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The Equaliser

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Posts posted by The Equaliser

  1. My Trixie today is:

    2.55 Bath Confils 4/1

    4.00 Bath Mostallim 15/8

    5.35 Bath Lady ELysia 9/2

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £136.74

    Singles bets

    1.20 Ros Trebizand £2 win at 5.52 = £8.86 profit if it wins

    3.30 Bath Snow Berry (OM) £2 win at 5.5 = £8.82 profit if it wins

    4.00 Bath Renbawi (JF/MJ) £1 win at 8/1

    4.30 Bath Heart And Dust (LM/SMP) £2 win at 8.0 = £13.72 p if wins

    5.00 Bath Swiss Pride (GR3/RT) £1 win at 10/1

    Total stakes = £12.00

  2. BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

    B/FWD SEP -14.26 POINTS

    These are not tips just a trial of the online media giant's selections

    2.05 NAb Fifrelet 8/15 (8/13 LN)                                          Alt No Bet (1/2 in places)

    3.42 NAb Hooper 11/10 steady DTR                                    Alt (1) 13/2

    4.12 NAb Mick Pastor Ev  (4/5 LN)                                      Alt (2) 9/4 (was 3/1 LN)

    1.20 Ross Trebizand  4/1 DTR (was 10/3 LN)                        Alt (4) 5/2 Fav steady

    2.25 Bath Firth Of Clyde 10/11 DTR (was Evens LN)            Alt (1) 4/1 (was 3/1 LN)

    There was one non-runner so now only 5 out of 38 selections = 13.2%

  3. 7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Tom Marquand got boxed in and his fiance won the 2.40 🤢

    Have had £2 win at 3.85 on Spirit Level in the 4.50 at Ffos Las = £5.59 profit if it wins

     

    RESULTS UPDATE

    Didn't even come close to having a winner.  Loss today of £10.20. This makes my new balance £705.94 (Bank £1056.22)

     

  4. 12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

    B/FWD SEP -12.40

    Theses are not tips, just a trial of the Big 3 online media giants

    2.30 Curr Sunset Shiraz 10/3 (NB Gavin Cromwell 0/29 winners last 14 days) DTR                            Alt (1) 9/2

    3.00 Curr Ruling 4/7  DTR                                                                                                                Alt No Bet

    3.35 Curr The Mediterranean 11/10                                                                                                 Alt (2) 7/1

    2.20 Eps Goldspur 5/6 DTR                                                                                                              Alt (4) 11/2 (6/1 LN)

    4.25 Eps Danville 4/7 (4/9 LN)                                                                                                          Alt No Bet

    3.45 Ffos Nadein 5/6                                                                                                                        Alt (5) 7/2 (4/1 LN)

    6 selections out of 23 races = 26%

    These prices are too short to form the basis of a Trixie for me today

    RESULTS UPDATE

    The Big 3 got 2 winners today out of 5 selections ( non runner) Both 4/7 at the times of posting so a net loss on the day of 1.86 points.  Both DTR's The c/Fwd is now -14.26

    My alternative bets produced 1 winner at 7/2 so a small loss of 0.5 points. The C/Fwd is -81.20 points

    5 Meetings and 38 races to look at tomorrow

     

  5. 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    My Trixie today is:

    2.40 Ffos Ladypacksapunch (TM/RH) 3/1

    2.50 Eps Greatgadian (AA/AB) 3/1

    4.50 Ffos Spirit Level (OM/AB) 11/4

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £106.00

    Singles:

    3.10 Ffos Blackcastle Storm (TH5/RH) £1 win at 13/2

    3.25 Eps Sarvan (SC?Alwnce/GS) £1 win at 6/1

    3.35 Curr Lismore (WL/ HdB) 80p win at 10/1 & Barrington Court (SF/Mrs J H) 20p win at 6/1

    5.00 Eps Alezan GD3/EJH) £1 win at 5/1 & Sadiqua (JF/CC)  20p win at 5/1

    = £8.20 total spend

     

    Tom Marquand got boxed in and his fiance won the 2.40 🤢

    Have had £2 win at 3.85 on Spirit Level in the 4.50 at Ffos Las = £5.59 profit if it wins

     

  6. My Trixie today is:

    2.40 Ffos Ladypacksapunch (TM/RH) 3/1

    2.50 Eps Greatgadian (AA/AB) 3/1

    4.50 Ffos Spirit Level (OM/AB) 11/4

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £106.00

    Singles:

    3.10 Ffos Blackcastle Storm (TH5/RH) £1 win at 13/2

    3.25 Eps Sarvan (SC?Alwnce/GS) £1 win at 6/1

    3.35 Curr Lismore (WL/ HdB) 80p win at 10/1 & Barrington Court (SF/Mrs J H) 20p win at 6/1

    5.00 Eps Alezan GD3/EJH) £1 win at 5/1 & Sadiqua (JF/CC)  20p win at 5/1

    = £8.20 total spend

     

  7. BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

    B/FWD SEP -12.40

    Theses are not tips, just a trial of the Big 3 online media giants

    2.30 Curr Sunset Shiraz 10/3 (NB Gavin Cromwell 0/29 winners last 14 days) DTR                            Alt (1) 9/2

    3.00 Curr Ruling 4/7  DTR                                                                                                                Alt No Bet

    3.35 Curr The Mediterranean 11/10                                                                                                 Alt (2) 7/1

    2.20 Eps Goldspur 5/6 DTR                                                                                                              Alt (4) 11/2 (6/1 LN)

    4.25 Eps Danville 4/7 (4/9 LN)                                                                                                          Alt No Bet

    3.45 Ffos Nadein 5/6                                                                                                                        Alt (5) 7/2 (4/1 LN)

    6 selections out of 23 races = 26%

    These prices are too short to form the basis of a Trixie for me today

  8. 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    RESULTS UPDATE

    The Big 3 had 3 winners today out of 10 selections as She's In The Game wasn't.  Four out of the 5 DTR's lost.  Two odds on shots lost whilst one won so a profitable day for the layers.  The upshot was -2.84 Points.  The carry Fwd is now -12.40 points

    The alternative bets only produced one winner at 9/2 so a 5.5 points loss which brings the cumulative to -80.7 points

    Only 23 races tomorrow so that shouldn't take too long to check out 🙂

    With so many short priced favourites running tomorrow I wonder how the bookies will get any sleep tonight 😂

    I will only have 6 selections out of 23 races = 26%, but will post up tomorrow so as to include overnight price changes.

    I won't lose any sleep and the bookies won't either because they have already factored in their profit 🤓

  9. 9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Today's Trixie:

    1.00 Hd Smiling Jayne 7/4

    2.25 Nm Sacred Bridge 2/1

    3.50 Hd Summers Knight 15/8 (£2.15 win at 2.9 = £4.00 p if it wins)

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £48.50

    Other single = £1 win on Chichester in the 3.40 at Nm at 15/2 with Hollie Doyle aboard

    = £7.15 staked o far

     

    RESULTS UPDATE

    For the second week running I have included the Timeform star rated selection for the day, in this case Sacred Bridge and for the second week running it has lost :wall  Luckily Summers Knight sprang back to form impressively so I only lost £0.99 on the day.  My new balance is now £716.14 (Bank £1.056.22)

  10. 11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

    B/FWD SEP -9.56 POINTS

    Theses are not tips

    1.00 Hd Smiling Jayne 2/1 (15/8 LN)  DTR                          Alt (3/1) steady

    1.30 Hd Educator 5/4 steady                                             Alt (1) 12/1 (8/1 LN)

    3.50 Hd Summers Knight 2/1 (5/2 LN)                               Alt (1) 3/1 (7/2 LN)

    1.15 Nm Oheka 4/5 (evens LN)                                         Alt (5) 9/2 (6/1 LN)

    2.25 Nm Sacred Bridge 2/1 steady  DTR                            Alt (13) 11/2 steady

    1.10 List Chiricahua 5/4 steady                                         Alt (14) 9/2 (7/2 LN)

    4.45 Curr She's In The Game 9/2 steady  DTR                   Alt (13) 12/1 steady

    3.45 Ches Baryshinikov 3/1 steady                                   Alt (2) 15/2 steady

    2.45 M/R Caramelised 8/11 (Evens LN) DTR                     Alt (5) 13/2 (5/1 LN)

    5.35 M/R Ultimate Fame 1/1 (5/4 LN) DTR                       Alt (7) 11/2 (5/1 LN)

    7.00 Chelm Roulston Scar 10/11 (8/13 LN) DTR               Alt (1) 6/4 (13/8 LN)

    11 Selections from 60 races = 18.3% (quite poor for a Saturday)

    Will be back later with book bets; need to do a bit more research

    RESULTS UPDATE

    The Big 3 had 3 winners today out of 10 selections as She's In The Game wasn't.  Four out of the 5 DTR's lost.  Two odds on shots lost whilst one won so a profitable day for the layers.  The upshot was -2.84 Points.  The carry Fwd is now -12.40 points

    The alternative bets only produced one winner at 9/2 so a 5.5 points loss which brings the cumulative to -80.7 points

    Only 23 races tomorrow so that shouldn't take too long to check out 🙂

  11. 5 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

    Loss of 3 points on the day. Our big ante post gamble Chichester was slowly away and never got into it - that's racing as they say!

    I saw a similar thing with Jawaal in the 2.40 Haydock.  It didn't "stumble" as reported in the RP but nodded as it came out of the stalls; then Paul Mulrennan, who I don't like as a jockey anyway did all kinds of wierd hopeless things during the race.  I wonder how many races are lost at the start; especially sprint races?

     

  12. BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

    B/FWD SEP -9.56 POINTS

    Theses are not tips

    1.00 Hd Smiling Jayne 2/1 (15/8 LN)  DTR                          Alt (3/1) steady

    1.30 Hd Educator 5/4 steady                                             Alt (1) 12/1 (8/1 LN)

    3.50 Hd Summers Knight 2/1 (5/2 LN)                               Alt (1) 3/1 (7/2 LN)

    1.15 Nm Oheka 4/5 (evens LN)                                         Alt (5) 9/2 (6/1 LN)

    2.25 Nm Sacred Bridge 2/1 steady  DTR                            Alt (13) 11/2 steady

    1.10 List Chiricahua 5/4 steady                                         Alt (14) 9/2 (7/2 LN)

    4.45 Curr She's In The Game 9/2 steady  DTR                   Alt (13) 12/1 steady

    3.45 Ches Baryshinikov 3/1 steady                                   Alt (2) 15/2 steady

    2.45 M/R Caramelised 8/11 (Evens LN) DTR                     Alt (5) 13/2 (5/1 LN)

    5.35 M/R Ultimate Fame 1/1 (5/4 LN) DTR                       Alt (7) 11/2 (5/1 LN)

    7.00 Chelm Roulston Scar 10/11 (8/13 LN) DTR               Alt (1) 6/4 (13/8 LN)

    11 Selections from 60 races = 18.3% (quite poor for a Saturday)

    Will be back later with book bets; need to do a bit more research

  13. 10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

    These are not tips

    B/Fwd Sep -6.56

    1.00 Hd Locherbie 8/13                                                  Alt (4) 3/1

    3.10 Hd Dream Weaver 2/1                                            Alt (1) 9/2

    1.15 Nm Al Jaddaf 4/9 DTR                                            Alt No Bet

    3.35 Nm Master Of The Seas  5/4                                  Alt (2) 9/4

    2.45 List Game Catch 7/2                                              Alt (13) 6/1

    3.20 List Lord Gillgooley 5/2                                         Alt (3) 6/1

    3.55 List Buttons And Bows 2/1 DTR                            Alt (7) 7/1

    3.50 YK A Boy Named Ivy 11/4                                    Alt (7) 6/1

    2.52 Worc Thistle Do Nicely 5/4  DTR                           Alt (2) 7/2

    4.35 Worc Golf Clair 15/8                                            Alt (8) 5/2

    5.07 Worc London Eye 2/1                                         Alt (9) 6/1

    8.00 Nc Musashaba 7/2                                             Alt (2) 10/3

    12 Selections from 51 races = 23.5%

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Book Bets

    2.25 Nm Forbearance 5/1

    2.52 Worc Thistle Do Nicely 6/5

    8.00 Nc Musashaba 7/2

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £109.50.

    Had £1 win at 9/2 on Jessica Harrington's Forbearance in the 2.25 at Nm

      = £5 staked so far

    RESULTS UPDATE

    The big 3 got 2 winners today out of 12 and luckily they were at a price of 7/2 each.  This didn't pay for the losers though and the net result was - 3 points.  This makes a c/fwd of -9.56 points.

    My alternatives had 2 winners out of 11 selections but created a loss of -3.75. this gives a c/fwd of - 75.2

    60 races to look at tomorrow.  I'll be glad when this trial of the big 3 is over it is too time consuming.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I suppose that I shouldn't complain too much as at least I got a double and a win bet in today.  Very sadly my short priced selection Thistle Do Nicely was tragically injured in its race.

    The double Returned £27.00 and my single £5.50; therefore my net profit was £27.50.  My new balance is £717.13 (Bank £1056.22)

     

  14. 31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    If it was a system selection I'd have no problem betting on it.

    I'd rather put it on that than any of the 150/1 shots in the same race.

    Haha, not taking much of a chance are you.  Anyway I will be laying selected odds on shots from the 1st October.

    And just so as not to offend the over read and stressed PL member @NigwilliamI will be posting these on the daily racing chat thread.

    Banned from doing so on this thread by the illustrious @Valiant Thorwho threatened not to post up any more selections on this thread until I did so.  Despite me not posting up "lay" selections as promised he seems to have gone very quiet with no posts at all

     

  15. 28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

     

     I posted this last Saturday.

    "One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."

    So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?

    The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.

    Well, to make money in this game one has to be selective and that includes placing money on odds on favourites.

    Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?

     

  16. BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

    These are not tips

    B/Fwd Sep -6.56

    1.00 Hd Locherbie 8/13                                                  Alt (4) 3/1

    3.10 Hd Dream Weaver 2/1                                            Alt (1) 9/2

    1.15 Nm Al Jaddaf 4/9 DTR                                            Alt No Bet

    3.35 Nm Master Of The Seas  5/4                                  Alt (2) 9/4

    2.45 List Game Catch 7/2                                              Alt (13) 6/1

    3.20 List Lord Gillgooley 5/2                                         Alt (3) 6/1

    3.55 List Buttons And Bows 2/1 DTR                            Alt (7) 7/1

    3.50 YK A Boy Named Ivy 11/4                                    Alt (7) 6/1

    2.52 Worc Thistle Do Nicely 5/4  DTR                           Alt (2) 7/2

    4.35 Worc Golf Clair 15/8                                            Alt (8) 5/2

    5.07 Worc London Eye 2/1                                         Alt (9) 6/1

    8.00 Nc Musashaba 7/2                                             Alt (2) 10/3

    12 Selections from 51 races = 23.5%

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Book Bets

    2.25 Nm Forbearance 5/1

    2.52 Worc Thistle Do Nicely 6/5

    8.00 Nc Musashaba 7/2

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £109.50.

    Had £1 win at 9/2 on Jessica Harrington's Forbearance in the 2.25 at Nm

      = £5 staked so far

  17. 25 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    Do you have any data to support this ?

    No, but when you say things like "you won't go far wrong by backing odds on favourites this is clearly not true.

    My Best of The Best selections bear testimony to the fact that one will lose money by backing odds on favourites.

    That is not to say that you lose money by backing odds on favourites, you have a selection process that excludes other odds on false favourites. 

    One has to be very careful imo about touting the benefits of backing odds on favourites without very careful consideration

    For example there is one running today in the 5.00 at Listowel a Willie Mullins horse named Mt Leinster, currently being offered at a best price of 8/13.  I doubt very much that your selection process will have you lumping on this one 🙂

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