The Equaliser

525 asc 
Existent 8.7  10/1 
Significantly   8.5 6/1 
Arecibo  8.0  25/1 
Top 2 are a bit in front so I'll try 5pt ew  both ....arecibo is lively outsider if he runs to his best but he's in and out 

2 year old Ascot double.
Symbology 1:50
Sunway 4:15
Both looked very good on debuts. Double around 30/1 on Betfair.
 
That went well. Sybology ran ok but the winner bolted up. Sunway ran no race at all.

Kodiac Thriller 1315 Ascot.......got left many lengths first time up at Windsor , still 2nd last  just over a furlong and a half out and still nearly mowed them down    
Alflaila  1515 York   just a massive price for a horse with it`s turn of foot   , My Prospero been disappointing this season , let`s hope it continues .

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY) REUSE SELECTION       4(4)   Magical Spirit10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 14:40 York 14:40, 29 Jul     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH & INSIGHTS       10(14)   Intrinsic Bond20/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 17:25 Ascot 17:25, 29 Jul     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH       16(8)   Soul Seeker18/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:05 York 14:05, 29 Jul     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH & INSIGHTS       21(19)   Fools Rush In66/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5,6 15:00 Ascot 15:00, 29 Jul     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 6 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH 0.1pt e/w l15 =3pts invested

A good result for the stats last time with winners at 33/1 and 9/1 from 6 selections.
This Saturday’s big heritage handicap is the Moet & Chandon International Stakes at Ascot. The race is open to horses aged three years or older. It is run over 7 furlongs and the off time is 15.00.
27 go to post and with many bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Those horses drawn in stalls 11 to 15 have produced 5 wins from 38 runs with a profit of 196 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder produced 4 wins from 171 runs with a loss of 141 points.
The first four in the forecast betting have provided 5 winners 39 runners. The remaining 170 runners have produced just 3 winners.
The ideal rest period from the last run is 15 to 38 days. These horses have recorded 7 wins from 83 runs with a profit of 143 points.
The best weight range is 9st to 9st 7lbs with 6 wins from 67 runs.
 
Only 1 horse matches these criteria.
VAFORTINO 10/1
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

Speed Figures for the King George
pyledriver                 136
augustus rodan        135*
emily upjohn             132
king of steel               131*
luxembourg              128
Probably one of the best races of the year so far,
* I have a niggling doubt about this years derby it my be an outlier with regards the figures, i say this having watched the race several times and the way the race was run on good to firm ground was always going to produce a fast time. so for me the three i am interested in are Pyledriver, Luxembourg and emily upjohn, at the prices it will be Pyledriver and Luxembourg. Pyledriver being the only horse in the field that has run 130+ on more than 1 occasion (4). Sometimes you just have to go with what you know and not what "they" say and we know all about Pyledriver.
 

Ascot and York are the day’s feature meetings with the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes run at 15.40 the day’s feature race, and what a cracker we have this year. A real race to savour. The ground is soft at both tracks so we’ll be looking for horses that love to get their hooves into the turf. Here’s my thoughts on the day’s seven races with selections to help beat the bookies.     Ascot 13:50 We start the days terrestrial coverage off with an eleven runner 6F Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for two year old fillies only. There’s very little soft ground form here with the Amo Racing owned Komat the only horse to comprehensively prove his effectiveness on soft ground having won at Redcar in April on soft. I’m not quite sure she’ll be good enough to win this mind. George Boughey’s Soprano is the current favourite but he ran to at Sandown on Thursday so has to be deemed doubtful one would think. Clive Cox saddles an interesting runner here in the once raced Symbology who beat the more experienced Nighteyes 3/4L at York on her debut a fortnight ago on good ground looking a nice prospect in the process and can run well along with Charlie Johnston’s Sacred Angel who impressed when winning at Newmarket a fortnight ago on fast ground. The Godolphin runner Dazzling Star doesn’t look anything too special having won a modest (by Newmarket standards) 6F maiden a month ago which hasn’t worked out that well. There’s no stand out filly here especially with question marks over the ground for most but I’ll take a chance on the Cox runner Symbology each way to small stakes who, although winning on good ground, may appreciate some cut in the ground like his sire and dam who both won on soft ground.   SYMBOLOGY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   York 14:05 York’s ITV coverage kicks off with a nineteen runner class 4 5F ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap, a unique race where national hunt jockeys get the chance to ride the sprint track on the Knavesmire. It has a very open look about it with local sprint specialist Paul Midgley saddling six runners, the best of whom may well be the Sam Twiston Davies ridden Glory Fighter. 2021 winner Soul Seeker, trained by David O’Meara has plummeted in the handicap since and races here off of a handicap mark some 17lb lower than that victory. He has little form on a soft surface however so is overlooked for that reason alone. In a race where stakes are most definitely kept small the pick may well be the David O’Meara trained Speedacus who is ridden by the current leader of the national hunt jockeys championship Sean Bowen, who actually won on the flat at Pontefract for his father Peter last week with Supposedtobe. Relatively lightly raced for his age, this Slade Power chestnut gelding proved his liking for soft ground when winning at Doncaster a week ago for which he’s been raised 4lb for. In an open contest he’s worth a small each way bet.   SPEEDACUS 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Ascot 14:25 Ten fillies or mares line up for this 1M Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes. The Irish challenger Cadeau Belle, trained by Johnny Murtagh, is unbeaten in two starts having won a Gowran Park maiden on soft ground and a listed race at Navan. This is a further step up in class but shes done nothing wrong and could play a hand in the finish with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Also over from the Emerald Isle is the Joseph O’Brien trained Thornbrook, a listed winner in France last time out who is could also be in the mix here. Roger Varian saddles an interesting runner in the four year old Ameynah who we haven’t seen since finishing 6th in last season’s 1000 Guineas and is also untested on easy ground so is overlooked for those reasons alone. Six of the 10 runners are three year olds including Cadeau Belle with the Andrew Balding trained Vetiver stepping up in grade but only 10lb behind the top rated and has won three times on soft ground so has her under foot conditions here. The one I feel they all have to beat though is the Ed Walker trained, Saffie Osborne ridden Random Harvest. The five year old mare has won twice on soft ground and was probably out of her depth last time out when 6th of 8 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. She had previously gone down by short margins in group 3 and 2 company at Epsom and Ascot and as the highest rated of the ten looks the bet here.   RANDOM HARVEST 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   York 14:40 A competitive fifteen runner 6F class 2 handicap is up next and has a typical York sprint look about it. Karl Burke’s Lethal Levi heads the weights here and ran well on the all-weather at Newcastle last time when 3rd to Batal Dubai. He has claims along with a whole host of others including the only three year old in the field in the shape of Richard Fahey’s Barefoot Angel who makes her first start in a handicap having had her wind operated on since last seen when down the field in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn at Newmarket in April. This represents a drop in grade for the Dark Angel filly and she can run well. Kevin Ryan’s Hambleton Racing owned seven year old Magical Spirit is an interesting runner who won in the mud at Doncaster in April prior to an excellent third of 21 over course and distance 18 days later to Bielsa. His latest run on the all-weather can be forgiven and with conditions to suit looks the pick here to small stakes and an additional place.   MAGICAL SPIRIT 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 15:00 A wide open renewal with 27 spread across the 7F straight track. Biggles comes here in fine form, likes soft ground and has to make the short list with Ryan Moore on board. Last year’s winner Fresh is another who can be competitive as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing whilst that wont worry Baradar who can’t have it soft enough. One of only two three year olds in the race, the Richard Fahey trained Ramazan can also be competitive from what may turn out to be a favourable high draw. At a monster price don’t be surprised if Fools Rush In outruns his odds and could hit the frame at a very big price. A wide open race with Biggles the most likely winner with just a 3lb penalty for his cosy Bunbury Cup victory and with Ryan Moore on top. The only negative is his stall 6 which in the past has been a negative so for that reason the vote goes to the mud lark Baradar berthed in stall 24 and the three year old Ramazan in stall 21.   BARADAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 RAMAZAN 1 point each way @ 14/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345 FOOLS RUSH IN 1/2 point each way 66/1 Coral 1/5th 12345     York 15:15 Just the five go to post for this 1M 2F 56 yards Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. The warm favourite and easily the most likely winner is the William Haggas trained My Prospero who is taking a drop in grade here having run in Group 1 company on his last three starts. His best effort to date was at last season’s Champions Day in the Qipco Champions Stakes when finishing third (beaten 1/2L) by Bay Bridge and Adayar with the great Baaeed behind in fourth. He found the mile of the Lockinge at Newbury on his re-appearance too short for him in May and was not disgraced when fourth of 6 in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal meeting at Ascot in June (beaten 6 1/2L). A reproduction of any of those three runs should see him take this contest on ground that he’s proven on. Roger Varian’s Royal Champion took the Wolverton at Royal Ascot but this is a step up in class for him whilst Owen Burrow’s Alflaila has a 294 day layoff to overcome as well as question marks over his ability to handle soft ground. Johnny Murtagh sends over Mashoor from his County Kildare base in Ireland and is chasing a four timer with his best effort coming at Curragh last time out in the Group 3 International Stakes when running out an impressive 4 3/4L winner from Al Riffa. He looks the danger to the favourite if coping with the soft ground on the Knavesmire.   MY PROSPERO 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill   Ascot 15:40 The feature race of the day is the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, a Group One race run over 1M 4F and has attracted an excellent field of eleven this year and looks like being one of the best renewals for many a year. The two three year olds taking on the nine elders are Aiden O’Brien’s Epsom and Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the Roger Varian trained Derby runner up and Royal Ascot winner King Of Steel. There was only 1 1/2L between them at Epsom and as that was the latter’s first run of the season I would expect there to be little between them here despite Auguste Rodin’s trainer expressing concerns about very soft ground lets not forget he ran out a comfortable winner of the Vertem Futurity on heavy ground as a juvenile. The soft ground has come in favour of the Owen Burrows runner Hukum whose form figures on ground with the description soft in reads 1131. Last seen beating Desert Crown at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes in May he looks a major player now stepping back up in trip. Last year’s winner Pyledriver is back to defend his title having prepped with a victory in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot but this year’s renewal looks a lot classier than last years. The Gosden’s Emily Upjohn was a major disappointment in this race last year when pulling too hard but has bounced back to form this season with two solid efforts although soft ground may be her downfall. An interesting outsider is one of the Aiden O’Brien quartet in Point Lonsdale who’s unbeaten in five starts on soft ground and could hit the frame at a monster price. A race to savour but with plenty in his favour its Hukum for me.   HUKUM 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill POINT LONSDALE 1/4 point each way @ 80/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

3.00 ascot 
Vafortino  9.0 11/1     4.16
Biggles   8.9  6/1        7.14
Northern express  8.6 13.5     3.70 
Bless him  8.2 
Safe voyage   8.2 
Very very competitive race ....safe voyage and bless him are lively outsiders at big prices but stakes at the end I'll try top 3 ...15pts outlay ...35pts profit any winner 🏆 

1pt e/w  3.00 Ascot-FOOLS RUSH IN 66/1 Corals bog 6places 1/5odds

RESULTS UPDATE
No luck with any of my bets but I made 20.58 with @richard-westwood's selections, so 15.58 on the day.  My RW growth fund is now 239.53 which means that at 5% of the pool, I can bet 12 points on his next event(s).  Many thanks to him for propping me up.
My L15 is MTD -14.26 YTD  +93.24
My RC MTD is +27.22 and YTD is +45.76 🙂

Chepstow 8:55
Upstart crow
win
lujain
win
Both of these Arab horses in good fettle upstart crow on a four timer.
*****************************
multiple winners including 
Blazeon five @ 16/1 
American in Paris  @ 14/1
liverpool knight @ 6/4 !
Terwada
Asean
Quiz test @ 14/1
and finally 
upstart crow
has just won the last at Chepstow @ 5/2 

4.10 asc Flash Bardot 4/1 (TM)
4.45 Asc Cuban Breeze 11/4 (TM)
5.30 Yk Follow Your Heart 22/1 (OM)
7.15 Yk Long Ago 15/2 (OM)
1 x  0.10 L15 = 649.70 and 1 x 0.25 ew acca = poss 926.65 = 1576.35 fo a 2 pts stake

York 5:30
NO NAY NIKKI
 
RIOT
both win
both highest weighted & lowest/highest drawn.
a speculative pair of selections rather than one of any logic. So small stakes in such a huge field.
Cork 5:22
Asean 
win
gets 7lb here and has been in touch behind the unbeaten kiruyi and pearls and rubies to name two. not the strongest here but the weight and low draw may help donnachha O’Brien’s runner.

This really is jinxed. I've seen a few on here say that when they post they never win, but i will put another up, even though i forgot yesterday trying to prove a few of you guys/gals wrong by putting all my efforts into the Racing League meeting at Yarmouth and i did really well. (4 winners, two placed) And no, not all winners in my Lucky-15, but i did have 3 and no i didn't cash out, bet365 didn't offer me a cash out after first two won and was late offering me a c/o after the third won, but i let it ride and it lost, but still a nice return. Anyway, here are my losers today and it's ew. 
1615 C - Answer Me Nay 
1832 C - Soi Dao 
1915 Y - Queen Of The Skies 
2020 Y - Premiere Option 
 

Newmarket
6:27 She is a Keeper EW
7:02 Eton College EW
7:35 Highland Song Ew
8:45 King of the dance 4/1 EW
Down Royal
8:30 St FAZ 7/1 EW
8.00 Galactica E/W
Chepstow
6:15 Doonbeg Farmer EW
7:55 Savalas 3/1 EW
Cork
6:32 Aryton EW
7:07 Quiz Test EW
7:40 Gobi Star 14/1 EW
York
7:15 Golden Lyra EW

Day 9 -£10.04

Newmarket
5:52 Grey Cuban 8/1
6:27 Kitty Bennet 9/1
8:45 Porfin 5/1
Ascot
3:00 - Dashing Dick 16/1
Lucky 15

Well done +20.58 my end.  Back in the groove 🙂

1st and 2nd ...Nice runs +31.50

Blazeon five returns ( for me) @ a jaw dropping 16/1 won on the nose and Alexander is up and running. Sp 17/2.
I keep an eye on Hugh Taylor’s picks and I didn’t think his three year old selection or Nicky Henderson’s runner had a chance. Good old course and distance wins the day.

4.55 San Prosecco 9/2
5.20 Don Le Reveur 6/1
7.15 Nb Zoukster 3/1
8.15 Nb Ranger Thunderbolt 10/3
1 x 0.10 L15 = 138.56 +1 x 0.50 w Acca = 333.56 = 472.22 = 2 pts staked

mystic man 3.20 

Liverpool knight did it well.
ascot 1:50
small stakes win on
Rawaasi
one of few with experience here and the others are well bred but may need the run.
Ascot 2:25
wide open in which three year olds have a great record in receipt of a stone here. 
but at the prices 
Appier
each way
Blazeon five
win
Thirsk 2pm
STALLONE
EACH WAY
Maybe able to benefit from free energy from memho  who has a penalty and carries a seven pound claimer in stall 2 every chance here.