Smiles Tennis

It's great to read your thoughts @Grass Cash but there really is no such thing as a lock. No player is guaranteed to win, even if there's a very high chance that they will. 

Whoops! I haven't been on here as much recently and didn't read it properly. I am an idiot! 😂
 
I will double check next time. lol

He was commenting on his own pick, so no issues there haha!

Cirstea to beat Zheng - 3.2 on Betfair
Zheng has been terrible since the AO, beating only very out of form players. Whether it's pressure, or hiding an injury, or just loss of form which happens, I can't see why she is 1.45 against a decent Cirstea.

@Smiles Tennis She injured herself off-court I believe, and Cristian came out firing, like she did against Keys in the second round.
Sara Errani (+1.5 sets) to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo at 1.60 with Unibet
Errani leads the H2H 6-0 here, and SST hasn't been doing well so far in this season. She should still outlast Errani on paper, and I wouldn't fancy Errani in a potential decider, but the 1.60 for her to win a set looks good to me.

Happy Easter guys!
Sachia Vickery to beat Jaqueline Cristian at 2.20 with Bet365
No idea why Vickery is the underdog here, it's 50/50 at least for me. Vickery looked well above her average against Kessler, and the fact that she's already played a couple of matches here is relevant due to the unorthodox conditions. With Cristian not doing anything noteworthy recently, I'm happy to go against her at odds against.

Keys to beat Rybakina - 3.4 on Betfair
Keys leads the h2h 2-1. But more so I am going with Keys as Rybakina has struggled with her health recently. She's had two three setters already here and said after her last match how she has only practiced for a few days and is hurting all over. 
A couple of days rest might be enough but I can't see her suddenly getting back to full fitness and playing her best, and Keys is a formidable opponent. 

Keys to beat Rybakina - 3.4 on Betfair
Keys leads the h2h 2-1. But more so I am going with Keys as Rybakina has struggled with her health recently. She's had two three setters already here and said after her last match how she has only practiced for a few days and is hurting all over. 
A couple of days rest might be enough but I can't see her suddenly getting back to full fitness and playing her best, and Keys is a formidable opponent. 

Y.Putintseva/A.Kalinina - Over 21.5 games at 1.86 with Unibet
Both Putintseva and Kalinina can be tremendous at times, but both can also go missing for big chunks of their matches, and that's why I like the overs in this one.

Kasatkina to beat Cirstea - 1.9 with Betfair
Kasatkina leads the h2h 2-1 including a 6-2 6-0 win in Abu Dhabi last month. She was 1.7 for that match so I am a bit confused as to why she's 1.9 today. 
Dasha has already reached two finals this year and had a little drop off in form after those which is to be expected. Most players can't just keep going far week after week, they take a few weeks to recharge and take it easier before the next push. 
Cirstea hasn't been playing too badly, but a SF in Dubai was reached by beating Vondrousova, Vekic, Kenin and Kudermetova, none of which are in form and setting the tour alight. That could slightly hide her level and she's also based in Dubai I believe, or nearby anyway, so it was like a home tournament. 
She's further away here, against someone at a higher level who is recharged after some deep runs and I think 1.9 is worth a punt on Dasha today. 

Kasatkina to beat Cirstea - 1.9 with Betfair
Kasatkina leads the h2h 2-1 including a 6-2 6-0 win in Abu Dhabi last month. She was 1.7 for that match so I am a bit confused as to why she's 1.9 today. 
Dasha has already reached two finals this year and had a little drop off in form after those which is to be expected. Most players can't just keep going far week after week, they take a few weeks to recharge and take it easier before the next push. 
Cirstea hasn't been playing too badly, but a SF in Dubai was reached by beating Vondrousova, Vekic, Kenin and Kudermetova, none of which are in form and setting the tour alight. That could slightly hide her level and she's also based in Dubai I believe, or nearby anyway, so it was like a home tournament. 
She's further away here, against someone at a higher level who is recharged after some deep runs and I think 1.9 is worth a punt on Dasha today. 

Two favorites I do like on the woman's side of the draw are Osaka to beat Garcia and Pavlychenkova to beat Alexandrova.
If you get a chance go and look at the highlights from Indian wells in the match between Kostyk and Pavlychenkova. Very high standard match where Kostyk won. There is no better athlete than her on the woman's tour. Olympic athlete quality, with a tennis racquet in her hand. Pavlyochenkova actually played well ... just ran into a buzz saw.  I think she has too much game for Alexandrova here. She is a tough,  physically strong competitor.
Caroline Garcia is not playing well. Lost 1st round of 3 of her last 4 tournaments. Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Dubai and just got over the line at Indian Wells. She is currenlty ranked 27 and that ranking does not lie. Her results in the USA are really poor. For some reason she is not comfortable there. Last season she lost 1st match Miami, Citi Open, Canadian Open, Western & Southern and US Open.  She's getting worse and Osaka is getting better, finding her confidence and fitness.  Garcia beat Osaka a few months ago, but Osaka was early on the comebac path. Will take Osaka and Pavlychenkova as a double. I will also take Osaka as a single in a bigger bet.
 
I think that Paolini has a very good chance to beat Navarro. For Paolini, the rise in the rankings has been crazy. I think she is 13 or 14 ranked now, which is an amazing climb. Both players have very good form at the moment so it will be a tough match. But Paolini has beaten 6 players in a row where she was the underdog, winning the WTA1000 in Dubai. She is in the best form/moment of her (tennis) life. I am not sure the 2.23 on Paolini is worth it. For me the slightly better bet is the over 21.5 games at 1.8 as you could win that in a close match that has a breaker.
 

Thanks guys for all the comments! Hopefully the rain delay changes the momentum!
Yulia Putintseva to beat Greetje Minnen at 1.73 with William Hill
Putintseva has certainly improved a lot since last year, she's leaner and moving better, also less mental demons it seems to me. She even troubled Swiatek a little bit in Indian Wells, though it really wasn't close in the end. Minnen tends to have issues against good defenders, and Putintseva is a first-class one right now, and beating Samsonova in the previous round must've prepared her for this well.

E. Arango to beat L. Fernandez - 4.8 Betfair
Fernandez has lost 4 of her last 5 matches, only beating the horrendously bad Pera recently. She retired in San Diego, on her vlog she was having trouble with her shoulder in Dubai I think it was so that could be the issue with her recent form because shoulders are important in tennis and if it's hurting, you can't play your game. 
Arango on the other hand came through qualifying here with three underdog wins and can move well getting lots of balls back. 
If Leylah is mostly fit she should come through but I think 1.25 is a bit short so going for Arango at this price. 

E. Arango to beat L. Fernandez - 4.8 Betfair
Fernandez has lost 4 of her last 5 matches, only beating the horrendously bad Pera recently. She retired in San Diego, on her vlog she was having trouble with her shoulder in Dubai I think it was so that could be the issue with her recent form because shoulders are important in tennis and if it's hurting, you can't play your game. 
Arango on the other hand came through qualifying here with three underdog wins and can move well getting lots of balls back. 
If Leylah is mostly fit she should come through but I think 1.25 is a bit short so going for Arango at this price. 

This is also Sloane's home tournament so to speak, so she has the advantage there. Against Kerber it's more her style of play that causes Kerber problems. Kerber feeds off of pace and counter punches, redirecting fast balls to move her opponent around, but Sloane hits with more top spin and this prevents Kerber from generating pace off the ball as it comes to her. 
She's always had trouble against top spin hitters and Sloane made it 6-2 I think in the h2h for that reason. 

E. Arango to beat L. Fernandez - 4.8 Betfair
Fernandez has lost 4 of her last 5 matches, only beating the horrendously bad Pera recently. She retired in San Diego, on her vlog she was having trouble with her shoulder in Dubai I think it was so that could be the issue with her recent form because shoulders are important in tennis and if it's hurting, you can't play your game. 
Arango on the other hand came through qualifying here with three underdog wins and can move well getting lots of balls back. 
If Leylah is mostly fit she should come through but I think 1.25 is a bit short so going for Arango at this price. 

This is also Sloane's home tournament so to speak, so she has the advantage there. Against Kerber it's more her style of play that causes Kerber problems. Kerber feeds off of pace and counter punches, redirecting fast balls to move her opponent around, but Sloane hits with more top spin and this prevents Kerber from generating pace off the ball as it comes to her. 
She's always had trouble against top spin hitters and Sloane made it 6-2 I think in the h2h for that reason. 

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.
Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)
1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 
For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5
 
I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".
OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.
Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.
 

Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair
Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well. 

Sloane Stephens to beat Sorana Cirstea at 1.80 with William Hill
Stephens put in a surprisingly good performance against Kerber in the previous round, and she managed to beat Cirstea comfortably in Indian Wells, so I quite like the 1.80 that's on offer for her here. It's hard to like Cirstea in her first tournament matches as well.

Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair
Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well. 

Keys to beat Shnaider - 1.89 on Betfair
Shnaider has been in good form but this moving up a level. Playing top 20 players at a 1000 event will be a heap more pressure, and she might be feeling some fatigue from her recent matches. 
Keys, although hasn't been in great form, will like being back on the faster courts and this looks a good price to take. 

Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair
Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well. 

Keys to beat Shnaider - 1.89 on Betfair
Shnaider has been in good form but this moving up a level. Playing top 20 players at a 1000 event will be a heap more pressure, and she might be feeling some fatigue from her recent matches. 
Keys, although hasn't been in great form, will like being back on the faster courts and this looks a good price to take.