Hotspur88 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1115 Pau Taqdeer 5/4 5pt win 1310 Wolverhampton Famous Star 8/11 & 1340 Wolverhampton Tio Mio 8/11 To Be Placed double @ 2/1 5pt win 1900 Kempton Bellosa 10/3 4pt win 14pts staked ?? The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) Going to be gruelling at Hexham, low weights should have an advantage. Gone for a silly £1 e/w acca for 20k +. Shoughall Boy 12.20 Flaming Glory 12.50 The Dawn Man 13.50 Charm Offensive 14.20 Southeast Rose 14:50 Espoir Morivire 3:20 Out on 2nd leg Edited December 8, 2021 by yossa6133 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Ling 230 Doitforthevillage 9/1 ew bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 in the bull 12.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 swapped 12.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Hotspur88 said: 1115 Pau Taqdeer 5/4 5pt win 1310 Wolverhampton Famous Star 8/11 & 1340 Wolverhampton Tio Mio 8/11 To Be Placed double @ 2/1 5pt win 1900 Kempton Bellosa 10/3 4pt win 14pts staked ?? Nice start with one of the easiest wins you will see with Taqdeer barely coming off the bridle. 11.25pts back from first bet. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 AW selection Kempton 4.30 TANGLED WORDS 2/1 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 I didn't have a particularly successful NH season last year but I now have an extra year's data so I'll have another bash. Today's selection is from a system that concentrates on non handicaps with the main criteria being that forecast odds are greater than 13/8, the horse is in the top on the racecard and the horse is bred in the UK. Hexham 2.20 DEL LA MAR ROCKET 3/1 Wildgarden, Budgie 65 and gbettle 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Budgie 65 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 630 kem starry eyes 5/2 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) 2.30 Lin Grand Turina 2 pts win at 3.70 (hopefully Venetia will have this one ready) Loads of money for Bill And Barn -------------------------------------------- Too many ifs and buts plus too short prices for a Trixie later on today. I'll pass Edited December 8, 2021 by The Equaliser Update Hotspur88 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 25 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: 2.30 Lin Grand Turina 2 pts win at 3.70 (hopefully Venetia will have this one ready) Loads of money for Bill And Barn We had Grand Turina in the group also mate at 9/2 when it opened yesterday. The Equaliser and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said: We had Grand Turina in the group also mate at 9/2 when it opened yesterday. Well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 no trouble 4.45 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Charlie Arthur 7.30 ew lucky last Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 10 hours ago, yossa6133 said: Going to be gruelling at Hexham, low weights should have an advantage. Gone for a silly £1 e/w acca for 20k +. Shoughall Boy 12.20 Flaming Glory 12.50 The Dawn Man 13.50 Charm Offensive 14.20 Southeast Rose 14:50 Espoir Morivire 3:20 Out on 2nd leg I'm Sure but not certain.... but the opposite of your assumption is more true, overall the class of a horse becomes more pronounced when its gruelling ground. I'm sure others on here that deal in stats could tell you more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 8 hours ago, The Equaliser said: 2.30 Lin Grand Turina 2 pts win at 3.70 (hopefully Venetia will have this one ready) Loads of money for Bill And Barn -------------------------------------------- Too many ifs and buts plus too short prices for a Trixie later on today. I'll pass RESULTS UPDATE Just the one selection and winner today. The net profit was 5.09 so my cumulative profit for Dec is 55.31 points. Ytd 1/1 to date = -£177.86 pts Five races tomorrow in the UK above class 4. I will look at them first MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Zilzalian said: I'm Sure but not certain.... but the opposite of your assumption is more true, overall the class of a horse becomes more pronounced when its gruelling ground. I'm sure others on here that deal in stats could tell you more. Always happy to oblige. In handicaps on heavy going horses carrying less than 11st 2lbs have an AE of 1.03, those above have an AE of 0.97. This is despite the heavier weights having a strike rate of 13% compared to 10% for the lower weights. The impact is greater for chases, with an AE of 1.04 compared to 1.02 for hurdles. Male horses have an AE of 1.05 compared to 0.95 for female horses. GB courses have an AE of 1.04, Ireland is 0.99. Zilzalian, gbettle, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 8 hours ago, Zilzalian said: I'm Sure but not certain.... but the opposite of your assumption is more true, overall the class of a horse becomes more pronounced when its gruelling ground. I'm sure others on here that deal in stats could tell you more. Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 I wouldn't be comfortable with a system that was based on only 163 results. I suspect also there was an element of back-fitting. gbettle and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I wouldn't be comfortable with a system that was based on only 163 results. I suspect also there was an element of back-fitting. It would be interesting to see the stats difference between say Cheltenham/Punchestown festivals against "run of the mill races" or graded v run of the mill Hcaps Edited December 9, 2021 by Zilzalian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Seems logical that weight is more difficult to carry on heavy ground/galloping track. I like ones with 10-0 and a 7lb claimer! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Here's a few more weight systems from Steve Jones (https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/previousresult.htm) And here's his definition of a "tight" track, https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/nhtrack.htm Zilzalian and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 6:52 AM, MCLARKE said: I wouldn't be comfortable with a system that was based on only 163 results. I suspect also there was an element of back-fitting. Having said that, I have checked the results over the last 8 years and it has returned an AE of 1.03 from 3,448 selections. On soft / heavy AE is 1.08 Class 1 to 4 AE is 1.05 19 - 22 furlongs AE is 1.12 Forecast odds rank 4 to 10 AE is 1.17 Age 7-8 AE is 1.09 Last run less than 10 days ago AE is 1.10 7lb claimers AE is 1.17 1st last time AE is 1.08 CD winner AE is 1.08 December to February AE is 1.08 Non novice AE is 1.06 Tuesday to Friday AE is 1.14. I may well add this to my list of systems. gbettle and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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