Jump to content

Nigwilliam

New Members
  • Posts

    2,229
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Newbury 4.50
    CAPTAIN HADDOCK 14/1
    £10 EW SKY 6 places SP
  2. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to The Equaliser in Racing chat - Friday 21st Oct   
    2.10 Chelt Straw Fan Jack 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.7)
    2.35 Nb Miss Down Under 13/2 (1 pt win at 8.0)
    3.10 Nb Beny Nahar 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.1)
    1 x 0.5 win Trixie = 2.00 poss return 143.75
    Singles and savers
    3.10 Nb Juan Bermudez 0.60 win at 15/2
    Total stakes so far = 5.60
    ------------------------------------------------------
    RESULTS UPDATE
    Nothing much to report.  Straw Fan Jack's win meant that I made a miniscule profit of 0.01.  Very interesting that I went against the favourite here but when I tried the same thing with Miss Down Under the favourite Misty Dancer sluiced up.  I guess I will have to work on when to oppose the favourite and when to go with it. My MTD is now -52.11 and YTD is -226.09
    Loads of class racing later, the problem is which races to look at.
  3. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Tuesday 18th October   
    P.s I’m really focused on racing at the moment. Had a few personal issues this year with wife and the demon drink which has caused me and my family no end of bother , which lead me to be disinterested in racing a bit . Just getting things sorted in time for jump season and I’m enjoying it again . Revised my way of rating the other week and made some little changes. I’m happy at moment .
  4. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Won. SP 33/1.
    Profit £396.
    Monthly profit £337.
  5. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to LeMale in Quick System   
    Sorry to hear about that Ralphie, hope you are ok and are recovering well. ?
  6. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to alexcaruso808 in Racing Chat - Monday 17th October.   
    Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Windsor 13:20 Richard P Smith 3.5 / win     15:00 Wisper 3.7 / win             Pontefract 13:30 Coverdale 6.8 / win   All prices Smarkets
    David says "good luck!"
     

  7. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to Sporting Sam in Racing Chat - Sunday 16th October   

    0905 am
    SPEEDY FAY FAY
    Win
    Is the mount of silvestre De Sousa
    Gone to new yard and down to a winning mark given he won off 54 Jan 21.
    SWEET ENCOUNTER
    Win
    Won well here on debut gets stall 14 so will have to come from off the pace rather than lead this time. But won easily on debut.
  8. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to Budgie 65 in American horse racing system   
    RI thistledown knights key nap 
    R2 star entertainer 
    R7 lionixtic
     
     
     
  9. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to kensland in Racing Chat - Wednesday 12th October.   
    Nottingham. 
    Ralph Becketts 2 year old. 
    Single. 
    1.10. Artistic Star.      22/1... 1st 
    Good luck all. 
  10. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Tuesday 11th October.   
    I backed it at 4/11 and the SP was 2/13 so excellent value with an edge of 18%.
    People don't get excited when a 13/2 shot wins so why the shock when a 2/13 shot loses ?
  11. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to Budgie 65 in American horse racing system   
    150 selections 93 winners 65points profit 63 % strike rate 
    R2 Santa Anita Mercy Mercy 7/2 won
    claimed then won for new yard looking comfortable winning. Hopefully the is more improvement to come
    3)Race 4 Off Good Report 5/2 lost
    Won pulling clear last time beating a few of these. Has a good chance of following up
    2)R5 See Through It 11/10 NB 11/10 won
    Won pulling clear last time big chance
    R7 Square cat 9/4
    closing fast last time hopefully is more wise this time
    4)R9 Thorn house 6/5 2nd
    pulled clear last time looks good enough to follow up
    1)R10 Reincarnate nap 5/6 2ndjennings
    just got beat last time In a good time
    Bob Baffert on a Monday night is a tip in itself 
     
     
  12. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to Budgie 65 in American horse racing system   
    R3 Thistledown Blushing Bettie 10/11 nap pulled clear beating most of these last time. Looks to have a good chance of following up won
    R4 Thistledown Scarrazano 11/8 came 3rd last time by 1/2 length,got bumped on corner should go close won
     
  13. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to calva decoy in USA Racing   
    Saturday afternoon is always football first but Saturday night sees no fewer than 26 stakes & allowance races in US & Canada , good stuff ?
    848 Belmont at the Big A - SHIPSATIONAL 5/4 ?
    937 Gulfsteam - LITTLE BELITA 11/2 eway 4 th ?
    1014 Keeneland - LOGGINS 3/1 2nd 
    1045 Keeneland - CASA CREED 13/2 eway 4 th 
    1106 Santa Anita - NEIGE BLANCHE 4/1 ? drifted out to 12's .
    prices bet365 & b.o.g.
    bad day in the Cesarewitch , here in the US & day out at the football , but hey ho , Breeders Cup in a month , keep powder dry until then it is October after all , as bad as April .
  14. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to The Brigadier in Racing chat-saturday 8th Oct   
    Newmarket 1.50 The days racing at Newmarket kicks of with the Group 3 10F Zetalnd Stakes for two year olds. My initial thoughts were that I wanted to take on the short favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick but the more I delved into the race nothing really appealed against him. The favourite should relish the step up from a mile to ten furlongs and looked a top performer when an easy winner at Sandown and Salisbury (from subsequent winner Stormbuster) in the Summer. He went off a well backed 2/7 shot in the Royal Lodge last time when flopping in coming home only 3rd of the 4 runners beaten half a length. But for that defeat he would be an odds on chance here so if we can forgive him that effort then anything above evens is probably worth taking. The closest to the favourite on ratings is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Dear My Friend who ran his best race to date last time when third in a listed contest in France. Maiden winners Galactic Jack, Tenerife Sunshine (also trained by the Johnstones) and Blanchland will all need to step up so let’s go with the favourite but to smallish stakes as he did bomb out last time.   FLYING HONOURS 2 points win @ 5/4 BetVictor   York 2.05 Nine assemble for the listed Rockingham Stakes run over 6F of the Knavesmire. William Haggas’s Alpha Capture appeared to improve for cheek pieces when just touched off on the line by Cold Case in a in sales race at Doncaster 30 days ago and with Tom Marquand riding looks likely to go close. Cold Case has gone on to win the big Redcar sales contest from Holguin who was back in third in the Doncaster race and the 4th that day Galeron has gone over to The Curragh and plundered the Goffs Million so the form has a very solid look about it and he’ll be hard to beat. His main danger appears to Roger Varian’s Bolt Action who followed up a credible runner up spot in a listed contest at Ayr to beat the well thought of Wallop at Salisbury a fortnight later. He’s officially rated the same as Alpha Capture and can make him fight all the way. Richard Fahey saddles Rousing Encore who was runner up to the useful Sakheer last time but there was only one winner that day and if there is a horse who could step forward massively for his debut run then surely it’s Johnny Murtagh’s Bay Of Plenty who was very green when winning on his debut at Naas 23 days ago and it must be significant that Murtagh brings him over from his County Kildare base.   ALPHA CAPTURE 2 points win @ 15/8 Coral BAY OF PLENTY 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 123   Newmarket 2.25 Another two year old contest, this time the Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over a mile. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Knott let us down last time and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here. The excuse for the lack lustre effort was the soft ground so he can be given another chance but I prefer Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy who can give Dewhurst favourite Nostrum a boost ahead of his race later on the card. He went down by a length and a quarter to Sir Michael Stoute’s smart juvenile over seven furlongs here a fortnight ago with the strongly fancied Victory Dance 3L away in third. That was a strong piece of form and the extra furlong should suit him. Epictetus is a very interesting runner who seemingly won unfancied in a maiden at the July course on his debut 92 days ago. That form has worked out well with four winners coming out of the race and he could easily be a player here but I’m sticking with the best form line of Holloway Boy.   HOLLOWAY BAY 2 points win @ 16/5 Paddy Power   York 2.40 A disappointing turnout for the time of the year for this 1m 2 1/2F class 2 handicap with just six entered including one (What’s The Story ) who also has an entry on Friday. Stay Well looks held by rival Marching Army and top weight Algiers has plenty on here on the back of a long absence for The Crisford’s. Saga has become a disappointing horse though does try a new trip today and this may be fought out by Saeed Bin Suroor’s Marching Army who’s chasing a hat trick of wins and William Haggas’s Protagonist who was badly drawn last time out in the Cambridgeshire. It’s hard to split the pair with slight preference for the latter who ended up finishing second of eight on his far side group last time and on his previous two victories at Doncaster and Sandown looks sure to be thereabouts.   PROTAGONIST 1 point win @ 11/4 Betfred   Newmarket 3.00 Next up is the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes for two year olds run over 7F of the Rowley mile. Unfortunately Sakheer who was supplemented on Monday was taken out of the race at the eleventh hour with a dirty scope which must have been infuriating for his connections. The warm favourite here is Sir Michael Stoute’s Nostrum who looked so good when winning over course and distance 16 days ago from Holloway Boy who runs in the previous race and could well give him a late form boost. As smart as he looked that day he represents scant value to my eyes at around the 6/4 mark and it’s the owners other runner trained by Andrew Balding Chaldean who I want to be with. He’s beaten the same horse (Indestructible) on his last two outings and there will no doubt be people asking what he’s actually beaten but his trainer was very complimentary after his latest win saying he’s a ‘high class horse in the making’ and with some firms paying three places here in this seven runner contest can be played each way. Charlie Appleby saddles his Naval Power who’s stepping up in grade having won two listed contests but didn’t blow me away with his performance last time and looks short enough in the market at around 10/3. I wouldn’t discount Brian Meehan’s Isaac Shelby who’s had a break since winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes back in July. He looks over priced at double figure odds.   CHALDEAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5 123   York 3.15 A widely competitive twenty two runner 6F class 2 sprint completes the televised York coverage. Interestingly 8 of the last 10 winners of this race were drawn in a single figure stall so it may pay to concentrate on those drawn low. That would rule our Gulliver who’s won two of the last three renewals of this event off of higher handicap marks (drawn in 22) and last year’s runner up Laugh A Minute from stall 21. Course specialist (5 wins from 11 starts) Dakota Gold looks interesting from stall 2 and likewise from box 1 Roger Varian’s Dusky Lord who took his field apart in the Ayr Silver Cup last time for which he’s been given a 9lb rise in the weights. I’ll take him to back that win up although I wouldn’t discount last year’s winner Volatile Analyst at big price to bounce back to form.   DUSKY LORD 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Newmarket 3.40 For the first time this century we have less than thirty runners contesting this years renewal of the Cesarewitch Handicap with a mere 23 runners going to post for the 2m 2F contest. Following the sad news of the Pipe’s Adagio dropping down dead following a a heart attack on the gallops on Friday morning ( who incidentally would of been a very strong fancy of mine) the market is now headed by two NH trainers in Nicky Henderson’s Ahorsewithnoname and Charles Byrne’s Run For Oscar. Both have solid chances with my slight preference for the former who’s been trained for this just like last years winner Buzz by the Seven Barrows maestro. She won two two mile handicaps in the Spring in facile fashion and despite a 10lb rise for her latest win at York could still be ahead of her mark. Ryan Moore has been booked and she’s the main bet in the race. Others that can run well include Frankie Dettori’s mount Zoffee who didn’t get the clearest of runs when last seen at York in August whilst Gibraltar is one of three left in by Irish trainer Willie Mullins who has a good record in the race having won three of the lat four renewals. His other two runners are Scaramanga (first run for the Closutton trainer) and Baby Zeus (now the mount of William Buick) and have to be given respect. She may not be much of a price for such a big field handicap but Ahorsewithnoname can take this for Henderson who’s won this race three times before.   AHORSEWITHNONAME 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
  15. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to azzybear in Racing Chat - Friday 30th September.   
    continius 12.20 don't think  aiden o brain as sent this horse to France for no reason 
  16. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to LeMale in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Well, all that work just to break even. ? Was fun to watch though, just a shame i couldn't quite get my ears around the commentry although it was funny. I think he was listing the horses from 1st to last...think he finished when they were entering the home straight.? Mind you, there were over 30 horses bless him. 
  17. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to kensland in RACING CHAT SUNDAY 25 SEPTEMBER   
    W. Buick only ride at Cologn, Reblel's Romance.     1st doubled it with Daydream. Dancer 2nd. 
    Good luck all. 
  18. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Friday 23rd September   
    Haydock 1.30 A eight runner class 2 5F nursery kicks today’s terrestrial racing off. Four of the eight participants are making their handicap debuts with the most interesting the top weight Al Dasim who’s joined George Boughey since he last ran. The one I feel they all have to beat is the Tom Clover trained Rogue Spirit who should appreciate dropping down to the minimum trip having showed up well in a decent nursery over 6F last time out. 7lb apprentice Connor Planas retains the ride and he should be thereabouts.   ROGUE SPIRIT 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   Newmarket 1.50 Eleven fillies and mares go to post for the listed Rosemary Stakes run over a mile. The race features two improving three year olds who are stepping out of handicap company and the race revolves around that pair. Harry and Roger Charlton saddle Whitebeam who’s chasing a four timer and should be thereabouts although my personal preference is for the Sir Michael Stoute filly Crystal Caprice who is also chasing a four timer under Ryan Moore and can take this in her stride.   CRYSTAL CAPRICE 2 points win @ 5/2 Coral   Haydock 2.05 A fourteen runner class 3 one mile handicap is up next. It has a very open look about it and stakes should be kept to a minimum. Making their handicap debuts are Moon Watch from the John and Thady Gosden stable and Vintage Choice from William Haggas’s yard. Delorean from Ralph Beckett’s won a handicap over course and distance last time and is also interesting All three are of interest and it will be interesting to see how they go in the market. I’ll take a chance each way with the latter.   DELOREAN 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 2.25 The Group 3 Dubai Stakes run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares may be fought out by William Haggas’s Sea Silk Road and Charlie Appleby’s Eternal Pearl. Preference is for the latter to turn the tables on his rival having been beaten half a length by her and 3lb worse off today. She’s improved since winning three times and with the Appleby operation in such excellent form can take this under William Buick.   ETERNAL PEARL 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365   Haydock 2.40 An open looking three year old only 1m 6F handicap which can go to the Hughie Morrison trained Speycaster who was a fancy of mine here in a Sinai or race when well backed but was pulled out due to the fast ground. Conditions are likely to suit better and he looks a good each way bet here.   SPEYCASTER 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Newmarket 3.00 Fourteen go to post for the 7F Group2 Rockfel Stakes for two year old fillies. John and Thady Gosden’s Commissioning heads the market having looked a smart sort when bolting up on her debut here at the July course back in July. The form of that contest looks a bit mixed although the 5th and 9th have both won since. There’s a lot to like about her except the price and for that reason alone I’ll take her on. Irish challenger Olivia Maralda brings the best form to the table with her second to Mediate last time out and she looks great each way value for the in form Michael O’Callaghan stable.   OLIVIA MARALDA 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 3.35 Seven go to post for the Group 2 Joel Stakes run over a mile. The highest rated in the field is the Archie Watson trained Tempus who’s chasing a four timer and looks the one to beat under Hollie Doyle. Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova bounced back to form last time and has claims along with the two Charlie Hills runners Mutasaabeq and Pogo.   TEMPUS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365
  19. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to MCLARKE in FUNERAL OF QUEEN ELIZABETH II   
    As a mark of respect there will be no Naps competition on Monday.
  20. Like
    Nigwilliam got a reaction from black rabbit in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Ayr 340 Sir Dancealot 50/1 ewx 6pl.   bet365
    £10 ew.
  21. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Won, profit £144
    Monthly profit £120
  22. Like
    Nigwilliam got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Yar 135 Portelet Bay. 9/2. skybet 4pl.
    £10 ew.
     
     
  23. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to Budgie 65 in American horse racing system   
    R2 Thistledown
    Hitch City 9/2 lost
    won easily Last Time and has a Good Chance of following up
    R4 Thistledown
    kociousko nap 6/4 lost
    Under a length second Last Time in a Good Time giving kociousko a good Chance of going one better today
    R7 Ohio player NB13/8 lost
    won easily Last Time and Looks good enough to Follow up
    R8 Cowtown Boss 2/1 won
    In a Weak Looking event Cowtown Boss should have to much class for This lot
     
     
  24. Sad
    Nigwilliam got a reaction from The Equaliser in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Lost       4th. 
  25. Like
    Nigwilliam reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Sunday 11th September   
    A bumper afternoon’s racing on Sunday with ten races on ITV’s schedule. The ground in Ireland at The Curragh will be soft and pretty testing whilst in Yorkshire the ground will be on the slow side with the current going description reading good to soft (soft in places) which with showers forecast can only worsen. Good luck everyone finding a winner or two and here’s my thoughts -   Doncaster 1.35   Only eight go to post for the Flying Childers, a group 2 contest for two year olds run over 5F. The front two in the market have the best form although neither have raced on softish ground. The Platinum Queen looked all speed with victories at York and Goodwood prior to an even better effort when runner up in the Nunthorpe at York behind sprinting sensation Highfield Princess. All three of those runs though were on rattling fast ground and how she will cope with easy ground no one knows. The same applies to Richard Hannon’s Trillium who took the group 3 Molecomb Stakes at their big meeting in good style from Rocket Rodney (beaten since). The former has the better form credentials but I am worried of the ground for her. I’ll take a chance with Jessie Harrington’s Funny Money Honey who will need to improve to take this but won’t mind the soft ground and looked all about speed last week at Salisbury where he led the field for 5F before weakening quickly. Hollie Doyle retains the ride and she’s worth a small each way bet.   FUNNY MONEY HONEY 1/2 point each way @ 22/1 William Hill 1/5 123   Curragh 1.50 The Group 2 Blandford Stakes will be run over 10F and is for three year old and older fillies and mares. Paddy Twomey’s La Petite Coco is the highest rated of the thirteen strong field and will be hard to beat on ground that should be in her favour. Penalised 3lb for her Group one victory in the Pretty Polly over course and distance in June, her first since winning this very race a year ago by a short head from Love she will be ridden, as per normal, by Billy Lee. Nine three year olds take her on here with the best of them the Ryan Moore ridden Above The Curve who we haven’t seen since May when winning the Group one Prix Saint Alary at Longchamp. Joseph O’Brien’s filly has to shoulder, like La Petite Coco, a 3lb penalty but looks the biggest threat to the selection.   LA PETITE COCO 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill   Doncaster 2.10 A maximum field of twenty two go to post for this year’s renewal of the 5F 143 yards Portland Handicap. Favourite Whenthedealisdone won with his head in his chest a week ago at Ascot and although a 10lb rise was high enough he should run well on ground that should suit Roger Teal’s four year old. Teal also saddles Chipstead but he may not be as well suited by soft ground as his stable mate. Tim Easterby’s bottom weight Count D’Orsay was third in this last year and off of a handicap mark 8lb lower can run well along with Karl Burke’s Significantly who’s effort last time at York can be forgotten as he was given a nasty bump a couple of furlongs out which put paid to any chance he had at the time. The handicapper kindly dropped him 4lb to 96 which is the same mark as he last won off of (Ascot last Summer) and as a Royal Ascot winner last year on heavy ground won’t mind the softening conditions. At a big price he’s worth backing each way along with Count D’Orsay.   SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 COUNT D’ORSAY 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123456     Curragh 2.25 Highfield Princess did us a nice turn when winning the Nunthorpe at York 23 days ago and looks the one they all have to beat in the Group one Flying Five Stakes for the Yorkshire stable of John Quinn who does well with his forays over the Irish Channel. She appears to handle any ground and must go well although at round the 7/4 mark has been well found in the market. She is worth a small stakes saver against Adrian McGuinness’s A Case Of You who is officially rated only 3lb behind the favourite but can be backed at around the 9/1 mark currently. She was a 33/1 chance when runner up in the contest a year ago when going down by a half a length to the re-appearing Romantic Proposal and followed that excellent effort up by winning the Prix de L’Abbaye on Arc day on bottomless ground. Following a successful stint at the Meydan Dubai Carnival where he won the group one Al Quoz Sprint he’s yet to hit top form but the drop to the minimum trip and soft ground should bring about the requisite improvement needed and he can be played each way.   A CASE OF YOU 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 HIGHFIELD PRINCESS 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365   Doncaster 2.45   It’s hard to oppose favourite Trueshan in this 2m 2F Doncaster Cup where the more rain that falls the better for Alan King’s mudlark. He’s head and shoulders above his opponents here and with his likely optimum conditions impossible to oppose. Andrew Balding’s Coltrane maybe the one to chase him home but I fully expect Trueshan to win comfortably. At the odds I don’t see a bet unless you want to play the winning distance markets.   Curragh 3.00 The 7F Moyglare Stakes is a group one contest for two year old fillies and features the smart Aidan O’Brien trained Mediate who’s bidding to keep her unbeaten run in tact having won all four of her starts including Group 3’s at Naas and Royal Ascot and a Group 2 over course and distance in August. She looks smart and will be hard to beat but if there is one horse who might be top class then surely it’s Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra. She looked useful when winning on her debut in a 7F Galway maiden when pushed out to put 5 1/2L between herself and the subsequent winner Dower House on rain softened ground. She’s owned by the Aga Khan and is a half sister to the great Tarnawa, one of my all time faves (though don’t talk to me about last year’s Arc!). Mediate will probably win but I can’t resist a small each way play on Tahiyra to prove she’s useful.   TAHIYRA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Doncaster 3.20 Nine go to post for the 7F Group 2 Park Stakes for three year olds and older. Kinross will appreciate the rain softened ground having won a similar contest at York last time although does have to shoulder a 3lb penalty today. These are his optimum conditions mind so he looks sure to run a big race. The soft ground appears to have gone against the likes of Sacred, Double Or Bubble and Jumby and the best each way value against the favourite who looks skinny enough at around 7/4 may well be Charlie Hills’ Garrus. This will be only his second attempt at 7F but was staying on again when an excellent third in the 6 1/F Group one Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last time behind two subsequent Group one winners in Highfield Princess and Minzaal. A reproduction of that effort would put him right in the mix so let’s go each way with him in the hope the extra half a furlong brings out more improvement.   GARRUS 1 point each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123   Curragh 3.35 A small but select field of six go to post for the Group one National Stakes run over 7F for two year olds. The Futurity Stakes run over course and distance three weeks ago is the go to form line with Aidan O’Brien’s Aesop’s Fables coming home 2 1/4L ahead of stable companion Hans Anderson and there appears no reason why the latter should turn the form around. Just behind in third that day was Joseph O’Brien’s Proud And Regal and once again will need to improve to turn the form around. English challenger Marbaan was last seen winning a weak Group 2 at Goodwood and will likely have to step up again on ground he’s never run on as yet. I wouldn’t be shocked if Johnny Murtagh’s Shartash out runs his odds now he’s stepping up a furlong on ground he’s proven on and is worth a small saver.   AESOPS FABLES 3 points win @ 5/6 William Hill SHARTASH 1 point win @ 14/1 BetVictor   Doncaster 3.55 This year’s St Leger has a bit of a sub standard look to it with just the nine going to post. A warm favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained New London who steps up to 1m 6F for the first time but won’t get beat through lack of stamina having finished strongly when winning the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. That form had worked out remarkably well with the runner up Deauville Legend winning the Group 3 Great Voltigeur since, the 3rd and re-opposing here Hoo Ya Mal landing the odds at Goodwood in a Group 3, the 4th Jack Darcy finishing runner up in a Deauville listed contest, the 5th Cresta winning a listed race at Windsor by 6 1/2L and the 6th West Wind Blows winning a Group 3 at Longchamp. Red hot form and New London will be hard to beat. Current second favourite is Roger Varian’s Eldar Eldarov who won the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot but flopped in France last time. The supplemented Haskoy looks a a smart filly but lacks experience having won a Wolverhampton novice stakes and a listed contest at York, this represents a big step up in class. I think New London will probably win but would prefer an each way bet on Hoo Ya Mal who was runner up in the Derby this year and although has 2L to make up with New London on Goodwood form did push him all the way and his new owner (soon to be trainer) Gai Waterhouse was very bullish about his chances on a recent Nick Luck podcast stating she expects him to win ! He’s off to Australia after this race to be trained for the Melbourne Cup and looks an each way bet to nothing to my eyes though whether he can topple the favourite is another matter.   HOO YA MAL 1 point each way 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123   Curragh 4.10 Kyprios is a warm order for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore to take the Irish St Leger run over 1m 6F for three year olds and upwards. He’s unbeaten this season in four starts at Navan (listed), Leopardstown (group 3), Ascot (Gold Cup) and Goodwood (Goodwood Cup) with all four of those success’s coming on good fast ground. His three worst RPR’s in his career have come on soft ground although he did win a weak maiden on his debut at Galway on heavy and it might just be that he’s a better horse on decent ground. Certainly at around the 4/7 mark I don’t want to pay to find out and I’m happy to take him on each way with the English raider Hamish. Trained at Newmarket by master handler William Haggas he has undoubted talent especially when the mud is flying with his form figures on ground with the word soft in the title reading 112441. He’s seemingly quite a hard horse to train as we don’t see much of him nowadays but you can be sure Haggas has him ready for this and he can overcome a 129 day absence and run a big race under Richard Kingscote. Search For A Song has to be mentioned also as she won the 2019 and 2020 runnings of this and her stable is in buoyant form.   HAMISH 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123    
×
×
  • Create New...