Smiles Tennis

C. Gauff to beat A. Sabalenka - 2.92 with Betfair
Gauff can win ugly if needed and Sabalenka has huge problems in Slam semi finals. Little bit of value for me here. 

C. Gauff to beat A. Sabalenka - 2.92 with Betfair
Gauff can win ugly if needed and Sabalenka has huge problems in Slam semi finals. Little bit of value for me here. 

C. Gauff to beat A. Sabalenka - 2.92 with Betfair
Gauff can win ugly if needed and Sabalenka has huge problems in Slam semi finals. Little bit of value for me here. 

D. Yastremska to beat V. Azarenka - 3.60 with Betfair

Back Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? - No at 1.82 with Pinnacle
I'm going to go against most of the forum here, but I'm just not that convinced by Novak. He struggled big time ahead of the Australian Open, and, before that Mannarino beatdown, he had some issues as well. It's going to get tougher from now on, and there are some solid candidates in Sinner, Alcaraz, and co. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, to see him lose against Fritz in the very next round.

D. Yastremska to beat V. Azarenka - 3.60 with Betfair

She'll be a comfortable top 20 player and win a few trophies along the way, probably a slam at some point as she's so young and is decent with so much time on her side. 

D. Yastremska to beat V. Azarenka - 3.60 with Betfair

D. Yastremska to beat V. Azarenka - 3.60 with Betfair

She'll be a comfortable top 20 player and win a few trophies along the way, probably a slam at some point as she's so young and is decent with so much time on her side. 

Krejcikova to beat Andreeva - 2.75 Bet365
The odds shouldn't have flipped this much since their last meeting a few months ago. 

I think Djokovic is vulnerable. Realistically he has played 2 rank outsiders. Prizmic is ranked around 175 and Popyrin is 48. The Djoko of old would just win both these matches 3-0. I think age has caught up with him a little, and he has an extra 2 sets in his legs that he didn't need. For me Etcheverry is much better than both Popyrin and Prizmic. He has won both his Aussie Open matches in straight sets.  
I went to work in Argentina in the early 2000's and was amazed at how many clay court facilities there were (in Buenos Aires). Lot's of kids hitting balls, facilites for free, coaches provided. As a kid you could play hours a day for no cost. It's a system that produces very solid, strong  players. Growing up and playing on clay does that. High levels of fitness, and solid ground strokes (as the ball bounces slower).
For me Djoko is not the greatest player ever, but he is the greatest 'recoverer'. He understands his body, and how to recover properly to 100%. Most of his opponents don't.  For me there is no doubt that this recovery is slower now, at his more advanced age. It is less of  a factor. A slightly fatigued Djoko at age 36 vs a rock solid 24 year old in the prime of his life... I think this goes to the wire and Etcheverry is worth a punt at 11-1. The handicap +7.5 also looks OK at 1.83
I was super impressed with Arthur Cazaux against Rune. This kid can play. Strong and tall, with a cannon for a serve. Moves very well and has a solid temprament. Rune is tricky, but he swatted him aside. It is a top win against a top 10 opponent. Not sure why he is the underdog against Griekspoor on Sat but I think he wins here.
I watched the Pegula v Burel match, and it was amazing how Burel just wiped her out. Pegula got so frustrated and her body language and mind just crumbled. And it is no fluke. Burel was world junior #1, so she has game, very good technique and the ability to problem solve on court. The only thing that was slighly lacking was physical strength, which will grow as she gets older. I think she wins quite easily against Dodin in the all French affair.
Will continue to back Navarro, and I think she wins against Yastremska. Just on such a winning streak, against an inconsistent opponent. Burel and Navarro as a double for me. 
 

Quick picks
Rus to beat Kalinskaya 3.25 with Betfair
Maria to beat Paolini - 3.20 Bet365 /  Unibet

Quick picks
Rus to beat Kalinskaya 3.25 with Betfair
Maria to beat Paolini - 3.20 Bet365 /  Unibet

Ajla Tomljanovic (+6) to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.51 with Pinnacle
I'm a bit low on confidence right now, but I like this alternative line. Tomljanovic has always covered this line against Ostapenko, and the Australian will have the full house on her side in this meeting as well. She's been in a fine enough nick so far in 2024 and, while I don't think it will be enough to get a win against Ostapenko, I don't really see a blowout here.

T. Paul - J.Draper @2.19 Marathonbet 👎
Draper has been convinced (5-1) on January. He did beat easily Paul a week ago. IMO Draper is much more versatile player and should be a favourite! 
 

Tough pickings this Aussie Open. Bookmakers are not giving much away. Crazy low odds all over the place.
I would rather be taking a few outsiders as singles than betting a very low piced fav.
 
I do like Mertens for the straight win against Kostyuk. Kostyuk playing better, but still losing against the players she is expected to lose against.
It's like her game is good, but she can't get to the next level. For me any woman who is playing 'atypical tennis' needs attention. That is solid 1st serve and good 1st strike tennis, and Mertens falls into this group. 
 
I'm not feeling to much strength for Haddad-Maia. Played 3 warm up games and has been properly beaten twice. I don't think her confidence is soaring.
Date Winner   Odds Loser   Odds   Score 2024-01-15 Haddad Maia B.   1.25  Fruhvirtova L.   4.03 6-2 3-6 6-2 2024-01-08 Pavlyuchenkova A.   2.21  Haddad Maia B.   1.66 6-3 6-4 2023-12-30 Swiatek I.   1.12  Haddad Maia B.   6.04 6-2 6-2 Her opponent is probably the best junior player in the world. Born in 2007 (lol), Alina Korneeva could cause a shock here. She qualified and is on a 4 match winning streak, beating Sorribes Tormo in the previous round (3 sets coming from a set down against a road runner). So she has the physicality. Korneeva is like Juncheng Shang - top ITF junior in the world, winning junior Grand Slam at French and Australia.
 
I'm not too impressed with Jabeur. Looks slightly undercooked to me and is up against an opponent (Mira Andreeva) who is in great form. She had a seriously good Brisbane international. I quite like the 6-1 and 6-2 sets. For me it indicates very good ground strokes, and somebody who is getting on top of opponents, and then putting them away. For me Andreeva with the straight win.
Date    Winner   Odds    Loser Odds Score 2024-01-15   Andreeva M.   1.17   Pera B. 5.11 7-5 6-2 2024-01-12   Andreeva M.   1.56   Collins D. 2.31 7-6 6-1 2024-01-05   Noskova L.   3.96   Andreeva M. 1.25 7-5 6-3 2024-01-04   Andreeva M.   1.08     Rodionova A. 8.01 6-1 6-1 2024-01-03   Andreeva M.   1.81   Samsonova L. 1.99 6-2 6-1 2023-12-31   Andreeva M.   1.22   Shnaider D. 4.26 6-2 6-3  
For a low odds 2 legged fav I like Emma Navarro, who is on a serious run of form. Only around 4 to 10 but it looks like 1 way traffic to me against Cocciaretto. My 2nd leg would be Shelton (who had a comfortable 1st round) over O'Connell who had to win in 5, winning the last 2 sets. Not sure O'Connell will have recovered, as a tough 5 setter is a leg killer so early in a tournament.
Date Winner Odds Loser Odds Score 2024-01-13   Navarro E.   2.09 Mertens E. 1.74 6-1 4-6 7-5 2024-01-12   Navarro E.   1.36 Yuan Y. 3.17 6-4 6-3 2024-01-11   Navarro E.   1.26 Tomova V. 3.80 4-6 6-3 6-2 2024-01-10   Navarro E.   1.48 Frech M. 2.66 6-3 6-3 2024-01-09   Navarro E.   1.68 Burel C. 2.18 4-6 6-3 6-3 2024-01-06   Gauff C.   1.10 Navarro E. 7.05 6-3 6-1 2024-01-05   Navarro E.   1.78 Martic P. 2.03 6-4 6-3 2024-01-03   Navarro E.   1.22 Avanesyan E. 4.21 6-1 6-2 2024-01-01   Navarro E.   1.40 Fruhvirtova L. 2.97 2-6 6-4 6-2 When you see a player who is beating players, who themselves are winning matches, it is a clear show of strength.  
Good luck.
 

For clarity, my initial post was never about stepping on any admin toes; rather it was out of frustration at some of the posts I was seeing - and still do see from time to time. Like @Smiles Tennis I post much less than I used to because it's just not worth the potential hassle.

I very much agree with Cocciaretto there @Smiles Tennis, I just hope the Putintseva debacle didn't leave a scar on her haha!

I am going for:
Cocciaretto to beat Sun - 1.81 with Pinnacle 
Sun plays lower level tennis and shouldn't be this low against a top 70 player in a grand slam. In 13 matches against the current top 100 going back to May 2022 she's won 2. Against Boulter indoors and against a very out of form Blinkova in September. 
Gadecki to beat Stephens - 2.82 with Pinnacle
Gadecki had a tight first set against Rybakina before going three sets with Qinwen, she's at home and will have the crowd behind her against someone who only turns up half the time. Stephens should be favourite but 1.53 is too short for me. 
Minnen to beat Tauson - 3.09 with Pinnacle
Tauson has only one victory against someone in the top 150 in her last 12 matches. Her last 5 defeats have come against players ranked 123, 235, 118, 371 and 526. She also hates the heat and her fitness takes a back seat when it's hot. I don't see how she's 1.41. 
Yuan to beat Boulter - 2.44 with Pinnacle
Yuan has played much more on hardcourt than Boulter. Boulter lost in R1 last week while Yuan reached the SF in Hobart beating Putintseva, Sloane, Xinyu and Podoroska on the way. Her last two defeats were against Navarro and Martic who are much better than Boulter. Last year she finished reaching 4 finals in a row (some at lower level) so should be confident. 
Boulter should have the edge but not by this much. 

😮I thought this was a new post after yesterdays action. But no. Still, worthy of a bump and 100% agree with it, as I was on the receiving end of it in the past and don't post as much now. 

I am going for:
Cocciaretto to beat Sun - 1.81 with Pinnacle 
Sun plays lower level tennis and shouldn't be this low against a top 70 player in a grand slam. In 13 matches against the current top 100 going back to May 2022 she's won 2. Against Boulter indoors and against a very out of form Blinkova in September. 
Gadecki to beat Stephens - 2.82 with Pinnacle
Gadecki had a tight first set against Rybakina before going three sets with Qinwen, she's at home and will have the crowd behind her against someone who only turns up half the time. Stephens should be favourite but 1.53 is too short for me. 
Minnen to beat Tauson - 3.09 with Pinnacle
Tauson has only one victory against someone in the top 150 in her last 12 matches. Her last 5 defeats have come against players ranked 123, 235, 118, 371 and 526. She also hates the heat and her fitness takes a back seat when it's hot. I don't see how she's 1.41. 
Yuan to beat Boulter - 2.44 with Pinnacle
Yuan has played much more on hardcourt than Boulter. Boulter lost in R1 last week while Yuan reached the SF in Hobart beating Putintseva, Sloane, Xinyu and Podoroska on the way. Her last two defeats were against Navarro and Martic who are much better than Boulter. Last year she finished reaching 4 finals in a row (some at lower level) so should be confident. 
Boulter should have the edge but not by this much. 

I am going for:
Cocciaretto to beat Sun - 1.81 with Pinnacle 
Sun plays lower level tennis and shouldn't be this low against a top 70 player in a grand slam. In 13 matches against the current top 100 going back to May 2022 she's won 2. Against Boulter indoors and against a very out of form Blinkova in September. 
Gadecki to beat Stephens - 2.82 with Pinnacle
Gadecki had a tight first set against Rybakina before going three sets with Qinwen, she's at home and will have the crowd behind her against someone who only turns up half the time. Stephens should be favourite but 1.53 is too short for me. 
Minnen to beat Tauson - 3.09 with Pinnacle
Tauson has only one victory against someone in the top 150 in her last 12 matches. Her last 5 defeats have come against players ranked 123, 235, 118, 371 and 526. She also hates the heat and her fitness takes a back seat when it's hot. I don't see how she's 1.41. 
Yuan to beat Boulter - 2.44 with Pinnacle
Yuan has played much more on hardcourt than Boulter. Boulter lost in R1 last week while Yuan reached the SF in Hobart beating Putintseva, Sloane, Xinyu and Podoroska on the way. Her last two defeats were against Navarro and Martic who are much better than Boulter. Last year she finished reaching 4 finals in a row (some at lower level) so should be confident. 
Boulter should have the edge but not by this much. 

😮I thought this was a new post after yesterdays action. But no. Still, worthy of a bump and 100% agree with it, as I was on the receiving end of it in the past and don't post as much now. 

I am going for:
Cocciaretto to beat Sun - 1.81 with Pinnacle 
Sun plays lower level tennis and shouldn't be this low against a top 70 player in a grand slam. In 13 matches against the current top 100 going back to May 2022 she's won 2. Against Boulter indoors and against a very out of form Blinkova in September. 
Gadecki to beat Stephens - 2.82 with Pinnacle
Gadecki had a tight first set against Rybakina before going three sets with Qinwen, she's at home and will have the crowd behind her against someone who only turns up half the time. Stephens should be favourite but 1.53 is too short for me. 
Minnen to beat Tauson - 3.09 with Pinnacle
Tauson has only one victory against someone in the top 150 in her last 12 matches. Her last 5 defeats have come against players ranked 123, 235, 118, 371 and 526. She also hates the heat and her fitness takes a back seat when it's hot. I don't see how she's 1.41. 
Yuan to beat Boulter - 2.44 with Pinnacle
Yuan has played much more on hardcourt than Boulter. Boulter lost in R1 last week while Yuan reached the SF in Hobart beating Putintseva, Sloane, Xinyu and Podoroska on the way. Her last two defeats were against Navarro and Martic who are much better than Boulter. Last year she finished reaching 4 finals in a row (some at lower level) so should be confident. 
Boulter should have the edge but not by this much.