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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    Racing chat -Friday 20th May

    in At The Races

    Posted

    5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    I'd probably be worse ....someone who follows me is constantly  reminding me how often my 4th rated wins or places 🤣I think for tricasts it def needs 4th ...I'm thinking about dropping the forecasts and just covering tricasts to keep costs down as its the singles that make the profit ...and the tri casts are a shot at a big payout for small money ....jury still out though 

    It may make a significant difference over the year, as an avid fc tc merchant might i suggest you keep careful records of your bets, its tedious on top of rating but well worth it long term. for info only, i often drop the shortest price runner in my top 3 or four rated especially in small stakes fc and tc's.

    Racing chat -Friday 20th May

    in At The Races

    Posted

    1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

    710 curr 

    Fastar   8.2  20.0 

    Imposing supreme  8.2 16/1 

    Half nuts        7.7 4/1 

    Godhead     7.3 

    Tough handicap .....but joint top rated here and bookies go 12/1 best fastar but there's 20.0 win only on betfair so I'll take that ....imposing supreme has his conditions 7f on soft so I'd hope for a decent run .....let's play 

    Fastar 4pt win 20.0 

    Imposing supreme 3pt ew 16/1 

    12x .5 forecasts .

    24 x 10p tricasts 

     

    Im a little curious about something and that is this. If you just stuck to your top 3 in fc & tc's =12 bets @ lets say 3pt wins instead of the 36 @ say 1 point wins, going off ur past results would you be better off or worse off?

    NOTEBOOK HORSES 2022

    in At The Races

    Posted

    On 5/18/2022 at 6:27 PM, calva decoy said:

    Runs at Sandown in Listed Thursday at 7.15 currently 9/4 but has the Queen's horse to & King Edward V11 current favourite to beat . 

    3rd 8L behind the two joint favourites didn't have the quality over the last 1f 👎

    Not sure what form Varians horses are in to be honest hes not doing as well as he usually does thats for sure so maybe it is better than it showed plus, that was a tricky pair to take on maybe he just finding its level.

    NOTEBOOK HORSES 2022

    in At The Races

    Posted

    SUMMARY/UPDATE

    Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run 3rd Run
    18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3 lost
    18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost  
    01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep)    
    16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep)    
    18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova      
    19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code      
    26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost    
    28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb      
    29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)    
    30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors      
    13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm      
    13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan      
    14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer      
    17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent      

    NOTEBOOK HORSES 2022

    in At The Races

    Posted

    2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    I'll have a word with Haggas for you to place in a more competitive race next time out .

    The horse improved & has some fancy entries but on last night's watch , I'd be avoiding , was a struggle .

    We can't know what the sp is or the race is going to be when we see one of these notebook horses so a win is a win. i think the back next three races for a "spot" is not a bad philiosophy unless like you say you wasn't impressed with the 1st run.

    Jim crowley ride today on ehraz

    in At The Races

    Posted

    On 5/14/2022 at 8:10 PM, Pete garlick said:

    Does anyone have an opinion on Jim Crowleys ride today in the first race at Newbury on Ehraz can't understand his decision making. 

    have long had issues with Crowley he had 4 winners at ascot one day and arguably cocked up on his easiest ride which was Mohaather. I admit i speak from my pocket because on this occasion it cost me 18 grand but i had reservations before that and although i dont like to get involved with arguments (like has been said it can happen to anybody) about jockeys riding but some do leave a lot to be desired and with Crowley for me it happens too often same with Spencer and a few others.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 15th May.

    in At The Races

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

    Big gamble in the last at naas  on  CHILEAN  66/1 into around 10's even on the better fair exchange  but 365 still go 25's.

    Was an half decent animal for Martyn Meade ie running against top class Ghaiyyeth so there are reasons to believe it should be at least competetive in this, the 66/1 was always far to big its 16/1 now 365 and that is probably what it should have opened up as. it will be interesting non the less.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 15th May.

    in At The Races

    Posted

    3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    French 2000 guineas  

    Modern games  9.0  3.0 

    Claymore   8.6   8.4 

    Welwal    8.6  15.5 

    Tough race ...but modern games has apparently been trained for this race and has the class factor ....2nd and 3rd rated are no weaklings though ....for a bit if fun today I'll try 4pts win  modern ....1pt each other 2 to see if can squeeze a little profit out if any wins 

    The draw can be horrendous at Longchamp.

    Racing Chat - Friday 13th May

    in At The Races

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

    I remain to be convinced that multiples or forecasts etc are a better option than singles.

    You are unlikely to get the best prices because an individual bookie is unlikely to be offering the best odds on every selection.

    Your average stakes will also need to be lower to maintain your bank, therefore your total winnings will be lower.

    There must be a reason why bookis like multiple bets.

    You are correct in my opinion, Singles are always a better option, for me the fc and tc are more like fun bets simply because i think if i speed rate a race and i am correct with my figures i like to do fc and tc when the odds are big because i think to myself why do all that work if your not going to use it. it can get expensive so i stick to 2yo pattern races mainly. i like multiples too (lucky 15 because of the double odds for one winner) but again i agree the bookies love them for a reason and its a long time between drinks. okay when your on form but horrendouse at those times you cant buy a winner which happens to us all.

    Racing Chat - Friday 13th May

    in At The Races

    Posted

    3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    It may be cross doubles pay better ....I've had a lot of success in the past ...especially eith ew doubles so it's something I'm watching closely 

    in my opinion and my experience i wouldn't over complicate things i do fc & tc on all my rated races although i generally stick to the top 3. ie 6 x fc  and 6 x tricasts thats on top of the win bet i have on the top rated or the top 2 rated (split stakes if i do top 2 rated) the reason i say dont over complicate is simply the costs which can mount up quite quickly and so can the losses when u have an unlucky run which happens often. example i do £10 win on top rated, i then do 6x 50p forcasts and 6 x 50p tricasts. 16 quid per rated race soon mounts up. if i do have to reduce stakes i never reduce the 50p forcasts just the win bet, down to a fiver and the tricasts, down to 25p costing £9.50 instead of the £16. just an addition here my criteria for doing fc is minimum odds of one of the rated must be 8/1+ and in tc 2 out of the 3 must be double figures otherwise i leave well alone and just do the win bet, again this is purely down to cost/benefit analysis.

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