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Zilzalian

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  1. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Saturday January 8th   
    Yeah 3:00 Sandown is the veterans race, looked long and hard and its a race i should leave well alone but i notice Dancing Shadow 25/1 (older than me) was close up to the half fancied in this wanderin star which is around 9/1 Dancing shadow rarely won but did manage to win over 4 miles so there is quite a bit to say for it at that price.
  2. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from azzybear in Racing Chat - Saturday January 8th   
    Yeah 3:00 Sandown is the veterans race, looked long and hard and its a race i should leave well alone but i notice Dancing Shadow 25/1 (older than me) was close up to the half fancied in this wanderin star which is around 9/1 Dancing shadow rarely won but did manage to win over 4 miles so there is quite a bit to say for it at that price.
  3. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday January 8th   
    Forgive me but does that make you 12 years old?
  4. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Looked at that beast then realised on the odds it was supposed be second string Hummed and ah'd said sod it, like you do. so well done fella.
  5. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Saturday January 8th   
    Yeah 3:00 Sandown is the veterans race, looked long and hard and its a race i should leave well alone but i notice Dancing Shadow 25/1 (older than me) was close up to the half fancied in this wanderin star which is around 9/1 Dancing shadow rarely won but did manage to win over 4 miles so there is quite a bit to say for it at that price.
  6. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in 2021 NAPS TABLE SUMMARY   
    I can agree with the AW angle, smaller population of horse (or was at one time) my speed figures hold up well year on year for aw but more accurate on the places than the win, although place betting or EW is something i rarely do.
  7. Thanks
    Zilzalian reacted to LEE-GRAYS in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    winner
    good old johnny murtagh lol
    +£168
    +£174 jan
    -£424 1st oct
  8. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to MCLARKE in 2021 NAPS TABLE SUMMARY   
    Unfortunately not. I only took over in December so don't have the previous months in my database.
    I suspect that it wouldn't be as good due to the break in racing because of Covid. From what I remember the returns in those months when players only had foreign racing to select from were quite poor.
  9. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in 2021 NAPS TABLE SUMMARY   
    Very interesting and well appreciated @MCLARKE Me being a cheeky nosey sod, have you got a 2020 table for comparison?
  10. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in NAPS - Friday 7th January   
    Amused lol
     
  11. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Sunday January 2nd   
    130 newcastle Venturous 20/1 bet365
  12. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Saturday January 1st   
    20/1 last night Aurora Thunder I'll take that all day long for a start to 2022
  13. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday January 1st   
    20/1 last night Aurora Thunder I'll take that all day long for a start to 2022
  14. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from Johnrobertson in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - December 2021   
    I must say. That's a cracking performance from @Johnrobertsonand @mickyftm32 In both comps.
  15. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - December 2021   
    I must say. That's a cracking performance from @Johnrobertsonand @mickyftm32 In both comps.
  16. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from bymatrix in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - December 2021   
    I must say. That's a cracking performance from @Johnrobertsonand @mickyftm32 In both comps.
  17. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - December 2021   
    I must say. That's a cracking performance from @Johnrobertsonand @mickyftm32 In both comps.
  18. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to The Equaliser in Racing Chat Friday 31 December   
    RESULTS UPDATE
    A case of seconditis seems to have spoilt my day today for profit.  My stakes were actually 15.5 pts as I counted Sir Oliver twice.  At least that won and showed a return of 10.23.  This meant a loss of 5.27 pts.  This made my December cumulative profit 42.52 and leaves my YTD figure at -190.65
    Some good classy racing at Cheltenham tomorrow
    REVIEW OF THE YEAR
    I think that the accumulated loss for the year was largely down to two factors.  Firstly, when I increased my betting bank I seem to be too free with my bets on longer priced selections and backed too many of them as well.  Not enough of them won so my losses accumulated.  The other factor was the Festival Bets.  I was tending to have a bet in all the races at the festival meetings.  I described these as fun bets. Of course, too many of them lost.
    Throughout the year I was focussing on various angles from Trainers to Jockeys and even looked at Timeform and Racing Post RPR ratings.  None of these proved to be worthwhile in providing regular profits.  
    It was September when I carried out an exercise in recording the tips of what I called the big 3 tipsters where they all tipped the same horse in a race.  These tipsters were Racing Post Spotlight; ATR and the Timeform selection. (The Oddschecker selection is always the same as the ATR selection, so doesn't count as an additional tip).  It was expected that these selections would be overbet and therefore would not make a regular profit unless one could incorporate additional factors to exclude ones that didn't win.  It was not my intention to do much work on any angle associated with the selections.  They didn't do too bad for September with a cumulative loss of 7.48 points.  I think that August was a bad month for them but I didn't keep a record of it and only started recording selections on about the 8th of August. What I found surprising was that despite the selections quite often being tipped up at cramped odds it was no easy task to back against them and find winners to make a profit either.  For example, I am pretty confident that say just dutching the 2nd and 3rd favourite against the big 3 selection would not have made a profit.  Horses at all kinds of prices seemed to win these races when the big 3 selection failed.  In conclusion, I found that it is not worth backing the big 3 selections unless one has some other angle on them in a race. However, if you want to go against them and have any chance of making a profit then you have to delve into the possibilities of the longer-priced horses.
    June through to August I was betting way too much on my selections.  It was only at about September time I started to cut back on my staking.  September was a flat month but I gained about £100 in October.  This was largely down to putting up a Trixie with a small number of supporting single bets.  I felt that I was doing better but my YTD figures were constantly dragging me down.  I decided to switch to a "points" staking method in November. This enabled me to report on my monthly results as well as bring forward the YTD cumulative figure.  I feel that this is the best way for anyone to record their bets and results.  It is quite heartwarming to see a monthly profit of over 42 points when I compare this with the so-called red hot tipsters out there who boast smaller profits and try and get punters sucked into their dubious selection methods.
    I will continue into the New Year with my Trixies and some singles bets in an effort to build up a decent cumulative profit.  These days I focus more on the highest class races of the day and horses that have shortened up in price overnight or favourites that have held their price well too.  At least I am in tune with what is going on in the market as at the time I do a comparison which is any time from 10 am onwards.  It would be great to do this right up to the start time of a race but it's impractical for my Trixie bets. Professionals who only make single bets could well benefit from this process. 
    I wish PL members a happy, healthy, and very prosperous New Year

  19. Haha
    Zilzalian got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th   
    Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
    1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
    2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
    3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
    4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
    5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
    So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.
  20. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to MCLARKE in CHRISTMAS TIPSTERS COMPETITION - LEADERBOARD   
    Yes, I had missed a 4/1 winner on day 1 so I amended it before I published the day 2 table.
  21. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th   
    Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
    1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
    2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
    3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
    4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
    5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
    So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.
  22. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from fd1972uk in Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th   
    Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
    1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
    2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
    3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
    4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
    5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
    So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.
  23. Haha
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th   
    Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
    1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
    2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
    3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
    4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
    5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
    So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.
  24. Haha
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th   
    Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
    1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
    2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
    3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
    4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
    5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
    So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.
  25. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from Nigwilliam in Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th   
    Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
    1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
    2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
    3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
    4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
    5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
    So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.
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