Zilzalian

Bit of ew profit yesterday 2yo speed figures. Todays 2yo Queen Mary stakes there is only a couple of points between 10 of them.
so ew bets at prices are a good option
1 beautiful sunshine 119           18/1
2 Yet                          118 (aw) 12/1
3 Coup de force        118           100/1
Additional speed ratings - Windsor castle stakes, proviso=you take a view on the ward runners as they dont equate very well but appear moderate.
1 Dig two 129 (aw) 124 turf      15/2
2 Barging through    128           16/1 from 33's
3 Chipotle                 128-         25/1

my speed figures for the Coventry.
        Angel Blue                 125          33/1
       Dhabab                     122+          5/1
       Vintage Clarets          120           28/1

my speed figures for the Coventry.
        Angel Blue                 125          33/1
       Dhabab                     122+          5/1
       Vintage Clarets          120           28/1

my speed figures for the Coventry.
        Angel Blue                 125          33/1
       Dhabab                     122+          5/1
       Vintage Clarets          120           28/1

my speed figures for the Coventry.
        Angel Blue                 125          33/1
       Dhabab                     122+          5/1
       Vintage Clarets          120           28/1

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)
Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)
 

I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.

I actually looked into some research on the "improve from 2 to 3" theory, its actually very rare as most horses improve with each other. the only improvement that seems to show up is ie when a 3yo that never encountered soft ground at two improves due to soft ground at 3, and the rarer reverse occurrence. this was backed up by my 2yo speed figures which seemed to need no 3yo additions to remain consistent from 2-3  i saw someone suggest they think snowfall is a good bet for the Arc "12/1" well good luck with that one. Serpentine won the derby well, did it win again? i would prefer to believe snowfall won a very very poor oaks (something i said on here before the race) And I quote myself, "looks like an ordinary listed handicap to me". and i am not too sure the derby today was much better. The winner was given a peach of a ride, with a poor horse coming 2nd.

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)
Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)
 

Here is a question given Snowfalls demolition job, was that pretty poor oaks? (look to snowfalls form)
Also an opinion for newcomers to the sport to consider. I rarely back O'Brien horses and never short price ones. Because i don't believe 1 word that comes out of his mouth. (again look at his form)
 

Derby Day! The unexpected rain fall on Friday morning/afternoon took many, myself included by surprise but it does seem that its dry from then on in and the ground for Saturday is likely to ride on the slow side. Here’s my early thoughts on the day’s seven races. 
Epsom 2.00
King Frankel was runner up in the London Cup to a potential Group horse in Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge though he has been raised 6lb for being beaten 4L and although that race is normally a good yardstick to future success has yet to been tested so although he must have a sound chance I’ll rather be with the form credentials of the Ralph Beckett trained Patient Dream who won here at the April meeting over 1m and should relish the step up 2F here with his dam a winner over 12F. He’s been shunted up 7lb for that success but the firm has worked out remarkably well with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th all winning since!. Add in the factor of a low draw and the booking of champion jockey Oisin Murphy and I feel we have ourselves a decent bet. 
PATIENT DREAM 2 points each way @  4/1 1/5th 123 BetVictor
Epsom 2.35
The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes can go the way of the Martyn Meade trained three year old Statement who ran a stormer on his re-appearance when just beaten in a head bobbing finish by the smart Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling at Newbury. That form has worked out nicely with the winner and third finishing 5th and 6th in the 1000 Guineas and 4th Primo Bacio impressively winning the Michael Seeley Memorial race at York. Statement went on herself to finish a credible 8th (beaten 6L) in the 1000 Guineas and getting weight from the older mares looks the likeliest winner here under David Egan. The likes of Maamora, Posted and Nazuna all hold chances on the form book but we know how good they are and this may well go to an improver. 
STATEMENT 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365
Epsom 3.10
Century Dream won this in 2018 on his only run at the track and is the highest rated horse in the race. Crisford’s classy 7 year old is best when the mud is flying and connections would of been over the moon to have seen the rain that fell on Friday and will be hard to beat. Bell Rock is stepping up in grade though has a chance .Sir Michael Stoute runs Maximal who has numerous Group 1 entries this Summer. The only three year old in the field he’s shown up well on both his starts this season in finishing runner up to two smart sorts in Hurricane Lane and El Drama. Drying ground would have been right up his street as all his relations thrived when encountering fast ground but the ground has maybe gone against him and in favour of Century Dream and with James Doyle in the plate can  take this Group 3 Cazoo Diomed Stakes run over 9F and 13 yards. 
CENTURY DREAM  3 points win @3/1 BetVictor
 
Epsom 3.45
The Dash Handicap run over one of the fastest 5F in the land is a sight to see and once again there is a maximum field of 20 going to post. The draw is a strange one as it always used to be the low numbers on the far side that had the call but there has been times in recent years when it’s totally flipped and high have come out on top. Personally I would prefer a low number and in an open handicap my pin has fallen on the 2019 winner Ornate who flashed home from stall 2 that year off of a handicap mark of 99 and races here today off of 98 so David C Griffith’s 7 year old could be well treated. He teed up for this with a credible 8th of 11 in listed company last Saturday in the race won by Kings Lynn at Haydock and will appreciate the better ground here today. Shop around with the bookmakers with William Hill paying 6 places and Skybet 7 places. His regular pilot Phil Dennis is in the saddle. 
ORNATE 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/4th 12345 Bet365
 
Epsom 430
This year’s Cazoo Derby has attracted 12 quality colts going for glory over 1m 4F of this unique track. Aidan 0’Brien throw a curve ball when announcing that he will only be running just the one in Bolshoi Ballet. The last time he was represented by just a sole challenger was when Bolshoi Ballet’s sire Galileo won 20 years ago. He’s unbeaten in two trials in Ireland this season and is undoubtably the most likely winner but at around 5/4 and many firms paying extra places it may be wise to look elsewhere for some each way value. Mac Swiney brings classic winning form to the table having won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time and as dual Group 1 winner in heavy ground connections would of been delighted to have seen the rain that fell during Friday. He’s stepping up to 1m 4F for the first time and trained by the maestro Jim Bolger can run a big race. Godolphin saddle three with the pick being Hurricane Lane who won the traditionally best Derby trial, the Dante at York last time. He looks sure to run well stepping up in distance. The William Haggas trained Mohaafeth was an easy winner of a listed race at Newmarket last month. This represents a big step up in grade, his form has yet to be tested and he would of been the pick if the rain hadn’t arrived as he’s a better horse on genuine fast ground. With extra places around with bookmakers the best value looks to be Mac Swiney Each Way. 
MAC SWINEY 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 Boylesports
 
Epsom 5.15
The key piece of form to un ravelling this handicap appears to be the City And Surburban Handicap run over course and distance back in April. Group One Power won that by 3/4L from Soto Sizzler and has since gone on to run well when runner up to Louganini at Ascot. He has a solid chance but it’s the runner up that day Soto Sizzler that appeals to me on 4lb better terms. He has an excellent record at the track with form figures of 112 including this event 2 years ago and maybe he just didn’t stay 1m 6F last time when flopping at Newmarket. Trained in West Sussex by David Menuisier he will be ridden by Oisin Murphy who won him here back in April 2019 and looks decent each way value. Top weight Lost Eden is the least unexposed in the field but appears to have plenty of weight for his handicap debut. 
SOTO SIZZLER 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power
 
Epsom 5.50   The configuration of the track means that low numbers are always going to be favoured with the winning draw over the last 9 years coming from 4,7,10,6,7,4,15,4 and 5 so as you can see it maybe wise to concentrate on those drawn low. Top weight Danzeno is in stall 2 but we haven’t seen him for awhile and he’s overlooked. David Menuisier’s Atalanta’s Boy appeared better than ever when winning on his re-appearance at his favourite track Goodwood and although he’s racing off of his highest ever handicap mark here of 95 following a 4lb rise for that victory he’s favourably berthed in stall 6 and with his regular pilot Thomas Greatrex riding looks set to run a big race. There’s many others with chances and as always shop around for the firms paying extra places here in this 14 runner 86-105 sprint handicap that concludes this year’s Cazoo Derby meeting.   ATALANTA'S BOY 1 point each way 6/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill    

Hi Guys,
Many thanks for the tips - x 3 winners on a lucky 15 has made my day!
For a free site - this is fantastic...
 

Weather has made a mess of it for me i checked the going and the weather no mention of rain....just shows.
 

That unexpected ground change has made a bit of a mess of things, al aasy comes right into things now i just didnt fancy it on GF. Just shows you can check everything instead of acts of god.

I much respect @The Brigadier and the way he researches his races and draws his conclusions but an alternative viewpoint is always handy and we may get a few forecasts between us so here are my selections. prices at time of posting.
200 my speed figures suggest 1st Dusky Prince 6/1 2nd raging 8/1.
235 super fast last time out Storting 11/2
310 the fastest speed figure i have on my database for 1m4F is Japan 3/1 when it beat Slalom in France, anywhere near that will destroy this lot.
345 think i will go with CD form as this race are all much of a muchness which is the idea of handicaps so Data Protection 10/1
430 Not impressed with this lot for an Oaks looks more like an ordinary listed handicap to me but can see a Varian 1st & 2nd here Zeyaadah 11/2 seems a good option with Save the Forest a good each way option (backed at 66/1) now 33/1
510 get your darts out
5.40 Arigato 12/1 looks a sneaky bet at a good price.
Good luck people.

I much respect @The Brigadier and the way he researches his races and draws his conclusions but an alternative viewpoint is always handy and we may get a few forecasts between us so here are my selections. prices at time of posting.
200 my speed figures suggest 1st Dusky Prince 6/1 2nd raging 8/1.
235 super fast last time out Storting 11/2
310 the fastest speed figure i have on my database for 1m4F is Japan 3/1 when it beat Slalom in France, anywhere near that will destroy this lot.
345 think i will go with CD form as this race are all much of a muchness which is the idea of handicaps so Data Protection 10/1
430 Not impressed with this lot for an Oaks looks more like an ordinary listed handicap to me but can see a Varian 1st & 2nd here Zeyaadah 11/2 seems a good option with Save the Forest a good each way option (backed at 66/1) now 33/1
510 get your darts out
5.40 Arigato 12/1 looks a sneaky bet at a good price.
Good luck people.

I much respect @The Brigadier and the way he researches his races and draws his conclusions but an alternative viewpoint is always handy and we may get a few forecasts between us so here are my selections. prices at time of posting.
200 my speed figures suggest 1st Dusky Prince 6/1 2nd raging 8/1.
235 super fast last time out Storting 11/2
310 the fastest speed figure i have on my database for 1m4F is Japan 3/1 when it beat Slalom in France, anywhere near that will destroy this lot.
345 think i will go with CD form as this race are all much of a muchness which is the idea of handicaps so Data Protection 10/1
430 Not impressed with this lot for an Oaks looks more like an ordinary listed handicap to me but can see a Varian 1st & 2nd here Zeyaadah 11/2 seems a good option with Save the Forest a good each way option (backed at 66/1) now 33/1
510 get your darts out
5.40 Arigato 12/1 looks a sneaky bet at a good price.
Good luck people.

Thank you @Zilzalian for your kind words. This great sport of ours is all about opinions and its always refreshing listening to others. Good luck tomorrow.

I much respect @The Brigadier and the way he researches his races and draws his conclusions but an alternative viewpoint is always handy and we may get a few forecasts between us so here are my selections. prices at time of posting.
200 my speed figures suggest 1st Dusky Prince 6/1 2nd raging 8/1.
235 super fast last time out Storting 11/2
310 the fastest speed figure i have on my database for 1m4F is Japan 3/1 when it beat Slalom in France, anywhere near that will destroy this lot.
345 think i will go with CD form as this race are all much of a muchness which is the idea of handicaps so Data Protection 10/1
430 Not impressed with this lot for an Oaks looks more like an ordinary listed handicap to me but can see a Varian 1st & 2nd here Zeyaadah 11/2 seems a good option with Save the Forest a good each way option (backed at 66/1) now 33/1
510 get your darts out
5.40 Arigato 12/1 looks a sneaky bet at a good price.
Good luck people.

I much respect @The Brigadier and the way he researches his races and draws his conclusions but an alternative viewpoint is always handy and we may get a few forecasts between us so here are my selections. prices at time of posting.
200 my speed figures suggest 1st Dusky Prince 6/1 2nd raging 8/1.
235 super fast last time out Storting 11/2
310 the fastest speed figure i have on my database for 1m4F is Japan 3/1 when it beat Slalom in France, anywhere near that will destroy this lot.
345 think i will go with CD form as this race are all much of a muchness which is the idea of handicaps so Data Protection 10/1
430 Not impressed with this lot for an Oaks looks more like an ordinary listed handicap to me but can see a Varian 1st & 2nd here Zeyaadah 11/2 seems a good option with Save the Forest a good each way option (backed at 66/1) now 33/1
510 get your darts out
5.40 Arigato 12/1 looks a sneaky bet at a good price.
Good luck people.

better put yesyes the becket horse in your notebook.

Eileendover arguably should be odds on but is 9/4 at this time of writing due to the Becket horse being backed, well by all measure the Becket horse has got to be very special to beat the Sly horse which is the best 9/4 shot i have seen in a good while.

It was 11/1 on betvictor but i didn't back it as a single, just in a multiple and i had it as my nap on here mainly due to the fact i didnt fancy much else today at any decent prices. i like the charlton horse later now hes had a couple of winners and the 2 morrison horses are worth a look.

Sorry, I went out to an appointment.  At least it finished 3rd at 7/1 so I hope you backed it each way at bigger odds?  You can sometimes get much better odds on the Betfair Exchange but have to allow for either 2% or 5% commission depending on your set up with them
 

Blakeney point is going to think its his birthday carrying 9 stone 50/1????????????