Non-League Predictions - 26th September

[Darran]

Aldershot v Southend

Clearly I should have tried carrying on trying to oppose Southend as they lost 2-1 to Fylde on Saturday and everything I have read on the game suggests that the players were very tired after playing on Tuesday. I'm surprised a little because they didn't have to work that hard to beat Maidenhead, but clearly that is worrying for them given they have to play again tomorrow. Not surprisingly their away form hasn't been as good as their home form and I certainly think it has been a case of them wanting to put on a performance for their fans who are going through so much at the moment. Aldershot had a good win over Boreham Wood on Saturday and their only defeat at home this season was against Chesterfield. I'm really surprised to see Southend as favs for this game and am very keen on Aldershot.

 

Ebbsfleet v Dorking

It was a dire afternoon on Saturday for the home side as Altrincham put 6 past them and that means they have won just once in 6 games. Granted they have been better at home and have conceded just 4 times in 5 games and scored 10 so that is one thing to consider, but I just can't have them as short as they are for this game and so Dorking look a value play. They lost their first 3 away games, but they had to travel to Chesterfield, Solihull and Woking so it was a tough start and they nearly got something at Chesterfield. They then drew at Oldham (where they did off course score but it wasn't given) and then beat Halifax in their last away game. They should have won on Saturday, but allowed Rochdale to score 2 late goals to beat them 2-1. I just don't think there is as much between these two sides as the bookies think so am happy to take a chance on the away side.

 

Kidderminster v Oldham

No surprise to me that the sacking of Unsworth has suddenly seen a huge upturn in performances and results for Oldham and they really ought to prove too strong for Kidderminster. Now I accept that Kiddie are putting in strong performances at home as they have had high xGs for and low xGs against, but Oldham, as they proved on Saturday when winning 4-0, carry a huge goal threat and in my view the biggest goal threat they have faced at home so far this season. Those xG's have only led to 1 goal and whilst surely they have to score at some point, it has been a huge problem. They did take the lead against Eastleigh on Saturday, but it was via a penalty. Oldham should be much shorter for this than they are.

 

Maidenhead v Altrincham

I was surprised that Maidenhead kept Gateshead quiet for as long as they did on Saturday, but in the end it was a comfortable win for the home side. They created very little yet again and also lost their 2 central defenders to injury. That isn't going to help playing a side here who scored 6 on Saturday. Alty have struggled with injuries themselves, but added a couple of players last week which clearly helped them. They have only lost 2 games all season and whilst they have drawn plenty (6 of 11 games) I do think they can beat Maidenhead. To be fair they have been better at home having drawn 3 and only conceding 3 times, but they have also only scored 3 times and I think they might struggle to keep Alty out here.

 

Rochdale v Chesterfield

For once Chesterfield didn't have to rely on a late winner on Saturday as they beat Wealdstone 3-2 having come from a goal down. Also unusually none of their goals came from a set-piece or a penalty. I counted up a couple of weeks ago and at the time just over half their goals had come from a set-piece or a penalty. They have only lost once and that was away at Altrincham and I have seen enough in Rochdale to think they can pick up 3 points here. Confidence will be high as well given the way they won on Saturday especially given they put 4 past Barnet in their last home game.

 

Prices taken from Monday around 9am

 

Aldershot 2.5pts @ 2/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Coral (take up to 5/4)

Dorking 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 11/4)

Oldham 2.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4)

Altrincham 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 5/4)

Rochdale 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 15/8)

[andypandy23]

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