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Zilzalian
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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One thing about Corach Rambler that people should consider, Although i have already backed it at 16/1 because it was value, since it came 3rd in the gold cup it is a ridiculous price now, it is on dodgy ground here. Garrisons Savanah won a gold cup but couldn't win the National (2nd or 3rd) Hedgehunter won the National and the following year finished 2nd in the gold cup but couldn't win the national again (2nd) so it may pay to go in again and the best alternative for me is Noble Yeats 16/1 CD winner and there is a lot to like about Aint that a shame at 66/1, my previous post on the GN i quite liked Vanillier but i think as it was all out last year this ground forecast and its skinny price is enough to put me off.
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830 WOLVS Gordonstoun 20/1 bet365
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13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I still don't see any value in the forecast, I have looked at it with previous systems and came to the conclusion that I'd be better off having 2 win bets rather than the forecast.
Having said that you have changed my mind with lucky 15s and, probably, speed ratings, so who knows, I may end up backing forecasts as well.
It only works with the bigger price winners Micheal, but it is an angle you can keep your eye on as you go forward.
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3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:
Do you post your selections on the site? Have you tracked a P/L? Very interested in this thread and the different systems you all have. Especially if your systems pull up the same horse as they did yesterday.
I post Speed figures now and again, the reason is simple enough, the bookies are watching, i suggested that to Micheal once and he didn't believe me, i think he might believe me now. As for P/L i posted for 1 month in 3 consecutive years 1 of which was profit for singles and pretty much evens for L15's the other two years, both were in profit on both counts. I left the daily grind behind from last November (see thread on November 17th  Time to Give up the Daily Grind.  So now just rate to suit when it suits.
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6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
In the 3.43 I would have Desparate Hero top rated with Blind Beggar second
In the 5.55 I would have had Danzart top rated, Sarah's verse would have been 6th
So we had similar results in the 3.43 I wouldn't have backed in the 5.55 to be honest because i avoid shorties but back to the 3.43, i hope you can more understand my reasoning in backing the forecasts to small stakes to get the maximum value from the work i put in. BTW Blind beggar came on top in both scenarios (goings) on my figures I was curious to see whether yours did also.
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31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Perhaps there is something to say for speed ratings afer all
I won't get too carried away, my first ever nap won at 33/1 but I've never finished better than fourth
Suggestion- Run the figures again on the same race but on Good or good to firm ground see what result you get.
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.
It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.
Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.
Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.
Just confirmed Blind Beggar, Democracy Dilemma, Desperate HeroÂ
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325 long first look 14/1 bet365
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11 hours ago, Trotter said:
I think my problem with the Ascot thing is that I won't have any figures before racing
My 'modus operandi' is to rate the meeting when it's finished and store those ratings for future use
But I've only ever really done ratings for the AW and few runners at Royal Ascot will have run on the AW...... plus I haven't done any ratings at all for a while. So basically I won't have any ratings for any of the runners at Royal Ascot
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That's fair enough, when i thought of the Ascot angle i thought it only fair to give you the option of joining in as you are contributing to the thread.
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10 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Must admit this thread largely flies over my head in a way that is probably karma for all that spread based waffle I come out with but I’m not surprised you can’t make a profit by just using each horse’s last run; it’s far too little data.
Each horse’s best figure would be more relevant but not in isolation. Ideally you want a rating for each horse that is based on its aggregate form, a bit like ratings for a football team based on their last x games.
I think the idea of a few of you comparing ratings for the same good quality races is a good one.
Its even confusing me a bit to be honest but the proof will be in the pudding come ascot, i for example will be using pure speed figures with very little else taken into account i do this because my experience tells me that is what i must do. If your firing in more and more angles you can soon get away from the point of speed figures and end up back with form. I will be particularly interested in the combinations of the figures if @Trotter doesn't fancy it i will use Stop Watch of the RP as the 3rd man if he does play i will look at the different combinations of the 4 players. Either way it will be an interesting exercise. Personally i think the ground being good or GF will be key to accuracy.
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2.40 kemp laafi 33/1 bet365
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
First run of the numbers and a bit of a sobering conclusion.
I have analysed the 2023 flat season and recorded the results of the next run.
I have split the results between the top 50% and bottom 50%.
The top 50% show a strike rate of 13% and an AE of 0.98.
The bottom 50% show a strike rate of 6% and an AE of 1.02.
This is obviously not the way to use speed figures. In fact Nick Mordin did indicate this when he quoted "in a series of 200 races, the horse with the highest speed rating on its last run won 30% of the time but returned a 18% loss".
I need to do a bit more digging to find that gold !
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" the horse with the highest speed rating on its last run"Â can you expand on this? how would you rate/bet it in a race? on its last run or its best speed figure?
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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I'll add it to my list
I've got so many angles I want to test / analyse, I did say a while back that I was ignoring racing to concentrate on my share investments but I've been dragged back in, it's much more interesting than shares
Suggestion. Royal Ascot is not really that far off so if we speed rate the same 3 races per day lets see how they compare we can also add in @Trotter if he fancy's it and see if we can learn something from the results.
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440 ling peggoty 66/1 ew bet365
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10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
The number of races that are used to calculate the going allowance is very small from a statistical perspective so the calculation of the going allowance is already going to be very approximate. To reduce it from 6 to 3 would make it even more inaccurate.
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Run your system with the going correction and then without compare the list and see if it makes much difference.
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On 4/3/2024 at 8:53 PM, MCLARKE said:
If I restrict my rating to horses that achieved a rating on good or good to firm going then the top ones are -
+ 0.03 PADDINGTON. Sandown Group 1. No surprise as this was the Coral-Eclipse. Won its next race.
-0.03 ONCE MORE FOR LOVE. Newmarket Class 2 Handicap. Ran 2.38 secs faster than the group 3 contest on the same card. Unraced since.
-0.10 HUKUM. Ascot Grade 1. Lost its next race (Arc De Triomphe).
-0.12 REGIONAL. Haydock Group 1. Unraced since.
-0.19 FOX JOURNEY. Newbury Class 4 Handicap. Ran 2 times more on turf (placed at 11/1 and 5/1).
-0.25 SHALLOW HAL. Carlisle Class 5 Apprentice Hadicap. Unplaced in next 5 runs.
-0.26 REGIONAL. Haydock Listed. Lost its next race but then won the Group 1 Betfair Cup at Haydock with an even higher speed rating at 10/1.
-0.26 AUDIENCE. Newmarket Group 3. 4 runs since, lost 3 times on soft or good to soft going but came 2nd at 20/1 on good to firm.
-0.31 FIRST SIGHT. Yarmouth Class 3 Handicap. Transferred to Meydan where it lost 2 races.
-0.33 LOVE LIES. Ayr Class 5 Maiden. Won next race at 10/11 but then lost next 2.
-0,34 WARM HEART. York Group 1. Won 2 of its next 4 runs in France and the US at odds of 3/1 and 12/5.
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Most of these appear logical and would have shown a profit if backed afterwards.
I will be interested how REGIONAL performs on its reappearance since it recorded 2 out of the top 7 speed figures. It has an entry in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes at York on the 15th of May.
My next step now I am reasonably happy with my calculations is a detailed analysis of each horse in 2023.
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Will 100% support the assessment of regional very unusual for a horse to return 4 consecutive numbers above 130.
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this.
A bit harsh my friend !
Remember what I said at the beginning "Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this".
I may amend them at some stage but I'll run with them to start off with.
I think the logic may be flawed for longer distances on soft to heavy going because as the distance gets longer the impact will be greater in terms of seconds per mile compared to the shorter distances.
As an example, the Bath meeting on heavy going on the 18th October.
The longer distances are considerably slower compared to the standard than the shorter distances. This results in the sprints having much higher speed figures than longer races.Â
I have a nagging doubt I'm missing something in my logic, I'm sure somebody will point it out.
My apologies i didn't for one second intend my response to seem harsh i was merely answering the two points. For what its worth i have never solved the riddle of why on average the highest speed figures are distance biased. One thing i do know is that because of the nature of sprints you can get varied results when applied to actual races especially in handicaps however the more interesting speed figures are 08f+ and are stronger the more distance.
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I have now analysed my data for 2023 and the results are not as encouraging as they were for 2022.
3 of the top 10 were recorded on the all weather at Newcastle.
Of the remaining 4 were recorded on heavy going, 2 on soft and 1 on good to soft.
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This prompts 2 questions.
1. Should all weather be treated as a separate entity.
2. Should speed figures recorded on soft or heavy going be ignored ot at least be treated with suspicion.
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Point 1. There is an argument for separation but in my opinion it is a small argument.
Point 2. If the ground is soft through heavy then they are useful on that going but for all other goings by my system they never come out on top anyway unless the horse in question has run to a figure on the other "goings". Your going adjustments based on the little i know about your "going corrections" are obviously flawed.
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255 catt joie de vivre 14/1
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800 wolves Commission 12/1 bet365
Naps - Tuesday 9th April
in NAP of the Day Competition
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245 THIRSK V Twelve 10/1 bet365