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The Equaliser

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Posts posted by The Equaliser

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Lucky15Ref: 341500751

    4 Selections

    15. Harswell Duke - 13/2Winner - 14:25 Doncaster
     
    4. Liberty Lane - 13/2Winner - 15:35 Doncaster
     
    4. King's Reign - 11/4Winner - 16:10 Doncaster

    2. At Liberty - 9/2Winner - 16:45 Doncaster

     
    Stake£ 3.00
    Potential Returns£ 445.94
    Keep bets in betslip?
    Total Stake£ 3.00
    Total Potential Returns£ 445.94
     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Lucky15Ref: 341477471

    4 Selections

    4. What A Johnny - 15/2Winner - 14:00 Bangor-on-Dee
     
    5. Party Vibes - 5/1Winner - 15:15 Newbury
     
    1. Regent's Stroll - 11/4Winner - 15:50 Newbury
     
    6. Fantomas - 5/2Winner - 16:15 Bangor-on-Dee
     
    Stake£ 3.00
    Potential Returns£ 284.09
    Keep bets in betslip?
    Total Stake£ 3.00
    Total Potential Returns£ 284.09

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    Nothing anyone does on here or says to me on here would offend me because i already know i'm a twat, most people just bet for fun and most people lose overall so you are no different, and small amounts is sensible but you keep either missing the point or choose to miss the point, My previous advice to you was around lucky 15s which you eventually shifted too which was only half of my point the other half was that if you are going to lose money and are comfortable with what you lose then why be so timid? i will try one last time, here is my advice- do the lucky 15's sack the pathetic ew at those skinny prices they really are worthless. Now here is the main point Lucky 15's are loved by the bookies because people tend to put 4 short prices or favs on them, so drop the favs and 2nd favs and choose upwards of 4/1, 4/1 being your shortest price then pick 3 at decent prices, i have said elsewhere all the prices ideally should add up to around 40, in your case lets say 30 and remember, yes you want all 4 to win but that is quite rare so you are looking for a treble eg lets just say W8/1 W8/1 W8/1 winners  which equates to 1000/1 so even to 10p that's a hundred quid (2 winners at 8/1 gets you a tenner). The point being if you are going to consistently lose (like most of us do) then when you do get lucky (like most of us do)  then at least the returns are worth the loses or if we never win then there is no difference, the loss of stake like you said is the cost of the enjoyment of having a bet. Staking plan? You say you stake 7.5 points, so do 2x20p lucky 15's =£6 (or half that if you are being prudent) then as Clarkey has suggested bet your nap with the extra £1.50 thats 8 horses per day to amuse you and keep you interested. One other thing- avoid betting two horses in the same race which is another really bad habit of yours.

    Many thanks, I will heed your advice. 

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    To be fair I think @The Equaliserdoes very well with his naps (better than you and I !) and he would probably be better sticking all his money on this selection (quality rather than quantity) if he wants to maximise his profit (which might not be his actual objective).

    Hi Michael,

    I will focus on trying to find a good nap bet in future and at least try to be profitable that way.  However, I do like my fun bets and am a Lucky 15 convert, of course, influenced by @Zilzalian who got me away from Trixie bets

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    Legitimate enough as a starting point. Personally (as an occasional L15 bettor) I only do it when the return for all 4 placing is big enough to make me wince a bit if I miss out on it. The question about whether it is a worthwhile approach or, perhaps, falls into @Zilzalian’s “fear of losing” category is easily solved. Is the place aspect of the bet profitable in the long run? Hopefully you record your bets in such a way that it can be easily checked, given that you’d have a decent sample size of these bets by now.

    Hi Harry,

    The place aspect on the accumulator only costs me 50p. I used to do 25p each way but Betfred increased the stake to 50p.  Even though the returns are rubbish, it is still fun to check to see if all my horses got placed. Contrast this with an each-way lucky 15. the place element would cost £1.50 so I tend not to do this as I'm not a complete mug believe it or not. 

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    With respect and i have to be careful when communicating with you because you seem to be a very sensitive sort and get a bit titsy whenever i challenge your thinking. However in all the time i have been on here you have never won anything apart from a few KO cup competitions and lose money year on year. A few members have given you good advice over the years but you just ignore them or come up with a reason to just carry on regardless. Most bettors are quite prepared to lose pounds to achieve a goal but you are terrified of losing pennies which is very strange because that is what you constantly do, lose pennies that turn into pounds. I have said before you need to throw out everything you are doing and find a different approach/angle because if you keep banging your head against this brick wall you will be spending more money on paracetamol than the horses. In your defence i will say at least you involve yourself in most aspects of the site which is good but that does open you up for responses from other members as does anything i or anyone else might put up.

    Yes, I do need to find criteria for my bets that will make them profitable in the long run. But the fun for me is seeking it out.  Fun is the operative word. My intention has always been to have a number of bets each day that I can watch and enjoy without losing my shirt. I have never sought to be a professional gambler on the Forum.  I am quite happy to break even over a year.  I got my losses down last year.  I will continue to say, have 3 Lucky 15's on some race days as this gives me pleasure and all or just 7.50 points.  This is  without bringing in singles bets which I do have to get my stakes back.  This is usually the worst aspect of my betting.  Don't people, other than me just bet for fun? . If you or anybody else can come up with a profitable formula for making money on horse racing and like to share it with me I will willingly apply it to cover my fun bets.

    As to the KO Cup, I believe that I have won it more than anyone else since 2016 and I'm proud of it.

    I do bet in small amounts because I don't have confidence in my selections to bet more on them.  However, I find the challenge in trying to find the right formula for profitable betting one of the things that maintain my interest.

    If it offends you that I put up losing bets for fun when everyone else is trying to become a pro, let me know and I will stop posting.

     

     

     

     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

    Explain the reasoning behind an ew fourfold and in particular the place aspect at prices 5/1, 15/8, 13/8 & 9/4. I really am genuinely curious. @harry_rag if these prices were on football how would you treat them? @MCLARKE you are into your maths, what are your thoughts are there any merits in your view?

    I know that the place bet element brings about lousy returns usually on L15's and Acca's, apart from your big-priced selections which justifies it as a bet in its own right.  However, I am content to recover my whole stake and more sometimes when all of the selections get placed.

    Racing Chat - Monday 18th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    B/fwd L15's -49.16, RC -61.24 (inc L15's)

    Had 2 L15's and Accas today = 5 pts

    4.30 Sou Jubilee Gold 2.50 pts win at 6 = 9.80 profit if win.  Savers = Hostile Hotelier 1.50 at 3.45 = 0.17 p, if win and Pozo Emery 1 pt win at 7.6 for a 2.55 p if win = 5 points.  Knowing my luck Peter Bowen will make a flying fortune on the race.  Should be an exciting watch though

    = 10 points staked today.

    Kicking myself for not including @Gary66selection in the Curragh's 2.05 .  Showed real force with that one.  Well done to him

     

     

     

    Only 1 winner so far on the L15's.  At least retrieved my stake on the 4.30 at Southwell

    Will try 1 pt ew on Angel Amadea at 11/2 4p with Skybet.  I hope that Big Nastie runs well too

    = 12 pts staked today

    Racing Chat - Monday 18th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    B/fwd L15's -49.16, RC -61.24 (inc L15's)

    Had 2 L15's and Accas today = 5 pts

    4.30 Sou Jubilee Gold 2.50 pts win at 6 = 9.80 profit if win.  Savers = Hostile Hotelier 1.50 at 3.45 = 0.17 p, if win and Pozo Emery 1 pt win at 7.6 for a 2.55 p if win = 5 points.  Knowing my luck Peter Bowen will make a flying fortune on the race.  Should be an exciting watch though

    = 10 points staked today.

    Kicking myself for not including @Gary66selection in the Curragh's 2.05 .  Showed real force with that one.  Well done to him

     

     

     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Each Way 4 Fold AccumulatorRef: 338465978

    4 Selections

    1. Sailing Grace - 6/1Winner - 15:18 FontwellEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    4. Ideallko - 11/2Winner - 16:18 FontwellEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    4. Jubilee Gold - 4/1Winner - 16:30 SouthwellEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    2. Fortuitous Favour - 4/1Winner - 16:48 FontwellEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    Stake£1.00
    Win Stake£0.50
    Place Stake£0.50
    Potential Returns£580.63
     
    Lucky15Ref: 338465981

    4 Selections

    1. Sailing Grace - 6/1Winner - 15:18 Fontwell
     
    4. Ideallko - 11/2Winner - 16:18 Fontwell
     
    4. Jubilee Gold - 4/1Winner - 16:30 Southwell
     
    2. Fortuitous Favour - 4/1Winner - 16:48 Fontwell
     
    Stake£1.50
    Potential Returns£215.90
    Retain Selections
    Total Stake£2.50
    Total Potential Returns£796.53

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Each Way 4 Fold AccumulatorRef: 338464973

    4 Selections

    6. Seaside Legend - 5/1Winner - 14:13 FontwellEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places
     
    1. Barlovento - 15/8Winner - 15:00 SouthwellEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    2. Innisfree Lass - 13/8Winner - 17:00 SouthwellEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    8. Zumaaty - 9/4Winner - 20:30 NewcastleEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places
     
    Stake£1.00
    Win Stake£0.50
    Place Stake£0.50
    Potential Returns£76.58
     
    Lucky15Ref: 338464976

    4 Selections

    6. Seaside Legend - 5/1Winner - 14:13 Fontwell
     
    1. Barlovento - 15/8Winner - 15:00 Southwell
     
    2. Innisfree Lass - 13/8Winner - 17:00 Southwell
     
    8. Zumaaty - 9/4Winner - 20:30 Newcastle
     
    Stake£1.50
    Potential Returns£41.69
    Retain Selections
    Total Stake£2.50
    Total Potential Returns£118.27
     

    Racing chat - Sunday 17 March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser

    2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    B/fwd L15's -46.6 and Racing Chat (RC) -52.64 (incl L15's)

    Had 2.50 on the daily L15's

    1.32 Hunt Flamelco 2 pts win at 5.1 for a 6.08 profit. 1 pt win saver bets on Yellow Jacket (Trotter's selection) and 1 pt win on Dumeomeno each to recover 0.39 pts if my nap fails to fire.

    I think that @Trotteris doing very well on the £20 challenge and all his selections should be checked out daily by forum members

    Total stakes today = 6.50

     

    Well, that didn't work out.  My Naps & savers are -8 pts so far; I will persevere with them

    4.27 Hunt Hola Hermosa 1.1 at 8.78 poss 7 pts profit and Prickly Rose 1 pt win at 9.4 = 7 pts profit if win.  Both horses are for trainers with a good record in NHF races.  I am hoping that I don't get shafted by Barra Blue who is Fergal O'Brien's other runner and is favourite for the race

    Total stakes = 8.60 today

    Racing chat - Sunday 17 March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    B/fwd L15's -46.6 and Racing Chat (RC) -52.64 (incl L15's)

    Had 2.50 on the daily L15's

    1.32 Hunt Flamelco 2 pts win at 5.1 for a 6.08 profit. 1 pt win saver bets on Yellow Jacket (Trotter's selection) and 1 pt win on Dumeomeno each to recover 0.39 pts if my nap fails to fire.

    I think that @Trotteris doing very well on the £20 challenge and all his selections should be checked out daily by forum members

    Total stakes today = 6.50

     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Each Way 4 Fold AccumulatorRef: 336586484

    4 Selections

    1. Flamelco - 7/2Winner - 13:32 HuntingdonEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    6. Airtothethrone - 5/1Winner - 13:50 ChepstowEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places
     
    10. Try The Money - 7/2Winner - 14:07 HuntingdonEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    3. Dasher - 9/1Winner - 14:42 HuntingdonEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places
     
    Stake£1.00
    Win Stake£0.50
    Place Stake£0.50
    Potential Returns£617.34
     
    Lucky15Ref: 336586487

    4 Selections

    1. Flamelco - 7/2Winner - 13:32 Huntingdon
     
    6. Airtothethrone - 5/1Winner - 13:50 Chepstow
     
    10. Try The Money - 7/2Winner - 14:07 Huntingdon
     
    3. Dasher - 9/1Winner - 14:42 Huntingdon
     
    Stake£1.50
    Potential Returns£232.83
    Retain Selections
    Total Stake£2.50
    Total Potential Returns£850.17
     

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

    I notice you never put your monthly or yearly P/L up anymore how come?

    I do write them up quite regularly but tend to just quote YTD figures.  Since you ask I have updated my figures to include today's bets.  Lucky 15's YTD  = -46.66; Racing Chat (RC) YTD including L15's = -52.64 Points.

    I was a bit annoyed with myself today for not backing my Nap selection Slipaway independently of the L15

    Surely you can't retire, who will check up on me regularly 🤣

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Each Way 4 Fold AccumulatorRef: 335984579

    4 Selections

    5. Beau Balko - 11/4Winner - 13:35 KemptonEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    9. One Eye On Vegas - 3/1Winner - 13:50 UttoxeterEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places
     
    3. Flegmatik - 3/1Winner - 14:45 KemptonEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places
     
    2. The Changing Man - 4/1Winner - 15:35 UttoxeterEach Way: 1/4 Odds 2 Places
     
    Stake£ 1.00
    Win Stake£ 0.50
    Place Stake£ 0.50
    Potential Returns£ 154.32
    Lucky15Ref: 335984585

    4 Selections

    5. Beau Balko - 11/4Winner - 13:35 Kempton

    9. One Eye On Vegas - 3/1Winner - 13:50 Uttoxeter

    3. Flegmatik - 3/1Winner - 14:45 Kempton
     
    2. The Changing Man - 4/1Winner - 15:35 Uttoxeter
     
    Stake£ 1.50
    Potential Returns£ 71.15
    Keep bets in betslip?
    Total Stake£ 2.50
    Total Potential Returns£ 225.47
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