Offramp

I think I've been too cautious.

I think I've been too cautious.

Due to the clamour of popular demand…
I’ll do the admin again as @Zilzalian will only find a way to get out of it, if the following admin terms are acceptable.
One post every day containing that day’s L15 (no editing them all in a single post as I recall someone favouring last time) One post after the bet has been settled confirming any returns. Even if there’s no return, confirmation would be appreciated. Again, don’t update via edits as I’d have to trawl back through the thread. Updates by the end of the day would be appreciated but I’ll allow them up to noon the next day. Any updates after that will be settled as nil return with no adjustment regardless of the actual return! In terms of the general rules I’d propose going with what we had last time:
 


  One lucky15 per day settled to 20p (either 20p win or 10p ew).
No cash out allowed for comp purposes.
Preferably bets would be real and not just paper picks, screenshots preferred.
Kudos and bragging rights will be the only prize.
“Wind ups allowed. Sensitive sorts need not apply.”

I have a good feeling about 
16:08 Towcester 2/7/23
PERFECTO AWAY
11/2

I'm trying these four tonight.
 

I'm trying these four tonight.
 

Great shout! 🏆🐶🐰👀♥️

It's just the way it goes mate! Keep stakes small and never any bad damage done and I get a buzz off watching the races I've studied! Eventually, the studying pays off! 👍

My ones going very soon.
 

I read your posts day after day and they are always interesting. I don't always follow the tips.
My previous comment was about this thread in general. It wasn't a reply to a single specific post!

Why is that mate? Only had one winner 🙄🤣

Many thanks to @mclarke for running this; it must be very difficult. 
Well done to all the winners!

@Smartins1234you are the man!!

Good morning all! Feels like a good day to win lots of money! 🙄🙄🤣🤣
Here goes-8 dogs-acca,7folds,6folds,5folds😂👍🏆🐶🐰🥰
11.54  T1 Westwind Zebra - Suffolk Downs 2nd🙃
12.01 T2 Potty by Nature - Towcester 🙄
12.09 T2 Fair Rocket - Suffolk Downs 2nd🙃
12.46 T2 Norbette flyer - Towcester🙄
2.19 T2 Rathcoole Honey - Sheffield 3rd
2.36 T1 Perfecto Star - Sheffield🏆5/2
4.28 T1 Sirius Warrior - Romford🏆11/10
5.28 T1 Glosha Lala - Romford🙄
10p stakes for all bets except the 8fold ACCA which is 20p 🐶🐰🏆🏆🏆🏆🙄🤣😂🙄 Cmon you lovely dogs! Woof on me today plzzzzz! 🐶🐰🤣
9.40 is the total stake - 56 5folds, 28 6folds, 8 7folds, an 1 ACCA! A complete wipeout is obvs possible so if your having a go please do my multiple or a multiple of your own! Singles will ruin your wallet! 💪👌👍2 winners! Nevermind!

I like to do 6 dogs: 6 dogs, each way doubles, it comes to £3 and it often gives a profit.

Try a multiple tonight! 
7.26 T3 Kinsley
7.41 T5 Kinsley
8.38 T6 Harlow
9.12 T3 Harlow
🐶🐰🥰🏆👍3 close seconds! Nevermind! Getting up early tomoz for a good study an gonna go for 8 races, ACCA, 7folds, 6folds an 5folds! Worth a go! Still small stakes! 🐶🐰🥰

Thank you. It's a lot better now that the majority post in the correct format.

Many thanks to @mclarke for running this; it must be very difficult. 
Well done to all the winners!

Many thanks to @mclarke for running this; it must be very difficult. 
Well done to all the winners!

Many thanks to @mclarke for running this; it must be very difficult. 
Well done to all the winners!

Many thanks to @mclarke for running this; it must be very difficult. 
Well done to all the winners!

2.30 Crimson Advocate 
 
3.05 Crystal Caprice
 
3.40 Random Harvest
 
4.20 Adayer
 
5.00 Astro King
 
5.35 Peking Opera
 
6.10 Maximum Impact

Yes. Apologies for the delay. There's some data issues we are having. Hoping to have it fixed as soon as possible. We'll have to get creative with our predictions for the time being so keen to hear what you all have in mind for the matches coming up this week across the leagues. 

Back On The Lash - Was prominent for a fair way in this race last year, but ended up not really seeing it out in the heavy ground and pulled up. He ran really well at the November meeting here when 3rd in good handicap over the normal course. He then ran over this course and distance in January and took full advantage of it being a handicap as he won carrying 10-5 and had Delta Work just under 5L back in 3rd, but he was carrying 11-7. It doesn't really need me to highlight that off levels here he is going to have a much stiffer task to uphold that form.
Coup De Pinceau - He put in a very good performance to land the 4m contest on Hunter Chase night here in April and didn't run too badly at Cartmel where he finished 3rd before it was discovered he shouldn't have run in the race because the hunter chase season hadn't ended yet. He ran OK at Musselburgh back in November, but pulled up last time in the Devon National. Should be outclassed in this field though.
Deise Aba - 'Did not enjoy the Grand National course last year, but clearly enjoyed this course as he finished to Back On The Lash here in January. He had to carry 2lbs less in that race so off levels here he shouldn't really reverse the form with the winner nor uphold the form with Delta Work.
Delta Work - Was the party pooper in this contest last year when getting up in the last 110 yards to beat Tiger Roll by 3/4L. He followed that up with a superb 3rd in the Grand National off a huge weight (he had to carry 13lbs more than Noble Yeats). Clearly both of those runs are way superior to what most of these could achieve. He's returned in good form this season as well. First up he won the Risk Of Thunder Chase at Punchestown over their banks course in November and then he was a good 3rd giving all that weight away here in January. Tiger Roll would often warm up for this in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan and that's what Delta Work did last month where he ran creditably behind Blazing Khal. He looks in the same form as last year and is the one they all have to beat.
Diesel D'Allier - Has done well over this course since coming over from France. He was 3rd to Back On The Lash in November 21 and then won the following month. After that there was nothing wrong with his 4th in this race although he was 30L behind Delta Work which shows how much ground he has to make up. He was disappointing on his only run so far this season in the January contest over this course and he will need to come on plenty for that. If he does then he might have a small e/w chance given his good record at the track prior to that run.
Easysland - Was a superb winner of this contest in 2020 and was 2nd to Tiger Roll in 2021, but he has run terribly in every run since then including when only 9th in the January contest over this course. If somehow he did re-find his form then he would be a player, but that would appear to be very unlikely.
Foxy Jacks - Ran in the Ultima at The Festival last year when 14th. Was 3rd to Delta Work in the Risk Of Thunder back in November and was a close 5th in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. His only run over this course and distance was in the January race but he fell at the 15th. He was well beaten at the Dublin Racing Festival last time back in handicap company. On that 3rd at Punchestown he has an e/w chance in this as he looked like this longer trip would help him.
Francky Du Berlais - Ran way above his odds when 5th in the January race over this course, but again he would have benefitted by the fact that was a handicap and there doesn't seem any reason why he should reverse the form on these terms.
Franco De Port - A Grade 1 winner over 2m1f at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting back in 2020 and that was his last victory. He has run some good races in defeat however and he clearly stays well having finished 3rd in the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris last May. That race is over 3m6f and whilst not a cross-country race as such they do have to jump different obstacles in that contest which should bode well for his first run over this track. All his runs have been in Grade 1 or 2 races this season and he's run solidly on the whole. He should appreciate this drop down in class and if he does take to the track then he can be a leading player.
Galvin - Finished 4rh in last year's Gold Cup which obviously is a top class effort in the context of this race. This season he landed a Grade 3 at Punchestown in October, but he hasn't been so good on his next two starts only beating 1 home at Down Royal and then well beaten at Leopardstown in the Savills Chase where he was a long way behind Franco De Port. The trainer has reported that he has schooled well over the fences so likely to go close.
Hardline - Has been running in points for most of the season winning a couple, but that form way below what would be needed to win this and was only 6th at Punchestown in a much lesser race than this over their banks course
Lieutenant Rocco - Won a handicap at Kempton last time off a mark of 122 which is way below what will be needed here and he looks like he might be a doubtful stayer as well.
Mortal - Given it was his first run for a year he ran really well to finish 4th here in January only 7L behind Back On The Lash. He clearly enjoys this track as he finished 4th here in December 2021 as well. Clearly has something to find, but if he comes on for the run he has a place chance.
Plan Of Attack - He was the horse who followed Delta Work and Tiger Roll home in this race last year although he was 22L behind the winner. He's not really run that well on his 4 subsequent starts though which would be a concern. There was a glimmer of promise when he stayed on here in January to finish 7th after finding himself outpaced. On balance though he will do very well to repeat last year's 3rd let alone do any better. 
Gin On Lime - Won a Grade 3 Novice Chase at Tipperary in October 2021 over 2m4f and he then won the infamous match race here at the November meeting when My Drogo came down at 2 out. She's run well enough in defeat since and was a fair 4th in the Kerry National last time, but that was back in September and I'm not sure she wants this trip. Also it remains to be seen to how she takes to the track.
Snow Leopardess - Seems to be coming back into form and ran well for a long way here in January before fading into 6th place. She put in an even better performance at Haydock last time in the Grand National Trial to finish a close 2nd to Quick Wave. The softer the ground the better for her and whilst she needs to find something to win this on these terms she could well offer e/w value.
Verdict - Given this isn't a handicap it is hard not to see the 3 classy horses coming to the fore here. Delta Work was so impressive here last year when beating Tiger Roll that I think he can land the race for the 2nd time. For me he is coming into this race in better form than his stablemate Galvin. Franco De Port looks to be e/w value at the prices especially as he was in front of Galvin last time and his run in France last May suggests this sort of test should suit him. There are others who can run well headed by Snow Leopardess who seems to have found her form again, but unless something very unusual happens it is hard to see how any of those outside of the front 3 in the betting can possibly win.

This is an outstanding month. I watched the French hammer the Sassenachs at Twickers. Then the Paddies beat the Jocks in a tough match at Murrayfield.
I am going to be 60 at the end of this month, and 3 close friends from school have birthdays mid-March.
I have two first cousins who have their 60th birthday about now; all O'Briens. I have a feeling that this is going to be a great meeting.
Today I have a strong feeling for MISTER COFFEY in the 17:30.