Villa Chris

Big jumps race in Ireland worth 270k euros, The Galway Plate. Will look forward to going through it on a bit. Any thoughts ?

I've done ASH TREE MEADOW 11/1 ( 5 places ) only 1Lb higher than when finishing 5th in race last year negated by claimer taking 7Lb off . 1st 👍
5.02 Perth - AL KALIA 10/3 Sky bet , up against the odds on favourite but S.Crawfords yard are in form . 👎
Flat : 
445 Goodwood - SIRONA 10/1 Bet365 ( 4 places ) I've done well last couple of seasons with German bred horses in the UK with cut in the ground from 8-12f though this a little high in the weights . non runner , surprisingly , ah well , still a winner , kind of 😆

It didn’t seem too bad yesterday but obviously the rain arrived overnight . Galway got off lightly I think and the going has gone from Yielding to Good/Yielding which favours my selection and the likes of Hewick. Hewick will have to run to 170+ to win this I’d have thought which is an almighty ask. 

It didn’t seem too bad yesterday but obviously the rain arrived overnight . Galway got off lightly I think and the going has gone from Yielding to Good/Yielding which favours my selection and the likes of Hewick. Hewick will have to run to 170+ to win this I’d have thought which is an almighty ask. 

I noticed his price earlier and thought that’s too big surely 

It didn’t seem too bad yesterday but obviously the rain arrived overnight . Galway got off lightly I think and the going has gone from Yielding to Good/Yielding which favours my selection and the likes of Hewick. Hewick will have to run to 170+ to win this I’d have thought which is an almighty ask. 

It didn’t seem too bad yesterday but obviously the rain arrived overnight . Galway got off lightly I think and the going has gone from Yielding to Good/Yielding which favours my selection and the likes of Hewick. Hewick will have to run to 170+ to win this I’d have thought which is an almighty ask. 

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

Day Three of Glorious Goodwood although with the weather forecast it hardly looks Glorious! Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes over 10F for fillies and mares and is run at 15:35. ITV are again showing the first four races from the meeting and here are my thoughts and selections to help us beat the bookies again today.   Goodwood 13:50 A cracking eighteen runner class 2 three year old’s only handicap kicks us off today which will be run over 10F. Current favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Perfuse who has already shown his liking for very soft ground when winning his maiden at Nottingham on officially heavy ground. He was better than his finishing position of fifth when beaten 6L by Desert Hero in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot and will appreciate dropping back to 10F here. With Ryan Moore on board, a favourable draw in stall seven and the ground in his favour he’s the main bet. Its double figure prices all the others with soft ground loving Royal Rhyme likely to run a big race. Kevin Ryan’s Lope De Vega colt is two from two on soft ground including when running out a 5L winner at Newmarket in May. Back on soft ground he can be competitive from stall 2 and appeals each way with additional places. The Richard Fahey trained Have Secret is another with winning soft ground form and at a nice price could be involved in the finish having finished fourth in two of the summers better 3-year-old middle distance handicaps. Others worth a mention are the handicap debutant of William Haggas’s Garden Route but he’s untested on a soft surface whilst the same can be said about Andrew Balding’s Alsakib who’s won his last two races. Andrew Balding also saddles Goldsborough who’s already won here and on heavy ground so on this handicap debutant is an interesting runner at a very big price especially if the ground rides very soft. Perfuse is a strong fancy and is the main play here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Have Secret from stall one.   PERFUSE 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill HAVE SECRET 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 14:25 With the defection of a couple here we have ten two year olds going to post here for this 6F Group 2 Richmond Stakes where there is very little previous soft ground form.
Simon & Ed Crisford's runner Vandeek made a remarkable winning debut at Nottingham a fortnight ago when falling out of the stalls, losing some 10 lengths but ran on like a smart horse to win going away by 3/4L at the end. That was on good to soft ground so he may well be less inconvenienced by the ground conditions than most. He looks the one to beat with the Irish runner Unquestionable now a non runner.
The other runner at the head of the market is Clive Cox’s Jasour who ran out a 2L winner of the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago at the July Meeting but has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here and has only run on fast ground (he was pulled out on his debut run at Newmarket in May due to soft ground) so may well struggle on the prevailing ground.
Sketch looked good on his debut twelve days when winning by 5L at Newbury and is another who could be prominent if handing the ground.
It’s Vandeek for me to prove his debut win was no flash in the pan.
VANDEEK 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor
  Goodwood 15:00 Just the six have declared for this St Leger trial, the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 12F for three year olds only. Four of the sextet are proven on soft ground with the duo who which aren’t being Burdett Road who also has plenty on and Canberra Legend and that pair are first two to be dismissed. Chesspiece looked good up at Hamilton a fortnight ago winning the Glasgow Stakes when making all and could well attempt similar tactics here today for father and son duo Simon & Ed Crisford. William Haggas’s Desert Hero is taking a step up in class having won a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot and has won on soft and heavy ground so will handle conditions better than most whilst Ralph Beckett’s Artistic Star was a two year old maiden winner on soft ground and having finished 7th in the Derby ran third to King Of Steel at Royal Ascot. The one i like though is the Aiden O’Brien runner Espionage who is the highest rated of the sextet and has the services of Ryan Moore. A runner up (beaten a head) on heavy ground in a Group 1 as a juvenile he made a winning re-appearance in listed company at Roscommon a month ago and can take this en route to a tilt at the St Leger which he is currently a top priced 8/1 chance. I’ll be backing him for today’s race and is also worth chancing ante-post for the St Leger run at Doncaster in September.   ESPIONAGE 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365 ESPIONAGE (St Leger) 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123   Goodwood 15:35 Just the six line up here for the day’s feature race, the 10f Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes for three year olds and upwards fillies and mares. It’s a fascinating match up with the top French three year old against the best of her elders of her own sex. Blue Rose Cen is a very smart filly trained by Christopher Head who trains in France. She has won the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks this season in good style, winning the latter by 4L under Aurelian Lemaire who is in the saddle today. She has plenty of form on soft and even heavy ground so conditions will hold no fears for the French challenger. She is however rated 2lb inferior to last year’s winner, the John & Thady Gosden trained Nashwa who found her form in no uncertain manner when bolting up in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting last month coming home 5L to the good from Remarquee. She too has form on very soft ground so conditions shouldn’t hinder her too much. It’s a fascinating match up and I fully expect them to fight out the finish. At the respective prices I’ll have to go with Hollie Doyle and Nashwa but it will be no shock if the French filly wins. Roger Varian’s Al Husn actually beat Nashwa at Newcastle on the all-weather track back in June but she’s not certain to be as suited by wet turf and I expect Nashwa to turn the tables here today. Aiden O’Brien’s Never Ending Story is held by Nashwa on Newmarket form and this is a race to watch and savour with my selection being Nashwa.   NASHWA 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365   All odds were available at time of writing  

https://www.racingpost.com/news/previews/going-change-at-goodwood-as-ground-softens-following-6.8mm-of-rain-overnight-live-updates-aKGt45f3bPwY

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

I noticed his price earlier and thought that’s too big surely 

Big jumps race in Ireland worth 270k euros, The Galway Plate. Will look forward to going through it on a bit. Any thoughts ?

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

ĶI've got a tenner free bet on Galway plate so might as well rate it and have a go !!
The goffer  9.0 11/1
Visionary   8.9 12/1
Lifetime ambition  8.8 16/1
Hewick     8.5 
Fury Road   8.5 
Kilcruit   8.3 
Hard race ....the goffer has trainer and is in right weight zone and is top 3 on villa Chris's above  so I think I have him as my free tenner .. as good as any 
I'll have a fiver on 2nd and 3rd rated for cover  bets  .....cmon the beauty's!!

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

I noticed his price earlier and thought that’s too big surely 

Get ready for a worked example of regression to the mean! I was briefly disappointed that the last one won as I thought I’d get to find out whether I get double the odds for one winner or not?

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

Big jumps race in Ireland worth 270k euros, The Galway Plate. Will look forward to going through it on a bit. Any thoughts ?

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

well likewise  i bet with a blackmarket bookmaker who gets on in the far east and mines not the first bet he's taken on it he tells  me