I was half-watching it in the casino in Blackpool, while supporting the victorious PL poker team.
It was a strange afternoon - first wanting Kane to miss a penalty and then wanting him to score one !
As I predicted the weather had a big affect on games up and down the country and on reading the reports in the Non League Paper today pretty much all of them mention how the weather affected the games. I certainly feel it was right to keep too small stakes and with two winning tips it meant there was another profit. I also think to a certain extent you can ignore what happened on Saturday given how bad conditions were. Also 6 of the 11 National League games had injury time goals in them with 5 of those having an effect on where the points went. That is a staggering fact and it does seem there are more injury time goals this season. Onto Tuesday and there is a full fixture list in the National League where I have 3 bets and a full fixture list in the Evo-Stik South Premier where I have the one tip.
Chester v Barrow
Having originally thought Marcus Bignot was going to get Chester winning football matches it hasn't quite worked out like that. Indeed after winning his first game in charge they have lost 3 of their next 4. They were awful against Kidderminster in the FA Cup last week and then lost 2-1 to Boreham Wood at the weekend. Bignot mentioned he may bring in a couple of new faces prior to this game as he looks to change the squad. Now having written all that I am tipping up Chester to win this. The main reason I am backing Chester is the price. I just can't understand how Chester are the price they are for this given the state of Barrow at the moment. In their last 8 league games they have picked up just 3 draws and they were dumped out of the FA Cup by Shaw Lane. Having signed a 2 and half year deal a month ago Micky Moore was sacked prior to the game against Ebbsfleet on Saturday which they went on to lose. So how on earth can the bookies make them such strong favourites away from home. Chester should be marginal favourites so the 11/5 with Bet 365/Betfred/Betfair has to be taken.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Macclesfield
I have to back Macclesfield again after siding with them on Saturday. That is now 5 league wins on the bounce giving them a 3 point advantage at the top and yet you can still back them at 3/1 to win this match. Again how have the bookies come up with that price. Opposing Dagenham was the other winning bet from Saturday as they lost to a 93rd minute OG against Wrexham. To be fair it sounded like it was a bit harsh as Dagenham had played well after having a man sent off in the first half. It does mean that Dagenham have only won 2 of their last 8 league games though and they might be feeling a bit leggy after playing in such hard conditions with 10 men on Saturday, plus they had the FA Cup replay last week. Macclesfield have also won more games away (6) than at home (4) and thus I would make them no bigger than 7/4 to win this.
Hartlepool v Tranmere
Whilst the injury time gods gave us a winner in Wrexham they also gave us a loser with Hartlepool as Sutton got their equaliser in the 94th minute. Still it meant the home sides good run of form has kept on going and I just can't make them 9/4 (Marathon) shots to win this game. I do think Tranmere have improved of late and I still think they can mount a title challenge, but they lost again at the weekend to Aldershot and actually created very little. My guess is after going a goal up Mellon decided to try and hang on to the advantage, but it didn't work as they conceded two goals late on. Now for ante-post reasons I hope Tranmere win and if they did it certainly wouldn't surprise, but Hartlepool are in better form at the moment and I would make them slight favourites not biggish outsiders.
Tiverton v Hereford
I did wonder if Hereford might take their time to adjust to this level after easing to a 2nd promotion last season and they did make a slow start very early on. Bar a 1-0 defeat to Farnborough last week though they have been flying since that start having won 8 of their last 10 league games and they have reached the FA Cup 1st Round. Ante-post wise I am sitting pretty with Slough and Kettering, but I am very worried about Hereford pipping them and I think they can beat Tiverton on Tuesday night. Tiverton have lost 5 league games this season and 4 of those have come in their last 6 games. The other two have been wins against a poor St Ives and on Saturday against Bishops Stortford. Hereford should prove too strong for them and I would have them shorter than the 34/25 that Marathon have them.
Chester 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365/Betfred/Betfair
Macclesfield 1pt @ 3/1 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon
Hereford 2pts @ 34/25 with Marathon
1.50 Warwick – Betfred Mobile Hampton Novices’ Chase (Listed Race)
With soft/heavy ground likely to be prevailing come Saturday, we’re looking for a novice with a battling attitude and plenty of stamina. Captain Chaos tries this trip for the first time, but this could be way too much of a test for him, even though the Skeltons do very well at Warwick.
American proved his heart for a slog in the mud at Exeter over three miles on his chasing debut in November, when outstaying Label Des Obeaux to win by just over two lengths. That form has worked out pretty well, with the fourth placed Missed Approach winning at Lingfield this week, reversing the form with Label Des Obeaux. The third in the race, Vieux Lille, finished behind Yala Enki, which is again a decent boost for the form. Harry Fry’s horse has been very fragile, hence just the four runs under rules in two years, but the soft ground will suit here and he will almost certainly be a big player in the race despite his inexperience.
Another lightly-raced chaser is Evan Williams’ Pobbles Bay, who’s been excellent over the larger obstacles so far and is two from two. His win at Chepstow, over three miles in softish ground, is good form, with Ibis Du Rheu comfortably held in behind and with the expected improvement after just two runs over fences, he should go well again here. The worry would be the class angle – he’s never run in anything close to being as competitive as this, so despite a promising start over fences, he’ll have to prove he’s up to contending races at this high a level.
Mystical Knight and Chef D’Oeuvre filled the first two places in a novices’ chase at Hereford last month and both could be in with a shout here, receiving 4lb from most of their rivals. Warren Greatrex’s six-year-old is another with very little experience – just seven runs under rules – and looked comfortably defeated by his rival that day at Hereford, so may have it all to do.
But Rebecca Curtis’ eight-year-old, Mystical Knight, looks to be a very exciting recruit to chasing in the famous JP McManus colours judging by that impressive debut success. He’s always been earmarked as a future stayer to keep an eye on and has never finished out of the top two in any race he’s contested. Although he has very little racing experience, with just the five starts under rules, this race has been won by horses with only one or two chase runs each and every time in the last four renewals, so he holds strong claims with just 11st on his back.
However, on a line through Duelling Banjos, who was a 23 length third in the race won by Mystical Knight, CHAMPERS ON ICE could well have the beating of that rival given that he slammed Duelling Banjos by 27 lengths eased down on his chasing debut. Obviously he does have to give Curtis’ challenger 4lb, but this is a horse that is battle-hardened over hurdles, reaching a rating of 146 after his excellent third in the attritional Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. On that form alone, he would take some beating here, but he’s always been a prototypical three mile chaser and after his chasing debut revealed that he seems to respect his fences better than hurdles, the sky could well be the limit for him. Soft ground and a battle are the ideal conditions for this grey and this could be an ideal stepping stone on the way to the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival. I think David Pipe’s horse is the real deal in terms of three mile novice chasers and if his jumping holds up, he’ll be very hard to beat in a race won by seven-year-olds for the past four runnings and by horses carrying a winners’ penalty in three of those four.
Advice
CHAMPERS ON ICE – 1pt win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)
2.25 Warwick – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)
This 3m2f Pertemps qualifier promises to be a gruelling test in the conditions but it has attracted a pretty strong field including Clondaw Cian who won in similarly testing conditions at Cheltenham in November. The seven-year-old ran on strongly up the hill on that occasion to win by three and a half lengths but he has another 5f to negotiate tomorrow. As a winner of an Irish point, you would have to be fairly confident that he will see out the extra trip but the main concern would be the extra weight that he has to carry. He has been raised 8lb on the back of his latest win and whilst that may not be insurmountable, it will be tough to carry top weight in this sort of ground so he is passed over.
Also at the head of the weights is Barney Dwan who has his first run in a handicap hurdle since landing the EBF Final at Sandown back in March. He was a ready winner on that occasion under Paddy Brennan and he is another who should be suited by the step up in trip. Since being beaten at Perth in April, he has had two runs over fences, making a juddering error at the final fence at Kempton before being brought down at Wincanton last time. At this stage, he doesn’t really seem to have taken to the larger obstacles so it is no surprise that connections have decided to revert to hurdles. He is 9lb higher than he was at Sandown and if the weight isn’t too much of a burden, it is hard to see him being out of the mix.
There are a couple of rapid improvers in the field including Lough Derg Leader who has won his last two starts since being stepped up to three miles. Tom Lacey’s six-year-old was much too good for his rivals on his latest start in November and he starts life off in handicaps on a mark of 131. Whilst his last two runs have come on a sounder surface, it is worth noting that he won his point-to-point in soft ground so he should be able to handle the conditions on Saturday. He is one of the more interesting runners in the field and it is hard to see him finishing out of the frame.
Harry Whittington also saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Kilgeel Hill who is having his first start for 679 days on Saturday. Formerly trained by Oliver Sherwood, the seven-year-old hasn’t been seen since finishing third to As De Mee in the EBF Final in March 2015. He had previously won over 2m6f so he is of some interest up in trip, but on the balance of probability, you would have to think that he will struggle to get home following such a lengthy absence.
One who should have no concerns fitness wise is Saint John Henry who won over course and distance on New Year’s Eve. Prior to that, the seven-year-old appeared to have lost his way but he wasn’t beaten far here last February and it might just be that he likes it here. Having said that, he is likely to find life tougher off a 7lb higher mark and looking at his form, he is far from certain to back up his latest display.
The race could centre on the two Nigel Twiston-Davies runners with Cogry bidding to follow up, having won on his return to hurdles at Cheltenham earlier this month. The eight-year-old really dug deep up the hill to get the better of Rocklander and despite going up 6lb, that just brings his hurdles mark in line with his chase mark. He is a thorough stayer, having finished third in the Midlands Grand National last season and if he races with the same enthusiasm as last time, it is hard to see him being too far away.
However, I slightly prefer the claims of his stablemate SCOTCHTOWN who just failed to carry a double penalty at Bangor in December. The five-year-old has won two of his four starts to date under rules and was running on again at the line last time on his first try at 3m. He has already won on soft ground so should relish the underfoot conditions and his initial mark of 130 looks fair enough on what he has done so far. What tips the scales in his favour is that Tom Humphries takes a useful 7lb off his back which could be crucial in what are likely to be attritional conditions. He looks to have more improvement to come now entering handicaps and he is just preferred over his more experienced stablemate.
Advice
SCOTCHTOWN – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill, Betway)
2.40 Kempton Park – The 32Red Lanzarote Hurdle.
One of the strongest trends when it comes to this race is that horses with high official ratings tend to struggle. To put an exact number on it, eight of the last ten winners were rated no higher than 140, although it could be argued that it is nine as Saphir Du Rheu, who won the race three years ago off a mark of 145 had Harry Derham taking 5lb off his back. Either way this is a strong pattern which would be a concern for the two to miss the cut in this year’s field: Old Guard and Modus.
Perhaps the reason for those higher rated horses struggling in recent years is that they carry higher weights than their lower rated rivals. This is backed up by the fact that eight of the last ten winners carried no more than 11st to victory. The top two as they appear on the racecard (Old Guard and Modus) both fall at this hurdle so suffer a double blow to their chances.
Recent renewals have also suggested that horses with low mileage have tended to be the ones to follow. Some of these horses have been on the go since October or November and too many runs during the season can often prevent them from running to the best of their ability. A significant statistic with regards to this race is that all but two of the last ten winners had no more than three runs during the season prior to coming here. This time around only Old Guard, Kalondra and Templeross fall foul of this stat.
In terms of age there is no doubt that six-year-olds have been the group to follow in recent years, having accounted for seven of the last ten winners of the race. They make up just less than half of the field this time around, those in the favoured group being Old Guard, Kalondra, Sam Red, Will O’The West, Bennys King and Templeross.
In races as competitive as this one, we often find that horses in form tend to carry that forward. A first two finish last time out is something that six of the last ten winners have had in common which bodes well for the sextet of Doesyourdogbite, Jaleo, Kalondra, Fountains Windfall, Bennys King and Little Boy Boru who all arrive on the back of positive results.
The final factor to take into account is the betting and although favourites only have a fair record (5/10), it is still best to focus on those towards the head of the market. In the last decade, only three winners have gone off at double-figure SPs so this is not a race in which to take a chance on a long shot. At the time of writing, Doesyourdogbite heads the market at 6/1, with Jaleo and Bennys King also available at single-figure prices.
Shortlist
BENNYS KING – 6/6
Doesyourdogbite – 5/6
Jaleo – 5/6
Conclusion
When we put all our trends together the standout performer is BENNYS KING who bids to give his trainer Venetia Williams a second consecutive victory in the race. The six-year-old is the only one of the fourteen runners to match all of our trends and he comes here on the back a win at Uttoxeter last time. He seemed to appreciate the step up to 2m4f which bodes well for this assignment and has only gone up 6lb on the back of that success. He has managed to sneak in towards the bottom of the weights here and with the yard having won this with an improver last year, they look to have another leading contender this time around.
The unbeaten Doesyourdogbite also makes the shortlist, despite missing out on the top spot courtesy of his age (5). Jonjo O’Neill’s gelding has won all of his three starts over hurdles to date including a competitive handicap over course and distance on Boxing Day. The handicapper hasn’t been too harsh in raising him just 6lb and despite that rise, it would be no surprise if there was further improvement to come.
The final member of the shortlist is Jaleo who made a winning return to action at Lingfield in December and like Doesyourdogbite, misses out on account of his age. The former John Ferguson-trained gelding has been raised 7lb on the back of his latest success but has only had the five starts over hurdles so there should be more to come from him. This is likely to be much more competitive than the race he won last time but it would be no surprise to see him in the mix.
Advice
BENNYS KING – 1pt win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James)
3.15 Kempton Park – The 32Red.com Handicap Steeple Chase.
A fairly competitive affair here but last year’s winner KRUZHLININ arrives in fine form, albeit over the smaller obstacles, and could prove tough to beat. Philip Hobbs’ charge landed this in fine style returning from nearly a year off the track twelve months ago and though he is now 8lb higher, he comes into the contest in good form and refreshed from a short break. He can be forgiven his opening gambit at Chepstow in April as that merely seemed to be a pipe-opener and he ran well for a long way having towed the field along throughout in a Pertemps Qualifier at Aintree next time out, just weakening into third on the run-in. Similar tactics were employed in the Grade 3 “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle at Haydock last time and he always looked in control dictating things from the front, staying on well in testing conditions to deny Theo’s Charm by two and a half lengths. It’s fair to say that he took advantage of his much lower hurdles mark but that form still looks pretty smart on paper and has been franked with the third-placed Yala Enki subsequently landing the competitive Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase. With the Grand National no longer on his agenda, we don’t have to worry about connections protecting his mark for the Aintree showcase and given he has shown a liking for this course in the past, a bold bid is expected.
The biggest challenger could well come in the shape of recent Doncaster scorer No Duffer who seems to be in the form of his life at the tender age of 10. Tom George’s stayer rounded off last campaign with a pair of wins in fair handicaps at Haydock and Perth and regained the winning thread, having blown the cobwebs away with a spin in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham in October, with victory at Doncaster last month. He showed a good attitude that day and while he only eventually prevailed by a nose, the way he was keeping on at the finish was pleasing. He will have much softer conditions to deal with here but that shouldn’t be much of a problem and he will have to produce a big effort if he is to live up to his trainer’s dream of having a crack at the Grand National.
Volnay de Thaix rates an interesting contender although he does look to have a fair ask conceding weight all round. The eight-year-old hasn’t really lived up to his billing as a chaser so far, falling well below his exploits over hurdles, but did show glimpses of what he could be capable of when second to Junction Fourteen on bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown at the back end of last season. However, he was hit with a 5lb rise for that performance and his jumping left a lot to be desired on his only run so far this season, even if he was probably out of his depth behind stablemate Josses Hill in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase. He also needs to prove his effectiveness over this sort of trip as although he has shaped as though three miles would suit in the past, his only previous attempt came when fourth in the “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle back in 2014.
With the Colin Tizzard string clearly firing on all cylinders, Sandy Beach has to be respected and his latest win at Newbury in November was a particularly impressive performance. He has been hit with an 11lb rise for that which is possibly a tad harsh but is still relatively unexposed as a chaser and certainly has the scope for further progression. The main concern with him is his jumping as he has unseated on two of his last five starts and now stepping up in trip, his clumsiness over the obstacles could raise its ugly head once more.
Fellow last-time-out scorer Chill Factor returns from over seven months off the track here and despite showing some fair form already in just four starts over fences, he would need a pretty big step up on what he has shown to date to get involved in a heat such as this.
One of the most intriguing contenders to line-up is Our Kaempfer on only his fifth start over fences. The previously fairly useful hurdler shaped nicely in a pair of novices at the beginning of this campaign before finding a Grade 2 at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting out of his depth. His opening mark of 138 looks pretty fair although we didn’t really get to see what he can achieve when unseating early on in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day. If capturing the same level of form he showed over hurdles now tackling larger obstacles, he can prove very competitive in a race of this nature and has the eye-catching booking of Sam Twiston-Davies aboard to boot.
Of the remainder, Abricot de L’Oasis lurks on a handy weight of 10st 3lb but hasn’t shown a liking for this sort of trip in the past and must rate a risky proposition while Carloswayback is probably handicapped to the hilt off 125 at this stage of his career. The one that could be a fly in the ointment though is Silvergrove who could really make his presence felt if recapturing the sort of form that saw him finish third in the Kim Muir at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He was in the midst of a really good spell at the time and has been fairly out of sorts so far this season so will need a bounce-back, but that could be entirely possible given his liking for the track.
Advice
KRUZHLININ – 2pts win @ 5/1 (bet365, Betway)
3.35 Warwick – Betfred Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Make no mistake, three miles and five furlongs in soft/heavy ground is going to turn this race into a brutal slog. Last year’s contest had only a few finishers and it wouldn’t be a surprise if we saw something similar here, with even some experienced stayers looking as if this might be too much of a test.
Houblon Des Obeaux sets a good standard for the rest to aim at – his third in the Welsh Grand National two weeks ago was a gutsy effort in the soft ground that he loves, but that was not so long ago and he has to once again carry top weight here. I also have a doubt whether he really sees out an extreme trip under so much weight and his run in this last year – 34 lengths 4th – does suggest that his 6lb higher mark this time around could make it even harder for the ten-year-old to do so.
There have also only been two winners since 2007 to have won at a double-figure age, so the likes of Shotgun Paddy and Milansbar may find this a bit too much, even if the ground will suit both of those mentioned contenders. Only Shotgun Paddy has won this in the last ten years and been under the age of eight, so it does suggest that a horse in its prime is needed – despite being well-supported Ballycross may not have the experience required to land a blow for Nigel Twiston-Davies at just six years old.
Doctor Harper ran a cracker at Cheltenham on his second run of the year, just being touched off by the well-handicapped Tour Des Champs over three miles and two furlongs. He’s a horse that never seems to have found his trip, winning over two miles as short a time ago as last January, yet running so well over a staying trip last time out. It does seem as if David Pipe has always wanted to turn this horse into a stayer and his last run shows that he has the aptitude for it, but I wonder if these extra few furlongs and the very soft ground might be too much for him, even though a mark of 143 could be within his compass.
Alan King’s Sego Success won the Listed Hampton Novices’ Chase here in 2015 and clearly likes soft ground and at least three miles. He fell at the second when joint-favourite in last year’s renewal of this race off a mark of 146, so it does seem a little generous that he’s trading at around 14/1 here when he’s only got a mark of 140 to defy. He’s run well in his two runs so far this season, staying on over three miles on goodish ground each time, so the return to further and the softer surface should suit, while the first-time addition of blinkers could help this notoriously lazy type to sharpen up. He’s an each-way player for an in-form stable.
Something of a talking horse for the Welsh National, before failing to sneak in at the bottom of the weights, Viva Steve looks one whose best is yet to come over fences, especially given the style of his win at Ayr last time out. However, it wasn’t the strongest race – two and a half lengths 2nd was the 127-rated Ballyben (very well beaten at Catterick this week) and even though a mark of 139 might be workable, I’m not sure he’ll want the ground as soft as it will be here.
One who must be well-in is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Spookydooky, who was last seen finishing a well-beaten eighth at Chepstow last time out off a mark of 134. He runs off 131 here, which is a whole 10lb lower than his fourth placed effort in the Midlands Grand National in March last year. He clearly likes soft ground, stays well and enjoys big fields, so if he bounces back to form here, he could be thrown in – something we can’t rule out given his stable – so a price of 20/1 might be appealing.
A horse that I quite rate is Kim Bailey’s Knockanrawley, who ran brilliantly on his last run at Cheltenham behind Sausalito Sunrise and Upswing. However, even though this horse is a dour stayer who will enjoy the soft ground and the extreme trip, a break of 427 days off the track is not ideal going into a race of this nature or magnitude. He ran well at Cheltenham off a nine-month break, so he can certainly go well fresh, but it does seem a mountain to climb to come out on top in a race like this, even if a mark of 136 is clearly well within his abilities.
ONE FOR ARTHUR is a horse that has fitness, good recent form and a liking for a soft surface on his side, as well as plenty of experience in big fields. A good fifth, off the same mark of 137 that he races from today, in the Becher Chase at the start of December behind all the right rivals (Vieux Lion Rouge, Highland Lodge, The Last Samuri, Ucello Conti) looks to be some very good form and it also suggested that this step up in trip on softer ground could help him continue the upward curve he seems to be on this season. He was only beaten three lengths in the end after being held up in the rear of the contest and allowed to slowly creep into things under Derek Fox, who rides again today, and a more prominent ride here could pay dividends. He’s won in soft and heavy ground before and looks to need a bit of cut in the surface at least, while his excellent jumping and sound stamina also stand him in good stead here. The eight-year-old fits the right profile of a horse entering his prime, on an upward curve and looks as if he’s got a big prize in him this season – this could be it.
Advice
ONE FOR ARTHUR – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Boylesports, BetVictor)
3.55 Wetherby – Racing UK Fillies’ “Junior” Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.
The finale at Wetherby on Saturday looks an interesting despite there not being much form to go on.
The standout in terms of form is undoubtedly Shearling who already has two wins to her name including over course and distance last time. Brian Ellison’s filly seemed to be struggling to get on terms on that occasion before staying on strongly in the closing stages to win going away. I am slightly surprised that connections haven’t waited to go back up in trip with her but she may just be ridden a bit more forward on this occasion. She has to carry a double penalty and whilst Kaine Wood takes a useful 7lb off her back, he has partnered her on her first two starts so the benefit is slightly lessened. She is likely to be popular in the market and whilst she sets a good standard, I think she is worth taking on.
Another with experience under her belt is Harry Fry’s Cockney Wren who finished a close second at Taunton on her debut. Having travelled strongly, she was just outstayed in the closing stages by her older rival so the drop back in trip should be in her favour. The yard tend to do well with their bumper horses and they show a handsome profit on horses in this sphere in recent seasons, but this filly has shown signs of temperament in the past and whilst she is respected, she is passed over.
There are a host of newcomers of some interest including Avealittlepatience who represents the Fergal O’Brien stable. That yard is another who tends to do well in this sphere and this filly is a half-sister to four winners. Brian Hughes has been booked to ride and it would be no surprise to see her run well.
The same can be said for Karl Burke’s Trap Queen who is flat-bred but she comes from a staying family so should have no trouble over this sort of trip. She was bought back when she went through the ring in December and could be one to keep an eye on with the future in mind.
Trainer Amy Murphy has made a fast start to her training career and she saddles Mercian Princess here. The filly races in the colours of Amy’s father Paul and is a half-sister to Mercian Prince who won at Sandown last Saturday. He is a strong stayer and whilst it is hard to know for sure, I suspect that she might find this trip a little sharp on her first start.
However, the one of most interest is PERFECT MOMENT who represents the small but shrewd operation of Don Cantillon. This filly is a half-sister to the smart NH mare As I Am who was fourth in the mares’ bumper at Aintree in her younger days. The yard have a pretty good record in bumpers and I also think it is significant that Graham Lee has been booked to ride this filly. I suspect the ones with experience don’t set too high a standard and of the newcomers, she is the one of most interest.
Advice
PERFECT MOMENT – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)
4.05 Warwick – The Betfred TV ‘Newcomers’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.
This could well turn out to be a pretty informative bumper with some stout-looking pedigrees on show. Point of Principle boasts arguably the most impressive of those in the line-up and looks more suited to bumpers than his National Hunt-bred rivals. The son of Rip Van Winkle was acquired by Tim Vaughan for only £8,500 at the Goffs UK Spring Sale last May having started his career as a Coolmore-owned inmate of Sir Michael Stoute. He clearly didn’t live up to his connections’ lofty expectations on the level but he is still bred to be smart being out of Irish Oaks winner L’Ancresse, herself a half-sister to a Group 1 winners Moonstone (dam of US Army Ranger) and Cerluean Sky (dam of Honolulu), and is a half-brother to dual Listed winner Chamonix. You would have to question why he was let go so cheaply early in his three-year-old season but even so, he is certainly worth a second look.
However, KAVEMAN could be the way to go given the bumper success enjoyed by his siblings. The five-year-old is the eighth foal out of hurdles winner Megalex, a dam who has had a penchant for producing bumper winners, by Kayf Tara and his three full-brothers and two half-sisters have all scored in bumpers. These include Megastar, who landed the Grade 2 Champion Bumper at the Aintree Festival back in 2010, and last year’s Cheltenham Champion Bumper hero Ballyandy.
Of the remainder, Dollnamix makes plenty of appeal for the in-form Harry Fry/Noel Fehily duo while The Floating Bear has to be taken seriously emanating from Fergal O’Brien’s stable who boast an impressive 29% strike-rate in bumpers this season. Warren Greatrex is another handler making hay in bumpers this season and has employed the services of his son Thomas to take 7lb off the back of Well Smitten. Daryl Jacob has been the jockey to follow in the last week with four winners from just seven rides and his mount Paisley Park boasts solid claims being related to numerous winners in the National Hunt sphere.
One that could prove to be a live outsider is Project Mars. Nick Gifford’s charge is out of a well-related hurdles winner (sister to Massini’s Maguire) and the yard have had a hot hand in bumpers this term with a 33% strike-rate.
Advice
KAVEMAN – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds
Difference between time and standard
Difference converted to lbs
Rating after above
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment
asificare got a reaction from avongirl in Punters Lounge Exclusive £150 added Poker League PokerStars - Wed 31st October - Fun Week
asificare reacted to ian309 in Punters Lounge Exclusive £150 added Poker League PokerStars - Wed 31st October - Fun Week
asificare got a reaction from runadrum in Division 5 - Week 7 Selections
asificare got a reaction from BillyHills in Division 6 - Week 7 Selections
asificare got a reaction from JJG in Division 6 - Week 7 Selections