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The Equaliser

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Posts posted by The Equaliser

  1. Trixie

    3.40 Her Fay Ce Que Voudras 4/1

    4.10 Her Pachacuti 3/1

    7.30 Wolv Johnny Boom 11/4 (my PL Nap today)

    1 x 0.50 win Trixie = poss ret 64.39

    Singles and savers

    3.40 Her Asa 0.50 win at 5/1

    4.10 Her Bebraveforglory 0.50 win at 5/1

    4.55 Her Jupiter Express 1 pt win at 6.6 (has wide draw to overcome)

    6.30 Wolv Pride Of Yorkshire 0.50 win at 22/1

    7.30 Roscilio 1 pt win at 4.2

    Total stakes = 5.50 (possibily a bit high)

    RESULTS UPDATE

    Terrible run by Johnny Boom, was last most of the way around the track; no chance of getting on terms.  Don't know if the draw could be blamed.  Pity too that Pachacuti was beaten by a Hereford specialist under Lilly Pinchin, though the horse thoroughly deserved to win.  That scuppered my Trixie.

    My win bets did no good either.  I thought that my stakes were a bit high today so I have come up with a master plan that I will use with regard to my multiple bets.  This is that I will place these bets as usual but instead of having any saver bets I will include just one win bet on my most fancied selection to cover the cost of the multiple bet.  This will keep the costs down and if all fails then I won't have lost many points either.  I will also be looking for some big-priced winners with 0.50 win bets.  I will try to cap these at 2 points per day.  

    My loss today was -5.50 which brings my MTD to -7.76 (this time last year I was -56.56 so I am doing better and hopefully will do much better soon)

     

  2. LAY BET

    7.00 Wolves Hit Mac 2.04 at 2.40 = 2 v (2.86).  Very consistent horse and has a good chance of winning this race.  Not sure if blinkers will work the oracle and there are quite a few in the race that could thwart its effort.  George Boughey also runs the frustrating Danger Alert in the previous race and is trying blinkers on this one too.  I think this would be better with a hood than blinkers.  However, the horse should have a better chance at winning than my chosen lay selection regarding class and lack of competition.  Other short-priced horses look too dangerous to lay today

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    Hit Mac finally wins; by a neck.  I don't think George Boughey has ever had 3 winners at one meeting before today.  At least I chose the most vulnerable of his horses running today.  I think that the wide draw thwarted Tom Marquand's effort on Boom The Groom.  A loss of 2.86 today brings the MTD to - 7.19.  I will look for more lay prospects tomorrow

  3. Trixie

    1.00 Kel Faithful Flyer 5/2

    1.30 Kel Dragonfruit 7/4

    2.30 Kel Beat Box 2/1

    1 x 0.50 win Trixie = poss return of 28.61

    Singles and Savers

    1.00 Kel Barnabus Collins 0.25 win at 14/1

    3.20 Sou Just Call Me Pete 1 pt win at 3.80 and The Thin Blue Line 0.25 win at 14/1

    Total stakes = 3.50 today

    Justcallmepete saves the day.  Many thanks to Richard @richard-westwood.  should have been bold and put it in my Trixie; playing safe will be the death of me. A small profit of 0.24 makes my MTD -2.26

     

  4. LAY BETS

    12.30 Kelso Clovis Boy.  This poor horse has been gelded, had a wind op, and is being tongue-tied for its first run on a race course.  In many ways, I hope it wins and rewards connections but it looks worth opposing 2.04 at 2.66 = 2 v (3.39)

    2.50 Sou Win Win Power 2.04 at 1.69 = 2 v (1.41).  It may have been in front at the 7-furlong pole LTO but it hasn't won at 7 furlongs so I don't think it is a shoo-in.  There are two other horses in the field that won LTO as well.

    3 non runners overnight in the 2.50 at Sou.  Have cashed out this bet for 0.19 or 0.20 profit. 

    Haha, Lucinda Russell forgot to add "wings" to Clovis Boy.  Terrible race, they all ran at a crawl for most of it.

    At least I can't lose any money today as I cashed out on the 2.50

    Luckily I cashed out with Win Win Power but would only have lost 0.69 pts had I not.  Profit 2.19 makes my MTD -4.33

  5. 28 minutes ago, kensland said:

    interest this evening.

    Chelmsford City.

    Single'

    8.30. Eltham Palace    17/2

    Double'

    7.30. Yesterday's Hero     4/1

    8.00. Regal Rambler      5/2

    singles & double.

     

    lucky 15.

    5.30. Bawaader      2/1

    6.00. Manuha        15/8

    6.30. Brains          3/1

    7.00. Soaring Edge  10/3

    Good luck all.

    I admire your stamina.  good luck with your bets this evening

  6. Trixie & Win bet

    1.45 Lin SIlkie Wilkie 9/2

    2.32 Weth Iroko 11/8

    3.35 War Ashtown Lad 9/4

    One 0.50 win Trixie - 2 pts poss ret 40.53

    2.40 Km Outlaw Peter 0.50 win at 7/1 (Paul Nichols loves the big Saturday events)

    = 2.50 pts

    NB I will keep these separate from my "LAY" bets records

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    One winner and two seconds so not a bad start.  Skelton mopping up everywhere but not on Ashtown which was sad.  MTD = -2.50

  7. LAY BET

    3.15 Km Quick Draw 2.04 at 2.88 2 v Liability of 3.84.  Looks like it has plenty of competition at 2.5 miles and is possibly vulnerable

    I'm missing my Trixies but whittling down short-priced selections has taught me that I was backing too many selections.  Looks like a good day for a Trixie though.  May do one soon but only 0.50 = 2 pts and a 0.50 win bet = total liability of 2.5 pts 

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    Quick Draw won well so that was a bad selection.  Should have known better to oppose a Henderson horse in form. A loss of 3.84 makes my MTD - 6.52 which is a nuisance.  No worries,  I will keep practising and come up with a decent criteria for my lay bets by latest end of March.

     

  8. 58 minutes ago, jonjo said:

    Good luck today with Whizz Kid, very nice price should it oblige for you, fingers crossed. I tried having a go and put my own profiler up this morning on horseracebase and ended up with Scarface, Hermes Boy and Mark of Gold, with the last named has a claimer on it 🤔 Not expecting much as you seem to be more of an expert at it than me, despite being with horseracebase for 9 years I rarely use the profiler but have started messing about with it and see where it takes me. Good luck.

    Can Horseracebase provide profile details about a horse such as its size and ability to carry big weights or whether suited to skipping along on fast ground , or if it is a long striding horse suited to a galloping track and how it develops over time? The nearest I can find that did this was the Timeform Blackbook which is no longer produced. This is very frustrating for me as an armchair punter.  The information must be out there but I can't find anyone who can provide it  

  9. LAY BET

    3.35 Nc Kraken Power 2.04 at 2.76 = 2 v 3.59 liability.  This horse has a losing run of 29 and has been running over 6 furlongs and is now tried back at 5 furlongs.  Joanna Mason rides instead of Paul Mulrennan.  She has has 3 wins in the last 14 days but not over the minimum distance.  The horse looks worth opposing despite it being one of @The Brigadier's selections that I never like to take on without serious consideration.

    Out of all the short-priced horses running today, this one looks to be the most vulnerable

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    A bit unlucky to be beaten a short head.  Joanna in fine form even in sprints.  -3.59 means a MTD of -2.68.

    Back tomorrow

  10. 4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    LAY BETS

    Very difficult today. Many of the short-priced horses look too dangerous to lay.  In fact, it may pay for PL members to consider some multiple bets using @The Brigadier's tips, though some prices have shortened significantly.

    The nearest selection I could come up with is Downtown Dubai in the 3.15 at Lingfield from the point of view of how quirky the horse has been but I'll leave it.  Also, Miss Dolly Rocker looks vulnerable in the 7.00 at KM but it may do OK at 1m 3 f as its sire won at 1m 4 furlongs.  Hence I'll pass today

    Good luck to all punting today 

    Downtowm fails, the snip job did no good.  Cheers to @The Brigadier4 out of 5 so far, I do hope that some members backed some of these

  11. LAY BETS

    Very difficult today. Many of the short-priced horses look too dangerous to lay.  In fact, it may pay for PL members to consider some multiple bets using @The Brigadier's tips, though some prices have shortened significantly.

    The nearest selection I could come up with is Downtown Dubai in the 3.15 at Lingfield from the point of view of how quirky the horse has been but I'll leave it.  Also, Miss Dolly Rocker looks vulnerable in the 7.00 at KM but it may do OK at 1m 3 f as its sire won at 1m 4 furlongs.  Hence I'll pass today

    Good luck to all punting today 

  12. 1.15 Don Jo Dadancer LAY bet 2.04 at 3.05 = 2 v 4.18.  The price seems to based upon the trainer's reputation.  Nothing wrong with that but there are two other contenders that have shown better form.  Looks like the market is relying on a tongue tie and a wind Op. so I'll take a chance that it will get beat 

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    Beaten 13.75 lengths.  It did run well for a long time during the race though.  A profit of 2 points which makes my MTD +0.91.  I was -47.91 down this time last year so my lay betting is a bit of an improvement.  I will be looking for more horses that have decent opposition and perhaps their price is skewed by trainer reputations in future.

    I really fancied Burrows Park in the first at Exeter trained by Venetia Williams and still kicking myself for not Napping it at least each way.  Should have put it up

     

  13. No Lay bets today.  I wanted to lay Kilbrainy in the 3.20 at Ayr at 3.05 but it has got withdrawn.

    Spent ages looking at possible lays but nothing seems to fit with the short-priced selections today.  Bellagio Man looks vulnerable in the 7.30 at Wolves dropping to 5 furlongs at around 2/1 but I don't have to have a bet so I'll leave it.

    Good luck to all today

  14. 1.40 Chep LAY bet Good Work 2.04 at 2.88 = 2 v 3.84 liability.  Looks to have the best recent form and is tipped up by the Big 3 today which looks a plus. Although it would appear that a left-handed track is just what the horse wants I am not so sure that it will be suited to it on soft going, heavy in places.  Hopefully, it will be held up in last place and struggle to get to the front runners.  Moonlighter looks like the obvious threat and there are a couple of CD winners though on better ground.  Looks worth opposing

    NB I had laid Coconut Splash in the 2.10 which looked like a good lay bet.  However, it has been withdrawn and that is a pity

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    Well not exactly a safe lay bet but it was good see Moonlighter rally back and regain the lead on the run in to win.  Wish I'd napped this instead of Earlofthecotswolds.    +2 pts = MTD -1.09.  Nothing exciting but looking back last year on this day in history to find I was -37.21 at this juncture 

  15. LAY BET: 1.45 Ling Cresta De Vega 2.04 @ 2.48 = +2 v Liab of 3.02.  The horse has to overcome a layoff of 442 days and was gelded over a year ago. It doesn't look to have a glittering career thus far.   Fine Balance trained by George Boughey looks to be the form choice and Momaer and Pysanka trained by Mark Loughnane don't look out of it either.  Hats off to Ralph Beckett if he can pull it off

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    Very good run by the favourite but Momaer leads all the way and wins.  Looks like Billy Loughnane's 7lb claim sealed the deal.  + 2 win makes my MTD -3.09

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