blueboy199

It is Non-League Day on Saturday and hopefully it can be a profitable one for us.   National League treble Although Stockport surprisingly went 2 down against Wealdstone last Saturday the fact they still ended up winning the game 4-2 spoke volumes about how strong they are. Amazingly they even felt the need to strengthen on Thursday ahead of the transfer window closing. They travel to an Eastleigh side who are continue to struggle and didn't even have a shot on target on Tuesday night in the defeat against Dagenham. Weymouth are doomed to relegation and they look in shocking shape at the moment. They are conceding plenty of goals and Torquay really ought to get another 3 points. Finally Wrexham look in cracking shape right now and as much as I can't see them catching Stockport they should finish 2nd. I can see them scoring a few past Dover but will stick the -1 handicap in the treble.   Guiseley v Chester I was very keen to oppose Guiseley on Tuesday night and apart from missing a penalty they created very little against Telford. Sadly for us Telford couldn't muster a shot on target despite threatening more than their hosts. Chester were very unfortunate to draw at Gloucester on Tuesday night as they dominated the game yet Gloucester somehow got an injury time equalizer. Chester are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and I think they will have too much for a Guiseley side who are looking like they might be the ones to go down from the National League North this season.   Chelmsford v Hungerford Neither side come into this game in great form with the home side losing 6 on the bounce and the away side 4. Things aren't right at Chelmsford at the moment though with the fans unhappy with what is going off the pitch. They are in big danger of being the team to be relegated from the division this season. Hungerford have conceded 14 goals in those 4 loses, but then Chelmsford have only scored 3 times in their 6 defeats so their defence might be able to hold out. Hungerford have been scoring goals though and of course they pushed our bets Eastbourne close last Saturday. I just don't think there is as much between the two sides as the betting suggests so the away side are worth a bet.   Slough v Braintree Braintree continue to be one of the form sides in the division and only Maidstone (twice) and Dulwich have beaten them in their last 10 league games. They are also the only side to have beaten Slough in their last 7 league games and I think they look value to do the same again here. I know Slough have only lost that one game in 7, but they haven't been massively convincing in their performances and again these two teams should be closer together in the betting.   Stockport/Torquay/Wrexham -1 2pts treble @ 1.94/1 with Betfred (take up to 6/4) Chester 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to Evs) Hungerford 1pt @ 13/5 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 13/8) Braintree 1pt @ 3/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 2/1)

The 2nd jumps meeting of the season comes from Warrnambool and as per last week we have a maiden hurdle, an open hurdle and an open steeplechase.
Race 1
It is no real surprise that Hush Write is the short price favourite as he has some very good flat form. His last flat run saw him finish 4th in a Listed Race at Randwick and certainly nothing else in this race which could get anywhere near that. There is only video available of one of his hurdle trials and he didn't jump all that well although he wasn't exactly asked for an effort at any stage. This is a very weak contest though and if he didn't win this it would be very disappointing. Once Were Lost is solid enough and might be capable of placing, whilst Johnny Buccaneer looks like being the biggest danger to the favourite.
Race 2
I'm keen on Annunciate here. I don't fancy any of those who ran last week so I'm happy to pass those over. So Belafonte was only seen once over hurdles last year and was only 4th at Terang. He showed some fair form in 2020 over hurdles and has been running well enough on the flat this year so a good showing wouldn't surprise. St Arnicca is 1/1 over hurdles having won over course and distance last July. That race wasn't a strong maiden though and his flat form this year has not been good. His hurdle trial was better and he could be the main danger. I thought Annunciate's jumping in his first trial last season was superb and I fancied him to win on his debut, but he bumped into Wil John who ended up being the best hurdler we saw last year. He duly won on his next hurdle start, but did disappoint on his first start in a handicap. I think he's better than that and he's been running well on the flat building up to a return to hurdles. He maps to get an easy lead so hopefully he can dictate from the front and put his superb jumping to good effect.
Annunciate 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
Race 3
San Remo and American In Paris certainly have claims here on their first chase starts of the season, but I think the 1st and 2nd from last week's chase could be the two to focus on and I think Britannicus can reverse form with Rexmont. Rexmont was given a cracking ride from the front to see off Britannicus, but this weeks race is over another 250m and if it had been that far last week then I think Britannicus would have won. Rexmont also has gone up the handicap slightly so Britannicus gets more weight again this week as well which will also aide his cause. Price wise I wouldn't want to go too much shorter, but I do think he's the most likely winner.
Britannicus 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power

Excuse the lack of puntuation in places as I had to type it out on my Ipad, but here is my preview for the last race at Exeter this afternoon   Park Hill Dancer had black of the glade 7l behind him when he won at barbury in December and it was probably a decent race given he has won since and the 2nd was a well backed favourite. He might have been a slightly fortunate winner thought James King on the 2nd mistook the winning post.

Hilltown was hugely impressive when winning at Larkhill last month and really quickened away in some style. Hard to know what he beat, and the 2nd was only 3rd at the weekend, but the time was 13 seconds quicker than the 2nd division and he won by 25l.

Black of the glade was very impressive 9 days ago and he certainly looked like he had come on for that opening run but then clearly the winner could progress as well.

My little Toni is the only one of these to have run over fences and he looked booked for 2nd at Larkhill when the leader came to grief at 3 out which left him on his own. To me there looks to be better horses in this.

In Exell and gingerbred finished 2nd and 3rd at Great Trethew last month and I certainly think the former can uphold form. The penny dropped late on and he was very close on actually getting up to win. I have a feeling though that he might need a strong test and I can see them going a crawl and it turning into a sprint which is unlikely to suit.

Park Hill Dancer might well win but he’s priced on his trainer and for me Hilltown looks the value as he was very impressive on debut showing a great turn of foot to score.   Hilltown 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone

Great to have the jumps action back in Australia and I am looking forward to following it all the way through to the end of August once again. Annoyingly though it starts on Gold Cup day at Terang and that means I just don't have the time to go through the form for all the races. The maiden hurdle which starts the card sees most of them making their hurdles debuts and I need to watch all the various trials which I just don't have the time to do. The horse with the best flat form is favourite and that is Into Rio. I did watch his trial and he was a bit novicey at some of the flights, but he potted around at the back so I'm not sure we learnt a great deal. He might well win, but without watching any of the others in trials I don't want to commit to anything.
In Race 2 the BM 120 Hurdle it should go the way of Heberite who won on his hurdles debut at Ballarat in August. He comes from the right yard and they have booked Pateman for the ride. He might well progress into a good jumper this season although he's odds on here so again it is no bet.
Race 3 is the steeplechase on the card and I will be having a bet here. My Kings Counsel and Lucques were 1st and 2nd in this race last year and I did put up Lucques a couple of times later in the season as he ran some promising races, but he flattered to deceive so I'm leaving him alone. This year's running looks stronger as well. Britannicus is favourite on his 2nd start over fences and I can see why. He has some useful hurdles form and in his one steeplechase run to date he was lame at the end of the race so it would explain his disappointing effort. I watched his recent trail and he jumped pretty well with the main danger when slipping up on one of the turns. He ran well on the flat prior to that trial as well. I am however going to go with Rexmont. He was 3rd in the previous race on this card last year and he soon went over fences and did really well in the early part of the season including winning at Pakenham on his first start over them. He beat Lucques in a recent trial and the fact the ground has dried out to a Soft 5 will be a big help to his chances. I think at 100/30 he offers some value against the favourite.
Rexmont 1pt @ 100/30 with Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral

Verdict - I think Bob And Co has to be the bet. I was of the belief last year that he was the horse that should have been favourite in the race and I still think he looks the classiest horse in the contest. Obviously he has to get round safely, but it was a slightly unfortunate unseat last year so I am confident he will do so. With Maxwell riding much better this season I'm not so worried about him being on top. Clearly he is no James King or Gina Andrews, but if the horse is good enough then he can get the job done. At the prices and the enhanced place terms he looks a cracking e/w bet. I want some coverage on Dubai Quest because I think he is the most progressive horse in the race. Yes I am concerned about his jumping and that might stop him from winning, but a stronger gallop might actually help on that front and he has a serious engine. Overworkdunderpaid looks the best of those at big odds. The way the race was run at Haydock didn't suit him at all as he is all about stamina. The rain on Wednesday was exactly what he wanted as he is at his best in testing conditions and whilst it will dry out a bit by race time it should still be ideal for him. He looks an improved horse this season based on his pointing and Haydock runs. Clearly Billaway is going to be a leading contender again, but I can let him win at the price he is as he's way too short for me. If Pont Aven stays then he might well be involved in the finish, but for me that's a fairly big if and I'm not sure Winged Leader can uphold the Thurles form with Billaway let alone win.   Bob And Co 2pts e/w @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred all to 4 places. Bet365 are 13/2 to 5 places (take up to 5/1 e/w and then 2.5pts win up to 7/2) Dubai Quest 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred all to 4 places. Ladbrokes and Coral are 11/1 for 5 places (take up to 8/1) Overworkdunderpaid 1pt e/w @ 33/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places and Betfred to 4 places (take up to 16/1)   Fakenham preview   I am not surprised at all to see Not That Fuisse become favourite over Actival. I thought he ran really well in his first hunter chase at Ludlow when staying on well to finish 3rd behind Hogans Height. He came from behind and I think they rode him to get the trip which given the way he finished his race off wasn't an issue in the end. Last time at Ludlow he was just creeping into contention when unfortunately a horse fell right in front of him and he had nowhere to go. Pont Aven won very easily in the end so I doubt he would have won, but I like to think he would have at least finished 2nd. He is at his best on decent ground and whilst the rain on Wednesday wouldn't have helped, Fakenham rarely gets testing and two drying days since then should mean the ground will be fine and it was soft when he was 3rd at Ludlow anyway. I can only see him getting shorter in the betting and he looks to have an excellent chance.   When Actival ran ahead of Southwell last week I wrote that his pointing form so far this season left him with a lot to find with the other leading fancies in the race. It was probably a personal best so far this season when finishing 2nd, but that race fell apart big time. Global Racing went at the first and Salvatore clearly didn't run his race. The fact that serial loser Deau Vivant ended up winning the race says a lot for me about the form going forward. I certainly would have backed Not That Fuisse to have won that Southwell contest and with Amy being by far the worse jockey out of the 3 leading contenders I think he will need something to happen at least to Not That Fuisse and probably Peacocks Secret as well if he is going to win.   Peacocks Secret is a course and distance winner which is always a big plus round here after he won here last March. That race fell apart a bit as well, but he followed that up with a very good 3rd at Cheltenham. The 3rd at Duncombe Park on his seasonal debut was a fair effort and I thought he ran well enough at Leicester last time with 2 good horses in front of him. He handles any ground so that doesn't matter and he is likely to make the running under his very good jockey. I think he is certainly capable of beating Actival and if something happens to the favourite he can take advantage.   I'm really confident about the chances of Not That Fuisse here as I think he is currently running to a higher level of form than Actival. Given I don't fancy Actival at all I thought it was worth having a saver on Peacocks Secret as he is also over priced and he could well get an time of things out in front. Dale is very good at judging the pace so that does make him dangerous. If Actival wins then I have either got very unlucky or I have got the race badly wrong!   Not That Fuisse 4pts @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11)
Peacock Secret 1pt @ 5/1 with most firms (take up to 3/1)

23 horses are still in the Cheltenham Hunters Chase at the 6 day stage and here are my thoughts on all the runners. I am going to hold off on putting any bets up at the moment as I think it is worth waiting until after the final decs as there will be extra places on offer for e/w bets.    Back Bar - Managed to beat Cousin Pascal in a point at Charing on his seasonal return which on the face of it is obviously a strong piece of form, but Cousin Pascal didn't give his true running that day. He followed that up by pulling up on his next start at Ampton and then was 2nd at Milborne St Andrew. He did manage to win a hunter chase at Leicester last time, but it wasn't a strong affair especially in the context of this race and it is hard to see him being anywhere near good enough.   Billaway - Will be a big surprise if he doesn't go off favourite for the 3rd year running, but will he finish 2nd for the 3rd year running? He was a bit unfortunate to bump into Porlock Bay last year because the pair finished well clear of the rest and after not really enjoying Aintree he then bounced back to push Bob and Co all the way to the line at Punchestown. This season he had an early season setback and we didn't see him until January where his trainer said he would need the run and he certainly ran like it finishing a 12L 2nd to Winged Leader. He was much better last time at Naas though when won with ease jumping well apart from one error. He wore cheekpieces for the first time and he did seem to travel much better in them. The big problem is he essentially beat little as his stablemate Good Bye Sam is still a maiden and was beaten in a very weak Maiden Hunters' Chase last week at long odds on. In recent years you have wanted to be 10 or 11 to win this race and he is now 10. A repeat of last year's run might well be good enough, but does he really deserve to be such a short priced favourite given Bob And Co beat him at Punchestown and he hasn't actually achieved a great deal in either of his runs this season? I don't think so personally and whilst I can obviously see him being good enough to win, I just couldn't be backing him at the price he is   Bob And Co - David Maxwell wasn't able to ride in this race last year and he ended up unseating Sean Bowen at 3 out when he was still going very well. Obviously it is impossible to know where he would have finished, but I think he would have been in the first 3 given how he travelled and obviously the fact he won at Punchestown proves he has the ability to win this. If you were following my hunter chase previews last season then you will know that opposing David Maxwell horses was a great way to make money as he was riding poorly. He got injured in a fall which meant he didn't ride for a while and then Covid rules stopped him from riding. To start with he didn't look fit enough and then his decision making was shocking and he was getting beaten on horses that really should have been winning. Indeed he only rode 3 winners one of which was Bob And Co beating trees at Hexham, one was Dolphin Square winning a match at Kelso and the other was Bob And Co at Punchestown. This current jumps season though he has been riding as well as he ever has and he might not get a better chance of winning this race than he will this year. I know Bob And Co got beat at Haydock, but they went a crawl in very bad ground and Cousin Pascal was just able to do the him and the 3rd for speed. Paul Nicholls said before and after the race that he was being trained to peak for Cheltenham and he would come on for the run at Haydock. I also think that the reason Maxwell didn't make it more of a stamina test was because he knew the horse needed the run and I reckon Paul would have told him to mind him in the bad ground so he didn't leave his race behind. If there is one negative about him then his jumping isn't always foot perfect, as he showed a year ago, but otherwise I don't see how he wont be involved in the finish.   Cousin Pascal - A slightly surprising runner as all the vibes were he was going to go to Aintree to try and hold onto his crown there. Connections though have decided to come here first and I don't really blame them for having a go given they have already won at Aintree they may as well try and win this. As his trainer said in an article last week the owner might never get a horse good enough to go to Cheltenham again. He has had two disappointing runs since coming to this country one was at Alnwick last season and the other at Charing this season when he was only 2nd to Back Bar. His trainer has mentioned that he travels badly and that is why he disappointed on those occasions and you would have that in the back of your mind here as it wouldn't be a really close journey for him. After Charing he was 2nd to Wagner at Hereford in a race which has worked out very well given Wagner won at Wincanton, albeit in fortunate circumstances and the 3rd has also won since. His trainer thought he idled that day and the reason he got beat was because Marcle Ridge wasn't able to take him further into the race. I'm not really buying that though because he didn't look to me as if he idled at Aintree. Joe also said he idled at Haydock, but Bob And Co and Overworkdunderpaid seemed to close up on him without being ridden all that hard. He certainly had fitness on his side over Bob And Co and I think the form will be reversed especially over a much stiffer stamina test. As I said above they went a crawl and that played into James Kings hands as he had more speed than the others. If they had made it more of a stamina test I reckon you might have got a different result and I'm not sure 3m2f round Cheltenham run in a race likely to be run at a strong pace is going to play to his strengths. What he does have on his side is one of the best jockey's in the race and he's clearly a very good horse so if he did happen to stay then he probably won't be far away.   Desire De Joie - Won a very weak Mens Open at Charing on his debut for new connections, but did manage to follow that up with a superb performance at Doncaster when just getting caught by Dolphin Square late on. He beat Le Breuil by further than Dubai Quest did at Wetherby so on the Doncaster run you have to give him some sort of chance, but that effort does stick out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form and I would be a bit surprised if he was capable of reaching the frame.   Don Bersy - In 2020 he refused to race in a point and then at Ludlow. He then went back pointing and did win on his first start, but then he was reluctant to race and downed tools at the 2nd. He's not been seen this season and even if he did decide to go with the others I couldn't fancy him at all.   Dubai Quest - Won 7 on the bounce in points and hunter chases after falling at Larkhill on his first start over here for the Ellis'. He is a very progressive horse and clearly you have to have something about you to win 7 straight. He's had two starts this season to get him prepped for this. I was at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas to see him win a Ladies Open and it was a very strong contest and will probably be the hottest Ladies Open we see all season. He beat Tango De Juilley that day and some people reckon if you swapped the jockeys around you would have had a different result and it's certainly true that Gina was more vigorous in the finish than the inexperienced jockey on the 2nd, but the 2nd had set a strong gallop and I'm not sure he would have had too much left anyway. Whichever side of the fence you are on it was still a very good return. He then went to Wetherby where he again showed off the engine he has by winning well from Le Breuil. Obviously you would have like that horse to have done better at Doncaster next time to frank the form, but he looked to have plenty in hand at the finish. I think he has a really good chance of giving Gina a first win in the race, but I have one big issue and that is his jumping. When he won at Fakenham last season he made a really bad mistake which caused Gina's sister Bridget to lose her irons. He wasn't completely foot perfect at Chaddesley and although he never looked like falling at Wetherby I thought his jumping left a lot to be desired at times. I'd be amazed if he gets round Cheltenham without making errors so then it boils down to how much those mistakes harm his chances. I think he's good enough to win, but if he was mine I would have given him more experience over rules fences in preparation for this and I just wonder if his jumping will stop him from winning.   Fumet D'Oudaires - Both the Ellis runners are around the same price, but for me this horse is very much the second string. Don't get me wrong he has been one of the best buys in a long time given they paid just £800 for him and he's won 8 out of 10 starts including 2 hunter chases at Leicester and Cheltenham. The Cheltenham win came over 2m at the hunter chase night and he then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup where he was beaten nearly 3L by Vaucelet. My feeling was he was outstayed that night and if you have enough pace to win over 2m round here I also have doubts about having enough stamina to win this. He's had a couple of runs at Horseheath this season and won both although he made hard work of beating one other finisher last time. I certainly don't blame connections for having a go at this contest, but he could have a better chance in future years as he might stay better then.   It Came To Pass - The impressive 2020 winner was a well beaten 7th last year although he did have a bit of a rushed preparation so you can understand why he wasn't at the same level. He was a well beaten 5th behind Bob And Co at Punchestown after that. This season he's just been kept pointing having had 4 starts winning his penultimate one. He was well beaten though when falling last time and I'd be slightly surprised if he was able to beat last year's 7th let alone regain his crown.   Lord Schnitzel - He ran at the Festival in 2020 in the handicap novices' chase which doesn't exist anymore and he didn't jump well when pulling up. What he has been though is in good form since going pointing this season. He was 2nd in his first point, but then won 3 before landing a Maiden Hunter Chase in very easy style at Limerick over Christmas. He was then surprisingly beaten in a point at the start of February at 1/2 before winning at the end of the month at 1/8. We don't know if he is going to stay and this will easily be the toughest race he has been in for some time. The other concern is the ground as his best form has been on testing ground. His trainer mentioned he might go for Aintree rather than Cheltenham and that would look to be the better option for me.   Mighty Stowaway - Was 6th in this last year and then 10th at Aintree. This season he dead heated with Winged Leader on his seasonal return in November, but I don't think he's shown as much progression as that horse since then. He's been kept busy as well as he's had 5 more starts. He did manage to win a couple, but last time he was very disappointing when pulling up. He's not really looked good enough to be capable of winning this and nothing he has done this season has changed my mind on that front.   Monbeg Chit Chat - The bare form of his two wins in points this season is nothing to write home about at all. The winning time at Alnwick last time was good, but the 2nd has been stuffed twice since and was well behind Overworkdunderpaid the time before. On the plus side he won over course and distance on hunter chase night last season and he then went on to finish a very respectable 3rd in the Stratford Foxhunters. He got better as the season went on last year so there is hope that he will improve again here. It's hard to see him being good enough to win, but he does look capable of a very respectable effort.   Overworkdunderpaid - On ratings he has little chance in this given the highest mark he won off when under rules before was 113, but based on his pointing and hunter chase run at Haydock he looks an improved horse. He unseated on his first start at Charing, but then was really impressive at Alnwick in December clocking a very fast time and a high pace rating in point to point form book. Given then fact he was carrying 12-10 it was even more impressive that the time was so good. He won at the same venue in January again doing it well. I've no idea why his jockey didn't make it more of a stamina test at Haydock because he clearly stays very well and Cousin Pascal did him for pace whilst Bob And Co just pipped him on the line for 2nd. 3m2f looks much more suitable especially given it is likely to be a decent pace. Kelly Morgan trained him in points, but he has gone back to Laura for hunter chases and the yard have obviously been doing very well in recent weeks. The one issue with him is he does seem to be at his best on testing ground and it doesn't look like he is going to get that on Friday. Even so for me he makes the most appeal of those at big prices.   Point The Way - Won a couple of hunter chases at Perth and Kelso last season although they weren't exactly strong affairs. He was a 20L 4th to Overworkdunderpaid on his seasonal return, but he has won both races since including over 3m4f at Charm Park last weekend. He can probably run well enough, but he looks unlikely to have the class to trouble the judge here.   Pont Aven - Connections paid £30k for him last year after he left Willie Mullins and after falling on his seasonal debut he was had two very comfortable success' since then. His jockey thought he would have won at Horseheath, but I thought his fall looked a bit of a tired one and I wasn't as certain as his jockey was. After that he has bolted up in an easy race at Higham and won just as easily at Ludlow in a hunter chase. Neither event was particularly strong but he couldn't have been more impressive. There are two concerns for me though. The first has to be the trip. I know he won over 3m in his younger days, but Mullins kept him to 2m4f and shorter after that so he obviously thought that was his best trip. You can't get two flatter tracks than Higham and Ludlow so this test will be totally different. Horseheath is actually more like Cheltenham so if he had stayed on his feet there it would have told us more. Speaking of staying on his feet his jumping has to be a concern as well. He often made mistakes in Ireland and he wasn't always great at Ludlow. He clearly has an engine, but will that engine see him stay 3m2f round Cheltenham? I'm not so sure myself.   Premier Magic - The Bradley Gibbs super-sub as he was due to miss Cheltenham and head to Aintree whilst his stablemate Highway Jewel was set to run here, but she has had a setback so plans have been reversed. He was 3rd behind two of these in the John Corbet Cup, but I don't think he was suited by the slow pace round a sharp track and this test ought to be more suitable. I do think he has also improved this season and he beat Porlock Bay on his seasonal return at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. Now I suspect Premier Magic might have been nearer peak fitness, but his trainer did say after the race that he thought he had improved since last season. He ran at Milborne St Andrew last time and had a very easy success. The main concern is probably the fact that he wasn't originally going to be running in the race, but that doesn't mean he isn't capable of a big run and I certainly think he will do the best of the John Corbett Cup trio.   Rewritetherules - Has shown very little in two starts for his new connections having been a useful enough horse in Ireland. Impossible to fancy.   Senor Lombardy - Was trained by Brian Harding last season, but is now running in his wife's name Kelly. The 2nd to The Galloping Bear at Carlisle last March is obviously looking a very strong piece of form although I wouldn't want to be taking that at face value as The Galloping Bear has improved since then. This year he's been kept pointing and was impressive in his two wins at Alnwick whilst finishing 2nd at 4/9 in between them. He is certainly capable of winning a hunter chase, but I think this is more about giving connections a day and anything better than mid-division would be a very good effort.   Winged Leader - Given he is only 8 he has had a lot of racing and has already run in 14 hunter chases. He was 2nd in the 2019 John Corbett Cup and won his first hunter chase 2 years ago at Down Royal. He then couldn't get his head in front under rules. He was behind Billaway three times last season and then fell at Thurles when in with a winning chance at the last. There were a couple of 2nds before he finally won again at Tramore in April. He followed that up with a win at Listowel in June. He's found winning points easier and he's 9 from 15 there which includes a dead heat with Mighty Stowaway on his seasonal return. His only other run this season was the 12L victory over Billaway at Thurles which he fully deserved on the day, but as we know the 2nd wasn't fully fit. The big question is has he really improved enough to be a better horse than Billway and thus have a chance of winning this, or was it just a case of he benefitted by a weakened rival the last day because the rest of his form wouldn't be good enough to win this. My feeling is the latter and as much as I could understand if you do think the former and thus think he is value to beat him again, for me I have to take him on.   Zamparelli - Won a Ludlow hunter chase last season, but after a promising enough effort on his return at Larkhill he was well beaten back at Ludlow the next time. He was 2nd to Southfield Theatre last time back at Larkhill which was a step back in the right direction, but is easily opposed in a race like this.

So final update before the entries close today. Dolphin Square was cut in the betting after he won at Doncaster, but he wont be running at Cheltenham. They ended up skipping Doncaster with Jett and instead head to Fontwell for an easier task. Whilst he did qualify for Cheltenham you have to say he was rather disappointing. Shantou Flyer is clearly a good horse still and capable of performing to a high level. Whilst I'm sure Sam didn't want to give Jett too hard a race with Cheltenham in mind, but he just look very laboured in finishing 2nd. He hit the front and I thought he was going to go on and win the race, but he seemed to not really want to go through with his effort and it allowed the winner to go back in front. I had Jett on my shortlist prior to Fontwell as that Doncaster effort looked really good, but it's hard to fancy him for the race after Sunday. Meanwhile Shantou Flyer will get a Cheltenham entry as a super sub in case something happens to Bob And Co. Certainly not a bad horse to have in reserve especially as he loves Cheltenham and if he did end up running in the race he would surely have place claims, but as for winning it I can't really see it. For me he's had better chances of winning this in the past and I don't see where the improvement would come from for him to go and win it.
Slightly surprisingly Pure Vision skipped Fontwell and instead runs at Leicester today, but that means he won't be going to Cheltenham in a couple of weeks as he isn't qualified. Maybe we will see him at Aintree instead.
Usually we don't see the entries until the day after they close so I will post them on here as soon as I see them.

Southend v Solihull Bit disappointed Southend didn't win for us on Tuesday, but I think it highlights that although they are in good form they have mainly been playing the lesser sides in the division. Solihull look primed to be the first team to beat Southend in 10 league games. They are in cracking form themselves and whilst the red card did change the game against Chesterfield last Saturday they were still impressive in beating them 3-2. They also should have beaten Wealdstone easier on Tuesday night. I make them favourites for this and I suspect they will go off as favourites.   Dorking v Maidstone Obviously a huge game at the top of National League South and a Dorking win would be great for us ante-post wise as Dorking would go very short for the title, having said that though I do think Maidstone are worth backing here. Both sides have bene in cracking form and I don't think there is a huge amount between the pair and thus at the prices I think Maidstone are worth backing.   Dulwich Hamlet v Braintree Dulwich have been struggling for a while now. I went to watch them against Eastbourne recently and wasn't overly impressed. They have won a couple of games since then, but they haven't been in great form and look opposable here. Braintree haven't lost in 7 now and their last defeat was to Dorking. Now they have drawn 4 of those games and they haven't always scored as many as they should, but they look a value play here given how both sides are playing.   Ebbsfleet v Eastbourne The home side were very disappointing for us last week losing 4-2 to a Havant side who have been struggling for wins especially at home. Indeed that was Havant's first win in 9 games. Ebbsfleet have blown all chances of a title bid having only won twice in their last 7 games and they were against Hampton and St Albans which doesn't really add up to much. Eastbourne meanwhile have only lost twice in their last 10 and one of those was 3-2 to Maidstone. I would still make the home side favourites, but Eastbourne are too big a price to gain 3 points here.   Alfreton v Curzon Ashton Not really sure what has happened to Alfreton, but they look a shadow of the side they were earlier in the season. Granted they had the best chance against Gloucester on Tuesday, but otherwise there was very little quality on show. They have only managed a couple of wins in their last 10 games. Curzon are unbeaten in their last 5 games and put 3 past Hereford on Tuesday night. They have had a cracking season to be still in the play-off hunt and they look a big price to me here.   Boston v Kettering A fair bit is riding on this game given Paul Cox left Kettering to become Boston manager earlier in the season. Ian Culverhouse has taken over at Kettering and despite sometimes being light player wise they are unbeaten in 6 games now, showing some great fight along the way. I think the players will be determined to get one over their former manager here. Boston have only beaten Farsley and Chester in their last 10 games and whilst there have been signs of improvement it still isn't huge. Kettering for me have a decent chance of getting one over their former manager.   Darlington v Chorley I know Chorley have only lost 4 games all season in the league, but there have been signs of weakness recently. They lost 2-1 to Leamington in their last league game which was 2 weeks ago. Prior to that they had drawn at Farsley and they have only picked up 2 points in their last 10 games. Maybe some time off will help them get back on track, but they have conceded 9 goals in their last 4 games and Darlington are coming out of a poor run of form. They lost 4 on the bounce, but then beat Chester, drew with Gloucester and beat Fylde. They were a bit unlucky not to beat Gloucester as well as they had some good chances to take the lead in the first half. Don't get me wrong I still make Chorley favourites, but the home side are a spot of value.   Solihull 1pt @ 13/8 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Maidstone 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills go 5/2 and take up to 15/8) Braintree 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 9/4) Eastbourne 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone apart from 365 (take up to 11/4) Curzon 1pt @ 19/10 with everyone apart from Hills who are 2/1 (take up to 6/4) Kettering 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill (365 are 23/10 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 1pt @ 23/10 with everyone apart from BetVictor who go 12/5 and 365 who are only 2/1 (take up to 15/8)

Kings Lynn v Altrincham Kings Lynn were very good last Saturday in beating Weymouth 3-0 and they followed that up with a 0-0 draw at Grimsby on Tuesday night and very few teams have left their with points this season. I can't believe they are such a big price for this given Altrincham haven't won in 12 league games now. They did show a bit of fight last week when coming from 2 down against Woking, but they have only scored 8 goals and conceded 28 in their last 10 matches. Kings Lynn still need a miracle to stay up, but really if they lose this then I think that will be game over because Altrincham are one of the teams they need to catch. I just don't think there is anywhere near as much between the two sides as the bookies have and the home win looks good value.   Woking v Southend This game is live on TV on Saturday and I couldn't believe what I was seeing when I saw the Southend price as I would have them favourites let alone the 12/5 they are. I was close to making it a max bet, but there are a couple of things which has reduced confidence. The first is Southend's away form as they haven't tended to be quite as good away as they have been at home, but having said that they have only lost to Notts County in their last 6 away matches. That defeat is actually their only loss in their last 10 league games and they have really improved of late. It was a top performance to beat Bromley on Tuesday night as well. I put Woking up as being over priced for the title at the start of the season and it was looking like a decent shout early on as they beat some good teams like Chesterfield. It's been mostly poor since the first couple of months though and they have really struggled for victories. As mentioned above they blew a 2 goal lead against an out of form Altrincham last week and in their last 10 games they have only beaten Dover and Wealdstone. What I will say is they have been creating chances but they just aren't taking them. There is in the back of my mind though that Woking will go and start scoring at some stage and again it just lessens confidence slightly. Even so in my view we are getting huge value about an away win.   Farsley Celtic v Gloucester City (National League North) This is a huge game at the bottom of the table and as much as I hope Gloucester don't lose I have to back the home side. God knows how we are favourites for this game as we have only won once away from home all season and even then it was a fortunate win. We still can't score goals and although we created a little more against Brackley last Saturday it really should have been more than 1-0. Clearly Farsley are no Brackley, but after another change of manager they look to have improved again. They pushed Brackley close in a 3-2 defeat and then last Saturday drew 3-3 against Chorley which was a massive point. That is 5 goals in 2 games and Gloucester have only managed that in their last 10 matches. With home advantage Farsley should be favourites here so they are a value bet.   Walton Casuals v Beaconsfield (Southern Premier League South) The away side look a big price to me here as they have been in good form of late. They have lost twice in their last 6 games but they were by 1 goal against Taunton and Weston who are two of the best sides in the division at the moment, especially Taunton. Then last Saturday they beat Harrow 6-1. Walton have only lost one of their last 5 and did manage a draw against Farnborough, but in their last two games they have only managed draws against Wimborne and Merthyr who are the bottom two sides in the league. I think Beaconsfield have a fair chance of picking up another 3 points here.   York v Morpeth (FA Trophy) Morpeth have done us well in the Trophy this season and the 5/1 for them to win at York looks too big. Their superb run of form has continued since the last round and although they did lose last Saturday they bounced straight back to beat South Shields 1-0 on Tuesday. York have improved since they lost 3-0 to Kidderminster and Bradford and they got their revenge on the latter on Wednesday night when beating them 4-2. Even so this will be a tough game for them and I wouldn't have the away side at such a big price.   Kings Lynn 2pts@ 12/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/4 and Bet365 are 13/5) Southend 4pts @ 11/5 with William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power, Coral, Ladbrokes and Skybet (take up to 11/8 and Bet365 are 12/5) Farsley 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill (take up to 11/8) Beaconsfield 1pt @ 2/1 with Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Morpeth 1pt @ 5/1 with William Hill, Betfred and Betfair (take up to 3/1 and Skybet are 11/2)

Time for the latest round up and I will start with the Hunter Chase at Wetherby on Saturday which saw Dubai Quest continue the picket fence and make it 7 on the bounce. He's beaten a decent field and I think Le Breuil is a solid yardstick back in 2nd. We also are able to do a time comparison with Ahoy Senor with both races over the same distance. Not surprisingly Dubai Quest was slower, but it was only 9 seconds and Dubai Quest was carrying 12-2 compared with Ahoy Senor who carried just 11-5. For me that is suggests Dubai Quest has put in a very good performance. What he didn't always do though was jump well and that is obviously a concern regarding Cheltenham as he is unlikely to get away with a similar jumping display their. What I will say though is he seemed to jump better at the business end of the race and maybe he will be better in a race run at a strong gallop. At this stage though he is on my shortlist of possible winners. He was as big as 25/1 before Wetherby and is now as short as 10/1, but Bet365 are biggest at 16/1. I thought Le Breuil ran a perfectly good race in 2nd, but quite why 365 also have him at 16/1 I don't know as I can't see him reversing the form. He also isn't qualified yet and would need to finish 1st or 2nd in another hunter chase by the end of the month and I can see him turning up at Fontwell for the final chance to qualify. Law Of Gold was a big disappointment and was never travelling. Connections said they wouldn't run him at Cheltenham again after he ran poorly in the race last year and unless they have had a change of heart I can't see him lining up. Also if they were considering it Saturday might have put them off. He is 50/1 with 365.
365 have also stuck Solider Of Love in the betting at 33/1 but he was another Nicholls horse to disappoint of late and he would have to improve massively to be a realistic contender here. What it did at least do is give him one of his qualifying runs for the race. Nicholls' Alcala also disappointed at Wincanton when West Approach won the match race. He is 16/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and still needs to qualify, but you would imagine connections will be looking to do so to give Freddie a ride in the race. He would be an unlikely winner for me at this stage though and it is hard to know how much he actually achieved at Wincanton given his rival didn't run his race. It did though look an improvement on his Warwick effort.
The previous Saturday the Ellis team had another Cheltenham contender win in the shape of Fumet d'Oudairies at Horseheath. There were only 3 runners and only one other horse finished, but he made hard work of winning the race and the time wasn't anything special. I would be very surprised if Gina didn't chose Dubai Quest over him at Cheltenham and he looks too short at 12/1-16/1. The day after that last year's 4th Latenightpass ran at Alnwick and fell at the last when still a length in front. As mentioned in the first post though the Ellis team are set to send him just to Aintree this season and his one horse near the head of the market who you can more than likely say wont run. Red Indian won the race in the end and it was a decent effort as was his 3rd to Dubai Quest 1st up. He's not in the betting, but he might well run in the race.
Another yard who might have more than one runner is the Gibbs stable and Premier Magic won his 2nd race of the season just over a week ago at Milborne St Andrew. The final time was slow, but the final circuit time was quick and although he didn't have much to beat he did do it impressively. Connections weren't saying much about Cheltenham plans after the race so it is hard to know if they will run both him and Highway Jewel or not. His price ranges from 12/1-16/1 and although I would fancy his stablemate more at this stage I do think he has improved this season.
On Sunday in Ireland Lord Schnitzel was back in action in a point, but he was beaten by 12yo Na Trachtalia Abu and that form is nowhere near good enough for this.
I missed Mighty Stowaway winning on the 16th January in my previous update and he bolted up in an impressive performance. Even so it still hasn't changed my mind on him doing well to improve on his 6th in this last year. 
Speaking of Mighty Stowaway he is one of 10 entered in the main prep hunter chase in Ireland at Naas on Saturday. Billaway, Cloudy Tuesday, Er Dancer and Good Bye Same are also entered.
Porlock Bay has been entered all over the place in the last couple of weeks and could go at Bangor on Friday.

Stockport v Dover You don't need me to tell you that this should be a home win, but I think there is some value in backing the -2 and -3 handicaps. I think Stockport will go onto win the league although they are set to host Chesterfield on Tuesday night which is a huge game. They just look so good at the moment though that it is hard to see any of the others in contention being able to match them. They have only lost one of their last 10 and have scored 33 goals and conceded just 5 in that spell. The one slight concern is they might ease off when the game is won with that Chesterfield match in mind, but I just don't see how Dover wont be massively outclassed in this game and odds against Stockport beating them by at least 3 goals looks a big price to me.   Curzon Ashton v AFC Telford (National League North) The home side are more than capable of winning this and they do come here off the back of a win against Fylde last week, but Telford are starting to go through the gears now under their new manager and they have had a couple of very impressive wins over Darlington and BPA scoring 8 goals and conceding 0. This game has been priced up on league positions and I certainly think Telford have been under estimated by the bookies here.   Needham Market v Royston (Southern League Central) The home side are in superb form at the moment and as well as being in the FA Trophy still they are also making a bid for the play-offs. They have only lost 2 of their last 10 league games and I think they ought to be odds on to win this. Royston seem to have run out of steam and their 3 wins in their last 10 games have come against Redditch, Nuneaton and Biggleswade which isn't exactly great. They are also the only team Tamworth have beaten in a long time.    Cheshunt v Leatherhead (Isthmian League) This game is a bit like the Curzon v Telford one in that Cheshunt are a decent enough side and Leatherhead are an improving side at the bottom of the league. The problem Cheshunt have had though is they have totally lost their form of late and have only picked up 1 point in their last 5 league games. It's odd because the last league game they won was against 2nd in the table Enfield and they also beat St Albans 3-0 in the FA Trophy. They face Stockport next week which is clearly a big game for them and they don't really have anything to play for in the league anymore. Leatherhead have again improved for a new manager and player additions and as much as Cheshunt are the right favourites with Leatherhead unbeaten in 3 they look capable of getting a crucial 3 points.   Stockport -2 3pts @ 11/10 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet and William Hill (take up to 4/6) Stockport -3 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill (take up to 9/4) AFC Telford 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred (16/5 available with Hills but will settle at 3/1 and take up to 2/1) Needham Market 3pts @ 5/4 with William Hill, Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 4/6) Leatherhead 1pt @ 16/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4)  

Time for the 2nd update for the season and the obvious place to start is with the Thurles hunter chase which saw Billaway make his seasonal debut. I wondered if he'd had a setback in the opening post and I was right to think that with Willie Mullins confirming in his Sporting Life column that the horse would need the run after having suffered a setback. When you add into the fact that he doesn't have a great first time out record then I think the run was perfectly respectable. It's not unusual for him to come off the bridle so that doesn't bother me and his jumping isn't always foot perfect either so again that wasn't a huge surprise. Once he couldn't win the race Patrick wasn't overly hard on him and just made sure that he finished 2nd. He was pushed out to 6/1 after the race which surprised me as I reckon we will see a much improved performance next time out now he has got this opening run under his belt.
Winged Leader was the winner of the race and he has been cut from 20/1 into 8/1 2nd favourite for Cheltenham. It was a good front running performance and his trainer said he would be entered for Cheltenham although he thinks he might be more one for Aintree. In my first piece I rubbished his chances for Cheltenham, but regardless of the 2nd needing the run it was clearly an improved performance from his previous form. At this stage though I still don't rate him as a possible winner of this race and I would back Billaway to reverse the form as he clearly had a fitness edge over him on Sunday. Its All Guesswork and Stand Up And Fight were 3rd and 4th and are in some bookies prices, but neither look likely winners.
I shall stay in Ireland and look at another Willie Mullins horse called Good Bye Sam. When I was looking through the odds I thought who on earth is this horse at 20/1 in the betting as I had never heard of him. Turns out he had a few runs in France without winning the last of which was in October 2020. Since then he has gone to the Mullins yard and on the 15th January he finished 2nd in a maiden point. Clearly someone must have asked around for a price because otherwise the bookies wouldn't have priced him up. I know he's a great trainer, but it would be some feat to even get him qualified for Cheltenham let alone for him to be a possible winner of the race.
At Turtulla on January 16th Aloneamongmillions made a winning seasonal debut. He was quite high in the betting for this race last year before finishing 3rd at Down Royal and then disappointing at Naas a year ago. This was his first run since and it was good to see him get back to winning ways. He's not in the betting at the moment and I don't know if this is the target, but he ought to be in the betting. He had Er Dancer 3L back in 2nd and Killultagh Vic was well beaten in 4th. Both of those 2 are in the betting, but the latter has little chance of qualifying now.
With hunter chases starting back up this side of the Irish Sea we will start to see who the leading candidates will be for the British although I doubt anything from the first two will trouble the judge at Cheltenham and that is even if they run. Hogan's Height won well at Ludlow under a good Gina Andrews ride, but his trainer didn't sound like this race was the target although if he qualified his owners might well fancy a runner at the Festival. He is 33/1 and to me that represents the sort of chance he would have.
At Warwick we saw some disappointing efforts especially from Kimberlite Candy, but Reikers Island was a good winner under a superb front running ride. He has been put in at 25/1, but his trainer has said that Aintree is his target as his owner wants to ride him over the National fences.
On Sunday Highway Jewel made a winning seasonal appearance at Chipley Park in a Mixed Open. It was only a 3 runner race, but her two opponents had already both won this season so she wasn't beating no hopers and they both had race fitness on their side. She made all and put the race to bed in impressive style at 3 out. Understandably she got a bit tired on the run-in, but she clocked by far the quickest time on the card despite being eased off late on. If she had won under Rules then her price would have shortened, but because it was a point she was unchanged at a general 20/1. I wouldn't mind seeing her get some more experience in a Hunter Chase pre Cheltenham, but she certainly looks in good nick at the price is a fair one.
Last year's winner Porlock Bay has a hunter chase entry at Hereford on Monday and a point entry at Milborne St Andrew the day before so it looks like we might well see him in action in the next few days.
 

Maidenhead v Halifax (National League) The home side have a very good record against the top sides as they did last season and they proved that again on Tuesday night when becoming just the 2nd side to beat Chesterfield in the league this season. They were good value for the win and having beaten Halifax on the opening day of the season they are worth a play at landing the double.   Gloucester v Southport (National League North) I have to oppose my side again we just aren't creating much at all and although we have been more solid at home, Southport have been creating plenty of chances of late and I think they are the toughest side that Gloucester have hosted for a while. The prices are all wrong and I would make Southport favourites.   Kidderminster v York (National League North) I just get the feeling Kidderminster are running on fumes at the moment and they created very little in Tuesday night's defeat at Hereford. York on the other hand have had very little football and this will just be their 2nd league game since December 11th and their first this year. They won in the FA Trophy last week over Slough and they look value here with the fresher legs.   Hungerford v Chelmsford (National League South) The home side seem to have lost their way a little and Chelmsford are still creating a fair few chances, although they do sometimes have a problem in actually putting them away. They are clearly playing well though and look a spot of value here.   Morpeth v Buxton (Northern Premier) The home side did us a great turn in the Trophy last week and I fancy them again at big odds to beat Buxton who really seem to have lost their way recently. The 3-3 draw against Warrington last week was their only point in their last 5 games and as we know Morpeth are in really good form at the moment. Hopefully they can keep the momentum going.   Maidenhead 1pt @ 7/2 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 9/4) Southport 2pts @ 19/10 with Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill and Coral (take up to 5/4) York 1pt @ 17/5 with William Hill and Coral (take up to 9/4) Chelmsford 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Morpeth 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, Betfred and Betfair (take up to 7/4)   Other bets (all National League South) Eastbourne to beat Bath 1pt @ 11/5 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Dorking to beat Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 11/8)Hemel Hempstead to beat Tonbridge Angels 1pt @ 23/10 with William Hill (take up to 7/4)

The first race of the 2022 hunter chase season as in interesting affair, but from a punting point of view it looks tricky.
  When I had a first glance over the final entries on Tuesday my initial thinking was that Another Venture could be worth a bet. What I wasn't expecting though was for him to be favourite for the race. On balance I think he has the best recent form over this sort of trip when he won over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark of 135. After that he fell at Warwick and then pulled up in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. New connections paid £20k for him in May which the jockey being Nicky Henderson's assistant. I suspect that George is probably the unofficial trainer as well. He made a solid enough start at the Open Meeting in November when finishing 3rd over 3m1f. Granted he was 16L behind the winner and a faller at the last helped him finish 3rd but he got an RPR of 129 so it was a good effort. I'd imagine they are trying to get him qualified for Cheltenham and I think he has claims here.   Hogan's Height won the 2019 Grand Sefton, but it is fair to say that he hasn't really achieved very much since. Clearly they have been in better races than this though. He was miles behind Tiger Roll in 6th at Cheltenham and then 12th behind Minella Times at Aintree for example. The 6th in this season's Grand Sefton was OK although he didn't seem to be enjoying himself at all in the Becher last time. The booking of Gina is obviously a big plus and in an easier race it might just see him bounce back to form, but I would have liked to see him perform better than he has been so he wouldn't be for me here.   I mention that Another Venture has the best recent form over this sort of trip, because the best recent form in my view is Not That Fuisse as he was beaten a neck in a Listed Race at Ayr in April and prior to that he was 5th in the Grand Annual. The 4th at Sandown a week after the Ayr race was decent as well. The problem is those races were over 2m and 2m4f and we have no idea if he will stay this far. The other thing to consider is that he had an irregular heartbeat after pulling up at Chepstow in October. I have just had a look at what Dan Skelton said about him in his Racing Post stable tour back in November and he said that he has his heart right now. He also mentioned that he think there's still a big day in him although it might not be until the spring on good ground. Does make me wonder why he has ended up going hunter chasing, but Dan has proven he's very good at targeting his horses at races and maybe he is looking at Aintree with him. On paper I think he is probably the best horse in the race, but I just wonder if the combination of trip and ground might just stop him from winning this.   After those 3 in the betting we get to the horses who have been pointing and hunter chasing already. Zamparelli has proven himself to be a good solid horse in hunter chases and beat Bletchley Castle by 9L here in March over 2m4f. He then fell at Cheltenham before finishing a fast finishing 2nd in the only handicap hunter chase of the season at Stratford. He found himself outpaced that day after they went a hell of a gallop and I think a step up in trip under rules might help him especially as he has won a couple of times over the trip and he was strong in the finish when he won here. The comeback run at Larkhill in December was decent enough as he tends to need the run and he did pull up on his seasonal return last term which backs up that point. If any of the 3 ahead of him in the betting run up to the best of their ability then I can't see him beating them, but as I have mentioned it is hardly as if any of them come here completely bombproof.    Ozzy Thomas' handicap form from last season would give him a chance in this, but he has gone to Scott Malson who also owns and rides him and I am not sure he is going to be running up to that level. This is the first horse Scott has trained and he has only ridden 1 winner in 41 rides in points. His 4th at Ffos Las in a point in November is nowhere near good enough to land this. He did run in a hunter chase at Fakenham just before racing stopped for Covid and he was given a shocking ride when coming last so I would ignore that. In theory a double figure price about him is too big, but I have big doubts about him being able to show the form he was showing for Henry Oliver last season so I will pass him over.   Haven't Time showed some useful form in points in the 2019 season, but he wasn't seen from March that year until November last year when he fell at the 11th. Impossible to know what sort of level he is capable of, given the time off and the face he is unexposed. What I will say is connections could have stuck to pointing with him and found an easier option. As much as I don't want to back him I am interested to see how he gets on with the future in mind.   Good to see Bletchley Castle back for another season as a 13yo. He will make the running as usual no doubt and does like it here having run well when 2nd on all 3 starts here last season. I've never really thought of him as a proper 3 miler though and that 2nd to Garde Ville over course and distance came in a 4 runner where the other 2 were big disappointments. I suspect he might well need the run as well.   I always respect anything Joe O'Shea runs as he is such a shrewd trainer as he showed with Cousin Pascal at Aintree last year. He was also entered in this race for the same owner as Envious Editor, but he is obviously being kept for another contest. He has already run 4 times this season, but has only actually completed on one of those occasions when 2nd at Ffos Las. Last time out he ran at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he travelled really well during the race, but emptied in the home straight and ended up pulling up. That was over 2m3f and he doesn't even look like he truly stays that far let alone 3m. Fair play to Joe if he gets him to even hit the frame, but on the evidence of his point runs and his runs for Gordon Elliott in Ireland I just can't see him lasting the distance.   The other 3 runners shouldn't really get involved in the finish.   Like I said at the start this is a tricky race from a punting point of view as we have horses rated in the 130s making their hunter chase debut, but with doubts to varying degrees about what sort of form they are still capable of. I think Hold That Fuisse is likely to be the best horse in the race, but I'm not sure today's conditions are going to see him perform to his peak. Another Venture could be the one of the 3 who finds this test the most suitable, but I probably want getting on for 3/1 about him before I would want to play as he isn't exactly bombproof and I don't really fancy Hogans Height. Zamparelli looks the most likely of the rest to run his race and I think he has a fair chance of at least hitting the frame because I would be surprised if all the front 3 ran to form and there has to be a chance none of them do. There will be better punting races I am sure this season, but at the current prices I think the bet is a small e/w one on Zamparelli.   Zamparelli 0.5pts e/w @ 15/2 with everyone except Bet365 and Skybet are 4 places (take up to 11/2)   I wrote the above last night and this morning Envious Editor has been the big market mover. Like I say in the preview though I just struggle to see him staying. Obviously his trainer has been known to pull of surprises before so if he did go and win I wouldn't be shocked but in this case I have to go with my eyes and the form in the book.

If you are new to reading this thread then a couple of years ago I decided to do a Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunter thread given all the various Cheltenham pieces never mention the contest. It has proved popular and it is back again as we build up to the race. It is later than usual this season for a couple of reasons. First of all bookies have been very slow to price the race up and secondly not too much has happened especially this side of the Irish sea.
To start with I have written about every horse who has been priced up so far and added a couple that aren’t, but that are being targeted at the race. Hopefully you will find this useful and as always I will update as and when.
Billaway – Not surprisingly the current favourite to finally get his head in front at Cheltenham and I have a feeling at this stage he might just well do it. Having said that his current price is no value and his nonappearance so far this season is a concern. He was entered in the opening Irish hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse, but didn’t run and then didn’t even get an entry at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Both those things make me think he is injured at the moment or at the very least recovering from an injury. As always with horses being aimed at this race we rarely hear anything about their well being and until we see him on a racecourse I wouldn’t be backing him.
Bob And Co – Obviously wont be seen until hunter chases start up in this country and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he followed the same route as last season when he won at Haydock prior to going to Cheltenham.
Porlock Bay – Last year’s winner wasn’t seen again after that success and he made his seasonal reappearance at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He finished 2nd to Premier Magic that day beaten a length in the end, but Will Biddick said after the race that he left plenty to work on and that he was working back from Cheltenham. The fact he was beaten doesn’t make me think that he couldn’t hold on to his crown in March as I do think he will improve a lot for race. Reading between the lines of what Will said after the race he clearly thought Porlock Bay would beat Premier Magic should they take each other on again and I agree with him. I wouldn’t want to back him yet, but at the same time I would have him in single figures rather than the 12/1 he is with Bet365. He looks set to run again this month in either a hunter chase or a point as his final prep for Cheltenham. Premier Magic isn’t priced up yet, but it did sound like he would be going to Cheltenham as well. He’s a good horse and Bradley Gibbs mentioned he had improved from last season. I do think he was the fitter horse at Chaddesley rather than being the better horse.
Latenightpass – As short as 8/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, but connections have said they will skip Cheltenham and aim him at Aintree instead which seems sensible and they have two other horses to target at the race anyway.
Staker Wallace – 4th and 3rd in the last two runnings and could still have improvement to come. Has yet to be seen so far this season. Paddy Power and Betfair go 7s which is closer to the price I would have him at rather than the 20/1 Unibet have put him in at.
Mighty Stowaway – Already run 7 times between October and the end of December and he’s won 2 points and head heated in another. He was 3rd behind Vaucelet at Fairyhouse in November and it is hard to see on what he has shown so far this season how he is going to improve on his well beaten 6th at Cheltenham last year.
Lord Schnitzel – Was pulled up at the 2020 Festival in the Novice Handicap Chase off 139 and didn’t so a great deal after that. He change trainers last summer and started off by finishing 5th in a Kilbeggan maiden hurdle, before finishing 2nd in his 1st point in September. Since then he has thrived as he won 3 points on the bounce before trouncing his rivals in a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas. That was an impressive performance and it will be interesting to see what he does in a stronger race, but his trainer said after the race that they may skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead.
Winged Leader – Surprised to see him in the beating to be honest as I’d be surprised if he ran, but dead heated with Mighty Stowaway in his only run so far this season. Just struggle to see how he would find the improvement needed to play a part if he did travel.
It Came To Pass – Was a well beaten 7th last year after beating Billaway by 10L in 2020. Has run in 3 points this season so far and after being stuffed in the first of them finished a close 2nd next time before beating Killultagh Vic by a couple of lengths on Sunday. For a novice riders race it was a decent heat, but at this stage I find it hard to see him getting close to his 2020 effort.
Killultagh Vic – Speaking of Killultagh Vic he is also priced up and it was back in 2015 that he landed the Martin Pipe. Obviously has the back class, but he’s now 13 and given he’s been beaten in 2 points this season as well as one last season he will probably do well to qualify for the race let alone win it.
Cloudy Tuesday – Is unexposed and easily won a hunter chase at Thurles last March, before pulling up at Fairyhouse. This season he beat It Came To Pass first up, but was then 2nd to Mighty Stowaway last month and he would need to find improvement to play a part at Cheltenham.
Another Venture – Nicky Henderson doesn’t send too many hunter chasing, but he mentioned that this horse had been purchased to go hunter chasing under his assistant George Daly. George rode him at Cheltenham at the November meeting and ran well enough to finish 3rd albeit 16L behind the winner. In all honestly I think the only reason he has been priced up is because of who he is trained by as his previous rules form wouldn’t be good enough to win this, but he does look capable of winning hunter chases during the season.
Vaucelet – Had Premier Magic and Fumet d’Oudairies behind him win when landing the John Corbet Cup at Stratford last season and he did it will that day on only his 5th start. He returned this term to win a point by 30L before landing the first hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse. I thought he still looked green that day and it made me think that this season’s Cheltenham Festival might be a year to soon for him. He then went to Down Royal on Boxing Day in a race he really ought to have been good enough to win, but he was only 3rd in the end. He was making hard work of it, but coming to 2 out I thought he was going to win given how well he stays. I was disappointed that he didn’t keep finding at that point and that he faded into 3rd. Some might say that the trip was too short, but for me the trip didn’t get him beat. It will be interesting to see what he does next time, but if he were mine I wouldn’t send him to Cheltenham this season and I think they would be better allowing him some more time. Dorking Cock won that Down Royal contest and he got up to a rating of 129 when trained over here by Tom Lacey. He was a surprise winner at Down Royal and he wouldn’t be good enough for this based on what he had done previously, but he’s only had 17 starts so maybe there is more to come. He’s not in the betting at the moment, but the 2nd home Er Dancer is. He had won a couple of points prior to Down Royal and it does seem like he’s found some improvement this season. He ran like he needed further and could possibly be interesting if the improvement continues.
Fumet d’Oudairies – An incredible buy at just £800 given he is 5 from 6 in points and he has won a couple of hunter chases. I thought he was impressive at Leicester and Cheltenham although they were over 2m4f and 2m respectively and he was only 2nd to Vaucelet at Stratford and that would lead me to think he might struggle to stay in this. He returned on New Years Eve where he had a very easy task at Horseheath under his new jockey Gina Andrews as her brother has now gone pro. I’d want to see him prove he can stay this far under rules and Gina is likely to have a tricky choice to make as the yard have another contender.
Dubai Quest – That other horse is Dubai Quest and at this stage I would favour him over his stablemate. Apart from when he fell on his debut for the yard he has won his other 6 starts for them including bolting up in a hunter chase at Fakenham last February. His only other start last season was a point win at Maisemore. This season he returned in what will probably be the hottest Ladies Open we see all season at Chaddesley Corbett which he won well beating Tango de Juilley and Red Indian. I think it’s seriously good form and connections suggested the hunter chase at Wetherby next month would be used as his Cheltenham prep. He’s not priced up yet, but he ought to be.
Highway Jewel – You may remember that I tipped her up at 66/1 last year only for the trainer to forget to enter her! She has been put in the betting at 20/1 with Bet365 this time around and she has yet to run this season. I think she is better than her stablemate Premier Magic and she would be my pick of the Gibbs runners. I can’t wait to see her back in action.

I think it is going to be hard to be bullish about anything whilst Covid is disrupting football so much. I'm hoping that clubs are more likely to get out of league games than they were FA Trophy matches as there were some teams who kept Covid issues very quiet with Enfield only managed two subs against Eastleigh for example. The other issue we are going to have is that training will have been disrupted with those who have had Covid regardless of how ill they were. 
I have 8 bets over Sunday and Monday.
 
Aldershot v Woking
I'm always slightly wary of getting involved in a derby match especially one that is as big as this, but Woking have been off the boil for a while now and they couldn't even beat an understrength Yeovil side in the FA Trophy last week. Aldershot meanwhile have won 4 out of their last 5 in the league and although they were a bit fortunate to overcome Kingstonian in the Trophy last week it did at least keep the good run going. There isn't a huge amount in the price but I think there is enough to warrant a bet on the home side.
 
Torquay v Yeovil
I still don't really know how Torquay managed to beat Stockport in their last league game, but what I will say is they do seem to have stepped up their performances against the better sides in the division. This was backed up by the fact they went to Tonbridge and lost 2-1 in the FA Trophy despite the fact the victors had a weakened team out. As mentioned above Yeovil came from a goal down to beat Woking, in the league they are unbeaten in 7 and of course they have the FA Cup 3rd Round to look forward to. They haven't always been the best side in those games, but they keep getting results and I certainly think they are too big a price here as there isn't much between these two at all.
 
AFC Telford v Chester (National League North)
Steve Watson was announced as the new Chester manager on Thursday and I think he can get 3 points in his first match in charge. For me they are a better side than their hosts on paper and Telford haven't really improved for their new manager. They had a very winnable game at home to Guiesley on Tuesday and yet they were pretty poor in a 1-0 defeat. I'd make Chester slight favourites here so there is value in the price.
 
Curzon Ashton v Southport (National League North)
To be fair to the home side they are proving hard to beat having drawn 5 of their last 9 league games, but they have only won once in that spell, although it was against Fylde. As I wrote on Tuesday ahead of the called off game against Kettering, Southport are flying at the moment and although not as big value as they were on Tuesday they are value again to pick up another 3 points.
 
Chelmsford v Braintree (National League South)
An Essex derby between two of the poorer sides in the division, but there are certainly more signs of life in the away side at the moment and I don't see why they are such a big price. No league wins in 9 now for the home side and they have only managed to draw against two other sides around them in the table, Tonbridge and Billericay, in their last 2 games. Braintree have only lost to Havant in their last 4 league games, managing a win against Tonbridge and two draws in the time. I suspect it will probably be a game low on quality, but Braintree should certainly be much closer to Chelmsford in the betting and hopefully they can edge it for us.
 
Horsham v Lewes (Isthmian Premier)
The Horsham manager is one of the bosses to have come out and said how badly Covid has affected his side, but they want to play the games as they are desperate for the season not to be null and voided which is completely understandable. He mentioned he might be able to have a training session on Thursday, but that would only have 6 or 7 players and the players haven't kicked a ball since they played a County Cup game against Hastings on the 14th. As good form as they are in that is hardly ideal going into a tough game against a good side. Lewes can throw in the odd stinker as mentioned in the preview below, but they are a side who should end up in the play-offs and they hold the advantage here for me given Horsham's issues.
 
Potters Bar v Hornchurch (Isthmian Premier)
Hornchurch have been in good form in recent weeks having lost just two of their last 8 league games. They were against Worthing and Enfield as well so two of the toughest games in the division. They have crept into the play-off picture and I think they will have too much for their hosts who have mainly struggled of late. Potters Bar did manage to beat Lewes 5-1 recently although that was a game to forget for their opponents and I think their other 3 of their last 4 games shows where they are actually at right now. They lost those 3 games and in their last 2 they have conceded 4 both times. One of those defeats was to bottom side Leatherhead as well so it is the away side who are value to win this.
 
Wimborne v Salisbury (Southern Premier South)
Another example of how hard it is at the moment to fully know what is happening at each club is the fact the Salisbury, who of course was one of the bets last week, only had 12 available players for the game against Poole. The fact they led twice and then drew 2-2 is of great credit, but I also think it shows how Poole aren't in a strong position at the moment. Wimborne did us a huge favourite on the other-hand last week when they beat Gosport and it showed how much they are improving at the moment. This is potentially a tricker game for them, but the bookies have not surprisingly not caught up with the fact that Wimborne have strengthened and they are worth backing again for me.
 
Aldershot 1pt @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 5/4)
Yeovil 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8)
Chester 1pt @ 8/5 with Betfred (take up to 11/8)
Southport 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4)
Braintree 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill (take up to 7/4)
Lewes 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (take up to 11/8)
Hornchurch 1pt @ 5/4 with William Hill and Bet365
Wimborne 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair

The Down Royal hunter chase on Boxing Day could well feature a leading Cheltenham contender in Vaucelet. You may remember he took the John Corbet Cup at Stratford back in May and although it was a small field he beat some decent horses. He has had two runs already this season and he has won them both landing a point before taking the first hunter chase of the season in Ireland at Fairyhouse. I thought he still looked pretty green and inexperienced at Fairyhouse which would concern me at this stage for Cheltenham, but he is clearly a progressive horse and I think there is more to come. Some people have wondered if the trip is on the short side for him, but to me he has a high cruising speed and there is every chance that this will be run at a much stronger pace than the Stratford race which should turn in it into a decent test at the trip. Therefore the trip doesn't concern me and I think it is his greenness which makes it look like he needs a test of stamina.   When I look at his opposition I am not actually all that worried about it. Stand Up and Fight won this race in 2018, but for me he certainly needs a test of stamina now and he struggled to get involved in this contest last year when a keeping on 4th behind Billaway. On The Sod is a stablemate of the favourite, but his hunter chase efforts away from Downpatrick have left a bit to be desired on the whole and to me he is likely to set the race up for Vaucelet. The main danger might end up being Gordon Elliott's Its All Guesswork who seems in much better form this season than last, judged on his two pointing runs. First off he beat a good horse in Solomn Grundy by 15l and then he unseated last time at 3 out when still going well out in front. If he brings that form to this contest then he is a possible winner and it is no surprise that he has been backed this morning. David Christie has a 3rd runner in Some Man who also would be in with a chance of hitting the frame.   These are unofficial tips and wont be included in the season stats, but I do think Vaucelet is a fair price at 7/4 as I think he should be around 5/4. Its All Guesswork has been well backed but I will be having a saver on him.

These are the 3 of my original tips that still offer value. I too am on Chorley although they are marginal value now.   Eastleigh v Aldershot On the face of it Aldershot look in good form, but I think a lot of that is down to the fact they have had the right fixtures to see them get points on the board. Their xG hasn't been overly impressive despite the fact they have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 games and I think they face their toughest test of this run of fixtures. They blew a 2 goal lead against Altrincham last week and Eastleigh's home form has been very impressive with them winning 5 times and losing just once. The loss came in their opening home game of the season as well and they beat Notts County in their last home game. They also went to Dagenham and won in their last fixture. The slight concern is they haven't played since the 23rd November so they maybe a bit rusty, but that is factored into the price for me and they look a solid bet.   Yeovil v Barnet A good win for Yeovil in the FA Cup last week over Stevenage which continued their strong run of form. They haven't lost in 7 league games now, but they have had a bit of fortune in that time and they did only draw against Dover recently. Barnet have done us a couple of good favours in the last few weeks and they look a big price to me here. They have deserved their last 3 wins over Torquay, Woking and Maidenhead and as I have mentioned Dean Brennan has transformed the sides fortunes. It's still a mystery as to why he hasn't been given the job on a full time basis. They are more than capable of picking up another 3 points here.   Double I am really keen on both Notts County and Stockport County winning on Saturday so I am going to stick them both in a double. Notts County host Southend and they still look way off the pace. Their xG in the win over Altrincham was only 0.49 and Maidenhead had a slightly higher one than them in the draw on Tuesday night. They were pretty poor in the 2nd half and I think they are going to really struggle to get anything from a trip to Meadow Lane. Stockport meanwhile travel to Torquay and if Stockport continue to play as they have been then they will gain another 3 points. They were unlucky to lose to Rotherham in the FA Cup last week and they just look a different side under Challinor. They are creating plenty of chances and scoring goals and Torquay are just nowhere near the levels that they were at last season. They did deserve to beat Weymouth last week, but they have been struggling against the better sides in the division and Stockport are certainly one of those.    Eastleigh 2pts @ 6/5 with William Hill (take up to 5/6) Barnet 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor (take up to 2/1) Notts County/Stockport County 2.5pts double @ 2.4/1 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 15/8)  

Dulwich Hamlet v Ebbsfleet 4th play 3rd here and I just can't have Dulwich as such big outsiders especially at home. Dulwich have only lost two of their last 10 and played well in a draw against Havant on Wednesday night. Ebbsfleet won 6 on the bounce, but have lost their last two in the league to Maidstone and Oxford City. I'd make Ebbsfleet marginal favourites still, but Dulwich are very much over priced in my view.   Kettering v Boston Boston's away form in the league has been pretty awful, but they managed to win at Brackley in the FA Trophy last week which was a good effort and I am going to give them a chance of beating a Kettering side who have been woeful in their last 2 games. Gloucester beat them easily 3-0 in the Trophy last Saturday and then Hereford beat them by the same score line in the league on Tuesday night. Boston have the better team and I think they should be a bit shorter in the betting.   Biggleswade v Alvechurch Alvechurch are having a great season and have only lost once in their last 10 league games. Last week they beat Peterborough Sports 1-0 and then on Tuesday night they thumped Stourbridge 5-1. They look true play-off contenders and they should be able to pick up another 3 points here. Biggleswade are a solid mid-table side, but they have only won once in their last 7 and I would have the away side shorter in the betting.   Dulwich Hamet 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Boston 1pt @ 13/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4) Alvechurch 3pts @ 7/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/10)

Salford v Chesterfield
Salford have done well in the league since they beat Dagenham in the previous round, but they were really lucky to beat Dagenham that night as Dagenham were the better side. That gives me hope that Chesterfield can beat their hosts on Sunday teatime. We all know how well Tshimanga is doing and if Dagenham had him in their side I think they would have beaten Salford as they lacked that clinical finisher. He could easily be the difference here and I just don't think the prices should be as far apart as they are.   Chesterfield 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365

AFC Sudbury v Colchester (Friday night BBC2) Colchester's recent record in the FA Cup is shocking as they haven't won a game in the competition for 5 seasons. Last year they were dumped out by Marine on penalties which was a fully deserved victory for the Step 4 side and I think there is a chance another Step 4 team could beat them here. Sudbury have only lost once in the league this season and although they lost 3-0 in the FA Trophy last weekend you can forgive them that given the importance of this game. Colchester aren't exactly doing well in the league either having won just 2 of their last 9 league matches. They did win last week although that was against bottom side Scunthorpe and I don't think they will fancy this at all especially given their recent FA Cup record.   Hayes & Yeading v Sutton Hayes are having an incredible season so far having won 9 of their 10 league games whilst drawing the other. They have scored 29 goals and conceded just 7 which is seriously impressive. They are still in the FA Trophy and the League Cup so they haven't lost in any competition yet. Obviously this is their toughest test to date, but they also have a good recent FA Cup record and pushed Carlisle very close in the 1st round last season. Sutton are having a solid 1st season in the Football League, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and the one victory was against bottom side Scunthorpe. Hayes are capable of causing an upset here.   Lincoln v Bowers & Pitsea It was a big surprise when Bowers & Pitsea managed to beat Aldershot to get through to the 1st Round as although Aldershot are not having a good season, neither are Bowers and they are 2 leagues below them. That means they are 4 steps below their hosts here and Lincoln should really win this with ease. Lincoln are in reasonable form in League 1 having only lost 1 in their last 6 and odds against them covering the -2 handicap looks well worth taking.   Yate v Yeovil Yate seem to be on fire at the moment. I thought they might be vulnerable on Tuesday against Salisbury, but they ended up running out very easy 5-2 winners. In the league they are now unbeaten in 5 and they have won 4 of them. They beat Dover in the previous round and although Yeovil are better than Dover I certainly think that Yate could well cause another upset. Yeovil's form has improved although I still remain a bit unconvinced by them and I think they have benefitted more from teams underperforming rather than them being so good themselves. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but there is value in the home win given the form they are in at the moment.   Banbury v Barrow (ITV4 Saturday 5.15pm) I mentioned Hayes who are unbeaten in the Southern Premier League South and Banbury are the same in the Southern Premier League Central. Again like Hayes they are unbeaten in all competitions as well (even when resting a lot of players in the League Cup on Tuesday night). They got through to the 1st Round last year but blew it after losing to Canvey Island. They are a better team this time around and in front of a big crowd on TV I think they have a real chance of causing an upset. Barrow haven't won in 5 league games now and I don't think they will fancy a game like this at all.   Bolton v Stockport (Sunday 3pm) Dave Challinor will be looking to make an instant impact as Stockport manager as they travel to a Bolton side who aren't in good form in the league at the moment. They have only picked up one point in their last 5 games and as I mentioned on Saturday when backing them against Dover, Stockport have got a fantastic squad that have just been underperforming. They now have the right man in charge and I can see them pushing Bolton very close here especially with the added new manager boost.   Dagenham & Redbridge v Salford (Monday 7.45pm ITV4) If this game had been played prior to Dagenham's last 6 matches they would have been much shorter for this game, but that just means we are getting better value in my view. They have lost 4 of those 6 matches, but they were much better against Chesterfield on Saturday, especially in the first half. Salford have lost 5 of their 6 away games in League 2 and if Dagenham are at their best I think they will win this.   FA Cup Acca There are four games where I can't see an upset happening and so I will put them into an acca. Walsall to win at Kings Lynn, Carlisle to beat Horsham, AFC Wimbledon to beat Guiesely and Shrewsbury to win at Stratford in a game which is live on ITV4 at 3pm on Sunday. It pays nearly 5/1 with Skybet, but I will use the next best with the bigger bookies of 4.4/1 with Betfair to record it.   AFC Sudbury 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1) Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 9/2) Lincoln -2 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 (take up to 4/5) Yate 1pt @ 17/4 with Skybet (7/2 with Bet365) (take up to 3/1) Banbury 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365 (take up to 100/30) Stockport 1pt @ 9/2 with William Hill (4/1 with Bet365) (take up to 11/4) Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Walsall/Carlisle/AFC Wimbledon/Shrewsbury 1pt @ 3.4/1 with Betfair (4/1 with Skybet and take up to 5/2)

What a race and what a superb ride and performance from a magnificent mare. She is a top class racehorse who it would be great to see come over to Europe for the arc. 3 out of the first 4 home for the preview as well so it’s been a very profitable morning. Now time for some sleep.

This year sees just two horses from Europe head down for the race that stops a nation although there are plenty who started their careers over here. Due to that I don't think the race is as strong as it has been in recent years, but what we might see is one of the best horses to ever win the race with Incentivise a short price favourite to land the Cup. Here are my thoughts on every runner in race and just to note that Delphi and Future Score need to be cleared by the vet before 7.30am Australian time.   Twilight Payment - It is very hard to win a Melbourne Cup from the front especially when you set a really strong gallop, but Twilight Payment did just that last year. No doubt he will try and do the same thing again and you have to say that he is in good form again as he won the Irish St Leger Trial in August and was then 2nd in the race itself a month later. The problem is he now has 12 more lbs to carry and no horse his age has ever won the Melbourne Cup. Given the depth to this isn't as strong as it usually is though he has a fair chance of hitting the frame again.   Incentivise - Started his career just over a year ago finishing 9th at Ipswich and then had a break until March when he finished 6th and then a well beaten 8th at Toowoomba. I think it's fair to say no one saw him as a future Melbourne Cup winner at that stage. He has since won 9 races on the bounce as he has risen through the grades in Queensland and Melbourne. It is 3 Grade 1's on the bounce as well after impressive wins in the Makybe Diva, the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. It really was a devastating performance at Caulfield last time and he never looked in a moments danger. I have seen it suggested that he isn't bred to stay the trip and that he is bred to stay it so who knows what to believe on that front. He certainly wasn't stopping over 1m4f at Caulfield and although this is likely to be a strongly run 2m he looks like he might well stay. The fact this isn't a strong Melbourne Cup depth wise will help him as well and I certainly think he would have won the Cox Plate last week. The fact his trainer decided to wait for this suggests he thinks he will stay as well. He is set to start the shortest price favourite since Phar Lap in 1930, but he deserves to be the price he is on form. He was only given a 4lb penalty for winning at Caulfield and I think that was generous. It is hard to see how those who finished behind him at Caulfield can reverse the form and he will ultimately be very hard to beat.   Spanish Mission - The only UK trained runner in the race and the only other horse to be in single figures in the betting. There certainly isn't any question marks about his stamina having won the Yorkshire Cup in May before finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup. After that he pushed Stradivarius close in the Lonsdale Cup and he clearly has the class to run very well in this. He has a great chance of hitting the frame I think, but he will need a strong pace so it turns into more of a staying contest as for me that will be his only chance of beating the favourite.   Verry Elleegant - Last year's Caulfield Cup winner and the horse who has enjoyed some great battles with Addeybb in the last couple of years. She was disappointing when only 4th to Incentivise in the Turnbull, but she bounced back to finish 3rd in the Cox Plate last week. She had to come from a long way back that day and did it round the outside compared to the front two who were on the inside. I think you could easily argue that she was the best horse in the race and that 1m2f at Moonee Valley probably wouldn't see her at her best. She was 7th in this last year, but she was finishing to great effect having been 19th 4f out and 16th 2f out. She doesn't have a great draw in 19, but you would hope that James McDonald would be able to sit closer to the pace this time around. People think she needs soft ground to be at her best, but the track was a Good 3 last year as it is likely to be this year so that doesn't worry me at all. I'm not sure she will reverse form with Incentivise, but she is better than she showed that day and I think she has a great chance of hitting the frame.    Explosive Jack - Won 3 derbies earlier in the year so stamina shouldn't be an issue and he also ran OK in the Turnbull, but he was awful in the Caulfield Cup last time so it is hard to give him much of a chance here.   The Chosen One - Was a very good 4th in this last year after finishing 3rd in the Caulfield Cup, but this year he was only 14th at Caulfield. Damian Lane felt that wasn't his true running though and he does seem to do better on a better surface. He was a good 2nd to Delphi in the Herbert Power the time before and it could be he didn't handle the 7 day back up. The problem I have though is he didn't quite see it out last year so I find it hard to see him improving on that run this time around.   Delphi - I was very impressed with his Herbert Power win, but he was very average in the Caulfield Cup a week later. He had the same run as Incentivise as well so there was no real excuse apart from he didn't handle the 7 day back up. I fancied him at Caulfield, but can't really have him here.   Ocean Billy - Landed the Auckland Cup in March and ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when running on into 9th. He probably isn't good enough to win, but we know he stays the trip and he gets the ground enjoys here which he didn't at Caulfield. An unlikely winner, but if he finished in the top 6 it wouldn't be the biggest surprise.   Selino - Won the Sydney Cup earlier in the year and ran OK in the Bert Cummings when 4th behind Grand Promenade. He wasn't so good in the Caulfield Cup last time though and he's hard to fancy.   Johnny Get Angry - Won the Derby here a year ago, but has basically been hopeless since. Apparently did work well with all the gear he had been running in after being well beaten in the Geelong Cup, but even so its hard to make a case for him.   Knights Order - Impressively won the Brisbane Cup earlier this year and likely to be up with the pace, but he's been pretty rubbish since was easily beaten by Great House on Saturday.   Persan - Was a very good 5th in this on the back of a tough prep so reason to think he might be capable of better this time around now he has been aimed at the race. The problem is he had every chance in the Caulfield Cup last time and although he was 3rd you would be hard pushed to think he could reverse the form with the winner. He does enjoy Flemington though so can see another good performance.   Carif - Would be a very surprising winner although does stay the trip.   Master Of Wine - 3rd in the Bart Cummings stands out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form and he wouldn't be for me.   Pondus - 2nd in the Curragh Cup on his last start in Ireland before moving to Australia permanently having had a couple of starts last year when still with Joseph O'Brien. Ran a really solid race 1st up in the Bart Cummings when 5th, but I was a bit disappointed with him in the Moonee Valley Cup last time albeit was a messy contest. This race might suit him better though and could hit the frame.   Grand Promenade - Landed the Bart Cummings last time ahead of a few of these which saw him gain entry for this. He has a very good record at this track and does have a similar profile to his stablemate Persan. The question mark though is if he will be good enough as he has never been above G3 company yet and he is usually a front runner which could be tricky from his stall. He does have the right man on top though in Kerrin McEvoy so a bold showing wouldn't surprise although I would be a bit surprised if he was good enough to win.   Miami Bound - Hard to make any case for her.   Port Guillaume - An example of an European who has seemingly gone backwards since moving to Australia. Was lame after the Caulfield Cup so at least had some sort of excuse for the poor effort, but he hasn't done a great deal to think he will suddenly win this.   She's Ideal - Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last time when 7th as she was probably racing in the worst of the ground. Did have a good win a over 10f 3 starts back in a G3 at Randwick and was 4th in the Sydney Cup when staying on well after missing the start. I can see her running a decent enough race, but I struggle to see her being good enough.   Future Score - Was purchased from the very shrewd Horse Watchers after winning at Pontefract for them back in 2018 to run in this contest. Although he didn't make to this race before this year he was done pretty well over in Australia and he looks like he has been crying out for 2m. The problem is he doesn't look as good as he was and has been no more than average in his starts so far this prep. I'd love to see him run well as I've followed him closely since his move to Australia, but he just hasn't been running well enough to make me want to back him even at a huge price.   Tralee Rose - Has been in good form so far this prep and was a good winner of the Geelong Cup last time after finishing 2nd to Grand Promenade in the Bart Cummings. Her only try over 2m was in the Adelaide Cup and she was 4th at odds on, but there is every chance she had enough for that prep and needed to spelled.  The Geelong Cup wasn't a strong race this year, but she only has 8-0 to carry, has a very good record at Flemington and looks to be peaking at the right time.   Floating Artist - Got up to a mark of 105 in the UK when with Richard Hannon, but I do think he has improved since moving to Australia and won his first 3 races in the country. He probably really ought to be unbeaten as he hasn't been given the best of rides the last twice especially in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time where he just failed to get up having got no sort of run. Usually that race doesn't stack up in this, but in a weaker than usual year he could well run well with no weight at all on his back. There is a slight query about the trip, but if he has improved from his UK form, which I think he has, then that might not be a problem.   Great House - Has been very busy since coming to Australia, but has carried on improving and continues to run well. He was a good 5th in the Caulfield Cup and then was well on top at the line on Saturday in the Hotham, despite the small winning margin. That was not a strong race at all and although the double has been done before and Prince Of Arran was placed after winning the contest in 2018, its never an ideal prep. I think connections only ran on Saturday to make sure they got in this and ideally they would have skipped it. Even so he looks like the trip will be ideal and he has no weight so wouldn't be a shock winner.   Sir Lucan - Northern Hemisphere 3yos have a good recent record in this contest and although he wouldn't appear to be as good as those two winners he doesn't have to carry as much weight as they did. He was awful in the St Leger last time, but the ground was pretty bad that day and every chance he didn't enjoy that. The rest of his form certainly gives him a chance off a weight like this.   Verdict - I have it down to 9 horses who I think are capable of running into the first 4, Twilight Payment, Incentivise, Spanish Mission, Verry Elleegant, Pondus, Tralee Rose, Floating Artist, Great House and Sir Lucan. As for the winner, quite simply if Incentivise sees out the trip then I don't see anything beating him and he has to be the main selection. I'm very surprised that Verry Elleegant seems to have been overlooked by everyone and no one seems to fancy her, but she ran a huge race last year and in the weaker renewal I think she can hit the frame. Her trainer has come out and said it is a myth she needs a wet track and I agree with him. Floating Artist could easily be coming into this looking for a 6th consecutive win and I'm pretty certain he has improved since going to Australia. He has no weight and looks a decent chance. Tralee Rose just misses out as I am going to make Sir Lucan the 4th pick. The record of 3yos from the UK and Ireland has been strong and as I mention in the preview he's not as good as the two winners, but his weight reflects that and connections have been very happy with him since he arrived in Australia.   1st Incentivise @ 2/1 with William Hill and Betfred 2nd Verry Ellegant e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (5 places) or 14/1 with Paddy Power for 6 places 3rd Floating Artist e/w @ 12/1 with Boylesports (6 places) and same price with bookies who are 5 places 4th Sir Lucan e/w @ 20/1 with Betfred (5 places) or 16/1 with Paddy Power for 6 places   NB If placing your bet with Bet365 they use Australian place terms so they are only the first 3. As per usual they do have a UK book to 4 places and it is well hidden. If you go to International on the horse racing page and then click on Tuesday the UK place terms market is there.

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.   Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.   Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.   Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.   Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front.    Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.   Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

Barnet v Aldershot (Live on BT Sport) Barnet were played off the park by Wrexham last Saturday and then went and beat Stockport on Tuesday night whilst Wrexham lost to Maidenhead. Proof that football will always throw up seemingly random results. That was Barnet's worse performance since Dean Brennan took over as manager though and I think it was just unfortunate it came against a Wrexham side who were at their best. I think they have a decent chance of beating an Aldershot side who are struggling for wins even if they do seem to be improving. They were heavily backed to beat Weymouth on Tuesday night and although the price ended up way too short I could see why people thought they would win as the Weymouth manager complained about how tired his players were after the draw against Wealdstone last Saturday. For Aldershot to fail to score against them wasn't great and their xG was low as well. What I will say is they have lost all 6 home league games now and they have performed better away from home, but even so there is no way they should be favourites for this game and Barnet are a massive price.   Weymouth v Kings Lynn Although Weymouth have only won once at home against Maidenhead their 2 defeats came against Boreham Wood and Stockport and they have managed a draw against Notts County as well. I mentioned above that they were looking tired last Saturday, but they rested some key players on Tuesday night so they were able to freshen some players up whilst also managing to win. I think they should be slightly shorter in the betting here. Amazingly Kings Lynn have had more possession in 10 of their 12 league games, but their problem is they often don't have enough quality in the final 3rd to take advantage of seeing so much of the ball. They had nearly 70% of the ball against Boreham Wood on Tuesday night yet could only manage an xG of 0.9 compared to Wood's 1.79 and they lost 1-0. Only 3 times this season has their xG been higher than their opponents and that for me puts things in Weymouth's favour here.   Hungerford v Maidstone (National League South) Just the one bet at Step 2 this weekend and I think the home side are overpriced here. I put Maidstone up last week and they lost 2-0 to Dorking and after a 0-0 draw at Dulwich on Tuesday night that meant they haven't scored in their last 3 league games now. You just get the sense they are in a bit of a sticky patch and this will be a tough game. Hungerford were having a cracking season last time around and they have been able to pretty much carry that into this one as well. 3 of their 4 league wins have come against the weaker sides in the league, but they have beaten Dorking and drew against Havant on Tuesday night. At home I just can't make them anywhere near as big as they are to win this and look fair value.   Barnet 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 11/10) Weymouth 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/4) Hungerford 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill (take up to 6/4)