blueboy199

Time to start up the thread again for another season. Some of the leading contenders have already been out over in Ireland although those trained over here have yet to run. A few bookies have priced up the race and to start I will go through those at the head of the market.   Ferns Lock - Many people felt he should have gone to Cheltenham last year, but young horses have got a very poor recent record in the race and the fact he was beaten at 4/11 at Fairyhouse over Easter did suggest to me connections made the right decision. He returned last month at Dromahane where he was reportedly 80% fit and drifted in the betting although still going off favourite in a 13 runner field. He put in a very impressive performance though and showed the class he showed plenty of times last season. The 2nd Dinny Lacey won on his next start to give the form a boost as well. At this stage I agree with his position at the head of the market because he was one of the top 3 horses I saw last year. My guess is we will see him at Down Royal on Boxing Day next.    Its On The Line - Flew up the run-in last season to finish 2nd to Premier Magic and after falling at Aintree went on to win at Punchestown beating Vaucelet by a length. He did run again after that when being beaten in a point by Cheltenham 4th Rocky's Howya. He ran the week before Ferns Lock at Damma House and beat the ex Paul Nicholls trained Jeremy Pass by 1/2L. It was a solid start and it wouldn't be a shock if he went to Down Royal either. He was beaten 12L by Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse last November, but he was in better form later in the season. He is the same age as Ferns Lock and there ought to be more to come. Easy to see why he is 2nd in the betting.   Ramillies - Was with Willie Mullins, but is now with David Christie. He pulled up in the Brown Advisory last season and was 6th in the Albert Bartlett the year before. He was only 3rd in his first two points, but then won twice in back to back weeks last month beating Hardline by 4L and then won by 44L. The trainer mentioned going to Down Royal with him which would give us a better idea as to where he stands with the likes of Ferns Lock, but I would be with his stablemate at this stage.   Samcro - Wasn't able to run in British hunter chases last season, but can now and after winning at Tinahely last month Gordon Elliott said he would have one further run before going to Cheltenham. He ran in 3 points last year and was very impressive in wining all 3. The win last month was by a much shorter margin, but he did it snugly. He had lost his way big time under rules and was rated 146 over fences when last seen. I would like to see that next run in a hunter chase because I want to gain a better idea as to if he is a reformed horse or if he just enjoyed going pointing and as soon as he goes back under rules he goes back to his former ways. What I will say is that he would have to be in much better form to be a winning chance in this than he was when last seen under rules and horses with his profile don't seem to win the race anymore.   Famous Clermont - Failed to get up the hill last season and then duly made amends at Aintree. He's not run yet, but connections are of the thinking he doesn't stay and so will skip Cheltenham. I must admit I would be tempted to give him another go especially on decent ground, because horses who have looked like non-stayers in the past have gone on to win this race. On The Fringe is the one that really springs to mind regarding that and I think Famous Clermont might be capable of doing something similar if allowed to. Is set to start off his season at Larkhill on New Years Eve.   Vaucelet - Was sent off favourite for this last year and never threatened to get involved although in the end he was only beaten 10L in 7th so it wasn't a dreadful run. After that he was 2nd at Punchestown, Downpatrick and Stratford and he has become a little bit frustrating. I know he could be in for a long season, but the fact he has only finished 3rd in his two runs so far this season doesn't exactly bode well. Based on that you could add a 0 to his 10/1 quote for this and even if he does get back into form he is behind Ferns Lock in the stables pecking order.   Premier Magic - Last year's winner won't be going off at 66/1 this time around that's for certain! Yet to be seen and I don't know of the plan with him, but he did return at the Chaddesley Corbett meeting over Christmas last season so would be no shock if that was his seasonal return this time around.   Rocky's Howya - He was a very progressive horse in Irish points last season and it was no surprise to see him run a blinder in this back in March. In the end he finished 4th after leading and then getting hampered by a loose horse on the run-in. He won 3 more points after that including beating Its On The Line. He is yet to reappear this season, but hopefully all is well as he looks an exciting horse for this season.   Fakir D'Alene - Was 2nd in a point to start the season off, but he then finished 3rd in the Troytown and his trainer said he would be running in the big handicap chases this season so doesn't look a likely runner.   Secret Investor - Fell in this last year early on, but did go on to win the big one at Stratford in good style. His trainer did say in his stable tour though that he thinks the horse doesn't like Cheltenham and won't be aimed at the race.   The Bosses Oscar - Has run in 4 points already, but the only victory came first time out at the start of October. Was beaten 13L into 4th by Ferns Lock and whilst he has qualified he wouldn't look to be good enough at this stage.   Time Leader - The only horse worth mentioning from Britain that has run this season. Was a massive improver for Joe O'Shea last season and whilst his name isn't down as the trainer anymore, you can be guaranteed he is still heavily involved. Ran a huge race at Aintree and it seems that rather than Cheltenham is the target. Was hugely impressive first up this season, but then pulled up in very testing ground at Chaddesley Corbett. He's better than that, but my feeling is 3m2f round Cheltenham would stretch his stamina.

My thoughts on this weekends FA Cup action.   Sheppey v Walsall This should be a complete mis-match and it should be an easy win for Walsall on ITV4 on Friday night. Sheppey play at Step 4 in the same league as one of my local teams Beckenham and whilst I have not had chance to watch them this season yet, I did go a few times last season including when Beckenham were hammered by Dagenham in the FA Cup. Given Beckenham reached the play-offs in the end it gives me a good guide that Sheppey, who are worse than that Beckenham side, shouldn't really be capable of giving a League 2 side with too many concerns. I will be taking Walsall on the -2 handicap as given the game is on TV I suspect they will put out a strong line-up to avoid an embarrassing defeat.   Eastleigh v Boreham Wood All National League tie and whilst I tried to take Boreham Wood on in the previous round I am with them here. I think they have improved since beating Welling and Eastleigh just seem to be all over the place at the moment. Capable of good performances, but then terrible for others including last week against Maidenhead. For me Boreham Wood are just too big a price given there is very little between the two sides.   Oxford United v Maidenhead Taking a huge flyer with this one, but Maidenhead have certainly improved their performances recently and whilst they travel to 2nd in League 1, I suspect Oxford don't really care too much about the FA Cup this season given getting into the Championship would be a huge achievement. Alan Devonshire loves to cause upsets in the league and whilst chances are they will lose, I give them a slightly better chance than the odds suggest so will take a punt on them to cause a big upset.   Ramsgate v Woking A chance this game wont take place, but Ramsgate look a very strong Step 4 side this season and did very well to beat Totton in the previous round. We can ignore their FA Trophy defeat on Tuesday as they rested players for this game and I think they have a chance of beating Woking who just haven't convinced me at all of late.   Sutton v AFC Fylde Sutton are really struggling in League 2 this season and they might well be coming back to Non-League football. Whilst Fylde have struggled as well, they have improved hugely since sacking their manager and the two wins over Oldham and Gateshead have been superb. Play like they did in those two games and they have a great chance of winning a fixture which could be a league game next season.   Yeovil v Gateshead I feared for Gateshead when they lost their manager to MK Dons and they drew with Rochdale before that heavy defeat to Fylde as mentioned above. Yeovil are beginning to look really good in the National League South and they do look like the most likely title winners right now. I'm sure though they will be keen to beat a National League side to prove how good they are and with Gateshead looking vulnerable right now this looks like a good chance for the home side.   Slough v Grimsby Not a huge surprise that Grimsby sacked Paul Hurst last weekend given they have really struggled for form and they have picked up just 2 points away from home this season. I've tried backing Slough a few times recently and they keep drawing, but I do think they are better than their league position suggests and they could make things very tricky for their League 2 opponents on Sunday afternoon.   Charlton v Cray Valley Paper Mills I must admit I didn't expect this game to be on TV because Charlton are at home, but given there is just 3 miles between the two sides grounds I guess that trumped the fact it is the league side at home. I know Cray did us a big favour in the FA Trophy last week and at home they might have had a small chance, but I just can't see how Charlton don't make sure they aren't embarrassed on TV by their local small Non-League club. League 1 to Step 4 is a huge gulf and they should be capable of over coming the -3 handicap.   Acca I have come up with a 6-fold of teams I think look bankers over the weekend. Friday's 2 games should go the way of the League sides so Barnsley and Walsall hopefully get the acca off to a good start. On Saturday I think Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United and Stockport will beat Whitby, Bracknell and Worksop respectively. Finally we may as well put Charlton as they ought to boost the returns even at around 1/10.   Prices taken from around 9.30pm on Wednesday.   Walsall -2 1pt @ 11/5 with Coral (23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair take up to 7/4) Boreham Wood 1pt @ 9/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power (365 are 5/2 and take up to 15/8) Maidenhead 1pt @ 8/1 with William Hill (9/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral and take up to 6/1) Ramsgate 1pt @ 11/2 with BetVictor and William Hill (6/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral take up to 7/2) AFC Fylde 1pt @ 18/5 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/4 with Paddys and Betfair and take up to 11/4) Yeovil 1pt @ 23/10 with Skybet and Coral (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 15/8) Slough 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone (13/4 with Coral and take up to 5/2) Charlton -3 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4) Barnsley/Walsall/Bristol Rovers/Cambridge United/Stockport/Charlton 1pt acca @ 1.74/1 with Bet365

The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places

Chesterfield v Bromley Whatever happens in this game the price on Bromley is just too big. For the 2nd time this season when I thought Chesterfield would go and beat a team easily they failed to do so. They were poor against Maidenhead as well and this will clearly be a tougher test although I do expect them to play better. Bromley though continued their unbeaten on Saturday and I think they will make things very tough for the home side here. Obviously the home side deserve to be favs, but 11/2 is a much bigger price than I think Bromley should be so happy to take a chance.   Eastleigh v Ebbsfleet For there to be 5 goals in Eastleigh's game at Halifax was a bit of a surprise given Halifax games had only featured 20 goals prior to that and Eastleigh haven't exactly been the most prolific in front of goal either. I was also surprised by Eastleigh going for Richard Hill as manager as it just seems a backwards step and he has had a very easy fixture list. I watched Ebbsfleet v Dorking last week and as much as we were on Dorking and they won I do think Ebbsfleet put in a fair performance. They managed to build on that on Saturday when easily beating Boreham Wood. The one concern is that Ebbsfleet have only won once away from home which came in their win at Rochdale on the opening day of the season, but to be fair to them they have had some tricky away games and they did manage a draw at Woking. They are good enough to win this and value to do so.   Prices from Monday 5pm   Bromley 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Skybet, William Hill, Coral and BetVictor (take up to 3/1) Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 13/8)

Aldershot v Southend Clearly I should have tried carrying on trying to oppose Southend as they lost 2-1 to Fylde on Saturday and everything I have read on the game suggests that the players were very tired after playing on Tuesday. I'm surprised a little because they didn't have to work that hard to beat Maidenhead, but clearly that is worrying for them given they have to play again tomorrow. Not surprisingly their away form hasn't been as good as their home form and I certainly think it has been a case of them wanting to put on a performance for their fans who are going through so much at the moment. Aldershot had a good win over Boreham Wood on Saturday and their only defeat at home this season was against Chesterfield. I'm really surprised to see Southend as favs for this game and am very keen on Aldershot.   Ebbsfleet v Dorking It was a dire afternoon on Saturday for the home side as Altrincham put 6 past them and that means they have won just once in 6 games. Granted they have been better at home and have conceded just 4 times in 5 games and scored 10 so that is one thing to consider, but I just can't have them as short as they are for this game and so Dorking look a value play. They lost their first 3 away games, but they had to travel to Chesterfield, Solihull and Woking so it was a tough start and they nearly got something at Chesterfield. They then drew at Oldham (where they did off course score but it wasn't given) and then beat Halifax in their last away game. They should have won on Saturday, but allowed Rochdale to score 2 late goals to beat them 2-1. I just don't think there is as much between these two sides as the bookies think so am happy to take a chance on the away side.   Kidderminster v Oldham No surprise to me that the sacking of Unsworth has suddenly seen a huge upturn in performances and results for Oldham and they really ought to prove too strong for Kidderminster. Now I accept that Kiddie are putting in strong performances at home as they have had high xGs for and low xGs against, but Oldham, as they proved on Saturday when winning 4-0, carry a huge goal threat and in my view the biggest goal threat they have faced at home so far this season. Those xG's have only led to 1 goal and whilst surely they have to score at some point, it has been a huge problem. They did take the lead against Eastleigh on Saturday, but it was via a penalty. Oldham should be much shorter for this than they are.   Maidenhead v Altrincham I was surprised that Maidenhead kept Gateshead quiet for as long as they did on Saturday, but in the end it was a comfortable win for the home side. They created very little yet again and also lost their 2 central defenders to injury. That isn't going to help playing a side here who scored 6 on Saturday. Alty have struggled with injuries themselves, but added a couple of players last week which clearly helped them. They have only lost 2 games all season and whilst they have drawn plenty (6 of 11 games) I do think they can beat Maidenhead. To be fair they have been better at home having drawn 3 and only conceding 3 times, but they have also only scored 3 times and I think they might struggle to keep Alty out here.   Rochdale v Chesterfield For once Chesterfield didn't have to rely on a late winner on Saturday as they beat Wealdstone 3-2 having come from a goal down. Also unusually none of their goals came from a set-piece or a penalty. I counted up a couple of weeks ago and at the time just over half their goals had come from a set-piece or a penalty. They have only lost once and that was away at Altrincham and I have seen enough in Rochdale to think they can pick up 3 points here. Confidence will be high as well given the way they won on Saturday especially given they put 4 past Barnet in their last home game.   Prices taken from Monday around 9am   Aldershot 2.5pts @ 2/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Coral (take up to 5/4) Dorking 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 11/4) Oldham 2.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Altrincham 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Rochdale 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 15/8)

Eastleigh v Kidderminster Kidderminster managed just 4 shots against Gateshead on Tuesday night and none were on target and the xG was 0.01. As I mentioned on Tuesday as much as they are creating lots of chances at home and not scoring they are creating very little away from home and obviously still not scoring. Eastleigh aren't as good as Gateshead, but they did well against Oxford City on Tuesday and were a bit unfortunate really to not see it out at 2-0. There was more than enough in that performance though to think they can beat Kidderminster and 1 goal might well be enough. Amazingly Kidderminster have been backed from 11/4 to win this game which just makes no sense to me.   Gateshead v Maidenhead As mentioned above Gateshead had a very comfortable time of things on Tuesday in their 3-0 victory over Kidderminster. It was an impressive performance and based on what I saw on Tuesday night they should have just as easy a time against Maidenhead. Clearly some credit should go to Southend given their circumstances, but Maidenhead put in the worst performance I have seen so far this season. They only had 3 shots and all of them came in the 2nd half. Just everything about the performance was bad and given the way Gateshead play football I think Maidenhead will struggle to contain them. Not surprisingly they were backed after Tuesday's results, but I still think the -1 handicap is value.   Solihull v Bromley Solihull have yet to lose this season, but I still think they are over achieving and I think they have a fair chance of their first defeat coming in this game. As I mentioned last Saturday Bromley have really found their form after struggling at the start and they won again on Tuesday night when beating Dagenham. Clearly this is no gimmie, but I can't have Bromley being over 2/1 for this as no way is there that big a gap between the two sides and to be honest I would expect Bromley to finish above Solihull come the end of the season so they have to be a bet here.   Eastbourne v Welling Welling for me are better than their league position suggests and they look a value play to win this game against Eastbourne. This is a bit of a crunch match for the Welling manager given he was sacked from Eastbourne in the summer after they were taken over. I think he will be especially keen to prove a point here and given Eastbourne haven't really been all that convincing at all this season I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and especially not the gap the bookies have between them.    Farnborough v Slough Slough have been a bit hit and miss so far this season, but they have got better as the season gone on except for the heavy defeat against Tonbridge. Beating Aveley in their last league game was a really good effort given how well they have done this season and they really ought not to have lost to Torquay as well last month. George Alexander really impressed me when he went on loan to Slough last season and they have managed to get him back this season as well and he has already scored 6 goals. I thought Farnborough would be capable of better than they have done so far and on paper they are probably stronger than Slough, but Alexander will be the best man on the pitch and I just can't make them as big as the bookies have them.   Hampton & Richmond v Yeovil Hampton finally got a win on the board in their first home game of the season (they played their first few away from home) when they beat Weymouth although they did have to rely on a penalty that night. Yeovil are definitely better than Hampton and whilst they haven't always been at their best on the pitch, I'm not surprised they have been well backed since I sent the tips out last night.    Chatham v Lewes (Isthmian Premier) Chatham won their first 5 games, but their last 2 games have not been so good having lost 5-1 to Cray, which was their first win of the season, and then they drew with Potters Bar 0-0 last week, which was their first point of the season. Lewes started well also winning their first 3 they then drew against Hornchurch and Bognor. Those were decent efforts given Hornchurch were the ante-post favs and Bognor have drawn 4 of their 7 games so are clearly hard to beat. They did lose to Folkestone in their last league game, but bounced back to beat Ascot in the FA Cup last week. They look value to me to get back to winning ways in the league.   Salisbury v Bracknell (Southern Premier South) I really don't understand the prices here and it is almost like it has been based on what the teams were doing last season rather than this one. Salisbury of course are one of our ante-post bets and they remain unbeaten after 8 league games having won 5 and drawn 3. They had an easy time of things in the FA Cup last week beating Mousehole 5-0 as well and they should be favs to win this game for me. Bracknell had a good FA Cup win themselves beating Havant, but their away form in the league has been poor having lost 3 and drawn 1. The losses were to Gosport, Poole and Walton so 3 of the better teams in the league, but then Salisbury are also one of the better sides in the division and I just don't see how they can be nearly 2/1 to win this.   NB prices from Thursday evening   Eastleigh 2pts @ 29/20 with Bet365 (6/4 with Skybet and take up to 11/10) Gateshead -1 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Skybet (13/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 5/6) Bromley 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral (Bet365 are 5/2 and take up to 2/1) Welling 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (16/5 with Betfred and take up to 9/4) Slough 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Bet365 (take up to 5/2) Yeovil 1pt 6/4 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Lewes 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 7/4) Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 5/4)

Chesterfield v Dagenham & Redbridge I'm happy to oppose Chesterfield again. They can't stop leaking goals and as their assistant said after the win at Aldershot, they can't keep having to score 4 goals to win games. Clearly they are the most likely winners, but Dagenham have been much improved since their shocking start to the season and they were the first team to beat Barnet. 5/1 is too big for me and I am happy to take a chance.   Oldham v Dorking In some ways Oldham were unlucky not to win against Gateshead last week, but I think Gateshead more than deserved the point. The defending for the Gateshead 2nd was awful as well and a team like Oldham, especially as they were a goal up, should have defended much better than they did. Unsworth continues to look clueless and I am happy to take them on here. Again on paper they should win this and Dorking are hardly in great form themselves having only beaten Southend so far, but they should have beaten Eastleigh last week and I think they have the potential to make things tricky for Oldham. The longer it stays 0-0 or if Dorking can take the lead then the more the crowd will be calling for Unsworth to go and that will make it a pretty toxic environment for the homeside.   Scarborough v Brackley Brackley had more than enough chances to have won for us against Kings Lynn on Tuesday night, but in the end they had to settle for a point having scored a very late equaliser. I think they are a fair bet to beat a Scarborough side who lost to Southport on Tuesday and weren't great in getting a point against Gloucester last Saturday.   Canvey Island v Whitehawk (Isthmian Premier) After losing to Margate on the opening day, newly promoted Whitehawk have done very well. They drew with Hastings, who are yet to lose, beat Billericay, who have won every other game and beat Horsham who have done well so far as well. That's strong form for me and they look a spot of value to beat a Canvey Island side who have struggled to find the form that saw them finish in the play-offs last season. They did beat Concord a couple of weeks ago, but they have lost every game and the 3 previous defeats were not great.    AFC Totton v Hendon and Gosport v Hungerford (Southern Premier South) Going to double up the 2 home sides here. Both have been backed which isn't a surprise. Hendon have drawn 4 of their 6 games so far, but Totton should be good enough to get the 3 points. Hungerford have struggled against the better sides so far and Gosport are clearly one of those at the moment so again ought to be too strong.   Prices from 8pm Friday night Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4) Dorking 1pt @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4) Brackley 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4) Whitehawk 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 13/8) AFC Totton/Gosport 1pt double @ 9/4 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 2/1)

Alfreton v Scunthorpe I put Scunthorpe up last Saturday when they were odds against and they lost to Curzon although they were a bit unlucky to. I watched the first half against Scarborough on Monday and they looked very good, eventually winning the game 4-1. Alfreton allowed Kings Lynn to have 60% of the ball on Monday and I can imagine that they will allow Scunthorpe a lot of the ball here and just try to defend and then hit them on the break. I think Scunthorpe are more than good enough to overcome those tactics though and I'm going to back them at odds on against again to win.   Curzon Ashton v Tamworth Both these sides have got off to very good starts to the season and Curzon are unbeaten having won 3 and drawn 3, which includes that win against Scunthorpe mentioned above. They haven't been creating too many chances of in recent games, but they are being very clinical and they scored with all 4 shots on target on Monday against Peterborough. This is no gimmie as Tamworth look decent as well, but given they are at home I am surprised that Curzon are the outsiders so I for me there is value in backing the home side.   Farsley Celtic v Kings Lynn Celtic were unbeaten going into Monday's game at Chester, but they really struggled in that game only having 2 shots during the 90 minutes. They ended up losing 2-0, but I think they are value to get back to winning ways here. They have drawn all 3 of their home games so far, but they have played Chorley, South Shields and Tamworth and I think Kings Lynn aren't as good as those 3 teams at the moment. I know they finally won on Monday, but I'm not sure it was a sign that they were going to go flying up the table and I just think that Farsley are too big a price to win this.   Eastbourne v Weston-Super-Mare A battle between two seaside towns and one I think might be won by the away side. Eastbourne have really struggled so far this season having only won their opening game against Hampton and they have lost their last 4. There were some signs of improvement against Chelmsford, but this new side just seem to be struggling performance wise. Weston were poor in 3-0 losses to Slough and Farnborough, but were much better on Monday against Hemel and should have won rather than drawing 1-1. I think Weston are a small bit of value to win this.   Welling v St Albans There has been money for Welling and I am not surprised as they had been playing fairly well and just not getting the results, before getting 6/6 points over the bank holiday weekend when they beat Havant and Tonbridge. I watched the 2nd half when I put up St Albans to beat Havant the other week and felt like we had got away with one as I wasn't overly impressed. They have duly lost all 3 games since then against Torquay, Taunton and Bath. Their xG's have been below 1 in all 3 of those games and they just aren't creating decent chances at the moment. Welling come into this full of confidence and I would make them favourites.   Prices from around 5pm on Friday afternoon   Scunthorpe 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 17/10 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone (take up to 7/4) Welling 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Betfair, Betfred and Paddy Power (take up to 11/8)

AFC Fylde v Altrincham Altrincham fully deserved to beat Chesterfield on Saturday and I will write more on them in a minute, but it was an impressive performance and it means they are unbeaten. I've been a bit disappointed with Fylde so far as I thought they would hit the ground running after winning the title last season, but it hasn't really happened for them. I nearly opposed them on Saturday where they lost to Hartlepool on the TV. I was only able to watch the first half, but it was very easy for the home side and it highlighted the gulf that Fylde face at the moment against the better sides in the division and I think Altrincham are one of those. I'm always slightly wary about teams backing up after just the 48 hour break otherwise I would have a bigger bet because I would make them slight favs to win this.   Bromley v Southend Bromley have been poor so far and they have yet to win. Arguably they have been fortunate to even get three points on the board. Clearly there is a chance Southend might not even exist in just over a months time, but that hasn't bothered the players too much. I watched them on Friday night against Eastleigh and they were very good and it is clear they want to put on a performance for the fans. The small squad is a small concern given the quick turnaround, but having played on Friday night instead of Saturday should help on that front. They have been backed already and I'm not surprised as I think they will win again.   Chesterfield v Hartlepool I keep reading and hearing that Chesterfield are the best team in the league, while they haven't shown they are on the pitch so far and yet again they were pretty ordinary on Saturday. They managed just 4 shots against Altrincham and the goal, which was from a corner (just as it was against Oldham), was their only shot on target. In the last half hour of the game, where the home side were really on top, they only had 41% of the ball and in the 1st half, where they had more of the ball, they were just as ineffective at creating chances as they were against Oldham. Hartlepool are top of the table and deservedly so as they have looked very good so far. For some reason the home side are being backed even though they are already odds on and that makes no sense to me at all. Right now Hartlepool are the better side and whilst that could change tomorrow, they are a fantastic price.   Kings Lynn v Alfreton Kings Lynn have been pretty woeful so far this season. They have yet to win and have even been fortunate at times to pick up the 3 points they have. They hosted Gloucester last Saturday and even though we have been pretty rubbish ourselves we should have beaten them. They are the only side to have lost to Chester and Chorley got their first win against them on Saturday. Alfreton have been their usual solid selves so far although they will be a bit disappointed to lose 3-2 to a Darlington side who hadn't won prior to Saturday. Hopefully that won't happen again here and they are too big a price not to back against a home side who have yet to get going.   Havant & Waterlooville v Yeovil Havant are bottom of the table and just as per last season they are struggling at home having lost both games so far. They also lost at Welling on Saturday who were picking up their first points of the season. They now have to host a Yeovil side who ought to be challenging for the title and are currently in 3rd place in the table. I'm not surprised they are being backed, but for me the price hasn't gone far enough.   Prices taken from 9pm last night Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor (21/10 with Hills and Coral and take up to 6/4) Southend 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365, Coral and Skybet (13/10 with Hills and take up to 11/10) Hartlepool 2pts @ 16/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfair (Bet365 are 100/30 and take up to 2/1) Alfreton 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Yeovil 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 (23/20 with Hills and take up to 4/5)   Basingstoke v AFC Totton The home side have won their last two matches, but neither were as good as Totton and whilst the number of goals they conceded on Saturday is a slight concern, I still think they will be too strong for Basingstoke and I am surprised they aren't favourites.   Worthing v Weymouth, Swindon Supermarine v Merthyr and Haringey v Enfield I am going to do a treble with three sides who are all a shade of odds on to win. Worthing have looked very good so far and were unlucky to lose the game that they have done. Weymouth have been very in and out so far and were well beaten on Saturday against Chelmsford. I think Worthing will have too much for them. Then we have two sides who are top in their respective leagues (Southern Premier South and the Isthmian Premier) and who currently have 100% travel to sides who have yet to record a point. I think that will continue and with both a shade of odds on I am happy to stick both in a double.   Prices taken at 9.50 this morning AFC Totton 1pt @ 7/5 with Betfred (6/4 with William Hills and take up to 5/4) Worthing/Merthyr/Enfield 1pt treble @ 5.4/1 with Betfred (higher is available with others)

A cracking final meeting of the season to look forward to at Ballarat with plenty of ex-European horses in action including Nelson. Stern Idol is not surprisingly a warm order for the Grand National at the end of the card.   Race 1 Botti has run well in two hurdles starts in Australia having finished 2nd at Pakenham and then 3rd in a BM120 at Sandown. He goes back into maiden company here, but my concern is that he also drops in trip as he looks like he needs further based on his two runs so far. His jockey also said the same to the stewards after his Sandown run. He clearly has his chance, but chances are he will get going too late. Saint Eustace ran his best race yet over hurdles a couple of weeks ago when just being denied by 0.2L. If he can back that up then he has a chance, but he hasn't always looked the straightforward. Second Act is related to Stern Idol and has also come over from France although he failed to finish in a couple of hurdle races there. In Australia he's had 3 hurdle trials and has looked good enough in them. He has run in a couple of maidens on the flat as well finishing 2nd to Crosshill 1st up and then winning 2nd up. Clearly has ability and given how they train them in France he will have been well schooled before he even got to Oz. Shakespeare was 3rd on his hurdle debut a couple of weeks ago and was behind Saint Eustace. He travelled well for a long way, but faded after the last although he should improve for the run. Chatelaine won a BM78 at Sandown on the flat back in March, but hasn't been as good since. I did like the way he jumped in his trial a couple of weeks ago although he wasn't exactly put under too much pressure by the other runners that day.   I think this is a tricky race to start with. Second Act has the potential, but he's priced up accordingly against some horses who have run well in maidens so far this season. I will take a small chance on Shakespeare who looked the winner for a long way, but should come on for the run and hopefully he can have more of a finishing kick here.   Shakespeare 0.5pts @ 16/5 with Bet365   Race 2 Dr Colin is a fairly short price favourite here, but I am happy enough to take him on. He did win on the flat at Geelong last time, but it was only a BM58 so it was in the lowest grade. His trial hurdle win before that was only against 2 other rivals and I think he's been put in too short on the back of those efforts. Quota is 2nd in the betting at the time of writing and I don't fancy him much either. He was well beaten on the flat last time and his hurdle trials didn't so a great deal.    The Awesome Sun, Raise Your Sights and What Revolution were 2nd, 3rd and 4th to Platinum Spirit a couple of weeks ago. I think the form will be upheld here as I liked the way The Awesome Sun battled on in the closing stages. I will back him and I will also back Three Over Two. There was some promise in his 5th at Sale and he followed that up with a 3rd at Pakenham just behind Platinum Spirit who finished 2nd. He finished closer to him than The Awesome Sun did at Coleriane so I will also back him as I think he's a solid yardstick.   The Awesome Sun 0.5pts @ 9/2 with everyone Three Over Two 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 and William Hill   Race 3 All of these ran in various races at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago and Jekyll'n'hyde ran the fastest time. I was tempted to go with him, but I'm not certain that he is the best horse because that race was run at a strong pace which meant it was no real surprise the time was quicker. Platinum Spirit was visually the most impressive, but he's priced up accordingly. You can give most of the others a chance as well so it just looks another of those real tricky handicap hurdles we have seen in recent weeks so I'm going to leave it alone.   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and at the time of writing Raise You Ten has been backed into favouritism. He has only had one start over hurdles and he took the opening maiden on this card 24 months ago when looking impressive. He clearly had an injury as he went missing 88 weeks. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat so far this prep to help get him ready for this, but I just don't think he should be favourite. If this was a handicap he would be getting lots more weight from Bedford and to go straight from a maiden into this sort of company is tough, even if you are trained by Maher and Eustace. Bedford has really surprised me in recent weeks as he has really hit form. He took a winner of 1 at Warrnambool and then took the big hurdle on the Pakenham card a couple of weeks late. I thought he ran really well in the Grand National Hurdle last time, where it looked like he just didn't stay so the drop back in trip should help. He has the best hurdles form in the race and for me is the one they have to beat.   Instigator was just 0.75L behind Bedford at Pakenham and wasn't that far behind him at Sandown so I'm sure he will run his usual solid race again. Dashing Willoughby finally won again a couple of starts back and was then 2nd in the BM120 on the Sandown card earlier in the month. He wanted to hang in behind the winner that day though and this should be tougher. I am going to be sticking with Bedford though.   Bedford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365   Race 5 The bookies have Nelson and King's Charisma as joint favs for this and preference for me is to go with the chasing experience of Nelson. I never did get to the bottom if Nelson was the first horse to run in the Arc and then to run over fences, but he was 2nd on his chasing debut before winning well at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago. He obviously has a big weight here, but he has the class edge for me over his rivals. King's Charisma is making his chasing debut and he has had a decent enough season over hurdles apart from last time where he was very disappointing. He's had 1 steeple trial and he jumped out to his right a bit which would be a small concern here and is one of the reasons why I would rather go with the chasing experience of Nelson. It's hard to see anything else winning as Nelson has the beating of a few of these already from the victory a couple of weeks ago.   Nelson 2pts @ 6/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred   Race 6 The Grand National Steeplechase is the big race on the card and I just don't see how Stern Idol gets beaten. He's only been beaten twice in Australia over obstacles that was in the big hurdle on this card last season and in the Grand Annual where he seemingly didn't stay. Bell Ex One who beat him last year bids to do the same here, but I don't think he's been quite as good this year and he looked a bit slow over his fences in his steeple trial. Stern Idol won the Crisp Steeplechase by 25L at Sandown last time beating a few of these in the process. That was over 4200m and he has 4500m here, but he would have won over 4500m at Sandown and that is more of a stamina test given the hill there whereas Ballarat is flat. Like I say I can't see him not winning.   San Remo won the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown, but his chasing form previously was nowhere as good as his hurdles form. I guess he could have improved, but I can't see him improving enough to get near Stern Idol. Stern Idol clocked a 5 seconds quicker time as well which takes some doing. A few of these were behind Stern Idol in the Crisp, but I don't really see how any of them can reverse the form here. The one horse who I do think will run better though is Crosshill who was a bit disappointing at Sandown, but his jockey thinks the track didn't suit him and he will prefer Ballarat. I thought he ran well in the Grand Annual to finish 3rd and this shorter trip should suit him. We know he has the class from when he was trained in Ireland and he looks over priced to hit the frame. I know he's 1/2, but I think even at those odds he's value so will be having a max bet on him.   Stern Idol 5pts @ 1/2 with everyone Crosshill 0.5pts to place @ 3.4/1 with Bet365  0.25pts to win @ 25/1 with Bet365

It's my birthday today so hopefully I can make it a profitable one.
Aldershot v Wealdstone
Aldershot denied us last week as they nearly got the 3 points against York, but York scored in injury time. I think the game said more about how much York have struggled so far rather than Aldershot being anything special. We were unlucky not to collect on Wealdstone last Tuesday against Bromley and they deservedly got back to winning ways on Saturday when beating Fylde 3-2. The winner came very late on, but we have to factor in that Houghton scored one of his specials from inside his own half for Fylde which clearly is a bit of a freak goal. Wealdstone have been better than Aldershot for me so far this season so I am happy to back them again.
 
Altrincham v Chesterfield
I have watched most of Chesterfield's last 2 games against Oxford and Oldham and I have not been impressed at all. They were lucky to get the 3 points against Oxford, who played very well, and then they lacked ideas against an Oldham side who basically just sat back and let them have the ball. Oldham were even worse themselves although they did manage to create the best chances of the game despite being so poor. Often for me Oldham didn't even press Chesterfield that much in the final 3rd and yet time and time again they lacked the quality to create a meaningful chance. For me this was a game Chesterfield should have won comfortably given how it played out, but the fact they didn't spoke volumes for me. Altrincham are more than good enough to cause them big problems and they have yet to taste defeat this season with 3 draws and a victory over Woking. They look decent value to win this.
 
Curzon Ashton v Scunthorpe
Curzon have scored in every game, but apart from when they scored 3 against Darlington on day 1 they have really struggled to create many opportunites with xG's of 0.83, 0.63 and 0.3. The game against Buxton last week must have been a tough watch with Buxton's xG just 0.28 and they only managed 9 shots between them. Granted they haven't lost yet, but they host the best team in the division and I don't think there will be too many chances to back them at odds against this season so I will take this one.
 
Mickleover v Hitchin (Southern Premier Central)
I said in the ante-post preview for this league that I wanted to add Mickleover to the bets, but I thought they were a little shorter than I was expecting. However not only am I going to back them to win on Saturday, I am also going to back them for the title. They have had a superb start to the season and I want them onside now even though I am taking a shorter price of 9/2. Our only bets so far were Coalville and they had a shocker last week losing 6-1 to Needham Market which was a huge surprise. I still have the belief that they will go close despite that, but Mickleover look to me like they will be big players. Hitchin have won 3 of their first 4 games, but they have had a kind fixture list and lost to Needham themselves.
 
Since I wrote the above last night they have now gone odds on for tomorrow so the price has gone for me. I would want at least Evens to get involved.
 
AFC Totton v Hanwell (Southern Premier South)
I think this looks the best bet of the weekend. Hanwell won their first 2 games, but that was only against Didcot (lost every game) and Basingstoke (struggled in their first 3 games). They then hosted Merthyr last week and lost 4-1 which suggests to me they are going to struggle against the better sides of the division which Totton should be one. One of our ante-post picks they have had a very good start to the season winning 3 and the only loss was to one of our other ante-post bets Salisbury. For me they should have too much for Hanwell and look a good price.
 
National League South
I haven't had too many bets so far in this league and I think it has been a tricky league to call so far. I have however been very impressed with Worthing and I am going to top up our ante-post bet on them to make it a point e/w. They won their first 3 games, including winning 3-0 at Torquay, before losing to Aveley last Saturday. Now I watched Aveley play Eastbourne last Monday and I was pretty impressed with the home side. They deserved the 3 points and I thought they looked the type of side who would make things difficult for plenty of teams this season so I wasn't entirely surprised that they managed to beat Worthing. However they only had 4 shots in the game and managed to score twice and Worthing had 21 shots. They also had a penalty which they scored but the ref ruled it out, which was the right decision, but then the ref gave a free kick to Aveley instead of allowing the penalty to be retaken. That goes in and obviously they get at least a point.
Prices from Friday afternoon
Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill and Coral (2/1 with 365 and a little bit on Betfair exchange take up to 13/8)
Altrincham 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (7/2 with Bet365 and take up to 5/2)
Scunthorpe 2pts @ Evs with basically everyone (Hills are 11/10 and take up to 10/11)
AFC Totton 3pts @ Evs with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 8/11)
 
Ante-Post
Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (Betway are 12/1 and Skybet 10/1)
Mickleover 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and William Hill

Oxford City v Rochdale City's defending looked hopeless against Aldershot and I am more than happy to continue to oppose them. Rochdale did OK in the live game against Ebbsfleet and I don't think there was much between the two sides at all. I certainly saw enough to give me the confidence to back them at a shade of odds against to beat the team I think will finish bottom.   Bromley v Barnet Barnet have been really well backed for the live TV game, but I still think there is some juice in the price. They were good last week when taking a 3-0 lead against Hartlepool and it was only a lapse of concentration which gave Hartlepool some late hope to get it to 3-2. Bromley struggled at Halifax and I just get the sense they are a little short at the moment so I think the North London side can beat the South London side.   Havant v Chippenham Havant lost the plot in the 2nd half of last season and they were especially bad at home. They weren't great last week when losing to Weston and so I am happy to take a chance on Chippenham who got off to a solid start with a win on the opening day.   Chester v Kings Lynn Chester had a very surprising loss on the opening day at Bishops Stortford and I think they will lose this as well. This is actually a game between the teams who finished 3rd and 2nd last season and Chester have got 6 players missing going into this game. Not all the players have been named, but they don't have a huge squad so it is going to hurt them. Kings Lynn battered Hereford xG wise last Saturday although they only got a point in a 2-2 draw. Still it was a promising start and they are a decent price to beat Chester.   Rochdale 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 10/11) Barnet 2pts @ 15/8 with Coral, William Hill and Betfred (365 are a huge 11/5 and take up to 6/4) Chippenham 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 5/2) Kings Lynn 1pt @ 19/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Bet365 (take up to 6/4)   (Odds correct as of Friday 7pm)

Aldershot v Oxford City I am not surprised that the home side have been backed already for this and I imagine that will continue to happen throughout the week. To be fair these two teams could easily have switched positions as Aldershot probably ought to have gone down, but the late managerial change to bring Tommy Widdrington in just worked. Whilst losing Tyler Cordner to York isn't great, they did get a 6 figure sum for him and whilst I don't expect them to finish any higher than mid-table, I do think Widdrington has done a solid enough job in bringing in new players to improve a struggling squad. The main reason for this bet though is that I think Oxford City are going to really struggle this season and I think they will be this terms Maidstone. They don't have much money, don't have many fans and the squad looks pretty weak for this level. I'd be a bit surprised if Aldershot weren't good enough to get off to a winning start and I reckon they will be nearer 8/11-4/6 come kick off not the odds against they currently are.   Maidenhead v AFC Fylde Because of Alan Devonshire I always think Maidenhead will stay up because he has done an amazing job over the years, but for the first time I actually think they could end up in the bottom 4 this season. They were still capable of putting in very good performances at home to the big clubs and they pushed both Notts County and Wrexham close at home last season and I suspect that might happen again this time around. They still were very close to going down though and were pretty average for most of the season. I don't really see them improving this season and for me that means they could finally go down. AFC Fylde certainly have the better squad and after winning the title last season I think they have the potential to be in and around the play-offs. I think they should be favourites for this even though they are away from home and look good value.   Rochdale v Ebbsfleet The first live National League game on TNT (the new name for BT Sport) is this one and I hope that both Step 2 champions can get off to a winning start. Ebbsfleet played some great football to win the title with ease last term and this is a real tough game for a relegated Rochdale side who haven't been at this level before. I don't think Rochdale are going to do a great deal this season and they might get a shock here. It wouldn't actually surprise me if Ebbsfleet have a bigger budget than their hosts and manager Jimmy McNulty was talking in the paper today that even the likes of Altrincham and Gateshead have been outbidding them for players. Bet365 are out on their own at 7/2 but plenty are bigger than 3/1 and I think this is a game priced up on what leagues they were in last season rather on what both sides might be capable off now they are in the same division.   Solihull Moors v Eastleigh As I mentioned in the Ante-Post preview I think Solihull could well go down this season. Neil Ardley left in the summer and I think it was because the budget was going in the wrong direction. All the key players have left and they look a side way weaker than last season. We are also talking about a side who didn't actually do that well anyway. New manager Andy Whing did a good job at Banbury, but winning a title at Step 3 is very different from managing at this level and to me he strikes me as the cheap option. If they were still going for promotion I don't think he would have got the job. Eastleigh haven't signed as well as I thought they might when it was announced Stewart Donald was coming back as owner, but they will still be going for the play-offs and this does look a very good game for them to get their season off to a winning start. I should add as well that they have still signed well, but I thought they might have spent even more cash than they have. One slight concern is they were poor away from home last season, but hopefully that wont matter here.   Prices from Sunday evening   Aldershot 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes (6/5 with Bet365 and take up to 4/5) AFC Fylde 2pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Boylesports and Ladbrokes (9/5 with Bet365 and take up to 11/8) Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred and Boylesports (Bet365 are 7/2 and take up to 5/2) Eastleigh 2pts @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Bet365 are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

After making such a huge profit last season from the ante-post bets the pressure is on to try and replicate it. Clearly that will be very tough, but only once have I not made a profit an the ante-post markets so confidence is high that will be the case again this season. 
National League After one of the most dramatic title battles we will ever see, we will no doubt move back to normality without the Hollywood duo around. Chesterfield no doubt will be glad to see the back of Wrexham and Notts County given they finished a distant 3rd and only just lost out to County at Wembley in the play-off final. In some ways they really ought to have won that game, but again I felt Paul Cook's tactics left a lot to be desired and they should have pushed harder for a 2nd goal as they really had County on the ropes. Instead they dropped off and give County enough of the ball and they will punish you in the end. I think the other thing to point out is they ought to have finished 3rd fairly comfortably, but they dropped some really silly points and only just edged ahead of Woking late on. Will Cook finally have learnt how to play the division? I'm not so sure myself and the way he decided to go to the dressing room whilst the penalty shootout was going on in the final wasn't a good look for me. How are the players expected to cope if the manager can't? He's meant to be the leader and as soon as the going got tough he was nowhere to be seen. They lacked goals at certain times last season and playing Quigley by himself upfront was never going to bring you goals. This season Will Grigg will be the man expected to get the goals and Cook has managed him before so that is a plus, but he's the type of striker who relies on the quality of ball that he gets and if that is lacking then he might not get as many goals as expected. Also it has been a few years since he was prolific in front of goal and whilst clearly down in level will help, it isn't something I like to see. Take Paul Mullin for example he was top scorer in League 2 when Wrexham signed him so he was at his peak. It isn't hard to think that Grigg might be on the way down. Having said all that, I do think they have just about the best squad in the division and I would also make them favourites. 6/1 was available in a couple of places when the league was priced up and that would have appealed e/w because they really ought to be in the top 3 at least, but they are now no bigger than 9/4 and quite frankly that price stinks. I just don't have them anywhere near as far clear as those odds suggest and I am more than happy to look elsewhere. The final point I want to make is that losing play-off finalists have a rotten record the following season. They remind me a lot like Tranmere when they lost the title to Macclesfield because they easily had the best side in the division that season, yet a slow start meant they blew the title and ended up going up via the play-offs. I can easily see them having to rely on the play-off route again to get out of the division.   The only other team in single figures are Oldham and again I am concerned about the manager. I was an Everton fan back in the 90s and I remember David Unsworth doing a great job at the back for them, but he didn't always convince me last season when he took over at Oldham. I watched a few of their games towards the back end and whilst they did finish the season well, I wasn't really taken by the performances. They clearly have money to spend though and they have really improved the squad so they really ought to be challenging for the title this time around. Fans are already split on Unsworth so if they do get off to a slow start then I fully expect them to get on his back and we would likely see a change at the top. Stockport proved a couple of seasons ago that a slow start and a change of manager isn't a hindrance to winning the league so whatever happens they really ought to be bang in contention.   Rochdale and Hartlepool were the two relegated sides from last season and they are both next in the betting. It has been proven time and time again how hard it is to go back up at the first time of asking and neither side look like they are going to challenge that rule. At the same time I would be surprised if either did a Scunthorpe and went down again, but the both look mid-table to fringe play-off contenders to me.   We then get to Woking who really ought to have punished Chesterfield for their slip-ups and finished 3rd (and land my e/w bet at 66/1 in the process), but I think at their first chance of being properly in play-off contention they were just found wanting late on. I think it was the same in the play-offs themselves as well as they blew a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 to Bromley. On the plus side last season should have given them plenty of experience of being contenders and I think they will improve this season. I'm a big fan of Darren Sarll and I think he realised he didn't need to do too much to the squad, but what he has done ought to improve them and given they were only just behind Chesterfield last season, I just don't see how one can be 9/4 and the other 14/1.   Not that is lasted long, but York were put into 100/1 by BetVictor when prices opened up and the odds compiler is a York fan as well.! Clearly he didn't see the input of money that was about to happen after the takeover by the Uggla family. They had tried to take over at Yeovil last season only for it to fall through. Not surprisingly they have been very well backed at big prices on the back of the signings especially spending 6 figures to buy Tyler Cordner and Dipo Akinyemi. I have a few issues with them though. First of all any value in the price has long gone for me. I'm not really sure I trust Uggla either. Something seemed off to me when he came in at Yeovil and I don't trust him to get things right at York. I'm also not sure they have the right man in place as manager to get the job done either. They have a huge squad at the moment and the Uggla has brought players with him from Yeovil who didn't look great for them this season. They could be a side I might look to back once the season starts depending on how they do, but I suspect they might need a season at least to get things right.   AFC Fylde are next in the betting which I find a little surprising. I think Adam Murray came in and did a really good job last season after the mistake of hiring James Rowe and keeping hold of Nick Haughton is a big boost for them. I can see them being possible play-off contenders, but I'd be surprised if they were title contenders.   We then come to Barnet and I think they have a massive chance. As much as I think xG stats can be a helpful tool now I also think you have to be very careful how you use them. Barnet on the stats massively over achieved, but I don't think they did at all. I'm a huge fan of Dean Brennan and I just think he got the very best out of his team. He made them very hard to beat and also they were so clinical in taking their chances when they came their way. Losing Ryan De Havilland is clearly a blow, but they have kept Nicke Kabamba and Zak Brunt should be a very good signing. Like Sarll at Woking, I think Brennan knows that he didn't need to do too much to the squad to keep them improving and the signings that he has made have improved the squad in my view. I think they have the potential to be title contenders this season.   Southend are next in the betting and they have been allowed to start the season, but I just don't know how anyone can back them given we still don't know if Ron Martin will actually sell the club and then how much money they will have to spend. They still have a transfer embargo against them at the time of writing so chances are they are only going to have a bare squad to start the season. They also have a huge threat of receiving a 10 point deduction if they haven't paid HRMC when they next go to court in just under a month. Amazingly they still have talented players at the club so if they can get things sorted and avoid a point deduction they might become a bet, but they should be double the price they are as things stand.   With Stewart Donald going back to Eastleigh they were on my radar when the season ended as a team I would be looking to back for the title this season. They really should have finished in the play-offs, but blew up massively in the final month of the season. Paul McCallum made his name at Eastleigh and he is back after ending up at Chesterfield last season. They need him to be scoring 20+ goals this season if they are to challenge. I was also quite surprised that some of the players who left were solid first teamers and I'm not sure they have made the sort of signings I expected them to make back when the season ended. I'm leaving them for now and will wait and see how they start the season.   Luke Garrard continues to do a great job at Boreham Wood, but I just wonder if he is going to be capable of getting them promotion. Fair play he has been very loyal, but I just get the sense that a change could do both manager and club a world of good. No doubt they will be in and around the play-offs again though, but I can't see them turning into title contenders. Bromley did well to get into the play-offs last season and again have a good manager in the shape of Andy Woodman. I'm not sure they look any better than last season though so can't see much progression if any. Dagenham lost a lot of key players over the summer and I'm not sure Strevens has done enough to replace them.   Two more sides worth mention for me at big prices. Gateshead ended the season in really good form and Mike Williamson has rightly earned rave reviews. It is a big jump though from where they finished last season to be title contenders and I think they might need another season to build up to that sort of level. It could be argued that Altrincham might need that as well. They really struggled after turning professional at the start of last season, but then some shrewd signings and it all clicked and at their best they looked very good. I think they have the squad to build on that first season as a professional team and for them to be outsiders and as big as 150/1 is just daft. At the very least I think they can finish in the top half and I would have them around the 33-40/1 mark. Therefore they have to be worth a very small punt at 3 figure price.   Sadly we don't have any relegation betting again, but I would be all over Solihull if it was available. They have lost their best players, Neil Ardley mysteriously left, but given he hasn't got another job it can only be because they have no money and replacement Andy Whing just strikes me as the cheap option. I expect them to struggle. I would be amazed if Oxford City didn't go down as they look way below the standard needed to survive.    So for the bets. I was toying about including Oldham based on Unsworth, but I do think they are slightly bigger than they should be so I will include them. Woking don't have much to find on Chesterfield at all and for me they are too big a price as I think they can improve again. The main bet though for me is Barnet. I rate Brennan as one of the best managers in the league and I think he has improved his squad again from last season. 22/1 is a crazy price in my view and I personally would have them shorter than a few teams above them in the betting. As mentioned above I will also be having a small, likely value loser, bet on Altrincham at huge odds.   National League North This division is all about Scunthorpe and I honestly thought they wouldn't be far off even money when the prices opened up. I'm amazed that 2/1 is still available and they really should win the league with ease. It took me by surprise the level of player they started buying in May and the squad Jimmy Dean has built is seriously impressive, indeed it is one that would be a play-off contender in the National League in my opinion. I've been told they have a League 1 budget and that doesn't surprise me. I must admit I'm not a big Jimmy Dean fan, but I'd fancy my chances of managing this team to win the title this season they have that much in hand on paper. Also there is the off the field issue of what is going to happen with the ground between the ex owner and the new owner, but I'm not sure that will hinder their progress although they do have a groundshare agreement in place should it be needed. This league looks really weak this season and quite frankly if they don't win the title I'm not sure they will ever get a better chance.   Chester drew too many games last season, but clearly they were very hard to beat and it wouldn't surprise me if they were the main rivals to Scunthorpe. I've seen people suggest Hereford are players, but they wouldn't be for me. Their manager says they have a bottom 8 budget and he's also unproven. I'm not sure their squad is anything special. Kings Lynn look weaker than last season to me so I can't see them being title contenders again. No doubt Brackley will be in and around the play-offs as usual, but hard to see this being the season when they finally get automatic promotion and I'm not sure on the choice of manager either. Boston look possible improvers after a tough season last time around and they have place claims. Buxton had a superb 2nd half of the season and if they can build on that then they can get into the play-offs this time around. I am not expecting my own side Gloucester to repeat their play-off spot this season, indeed I fear we may be in a relegation battle.   To be honest I completely understand if you only back Scunthorpe here, but I am going to have a small e/w play on Spennymoor who look over priced at 33/1. They were one of a whole host of sides who were in play-off contention last season and they have signed well over the summer and look to have a better side for the season ahead. A top 3 finish is a strong possibility for me so I will add a small e/w bet on them.   National League South Usually the National League North is stronger than the South and whilst Scunthorpe have the best side at either level, the NLS has way more depth to it this season and looks the strongest it ever has. As boring as it sounds I have to be with the relegated sides again here though in the shape of Torquay and Yeovil. I was really surprised at some of the players that Gary Johnson has been able to keep and they weren't far away from surviving last season. In fact I will go as far to say they really ought to have done. Gary Johnson has won this league with them before and I think he can do so again.   Yeovil stunk the place out last season and weren't helped at all from what was happening off the pitch. A takeover has now happened and it looks like the club are finally in a good place again. I'm a bit surprised Mark Cooper has stayed, but clearly he thinks they have a good chance of going back up and he has recruited well as well as keeping some of the better players from last season.   Eastbourne have been the movers in the betting after they were taken over during the summer and have now gone full time. I must admit though I haven't been wowed by the signings made so far and they certainly don't look as strong as the two relegated sides on paper so they wouldn't be for me at this stage. Dartford finished a distant 2nd to Ebbsfleet last season and whilst they are likely play-off contenders I can't have them as a title contender. Farnborough weren't far away from the play-offs last season and they have recruited well so if they sneaked into the top 3 I wouldn't be shocked. I can't have the other relegated side, Maidstone, at all. George Elokobi did a terrible job when he took over as manager last season and whilst they were always likely to go down, I just didn't see anything that would suggest he would be capable of getting them back up. My guess is he won't see the season out. Hampton have got interesting new owners and I can see them improving on what they did last season based on their squad.   If Havant went and won the league I would be very frustrated after being on them last season and them seemingly set for at least a top 3 finish, only for them to have a terrible 2023 and not even reach the play-offs. I can't be backing them again. I did back Worthing last season and they scored a huge 92 goals last term, but conceded 72 which stopped them from getting into the top 3. I am going to have a small e/w bet on them again though because I think they can build on that first season at this level and for me they might be the side who can take advantage if the ex League clubs don't deliver.    Isthmian League Not surprisingly Hornchurch have been put in as favourites and really they would have won the league if the lino at Horsham hadn't given the worst offside in the history of football. Mark Stimson leaving as manager was a big surprise and an even bigger surprise was getting Steve Morison in as manager. He clearly wont have been cheap and they look to have a very strong squad. I'm not sure they are much value at the prices though and I am going to look elsewhere.   Hands up, I don't like what Hashtag United stand for at all and I am also not sure their squad is near the required standard for this level either. They look way under priced as 2nd favs for me. I'm surprised Concord are so short in the betting as well because they were pretty rubbish last season in the league above and I can't see them challenging to go back up.   For me the main value is with Billericay and Dulwich. These two battled it out for the title a few years ago when a certain person was in charge at Billericay. Not surprisingly he left them in the mire and they ended up coming back down again. I'm not surprised they didn't make a play-off bid last season as the squad didn't look capable of doing so, but this time around they seem to be really going for it. Getting Gary McCann as manager was a good move and he has made plenty of good signings. I would have them clear 2nd in the betting just behind Hornchurch so they look a really good e/w price at 8/1. Dulwich should never got relegated last season, but they made a poor choice of manager after sacking Gavin Rose and they conceded way too many goals. Hakan Hayrettin came in too late to keep them up as the squad was way too soft for the battle as they showed on the final day of the season when they lost to Chippenham. He has got rid of the dead wood and recruited really well and given the level of support they have they really ought to be in title contention so again look a good e/w bet.   Out of the promoted sides I can see Chatham going well and possibly getting into the play-offs, but at the same price as them I am going to have small e/w bets on a couple of other sides. Cray did really well to reach the play-offs last season and I am a big fan of Neil Smith. He looks to have improved the squad over the summer so I am surprised they are 25/1. I am also going to back Lewes who ended the season in superb form. In their last 20 games only the two promoted sides and Canvey Island won more points than they did and it was a poor start to the season which hindered. They look well placed to build on that strong finish.   Southern Premier Central This doesn't look the strongest of leagues this season and I think Coalville look well placed to finally win promotion. I'm still not sure how they blew the title in the end as they had gained the upper-hand over Tamworth, but I wonder if the Cup runs just caught up with them late on. They look the best side in the division and at 6/1 I am happy to have a solid e/w bet on them as I can't see them finishing out of the top 3 at the very least.   Relegated AFC Telford, Kettering and Leamington don't make a huge amount of appeal at this stage, but given how weak the league is they might end up being contenders. Leiston did well last season but have lost all their best players and look way too short. I thought Mickleover could progress from their finish just outside the play-offs, but I want a double figure price so will leave them alone for now. Nuneaton were tempting and promoted Halesowen could go well also, but for now I will just stick with Coalville.   Southern Premier South Walton & Hersham are a pretty short price to win the league especially given they were promoted via the play-offs last season. They have a heavy social media presence which might have something to do with it, but they look to be relying very heavily on last seasons squad and that could be a mistake so I am more than happy to oppose at the prices. Bracknell also look poor 2nd favs as they lost their best players and look weaker than last season.    The main bet has to be AFC Totton although annoyingly the 66/1 they were put in at has long gone, but that was just a stupid price anyway. They were promoted as champions last season and have got a lot of experience in the side including Scott Rendell. They have signed well and have a decent budget on the back of decent average size crowds. They really strike me as a club on the up and clearly I'm not the only one who thinks so.   Chesham are on of the other bets. They are always either near the title race or in it and I think they can be again this season. Having Taskmaster as shirt sponsors isn't going to do any harm either as I suspect they will sell plenty on the back of that. The final bet is Salisbury who have under performed for a few seasons now. The signings over the summer though suggests they are going to give it a good go this time around and I'd fancy them to do better than some of those ahead of them in the betting so look a value bet.   National League Barnet 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair  Oldham 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair Woking 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 Altrincham 0.1pt e/w @ 100/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 150/1)    National League North Scunthorpe 4pts @ 2/1 with Bet365  Spennymoor 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes   National League South Torquay 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 done Yeovil 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 18/1)   Isthmian Premier Billericay 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Dulwich 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill  Lewes 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 and William Hill  Cray 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365   Southern Premier Central Coalville 2pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill   Southern Premier South AFC Totton 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Chesham 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365  Salisbury 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill  NB all prices were taken on Sunday (July 30th morning)

Shame we lost Casterton last week, but we have a fantastic card to look forward to at Warrnambool on Sunday morning with a few ex UK horses in action across the 6 races.
Race 1 In the 3 and a bit seasons I have been punting on Aussie jumps racing I don't remember seeing a 3yo run in a race, but that happens in the 1st division of the maiden hurdle. Gwem Goes Further has only had 4 starts on the flat and has had a couple of hurdle trials last month and it is the one here that interests me. Whilst you can never go overboard about the form he did have Bee Tee Junior and Wil John behind as well as Hogan who runs in this. What I liked about the effort is he jumped and well and given he was a bit keen early on his jockey let him stride out and he was still strong over the line. In a proper race he will want to settle a bit better, but he seemed to enjoy his jumping which is crucial. Hogan has been running OK on the flat and jumped well also but I prefer the 3yo.   The Rattlin' Bog is the market leader based on the 2nd to Teofilo Star over course and distance in May. The ground is going to be very different though and he looked booked for only 3rd when falling at 2 out at Hamilton. He was 6th in a flat race last week at Werribee.   Praise The Power has shown some ability so far with a 3rd at Casterton and then a 4th at Hamilton, but he will probably have to improve again to land this. Raise Your Sights bled on hurdles debut last year so we can ignore that effort, but he came into the race in better form on the flat than he does now. He was 2nd in a trial behind Stern Idol last time and jumped well, but the rest never really tried to catch him up so he might be flattered by that a bit.   I put up Capelliani last week and I have to do so again at a massive price. As I said then the concern is he's just lost his form totally, but on his hurdles form last year he would be a single figure price for this so I will take a chance and this doesn't look a strong race. Annoyingly we are down to 2 places though. The Rattlin' Bog is the right favourite, but as well as Capelliani I will be backing Gwem Goes Further as there was plenty to like about his hurdles trial last time and he had some good horses behind him.   Gwem Goes Further 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Capelliani 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill   Race 2 Le Baol is another ex-European horse going hurdling. He started life in France and won a listed race before having one start and well beaten by Trueshan in the Old Rowley Cup in October 2019. Just under a year later he won on his first start in Australia, but he hasn't won since. He has been in good form on the flat though as he was 4th in the Warrnambool Cup in May and then he ran really well at Flemington last time when 4th behind Port Guillaume. There was a really strong wind that day and he was stuck on the outside feeling the full force of it so he comes out with plenty of credit. He jumped well in his last trial so that shouldn't be an issue.   Dashing Willoughby has another go over hurdles, but I was a bit disappointed with him over course and distance a couple of weeks ago and I don't think here was any improvement from his Hamilton 2nd. I think he might need a weaker race.    Mount Stewart is interesting as he landed a bumper for Shaun Crawford at Newcastle in November 2020 beating Tommy's Oscar into 2nd place. They then sold him for £80k to current connections and he won on debut in Oz at Coleraine in August 2021. Not surprisingly he was sent off an odds on fav on his hurdles debut at Ballarat, but after travelling really well into the race he didn't respond to pressure. However he was found to be lame after the race and he wasn't seen again until a jumpout in May so clearly it was a bad injury to keep him off for so long. He only beat one home on the flat at Geelong last month, but it wasn't a bad run for his first proper race back. I thought he trialled nicely 4 days later as well as he saw the trial out well and jumped well. He might need the run, but I think it is very interesting that they are going straight back over hurdles with him rather than give him another flat run.   Nothin' Leica High ran well at Sale last time in handicap company when 2nd, but that was a weak race and this is stronger on paper. South Pacific ran well enough to finish 3rd at Hamilton just behind Dashing Willoughby. He landed the 2019 King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and whilst he isn't as good now if he improves for that first hurdles run he's not without a chance.   I can fully understand why Le Baol is odds on for this and he's the most likely winner, but I think Mount Stewart is worth backing e/w. He was looking very good before going lame at Ballarat and whilst he might need another run, he has the potential to be a really good horse over jumps so I will take a chance on him at a fair price.   Mount Stewart 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill   Race 3 This is a handicap for horses that have won once over hurdles. That usually is a maiden win, but Bedford won a 0-114 hurdle at Coleraine last August. He'd need to improve on tat and has yet to be seen over hurdles this season, but to be fair he did run well on the flat 3 weeks ago at Mornington. Speaking of the flat Frankenstar ran over 3600m on Thursday at Bendigo when finishing a good 4th. He beat King's Charisma at Hamilton on his hurdles debut and then was a little disappointing over course and distance when 4th. I'm not sure that form is good enough although you could argue that Rising Renown is overpriced based on it. King's Charisma went onto win a course and distance maiden a couple of weeks ago although I'm not sure how strong the form is.   The favourite is Impulsar and he was well touted ahead of winning a maiden here in May in decent enough style. He then went into handicap company at Sandown and was a big disappointment finishing a well beaten 6th. Clearly you need to forgive that effort to want to back him here, but I think it is worth doing so as I suspect he is the best horse in the race and outside of him I think the race is quite trappy.   Impulsar 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365   Race 4 The Lafferty Hurdle sees the return of Wil John who turned out to be a superb hurdler in 2021 when he won 3 including the previous race on this card. The final win came in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown when beating Inayforhay and Instigator who both reoppose here. After that he won a good race at Caulfield and took out the longest flat race in Australia, the Jericho Cup, over 4600m at Warrnambool. He sadly got injured which meant he had to miss last year. He has been working his way back to fitness with trials and runs on the flat since the end of February and I liked the way he trialled last week here. For me the only question if he will be fit enough because I think he's the best horse in the race.    His main rival ought to be Circle The Sun who has looked really impressive this season by winning 3/3 over hurdles including the Australian Hurdle last time. A couple of weeks ago he went back to the flat here and was just beaten into 2nd place so he continues to be in good form. Still that was a 0-58 and it is nowhere near the level Wil John has shown on the flat. Clearly though he is a much better hurdler and will have the fitness edge.   Instigator, Blandford Lad, Fabalot and Cleaver are all just behind in the betting, but I would be surprised if any of those were good enough. They are all solid horses who have been running well this season, but they all have a bit to find to beat either of the other two.   The other interesting runner for me though has to be Bell Ex One. I've done my money on him both hurdle starts this season as he ran a shocker 1st up and then unseated at the7th when still going well at Hamilton. He's had a flat run since where his jockey kicked for home plenty early enough and he got caught in the closing stages by San Remo who has won again since. As I keep saying after his 3rd at Cheltenham last year I thought he had the potential to be the best hurdler in Australia and so he proved by beating Stern Idol in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat. Clearly he's not run up to that level over hurdles this season, but if he shows that form he's got a huge chance of winning this and I can't let him go unbacked at a double figure price.   The main bet though will be Wil John as I'm such a big fan and I think he will be fit enough to take this.   Wil John 1.5pts @ 13/5 with Bet365 Bell Ex One 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with everyone   Race 5 Duke Of Bedford is favourite for the BM120 Steeplechase, but I am happy enough to take him on. Don't get me wrong he was impressive when winning a maiden at Hamilton a month ago and he beat Gunaluva who did come out and win over this course and distance a couple of weeks ago, but that was a really poor contest and we have some battle hardened chasers so this will be a much stiffer test for the favourite. I'm surprised how short Gunaluva is as well.   Brungle Bertie is just 2nd in the betting and he did pretty well last season winning over hurdles and on his final start of the season winning a BM120 on the final day at Ballarat. He did it well that day, but Laylite was in 2nd and the form isn't overly strong although I would rate him above the other two mentioned above. He might need this though as he's only had two flat starts in May and June plus 2 trials so I suspect he will come on for the run.   Roland Garros is solid and the 2nd last time at Hamilton was good in the context of this race even if he was beaten 7L, but I am going to side with my old favourite Under The Bridge. He under-performed in that Hamilton race last time, but he's better than that and the 2nd to Tolemac over course and distance in May was a really good effort and he had Roland Garros in behind that afternoon. I think he does particularly well at Warrnambool so I am hopeful he can run up to his best here and if he does I think he can win this. Hopefully at the very least he is a solid e/w bet.   Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with everyone   Race 6 The feature steeplechase is the Thackeray and it looks a cracking renewal. Flying Agent was a great 2nd in the Brierly here in May and I do think this track is where he is at his best. He went to Sandown for the Australian Chase after that and he was a disappointing 5th behind Tolemac. He had a solid run on the flat last week at Werribee and he should be a big player here.   Rockstar Ronnie won a hell of a lot more money when he landed the Grand Annual than he did when winning at Warwick for Dan Skelton last May and he has been a superb purchase for connections. I suspect though this will be a prep run for him ahead of the Crisp and the Grand National next month which are both over longer than this. Clearly though if he did win it wouldn't be a huge surprise.    It was a real shame we lost Casterton last week and Elvison runs here instead, but I can't have him away from his favourite track, especially in a field as strong as this. I do fancy the Wilde stable to win this though in the shape of Tolemac. He was punted heavily ahead of his chasing debut and duly bolted up over course and distance in May beating Under The Bridge by 8L. He then went to Sandown in the Australian Chase and bolted up there as well beaten Riding High by 12L. He was really impressive in both victories and clearly a return to Warrnambool on a Heavy 10 holds no fears for him. Over this trip I think he looks the best chaser in Australia this season so I think he can win this. I will have a small saver on Flying Agent though as he looks the main danger to me and a bit over priced.   Tolemac 1.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365 Flying Agent 0.5pts @ 10/3 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair

We go to Hamilton on Tuesday morning for the next jumps meeting. There are 5 races on the card with 2 divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle, a maiden steeplechase and a handicap steeplechase. It's not the easiest punting card, but we have some very competitive races. Also as Oddschecker doesn't have the meeting up yet these are all Bet365 prices and bigger might be available elsewhere.
Race 1 Abreed was a bit disappointing on debut, but that was a hot maiden and he was much better at Casterton a couple of weeks ago when a good 2nd to Killourney having been on the pace for most of the race. Chance the Heavy 10 ground was to blame at Pakenham, but he has won on a Heavy track before so that shouldn't be an issue.   Field If Lights made his hurdles debut at Warrnambool 2 years ago and was beaten just 0.4L into 3rd place. He clearly got an injury because he wasn't seen for 101 weeks. He seems to have been working his way to fitness and was a good 4th in the Casterton Cup 2 years ago. With that good run behind him he is a chance based on his hurdles debut.   Frankenstar is making his hurdles debut and he won a BM58 over 2440m at Geelong a month ago.  He did win a hurdles trial at Terang just before and jumped well in that and although he was 6th in a trial at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago he wasn't really asked for an effort.   King's Charisma ran well to finish 2nd to Pure Deal at Warrnambool on his hurdles debut and he has won a trial back there since. He lost to Pure Deal that day and whilst he was beaten last week at Sandown I still think that was a good effort.   Saint Eustace was 5th when Pure Deal was 3rd at Pakenham on his hurdles debut and hasn't been seen anywhere since. His trainer/jockey said he would look to ride him closer to the pace in future and given his flat form it would be no surprise if he improved from that effort.   The last one to consider is The Rattlin' Bog who was beaten 8L by Teofilo Star into 2nd place on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool. That's looking a good run given how impressive Teofilo Star was at Sandown last week.   I think this is a tough race to call as you can make a case for any of the above, but I think at the prices Saint Eustace is worth a small bet. He has top class flat form and it was a solid debut at Pakenham last time. If Pateman rides him closer to the pace then I am expecting improvement to come.   Saint Eustace 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365   Race 2 Australian middle distance flat racing often gets rubbished on Twitter by people who know little about it and they always highlight something like Zaaki suddenly winning Group 1's. What they don't realise is numerous horses go from here to Australia and the vast majority don't do very much and Dashing Willoughby is firmly in the later camp. He won the Group 3 Henry II Stakes in July 2020 at Sandown and was sent over for the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. He was last at Caulfield and beat 2 home at Flemington. In 11 runs since he has been terrible and not beaten very many horses. I watched his last hurdles trial, and he didn't jump well to start with, but got better the longer the trial went on.   It will be interesting to see how he gets on, but it is no surprise that True Marvel is the long odds on favourite. 2 starts back he finished 2nd in the Group 1 Sydney Cup at 150/1. That clearly was a huge run and he was OK last time when 8th in the Andrew Ramsden. I liked the way he jumped in his hurdle trial at Terang. He's too short to have a bet on, but he really should be winning this based on his flat form.   Race 3 I guess there is a chance Bell Ex One has gone the wrong way and I can't be as confident as I was ahead of his Casterton run, but he has to be the bet here. Just to remind people that he finished 3rd in last year's Fred Winter at Cheltenham and was superb in his hurdles debut in Oz last August. For me the Casterton effort looked a fitness run and hopefully he can show how good he is here. Even with top weight he will win this if at his best.   Post Guillaume is favourite, but he's been a bit disappointing the last twice and I want to see more before he is of interest. Twin Spinner is fairly consistent and although he was a well beaten 3rd behind Teofilo Star last weekend, it was a fair return to hurdles. If Abreed wins the first then that will be a big form boost to Killourney who put in a nice performance to beat him at Casterton. Even so I'm not sure he warrants being so short here.   Bell Ex One 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365   Race 4 There are only 2 maiden steeplechases during the season and this is the first one. There is a few in with a chance in what is an open race and I will take two against the field. Granted Tom Foolery was really pushed out in his trail at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago and Furioso wasn't given as a strenuous ride, but he was still impressive in beating him by 18L. I really like the way he jumped the fences though and I thought he ran a nice race last time when 3rd behind Killourney at Casterton. Given Furioso is the favourite I think the value certainly lies with Tom Foolery The other one worth a small bet is Mighty Oasis. He was 2nd behind Historic at Warrnambool in March and then was a bit disappointing when 6th at Pakenham. The run that caught my eye though was at Warrnambool when he was just getting himself into contention when he fell at 3 out. Obviously hard to know where he would have finished, but that was a strong race and he has run a nice race on the flat since so seems in good form.    Tom Foolery 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365 Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365   Race 5 Competitive handicap chase this. Riding High has top weight and he ran well to finish 2nd in the Australia Chase last weekend and he'd run a solid 4th in the Brierly prior to that. The issue is he has never been placed in 6 starts on a Heavy track and that might stop him along with the weight.   Historic won this race last year and having won a weak race at Warrnambool in March he finished 2nd to Casterton specialist Elvison a couple of weeks ago. For me though this race is stronger than last year's running and he might be a bit too high in the weights to win a race like this now, but he should run his race.   Roland Garros would be an apt winner given the French Open is going on at the moment. He has been a bit in and out over fences, but although he was 14L when 3rd behind Tolemac and Under The Bridge at Warrnambool, I thought it was a nice run for his first start over fences this prep. You would imagine he will come for the run and he has won a trial since.   Castrofrancaru won both hurdle starts last season and it is interesting they are going straight over fences with him this season. He comes here in good form as he won a BM58 on the flat at Kyneton earlier in the month. He then had a first steeple trial at Traralgon and whilst he jumped well on the whole he did jump out to his right a bit. It wasn't really bad, but against some experienced chasers it might not help him first up over fences in a proper race.   I really liked Hurry Cane's win at Pakenham where he beat Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He was only 6th behind him at Warrnambool, but he just didn't stay the 5500m trip. He drops back to 3400m here and he thrives on a Heavy track so has plenty in his favour.   The other one to consider is Under The Bridge who ran a solid race on his chasing return over 3200m here in April. He then went to Warrnambool and was 2nd to his stablemate Tolemac who franked the form at Sandown last weekend. He was 8L in front of Roland Garros that day and whilst that one does have the scope to improve fitness wise, I still think Under The Bridge has a very good chance of upholding the form.   So from those 6 I am going to whittle it down to two. Hurry Cane just didn't stay in the Grand Annual and I think his Pakenham win should make him favourite for this. The other one to back is Under The Bridge who has run really solidly in both starts this season and given what Tolemac did at Sandown, there was nothing wrong in being 8L behind him.   Hurry Cane 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 Under The Bridge 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

Last race at Aintree is a point-to-point bumper for horses that have run in British points. I have gone through every runner.   Achtung Baby - Was 3rd in a point bumper at Bangor in March when after being held up in last for half the trip he then moved forward and was 2nd with a couple of furlongs left before finishing 3rd. He was 4L behind Thank You Ma'am who finished 3rd in the Exeter contest. That would suggest to me that he won't be good enough for this and he showed little in a 2m4f maiden over Easter when pulling up.   Cadell - His owner was training him for his two point wins in March and April both at Overton. Comments after the race mention that he has been very slow to come to hand and he has shown that in both his races so far. In his Maiden win he was outpaced before finishing strongly to win. The 2nd has done nothing at all for the form since and sadly had to be put down last time, but the 3rd was Baron Briggs who you may remember ran in the Buccleuch Cup at Kelso last month and showed he had an engine, but jumped terribly and he finished 3rd. He only had one rival last time and did look in trouble turning for home, but he won easy in the end and took some pulling up. That rival though was pulled up in the Heart Of All England at Hexham last week so it doesn't really tell us much about how good he actually is. I suspect he is good enough to win this, but given his greeness so far you just have to wonder if in a bigger field over a shorter trip if he might get going when it is too late.   Douglas Longbottom - Had 1 run in a Larkhill bumper last year when a well beaten 5th, but has clearly needed time as he was off for a year until finishing 3rd at Badbury Rings. He was really well backed that day though from 10/1 into 2/1F so obviously he was expected to go better. That was over 3m and he dropped back to 2m4f when he finished 3rd again the following month. He didn't look a natural over fences in that race, but it was clear he had an engine. Easter Monday he finally broke the maiden tag at Cothelstone and again he didn't jump efficiently, but he beat the even money favourite by an easy 10L in the end. This race was mentioned as the target after that win and I do get the feeling he will be seen to better effect without any fences in the way at the moment, so for me he is a possible winner.   Fly Awhile Johnny - Has shown very little to date and would be a shock winner.   Grandpa's Folly - Was a promising 2nd when making his debut in a point bumper at Brafield in March when a 3L 2nd to Roseburg. He stayed on nicely that day, but he didn't build on that when going over fences in a 2m4f maiden at Dingley 3 weeks ago. Maybe bumpers will be more his thing and if he was coming here on the back of the debut effort, he'd be a shorter price.   It's Unbelievable - Was a 20L 4th in debut at Alnwick and then showed wayward tendencies when a 15L 2nd to Take It Upstairs at Mosshouses. He went hung badly round the bend out of the straight and you do wonder if he might do the same tonight. It was a fair effort, but the winner quickened away from him very nicely in the closing stages and even under these very different conditions (Mosshouses is a testing track and the ground was testing as well) I can't see the form being reversed.   Supreme Johnson - Was a tailed off 7th at Exeter and in 3 runs since over 3m he has pulled up twice and 3rd of 4 in between those two runs. Tongue-tie goes on for the first time but it would need to work a miracle for me.   Wottinger - Looks a bit short in the betting to me based on what he's done so far. Ran wide at a bend on debut in a bumper at Alnwick in January and ended up finishing 3rd. Has been 2nd in 2 2m4f maidens since, both last month, but he looked in need of further not shorter and others have shown better form so far.   Penniless - Won her first 2 starts over here at Charing and Parham, but don't think either were strong races and the 2nd ran out at 2 out in the latter win and it would have been a good race between the 2. The winning time that day was very slow and she wasn't great at High Easter last time. I suspect she wont be good enough.   Roseburg - Was a well beaten 3rd behind Clover All Over who did win the Exeter contest and she looked like she would benefit form the run which is exactly what happened when she won at Brafield in March. Her jockey said she has a high cruising speed and that he was expecting them to get to him, but she found more again. Her trainer expects her to keep improving and will be an even better horse next year, but she might well land this first.   Delilah Bucks - Was promoted to 3rd on debut at Sandon over Easter and given there were 4 horses separated by a length it is hard to know what the form is worth. The winning time was 7 seconds slower than the first division though and all 4 horses were carrying 13lbs less. Maybe she wasn't able to show her true ability because of that, but for me the percentage call is to oppose.   Hazels Delight - Won a 2m4f mares maiden in comfortable fashion at Cothelstone in March, but it wasn't a strong contest despite the big field and she was given a pretty low rating on the back of it. The time was slow as well. You always have to respect a young horse from the Poste yard, but I prefer others to win this.   Saunton Surf - Only had 3 rivals to beat on debut at Maisemore at the end of March but she did so in dominate fashion. Hard to know what she beat in that bumper, but the 3rd had finished a good 2nd on debut so that adds a little bit of substance to the form. Clearly the trainer knows what he's doing and I did like the way she quickened away from them. Looks a leading contender.   Take It Upstairs - Got hampered at about half way at Alnwick on debut and then still looked green in the finish when finishing 2nd. They pulled a long way clear of the 3rd and then as mentioned above she quickened away in really nice style to easily beat It's Unbelievable at Mosshouses. On balance I think it was probably the most impressive performance I saw whilst looking at the videos, but this will be a very different test as both those tracks are undulating and have stiff climbs.   Verdict - I think this could be a decent renewal of this race and there could be a few horses worth following going forwards. Take It Upstairs, Saunton Surf, Roseburg, Douglas Longbottom and Cadell look the ones to concentrate on for me. Cadell could win, but he's priced up on connections rather than what he's actually achieved so I'm happy to look elsewhere. As I say just above I did think Take It Upstairs put in the most impressive performance and whilst this will be a different test I have to have her covered. I think Douglas Longbottom is the one that is really over priced at double figure odds as he has clearly been showing plenty at home given the way he has been backed in points. The way he jumps fences though is hindering him at the moment and this test could be much more suitable at this stage of his career. Roseburg is next on the list as she looks progressive and will continue to improve with experience. Saunton Surf just misses out as I think she is about the right price now.   Take It Upstairs 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 9/2) Douglas Longbottom 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365  (take up to 9/1) Roseburg 0.5pts e/w @10/1 with most bookies including Bet365 to 4 places (Hills are 11/1 for 3 places take up to 7/1)

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.
Onto the final day of the Carnival and after the very wet and windy weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we are looking at very testing conditions and the 5500m of the Grand Annual is really going to take some getting. The other jumps race on the card is the Champion Novice which gets the meeting underway.
Race 1
Not surprisingly Nelson heads the betting for the Champion Novice having won both hurdles starts to date. Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He then went to Pakenham last month and I tried to take him on because I was slightly worried about him on a Heavy 10, but he went through the ground absolutely fine and was a pretty impressive winner. 
Port Guillaume is an Ex French horse and until he won over hurdles at Ballarat last August his previous win was in a G2 at Deauville in August 2020 and that came on the back of him finishing 5th in the French Derby. It hasn't quite gone his way on the level in Oz, but he did it well at Ballarat and had Furioso in behind in 3rd. I thought his form on heavy ground might give him the advantage at Pakenham over Nelson, but he was only fair in being beaten 7L into 3rd. He didn't exactly look like he would be reversing the form anytime soon although you would imagine he will strip fitter again. 
Sky Hero is in single figures and won over course and distance in a Heavy 10 last June and got his 2nd win in April at Hamilton. As much as he's a solid enough horse he doesn't look to have the quality of Nelson. Cotton Eye Joe was also a winner at Hamilton of a maiden, but that form doesn't look as strong as Nelson's for me. 
Pure Deal (now a non runner) has to be mentioned as he landed the first race on day 1 and whilst I thought Pateman rode King's Charisma too confidently and that he might well have won if he hadn't, you can't knock the performance of Pure Deal and he built on his 3rd at Pakenham. This will be a tough test just 2 days later though with the ground much worse. What I don't understand is why the horse who beat him at Pakenham, Circle The Sun, is so much bigger in the betting. Teofilo Star bolted up in the 2nd division of the maiden to add to Pure Deal's win so the form of the Pakenham race looks rock solid. I do think he was racing on the better ground which helped, but clearly he looks overs here.
I do think Nelson is going to be hard to beat and he is the main bet, but I can't help but have a small e/w play on Circle The Sun because I would have him shorter in the betting than he is.
Nelson 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
Circle The Sun 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill
Race 7
The big race of the week is the Grand Annual and it sees the most impressive horse I have seen since focusing on Aussie jumps racing Stern Idol bid to win his first big one. He came over from France and looked some horse in winning his first two hurdles in Oz by 27L and 15L. He then went to Ballarat and was actually beaten by Bell Ex One who had finished 3rd at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Sadly Bell Ex One hasn't run at Warrnambool as I can't wait to see him back over hurdles, but Stern Idol has since gone over fences. He looked some jumper of a fence in his trials and he backed that up at Pakenham last month when beating a few of today's rivals with ease. The only question you can have over him is the trip as we just don't know if he will see out the 5500m distance. He didn't seem quite as keen as was last season at Pakenham which will help him, but if he stays he will win.
Vanguard ran was the winner of the Brierly last year when just getting the better of this year's winner and his stablemate Britannicus. That looked a great prep run for this race, but he was very unfortunate to slip up less than half way during the race. He was injured in the fall as well so wasn't seen again until this year where he had some trials and a flat run leading into finishing 4th at Pakenham. He has been trained with this race in mind though and he won a trial a few days later. His trainer skipped the Brierly with him this year to focus on this race and it would not surprise me to see him run much better than he did at Pakenham.
Crosshill was trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. He beat Grand National 2nd Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia and it was this race they had in mind. He had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus prior to finishing 3rd at Pakenham behind Stern Idol. I thought he was given a very quiet ride that day and he was never going to give a horse like Stern Idol that much ground and beat him. He should be spot on for today and whilst the trip in the ground is an unknown he has plenty of class.
Police Camp deserves a mention as he ran so well to finish 2nd in this last year. He ran pretty well in the Brierly and whilst he might not be good enough to win if he did hit the frame it wouldn't be a surprise.
Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. I was massively worried about the testing ground for him when making his Aussie jumps debut at Pakenham last month because he had been a non runner when the ground had turned soft over here and connections had been keen to keep him to good ground. I thought he came up a bit short in the ground at Pakenham when 3rd to Hurry Cane and with it likely to be even more testing here that has to be a big concern.
Speaking of Hurry Cane he is the last one worth a mention. This ex New Zealand runner has been aimed at this race and I wasn't surprised he came on plenty for his hurdle run at Hamilton when beating Epizeel and Rockstar Ronnie at Pakenham. He looks like he will stay and a heavy track isn't an issue at all. He looks a player in this.
Stern Idol could win this and prove himself to be the best chaser in the country, but whilst we have an unknown about the trip I don't see any value in backing him at very short odds. Therefore I will back a couple e/w to try and hit the places at least. Vanguard shouldn't be double figures for me because he looks all about stamina and the fact he won the Brierly last year proves he loves this track. Clearly very unlucky in this race 2 days later I think he can is going to come forward for the Pakenham run as this has been his target race. Crosshill is also double figures and I can't let him go unbacked either. His Irish form is good enough to make him a leading player in Oz and his run last time looked to be all about giving him a nice prep for this. Maybe it is futile trying to get Stern Idol beat and if he does win then I will certainly be saluting a champion.
Crosshill 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Vanguard 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Just the 2800 words to the Aintree Foxhunters' preview and quite a few of them are saved for the horse I think will win the race. Hopefully it will help you with you selection for the first race over the big Grand National fences this week.
Ami Desbois - Had some good form last season wining a good hunter chase at Newbury and then finishing 2nd at Cheltenham over a trip that was too short. This season he pulled up behind Fier Jaguen on his return at Chaddesley Corbett and then got very tired at Southwell when a well beaten 4th. Looks past his best and I suspect he will get outpaced.
Bennys King - Has more letters than numbers next to his name, but has looked very good in when winning two hunter chases at Hereford and Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He beat Magic Saint at Hereford and I think that is very strong form. He unseated in the Walrus when still going well at Haydock and then had little trouble beating a weak field at Fakenham. If he gets round he has place claims, but his jumping is a concern and he will do well to be in the front rank as he was in his previous 3 races.
Coastal Tiep - Been behind Vaucelet twice and then well behind Ferns Lock this season after missing the whole of 2021. He didn't jump that well at Thurles last time and whilst he was a 17L 4th in this in 2019 it is hard to se him improving on that this time around.
Cousin Pascal - Caused a massive shock when landing this at 66/1 in 2021, but was only 5th last year and he doesn't look in the same form coming into this year's race. He has won a couple of points, but he ran no sort of race when pulled up behind Bennys King at Hereford and then was a 41L 2nd to Espoir De Teillee at Leicester last time. Clearly he likes Aintree, but he I can't fancy him at all this year.
Dalahast - Been well beaten by some of these already this season and has no chance.
Dento Des Obeaux - Was being beaten in maiden hunter chases in 2021 before finishing 2nd a couple of times in handicaps off 104 and 95. Went missing for 569 days before return in February with 1 2nd in an Irish point. He then won a winner of two comfortably, but the 2nd has been beaten from a lowly mark over hurdles since. He then walked over before bolting up by 22L in a maiden hunter chase. As impressive as he looked at Thurles I do think that form is very weak and it turned out to be a real stamina test which is going to be very different to this.
Dieu Vivant - A horse who often flatters to deceive as he promises a lot more than he actually achieves. The only hunter chases he has managed to win is when he race has fallen apart and he couldn't not win and he has finished twice again already this season. Whilst I can't possibly have him winning this does look the type of race he could run OK in so I wouldn't be surprised if he did outrun his odds.
Dorking Cock - I suspect this test will suit him better than Cheltenham where he didn't really make much of an impact before pulling up. Even so it does tend to suggest he struggles at this level having been well beaten at Punchestown last year. If he could run up to his two efforts at Down Royal the last two seasons when winning and then just being pipped by Vaucelet then he would have a small chance.
Drop Flight – Had some useful form in France, but also had some wayward tendencies which he did show prior to the start on his UK debut at Taunton where he ended up finishing a fairly well beaten 3rd although he did at one stage look like doing worse than that. To be fair he has been well behaved since and was a staying on 2nd to Envoye Special before filling the same spot at Newbury. You wonder if the big crowd might affect him mentally, but I would imagine he will take the fences and he can finish about midfield.
Envoye Special – A quirky horse who tends to find little off the bridle. He was still able to win at Cheltenham last year when beaten fellow bridle merchant Envious Editor and then at Ffos Las when given a very good ride by James King. He was well beaten by Magic Saint at Wincanton last time though and that suggests he shouldn’t be good enough for this.
Famous Clermont – Turning for home at Cheltenham I thought he was going to finish 3rd at worse, but after getting a fantastic ride by Will Biddick, he just failed to see out the trip on the run-in and he slowed so much he ended up finishing 6th. Crucially though his jumping was very good and the best I have seen him jump under rules so hopefully the Grand National fences won’t be an issue although you never know if a horse will take to the fences until they try it. This shorter trip is ideal for him and I can imagine that he will settle in just behind the leaders before trying to pounce late on. If he is over his Cheltenham exertions, then I don’t see how he isn’t involved in the finish.
Fier Jaguen – The 2 best horses I have seen from the UK this season are Famous Clermont and Fier Jaguen. Obviously, the former could be seen by everyone, but Fier Jaguen will only have been seen by a few. I was lucky enough to see his seasonal return in person at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and his performance blew me away. It was just a staggering effort where he made all the running and to my eye wasn't exactly going quick, but he made every horse in the race pull up apart from 1 who plugged on for 2nd once the jockey saw others had pulled up at 2 out. The ground was only good to soft so it wasn't like it was bottomless conditions and it was a strong field. Ami Desbois tried to keep up with him and pulled up at 2 out, Al Shahir did the same and ended up bursting a blood vessel, Monbeg Chit Chat is a hunter chase winner and he was well beaten when he fell, Muckamore was a mid 120s horse under rules and he pulled up and finally Zee Man, who as has run well in a couple of hunter chases and won a point on Easter Monday, was another to pull up at 2 out. Some people tried to crab the performance because the time, but it didn't need to be for me to know what a good performance it was.
On his next start this season at Revesby Park I didn't have the fortune to be there, but I have watched the video and whilst there was only 4 runners he still faced some decent horses in the shape of Dundrum Wood and Pont Aven who was 6th at last year's Festival. Well Pont Aven tried to go with him, but ended up pulling up at 2 out whilst Dundrum Wood was beaten 60L in 2nd. He boosted the form at Alnwick as he won a couple of weeks ago. This time though he wasn't just visually impressive, he also clocked a very high speed figure. In the Go Pointing email which the official website send out for free each week they have a speed ratings section and his figure was 141 and the author had to go back to 2003 to find another rating as high as that.  
He was due to run in a hunter chase at Leicester last month, but the meeting was called off so instead he ran in another point at Ston Easton and again he was really impressive making all and beating Luke Harvey’s Notre Pari, who won on Easter Monday, by 25L and it could have been further. This time his speed rating was 140.
I backed him to beat Gats And Co at Chepstow on his only hunter chase so far, but he was just pipped in the final strides having jumped out to his right for most of the way. Clearly that is a concern here, but he is jumping straighter this season and he wings his fences so hopefully his jumping won’t stop him. What will help is that he will be making the running so will be out of trouble and it will just be a case if something is able to catch him on the run-in.
I K Brunel – Was given a fantastic ride by Izzie to beat Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but she was then unseated from him at the 10th at Cheltenham. As much as the ride was good at Taunton I did think it was a very good performance from the horse at the same time. That might be a blessing in disguise as he didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham and this contest might be more suitable for him. Alan Hill has done well in this race before with Clondaw Westie and he has more class than that horse so he is a live outsider for me
Its On The Line – Ran a fantastic race to finish 2nd at Cheltenham behind Premier Magic, but everything points to him needing a test of stamina and whilst he might be running on again as he did at Cheltenham, it usually pays to be handy at Aintree so I suspect he will find himself too far back.
Latenightpass – Was 2nd in this in 2021 after finishing 4th at Cheltenham so connections decided to skip Cheltenham last year and just focus on this race and the plan worked a treat as he beat Cat Tiger to win. He has just been kept to points again and was beaten by Shantou Flyer at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas before winning easily at Alnwick. Last month he made slightly hard work to beat Royal Chant by a neck, but it was only a 3 runner race which wont have helped. On what he’s shown so far this season he needs to improve a fair bit, but clearly he has been trained with this race in mind and whilst I won’t be backing him he has a leading chance.
Lough Derg Spirit – Was fairly decent for Nicky Henderson and did have one run for Paul Nicholls back in July 2020. Went missing after that until last February when hacking up in an Irish point. Been beaten on his first 4 starts this season though and only won a 3 runner point after that. Was flattered by his proximity to Ferns Lock at Gowran last time and he looks to have a bit to find for me.
Magic Saint – Got up to a mark of 159 when a handicapper and ran OK off 143 on his first run of the season in January at Wincanton. Was then switched to hunter chases and ran well to just be beaten by Bennys King at Hereford, before winning as he liked at Wincanton. This will be tougher, but he travelled and jumped really well at Wincanton and he wouldn’t be a surprise winner.
Matts Commission – Won a point last time, but as much as he has shown he might find a hunter chase at some point he has been beaten by horses who wouldn’t be winning this and will be outclassed here.
Not That Fuisse – Has done well since going hunter chasing winning 3 times last season and then winning first time up at Wetherby. Didn’t get the greatest luck or ride when 2nd to I K Brunel at Taunton, but he may not have won anyway. This sort of trip used to be ideal, but I think he needs a bit further now and his hold up style doesn’t usually work round the Grand National course. Also the softer the ground the lesser his chance.
Reikers Island – Finished a very creditable 7th in this race last year but was still beaten 39L and he was tailed off in a point last time so he is highly unlikely to improve on that 7th.
Rewritetherules – Wouldn’t win even if he started now.
Sir Jack Yeats – Been 8th and 6th in this race in 2018 and 2019 and then did well handicapping, but it is clear he isn’t the horse he was and was easily put in his place by Bennys King at Fakenham last time.
Sixteen Letters – A very likeable and consistent horse, but he was well beaten by Famous Clermont last May and then again on New Years Day and whilst he should get round he shouldn’t be good enough to play a part in the finish.
Step Back – Thought he ran very well at Taunton when 4th and looking like he needed a stiffer test of stamina which he got at Carlisle when finishing 2nd. He likes to make the running and I struggle to see him being quick enough to do so and that is going to harm his chances, plus he would probably rather they were running the Grand National trip.
Time Leader – Won as he liked in two hunter chases at Leicester and Stratford and whilst they were weak races it was hard not to be impressed. Quite why his trainer decided to run him at Carlisle 6 days after the Stratford run I don’t know as he looked on paper like he would be a non-stayer especially in the ground and that is how it proved. His trainer did cause a shock with Cousin Pascal and this horse is a really good jumper. Whilst I don’t expect him to be good enough, he will certainly run a hell of a lot better than he did at Carlisle.
Wagner – Did really well in the early part of last season for his previous connections, but he then found life a bit tough in the 2nd part of the season. Did win at 1/8 at Higham in February but has been well beaten either side of that and is unlikely to be fighting out the finish.
Winged Leader – Was very unlucky not to win the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase last season when just getting pipped by Billaway at the end. David Christie reported he had been slow to come to hand this season so he has been kept to points so far and he has won all 3. Couldn’t really do anymore than he has, but apart from first up where he just beat Cheltenham 9th Le Malin, he has had very little to beat. Clearly a leading candidate and he’s one of the best horses in the race, but not been a great few days for David Christie with Ferns Lock and Ultimate Optimist both defeated.
Write It Down – Got lucky when winning at Cartmel last year as the first past the post was disqualified for losing its saddle cloth and would need even Foinavon type luck to even get close to winning this.
Verdict – Ever since I saw Fier Jaguen win at Chaddesley Corbett I thought he could win one of the big races and I am very confident that he is going to be hard to beat in this. His stablemate of course won the Cheltenham version, but I think Fier Jaguen is better than him and he can provide his connections with the Cheltenham and Aintree double. His main danger has to be Famous Clermont and it makes sense to cover him as well because for me they are the best two horses in the race. If he is over his Cheltenham effort then this race looks ideal for him and he will be involved in the finish.
Of the others Winged Leader looks easily the best of the Irish, but I’m not sure he’s as good as the two mentioned above. Latenightpass has to be respected given his record in the race and it would be no surprise to see him in the first 4 again. Magic Saint and Bennys King chances are respected as well.
At bigger prices a couple make appeal to outrun their odds. I K Brunel should be capable of running a good race and might be one to run into a place. The sneaky one though at big odds could be Time Leader. His trainer has already won this race with a 66/1 shot and Time Leader is such a good jumper of fences that I think that can take him a long way. I’m not sure he will be quite good enough to win, but you can put a line through his Carlisle run and this will be much more suitable.
Fier Jaguen 4pts @ 6/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred
Famous Clermont 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 and most other bookies

Aldershot v Yeovil Aldershot aren't great as one win in 9 would suggest, but Yeovil are worse and with a new manager in place at Aldershot they really ought to be beating a Yeovil side who look to have given up. They showed little fight against Southend last week and then showed even less against Gateshead on Tuesday night as they loss 4-0, a result which was fully deserved. Mark Cooper basically had a pop at everyone in his interview after the game and even if he does leave before this game the new person doesn't have the players at his disposal to make much of a difference for me. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but it ought to be a home win.   Gloucester v Banbury We were very unlucky not to get paid out on the Under 2.5 goals and draw bet in the Southport v Banbury game on Tuesday. Having seen the Banbury 2nd goal I have no idea what the Southport defender was doing as the shot was going wide with no danger of a Banbury player getting to the ball before it goes out. Instead of leaving it he decides to pass it into the goal. Anyway, I don't think Banbury will give Gloucester too many issues on Friday. This is a must win for Gloucester if they are to get into the play-offs and they really ought to win this. Gloucester have still to lose at home this year. Banbury's win on Tuesday meant they got up to 50 points and that should be enough to see them safe so there isn't so much riding on it for them.   Kidderminster v Buxton Yet again we get to a Kidderminster game where the odds make little sense. Buxton are a huge price here to win this given the run of form they have been on which has seen them enter play-off contention. Kidderminster's home performance's have been embarrassing all season with them only getting 19 points at home and only relegated Telford have done worse. Scoring goals has been the big problem and they have only scored 16 at home. Blyth are the only side they have beaten at home in their last 10 home games and how on earth they can be odds on to beat a side on such a good run of form is just stupid, but then Kidderminster have been stupidly priced for most of the season.   Slough v Chippenham A few weeks back I was backing Chippenham without success as they kept drawing, but their win against Farnborough on Tuesday night made it 15 games unbeaten and they are now well clear of the relegation zone. Farnborough did have an xG of 3.57 in that game and they did crash the bar from about 5 yards before the same player headed it over from the same place about 5 seconds later which was a fair portion of that number. Slough aren't as good as Farnborough and often don't create a great deal. Chippenham are the better side for me and look a fair bet here.   Aldershot 2pts @ Evs with Betfred (take up to 4/5) Gloucester 3pts @ Evs with Betfred and William Hill (Skybet are 11/10) Buxton 3pts @ 13/5 with Betfred (William Hill are a huge stand out at 3/1 and take up to 7/4) Chippenham 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

San Remo won last week although there was a big R4 so that didn't help things. Hamilton is the venue on Sunday morning with two divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle and a handicap steeplechase.
Race 1
Cotton Eye Joe looked the winner at Terang, but Laybuy came pass him almost right on the line. He didn't jump the last two hurdles especially well and basically that was the difference between winning and losing. The winning time was 8.5 seconds quicker than the other division and I do think it was the stronger race. Summerhill has been running OK on the Flat, but I didn't like the shape he was making over his hurdles in his last hurdle trial. Thinking Man won a maiden on the flat 10 days ago at Mornington and ran in hurdles trial just on Thursday, but I wasn't overly impressed with what I saw. Toyetic is 2nd on the betting, but I didn't think there was a great deal of promise in his Warrnambool effort last week.
I thought the race was between Cotton Eye Joe and Lord Goldberg so with the latter out of the race I do think Cotton Eye Joe really ought to be hard to beat in what isn't that strong a race now.
Cotton Eye Joe 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone
Race 2
Duke Of Bedford was a 3/4L 2nd to Epizeel on his hurdles debut at Terang and whilst I don't think it was an especially strong race, neither is this, and  I don't think he was suited by the slow tempo and the sprint at the end as he was finishing his race off well. Flying Pierro ran in the steeplechase at Terang, but was a well beaten 3rd there. He was a close 2nd on his last hurdle start at Warrnambool last June, but he does seem to be building a frustrating profile. Praise The Power won his last hurdles trial a month ago, but I'm not sure the others were trying overly hard in it and his flat career is 1 win from 51 starts. He also finished last in a flat race last 9 days ago. Peace Process ran well enough when a close 5th behind Epizeel in the Terang race and can build on that. Rising Renown and Ourkhani are both short in the betting, but neither make huge appeal for me. 
I guess you always have to be slightly wary about hurdling newcomers, but none of those took the eye in the trials so I will stick with Duke Of Bedford who can go one better than at Terang.
Duke Of Bedford 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
Race 3
El Diez, Dr Dependable and Sky Hero all ran in the BM120 at Terang and they finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I suspect El Diez will come out on top of those 3 again as I think Sky Hero needs more experience as he was still novicey that day and Dr Dependable might need another run at least. Epizeel runs in his first handicap and maiden winners can tend to struggle on their first start out of maiden company and he did benefit from getting an easy lead and his jockey could dictate things from the front. However I do think he will continue to improve and this isn't a strong race. Hurry Cane is an interesting horse as he has come over from New Zealand and his owners want to aim him at the Grand Annual. He's been running in Group races on the flat and whilst being outclassed it he is clearly the best flat horse of these. He won a maiden hurdle on his 2nd hurdle start last July and whilst that was only over 2500m, he clearly stays better if they want to run him in a Grand Annual. He trialed over fences on Thursday and I think they will want him to go close here to help get his rating up a bit.
As much as I'm not a huge fan of backing a horse in handicap company after a maiden win, especially in a maiden that wasn't that strong, clearly Epizeel has a chance in a race like this. I am though going to go with Hurry Cane who is the best of these on the flat and is clearly highly thought of if the Grand Annual is the target.
Hurry Cane 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
Race 4
The two Pateman runners Mapping and Laylite have both got awful first up records so I am happy to take them on here although Laylite especially would be good enough to win this on his best chasing form of last season. Tamarack has some useful hurdle form and ran OK in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat last August. That is is only chase start and he has had 3 flat runes for fitness last month. He has a chance here and would be the pick of the Musgrove runners, Cheners and Coleridge being the other two, for me. So Belafonte ran a huge race at double figure odds for us at Terang and was only beaten a length at the end. He has jumps fitness on his side here although this race does have more depth to it for me. Blood And Sand was finishing behind Under The Bridge last season and I don't think he will reverse form here. That brings me to Under The Bridge whose jumping let him down to start with last season as he fell at Warrnambool when bang in contention in May and then made a mistake back their the following month which cost him badly. He finally got it all together on his next start and won well. Was a good 3rd at Pakenham in a decent race after that before disappointing on his final start at Coleraine. He has has 2 jump outs a flat run and a steeple trial on Thursday to get him fit for this and that should mean he has done enough to run a big race here.
So Belafonte ran well at Terang and does have the recent run over fences edge on the rest of the field, but Under The Bridge is a very good horse whose jumping improved as the season went on and I suspect he will be using this as a nice prep race going into one of the big Pakenham races in a couple of weeks time. With plenty of the other possible winners not having great 1st up form I think he will be quite hard to beat in this.
Under The Bridge 2pts @ 9/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

Altrincham v Southend I'm keen on the home side here who are usually much better at home than they are away, indeed they have beaten Woking 3-1 and Solihull 4-1 in their last two home games. They were a little unfortunate not to get something out of the game at Eastleigh last week and a gift of an own goal for Eastleigh's opener didn't help. Southend are on a shocking run of form at the moment having lost 5 on the bounce and their last win was against Torquay. I nearly opposed them last Saturday, but wasn't sure Aldershot would be good enough to beat them, but in the end they totally outplayed them and fully deserved the 2-1 win. I'm always slightly loathed to call a team a one man side, but losing Lopata at the back has been a huge reason for me as to why they have started losing games. I'd make Altrincham clear favs for this game so they look a nice bet.   Kettering v Darlington Happy to carry on with the backing Kettering at home theory especially as Darlington's form is not good at the moment. Darlington did deserve to beat Hereford last Saturday, but they then went and lost 3-1 to Farsley on Tuesday night and that Hereford win is their only victory in 8 games. There isn't a huge amount in it, but enough to make me back the home side.   Kidderminster v Alfreton Kidderminster have managed to draw 4 of their last 5 games, but as you know by now I am always happy to oppose them at home. Gloucester were poor last week, but Kidderminster still managed to only score 1 goal against us and conceded late on to blow the victory. 5 goals in their last 10 games tells the story. Alfreton have only lost to Fylde and Scarborough in their last 8 games are right in the play-off picture so look a big price to pick up 3 points here.   Chippenham v Eastbourne It has been 11 games since Chippenham last lost a game which started with a 0-0 draw against champions elect Ebbsfleet. They drew 6 games on the bounce and then have followed that up with 5 wins on the bounce. Eastbourne as we know aren't the most consistent side in the division and with Chippenham in the form they are I think they can win this.   Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough As I mentioned last week Hampton have really improved for a change of manager and whilst Farnborough are a good side they have only managed 3 wins in their last 10 games and their good form prior to that has left them a bit. I would make Hampton slight favs for this to continue their superb form.   Welling v Bath Bath let us down last weekend, but I will take them to win at Welling tomorrow afternoon. Welling started off the season well, but it has been pretty dire for a while now and they find themselves just 5 points about the relegation zone. Bath's away form has been better than their home form and they have basically had the opposite season to Welling's with them being just 2 points outside the play-offs. Welling have not won in 8 games now and I with Bath only losing 4 times on the road I fancy an away win.   Hitchin v Stratford (Southern Premier Central) Just the one bet in Step 3 this week and I like Stratford to beat Hitchin here. Bizarrely Stratford's last defeat came to bottom side Rushden, but since then they have been unbeaten in 7 games which included two 1-1 draws against title chasing Leiston. They look like they will be capable of staying outside of the relegation zone now they have got themselves out of it. They travel to a Hitchin side who haven't managed to win in 9 games and whilst they have drawn 5 times they did lose to Hednesford last Saturday.   Altrincham 2pts @ 17/10 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (small bit of money at 2 on Betfair take up to 5/4) Kettering 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 13/8) Alfreton 2pts @ 11/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 15/8) Chippenham 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred (take up to 6/4) Bath 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/5) Stratford 1pt @ 7/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4 and Skybet are 15/8)

As always this is a lengthy preview and clocks in at just over 4500 words. There is some great value on offer on my selections and all bookies are going 4 places as well which is great to see.   Billaway - A horse that even non hunter chase experts will know well given how long he has been around, and this will be his 4th run in the race having finished 2nd twice and then finally winning last year when just getting up in the nick of time to beat Winged Leader. He was clearly helped by the fact Winged Leader and Mighty Stowaway got racing from someway out because he got badly outpaced having made a bad mistake at the 18th. We know he is likely to hit a flat spot and chances are he will put in a bad error as well because he usually does. I thought he did well to win at Punchestown in front of Vaucelet as I have a feeling he might have won anyway despite the error at the last from the 2nd. This season on debut he was stuffed by Ferns Lock but given how good he looks and the fact he always comes on for his first run it was no real surprise. He then made hard work of beating Le Malin at Naas, but Patrick said that he was always going to win and if anything, he is just getting even lazier. He is probably still at the same sort of level that he has been in previous years which clearly makes him a player, but the concern has to be his laziness, and will things pan out as kindly for him as they did last year? I can understand why people think he is a solid e/w bet at the prices as he is clearly one of the best horses in the race, but I'm just not sure he will be able to double up. His jockey has got his way and he wares blinkers which I think will help him.   Black Op - Got up into the 150s over hurdles (2nd in the 2018 Ballymore and won the Mersey Novices' Hurdle) and fences when trained by Tom George but had lost his way. He has done well for the switch to pointing though when twice last season by 25L margins each time and then won on his only start this season at Sheriff Hutton back in January. The time was good as he was 0.5s quicker than Dubai Quest on the same card despite carrying a stone more. Obvious unknown is how he will get on back under rules and back in a big field given he has only beaten 10 horses in those 3 pointing victories. If he copes with that though I can see him running a decent race.   Bob And Co - With David Maxwell injured at the moment Jamie Codd has been booked to ride, but when the final decs came through on Wednesday morning Codd was jocked up on The Storyteller and Alice Stevens was on Bob And Co. Clearly Alice doesn't have Codds experience, but she is a good jockey and is more than capable. It is obviously a step up from having the owner on top although it is worth remembering that Sean Bowen rode him in the race 2 years ago and he still unseated him. He was travelling well at the time though and he surely would have played some sort of part in the finish. After that he went on to beat Billaway by a nose in the Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown. Last season he only ran twice when finishing a solid enough 2nd in the Walrus at Haydock to Cousin Pascal and then when falling at the 9th in this race. He had gone to France to be trained but came back in January and has gone to Harry Derham, but it will be a tough ask to win this first time out at the age of 12 and the fact he has come to grief on both his runs in the race before also has to be a concern. I've tipped him up the last two years so he certainly had the ability, but there is a huge unknown about how much of that ability he still retains. I can't help thinking his best chance of winning this has past.   Brain Power - Was mainly seen over 2m when trained by Nicky Henderson and was 2nd in the 2018 Arkle and took the International Hurdle in December of that year. The furthers distant he ran over was when he went over to America for the Grand National which he won over 2m5f. Done much better this season though winning 4 times including at Tyrella last time in January. He beat Samurai Cracker in that contest, and he hasn't exactly done much for the form as he has been beaten twice since and he was 21L behind Vaucelet at Down Royal. The trip is obviously a concern and his form suggests he wont be good enough to win this.   Cat Tiger - Maxwell doesn't usually run two in a race, but it seems Cat Tiger is also set to take his chance as Paul Nicholls said in the Racing Post that Charlie Sprake has been booked for the ride. He also said he thought he was his best e/w chance of the week. He has been placed in the last two running's of the Aintree Foxhunters' having been 3rd in 2021 and 2nd last year. He's only been seen once this season when a well beaten 5th at Ascot back in November. He's never really struck me as a possible Cheltenham winner, and he was a well beaten 12th in the Kim Muir over course and distance a year ago. I'd imagine Aintree will be the bigger target for him. He struggled a bit when first going pointing last season and he didn't win until his 4th start.   Chris's Dream - A former Troytown winner back in 2019 and finished 10th in that seasons Cheltenham Gold Cup. His last good run under rules though was when he was beaten a neck by The Storyteller in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal in October the following season. He only ran a further 5 times under rules after that which include pulling up in the Ryanair and unseating in the Grand National. He has found his form again pointing though winning both races so far in November and January. Both look decent enough runs, but he still seems on the short side in the betting on the back of them and horses with his sort of profile don't seem to win this race anymore.   Dandy Dan - Ran well in defeat to start with in points last season, before winning a couple of small field Opens very easily. He then went to Cheltenham for the big race on hunter chase night and impressed me by beating the very good Caryto Des Brosses by 6.5L. He then went to Stratford, and I thought his jockey's inexperienced went against him in that contest when she got caught out, but he still finished a very solid 3rd just 10.5L behind Vaucelet. He's had 1 run this season when he was 3rd behind Law Of Gold at Garthorpe recently but looked in need of the run that day so I expect him to improve on that effort. Given we know he handles course and distance that is a big thing in his favour and very interestingly James King has been booked for the ride. I don't blame connections at all for going with him over his regular jockey. He wouldn't want the ground to be too soft though, but otherwise he does have place claims.   Dorking Cock - He landed the Down Royal Boxing Day Hunters Chase last season, but then only had two more starts and was beaten 59L by Billaway at Punchestown. He looked like winning the Down Royal contest for the second year running until Vaucelet came and nabbed him on the line. That is his only start so far this season and on those Down Royal runs he clearly has some sort of chance, but ultimately I would be surprised if he was good enough to win.   Famous Clermont - When this horse started out on his racing career in 2019 over in Ireland, he looked pretty ordinary as he showed little promise in 4 starts in points. He then moved over here and was unlucky not to win first time out as he stumbled at the last and unseated when in command. On his next start he hung left on the run in and through the race away. That wasn't the only time he showed his quirky tendencies and when he ran in a bumper at Wincanton in February 2021 he hung badly left round the home turn and ran out when still going well enough in 3rd place. After 3 bumper runs, he went back to Chris Barber and the team have done a hell of a job with him to get him to where he is today. Last season he was 2nd on his first start, but then won his next 3 which concluded with a very easy success at Exeter in his first hunter chase for which he recorded a RPR of 130. He then went off a 6/5 favourite for the Intermediate Final on Hunter Chase night here and quite frankly he looked to hate every second of it. He made mistakes and weakened pretty quickly from 2 out. Connections did wonder if he had stayed, but in all honestly, he never looked like winning and probably did well to get as deep into the race as he did. He did have another run after that when winning a point in easy style. This season he returned with a hugely impressive performance at Larkhill on New Years Day when winning with any amount in hand. Next up he went to Wincanton where he made some interesting attempts of getting over his fences at times, but then at other times he was electric. Anyway, he still won in a canter and was value for way more than the winning margin of 4L over Shantou Flyer. A couple of weeks later he went up to Haydock for the Walrus which is the biggest hunter chase pre-Cheltenham and his jumping was much better, and he couldn't have been any more impressive. The handicapper has him on a mark of 142 and Billaway was given a mark of 140 when winning this last year. It's quite incredible that no one appears to be talking about him because clearly on pure ability he is one of the best horses in the race, and in my view, he is the best horse in the race. I'd be very confident about his chances, but you have to have his run here in April at the back of your mind. He is certainly a better horse now, but it was a horrid effort and if it is Cheltenham that is the issue then he clearly won't be winning this. Hopefully though that isn't the case and Will can get him into a nice rhythm. Chances are he will make at least one poor jump, but at the same time he can put in some great leaps, and he made good progress from Wincanton to Haydock on that front. I'd have him as joint favourite with Vaucelet so it is clear where the value is.   Go Go Geronimo - Ran a hell of a race to only be beaten a neck by Latenightfumble in the Intermediate Final at the hunter chase night here in April. He helped to set a fairly strong gallop that night, so he clearly stays well and handles the track. He went onto finish 2nd in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford which was another good effort. This season he has run and won two points at Alnwick, but the fact he was 2/5 and 4/9 are accurate to how much better he was than his rivals. This is by far his toughest test yet and I see him running a nice race, but not being good enough to hit the frame. His trainer Kelly Morgan does have previous in this race though having trained Top Wood to finish 2nd and 3rd.   I K Brunel - Was a decent horse for Olly Murphy and has won both starts for his new yard. Initially I don't think the form of his Larkhill win was that strong but given what he did at Taunton my suspicion is he was a good horse in a weakish contest in comparison to this race. I was impressed with his win at Taunton where Izzie Marshall gave him a very good ride. His jumping was very impressive and whilst Not That Fuisse didn't get the run of the race in 2nd, he still might have won. I can see him running a nice race.   Its On The Line - Won a maiden hunter chase at Cork and a novice hunter chase at Tipperary last season where his jumping wasn't always the best. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet and he was very disappointing running no sort of race. This season he was just beaten by The Storyteller in October, then was beaten 12L by Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse although he was carrying 5lbs more so in hindsight he had no chance that day. He was run in 3 points since finishing 3rd behind The Storyteller again and then winning twice beating Lord Schnitzel both times. His trainer sounds quite bullish about his chances, but I struggle to see it myself as no piece of form would make him good enough to win this and he looks under priced to me.   Le Malin - Only had 10 races having started life in France. Unless the Racing Post database is wrong, he didn't run from June 2019 until last October where he finished a 1L 3rd behind Vaucelet at Portrush. I suspect he was flattered a bit by his proximity that day though. He has also been 2nd to Winged Leader in a point in January and then was 2nd to Billaway at Naas before winning back in a point by 11L. Given Billaway should improve plenty for that Naas run and he always looked like he would get back up to win I can't have him reversing that form or the form with Vaucelet. However, given he has finished close to them you have to think he might be capable of running a decent enough race.   Might Stowaway - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd in this last year and probably set the race up for Billaway given he and Winged Leader were in a battle from a fair way out. He was then sold and is now trained by Alan Hill, but he has been very disappointing in both starts. First of all, he pulled up on hunter chase night behind Dandy Dan and then on his one start this season he was well beaten in a point at Horseheath. I know some will be backing him based on last year's 3rd, but he doesn't look the same horse now and I would be surprised if we saw a repeat here.   Moratorium - A solid enough horse for Myles Osbourne and he should be able to give him a nice spin round, but he was beaten in a weakish hunter chase here on hunter chase night and was 2nd at Wetherby behind Not That Fuisse this season. He did win at Alnwick last time, but deserves to be a big price for this.   Myth Buster - Was pulled up behind I K Brunel on his seasonal return, but made Premier Magic pull out all the stops on his next start at Chaddesley Corbett. He then fell at Cocklebarrow before winning as he liked over 4m at Kingston Blount. Was outclassed at Aintree last year and likely to be a similar story here.   Not That Fuisse - Won the hunter chase at Fakenham on the same day as this race last year and followed up with two more hunter chase wins at Warwick and Fakenham before finishing 4th 26L behind Vaucelet at Stratford. Young Heidi Palin took over the ride this season and she gave him a good ride to beat Moratorium at Wetherby, but she got caught out at Taunton when a staying on 2nd to I K Brunel. He used to want a shorter trip, but I think 3m is what he needs now although I'm not sure 3m2f round Cheltenham is what he wants. Jack Andrews is meant to be taking over in the saddle.   Premier Magic - A surprising entry as his trainer has said he wouldn't go for this race again after hating things in the contest a year ago. To be fair he still looks in peak form based on his wins this season as he was given a lot of weight away to Myth Buster when winning at Chaddesley Corbett and then easily beat Law Of Gold at Garthorpe last month by 14L. He does have the ability to run well, but given how much he hated it last year he's hard to actually want to back him.   Rocky's Howya - He had shown very little under rules over hurdles and 3 starts over fences and was only rated 106 when he last ran in a handicap in October 2021. He then had a year off and started back in a maiden point which he won by 18L. He then won a Winner Of 3 bizarrely before winning a Winner Of 2. On his first run in Open company, he beat Le Feline by 24L at Aghabullogue in January and she had won her 3 starts prior to that race and won on her following start. If that wasn't impressive enough his next start was even better. He needed to qualify for Cheltenham, and he went to Tallow last month and hammered Chatham Street Lad by 45L in a quick time. Chatham Street Lad was being talked about as a possible runner in this race when he won an Open on his previous start and he was rated as high as 156 in his prime. The 3rd horse was Woodbrook Boy, and he won on his next start. His form just looks so red hot. Obviously we don't know if he can replicate the huge improvement he has shown in points back under rules and there would be a small concern over the trip, but if he can run to his pointing form then he is a huge player for me in this.   Secret Investor - Another former top-class chaser who landed the 2021 Denman Chase at Newbury beaten Clan Des Obeaux. He clearly isn't at that level now and whilst he has won two hunter chases at Bangor and Kelso with ease the bare form is not strong. Dieu Vivant is a horse who is always easy to beat, and Sir Jack Yeats is nowhere near the horse he used to be. No doubt he will give Natalie a good spin round, but I would be a bit disappointed if he turned out to be good enough to win. The other key thing is Paul Nicholls doesn't even seem that bullish about his chances and seemingly prefers the claims of Cat Tiger.   Shantou Flyer - Did well to beat Aintree winner Latenightpass at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, but he was out in his place by Famous Clermont at Wincanton on his next start. Earlier this month he ran at Charlton Horethorne, but he stumbled on the bend and unseated Olive. He does have a superb record at Cheltenham including finishing 2nd to Hazel Hill in this in 2019 and is sure to give Olive a great spin round, but it is hard to see him finishing in the 1st 4.   The Storyteller - A Grade 1 winning chaser in the past and got into the 160s ratings wise. No doubt people will trot out the old line of he could carry these at his best so must have a serious chance. Well as I have mentioned elsewhere, horses with his profile just don't win this race anymore. Whilst I am sure a horse with his type of profile will pop up and win the race again at some point, who knows it could be this year, the percentage call is always to try and take them on. At the end of the day, they tend to be running in points and hunter chases for a reason and if he could still run to such a high level, he wouldn't be running in a hunter chase. He beat Its On The Line by a short head on his first point start in October and then won a couple more without ever looking anywhere near his best. He then was sent off favourite at Down Royal on Boxing Day and never ever looked like he was going to get involved in the business end of the race and finished 7th. He ran in a point at Punchestown last month and was also beaten there into 2nd place. Even at current odds he looks under priced to me although it was a big surprise to see Jamie Codd booked for the ride on Wednesday given he was set to ride Bob And Co who would appear to have a better chance. Maybe he was claimed for the ride, but maybe it suggests there is some confidence behind his chance. He still wouldn't be for me, but Codd riding is interesting.   Vaucelet - He has got some record since going to David Christie's yard as he has only been beaten 3 times and one of those was on his debut for the stable.  The other twice was when he was 3rd at Down Royal last season and then when losing to Billaway at Punchestown. He followed that Punchestown effort by winning at Stratford which followed on from his John Corbet Cup win the previous year. He had to work quite hard to beat Law Of Gold, but that horse has a superb record at Stratford, so it is a strong piece of form. This season he returned in an Open at Portrush in October and made all to just beat Coastal Tiep. He then managed to go two places better at Down Royal than he did the previous year by staying on strongly to just get up late on to beat Dorking Cock. That was a bonus win because he isn't at his best on soft ground although I think the fact the race distance this year was 3m rather than 2m5f clearly helped as well. I saw a quote saying that the horse is best fresh, so they have not run him since then, but that isn't really backed up by the facts. Prior to his Punchestown 2nd he won at Fairyhouse over Easter and there was 13 days between those two efforts, and he had won a point at the end of March prior to those 2 runs. He's not run at Cheltenham before, but no reason why he won't handle the track and stays well. He can through in the odd mistake as he showed at Punchestown last year. Clearly, he is one of the best horses in the race and I know plenty of people can't see past him, so it is easy to see why he is such a short-priced favourite, but there is just no value in his price for me. I'd have preferred him to have had a more recent run, so whilst he is one of the likely winners, I think there are better bets in the race who just might be capable of beating him.   Wotzizname - Won a match at Newton Abbot in May and then was only beaten a neck back there a couple of weeks later. Neither of those runs good enough for this though and he has been well beaten in both starts this season.   Verdict - Usually at this stage the betting has a pretty solid look, and you know there will be little movement until the day of the race, but this year is different because Ferns Lock and Winged Leader will come out on Wednesday morning unless we get a massive surprise or Vaucelet gets an injury. Given they are currently 2nd and 3rd in the betting we are surely going to get some movement. First of all, I will say that David Christie is pretty ill in hospital at the moment so if Vaucelet does win then it would be great for him especially given how close he went last year. Vaucelet is no doubt going to be a very popular selection and clearly he has the ability to win this, but I don't think he is the best horse in the race ability wise and therefore he is too short in the market for me. I think Famous Clermont is a better horse than him and if he hadn't of run so badly over course and distance in April confidence would be very high. He is a better horse now though and he has already run to a rating which would see him win most renewals of this. Hopefully that run was just a blip, and he can show his true ability here. I have already put him up as a bet, but he is still value because he will surely be even shorter on Wednesday when the final decs come through.   Last year's winner Billaway needs to improve on what he has done so far this season, but he usually does and I can see why he will be popular, especially if he stays an e/w price and 4 places will be on offer after the final decs come through. Bob And Co certainly did have the ability to win this race in the past, but you are guessing if he still does. As I point out in the preview clearly the fact Codd is riding over his owner is a plus, but then it isn't the first time he has been without him in the race, so I don't think it is as big a thing as some will make out. If he was a double figure price I probably would have a small bet on him, but the fact he's been off for a year has to be a negative. One year I suspect one of the former top class horses will pop up and win, but the percentage call has to be to take on Chris's Dream, Secret Investor and The Storyteller, especially as none of them have the best form so far tis season coming into the race.   I know you have to take on trust that Rocky's Howya will show his improved form back under rules, but his pointing form is red hot and if he can run to that level it would not surprise me at all if he was good enough to win this. If he had run in a hunter chase this season and run to the level he had in points then he'd be at least half the price he currently is. Of the really big prices I think Dandy Dan has a chance if the ground isn't too soft. We know he handles course and distance and he wasn't seen to best advantage when just over 10L behind Vaucelet at Stratford. That effort clearly doesn't leave him with much to find and he will come on plenty for his seasonal return at Garthorpe. The fact James King takes over in the saddle is a huge plus for his chance as well and he has solid e/w claims.   Famous Clermont 1.5pts e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill (4 places and take up to 5/1 e/w and have 2pts win if between 9/2 and 7/2)  Rocky's Howya 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill and Betfred (4 places and take up to 7/1) Dandy Dan 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (4 places and take up to 16/1)

Thank you all for following the thread this year and hopefully it has been of help. This race rarely gets talked about in all the various podcasts and blogs on Cheltenham so my aim is to fill that gap. 
This year if you have enjoyed the preview and found it helpful then I am looking to raise some money to a charity close to my family's heart. As some will be aware my youngest son was born with what is still an undiagnosed illness and has various disabilities. Every Thursday he goes to a charity called Small Steps who work with children aged birth to 5 years who have cerebral palsy or other forms of motor impairment, syndromes or sensory impairment to help with their development and my son has benefitted a lot from the services that they provide. They need to raise £400,000 each year to survive. Obviously there is no pressure at all to donate, but if you can spare a bit of cash then it would be great if I help them raise some money towards their total.
The link to donate is https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate

I said yesterday's would be the last update, but then we got an update on Famous Clermont in the paper today.   Having read the pointing update in today's Racing Post it seems as if connections of Famous Clermont are now seriously considering Cheltenham again. Trainer is preferring Aintree, owners are now thinking Cheltenham as they might not get another chance and jockey is also coming round to the idea of Cheltenham. They are going to have a meeting on Monday to discuss it, but it seems at the very least he will get an entry. Whilst I still have my doubts about how he will cope with Cheltenham after last year, he is also the best horse in the race, in my opinion, so I think it is worth backing him now at 7/1 NRNB. Unless they get a change of mind with Ferns Lock he isn't going to go and I'm not sure Winged Leader will either so his price is only likely to get shorter. There are also a few that are around the 10/14-1 mark which aren't going to be running either. On pure ability I think he's a better horse than Vaucelet and if he can jump well enough and he copes mentally with the day then I think he will win.   Famous Clermont 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365 NRNB (take up to 5/1)   Also Bob And Co is now at Harry Derham's after he Tweeted a clip of him schooling this morning and he also confirmed he is going for this race.