calva decoy

115 Kemp - MR ONE MORE 
150 Kemp - THE BIG BREAKAWAY 
225 Kemp - SILVER STREAK 
300 Kemp - SANTINI 
205 Weth - SNOW LEOPARDESS 
Good luck to all , looking forward to a fun competition , thanks to P.L. for hosting this ?
 
 
 

Some cracking action at Santa Anita this evening with no fewer than three Grade 1's , however I will have to record on Sky Sports Racing as I'll probably be ??? by then.
11.17 - SHARING 13/8 bet365
Last seen out running at Ascot where put up a good show running on to finish 2nd on good to soft that day , is up in trip today & on firmer ground , is the worthy favourite for ex UK based trainer H.Motion. 
11.51 - NASHVILLE 6/4 bet365
Will attempt to make all from pillar to post & was a wide winner margin LTO as well as given an easy time of it over last 2f . The previously disqualified Charlatan is the main threat.
2 singles & double ( not gonna get rich )

As in previous years the Naps competition will be taking a break in line with that taken by the BHA. There is no UK or Irish racing on Wednesday, Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.
To compensate for the reduced racing days the minimum bets requirement for December will be reduced to 13.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a happy Christmas and a prosperous and healthy new year.

Wrong thread / day Mr .Jol .

Two early doors at Sha Tin
700 - STAR SUPERIOR 8/1 ew sky bet 
835 - SKY SHOW 9/1 ew sky bet ( 4 places ). 4th
Christophe Soumillon has quite a few rides on today's card , not sure if he's staying for the season to enhance the bank balance or if restrictions see him having to stay put albeit Ryan Moore who won 2 of 4 Group 1's last Sunday on International Day managed a healthy return on the UK a/w scene this week.
445 Southwell - WRATH OF HECTOR 15/2 ew betvictor. 1st
In form trainer & course specialist M.Appleby sends his charge here who's been placed 2/3 last excursions here , T.Ladd takes welcome 3Lbs off , good draw in stall 4 .
 

150 Ascot - Saint De Vassy 5/1 sky bet £ back if 2nd 3rd or 4th.  ?
The 10Lb rise for 11L win at Exeter will need to see him stepping up his game in this higher class race & upped the extra 2f in trip but is still fresh from 1 run this season & a 27 day break won't mind conditions & trainer having a superb season.
150 Ascot - Gardefort 28/1 betfair ( 4 places ). 2nd 33/1
Has had a 588 day break but lots of Venetia Williams charges this season have had 2-300 day breaks & ran well 1st time out , has won 3 of 6 career wins on soft & heavy with a further 9 placed efforts from 38 career starts & getting absolute lumps of weight of most of the field.
335 Belfast Banter 12/1 betfair ( 6 places )  5th ?
The obligatory Irish raider who've done very well on Saturdays , a bit of a quirk & quick tip after having eye on The Jam Man in 2.25 now a non runner .
Tip has 2 wins & 7 placed efforts from 14 starts , only out of first 3 once in last 6 runs , has a flyweight & won't mind conditions.
 

Mister Malarky  1pt  win   3 00 ascot   19.5 betfair 
Night Edition   3 35 ascot   1pt  win  34/1  betfair
Higest  Sun   2 40  Haydock  1pt  win  11/1  betfair
Mujid  6 00  Wolvs   1pt  win  win  28.32  betfair 
Poyle Vinne  Wolvs  1pt  win  22/1  betfair
Typhoon  Ten  1pt  win  19.20  betfair

150 Ascot - Saint De Vassy 5/1 sky bet £ back if 2nd 3rd or 4th.  ?
The 10Lb rise for 11L win at Exeter will need to see him stepping up his game in this higher class race & upped the extra 2f in trip but is still fresh from 1 run this season & a 27 day break won't mind conditions & trainer having a superb season.
150 Ascot - Gardefort 28/1 betfair ( 4 places ). 2nd 33/1
Has had a 588 day break but lots of Venetia Williams charges this season have had 2-300 day breaks & ran well 1st time out , has won 3 of 6 career wins on soft & heavy with a further 9 placed efforts from 38 career starts & getting absolute lumps of weight of most of the field.
335 Belfast Banter 12/1 betfair ( 6 places )  5th ?
The obligatory Irish raider who've done very well on Saturdays , a bit of a quirk & quick tip after having eye on The Jam Man in 2.25 now a non runner .
Tip has 2 wins & 7 placed efforts from 14 starts , only out of first 3 once in last 6 runs , has a flyweight & won't mind conditions.
 

All prices Bet365:
4.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Gloucestershire @ 25/1
Big price on debut but is entered in the Derby and both of his half-siblings received ratings over 100 so is bred to be decent. Both siblings also won first time out so at the price, I thought he was worth chancing.
5.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Rainbow Sign @ 12/1
Has been well held in three novice events to date but was always unlikely to threaten against some superior rivals. Shaped okay however and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark. Is well drawn and related to a decent type so I think we can expect more this evening with Luke Morris on board.
5.30 Kempton - 2pts win Dusty Damsel @ 5/1
This one has tumbled down the weights but goes well over a mile on the all-weather and can land this prize. Was a fast finishing 3rd, albeit well held, last time out but that came against rivals rated in the 60s and this is significantly easier. Hopefully will get a good pace to aim at and I think she's can pick them up late on.
6.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Island Storm @ 33/1
There's lots of things that need to go right for this one as plenty of excuses have been made for poor runs in the past but is well handicapped on old form and gets conditions to suit here. Has twice run over 1m4f recently which just is way too far and a mile is where its best form has come. Ran okay in first time blinkers at Newcastle two runs back and under similar conditions today, is worth a small investment at a huge price.

There average meetings in the UK but the BIG money meeting is at Sha Tin a few Irish , French , Japanese & Australian raiders hoping to fill their boots.
425- Trust Me  2nd
455- Stunning Impact  3rd
525- Natural Storm  2nd
715- Super Football  2nd
910- Sky Field 
950- Super Wealthy 
WIN YANKEE IN THE 4 GROUP 1's
600- EXULTANT evens   2nd
640- HOT KING PRAWN 9/4
750- GOLDEN SIXTY 4/5  1st
830- FURORE 11/4
All prices sky bet 
Good day for Ryan Moore with 2 Group 1 wins , not good for me though drawing a blank with my Yankee , but hey ho !
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

There average meetings in the UK but the BIG money meeting is at Sha Tin a few Irish , French , Japanese & Australian raiders hoping to fill their boots.
425- Trust Me  2nd
455- Stunning Impact  3rd
525- Natural Storm  2nd
715- Super Football  2nd
910- Sky Field 
950- Super Wealthy 
WIN YANKEE IN THE 4 GROUP 1's
600- EXULTANT evens   2nd
640- HOT KING PRAWN 9/4
750- GOLDEN SIXTY 4/5  1st
830- FURORE 11/4
All prices sky bet 
Good day for Ryan Moore with 2 Group 1 wins , not good for me though drawing a blank with my Yankee , but hey ho !
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Nice one Ted ( sounds like the Fast Show ? ) thought you'd have had a tickle on that one ? 
You done Make Good in the 2.25 ?
Was 7/1 ew sky bet this morning .

Wolves Trio 
415 PINK JAZZ 11/2 ew bet365 ( nb ). 1st 13/2
Trainer S.Curran 5/15 last saddled , horse previous CD winner has 1st time blinkers & tongue tie , T.Greatrex taking 3Lb off , good chance of place as is finding 1 or 2 better.
515 ARTISTIC STREAK 28/1 ew sky bet ( long shot ) 3rd 50/1
Is a previous distance winner , won time before last , E.McCain claiming the 7Lb in form of late , Dan Skelton has one entered , he can't have sent many to Wolves on a Saturday night in December before , worth noting !
615 QUIET PLACE 4/1 sky bet 
There's only Dundalk for Irish trainer J.W.Davison to send his horses to so on the back of 1 placed effort & two 4ths sends one across the seas to Wolves in this class 5 novice race.
Decent end to the day albeit the Irish raider was disappointing .
 
 
 
 

Wolves Trio 
415 PINK JAZZ 11/2 ew bet365 ( nb ). 1st 13/2
Trainer S.Curran 5/15 last saddled , horse previous CD winner has 1st time blinkers & tongue tie , T.Greatrex taking 3Lb off , good chance of place as is finding 1 or 2 better.
515 ARTISTIC STREAK 28/1 ew sky bet ( long shot ) 3rd 50/1
Is a previous distance winner , won time before last , E.McCain claiming the 7Lb in form of late , Dan Skelton has one entered , he can't have sent many to Wolves on a Saturday night in December before , worth noting !
615 QUIET PLACE 4/1 sky bet 
There's only Dundalk for Irish trainer J.W.Davison to send his horses to so on the back of 1 placed effort & two 4ths sends one across the seas to Wolves in this class 5 novice race.
Decent end to the day albeit the Irish raider was disappointing .
 
 
 
 

Interesting read , I do several of these but being out of the house for work around 11 hours a day it's pretty impossible.
I'm surprised you've not mentioned the exchanges for value with b.o.g. being tightened up with lots of firms these days sometimes on the day .
I too keep a notebook on my bets totals won & lost & am pretty consistent year on year generally losing a little but I don't punt big more of a fun hobby & like all punters have good months & bad months.
It was strange to see people flocking to the rails to have a bet in your photo , I go around 10/12 times a year racing & probably use rails bookies once or twice for me they represent zero value especially in big handicaps , like you say , get your bets on early.
If you're ever lucky enough to go to on a stable visit forget about taking your clothes , the most important thing is pen & paper write down lots of little tips the trainers tell you , happy punting everyone !

See Saturday's 2.47 at Wetherby for confirmation of the above ?

I will add my 2 bob's  worth.  When doing the form  longest travelling horses always worth checking out  more pacfically horse from Ireland running in uk and vise versa and esp ones  that are not running in major races  but low to medium grade races  they are not travelling over for an expensive day out for the hell of it. Horses that run well at certain tracks and certain races always worth a second look. I am not  scared to back outsiders if  i find a  good reason too as i can usually find a good reason  not to back  favourites / market leaders!
Only ever bet what you can afford as dead   certs do  get beat.
Handy little site below.
https://www.irishracing.com/irish-runners-in-uk.html

Interesting read , I do several of these but being out of the house for work around 11 hours a day it's pretty impossible.
I'm surprised you've not mentioned the exchanges for value with b.o.g. being tightened up with lots of firms these days sometimes on the day .
I too keep a notebook on my bets totals won & lost & am pretty consistent year on year generally losing a little but I don't punt big more of a fun hobby & like all punters have good months & bad months.
It was strange to see people flocking to the rails to have a bet in your photo , I go around 10/12 times a year racing & probably use rails bookies once or twice for me they represent zero value especially in big handicaps , like you say , get your bets on early.
If you're ever lucky enough to go to on a stable visit forget about taking your clothes , the most important thing is pen & paper write down lots of little tips the trainers tell you , happy punting everyone !

Interesting read , I do several of these but being out of the house for work around 11 hours a day it's pretty impossible.
I'm surprised you've not mentioned the exchanges for value with b.o.g. being tightened up with lots of firms these days sometimes on the day .
I too keep a notebook on my bets totals won & lost & am pretty consistent year on year generally losing a little but I don't punt big more of a fun hobby & like all punters have good months & bad months.
It was strange to see people flocking to the rails to have a bet in your photo , I go around 10/12 times a year racing & probably use rails bookies once or twice for me they represent zero value especially in big handicaps , like you say , get your bets on early.
If you're ever lucky enough to go to on a stable visit forget about taking your clothes , the most important thing is pen & paper write down lots of little tips the trainers tell you , happy punting everyone !

Interesting read , I do several of these but being out of the house for work around 11 hours a day it's pretty impossible.
I'm surprised you've not mentioned the exchanges for value with b.o.g. being tightened up with lots of firms these days sometimes on the day .
I too keep a notebook on my bets totals won & lost & am pretty consistent year on year generally losing a little but I don't punt big more of a fun hobby & like all punters have good months & bad months.
It was strange to see people flocking to the rails to have a bet in your photo , I go around 10/12 times a year racing & probably use rails bookies once or twice for me they represent zero value especially in big handicaps , like you say , get your bets on early.
If you're ever lucky enough to go to on a stable visit forget about taking your clothes , the most important thing is pen & paper write down lots of little tips the trainers tell you , happy punting everyone !

Ten Pointers to better punting 
Having been a punter for the best part of 40 years and finally now become successful at it I thought it would be interesting and hopefully of some use to share some of my thoughts/ideas. So here are ten points that you can digest and then agree or disagree with.
 
1.         Keep a figure of EVERY bet you have. Be it on a spread sheet or in a pocket notebook. It really does make you become more disciplined as to how much you’re actually winning or losing. We’ve all got that friend who has told us or gone to social media to show us their big win which is fantastic, we all love to see these bookie bashing bets but what about the losers? You’ll be surprised how easily it is to whittle away winnings without realising. I actually work on a week to week basis in that I try and win every week and will do a figure at the end of the week to run forward to the yearly one and then start afresh on the next Monday.
 
2.         Watch as much racing as you can. It’s not like the (good?) old days when you needed reels of video tape to record races you can access replays of the day’s races in various ways. There’s nothing like watching the race with your own naked eye and making your opinion rather than someone else’s. I personally subscribe to the Racing Post ultimate monthly service which for £34.95 monthly gives me access to all the race replays as well as access to the digital paper the night before which actually breaks down to just over a pound a day which if you’re serious about making money at the game is nothing.
 
3.         Follow Twitter !! If you don’t already sign up and follow as many trainer, jockeys, punters, journalists etc. that are horse racing related. You’ll be surprised how many gems you actually pick up about a horse’s well being or not. Nowadays many trainers use this medium to break news of injuries and have columns with bookmakers. Absorb as much information as you can, you’ll never know when it may come in handy.
 
4.         Become a weather forecaster! The most important factor in finding winners in my opinion is the ground. I don’t believe the old saying that good horses go on any ground. To me that’s nonsense! Most horses have a preference and if you can find that through the form book, or breeding, or trainer stable files then use it to your advantage. With 48 hour declarations here to stay by the looks of things just remember when placing a bet does this horse handle/like the likely ground conditions? One of my most used website's is the Met Office one !!
 
5.         Stable form can be so important. A bit of an obvious one this but if a trainer is on the cold list then I would seriously be shying away from having a go on one of his or hers. On the flip side if a trainer has hit a streak of form then we can bet with much more confidence. Oh and its not just winners we should be looking at as trainers can be in form without hitting the number one spot all the time. I like to look at the Racing Post trainers last 14 days runners and dismiss any big price runners but look closely at their runners under 8/1 and how they have they run. If a trainer has had 0 winners from his last 20 runners but 14 of those were 20/1 or bigger but the 6 that were prominent in the betting were all placed I think you could safely say that they are in good form. 
 
6.         Official Handicap ratings are important. I love analysing each horse’s handicap mark and its fascinating when they find a winning mark that he or she can win off. We may find that they then struggle off of their new marks for a while (or even longer) but when they find themselves slipping back down to their ’winning’ mark and conditions suit then that’s the time to be very interested in them especially if they’ve shown enough in their previous run to give you encouragement.
 
7.         Take the very best price. Again an obvious one but you’ll be surprised how many punters have just the one account who they’re very loyal to. Open as many accounts as possible and when having a bet use an odds comparison site (I personally use Oddschecker although bear in mind that two of the biggies in Ladbrokes and Corals have now left that site). For example constantly taking that extra half a point here and there will make a difference to your overall figure (see pointer 1.) and could make the difference from a winning day or a losing one. Also take advantage of the firms enhanced place terms with many offering these nowadays. I’m a bit torn whether to take 1-4th odds 1-2-3 or 1-5th odds 1-2-3-4 as the difference between 1-4th and 1-5th is surprisingly quite high. If I have the choice I tend to split my bet half and half so covering my stake if the horse does finish in the enhanced extra place spot.
 
8.         Check collateral form. When analysing a race it’s always worth checking how their previous race/s have worked out especially in maidens. You may find a Newmarket maiden for example where five have run since and come nowhere near troubling the judge whilst in contrast at a lesser track say Lingfield may have a maiden where three winners have come out of the race.
 
9.         Become an odds compiler! It’s not for everyone but I’ve been pricing races for 35 years plus now and it gives you a real feel for the race. If you havn’t tried before give it a try (I’ll do a further piece in the future on how to price a race). The benefit of it is that you are basically pitting your expertise against the major bookmaker’s odds compilers who have so many races to price nowadays that if you specialise on a particular race you may just find an edge. As an example If you believe Horse A is a 6/4 chance in your opinion and the bookmakers price him up at 2/1 then if you’re confident in your own ability you’ll be more than happy to take half a point over your price. It’s worth doing if you havn’t done it before.
 
10.       Read as much as you can. Nowadays there’s so many publications that can help punters none more so than the excellent Stable files that can be found in the Racing Post or Weekender. The Attheraces website also has several features on trainer’s thoughts on their horses. Professional punter Mark Holder recently tweeted that he thought that these ‘stable files’ should be dismissed but I totally dis-agree and have backed many a winner on something a trainer has said in such copy about a certain horse’s ability. 
 
As I mentioned at the beginning of this piece, I’ve been a punter for over 40 years (my first ever bet was a £1 win ante-post bet placed by my Mum on my behalf when I was 16 on an unraced Vincent O’Brien 2yo called Try My Best for the 2000 Guineas that I had read about in the Sporting Life at 66/1! And for those of you that don’t know the horse he went unbeaten through his 2yo career and ended up at Newmarket on 2000 Gns day an odds on shot only to trail in last and be retired! I think the anticipation throughout the Winter of him winning is probably the reason why I still love an ante-post bet to this day). 
Everyday I learn something new about this great game and the day I think I know everything is the day I’ll give it all up. 
I hope you enjoyed this feature on better betting and feel free to comment below on anything you agree or disagree about.
The Brigadier
 
 

Let's hope some clever fog moves in to replace it ? 
1.40 Punch - BATTLEOVERDOYEN 7/1 ew bet365 last night , now 5's.
Beat Easy Game & Samcro in Grade 2 at Down Royal over 19f on yeilding 36 days ago ,  3/4 Mullins runners may need the run Chris's Dream back 3.5f in trip from Grade 1 at Down Royal represents the biggest threat.

Let's hope some clever fog moves in to replace it ? 
1.40 Punch - BATTLEOVERDOYEN 7/1 ew bet365 last night , now 5's.
Beat Easy Game & Samcro in Grade 2 at Down Royal over 19f on yeilding 36 days ago ,  3/4 Mullins runners may need the run Chris's Dream back 3.5f in trip from Grade 1 at Down Royal represents the biggest threat.

Let's hope some clever fog moves in to replace it ? 
1.40 Punch - BATTLEOVERDOYEN 7/1 ew bet365 last night , now 5's.
Beat Easy Game & Samcro in Grade 2 at Down Royal over 19f on yeilding 36 days ago ,  3/4 Mullins runners may need the run Chris's Dream back 3.5f in trip from Grade 1 at Down Royal represents the biggest threat.