azzybear

300 Foxboro 22/1 ew skybet 5pl.
hoping Harry Kimber can get a place.     nope,7th.

MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL
A decent rest from the last race is desirable. Those who last ran more than 35 days ago have a record of 8 wins from 70 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have 2 wins from 104 runs with a loss of 35 points.
Horses that carried 10st 2lbs to 10st 10lbs last time have 7 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 83 points.
This leaves 3, MR INCREDIBLE (13/2), AUTONOMOUS CLOUD (11/2) and TRUCKERS LODGE (30/1).
Horses that last ran in races with fields of 16 to 20 runners have 6 wins from 39 runs with a profit of 75 points. This removes MR INCREDIBLE.
Horses with an OR of 135 to 138 have 6 wins from 44 runs with a profit of 69 points.
This leaves TRUCKERS LODGE at 30/1 (4 places).
 

Had a go on that too, ew 35s, 5 places

Few bets today.
Santos Blue win, had One Eye on Vegas mb 2nd, so missed out by a place.
210 irish Hill and took a chance on west balboa
300 iron bridge and Mr incredible

2.25 Uttoxeter - elvis mail 33/1 ew 

I have had 3 x :L15's & Accas on the Daily = 7.50 pts = 12 selections
1.35 Km Beau Balko 3 pts win at 4.1 & 1.40 pts win on Issar D'airy at 3.2 = 7.74 profit if Beau Balko wins to cover L15's and 0.08 profit if Issar D'airy wins to cover Beau Balko stake
Total stakes today = 11.90 Pretty smart eh?
 

AW selection
Wolverhampton 8.30
OPEN FORCE

my boyfriend 11.15 ew france

my boyfriend 11.15 ew france

Alaphilippe                                                           2 25 Utx/                  1/40th of a pt ew      66/1
Striking a pose                                                    2 25 Utx/                   1/40th of a pt ew      25/1
Ask Me Early                                                        3 00 Utx/                   1/40th of a pt ew      14/1
Young Dev                                                            3 00 Uxt/                  1/40th of a pt ew       20/1
War Lord                                                               2 45 kem/                1/40th of a pt ew       20/1
Cap Du Nord                                                        3 55 kem/                 1/40th of a pt ew      12/1
 
P/L + 176.60 pts

Kempton 1.35 Just the five face the starter for this class 3 2M 2F novices’ handicap chase. Gary Moore saddles the favourite Issar d’Airy who will be very hard to beat. The six year old is two from two over fences having won twice at Newbury over the minimum trip rising 16lb in the process. The horse he beat last time I’d Like To Know franked the form when winning since at the same track. He is a confident selection to beat his biggest danger in the Paul Nicholls trained Beau Balko who won last time out at Mussleburgh.   ISSAR d’AIRY 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill   Uttoxeter 1.50 Nine line up for this 2M 4F class 3 handicap hurdle which can fall to the in form Stuart Edmunds trained One Eye On Vegas, who’s well named as he is blind in one eye! His form has taken off since sporting cheek pieces winning handicap hurdles at Leicester and Hereford rising some 18lb in the handicap. He gets in here off of bottom weight and as a habitual front runner expect to see his usual pilot Ciaran Gethings making plenty of use of him on ground that suits well. Jagwar has already been beaten off of this mark so the danger may well be Emma Lavelle’s Canty Bay.   ONE EYE ON VEGAS 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   Kempton 2.10 A dozen line up for the class 2 handicap hurdle run over 2M 5F. Several have chances including the progressive Robbie Llewellyn trained Titan Discovery who’s up 6lb for his latest victory at Sandown and the Paul Nicholls trained Irish Hill who continues to tumble down the handicap. Anthony Honeyball has a good chance with his eight year old Good Luck Charm who’s run well in similar type of handicaps this season and off of the same handicap mark should be competitive and looks the each way bet under 3lb conditional jockey Ben Godfrey. Don’t disregard the bottom weight Thunderclap either who impressed over course and distance on his penultimate run from subsequent winner Madame. He’s worth a small each way saver at a big price.   GOOD LUCK CHARM 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 THUNDERCLAP 1/2 bet each way @ 28/1 William Hill   Uttoxeter 2.25 A very competitive eighteen runner class 2 handicap hurdle over 2M 7F 70 yards in which several hold very decent chances. The 2M 7 1/2F handicap hurdle at Chepstow in February may be the key piece of form to this race. David Braces’s Classic Concorde made all to beat Supremely West who came with a wet sail over the last by 2 1/2L and now on 3lb better terms and in first time blinkers it will be no surprise were Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole’s six year old to turn the tables on his older rival today and he’s the main bet here. Back in fourth that day was Thursday’s Pertemps Hurdle winner Monmiral to give the form a good look. I also can’t resist a small each way saver on Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe who also ran in that race finishing ninth, beaten 32L although watching the race back he ran a lot better than his finishing position suggests as his jockey Paddy Brennan looked after him after the last. A drop of 3lb and first time cheek pieces may help him find some improvement. He was just touched off in the 2022 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham from a 6lb higher mark so there's no doubt he’s a well handicapped horse.   SUPREMELY WEST 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ALAPHILIPPE 1/2 point each way @ 50/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   Kempton 2.45 Just nine face the judge for this 2M 4 1/2F class 2 Handicap Chase. Dan and Harry Skelton have had a fantastic week at Cheltenham and can keep the good form going with their track specialist Flegmatik here. The horse has won three times from 7 starts at the course with figures of 3110214 with the fourth coming last time out when finishing just 2 1/2L behind Forward Plan in the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase over 3M. His previous win here came from this week’s Ultima winner Chianti Classico so the form is solid. He has to cope with a drop in distance but I don’t really see that as a problem and he looks the pick with Paul Nicholls’s Outlaw Peter the danger.   FLEGMATIK 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill   Uttoxeter 3.00 This year’s Midlands Grand National has only attracted a field of thirteen which is rather disappointing. There are many here that should stay this marathon trip of 4M 2F including My Silver Lining, who won the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick in January over 3M 5F prior to a good second in the Haydock Grand National Trial. Autonomous Cloud just got the better of Iron Bridge in the 3M novices handicap chase on this card last year and the pair renew rivalry with both holding claims if lasting out this longer trip. One horse who does interest me at a big price is the Irish challenger Young Dev. The only time he’s attempted a marathon trip as long as this was in this race two years ago when he finished second (10L 2nd to fellow countryman Screaming Colours). He can race off of a mark here 9lb lower and back up in distance he’s the value bet in a very competitive renewal.   YOUNG DEV 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Uttoxeter 3.35 A valuable eight runner 3M novices’ Handicap Chase concludes the ITV coverage today. Christian Williams has had a quiet season so far but the signs are that he’s about to spring into form having had two winners from his last ten runners at time of writing which includes his bottom weight here Fortunefavorsdbold. Only a six year old he appears to have taken his form up a notch since wearing cheek pieces winning at Huntingdon and Lingfield rising just 10lb. He gets in here off of bottom weight and although this will be a lot tougher than the three runner race he won at Lingfield he can be competitive at an each way price for Jack Tudor. There is a strong possibility that the race may drop to seven runners with top weight Marsh Wren also down to run at Cheltenham on Friday so if that’s the case hunt around for a firm who pay three places on seven runner contests.   FOURTUNEFAVORSDBOLD 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5 123    

micks spirit 7.30

chuzlwit 6.15

Who needs Cheltenham !
AW selection
Southwell 8.00
MOULIN BOOJ

ironopolis 1.35

ironopolis 1.35

Likeman                                                6 00 Sth/                       1/40th of a pt ew    40/1

SHA TIN
Sunday 10 th march
0915
Super Sunny Sing
Sweet Encounter 
both win
these two are top and bottom weights and hold plenty of track experience here.
super sunny sing recorded a career best here last time and the step up in trip may well suit.  Sweet encounter has been consistent and both look as though they might go well at decent prices…

8.00 Southwell - Princess Naomi 4/1 bet365 . 👎 pulled Murphy's arms out first 2 furlongs & then ran into traffic 2f out , poor ride really but wouldn't have got anywhere near the winning favourite .

The calm before the storm! The ITV cameras are showing six races on Saturday before the onslaught to Prestbury Park next week and here are my thoughts on the six.
 
Sandown 1.50 The days ITV schedule starts with a seventeen runner 2M 4F EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final. Paul Nicholls has taken two of the last four renewals with McFabulous and Complete Unknown and appears to hold anther decent chance with top weight Fire Flyer. He’s won two of his three starts over hurdles including when defeating the smart Secret Squirrel at Taunton last time out. This is his first start in a handicap with his mark of 127 looking fair enough. Harry Cobden is in the saddle and he looks to have a good chance. Jonjo O’Neill’s Hasthing is another with a good chance now stepping back up in trip off of what appears a fair mark.   FIRE FLYER 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   Sandown 2.25 The day’s feature race at the Esher track is the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle run over two miles. It features sixteen runners and as always has an open enough look about it. One horse who will love the soft conditions and has been running well all season is Olly Murphy’s Go Dante. He beat Doddiethegreat at Cheltenham in December and ran with plenty of credit when third in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury 57 days later to Iberico Lord who’s been supplemented this week for the Champion Hurdle. He had a few of these behind him that day and off of the same handicap mark and with Sean Bowen riding looks sure to give us a big run for our money each way with additional places.   GO DANTE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Wolverhampton 2.40 Just six go to post for this listed 7F 36 yard Lady Wulfruna Stakes in which favourite Shouldhavebeenaring has a very solid look about him. Richard Hannon’s grey ended last season running creditably in group 1 events so this represents a big drop in class. He has 9lb and upwards in hand of his five rivals and if straight enough will be very hard to beat with Sean Levey in the saddle. The progressive Doctor Khan Junior who is five from seven on the all weather may end up the biggest threat to the pick but this is all about Shouldhavebeenaring.   SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 2 points win @ 11/8 bet365   Sandown 3.00 The British Stallion Studs EBF Mares National Hunt race is next up, a listed contest run over two miles with a dozen promising mares facing the judge here. Mark Walford’s Just Call Me Lucy ran right away with a bumper up at Carlisle when last seen, 89 days ago and is a player although I’m not too sure what she beat that day. I’m happy to take a chance on the only rules newcomer in the race and Dan Skelton’s Honky Tonk Highway. It looks significant that trainer Dan Skelton has thrown her straight into listed company for her debut under rules having looked useful when winning a 3M maiden point to point on heavy ground at Tattersalls Farm last October. The horse she beat that day Diva Luna is now in the hands of Ben Pauling and won a listed bumper at Market Rasen last month to massively frank the form. Skelton’s Milan mare was bought for £165,000 after her victory and t would be no shock if she was to strike at the first time of asking.   HONKY TONK HIGHWAY 1 point win @bet365   Wolverhampton 3.15 The 1M 142 yard BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap features eleven runners of whom only three are actually entered in the Lincoln which is a fortnight away today. The horse that catches my eye is the Clive Cox trained Kingdom Come. The Kingman five year old has won three of his five starts on the all weather and has not been disgraced in two efforts this season when runner up to the progressive Doctor Khan Junior and his latest third at Lingfield can be marked up as he had a poor trip round. Off of the same mark and with Rossa Ryan in the saddle he looks excellent each way value, especially wit the firms paying four places.   KINGDOM COME 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Sandown 3.35 A £50,000 2M 4F novices’ handicap chase that has attracted just eight runners. Paul Nicholls’ top weight Golden Son may well be the one they all have to beat. He bounced back to form following two pulled up efforts in first time cheek pieces at Kempton a fortnight ago when beating Heltenham by half a length. Heltenham has boosted the form since by winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury so a 3lb rise may not be enough to stop this ex french six year old who runs in the colours of one of Nicholls’s biggest patrons Johnny de la Hey. Kotmask trained by Gary Moore is chasing a hat trick and looks the danger.   GOLDEN SON 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor  

Belargus                                         4 40 San/                1/40th of a pt ew   18/1
Holy Fire                                         5 00 Wol/                1/40th of a pt ew   22/1
 
 
 
P/L   + 176.20pts

AW selection
Newcastle 7.00
REDONDO 

Going to take a bit of a flyer on Gearings Point in the first at Lingfield at 22/1. Has recently been running over hurdles but his last flat run was over C&D when he was 5th beaten 4 lengths in a strong Saturday race which was a Class 4. He’s 1lb lower here and also drops into a C6. It’s a hands and heels apprentice race so anything could happen but he’s got one of the better, and more experienced riders up so could be worth a small ew at a big price. 

B/Fwd L15's -40.26 RC Incl L15's -40.04
Had 2 L15's on the Daily L15 = 5 pts
2.15 Lin Havana Force 2.10 pts win at 3.55 and saver bet 0.50 ew 4p on Pentacle at 8/1
= 8.10 stakes today
Good luck to all punting today

8.00 Newcastle - CAPTAIN WENTWORTH 4/1 Coral ( 9/2 with 888sport , best price ) 3rd 9/2 👎