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Posts posted by Zilzalian

  1. 20 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

    Going Notts tomorrow so thought I would join in. Miracle if this does any good but here goes.


    cant argue with your reasoning with these selections but i do like back from dubai in the 825 so i think a forecast is on here 😀

  2. @The Equaliser yesterday you said this.

    "The favourites challenge is just a bit of fun.  My main L15 will have "Players" in them i.e horses ranked between 3/1 - 9/1. Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's.  The question is which one to follow? I dread to think how much members have been spending on all these L15's.  Some, must be losing quite a bit"

    Yesterday Micheal spent 6points today 7.5 points correct me if i am wrong, today with your lucky 15 you have spent 7points.

    So here is the questions you should ask your self. what are the possible returns on his investment compared to yours given this is what you posted on chat "3.50 Red Nakano 1 pt win at 6.8 and cover bet of 1 pt on Zarga at 2.86 for 0.84 profit".

    Micheal has spent 7.5 points today if he doesn't get one winner he will have lost £7.50 lets return later to see what his returns actually are it my well be a loss but how many chances does his bets have to turn a profit (by my reckoning he only needs 1 double) compared to your bets?

    "Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's." this is the key line in your flawed thinking. He is spending "profits" think about that for a while. What are you spending? Like i said previously I just cant see how it is possible to stop your loses they will just grow and grow if you carry on with what your doing.

    Footnote- you just backed 2 losers in 1 race.

  3. 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Yes, I am on the way to one of my best years as a result of the lucky 15s.

    To me the key area is to test my theories before putting my money down, I find the testing often as much fun as the actual betting.

    It is also important not to become disillusioned with losing runs, it is a fact of betting life. I was £700 down in the 4 months to December but have made £3,000 since then.

    Keep stakes small until you are making a profit and then use your profit to increase stakes.

    The next decision is Stakes which have been touched on before, my perspective is based on practicality and experience-that is the long losing runs can be quite expensive although you pick up the odd singles and doubles, so i came to the conclusion and it doesn't matter how rich you are that 40p  is the maximum 98% of the time irrespective of how many you do as long as you can afford it, if not 10p 20p 30p The oldies reckon you should not bet more than 5% of your weekly income which seems sensible to me ( @MCLARKE treble would have returned just under £1,200 a good result for anyone) My big worry/consideration is loss of account if you are successful over time. I assume the bookies can cope/accept a few thousand in loses now and again but up your stakes to a quid or more and those wins will get the attention of the "noseys" One good piece of advice i will put out there "Always remember there is a big difference between having a bet and gambling" one is fun the other is misery.

  4. 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    I basically work through te day's racing in time order and when I come to the end I am often left with 1,2 or 3 horses so to put them into a lucky 15 I add 1 or more of my previous selections. They are not better bets, I tend to pick them for convenience.

    So yesterday I had 13 selections and was left with a selection in the 5.55 at Leicester so to include it in a lucky 15 I included 3 other Leicester selections as I already had the Leicester card open (I picked the 3 shortest out of the 4, I should have followed @Zilzalian's advice and gone with the 3 longest, I would have won another £359).

    First paragraph describes exactly what i do.

  5. 53 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    Out £280.50

    In £1,520.27

    Profit £1,239.77

    And i am now well over £3,000 up in 2023 @The Equaliser the thing with @MCLARKE he has an open mind he takes on board things that are said so the more he learns the more he adjusts he has no fear of admitting wrong think for want of a better expression i have been very impressed with his outlook and by that i mean i am impressed with the "journey" right back from his starting position re L15's to where he is now, i think it is fair to say he took the trouble to question his previous assumptions, put them aside for a while and formulate new ideas and test them. I wouldn't mind betting he has had lots of fun out of this and not much to do with the money. To me this site is all about sharing knowledge a bit of brinkmanship, a bit of banter and helping others better understand betting. In my opinion many can learn so much reading through this thread from page one to the present. Just taking the interactions between @MCLARKE and @harry_rag and dare i say it @Zilzalian if nothing else is very interesting and informative. @LEE-GRAYS is the epitome of "i dont give a fcuk" and has a good laugh while observing and picking stuff up and using it which seems to work for him quite well, i could mention a few others who have contributed to the debate they know who they are and it all makes for a good wedge of useful knowledge that is quite valuable and it is all given freely.

  6. 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Marbuzet was 6/1 4th in the market and Titanium Moon was 2nd favourite.  The rules are L15's with favourites but not odds on.   Got stuck with the earlier races.  Missed Tom Marquand's As IF By chance in the 1.30 Windsor  and Ratatoute Yutty in the 1.35 Hunt so I felt a bit miffed.  Put me off for the rest of the day.  Hence no Fav L15 today.  Running total = -3.82 after two goes.  Tricky stuff.  I hope that I can improve a bit

    I just can't see how you are going to stop the loses if you just carry on doing what your doing. Put it this way if you had copied @MCLARKE to 10p stake total £6 or 6 points you would have won over £300 today. he will get another pretty soon if things pan out as they usually do, you get a few and then go cold for a while.

  7. 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    L15 (not fav)

    2.00 Win Denruth Diamond 10/3

    2.15 Red Happier 15/8

    2.20 Cart Titanium Moon 5/2

    2.30 Leic Marbuzet 6/1

    1 x 0.10 win L 15 = 1.50 poss ret 71.90 and 0.50 w acca poss ret 145.98 = 217.88 = 2 pts

    might as well be favs looking at those prices. 🤔

  8. RTF BS Andre Fabre has had 13 runners in 11 races over 2 days Sunday  4 won 1 2nd 1 3rd.

                 Monday 3 won 1 2nd  2 up. (2 runners in 2 races, 1 50/1 forecast) 

    RTF40% Any smart arse want to explain that?

  9. 5 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

    Organdi 3:30 Cartmel (18/1). This one has drifted like a barge but I thought she had a decent chance when I looked through last night. Finished ahead of Irish Prophecy at Worcester and Warwick (again gets 3lb here). One of the few that likes fast ground and hopefully the low-key return at Aintree was to get ready for this. First try at this kind of trip but should get it round here.

    Villa Chris has gone for Irish Prophecy and will no doubt beat me again 😁

    At least you managed to stay up 😀

  10. 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    We are not even close !!🤣🤣


    5 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    We are not even close !!🤣🤣

    Well meditate ran today and is a NR as is your Jackie oh, my 3 were provisional, we share running lion, i will re-publish later in the week for both the oaks and Derby

  11. Fair result and return pity about Mqse de Sevigne Jockey left it too late, the french Jockeys need to understand the Irish and GB horses dont usually come back to the field like the french style of come late. My £30 quid single @14/1 on Msq... went down but £100 quid profit on the day from France and my  £40 single Luxembourg at 7/2 gave me £180 quid so not a bad day but could have been a lot better.


  12. 3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    I’m not actually betting the horses in the lucky 15 as singles. Reason being I prefer to concentrate on the jumps for no other reason other than I prefer it.  The quality isn’t all that during the summer months for jump racing , but it is what it is. My flat selections are my top rated horses so I’m kind of stuck with whatever price they are, unless I take the biggest priced selection out of my top 3 in the ratings . As single bets at 1 pound stakes with the horses I’ve used in my lucky 15 so far I’m +2 . I do like the bet it’s fun and it gives the chance of a nice pay out .

    There is nothing wrong with what you do, what i meant was simply if you didn't fancy a horse in the first place why put it in a lucky 15. In other words you need a good reason to back any horse not just to make up a lucky 15.


  13. 7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    L15 Fav @Zilzalianchallenge

    1.50 Hd Law Of the Sea (WB) 7/4

    2.25 Hd Covey (FD) 2/1

    2.35 Gd Indispensable (TM) 11/8

    6.40 Sal Leadenhall (RH/RB) 6/4

    1 X 0.20 l15 = 3.00 Poss Ret 35.23, 1 x 1.0 w acca poss ret 48.98 = total 84.21= 4 pts staked

    1 from 4 eh?

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