich he defeated McDonald, who came from qualifiers with some nice wins. Yesterday Ivashka prepared ´´big suprise´´ knocking out Zverev, 1st seed of tournament. Zverev was serving for match at 7:6 5:4, but Ivashka showed all his talent and turned match around. If he plays like that today, Struff won`t have a chance.
 
Olivo (+1.5 set HC) - Rinderknech 1 @1.75
Olivo, former 78. player from ATP ranking, came to european clay in good form. He eliminated Miedler, Tabilo and Etchevery. He had approximately 11 BP in every match, which led him to pretty easy wins. Rinderknech had a good tournament in Belgrade , losing to Kecmanovic in R16. Here in Ostrava he plays worse in every match. He had troubles against Schnur, who is far from good clay player. Yesterday Klein had advantage of 3:0 and 0:30 on the Frenchman serve in third set, but Klein offered him another chance with errors. He won only 62% points on his serve. Rinderknech won H2H match 6:4 7:6, but I think today we will see different outcome, also win @3.00 is worth trying.

Thanks for the input @mark22 and good luck! I agree that Rinderknech has declined a bit. Please try to include the bookmakers next time as well.

Ivashka to beat Alexander Zverev at 3.50 with bet365
Ruud to win the ATP Munich at 3.25 with bet365
Ruud plays today against Millman and he's a massive favorite for this match (1.12). Then, he will play against Basilashvili or Gombos (LL) so he will be a big favorite, too. In the Final he will play against Sasha/Ivashka/Krajinovic/Struff. 
I also think there's value on Ivashka considering how impressive he has played recently. He destroyed Pedro Martinez and Fokina in Marbella and he even took a set from Rafa in Barcelona after destroying Cressy, Gaio and Griekspoor. I know Sasha plays home and he has won here a couple of times but this is a minor tournament and we know that the motivation is not the same. The negative part with this bet is the number of matches that Ivashka has played in the last month...

@888888 Yeah, Pegula is vastly more talented and has been pretty much steamrolling the opposition this year, oftentimes better opposition than Cirstea as well. I'd probably slightly lean on Pegula, but she's rather unproven on clay and first matches can be tricky.

Agree that Rublev is a beast. But I think Nadal was also not really at his best, and was making lots of uncharacteristic errors. I wouldnt be surprised if there's some form of a repeat of last year, when Nadal lost to Schwartzman in Rome and then destroyed him at the French Open. If this loss raises the price for Nadal to win Roland Garros over 3.0, I'm taking it.

Yeah, that was obviously crushing as well, by no means should that have lost! @AgaRadwanska
Can't see anything today, not many matches either. Good luck if you're getting involved and Happy Easter to everyone on the forum!

Opinions on Korda v Rublev? 
I fancy the straight set victory for the American at 9.00(!). It's ridiculous how high it is. Vamos Seb!