Tennis Tips - April 1 - April 7

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Kirsten Flipkens to beat Olga Danilovic at 2.01 with Pinnacle

I'm not quite sure what makes Danilovic the favourite here, as I wouldn't be surprised to see Flipkens just outplay her in what's going to be a clash of very different styles. Danilovic is often rather impatient and that should play right into Flipkens' hands. Yes, Danilovic can blow her off the court if she manages to be accurate throughout, but I don't see that happening very often.

Viktor Troicki to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 1.37 with Pinnacle

I've been tracking Troicki's recent woes in interest, but they haven't been so bad that he should be losing to someone as poor as Rinderknech.

[Grass Cash]

Czech Punter .. Do you think there is some value on Friedsam.. Its Zidansek first match on clay this year, and also - she's not in good form right now .. I think Friedsam did well in Miami taking a set off Tomljanovic .. And anybody else - please weigh in on this .. thanks u gang stars 

[Grass Cash]

Its also true that Lisicki has some respectable results at this tournament... I don't believe it is farfetched to beat Kenin who has lost first round here last two years ..

I see many underdog possibilities on WTA tour tomorrow including: Friedsam, Lisicki, Heather Watson, Khromachaeva, Bogdan, Shelby Rogers, Vickery, Zarazua, Victoria Rodriguez. 

There is too many to understand what is the smart bet for me unfortunately. 

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunter @darko08 @ all other punters here which I cannot name 100 people right now. 

It would be great if someone can list the rankings of the 10 players that I listed as possible underdogs.. I have done this with Darko's picks last month.  It is also worth noting that Stollar had some wins in this tournament last year, and I did not list her as a candidate.. You are welcome to include her or leave out of the 10 player rankings... She's not my favorite because she has been out of form, and I believe there may have been some injuries last year. 

[CzechPunter]

I don't like Khromacheva, Rodriguez, Zarazua, and Rogers at all (Rogers is just a complete enigma after a year of not playing). From the rest - 1)Friedsam 2)Bogdan 3)Lisicki 4)Vickery 5)Watson.

[Grass Cash]

Ty Czech .. I will keep in mind .. the reason behind Zarazua is a fade of Diyas who is carrying some injury again.. Also Zarazua has just knocked off errani and stollar, and played bouzkova tough on hard court in mexico previous tournament.  Seems very live to me unless she is tired. 

I am starting footage of Zarazua - Stollar match in Guadalajara .. Should give me a very good idea of what she is capable of. 

Also would be nice to get another punter rankings on the 10 players also. So we can compare them vs Czech, and find some info. 

I have concluded that Zarazua looks serviceable, and healthy.. However, Stollar is making alot of bad errors, and not playing very well. So this could the reason for her win, but she has also played alot of other close matches recently against notable players. Still reviewing if Rodriguez has better value out of the mexico players.. I felt one of them might win. 

Edited March 31, 2019 by money44

[Torque]

Personally I'd leave Friedsam - yes she took a set from Tomljanovic but it's far too early to draw conclusions about her game after such a long time out. I like Zarazua - as you say she's had some decent results this season and she's at home. Other than that I don't have any other opinions or leans.

Edited March 31, 2019 by Torque

[Torque]

Actually one more - Watson might be able to take a set in her match as Muguruza seems to be all over the place at the moment. I couldn't back the Brit to win as she's on a horrible losing streak which will probably put me off even taking her on a plus, but if I had to get involved a set plus would be my play but not a games plus or overs as she could easily take a set and lose two others really easily.

Edited March 31, 2019 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Well, if Diyas is supposed to be injured, then sure.

[Grass Cash]

She retired from Guadalajara, and then got beat again in straight sets at miami 

[Grass Cash]

I don't like the odds with Zarazua, and I think Diyas shots will be too aggressive for her pushing style to win from the baseline but who knows.. just decided to stay away from it. 

* footnote - OK , so i posted the 5 matches below , and did a little edit here now .. Interesting thing about the matches I posted is.. 

If any one of the matches posted wins .. they will cover the entire sheet minus 1 point loss.. which is not a bad loss with 1/5 result is likely atleast one player to win. 

Edited April 1, 2019 by money44

[Torque]

No reason to play it if you don't like it - plenty of other matches to look at in the next few days.

[Torque]

Sometimes the best bet is no bet.

[Grass Cash]

Right torque .. I like some of the matches tho .. So i'm going to list the final bets I have come to terms with.. I'll need to win 2 out of the 5 matches for a solid profit. 

Pinnacle lines: 

Sabine Lisicki to beat Kenin @ 5.11

Giuliana Olmos to beat Nao Hibino @ 3.84

Friedsam to beat Zidansek @ 3.79

Victoria Rodriguez to beat Gasparyan @ 6.04

Heather Watson to beat Muguruza @ 6.4 

(I have decided that Muguruza will lose to any player in the top 200 on some random day.. She has serious problems of technique, and coaching issues.  First major problem is that she uses the wrong racquet for her ability level but there is some other concerns also.  Watson seems to be steadily improving, and has also won this tournament in 2016.. I actually bet her to win in 2016 @ 25/1 odds pre tournament, but since then she has had alot of trouble. She could regain her form here atleast for one match against Garbine who is also struggling. )

[Grass Cash]

WTA Monterrey: Pinnacle

Parlay Bogdan/Vickery @ 9.13 odds to beat singles opponents Voegele and Riske. 

[Torque]

@money44 I'd forgotton Watson won the title here a few years ago - that's another thing in her favour so maybe a win bet isn't such a bad idea.

[CzechPunter]

Alright, not betting on Troicki anymore. Flipkens without breaking sweat though.

[CzechPunter]

Renata Zarazua (+1.5 sets) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.90 with Pinnacle

Jumping on the Zarazua bet here. Diyas really has been nothing special lately and the home conditions should allow Zarazua to stay competitive for at least a while.

[Marek_Hamsik]

Brkic Tomislav to beat Ferreira Silva Frederico @2,44 ifortuna.sk

the value is on Brkic imo, would see this match on even odds normally. 

i know its the first clay match for brkic, but ferreira played just the 1.st quali.round. ferreira played zhurbin, won a set in a tie break. 

all in all when last season is concerned brkic favours clay more than ferreira. ferreira did win 2 futures last year, but brkic claimed a few nice wins on challengers in Roma, Mestre, Como, Perugie ,San Benedetta, Ostrava a Padova or Sevilla ( players who lost Melzer, Arguello, Nagal, Hoang, Kolár, Cuevas, Bellucci, Gutierrez or Trungelliti )

to sum up, im betting on the stats more from the past, but the quote on brkic caught my interest and wanted to share with you guys.  

GL.

 

[Marek_Hamsik]

Peniston Ryan to beat  Van De Zandschulp Botic @2,16 ifortuna.sk

ryan is my favorite in this match, based on a few points. 

Van den did win a itf in Germany and a final afterwards as well, but his last appearance was in Israel outdoors and now he has to play in Bolton indoors. he also didnt manage to get more than 5 gems against sisljing in the final or just 4 against Shane and his last loss was as mentioned in Israel. 

Mr. Peniston did reach a semifinal in Barnstaple and a quarterfinal in Glasgow, where he did beat players like Glasspool, Ritschard and Grenier. 

medium stake on RP @2,16 odds. 

GL

[CzechPunter]

Welcome back @Marek_Hamsik!

[Marek_Hamsik]

2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Welcome back @Marek_Hamsik!

Thank you  I do enjoy your posts @CzechPunter 

[Marek_Hamsik]

2 hours ago, Marek_Hamsik said:

Brkic Tomislav to beat Ferreira Silva Frederico @2,44 ifortuna.sk

the value is on Brkic imo, would see this match on even odds normally. 

i know its the first clay match for brkic, but ferreira played just the 1.st quali.round. ferreira played zhurbin, won a set in a tie break. 

all in all when last season is concerned brkic favours clay more than ferreira. ferreira did win 2 futures last year, but brkic claimed a few nice wins on challengers in Roma, Mestre, Como, Perugie ,San Benedetta, Ostrava a Padova or Sevilla ( players who lost Melzer, Arguello, Nagal, Hoang, Kolár, Cuevas, Bellucci, Gutierrez or Trungelliti )

to sum up, im betting on the stats more from the past, but the quote on brkic caught my interest and wanted to share with you guys.  

GL.

 

well... brkic is awful... played fast in game under 7,5 g in 1st set for 2,4 medium stakes... still not happy . sorry folks...lets see the second set. 

[four-leaf]

12 minutes ago, Marek_Hamsik said:

well... brkic is awful... played fast in game under 7,5 g in 1st set for 2,4 medium stakes... still not happy . sorry folks...lets see the second set. 

Well Tomislav seems to be going out without mutch effort from him. Better luck next time but Tomislav is not a player I would ever trust in winning a match. He's like Martin Cuevas.

[four-leaf]

Jurij Rodionov to beat Orlando Luz at 1.57 with Unibet

I know the odds on Jurij isn't anything special and I usually don't bet on the lower odds but I feel like Jurij should win this matchup more often than not. Orlando isn't good and lacks a lot of potential to become a top 200 player or better but Jurij does have that potential and 1.57 looks like a gift in this case. Fair price on Jurij would 1.36 or lower.

[Marek_Hamsik]

3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Well Tomislav seems to be going out without mutch effort from him. Better luck next time but Tomislav is not a player I would ever trust in winning a match. He's like Martin Cuevas.

jope. i do agree. hes going into my black list... still did bet under 8,5 in 2nd for 1,9 medium,... 

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, Marek_Hamsik said:

jope. i do agree. hes going into my black list... still did bet under 8,5 in 2nd for 1,9 medium,... 

You don't have to put him on any blacklist because he loses a match. He's a nice player to bet against for example that he loses in straight sets. Like two years ago I got 2.10 on Elias Ymer to beat Tomislav in straight sets. The guy is like a hopeless case if you bet that he's gonna win a match on challenger level. He's just an average futures player without mutch potential to evolve any further. He goes into your blacklist you say but I hope it doesn't mean you will not bet against him either since like I said he's a nice player to predict that he loses in straight sets since you often get decent odds on that to happen.

[four-leaf]

13 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Jurij Rodionov to beat Orlando Luz at 1.57 with Unibet

I know the odds on Jurij isn't anything special and I usually don't bet on the lower odds but I feel like Jurij should win this matchup more often than not. Orlando isn't good and lacks a lot of potential to become a top 200 player or better but Jurij does have that potential and 1.57 looks like a gift in this case. Fair price on Jurij would 1.36 or lower.

I forgot to say that Orlando since the beginning of the season he has fallen 99 ranking spots down to 469 and Jurij has just reached his career high ranking 191 so he's already a top 200 player and should really be winning this match. Orlando doesn't beat players ranked in the top 200 all to often but he did beat Elias Ymer when he was ranked 241 in 2017 in qualifying for a clay challenger. He has acctually beaten only one top 200 player since 2013 when he turned pro if you can call him a pro. He beat Guido Andreozzi in 3 sets when Guido was ranked 200 and that's his biggest win in his career so he's only beaten one player ranked higher than 201 since his career began so I really don't get it why we get 1.57 on Jurij Rodionov to win.

[four-leaf]

Tommy Robredo to beat Pedro Sousa at 2.20 with Unibet

I think Tommy is worth a stake here. Pedro is on a big losing run. He is not a player of top 100 quality now and has never been but he's still ranked 104 and it looks like he could start establishing himself in the top 100 but I question his ability to keep that level up for more than 6 months which would be required. Tommy did a really good match in first round when he stood for a near flawless effort when beating Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets. That Tommy can still be seen from time to time nowadays but the truth is that he's lost all his ability to keep that level up for more than one tournament but that level should not be gone over the night. So I think he's gonna beat Pedro today if he will play like he did when he beat Tallon Griekspoor yesterday. I'm counting on the bad streak to continue for Pedro.