Nigwilliam

Won      Returns £122
Bank £394

Won      Returns £122
Bank £394

winner
40/1 bog +£500
p/l dec +£487.13

I would just like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a very Happy Christmas and lets hope for a Healthy New Year.
I hope you've enjoyed my initial couple of months at the Punters Lounge, my ramblings on here and the daily tips on the horse racing tips section which are showing a healthy profit of £1312.87 (at £20 stake units) since 21st November.
I can pass on a tip for GOLD FOR LOUISE (1.42 Pau) later although the horse has already been smashed into. Top price 6/4 now.
 
The Brigadier
 
 
 

4/1 Won.     Returned £80
Bank £312

4/1 Won.     Returned £80
Bank £312

Ascot 150 Benny's King 11/2
Wolv. 430 Amor Fati 8/1
£10 ew double skybet. 

2nd
+£43.13
p/l +£117.13

1.10 uttoxeter Welsh castle 25/1 £10 e/w bet365 

3rd 
+£26
p/l this month +£94

4th.   Returns  £76
Bank £352

Won. Balance + £160
CATTERICK 12.20
DETATCHED 9/2
£20 WIN BET365

I will be doing a full preview of this race over the next two days when the 5 day declarations are made Monday lunchtime but there's a horse I like in the race whom I think is currently overpriced and worth backing now as I can only see his price shorten. The horse in question is the Harry Fry trained Lightly Squeeze. A three time winner last season in the mud (Ascot's ground is currently soft with a wet forecast) he re-appeared in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las back in October when running well to the last before cutting out (through lack of fitness or his wind cutting out which I'll get to later) eventually trailing in  7th place beaten some 19l by the winner Sceau Royal who's gone on finish placed in both the Fighting Fifth (to Champion Hurdle favourite Epatante) and Saturday's International Hurdle. In second place that day was Ballyandy who's been placed in the Greatwood Hurdle and International Hurdle since, 3rd was Buzz who bolted up in a Ascot handicap Hurdle and is currently 5/1 favourite for this race but has been re-assessed and Lightly Squeeze can re-oppose on 15lb better terms for 16 lengths but is four times the price. The 5th, 6th and even 8th Ecco have all won since and it is the best piece of handicap hurdle form seen this NH season.
In a recent stable file in the Racing Post trainer Fry said that Lightly Squeeze had undergone a soft palate operation since Ffos Las which surely can only enhance his chances. I'm not privy to know whether he will stand his ground but seem no reason why he won't and advise an each way bet before he's cut in price.  It is a highly competitive handicap with the right favourite in Buzz but on the revised terms Lightly Squeeze looks way overpriced.
LIGHTLY SQUEEZE  1 point each way 20/1 Ladbrokes or Corals

welcome win after a losing run!
return 75.83, profit 55.83
this month - minus 26.98

Almost threw it away. A profit of £130. Total for month +£150.
DONCASTER 12.55
MAGIC DANCER 5/1
£20 WIN BET365
 

"Slow 1st and reminder,never going that well and more slow jumps,mistake 11th,well behind 14,th,
Pulled up after.".         Blimey!
Bank £396

I think one thing you have to think about is - Why are you betting ?
I can't really speak for people who are in it to make money ..... that's never been my focus
My enjoyment has always been in solving the puzzle. Assessing form, factors, coming  to a conclusion and hopefully being proved right. What I've found is that I get just as much satisfaction from being proved right whether I have 2 quid or 20 quid on. In fact with the various racing competitions on PL I rarely bet on horses at all ....... I get the same buzz from posting a winner with no money on it
I got it right, it feels good, have a little skip around the room !
I do bet on football, very small stakes...... but I suspect if we had an equivalent Nap of the Day on football I might even give that up and just get my buzz from the competition
So .......... I only bet with very small stakes and don't worry about losing
So this would be my advice ........ if you're not in it to make money just play with small stakes and get your enjoyment from 'solving the puzzle'
 
 
 

I've evolved constantly over the past 10 11 years ......when I first came onto this site about 10 years ago I was doing speed ratings and I think my first post was speed ratings for the 1000 guineas where I tipped blue bunting at 66/1 top rated and he duly won ...winning me 670 in the process.which was pretty special ...I probably spent the next couple years having a fair bit of success with the speed ratings but I realised after a while that there are many factors involved with what makes a horse win on the day .....weight ...distance....conditions ....jockey ...course ..class ..I was watching a documentary on the weather one day and they said they improved the computers weather accuracy from 18% to over 60 % by running 30 or 40 slightly differing scenarios and going with the most likely outcome that the computer predicted overall ....I remember thinking what if I applied that to racing ....so every single day I picked races and for about 12 monthes I taught myself why certain horses won and why horses lost when they were meant to win .....I learnt how to hcap horses ....how to rate class .....I could already speed rate ....so I came up with a spreadsheet that could rate it all ......it worked really  well so then I made another that would give preference to class in one rating.....would give weight preference in another.....speed in another and so on .....eventually after about 20 diff spreadsheets or programs and I'm talking hundreds of hours of programming i taught it to basically look at the big picture and take it's best guess at what the horse could should do today based on everything  ....and that's just what it does ....its as accurate now as it's ever been so I dont mess with it much but I do sometimes alter variables or maths and run the new thing alongside the old to see if it improves profit etc ........I have to constantly watch things though ....I started getting a run of bad results about 12 months ago and after investigating I realised that an error had occurred in the complicated maths .....was literally a bug that the program had created which inserted a single division sign in the 30 line code and then auto saved it so I have to periodically check the code now and even reload an original copy to make sure these bugs dont occur .....I bet solely for fun ....but the ratings have paid for a couple of holidays over the years and given me so much fun and excitement  so I feel all the hard work has been paid off  in full and I just trust them now blindly .....I wait to see what the ratings are then just look for the best value .....but I'm always open to new ideas or posibiltys ...sometimes ill see something or an idea will pop into my head and ill try it to see if it works .....in the last 12 monthes I altered the class rating and it seems to have made the ratings more accurate so I left it in ....constantly evolving lol 
I had this book years ago which had a formula you could do on a calculator ....it was about 7 or 9 stage formula .....I lost the book and couldn't remember the title .....if I could see it again I might try that because it was pretty good at picking winners ....if anyone knows what it is I'd love to know lol

backed in too 17/2 
+£300
p/l +£160

todays selections

MUSSELBURGH 12:15 Newtown Boy 7/1 e/w 4 Places

MUSSELBURGH 14:15 Taxmeifyoucan 17/2 e/w 3 Places

MUSSELBURGH 14:45 Racing Pulse 5/1 e/w 3 Places

plus e/w trixie

Let's hope some clever fog moves in to replace it ? 
1.40 Punch - BATTLEOVERDOYEN 7/1 ew bet365 last night , now 5's.
Beat Easy Game & Samcro in Grade 2 at Down Royal over 19f on yeilding 36 days ago ,  3/4 Mullins runners may need the run Chris's Dream back 3.5f in trip from Grade 1 at Down Royal represents the biggest threat.

return 65.63, profit 45.63
this month + 57.19

return 36.56, profit 16.56
this month +11.56

return 55.00, profit 35.00, 
this month - minus 5

Yesterday's selection won. Balance + £120.
SEDGEFIELD 12.35
LOSTNFOUND 9/1
£20 WIN BET365