Villa Chris

7.00 Aintree Cracking Destiny 11/4
7.35 Aintree Hurricane Ali 11/4 2nd 
7.55 Fakenham Sirobbie 4/1 2nd 
8.10 Aintree Lermoos Legend 11/4 2nd 
5 points win each all bog . 

7.00 Aintree Cracking Destiny 11/4
7.35 Aintree Hurricane Ali 11/4 2nd 
7.55 Fakenham Sirobbie 4/1 2nd 
8.10 Aintree Lermoos Legend 11/4 2nd 
5 points win each all bog . 

The calm before the storm? We’re only four days away from the greatest flat meeting in the world in Royal Ascot but we’ve still got seven races today from Sandown, York and a sole handicap from Chester beamed to us by ITV and with the ground fast at all three meetings here are my thoughts to beat the bookies this Saturday.   York 14:00 York’s card kicks off with the Queen Mother’s Cup run over 1M 4F, a handicap for female amateur riders only. As always in this race we have a good sized field of 15. Adrian Paul Keatley has booked crack Irish amateur Miss Jodie Townend, sister of Paul and has as good a chance as any here having won over course and distance last month. The six year old has actually won a half decent handicap hurdle at Market Rasen since and should be thereabouts. Last year’s winning jockey Miss Alice Stevens rides Ian William’s Dream Harder who was a bit unlucky under William Buick at Chester last time although has to prove himself on very fast ground. One horse who does look particularly well handicapped on his National Hunt form is the Brian Ellison trained Impulsive One who’s rated as high as 131 over timber when trained by Nicky Henderson and reverts back to the flat now rated just 79 so using the old theory of 40lb between the two codes puts him in here with a big shout. He’s my tentative each way bet in this wide open handicap.   IMPULSIVE ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Sandown 14:15 Thirteen go to post for this 1M class 2 0-100 handicap. It has an open look about it although if there is one horse who may just be ahead of his mark here it’s probably one of the two three year olds in the contest down the bottom of the handicap in Charlie Hills’ Bodorgan. He made his handicap/re-appearance debut in the valuable Betfred Silver Bowl at Haydock last month when despite finding trouble in running finished 5th beaten 4 3/4L to the well supported favourite Covey. But for finding trouble two out he may well have been placed and off of the same mark and with champion jockey William Buick booked is the one to be with here. The only slight negative is his draw in stall 10 of 13 but I’m sure Buick will have a plan and can overcome that wide draw. The other three year old Zu Run, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy is drawn even wider than the selection but has place claims along with the likes of Helm Rock (drawn even wider in 13) and Baltimore Boy who finished just behind him at Ascot in a boys race last time. Ryan Moore takes the ride for the Sir Michael Stoute trained New Dimension which is always interesting although we haven’t seen him for 293 days. One horse that’s worth keeping an eye on here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained First View who we haven’t seen since the Dubai Carnival 127 days ago.   BODORGAN 2 points win @ 4/1 Betfred   York 14:35 A competitive class 3 7F 0-95 handicap for three year olds and upwards has attracted 13 runners. Darkness, trained by David O’Meara hasn’t won since joining O’Meara from France some 14 starts ago but has been knocking on the door recently having just been claimed close home at Goodwood last time and off of the same mark has to be on the short list. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Wild Lion is an interesting runner in first time cheek pieces and is best watched closely in the market after a 113 day layoff whilst Geoffrey Harker’s veteran ten year old Scottish Summit arrives in excellent form and despite his age shouldn’t be dismissed. The only three year old in the race is Richard Fahey’s Indian Falcon who is yet another with claims. A wide open contest where bets should be kept to a minimum and I’ll take a chance on the Godolphin runner Wild Lion who although yet to win on the turf in five attempts is still lightly raced enough to make a mark under Kieran O’Neill.   WILD LION 1/2 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Sandown 14:50 Only nine have declared for this listed Milton Colts Scurry Stakes to be run over 5F for three year olds only. The draw is not as important as days gone by although I do feel drawn on the rail on the far side (low numbers) is the place to be. Richard Fahey’s Great State has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his listed success at York last month when defeating Pillow Talk by 2 1/2L although the runner up that day has been soundly beaten since by one of his opponents today in the shape of George Boughey’s Perdika who is the other runner here to carry a 3lb penalty having won a listed contest at Chantilly in France a fortnight ago. My worry with her is that she appears to have been kept away from very fast ground although to be fair to her that latest victory did come on good ground. I’m keen to take the pair of them on with the highly promising Roger Varian trained, Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum owned Tajalla. He’s unbeaten in two starts at Newmarket 14 months ago on his debut and when re-appearing at Hamilton six weeks ago when making hard work of it to scrape home from Silent Words (4th to Great State since). That form alone will probably not be good enough here but it was his first start for 388 days and must surely have benefited from the outing and with David Egan on board can improve to take this valuable sprint.   TAJALLA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor   York 15:05 The 1M 6F Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup is a listed contest which has attracted just seven runners. The winner here gets an automatic entry in The Ebor over course and distance in July. The best in here at these weights is Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn who is more than capable especially if give an easy lead as he was in last year’s Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor meeting when beating current Gold Cup favourite Coltrane by 14L over 2M. There was nothing wrong with his 4th in the Yorkshire Cup over course and distance last time with the horse that at he finished just behind him Siskany winning a Grade 2 in North America since. His main danger here will be the John & Thady Gosden trained Israr who has claims to be the best bred horse running anywhere today being by Muhaarar out of the great mare Taghrooda who won the Oaks and the King George at Ascot. His runner up last time to Haskoy in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury was a decent effort and she steps upto 1M 6F for the first time today. Roberto Escobar won this race two years ago and bounced back to form when winning the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown over two miles last month. That was a weak renewal of the race and he has to carry a 5lb penalty here which will make it tough. This can be fought out by Israr and Quickthorn with preference marginally for the latter who may just get an easy lead.   QUICKTHORN 1 point win @ 2/1 Paddy Power   Chester 15:20 A valuable 7F 127 yards class 2 three year olds only handicap is up next which, as always at Chester, the draw is highly significant. The current favourite Man Of Eden is due to run on Friday evening at Goodwood so there is a big possibility that he won’t turn up prompting a rule 4. He was an eye-catcher last time at Goodwood and were he to rock up here would be a player from stall 6. William Haggas has hit a rich vein of form this week with an across the card treble on Wednesday and his Tafreej has shown enough in two handicap starts this season to warrant plenty of respect here under Cieren Fallon. It’s hard to fancy those drawn out very wide as they have a mountain to climb before even leaving the gate so from a punting view we can put a line through the likes of Venetian (drawn 12), Saxon King (10) and In These Shoes (11). The bottom weight Sophia’s Starlight is the one to be with here from an attractive draw in stall 2. She’s a carefree front runner who can take a hold but showed last time at Wetherby (and earlier this season at Wolverhampton) that she can be very effective if allowed to get on the front end and clock her own fractions. She did it well at Wetherby from the front in a time 0.91 secs faster than the older horse handicap later on the card and off of just a 3lb higher mark we look sure to get a decent run for our money from the Grant Tuer trained, Nick Bradley owned filly.   SOPHIAS STARLIGHT 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:40 The feature race of the day is the Oakmere Homes Supporting Macmilan Sprint Handicap, a 6F handicap for three year olds only rated 0-105. It’s a wide open renewal this year with bookmakers currently betting 7-1 the field. Kevin Ryan saddles a trio of horses with chances including Quintus Arrius, a winner at Hamilton last time and now 6lb higher and Washington Heights who’s form ties in nicely with the five timer chasing Quinault trained by Stuart Williams. The former is actually 4lb better off for a length with Quinault so there shouldn’t be much between that pair. The only horse in the field who has future Group entries is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s top weight Mill Stream who was a progressive juvenile but was well beaten on his re-appearance in the Sandy Lane at Haydock and there may be doubts as to whether he’s even trained on. Charlie Hills’ Shadwell owned colt Rabaah is also making his handicap debut following two impressive victories on the all weather and wasn’t disgraced when 5th to the improving Shaquille in listed company at Newbury last month. He had horses rated 106 and 100 behind him that day when dead heating for 5th place with the 117 rated Noble Style so an initial mark of 97 may actually be lenient if that run can be believed. It’s a wide open contest with chances for many but I’ll take a chance that Jim Crowley’s mount Rabaah is well enough in to beat his rivals.   RABAAH 1 point each way @ 10/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   All odds are accurate at time of writing.  

Great and interesting read / analysis of TV races by The Brigadier.....will back some of the selections, but am saving amo for Ascots 5days......

This Saturday sees the running of the Macmillan Sprint Handicap at York. This is the biggest charity meeting in Britain and has raised approximately £10 million for good causes.
This heritage handicap is for three-year-olds. It is run over 6 furlongs and the off time is 15.40.
22 go to post and with many bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Those horses drawn in stalls 1 to 7 have by far the best record with 6 wins from 53 runs and a profit of 38 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have just 2 wins from 96 runs with a loss of 59 points.
Horses that finished 3rd, 4th or 5th last time have a good record with 4 wins from 40 runs and a profit of 40 points.
The ideal weight range is 9st 2 lbs to 9st 8lbs with 4 wins from 36 runs and a profit of 21 points.
 
Only 1 horse matches these criteria.
RABAAH 11/1
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

7.00 Aintree Cracking Destiny 11/4
7.35 Aintree Hurricane Ali 11/4 2nd 
7.55 Fakenham Sirobbie 4/1 2nd 
8.10 Aintree Lermoos Legend 11/4 2nd 
5 points win each all bog . 

7.00 Aintree Cracking Destiny 11/4
7.35 Aintree Hurricane Ali 11/4 2nd 
7.55 Fakenham Sirobbie 4/1 2nd 
8.10 Aintree Lermoos Legend 11/4 2nd 
5 points win each all bog . 

York 1.50     Menelaus    6/1 EW       3 places          Won  15/2     55pt  
 
York 4.45       Motagally     11/1 EW       5 places    betfair
york 4.45       Lord of the Lodge     12/1 EW         5 places
 
Cork 5.25      Gabriellas Spirit     4/1
cork 5.25      Running Cool        6/1             Won      35 pt      
 
fairy 5.40      California goldrush      16/1 EW        4 places            3rd        15.75 pt 
fairy  5.40     One for mum             13/2  EW          4 places
 
fairy 6.15    Daamberdiplomat          10/3
fairy  6.15     Ice cold in alex               16/5 
 
Fairy 7.25       Vera Verto     6/1 EW        4 places              2nd       11.50 pt
 
fairy 8.30       No Hassle     8/1 EW        5 places              2nd
fairy 8.30      Tastyee         7/1 EW         5 places               3rd
 
2 wins 🏆 🏆 and  4 EW places.......so nice profit again 👍 .............a good week as 3 days ( mon / weds / today)  nice profit and 2 nice withdraws 💷 
 

York :
445- MOTAGALLY 12/1 eway bet365 ( 5 places ) 
521- BALHAMBAR 5/2 bet365 .

York .
Single. 
Royal Pleasure           16/1    6th
stk.5.00     rtn 85.00.
Good luck all. 

York.
Single. 
4.10. Mecca's Dutchess       16/1     unpl
stk.5.00      rtn 85.00.
Lucky 15.
1.30.Sand.  Notta Nother           5/1     2nd 
2.50.Chep. Dash Power             6/1    unpl
6.05. Goodw. Pink  Lily              9/2     unpl
5.21. York. Wor Willie               9/2       unpl
stk 7.50    rtn 1825,50.
Good luck all 

RESULTS UPDATE
At long last I am in a YTD profit.  One of my L15's and accas won with three winning selections and a non-runner.  This produced a profit of 189.53 points + a small return on an ew bet meant a profit for the day of 190.23.  After deducting my YTD loss of -133.92 I am now in YTD profit of 56.31

One NR and the rest blank 
 
lucky 15 Start date 17th May 2023 - 27.25

RESULTS UPDATE
3 winners and a non runner in my 2nd L15 and ew acca produced a profit of 189.53.  After taking account of the b/fwd loss of 50.32 it leaves a positive balance of 139.21.  This should pay for a few more 2 point L15's and accas

I personally think you should be offered your full stake back or have the option to replace your non runner with another horse.  

Yes.  I wondered what was going on.  Betfred has settled the bet at 89.15 for the L15 and 104.38 for the Acca = a profit of 189.53.  At least I'm now up on the cumulative bets by about 140.00 points 🙂

I personally think you should be offered your full stake back or have the option to replace your non runner with another horse.  

A bloody non runner again 

A bloody non runner again 

Newb 1.50       Point Louise     6/1 EW        4 places  betfair
newb 1.50       Fillyfudge        20/1 EW        4 places
 
Leop 6.30       Malacanne       14/1 EW         4 places
 
Worc  7.50     Melvich Bay     7/2  
 
Leop 8.00      Lauroline   15/2 EW                  4 places
Leop  8.00      Together Aclaim    10/1  EW         4 places          4th @ 16/1
 
small stakes 30pts total.....10.50 return......nice profit day Yesterday tho........also well done to guys with nice wins/profit 👍
 

Newbury. 
Single. 
1.50. Red Tele        4/1                unpl
stk 5.00    25.00
Patent. 
3.25. Inverlochy        5/1                          unpl                 
4.00. Persuation        5/1                          unpl
4.30. Sobiz                  10/11                     2nd
stk 3.50     75. 00
Good luck all. 

It's online now and I haven't told the bookmakers first!
 
Leopardstown 4.45
Jessica Harrington’s
Eternal silence 
Win
Rated 101 and third in the moyglare gp 1 stakes.
Problematic beforehand in the 1000 guineas.
If back on song should have too much for these and if an O’Brien horse would be 1/10 on.

4.00 newb 
Persuasion  8.4 11/2 
Lyndon b  8.2 15/2 
These 2 are a little clear of rest so I'll try 5pt ew both and forecasts 

7.20 Worcester Shantou Express 15/8 
Made all last time out and won comfortably. Up 6Ibs but still well handicapped and could take all the beating again here in this slightly tougher race. 
 
5 points win 

7.20 Worcester Shantou Express 15/8 
Made all last time out and won comfortably. Up 6Ibs but still well handicapped and could take all the beating again here in this slightly tougher race. 
 
5 points win