yossa6133

Those two were my standout selections for the day. Have a magic day everyone.

Bath 2:30
tom Marquand and will haggas at bath hard to oppose but a crazy price.
Bouje Gold
is value simply to place in the first three. 
That is evens or better he could even nick second 
The profile of  two of them other runners is not great despite the breeding.
He is a big price but rather than try each way I’m trying to steal few quid in case he only makes third.
Could do much much better but I’m happy at evens here.

On the nod! Good start 🤑

Catterick 2:10
Petra celera
Win
obligatory
each way
 
penta celera
Impressive displays both runs in Scotland.
Worried out of it by mismerald.
Shaped as though the damp ground would be useful.
Another one of interest is the well bred obligatory
Each way
Related to a very classy horse of Tim Easterby’s.
Although the yard are only 2/93 with juveniles as they focus on plundering handicaps, it only takes one to change the statistics……………
 

Daria Saville to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 2.00 with Bet365
Back again with Saville, as I feel that Korpatsch is tremendously overrated at the moment, she's very average in all respects, and struggled heavily in R1. Saville has shown a lot of fight and the comeback trail could very well continue here.

Hi all, been reading on the forum for years and thought I would bite the bullet and start to post some plays.
L Musetti -4.5 Games v E Ymer 1.73, Pinnacle (NAP)
Musetti is the defending champion here this week in Hamburg and should be far too good for Elias Ymer. The 186 ranked player has been struggling to string any sort of consistent results together for quite some time now. Despite losing last week to Ruud in the Semi Final in Bastad, Musetti was playing some really good tennis. With points to defend this week he will be highly motivated to get off to a strong start and should win with relative ease.
 
A Rus -3.5 Games v M Timofeeva 1.75, Pinnacle (NB)
Despite losing in qualifying last week Timofeeva turned it around and won Budapest. She played some great tennis but some really long matches (five 3 set matches) which could really have an impact here. It’s a very quick turnaround and she is playing against a player in Rus who has lost just once on clay since May. During that period Rus has won 3 tournaments in a row including a 15 match winning run before she lost in a tight 3 set battle to eventual runner up Paolini in Palermo. Rus will be the fresher player here and the lefty will play her usual aggressive tennis. I am expecting a post title hangover here for Timofeeva and a win for Rus. I was tempted by the 4.5 game handicap at bigger odds but have opted for the slightly lower line.
 
B Nakashima to win 2-0 v M Purcell 1.83, Bet365
I sided against Purcell last week when he lost to Brouwer and I will do the same again here. He has been poor since May and was easily beaten last week on grass. There are also rumours he has been playing with a fractured foot for a while which is one of the main reasons I went against him in Newport. He now transitions to a fast hard court in very humid conditions against Nakashima who he has already lost to 6-3 6-3 last year. During that match Purcell was regularly under pressure on serve and I see the same happening here as well. I was tempted by the –3.5 games but have opted for the straight sets win just in case one of the sets, possibly the first, is a little tighter than expected. Both should hit though.
 
S Wawrinka –3.5 Games v F Misolic 1.95, Pinnacle
I picked Wawrinka last week in Gstaad in his poor loss to Munar but willing to give him another chance here. On a slow clay court in Umag he should have far too much power for Misolic. As long as Wawrinka keeps the errors down this should be a comfortable win for the Swiss.

Two tracker Horses.
Catterick 
3.20. Coaxing      7/1    unpl
5.05. Querus         2/1    1st 
singles & double 
stk 6.00   rtn 70.00
Good luck all. 

I would say Munar vs Albert Ramos @ 1.50 is banker today. Only 2 days after final in Gstaad it would be too much for 35 years old Ramos. I wouldn't be surprised if he withdraws. It worries me only H2H which is 5:0 for Ramos

 
 

Ankita Raina (+5.5) to beat Anna Jodie Burrage at 1.73 with Bet365
Burrage lost an awful match against Bai last time out, while Raina has finally stringed some wins together, and shouldn't be this easy to beat honestly. 5.5 lines are by no means simple to cover, it has to be a one-sided match, and I'm not sure why this should be that.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+5.5) to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.80 with Unibet
Of course Muchova is the favourite here, but this is another 5.5 line that might be very tricky to cover. Sasnovich is a classy player with all the experience in the world, and the fact that both could be somewhat rusty favours this bet as well imo.
Linda Fruhvirtova to beat Lucrezia Stefanini at 1.50 with Unibet
My final bet is actually on a favourite, with the talented L. Fruhvirtova taking on Stefanini, who's looking to finally break the top 100 mark. This is a tough spot, though, and I think Linda will have more than enough in the tank here.

Humanitarian                                     -          6 08 Bal/            1/40th of a pt ew     25/1

Why not ? a Hollie Doyle four- timer.....Apparently not ! , nice ride in last.
Wolverhampton. 
6.00. Arizona Desert          13/2    unpl
7.30. Wild Hoofer                  10/3    unp.
8.00. Fifty year Storm             9/2      unpl
8.30. Speed dial Baileys         4/1     1st 
stk 7.50      rtn 883.50
Good luck all. 

Not been this excited about a book since Business Secrets of the Pharoahs was (sort of) published.
 

Thanks yossa
ayr
3.05
dorothy Lawrence 
drops a long way in class here and is priced accordingly.
three very decent races at listed and stakes level and placed in all of them not far behind Persian dreamer.
should dominate here.
Dorothy Lawrence to win by 4+ lengths 
Pilgrim
each  way ( on breeding but will most likely need the run)
All small stakes but as zilzalian says its a soft ground thing.

Nick Mordin had a system for 2yo in soft ground and it went something like this- when the ground is soft or heavy back the horse with most runs where the rest of the field has had few or no runs.  Last night i identified the 620 at windsor as one such race to be interested in (ish) although there are a few in the field with more runs than i would like the fact that Mullins Beach has shown form on soft ground and is getting so much weight from the others it is well worth a bet was 25/1 now around 12/1 the problem today is that last night the going was good to soft but today it is described as good puts me off a tad because that tells me it is drying so i am hoping for a bit of a deluge because my money is already down, as i have 25/1 and it is now around 12/1 i could cash out for more than i staked (bit of profit) but to micro manage bets to me is alien so i will let it run.

Spot on again. All the way out to 9/4, they seemed very confident the runner up was going to win (4's into 11/8)!

Ayr 2:30
Golden shot 
win
travels to Scotland minus Luke Morris as this is an apprentice race.
Yard’s only runner here and this horse drops back in trip and runs down in class from debut run at Leicester where ability was shown in the early stages. ( won by now 85 rated perlando)
has gone through the usual metamorphosis since the mandatory three sprint runs out the back to classy middle distance runner with an unscalable mark and won twice very easily .
Did not appreciate step up in trip latest and given a long break. If sent to the front early enough could run away with things here. A drifter today and could go off a nice price.
 
 
the saver is a reverse forecast with two auld lads.
golden shot to win by
2+ lengths @ 100/30
Golden shot to win
golden shot/ two auld pals
reverse forecast 
entered up multiple times this week and a win here means no penalties in those entered affairs . Has already bolted up eased down under a penalty. 
if Prescott has relatives up here or wants to post a letter cheaply ,then he has another reason to come, but sends one horse on a 750 mile round trip.

I usually lose interest after the first week but will put a team in 😆
Team name: The Roosters
Manager name: Sean Fahy

Pretty Boy Floyd                        -      4 15 Ayr/                  1/40th  of a  pt  ew        20/1   

Beverly. 
Single. 
8.00. Angel De Luz      7/1
stk 5.00    rtn 40.00
Double. 
5.55. Airman        13/8
8.30. Solar Joe         7/1
stk 6.00    rtn 61.00
Good luck all. 

Ballinrobe 5:10
Magnetic North
win
dropped into a claimer again for new connections, this consistent handicapper has found he is shooting fish in a barrel at this level. Has won his last two by a total of nine lengths.
Carries the same conditions as before 10-2 must be the ceiling , Adam caffery takes another five off. They stop losing at some stage but there looks to be more just yet.

In theory I should have placed 48 points today (4 x 12).  You are right I am scared about upping the ante with my bets.  ATM I am betting with RW profits which were around 40 points at the start of the day.  @richard-westwood has changed tack today by arranging his bets so as to make the same profit whichever horse wins.  He has not done this before.  He usually has straight amounts on each horse.  There is nothing wrong with what he is doing but I hate putting extra money on short-priced favourites; this is usually a bad idea and when I have tried this in the past I have built up losses.  Hence I just had a cover bet on the horse and hoped his other selection would win. He was unlucky with Spirit Catcher as the horse got carried out by a riderless horse.  I make it that he lost -30.29 points today.  I lost -7.07 points (should have been -8.07 but I forgot to back Meisher to place).  I suppose I'm a bit like the cowardly lion in The Wizard of Oz who sought courage.  I didn't want to squander my 40 points profit in one day so please forgive me

I'm not into racing podcasts but I would definitely listen to one co-hosted by Zilzalian and The Equaliser. Could be racing's Siskel and Ebert.

450 ayr 
Darbucks   8.0 5/2 
Jkr cobbler   7.7 
These 2 reoppose with darbucks much better off weights and with perfect conditions he should make a bold bid ....price isn't great so I'll try 4pt win darbucks

No flat racing so a day off for me
Only bet will be Lance Stroll podium finish in the snore fest formula 1, superboost 8/13 to 1/1

Nothing much to do today
2.35 NAbb Secret Sauce 1 pt win at 7.20 (A hurdles newcomer that has won on the flat and is in good hands for its jumps debut) My PL Nap on a poor day's racing