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Zilzalian
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this.
A bit harsh my friend !
Remember what I said at the beginning "Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this".
I may amend them at some stage but I'll run with them to start off with.
I think the logic may be flawed for longer distances on soft to heavy going because as the distance gets longer the impact will be greater in terms of seconds per mile compared to the shorter distances.
As an example, the Bath meeting on heavy going on the 18th October.
The longer distances are considerably slower compared to the standard than the shorter distances. This results in the sprints having much higher speed figures than longer races.
I have a nagging doubt I'm missing something in my logic, I'm sure somebody will point it out.
My apologies i didn't for one second intend my response to seem harsh i was merely answering the two points. For what its worth i have never solved the riddle of why on average the highest speed figures are distance biased. One thing i do know is that because of the nature of sprints you can get varied results when applied to actual races especially in handicaps however the more interesting speed figures are 08f+ and are stronger the more distance.
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I have now analysed my data for 2023 and the results are not as encouraging as they were for 2022.
3 of the top 10 were recorded on the all weather at Newcastle.
Of the remaining 4 were recorded on heavy going, 2 on soft and 1 on good to soft.
This prompts 2 questions.
1. Should all weather be treated as a separate entity.
2. Should speed figures recorded on soft or heavy going be ignored ot at least be treated with suspicion.
Point 1. There is an argument for separation but in my opinion it is a small argument.
Point 2. If the ground is soft through heavy then they are useful on that going but for all other goings by my system they never come out on top anyway unless the horse in question has run to a figure on the other "goings". Your going adjustments based on the little i know about your "going corrections" are obviously flawed.
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255 catt joie de vivre 14/1
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800 wolves Commission 12/1 bet365
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19 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Yes I believe the ability to quicken at the end of a fast race is a rare attribute
I may have some old data from a few years back that I can test it on, I'll add it to my speed to do list
20 hours ago, MCLARKE said:Fro @black rabbit
Good luck with the ratings Mike. I think I posted a note ages ago about a guy I use to see regularly at the races back in the 70’s/80’s ‘Milo’ he’d a system where he would note from the Raceform Handicap Weekend edition (don’t think it’s published anymore) all horses which had won a race in an above average time (denoted by prefix ‘B’ in result column) the horse would have to have one of the following caveats from the race reader – ‘ran on well’ ‘quickened clear’ easily won’ ‘comfortably’ he claimed he got the system from ‘Phil Bull’ which was probably bullshite but he did appear to keep finding frequent winners.
The ’Rub’ being that any horse who could quicken at the end of a fast run race warranted serious respect in future races, I have loosely applied this over the years when a horse from these categories has been unplaced a few times and then slipped on to a nice handicap weight.
I had a similar/same system as your guy but noted all the placed horse that achieved a bigger speed figure than the winner due to weight differences, my biggest earner was a horse of Mark Johnsons called Yavanas Pace (switched from Ireland) that came forth in a class C handicap it ended up winning a Group 1 after winning the November handicap and many other races usually at decent odds. There is gold in them there speed figures lads.
- MCLARKE and black rabbit
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On 2/21/2024 at 11:00 AM, Zilzalian said:
I have had a good look at the GN and my conclusion is that this year is weaker than last based on my notebook. Vanillier is the rightful favourite and at 12/1 is a good bet but needs waiting until after Cheltenham before backing. The one that most interests me is last years winner Corach Rambler at a nice 16/1 ish, It won easily enough last year and many will point to the weights difference with Vanillier but for me Vanillier was all out whereas The Rambler wasn't or didn't have to be "forced" even though it idled in front like it does in most of its races and Vanillier was catching it. So my conclusion is that it will be 1. Corach Rambler. 2. Vanillier and for 3rd i will chuck in Noble Yeats. My bets will be based around these with wins on The Rambler with forecasts and tricasts on all three as soon as they are available as long as they are double figure prices as they are now.
I think i got the value. Rambler is now a ridiculous price. 😁
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255 KEMP Okeechobee 8/1 bet365
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155 plumpton the orchard bay 33/1 bet365
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29 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Good luck , I've not backed SISKANY 6/1 who was 2nd beaten a neck in race last year nor in the last the ever improving KABIRIKHAN 9/2 but has the Japanese to overcome but feel both have a good chance , just US bets for me today .
I have learned that it is wise to back EW at this meeting it throws up some very iffy results. How else have they got the worlds racing people to support it? the other thing bettors should bear in mind the the japanese season is in full swing so they have a small fitness advantage.
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2 hours ago, calva decoy said:
You backing in form ENEMY ?
Yes it runs very well here but it needs a strong pace which it should get, Coltrane has a huge one off speed figure so its going to be close, i do tricasts and f/cs in the races i back in, but my win bet will be Enemy.
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335 newc coachello 20/1 bet365
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19 minutes ago, Trotter said:
just noticed from your list that Chipstead is running tomorrow ....... Newc 3.35
My figures suggest Coachello, there will be no hiding in this so you need a 7f horse in my opinion, I don't write of Chipstead (its in my f/c) but i just think Coachello will be stronger at the finish.
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3.15 chant mia bella 18/1 bet365
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A few proviso's here.
I could only rate Runners from Britain, Ireland, Meydan, and Jebel Ali.
Which leaves out Japan and the USA. So a bit of caution is advised.12:05
1 Isolate 129 3rd
2 Remorse 129
3 Swing Vote 127
12:40
1 Coltrane 143
2 Enemy 134
3 Tower of London 133 won
1:30
1 Danyah 136
2 Emeraaty Anna 136
3 Dilligent Harry 132 3rd
1:50
1 Mendelsson Bay (my best guess)
2:25
1 Leading Spirit 132
2 Mouheeb 131
3 Tuz/Colour up 130 won 10/1 /up
3:10
1 Luxembourg 145
2 Real World 135
3 Nashwa 134
4:00
1 August Rodin 143
2 Spirit Dancer 133
3 Emily Upjohn 131
4:35
1 Military Law 126
2 Derm Sotogaki 125
3 Laurel River 123 won 17/2
Made a bit of profit on the day by way of my Tadhg O'Shea double on my O'Shea (L15) and a few bits and bobs on the places/extra places. but overall as usual at this meeting there were some iffy results so can't really complain.
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5.15 here laddie cooper mia 40/1 PP
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2.20 Taunton Escobedo 28/1 bet365
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I'm trying to keep it simple but not being very successful !
With regard to calculating the going adjustment I have five options (at least)
1 Use all the races at a meeting
2 Ignore the slowest and the fastest
3 Take the 3 fastest
4 Only include the handicaps
5 Take the 3 with biggest fields
I'll start with option 1 but will be interested in others opinions
I once used option 2, then i thought hmm sometimes there are 7 races 8 and even 9 so what i did was use just 5 races i knocked off the fastest and slowest (if only 6 races i took out the extreme)
SPEED RATINGS
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Occams Razor lads, Occams Razor....