NH selection.
Cheltenham 2.25
GELINO BELLO 9/4
This system is based on 5 year olds in November and December. Other main criteria are that the horse must have last run less than 94 days ago and the horse is not top weight.
Having said that, I have checked the results over the last 8 years and it has returned an AE of 1.03 from 3,448 selections.
On soft / heavy AE is 1.08
Class 1 to 4 AE is 1.05
19 - 22 furlongs AE is 1.12
Forecast odds rank 4 to 10 AE is 1.17
Age 7-8 AE is 1.09
Last run less than 10 days ago AE is 1.10
7lb claimers AE is 1.17
1st last time AE is 1.08
CD winner AE is 1.08
December to February AE is 1.08
Non novice AE is 1.06
Tuesday to Friday AE is 1.14.
I may well add this to my list of systems.
Having said that, I have checked the results over the last 8 years and it has returned an AE of 1.03 from 3,448 selections.
On soft / heavy AE is 1.08
Class 1 to 4 AE is 1.05
19 - 22 furlongs AE is 1.12
Forecast odds rank 4 to 10 AE is 1.17
Age 7-8 AE is 1.09
Last run less than 10 days ago AE is 1.10
7lb claimers AE is 1.17
1st last time AE is 1.08
CD winner AE is 1.08
December to February AE is 1.08
Non novice AE is 1.06
Tuesday to Friday AE is 1.14.
I may well add this to my list of systems.
NH selection.
Cheltenham 2.25
GELINO BELLO 9/4
This system is based on 5 year olds in November and December. Other main criteria are that the horse must have last run less than 94 days ago and the horse is not top weight.
NH selection.
Cheltenham 2.25
GELINO BELLO 9/4
This system is based on 5 year olds in November and December. Other main criteria are that the horse must have last run less than 94 days ago and the horse is not top weight.
RESULTS UPDATE
Disappointing Trixie and I guess that Sporting John let a lot of punters down today. My 8/1 winner at least secured me 4 points profit on the day. my cum profit for Dec = 57.81pts with a ytd figure of -175.36 pts.
Lots more class action tomorrow; let's hope that some of the beasts run true to form
Hope Saturday's racing is more ' truer ' than Fridays which saw lots of fences dolled off because of a low sun leaving half hurldle / chase races & half bumper races leading to an untrue race outcome , they didn't seem to have an issue back in the day or even in the present day if you're racing in France with a low sun .
LATE TODAY CHANGED BROADBAND PROVIDER UP AND RUNNING BUT COULDN'T ACCESS SITE FINALY FOUND OUT SITE BLOCK BY BROADBAND BUDDY??
Southwell 18:45 -Not Now Zeb 7/1 BET365
IF N/R
Southwell 18:15 -Sycamore 25/1 BET365
Seven races form the basis of the ITV coverage on Saturday afternoon with the ground maybe not as soft as expected at both Cheltenham and Doncaster. The official going at the former is good (good to soft in places) and good to soft (good in places) at Doncaster. Here’s my thoughts :-
Cheltenham 1.50
The days feature race is the 15 runner newly sponsored Racing Post Gold Cup run over 2m 4F 127yds. Plenty are in with chances with the key piece of form being the Paddy Power Gold Cup run over course and distance four weeks ago. Midnight Shadow came out on top that day from Protektorat (good winner since) with Lalor in 3rd, Dostal Phil in 4th, Zanza in 6th, Deyrann De Carjac 11th and Coole Cody bang in contention when falling two from home. You could feasibly make a case for all of those in one form or other especially with the race been run on the new stiffer track but it’s a seasonal debutant that catches my eye although I must admit I’m a bit perplexed by the jockey booking! Farinet hasn’t been seen since winning a decent 20F novices handicap chase at Sandown on only his second British start for his trainer Venetia Williams last March and creeps in to the handicap here off of a mark of 133 on 10 stone 2lb. He may have plenty of improvement to come and can run a big race from the foot of the weights with the recent rain a bonus. The only niggling thing is the fact that stable jockey Charlie Deutsch (who can do a low weight) is on top weight Cepage for Williams and not on my selection although Rachael Blackmore is an excellent substitute. He’s the one I want to be with each way especially with the firms paying the extra places.
FARINET 1 1/2 points each way @ 17/2 1/5th 12345 William Hill
Doncaster 2.05
A competitive 9 runner handicap hurdle run over 2m 128yds. It’s actually hard to dismiss any of the runners with the outsider only being a 14/1 chance. Paul Nicholls saddles Sonigino who is the most interesting runner in the race as he is having his handicap debut here and will be ridden by Bryony Frost who’s been in the news all week. Top weight Tommy’s Oscar will be ridden by champion jockey elect Brian Hughes and was highly impressive when winning at Haydock last month by 10L and despite the rise of 9lb may be good enough to give weight all round today. To small stakes he’s the selection.
TOMMYS OSCAR 1 point each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234 William Hill
Cheltenham 2.25
A small but select field of six go to post for this 3 mile grade 2 novice hurdle. The key piece of form came at the last meeting when Charlie Byrne’s Blazing Khal beat Paul Nicholl’s Gelino Bello by 2 1/2L with Current Mood 5L further back in third place. That race was run over 3F shorter than todays and Gelino Bello & Current Mood will be 5lb better off here which should in theory pull them closer together. Irish trainer Byrnes stated in the week that his Blazing Khal was the best he had ever trained and I’ll take him to confirm the form over the extra distance as he did seem to be the strongest on the finisher after the last to my eyes. Olly Murphy’s Barony Legends is an interesting runner as he absolutely sluiced up at Lingfield in October in bad ground against modest opposition but should relish this trip as a former Irish point runner up ( he was beaten 4L by Donny Boy that day and that one has come out and won two novice hurdles for Nick Alexander this season) but I’m sticking with the penalised Blazing Khal to confirm the recent form with Gelino Bello.
BLAZING KHAL 2 points win @ 11/10 Bet365
Doncaster 2.40
The grade 2 listed bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle is run over the minimum trip of 2 mikes and has attracted 8 runners this year. Likely favourite is the Gary Moore trained Porticello who impressed when winning the Wensleydale at Wetherby on his British debut when well backed and is the one they all have to beat although he has been priced accordingly at around the 2/1 mark. Cheltenham winner Knight Salute like Porticello has a 5lb penalty today but isn’t a certainly to confirm October Kempton form with the Munir and Souede runner Impulsive One trained at Seven Barrows by Nicky Henderson. Impulsive One is now 12lb better off for a 2L beating and has been given a wind operation since. That may be enough to turn the tables on Milton Harris’s Knight Salute and with hopefully the dead eight running appeals as an each way bet here. Paul Nicholls saddles Magistrato who definitely comes into the reckoning here with Bryony Frost in the saddle but I’ll take a chance on the Henderson runner each way.
IMPULSIVE ONE 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123 Bet365
Cheltenham 3.00
A sub standard International Hurdle run over 2m 1F with seven hurdlers going to post for this Unibet sponsored contest. Alan King’s Sceau Royal has arguably the best form here and with the ground apparently riding just on the slow side looks the pick here. He’s a horse that doesn’t want the ground too soft. Last years winner Song For Someone ran respectively on his re-appearance at Ascot behind the smart Buzz and should be involved in the finish one would think. Ireland sends over a brace of runners in the Henry De Bromhead trained Ballyadam and the Paul Hennessy trained Heaven Help Us. The former has been novice chasing this season with no success whilst the latter, who won the Coral Cup this year has to prove his effectiveness back at 2 miles. This isn’t race I have a strong opinion on so will keep stakes small and play Sceau Royal who comes here in fine form.
SCEAU ROYAL 1 point win @ 5/2 Bet365
Doncaster 3.15
Only 7 go to post for this 3 mile handicap chase with Olly Murphy saddling a couple in The Wolf and Jett who are both having their first run of the season today with the latter formerly trained by Jessie Harrington. Top weight Two For Gold looks the most likely winner here with his excellent record fresh of 1412. He’s trained but Kim Bailey who has his Gloucestershire team in such fine form and a bold effort is fully expected with David Bass doing the steering.
TWO FOR GOLD 2 points win @ 2/1 Boyles
Cheltenham 3.35
A mares handicap hurdle run over 2m 4 1/2F which has a competitive look about it with Paul Webber’s smart mare Indefatigable heading the weights here. She certainly wouldn’t be out of things despite the steadier of 11-12. Martello Sky was well backed last time at Aintree but was a tad disappointing although actually did have a tough task at the weights that day and Lucy Wadham’s mare is also a player. It’s the lightly raced Jonjo O’Neill trained Trapista that catches my eye however, only a 4 year old she was an impressive winner at Huntingdon on her British debut having joined the Jackdaws Castle maestro from N Clement in France for £22k to legendary owner JP McManus. That already looks a bargain following the Huntingdon win and it must of been very hard for the handicapper to have allotted her a mark with such little form to go on. There’s mixed messages from that win with the 2nd and 3rd beaten since but the 4th and 5th winning next time out. With trainers son Jonjo Junior in the saddle I’m willing to take her as my bet here.
TRAPISTA 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365
MCLARKE got a reaction from Nigwilliam in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
MCLARKE got a reaction from gbettle in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
MCLARKE got a reaction from kroni in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th December
MCLARKE got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th December
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MCLARKE got a reaction from Zilzalian in Racing Chat - Wednesday 8th December ?
MCLARKE got a reaction from The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th December