The Equaliser
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Posts
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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4.25 Weth Rostello 1 pt win at 5/1 with Bet365
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2.25 Lin Cappananty Con 0.50 ew at 17/2 and Real Estate 0.50 ew at 11/1 4p both
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@TheBrigadierI like the look of the new PL Home page, however, there seem to be quite a few race time errors for the Free tips on it today
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2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Ermmm was it only you that took my BAN ALL ODDS ON SHOTS followed by Yayyyyyy and a load of laughing emojis seriously? I think most who read that saw/realised that i was sarcastically having a laugh, well i hope they did.
I believe @Gary66commented that it was a great idea. And it is
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5 hours ago, roger2256 said:
For goodness sake it's a ' naps' competition, nap being a person's best bet of the day whether that be 1/10 or 100/1 is irrelevant , if bog is defunct then industry sp is the only sensible option .
Don't be drawn in by a certain 'members' constant attempt to change the rules to suit himself and uses the 'grind 'em down till I get my way' approach.
You start making restrictions of highest/ lowest price , minimum winners , what times you can register your selection and some contributors will take the opinion it's just not worth the hassle.
Simplicity is always the way to go.
How you can possibly say that I am attempting to change the rules to suit myself is unbelievable. In what way could this be true? I am merely suggesting changes to improve the fun and challenge of the competition. It would be easy to exclude all selections that are returned Odds on at SP. I agree with @Zilzalianto put a ban on all odds on shots. I emphasise that I am NOT trying to stir up trouble just trying to improve the quality of the competition. If you believe for one second that when members are playing a tactical game in putting up odds on shots that they are doing so because it is their best bet of the day you are very naive
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29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Not far off. The median is 42. Average is 48. Highest is 125. Lowest is 18.
I'm not convinced about the minimum winners rule, all I would do is pick a couple of odds on shots and then go for the big priced winner.
I believe that Gary did say to exclude odds on shots from the main overall winner part of the comp to avoid the scenario you have described.
- Gary66 and justanotherpunter
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34 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Sometimes you see something in racing that beggars belief, Today in a class 4 chase at Hexham, Houston Texas won at 11/2 why does this beggar belief you may ask, well go back to the class 2 Eider chase where it went off at the price of 17/2, The Eider as we would all probably agree is a very competitive 4m 1 1/2f handicap and i am sure is on many a trainers targets for the season, More to the point many punters who i have respect for on this site tipped/mentioned it in various comments. Anyway thanks to "punters in general" short memories and lack of notebooks I would like to thank them all for letting this one slip under the radar and make me a months worth of profits where really it should have been a couple of days worth. If one retrospectively looks back at this race and previous form one might wonder why Twoshotoftequila went of fav and Houston Texas went off at 11/2, Anyway that's my musing for the day.
It's always good to learn when you have a substantial win; I think you may find that some fellow members would have liked to have heard this after you secured your bet at good odds and before the race was off. Well done on the win anyway
- Nigwilliam and MCLARKE
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6.30 Wolv Twilight Revenge 1 pt win at 12/1 with Bet365
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24 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
4.30 En Meme Temps 0.50 ew at 16/1 2p
Back soon with other bets
RESULTS UPDATE.
Well, that was a nice surprise. should have napped it haha. Anyway, I think I won't bother with Wolves apart from putting up a non-stake nag at a long price just to maintain an interest in the comp. Makes my MMTD +57.65 and YTD -37.62
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7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
One paragraph of entirely fair comment followed by an obviously tongue in cheek suggestion.
You can’t cry foul every time people grow weary of your repeated posts on a subject and exercise their right to reply.
Look mate, I am fed up with people regurgitating everything I have ever said or done in the past when I am discussing a current topical issue on the forum.
Is it really necessary?
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Just now, harry_rag said:
For someone so indifferent you’ve spent a lot of time and effort proposing amendments! I vote for “moaning and complaining” and “starting an argument in an empty room” over “engaging in a lively debate”. It was your initial praise for the excitement of the most winners comp that stirred all this up in the first place.
It comes over as a lack of gratitude and criticism of @MCLARKE’s running of the competition. I think a 2 month ban from the naps comp is merited!
Stop your personal attacks on me. It is not nice and not necessary
- harry_rag and justanotherpunter
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5 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:
I do not believe you followed the "spirit of the competition" about a year ago when we were head to head . You know what you did that day, no need for me to repeat it. I still won anyway. But get off the moral high ground. Its a free comp that brings happiness to most people who enter.
Stop your personal attacks, it is not nice and not necessary
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9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
I seem to remember once you betting favs ew to win the KO cup am i right?
That is the way to win that comp. I have won it twice.
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2 hours ago, Wanderlust said:
Stop moaning and complaining will you.
I am neither moaning or complaining, I was just engaging in a lively debate. Can you not see that? I truly applaud @Alastairfor using the rules of the competition to win "the most winners" aspect of the Naps comp the most number of times. The problem as I see it now is that many more members are copying him and then, usually for the remainder of any new month the comp becomes boring.
Personally, I don't give a toss whatever the minimal profit level is. For my part, I will just play along with trying to find Naps at decent prices 3/1 + for a period during the month, which I believe to be the spirit of the competition. Once I feel that I have achieved a decent profit level I may switch to odds on shots if I feel like having a go at trying to win it. All very boring but hey, if that's the way to win then that's the way to go 🙂
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1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:
Not really.
They have all picked some good big priced winners and some shorter priced ones.
Generally to win the naps competition you need a big priced winner somewhere in there. I think Wanderlust has had a 25/1 winner, Lord Mulberry 16/1 and Gary66 33/1.
Ah OK, I stand corrected.
On the RPR +10 points I suggested for very short priced favourites I am wondering if anyone on here is a subscriber to the Racing Post. If so they may be able to obtain the history of winners that were 10+ clear on RPR ratings. If these horses win 8 out of 10 times then 1/2 looks like a juicy price.
This should also work with Timeform ratings but they have stopped me from getting them on the free plugin on Chrome and MS Edge
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30 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Good luck with getting 10 winners at 4/1 or more, I'll set you the challenge !
I agree with Alistair, achieving a £10 profit is not easy and should be commended not penalised
You only have to look to the naps table this month to see there are at least 3 contenders who were on a par with this. @Wanderlust, @LordMulberryand @Gary66. Understandably, they will try to win the comp with outsiders now because the most winners has been won.
- Gary66 and LordMulberry
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4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I would be very interested.
Odds on bets are fantastic and often offer great value. As I've said before I much prefer a 1/10 winner to a 10/1 loser.
I am just analysing the naps over the last 2 years and the most profitable area is those naps at 1/4 or less
94 wins from 103 selections (91% strike rate) with a profit of 11 points (10.4% ROI)
I think he was joking.
I believe that if you find horses in a race with 10 or more points clear in the RPR ratings at short odds (avoiding abnormalities such as an un-raced super star etc) you will find that the success rate is very high indeed. EclairDAinay was a good example today in the 1.25 at M/R @Johnrobertson's clincher. RPR was 128 v 80 nearest rival. won by 27 lengths
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40 minutes ago, Alastair said:
I am one of the "villains" here in that I have dared to adopt a strategy that gives me what I think would be the best chance of winning the Most Winners comp which I have won more often than anyone. I have never won the monthly comp or come close to it - the standard of tipping on this website is high and at least one punter will come up with a winner at 40/1+ every month and I have never tried to compete with that. But the point is that to get to £10 profit is actually pretty tough in a month - representing around 30% on turnover- and anyone who does so should be congratulated, not cut out of winning one of the competitions.
Well Ok, but you yourself have stated that in the real world, you never put money on a horse at less than 6/4 so you are putting up selections that you would never back. Month after month we see someone get to the £10 profit level and then hang on in there with odds on shots. It doesn't happen rarely it happens often. Hence, I see no reason why the bar shouldn't be raised a bit
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Totally disorganised today, with too much domestic stuff
3.20 Lin Brunel Charm 1 pt win at 11/1
4.45 Nc Jamil (BH) 1 pt win at 15/2 (backed last night)
8.00 Km Vazir 0.50 ew at 10/1 3p
= 3 points staked so far
6.00 Km starlight Nation 0.50 win at 13/2, Enbon 0.50 win at 12/1
7.30 Km Dubai Station 0.50 ew at 12/1
8.30 Km Kondratiev Wave 0.50 win at 5/1 and Phoenix star 0.50 win at 13/2
Total stakes = 6 points today
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No winners today so - 6 points. Makes my MTD +47.65 and YTD -47.62
Not having a lot of luck with outsiders these last couple of days. Very tricky this business. I will probably revert back to 3/1 - 5/1 shots soon, probably 2nd and 3rd favourites
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1 hour ago, Johnrobertson said:
First competition I've won since 2021 and I cause this uproar!
I've been working on an odds on system anyone want to see it? 😆😆😆
Trouble maker.................................Only kidding. Congratulations in winning "the most winners" part of the Nap comp. this month. Richly deserved
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Totally disorganised today, with too much domestic stuff
3.20 Lin Brunel Charm 1 pt win at 11/1
4.45 Nc Jamil (BH) 1 pt win at 15/2 (backed last night)
8.00 Km Vazir 0.50 ew at 10/1 3p
= 3 points staked so far
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3.20 Lin Brunel Charm 1 pt win at 12/1 with Betfair
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27 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
Glad it's not just me! I don't think the comment makes any sense at all. Unless I'm missing something, in the context of how you record the results then 1 point is effectively £1, the 2 are interchangeable.
What I was kinda getting at was if the minimum number for most winners was 10 then if contributors got 10 winners at a minimum of 4/1 odds then they would have 40 points profit less 20 losers at 1 point = £20 profit. I.e they would only need 10 winners or even less if they got better odds on other winning bets.
Sorry for the confusion
Racing Chat-Friday 31st March.
in At The Races
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
L15
3.25 Weth Dare To Shout 11/4
4.25 Weth Rostello 4/1
4.35 Lin Man On A Mission 7/2
4.50 Sou Jubilee Girl 11/4
1 x 0.20 win L15 = 3 pts = poss return 148.71
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Singles:
3.25 Weth Fransham 0.50 ew at 18/1 4p
3.55 Weth Shetland Bus 0.50 ew at 18/1 2p
4.25 Weth Rostello 1.50 win at 8.2
4.55 Weth Storm Spirit 0.50 ew at 17/2 and Anabelles Dream 0.50 ew at 16/1 4p
4.20 Sou Wonderful World 0.50 ew at 20/1, Fai Fai 0.50 ew at 25/1 4p
4.50 sou First Charge 1 pt win at 8.4
Total stakes = 13.50
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Only one placed winner so far, so not good
I will try a 1 pt win on Kapono at 9.2 in the 8.20 at Newc. It needs to build on its last effort
14.5 total stakes