Racing Chat Friday 31 December

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie and a couple of singles today so far

1.05 War Sandy Brook 11/4

1.15 Lin Mobashir 9/4

1.50 Lin Follow Your Heart 13/8

4 pt win Trixie = poss return 62.54 pts

1.15 Lin Animal Instinct 2 pts win at 4/1

1.50 Lin Sir Oliver 2 pts win at 5.3

8 points staked

1.40 War Hamilton Dici 2/1

2.05 Uttx No Word Of A Lie 11/4

2.37 Uttx Do IT For Thy Sen 4/1

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss Return of 101.25 pts

Singles

1.50 Lin Sir Oliver 2 pts win at 5.2

2.37 Uttx Graces Order 2 pts win at 6.8

An extravagant 16 points staked today

Good luck to all having a punt on the last day of the year

Edited December 31, 2021 by The Equaliser
additional bets

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

One Trixie and a couple of singles today so far

1.05 War Sandy Brook 11/4

1.15 Lin Mobashir 9/4

1.50 Lin Follow Your Heart 13/8

4 pt win Trixie = poss return 62.54 pts

1.15 Lin Animal Instinct 2 pts win at 4/1

1.50 Lin Sir Oliver 2 pts win at 5.3

8 points staked

1.40 War Hamilton Dici 2/1

2.05 Uttx No Word Of A Lie 11/4

2.37 Uttx Do IT For Thy Sen 4/1

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss Return of 101.25 pts

Singles

1.50 Lin Sir Oliver 2 pts win at 5.2

2.37 Uttx Graces Order 2 pts win at 6.8

An extravagant 16 points staked today

Good luck to all having a punt on the last day of the year

Trixies not going well.  At least Sir Oliver won for me.  I feel that I have to put a bet on Do It For Thy Sen just in case it wins

Hence 1.50 pts win on Do It For Thy Sen at 4/1 in the 2.37 at Uttx

= 17.5 pts staked today

 

 

[MCLARKE]

NH selection

Uttoxeter 3.40

TIME FOR HOLLIE 7/2

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Lingfield 3.25

THAKI 11/4

This system is based on horses that ran more than 20 days ago. Further criteria are no female horses, age less than 7 and distance not 5 furlongs 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Trixies not going well.  At least Sir Oliver won for me.  I feel that I have to put a bet on Do It For Thy Sen just in case it wins

Hence 1.50 pts win on Do It For Thy Sen at 4/1 in the 2.37 at Uttx

= 17.5 pts staked today

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

A case of seconditis seems to have spoilt my day today for profit.  My stakes were actually 15.5 pts as I counted Sir Oliver twice.  At least that won and showed a return of 10.23.  This meant a loss of 5.27 pts.  This made my December cumulative profit 42.52 and leaves my YTD figure at -190.65

Some good classy racing at Cheltenham tomorrow

REVIEW OF THE YEAR

I think that the accumulated loss for the year was largely down to two factors.  Firstly, when I increased my betting bank I seem to be too free with my bets on longer priced selections and backed too many of them as well.  Not enough of them won so my losses accumulated.  The other factor was the Festival Bets.  I was tending to have a bet in all the races at the festival meetings.  I described these as fun bets. Of course, too many of them lost.

Throughout the year I was focussing on various angles from Trainers to Jockeys and even looked at Timeform and Racing Post RPR ratings.  None of these proved to be worthwhile in providing regular profits.  

It was September when I carried out an exercise in recording the tips of what I called the big 3 tipsters where they all tipped the same horse in a race.  These tipsters were Racing Post Spotlight; ATR and the Timeform selection. (The Oddschecker selection is always the same as the ATR selection, so doesn't count as an additional tip).  It was expected that these selections would be overbet and therefore would not make a regular profit unless one could incorporate additional factors to exclude ones that didn't win.  It was not my intention to do much work on any angle associated with the selections.  They didn't do too bad for September with a cumulative loss of 7.48 points.  I think that August was a bad month for them but I didn't keep a record of it and only started recording selections on about the 8th of August. What I found surprising was that despite the selections quite often being tipped up at cramped odds it was no easy task to back against them and find winners to make a profit either.  For example, I am pretty confident that say just dutching the 2nd and 3rd favourite against the big 3 selection would not have made a profit.  Horses at all kinds of prices seemed to win these races when the big 3 selection failed.  In conclusion, I found that it is not worth backing the big 3 selections unless one has some other angle on them in a race. However, if you want to go against them and have any chance of making a profit then you have to delve into the possibilities of the longer-priced horses.

June through to August I was betting way too much on my selections.  It was only at about September time I started to cut back on my staking.  September was a flat month but I gained about £100 in October.  This was largely down to putting up a Trixie with a small number of supporting single bets.  I felt that I was doing better but my YTD figures were constantly dragging me down.  I decided to switch to a "points" staking method in November. This enabled me to report on my monthly results as well as bring forward the YTD cumulative figure.  I feel that this is the best way for anyone to record their bets and results.  It is quite heartwarming to see a monthly profit of over 42 points when I compare this with the so-called red hot tipsters out there who boast smaller profits and try and get punters sucked into their dubious selection methods.

I will continue into the New Year with my Trixies and some singles bets in an effort to build up a decent cumulative profit.  These days I focus more on the highest class races of the day and horses that have shortened up in price overnight or favourites that have held their price well too.  At least I am in tune with what is going on in the market as at the time I do a comparison which is any time from 10 am onwards.  It would be great to do this right up to the start time of a race but it's impractical for my Trixie bets. Professionals who only make single bets could well benefit from this process. 

I wish PL members a happy, healthy, and very prosperous New Year

[MCLARKE]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

NH selection

Uttoxeter 3.40

TIME FOR HOLLIE 7/2

Won. BSP 5.32

10 / 20, lsp + 9.89

[Bang on]

16 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

REVIEW OF THE YEAR

I think that the accumulated loss for the year was largely down to two factors.  Firstly, when I increased my betting bank I seem to be too free with my bets on longer priced selections and backed too many of them as well.  Not enough of them won so my losses accumulated.  The other factor was the Festival Bets.  I was tending to have a bet in all the races at the festival meetings.  I described these as fun bets. Of course, too many of them lost.

You seem to have reached some conclusions and turned your betting around, hope it continues. We all like big priced winners but very few can be found without inside information IMO. My biggest price winner of 2021 was 40/1 which I had a good EW  bet on, it won and made my week.

I did some time back do a review of S.P.'s of the winners etc, which seemed to show 75 - 80 % of winners coming at 6/1 or less. For this reason I started to concentrate on 2/1 - 6/1 in the betting (for most if not all). Good luck in 2022.

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Bang on said:

You seem to have reached some conclusions and turned your betting around, hope it continues. We all like big priced winners but very few can be found without inside information IMO. My biggest price winner of 2021 was 40/1 which I had a good EW  bet on, it won and made my week.

I did some time back do a review of S.P.'s of the winners etc, which seemed to show 75 - 80 % of winners coming at 6/1 or less. For this reason I started to concentrate on 2/1 - 6/1 in the betting (for most if not all). Good luck in 2022.

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  I now tend to focus on horses in a race up to a maximum price of 9/1 (10%) as I understand that is where most winners come from.  No doubt @MCLARKEhas some stats to support whether 6/1 or 9/1 is where most winners come from.  If it is 75% for up to 6/1 & 85%  up to 9/1 it may be worthwhile to eliminate 7/1 - 9/1.  I do remember reading one leading author's thoughts which were that to find the occasional outsider to back in a race is good handicapping however to look for one in every race is a disease.  Maybe there is something in that.

Very best of luck fro 2022 to you too