aphro

Value radar: Berrettini to beat Kohlschreiber at 2.38 with Pinnacle

Marton Fucsovics to beat Marco Cecchinato at 2.55 with betsson
I think we might see Marton winning his third match in Munich. He reached the Munich quarters last season too and he beat Marco on the way in straight sets.

Some bets i like tomorrow & i have taken
Ostrava Challenger
David Poljak @4.70 188bet 4/10
I probably wouldn't bet Poljak in any other case but here i have to try it at least. He's from Ostrava so this is basically his Grand Slam final each year, playing in his home town in front of his fans and friends. Even better to bet on him against a guy like Vavassori who is - to be honest - one of the worst players i have seen playing on that level regulary as he's playing Challengers most of the time. He has a big serve, i give him that, but from the baseline he's pretty much an error machine with weak consistency. I think if Poljak has solid day he can make it close.
Seoul Challenger
Y.-S. Kim/H.-C. Lim @9.50 Betfair 2/10
Just a try. Kim/Lim had few solid results in 2018 on Challenger level: 46 63 2-10 vs. Hsieh/Rungkat; 67 36 vs. Wu/Zhang; 46 46 vs. Roelofse/Smith. Those teams are pretty solid Challenger level guys. Furthermore we have two Korean teams here so might be a bit less competitive atmosphere, more friendly. Kim/Lim +30 matches together, Chung/Lee on the other side have played one match together in the past and both are not well known for taking doubles too seriously in the past (both not ranked inside Top 400).
Savannah Challenger
Cannon Kingsley @3.28 Pinnacle 4/10
I don't rate Johannes Haerteis. I know him very well as i followed his career in detail, especially at younger age and i think he reached his maximum already. Don't think he can go further on Challenger level. This is a good matchup for Kingsley who is one of the better prospects in the US. He's a Top 10 Junior right now and showed some decent stuff on the higher level recently, winning sets vs solid clay court player Velotti and Ritschard + had close match with Schnur in New York earlier this year. I would make this a pick em match.

Value radar:
Berrettini to beat Krajinovic at 2.15 with PInnacle

Giulio Zeppieri (+1.5 sets) to beat Javier Cosano Barranco at 1.70 with Sbobet
Giulio Zeppieri couldn't get the job done against Kokkinakis last time out, but he certainly proved that he can play in that match and I think that he'll have a decent chance of getting something against Barranco on Tuesday. The Spaniard is a relatively average player, a bit more experienced than Zeppieri obviously, but he's coming into this on the back of a long week in which he lost in Futures finals, so he might be a bit tired. I wouldn't play this outside Italy, but, with all the different situational factors working in Zeppieri's favor here, I am going to have a bite. I'm also somewhat interested in Viola.

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

Great call on zeppieri @opole @CzechPunter 

Well, i think i need to explain, what value radar is. This is analytical tool made by me, i've took tennis matches from last 3 years and applied some math and AI. So i built a model that has 20-23% ROI, during the whole 3 years period. But there are several significant drawdowns for approximate 20% and i don't want anybody to lose 20 bets in a row.
I thought that applying expert's knowledge would improve this model, that's why only ask for experts opinion, after 20 opinions i would share the result of combined machine and expert's analysis.
 
For today i see value on Lajovic Dusan and South_African_Punter has the same opinion, hope this works.

My value radar supposed it

Thank you for such a great analysis

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10
I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC last two weeks hitting with a lot of good training partners and apparently he looked pretty good. My contact in MC told me he's looking strong and pumped and i think he can deal with a guy like Berrettini on clay who is - to be fair - a really good prospect who can make it to the Top 20/30 soon. Berrettini had good tournament in Phoenix and Sofia but overall more an average year so far with a lot of early losses. 

Opole strikes again with Ocleppo today. If somebody doesn't cage him up .. He's going to tear down the betting walls, and we'll be back to playing chinese checkers for coins on the street. 

Monte Carlo qualification
Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10
Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface. Don't see him winning many matches next few weeks. Might cash out some bigger tournaments though and looking forward to grass court. I doubt you can make him a favorite right now vs any decent claycourt player out there. Ocleppo looking solid enough to take advantage of Zverevs bad form. Ocleppo once was a good prospect, beat guys like Auger-Aliassime or Yibing Wu as a junior for example.

ouahab won 62 60
walk in the park for the legend. i took some more of ouahab this morning, no idea why some books had him aroiund 2.7....strange one, ouahab dominated from the first point as expected.

Hello, everyone!
Does anybody have thoughts on Petra Martic? Looks like there's value in her odds