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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Perhaps I'm over thinking it. The last 3 daily top rated have all won and I've ignored 2 of them (including 6/1 DARE TO HOPE yesterday) because the rating was achieved on the AW.

    Yes i noticed and it was the reason for my comment. Treat it like good or good to firm is my best advice. Back in the day when there was fibresand it was considered suitable for soft ground horses that (southwell) and the other tracks suffered badly with kickback. Since they were all relaid with poly and tapeta  the kickback was all but eliminated. Like any turf track there will be horses suited or not suited so its reasonable to go with the good/ good to firm and my figures bare this out. also bare in mind that back in the day the aw was primarily for poor horses nowadays we have pattern races on the aw and good horses, maybe run the past aw champions days and other aw pattern races through your system to see how the horses turf form v aw compare.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    VINCE L'AMOUR won yesterday at BSP 1.62 + 2 losers

    Current profit 1.62 points

    Top rated today is DARE TO HOPE in the 2.45 at Beverley. However the rating was achieved on the all weather and the top 4 are all within 1 length of each other. SOUL SEEKER is one of these and is available at odds of 25/1 so I'll have a bet at BSP.

    Top rated in total and on the going are

    Beverley 2.10 INDICATION EMBER 11/2 - BETMGM

    Beverley 3.20 DAMBUSTER 11/8 - BSP

    Beverley 4.30 SHALADAR 17/2 - BSP

    This all weather v turf rating is going to drive you mad Micheal.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day.

    Current profit 5.54 points.

    Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW.

    2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP.

    Top rated in total and on the going are

    Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)

    Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP

    Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP

    Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM

    Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places)

    Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP

     

    I have Vaynor top rated in this 355 Epsom. Might try a little Rfc at those prices.

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    I could say I meant it as in "a glass, used especially for some alcoholic drinks, with a wide, shallow bowl (= the round part that holds the drink) and a stem (= a thin vertical part between the base and the bowl)" but I just missed the "l" out. That's the perils of autocorrect when you type something that is actually a word. I don't necessarily proofread everything I post on here to the hilt, you could probably find lots of missuses of "there" and "their" if you were so inclined.

     

    At least it seems you're wrong on that point though I'll admit I wasn't certain. A quick google suggests both goal and tryscorer are fine as one word even if autocorrect tends to object to them. I type/text them that often and had taken to the one word approach for convenience without ever checking if it was entirely correct but it seems it is.

    Nah being the proverbial twat i'm not having tryscorer (not allowed in scrabble games) as one word sorry. 💩😁

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    I spent ages looking at trainer form but couldn't find any angle that gave me an edge

    Interesting about the first race , I'll include this as one of the areas to investigate with my speed figures

    Again the temperature angle is interesting. Not sure if I can incorporate the weather into my analysis ! I have noticed though that some of my successful winners based on speed figures seemed to achieve their speed figure at a similar time of year. That could be an interesting angle.

    Market movers are also interesting. I always suspect the worse when I see my horse has drifted and the backed horses always seem to win, again anecdotal rater than based on actual data.

    Well i wouldn't back a Venetia Williams horse at the moment, that's an angle...

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    I guess this thread illustrates a coupe of things; why racing is so fascinating as a betting medium for many people and why for me, from a “keep it simpler” perspective, I’ve ended up specialising in selling on the spreads and backing goal and tryscorers.

    I do make “studied” bets on goalscorers where additional variables are weighed (games played/started, number of games scored in, last 10 or 20 game goals scored, even xG etc sometimes) but the main anytime systems run off just two variables; best bookies price and spread price for player goal minutes. From just that I make most of my selections and turn a reasonable profit. A lot of data gathering and analysis went into getting to where I am now but I can look at a game and identify the bets in a coupe of minutes.

    The spreads are simpler still as the only variable is the spread price. Having identified the markets where the price is set so high that the sell price will almost always offer value you just blindly sell anything that meets your chosen minimum price. The golden age has gone in that respect though now there’s effectively only one firm. Firstly the edge has been reduced as there’s only one set of prices and secondly we’re left with a firm that won’t hesitate to limit or close successful punters.

    I’ve never really looked at the spread betting markets on racing but my gut feel is that they won’t fall into the “selling blindly” space though you’re more likely to find value in opposing a horse than backing one. I’m also not sure if they’d be as useful as a predictive tool as the goal/try minute prices are.

    Ermm a pedantic grammar policeman is wondering where "coupe" comes into things and thinks "tryscorer" should be two words. 🤣👨‍🎓

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Zilzalian

    13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    There has been debate in the Speed Ratings thread about the importance of going and distance. This has raised the question about which are the most important variables to consider when making selections. I will start with my list in order of importance. Please fell free to comment or add your own lists.

    Odds (both current race and previous race, exclude long odds)

    Days since last run (higher preferred)

    Race distance v distance of previous races

    Finishing position of previous runs (not including last run)

    Draw (this list is for flat racing only)

    Number of runs

    Number of runs (current season)

    Going

    Weight

    Class movement

    Country horse bred in

    Race distance

    Claiming jockey

    Winning / losing distance of last race

    Turf / AW

    Weight v previous run

    Official Rating

    Finish position last run

    Same / different jockey

    Same / different course

    Number of runners in previous race

    Sex of horse

    Age

    Previous course

    Handicap / non handicap

    Official rating v last run

    Official rating v last winning run

    Maiden / non maiden

    Course winner

    Races since last win

    Month

    Course

    Distance winner

    Beaten favourite

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Now put them in order of importance, i would take a good guess that different punters put them in different orders. You could add on stopwatch (RP) big fields v small fields and even naps the list is almost endless. Once you made your selection, The big question i would ask is- what was it based on? did you end up using speed figures or form?

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The distance angle depends on the age of a horse. EG this time of year most of last years 2yo horses are stepping up in distance, but lets say you have a moderate 5 year old that has never won over the distance that is stepping up in trip it is usually a desperate attempt by the trainer to try something new, we see this at all levels including group races. With speed figures you basically have 2 choices 1. Use the pure figure or 2. Try to chip away using a list of criteria that you have to decide which one to back in a tight handicap. Big problem i have identified is that you can end up with too many variables thus end up throwing the baby out with the bath water. Think of all the variables/considerations you can come up with and list them to see what i mean and then post them on here. Others will quickly point out which ones you missed off your list.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    You are probably right.

    My selections have been very simplistic so far whilst I am building up my data from previous years. I have 4 years of data now, I need 2 more then I can analyse 5 years of data and then test it on 2023. Hopefully this will highlight such issues as this race with limited data. One initial conclusion I came to having had a quick look at 1 years data is that you should ignore the next run and concentrate on the 2nd and 3rd run.

    Treat 2yo races differently is my advice to you because you can't (trainers) mess 2yo's about too much and they are trying to find out their level for the future. At pattern level i would suggest that 2yo speed figures are the most accurate. One of the best tools is deciding whether the rating you assign to a horse is above or below the average.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak.

    @MCLARKE Given the amount of racing would you agree with me that i think there is a good case for leaving races like this well alone due to the limited data given the amount of runs?

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

    A win for Bolsena yesterday at 8.00 BSP

    Current profit 1.86 points

    Top rated today (both in total and on the going) is Painite in the 4.10 at Newmarket. It is available at 11/1, I have had a win bet on the exchanges.

    Also top rated on both is Shouldvbeenaring in the 3.00. I have had an EW bet with Ladbrokes at 16/5 (4 places).

    There are 2 top rated on both at Ripon (heavy going). 

    In the 4.17 I've backed Illusionist EW at 16/5 with Ladbrokes (4 places).

    In the 4.52 I've gone for Flying Finn at 27/20 with BETMGM.

     

    I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak.

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