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The Equaliser

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Posts posted by The Equaliser

  1. 7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    My Trixie today at Perth is:

    6.55 Mr Jackman 5/2

    7.25 Thomas Todd 13/2

    7.55 Story Rory 5/2

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £156.62 if all 3 win

    I have also had £2 at 4.2 = £6.27 on Store Rory to recoup my stake should the first two fail.  I may of course cancel this if the first two win

    You'll all be relived to know that this is it for my selections today.  I'm having fun win or lose.  Good luck to all the serious punters on here 🙂

    RESULTS UPDATE

    No winners today but Monets Sunrise got close but Hollie Doyle was in such outstanding form that it got beat (Ryan Moore, best jockey around said Frankie Dettorie recently 🤣.  Also I can't believe the crap ride that Will Buick gave on Space Blues, didn't make its run until oh so late.

     £21.95 loss on the day but I was so pleased to see some of the fancied selections win.  I never mind losing when a favourite wins a race; one for the punters, I say.  And of course @TheBrigadierdid his followers proud.  Very well done to him.

    My new balance is £700.19 (Bank £1056.22)

    We go again at Goodwood tomorrow.  I will stick to the non-favourites throughout this festival and, because of the fiercely competitive nature of these event I won't put my Trixie on here.  Unfortunately when I look elsswhere there seems to be a lot of short priced favourites in the class3/4 events.

    Despite all this I am looking forward to tomorrow's racing

     

     

     

  2. 4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    According to the WH results service the non-runner was declared at 14.11. 

    You posted your selection at 11.54, over 2 hours before it was declared a non runner.

    Non runners:

    • Gweedore



    Rule 4 deductions
    Win - 25p reductions on bets placed between 15:45:31 and 14:11:22

     

    No probs Michael.  So sorry to have troubled you on this; I know that you are busy

     

  3. 17 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Wonderful with the favourites obliging, I do hope that my PL members are making some money

    The last of my fun bets at Goodwood are:

    4.10 Blue De Vega £1 win at10/1

    4.45 Monets sunrise £1 win at 12/1

    5.20 Separate £5 "free" bet, with Bet365; don't know how I got it ) at 10/1

    5.50 Shepherds Way £1 win at 8/1

    Looks like my total stakes are £11.35 at Goodwood today

     

     

    My Trixie today at Perth is:

    6.55 Mr Jackman 5/2

    7.25 Thomas Todd 13/2

    7.55 Story Rory 5/2

    One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £156.62 if all 3 win

    I have also had £2 at 4.2 = £6.27 on Store Rory to recoup my stake should the first two fail.  I may of course cancel this if the first two win

    You'll all be relived to know that this is it for my selections today.  I'm having fun win or lose.  Good luck to all the serious punters on here 🙂

  4. 30 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    I am loving it seeing some well fancied selections going in

    3.35 Gd Nayef Road 3TBP £2 at 6.0 = £9.80 if within the first 3

    4.10 Gd Blue De Vega £1 win at 10/1 with Oisin aboard.  Has form on soft

     

    Wonderful with the favourites obliging, I do hope that my PL members are making some money

    The last of my fun bets at Goodwood are:

    4.10 Blue De Vega £1 win at10/1

    4.45 Monets sunrise £1 win at 12/1

    5.20 Separate £5 "free" bet, with Bet365; don't know how I got it ) at 10/1

    5.50 Shepherds Way £1 win at 8/1

    Looks like my total stakes are £11.35 at Goodwood today

     

     

  5. 2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    My first 3 fun picks at Goodwood

    1.50 Majestic Dawn 70p win at 9/1; Caradoc 70p win at 12/1 and Its a Good Laugh 70p win at 8/1 = £2.10 total spend

    2.25 Eldrick Jones £2.10 win at 6.2

    3.00 Space Blues £2.15 win at 4.4 = £7.16 profit if it wins.  Interesting that Will Buick is on this instead of the favourite

    £6.35 total spend on glorious Goodwood so far 🙂

     

    I am loving it seeing some well fancied selections going in

    3.35 Gd Nayef Road 3TBP £2 at 6.0 = £9.80 if within the first 3

    4.10 Gd Blue De Vega £1 win at 10/1 with Oisin aboard.  Has form on soft

     

  6. 47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    I reckon that my best tip for PL mermbers today is to look at Perth for their selections.  I haven't got around to it yet but will do so later. 

    You can lose a lot of money fast on these festival meetings.  However, I will be back with small stakes for selections so as not to be a complete party pooper

    Yet to look at Perth but:

    7.05 Neachells Bridge £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins

    8.35 Worc Right Destination £4 win at 7 = £23.52 profit if it wins.  Trying to £2 win matched at 3.0 on Pillar Of Steel (gone up a lot in the weights recently) as an insurance cover bet um 2.76 right now

    Poss £8 staked so far

    My first 3 fun picks at Goodwood

    1.50 Majestic Dawn 70p win at 9/1; Caradoc 70p win at 12/1 and Its a Good Laugh 70p win at 8/1 = £2.10 total spend

    2.25 Eldrick Jones £2.10 win at 6.2

    3.00 Space Blues £2.15 win at 4.4 = £7.16 profit if it wins.  Interesting that Will Buick is on this instead of the favourite

    £6.35 total spend on glorious Goodwood so far 🙂

     

  7. I reckon that my best tip for PL mermbers today is to look at Perth for their selections.  I haven't got around to it yet but will do so later. 

    You can lose a lot of money fast on these festival meetings.  However, I will be back with small stakes for selections so as not to be a complete party pooper

    Yet to look at Perth but:

    7.05 Neachells Bridge £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins

    8.35 Worc Right Destination £4 win at 7 = £23.52 profit if it wins.  Trying to £2 win matched at 3.0 on Pillar Of Steel (gone up a lot in the weights recently) as an insurance cover bet um 2.76 right now

    Poss £8 staked so far

  8. 8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    this isn't going well but hats off to Chez Hans for clobbering my selection though it had a significant weight advantage.

    I have struggled to get a good price for my last gasp singles bet to recoup my losses on Global Humour.  I managed to get £2.35 matched at 3.65 = £6.10 profit if it wins. Contrast this with having to put around £3.50 on it at its current price of 2.78 to get my £6.00 back.  Therein lies the proof of getting value.  £1.15 or £11.50 at tens times the stake; win or lose

     

    RESULTS UPDATE

    Thinking about it had used the old addage that you can give away weight but not distance I could have chosen Chez Hans.  Also, I think I was wrongly influenced by the RP and ATR with Ayr Of Elegance.  The timeform and RPR ratings also impaired my judgment.  This means that there was the possibility of me choosing the right selections but I got side tracked.

    My singles bet paid off and I made a tiny profit of 11p on the day.  My new balance is £721.54 (Bank £1056.22)

    Will only be looking at glorius Goodwood tomorrow.  Some big fields so a definite caution with regard to stakes, bookies specials or no bookies specials

  9. 6 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

    All bets win only unless stated otherwise.

    Lingfield

    3.00 Regal Rhapsody 5/1 2nd

    3.30 Makashi 2/1 4th

    3.30 Roman Power 20/1 EW 9th

    4.05 Ghazaaly 20/1 EW 6th

     

    Ayr

    2.50 Fandabidozi 9/2 2nd

    3.20 Royal Advice 11/1 EW 6th.

    4.30 Clay Regazzoni 8/1 6th

    4.30 Sorbonne 10/1 EW 8th

    Looks like you and your followers saved a bit of money by not doing some win bets each way

  10. 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Robbed of time again but I have a Trixie arranged today:

    2.05 Nabb Thahab Ifraj 5/4

    2.40 Nabb Ayr Of Elegance 5/2

    3.20 Ayr Global Humour 11/4

    One £1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 = £88.43 if all 3 win.  I will place a singles bet ton the last leg to recoup my stake should the first two fail to win

    I have a free bet on fiesole for £5.05 should the Doc perform a miracle.  

    I can't seem to find decent alternative bets in the other races

    Back later for the evening meetings

     

     

    this isn't going well but hats off to Chez Hans for clobbering my selection though it had a significant weight advantage.

    I have struggled to get a good price for my last gasp singles bet to recoup my losses on Global Humour.  I managed to get £2.35 matched at 3.65 = £6.10 profit if it wins. Contrast this with having to put around £3.50 on it at its current price of 2.78 to get my £6.00 back.  Therein lies the proof of getting value.  £1.15 or £11.50 at tens times the stake; win or lose

     

  11. 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    I don't think there is any advantage on the exchanges, the advantage is because of the each way terms that the bookmakers offer, i.e. the extra place offered when there are 16 runners compared to 15. The odds on the exhanges will reflect this.

    I don't have any preference for backing favourites in these races but if I have a selection I will back it each way rather than to win.

     

     

    I suspect that there is value to be had in checking the Betfair betting exchange for 4th and 5th places but as you say the odds are cramped when one looks.  I would need something like 2.02 which means I would be staking around £20 as I would on an even money shot.  For those who want to look and try and get a good price e.g. at least 1/4 the odds as they would get from the special offer bookmakers then this may suit them.  I am very apprehensive about puting £20 on even money shots anyway so with all the work involved for me it is not worth the effort.  Many thanks for your reply

  12. Robbed of time again but I have a Trixie arranged today:

    2.05 Nabb Thahab Ifraj 5/4

    2.40 Nabb Ayr Of Elegance 5/2

    3.20 Ayr Global Humour 11/4

    One £1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 = £88.43 if all 3 win.  I will place a singles bet ton the last leg to recoup my stake should the first two fail to win

    I have a free bet on fiesole for £5.05 should the Doc perform a miracle.  

    I can't seem to find decent alternative bets in the other races

    Back later for the evening meetings

     

     

  13. 6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    5.00  Uttx Euro Du Boulay £1 win at 12/1; Shentri £1 win at 6/1 & saver bet of £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45 if it wins.  Clear Timeform top rated = £4 staked

     

    RESULTS UPDATE

    No winners today so a straight loss of £11.20 This makes a new balance of £721.43 (£1056.22)

    Only two class 3 races tomorrow so I will have to look at class 4 events if I want some choice

  14. 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

    That appears to be a subjective view rather than one based on facts.

    All my betting is based on logic and maths and this shows that EW betting on 16+ handicaps is logical.

    As regards odds on shots these can sometimes represent excellent value so I wouldn't dismiss them completely.

    Very interesting Michael, if 16+ handicaps can be profitable then why not put the place bet on Betfair Exchange when they run 4 & 5 places sometimes, possibly even in races fewer than 16? The win bet could be either arranged with a bookmaker or the betting exchange.  And, in the main would you be considering favourites for this type of bet?

     

  15. 7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    Never managed to watch it because we had guests. Just read  it won by a few lengths and won comfortable. 

    Yes but it made a hash of a jump and almost got rid of Tom O'Brien; You may well enjoy watching a rerun for future reference for the horse

     

  16. 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Finding it difficult today

    2.50 Uttx Friends Don't Ask £3.20 win at 7.6 = £20.70 if it wins.  Running well but seriously up in class.  Insurance bet on Nevilles Cross £ 1 win at 7/2.  Up 10lbs but should run very well

    3.00 Ponte Afandem £2 win at 15.5 = £28.42 if it wins.  Was showing up as 4/1 last night and is now completely friendless.  A bit unreliable but the Easterby team are no slouches.  The favourite Corinthian Knight has drifted out over night and Zamarud doesn't look like a sure thing either

    3.25 Uttx I think one has to be desperate to have a bet to back anything in this now the favourite has been withdrawn.  Shocking contenders for a class 3 event

    Possibly back later

    £6.20 total stakes so far

    3.55 Muss Drawdown £1 win at 17/2 with Bet365.  Was 4/1 last night and drifted like a barge.  Money for Sherdi 9/4 to 7/4 & also money for Buckshaw Village too.  However, who knows what will happen until they race.  I'll go with the drifter

     

  17. Finding it difficult today

    2.50 Uttx Friends Don't Ask £3.20 win at 7.6 = £20.70 if it wins.  Running well but seriously up in class.  Insurance bet on Nevilles Cross £ 1 win at 7/2.  Up 10lbs but should run very well

    3.00 Ponte Afandem £2 win at 15.5 = £28.42 if it wins.  Was showing up as 4/1 last night and is now completely friendless.  A bit unreliable but the Easterby team are no slouches.  The favourite Corinthian Knight has drifted out over night and Zamarud doesn't look like a sure thing either

    3.25 Uttx I think one has to be desperate to have a bet to back anything in this now the favourite has been withdrawn.  Shocking contenders for a class 3 event

    Possibly back later

    £6.20 total stakes so far

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