Glentoby
-
Posts
105 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Posts posted by Glentoby
-
-
This is just speculative as I am no fan of the AW.However Ed Dunlop appears to have found a weak race for Sanam in the last at Wolves.The horse looks one paced to date and has raced behind for 3 runs to date,he was only 5/1 sp for his debut over C&D and was nibbled at,presumably showing some ability at home prior.
Those 3 runs qualified him for handicaps and Ed Dunlop has got him into this apprentice race on an official rating of 50 from which he would not have to improve much to have a shout.He has engaged Eddie Greatrex who is one of the best in this field and applied first time blinds.
Suggests either desperation or an expectation of a better showing,possibly riding closer to the pace than previous.Worth an ew interest as either blinds or jockey could spark some improvement in this race,wont need much to figure. 15/2
-
Starting the New Year with the men in white coats standing by? And I do not mean vets,breathalyser toting BHA hawks or even badly dressed Glaswegian gangsters,I mean the ones who will whip you away to the nearest padded cell for even thinking about getting involved in a Maiden Hurdle run on Heavy ground.
i am willing to take my chance with anyone wearing a white coat to put up one I think could win and possibly overpriced in Ayr's opener providing the course passes an early inspection.Ardean Lass is equiped with a first time hood tomorrow and receives weight from the fav plus her jockeys 3lb claim which combined put her within 3lb on official ratings.However the main reason for picking her to open her account under rules is the heavy ground.
She looks to me like she wants a bit further than the 2m 41/2 F tomorrow but nothing else in the race appeals as proven in the ground whereas she has shown it holds no fears,the fav has never encountered these conditions and 11/10 versus 4/1 looks too big a gap based on everything we know so far,I sense a bit of a punt happening and the trainer explaining the new headgear as the difference.It may well be the 1st time hood could make a difference but even without it I would still consider her the better value.
Individual choice obviously but I cannot see her going off much bigger than 5/2 and will be laying the fav win and place as to me looks a plodder with plenty to prove on the ground and more than one possible improver lurking.The win at 4/1 is the main tip and the lay of the fav based around the reasons given.
Good luck if you have a dabble,do the best for price & BOG is possible,just cannot see her going off 4/1.
-
Hi Billy,agree with your observations but have no idea who administered each individual element.Such a shame the whole went down the pan as it did but inevitable due to a minority.An example of how things can fall apart and deteriorate because of even one or two "Antagonists,protagonists"
Shit stirring idiots in other words,drove the good guys to not even bother to post as the level of personal abuse reached epic proportions,not only on threads but through personal messages.Obviously got to the point where it ended up with a handful of dedicated people keeping things going.
I would urge them and the former posters driven away to name the protagonists by user name and invite them to join here as equals and see where it goes?
-
To quickly introduce you to Molerat,he rides work all over the UK and sometimes in Ireland and France,flat and jumps.Breaks yearlings and educates young and old equine and human.Gives little in the way of betting information either personaly or from contacts.Like myself,passionate that punters have as much info as possible and practicable on an honest and level playing field.
Has passed on the following about a horse who will be 10 years old on Monday,having his 1st run over hurdles.Knows the horse has schooled very well and knows he has done so in years past as he himself has schooled him.Knows Brian Hughes well and if all goes to plan expects them to run these rivals into the grond from the front.The few doubts surround a couple of the opposition having younger legs and maybe more zip,however he thinks that providing no mistakes in the jumping he will grind them into submission.However Hughes will not revert to the stick unless still with a chance at the last,will not beat him up but will go hell for leather with hands and heels for the place at least.
11/2 general, Molerat cannot see him out of the places even throwing in a mistake or two and says ew looks safest given the potential of the younger legs but very hopeful of a winning debut. High Jinx 1405 Doncaster
Good luck if you have a dabble.
-
No it is not a typo,know how to spell Dictatorship,it was just to get your attention and opinion about the state of the National Hunt game between Ireland and the UK.In the UK you have critics of the Novice Chase situation from the likes of Nicky Henderson and PFI Nichols,Graduation Chases...........mostly at the upper end of the market admittedly.
But here is the contrast of the upper end in Ireland which sometime in the not too distant future is going to destroy the game as we know it.Nicky and Paul are on record in being critics of the Novice Chase and Graduation Chase situation this year e.g small fields etc,both more or less saying they are too easy to win.Strange given you would think the easier the better £20k or £50k here and there for a schooling session for their best?
How clever then does that make the Irish? Not insinuating they are thick or anything but surely there are some missing a trick staying at home and taking on a Dictatorship? Some send horses to Perth or Wolverhampton in search of 3 or 4 grand.Money that is available in some races over fences for novices for finishing 3rd or 4th in the UK,where are they? More to the point where are the British trainers,protecting marks or something sinister or just Noblelocks?
For those of you with longish memories the losing most horse in British racing used to have his costs covered just for traveling to Haydock simply because his trainer Ted Caine looked at the conditions of the race and course policy.
I digress,the Machine is back tomorrow for an Irish Grade 1, 2/11 forecast ,if he goes off longer than 1/8 I will be shocked.Buying money for nothing although I will not be in the queue,leave that to Steve Palmer at the Racing Post.
Getting swiftly back to Dictators and Ricci must be feeling he has been outdictated with GIGS,not Ryan,he is Welsh although you could be forgiven if your from Kerry for getting confused.The difference between JP and the Ryanair midget is his love of the horse.JP has always spread his herd far and wide among a plethora of trainers,large to small.Always had a scattergun approach in some races to try for the win.
Now we come to megalomaniacs who feel the need to win regardless,ego,no more no less.Reduced Leopardstown to a stage solely for his benefit and most of the Irish NH pattern.5 horse race he will have 4,as much respect as I have for Willie Mullins he doninated because he had his own megalomaniac and now being defeated by his own tactics
The legacy left by Sheik Mohammed,Khalid and the Aga will be for centuries despite all the bull of the establishment about Arabs taking over British racing,they saved the industry in both the uk and Ireland.
The whole industry in Ireland now rests with one superpower i.e Gigginstown? Legacy,lots of trophies,lots of smaller yards out of business even Willie Mullins humiliated for the sake of 50p per week.Of course there are individuals who will benefit in the short term,always will be for the short term gain of a dictator who cares not for the long term.
Give me JP,Nicky H and PFI anyday?
-
I think you have done an amazing job and I am so angry and dissapointed with myself that instead of just reading did not contribute.Believing foolishly that the voices of half a dozen really decent posters could make Racecaller rise above the idiots.i hope a few have followed,even including the idiots because they will be easy for you to spot and get rid of before any damage is done.
In the hope though that they might actually realise they can look and learn and benefit.I love banter and I can take criticism with the best,and give it...............but it has to be quantified and justified to merit interaction and here seems to embrace that without getting heavy handed.
Youself and Billy seem to have a good grip of what makes a successful Forum,you have my full backing and i can only hope a few more follow an pass the word on as I am doing.
- BillyHills and Sir Puntalot
-
2
-
For the benefit of Birchy and anyone else trying to sort out the connundrum of BOG,BF,SP or any other betting method of following tips.Billy hits the nail on the head when he says find your own way.Not everyone who posts a tip can get on with a particular bookie at the price they want or to the stake they want.
Therefore anyone following might find that the price advised might be shortened by one bookie,static with another etc,even Betfair is sensitive early to a flood of £5 and £10 bets,probably more so as the bookies use them as their "feelers" these days.
The best thing to do imo is decide which tip you are going to back,spread your bet as widely as practicable.Decide before you back it how much you want to win rather than how much you want to stake and stake accordingly.Sounds simplistic but lets say the tip is put up at 5/2 and the best you can find is 9/4,are you not going to back it?
Even if the best you can find is 2/1 does not mean you have missed the "value",so rather than not back it just up your stake to a level where you will win what you hoped for with the original price and if you can get BOG all the better.Over time it will work out for your P % L even without BOG if you base your betting around what you want to win rather than how much you want to risk on your stake.
-
RUK/Racecaller forum users around? Asking for a few reasons,one being it would be nice to catch up with some old faces and swap a few tales of old,characters etc and just general catching up.Also would be interesting to canvas opinion about this site in terms of how things have changed over the years.Personally I miss the Racing Post for the variation of characters and the breadth of opinion and knowledge.The interaction with the likes of Steve Dennis.
Betfair by contrast was a kindergarten of seemingly "My dad is bigger than yours mentality" RUK/Racecaller populated by egomaniacs with low IQs and little knowledge of anything beyond their own bedsit who unfortunately drove many good people away and ultimately signed the death warrant for the site.
This site by contrast has a bright future and I hope at least some of the old guard have taken my advice and followed my reccomendation to return or give it a try.Such a depth and breadth of knowledge would be a sorry loss if they gave up because of bad experiences elsewhere.I should have never left and regret too much time tilting at windmills in the hope of changing attitudes of a stupid and ignorant minority.
Great to know that the majority on here still hold fast to the concept of helping fellow posters and confident enough to post their opinion with little fear of the abuse and ridicule too common on Betfair and the now defunct Racecaller.I hope some of the old guard look in and grace us with their presence and any that are already here make themselves known?
For my part I hope to be able to contribute to the benefit of everybody and in due course introduce the Molerat with his network of contacts throughout the country to the benefit of the forum.One thing that has not changed is my passion for tackling authority or those who seek to scam punters.The most significant success has been the BHA being persuaded to put notifications on form pages of horses who have undergone wind operations having their first runs.
Always controversy as not everyone always agrees with change,particularly if having a vested interest,usually financial.My next quests are to see notifications made on racecards of fillies/mares in foal following a positive scan and gelding,to be made mandatory before a horses first run following such an event.Punters deserve to know such information,makes no difference if the event has a positive or negative effect on performance.No different imo to first time headgear etc,the punter should have the info and then decide in what way they choose to use it,if at all.
The days of trainers explaining away a vastly improved run following one or more poor efforts to the Stewards,BHA or punters should be a thing of the past no longer acceptable in these days of transparency,the BHAs own word.BTW just because some of my posts are made under the influence of Single Malt do not mean that research has not been done,skewed as some of it will likely be.
The bottom line is I will never post anything I do not think can be beneficial to my fellow punters,even those posts that are way wide of actual events and look crazy in hindsight!!!
- BillyHills and Sir Puntalot
-
2
-
What do you take from that race for Cheltnham? Other than Bristol De Mai will NEVER win a Gold Cup unless the ground was a bog.His trainer post race "No idea etc" Most could tell imo that the horse A.did not have the talent or speed for the KG B.Is a plodder that does not cut it at the top table.
The winner had a ton in hand and could have gone around again despite the diminishing margin at the finish.Only one horse to take out of the race with Gold Cup aspirations imvho,the 4th was the one for Chelt GC 16/1 and bits...........ew bet to no worries if he gets there.
Might Bite will falter before the 2nd last in the GC and flatter to deceive approaching the last,Thistlecack on the other hand will be on the bridle and bound up the hill.
Only opinion,maybe fantasy............but give me another at 16s you think can do it?
-
Had this on for a while but even now could turn a profit.
Reigningsupreme
Ballyoptic
Delusionofgrandeur
Thistlecrack
Rare multiple for me but rarely without a profit,suggest ew Lucky 15 and ew acca
Currently 4/1,7/2,9/2 and 6/1
Only 2 places Ballyoptic 1/4 odds,will win so no worries!!!!
-
Absolutely not Billy,just wondered about recent stuff? We go back a long way.
-
Glad to see you use the word "should"?? I think more or less what I said,but pace to be set and fences to be jumped.Only 8 runners but only one winner.
"cant touch Thistlecrack with a bargepole" It might come back and bite???
Not the same horse you saw at Newbury!!! Nap
Whisper & Thistlecrack Dutched and a rev fcast here.
GOOD LUCK ALL!!!
-
It is now Christmas day officially and fairly most of you are going to say,how sad and lonely is he posting on here.You are correct in a way,I am sad and I am lonely at this particular time.
However I will not be lonely for long,she will be home shortly singing having been to Midnight Mass.She will tell me that the vintage port bottle is empty,full when she left,the Glenmorangie is depleted.She is without doubt correct,arent they always?
She will not though accept why I do not go to Midnight Mass,I have explained for too many years about swerving the instinct to have a punt,even on Christmas day.Every punter needs at least one day to reflect on the year just gone or years before regardless of ethnicity or religious persuation.So the following is just a reflection of a confused agnostic,not an atheist with respect for all religion.
Catholic Church,normal Mass...........The priest stands up on his podium and challenges "I can beat you at dominoes"..several bookies runners then scuttle through the audience with a plate taking bets.Never once saw anybody being paid out?
Sininggog (yes I know it is spelled wrong).........Similar bookies runners,Rabbi collects all the bets and at least does it in public.Throws all the bets in the air from the silver plate and chants "What goes up and stays up our great god can keep,what lands back on the plate we can rightfully keep"
Only a snapshot of the religious world and why you should avoid their churches at this time if you are a punter,they are unlikely to help you avoid the urge to have a bet and you have no chance of a return on your investment unless you believe in an afterlife.In which case you should seek out a Bhuddist ,Sikh or Muslim Bookie.
Even then be carefull,I went to a Muslim funeral in Glasgow last year and spoke to a Bhuddist Bookie who was looking at a Jewish Bookie called Yehudi McKewan,who's great grandson had played the violin apparently.I was intrigued,were they here to pay their respects and how did they know the deceased? Turns out the deceased had an account with both of them and had won on an ITV 7 the day before he died.
Mori (the Jewish bookie) said "he had the bet with me,£57,000,it would have broken me",the Bhuddist Bookie replied "Jesus Christ Mori,did you pay him"? Mori said "Of course I did,i gave him a cheque but I forgot to sign it" Bhuddist Bookie says "Why are you really here then you have nothing to worry about"?
Mori "Just wanted to protect his family,they don't know he gambles and I was hoping the betting slip goes up in flames with him"
Bhuddist bookie "Glad about that Mori,just hoping I can get back the bottle of single malt I gave him last week on tick"
Mori "You religious lot and material things make me Sikh"...............A priest appears and goes into an incantation of how amed was actually Jewish to his Glaswegian Wife and to all intents and purposes was a devout Muslim to his other family,didnt gamble,didnt drink.
The priest "And as we lay our dear brother to rest,husband,father,brother,son etc etc" Mori pipes up "He was a dark one then,how did he die" The priest not knowing the congregation says "He was stabbed leaving a betting shop by an Arab recently granted asylum by Theresa May,the only thing in his possession was a betting slip worth £57,000 which the Arab says is rightfuly his.
The Arab claims asylum and passed the "British test" i.e could name the last 20 KG winners,Gold Cup winners and APs first winner for Martin Pipe.
The rest has yet to be resolved but if I have learned one thing,punting trancends all religion?????????????
- jonshell and BillyHills
-
2
-
The only way you can determine value is through your own calculations on your reading of a race and the prices available for you to back or lay,only you can determine value in as much as your own definition.
Unless there is a return on your bet then there is NO Value.getting 33/1 on a horse that shortens to 5/1 and is unplaced it is all very well,unless you subsequently laid it shorter it is of NO value.Ok you got the "value" in terms of price but did you get a return?
If a horse goes off shorter or bigger than that which you calculated its chances were does it mean you either got the value or missed it? Makes no difference unless you had a return.In short if you take 4/1 the night before and your horse wins at 6/1 have you missed the value? if you took 6/1 and the horse wins at 7/2 are you going to say you had the value?
I say in my first post on here about Thistlecrack being the "value" in the KG but that is with all factors taken into account,ditto laying BDM and my comments regarding Whisper in the same race.
Listen to your own gut,use your own perception,value like beauty lies within the beholder.
Good Luck and best wishes for the festive season
-
Anyone making massive profits from them or stories to tell?
-
Exactly as you say Playschool,no different to giving 6 tips in a 6 horse race to different people,at least one will be happy and come back for more.
Same principal,same con.Anyone receiving such,post the details and he/she/they are easily caught.
-
11 hours ago, Trotter said:
On initial look my first thought is that Whisper represents good value at 8/1 with the Might Bite at 11/8 Fav
In the RSA Whisper finished a nose behind Might Bite and then 2L behind at Aintree
A nose and 2L is nothing in the chaos of a 3 mile jumps race....... a stutter at one fence can cost you 2 lengths.
Whisper has also won over these fences whereas Might Bite fell the only time he's run in a chase here at Kempton (to be fair that was at the last fence when he looked all over the winner)
Cannot disagree Trotter,you theory is as sound as a £ in terms of these two.Still cannot believe Might Bite came and done me at Cheltenham and Whisper was my bridesmaid again.Nicky might say that Might Bite is over his quirks,but is he? Given the relative prices,again I agree.
However few know what they have better than Nicky so you have to factor in why Might Bite was first choice for the KG and Whisper only considered after his excellent Ladcrook run? The fact Whisper was raised 12lb came as no surprise to me and pretty certain Nicky was having some fun in expressing shock,he knows Whisper is bordering on Grade 1 and will win one sooner rather than later.
It could be Tuesday and he will carry a saver for me,as you say,one mistake can change a race and this KG is likely to be fast and furious with Thistlecrack from the front setting testing fractions.If this is the case and I am led to believe it will be there will be no hiding place and a rythmn will be key and jumping put to the test.
Still a connundrum if Thistlecrack falls apart,who picks up the gauntlet,at the prices Whisper looks better value than Mite Bite even if he has the latent talent to tear them apart.
Good luck all and a Happy Christmas
-
11 hours ago, Birchy said:
Hi all.
New to the forum but have been lurking for a while...
I started backing the tips from the homepage a few weeks ago but am currently showing a loss of -24% ROI to level stakes. I place my bets on the betfair exchange early morning on race day, asking for the prices suggested on the tips page +5% to allow for commission. Unmatched bets are set to take BSP.
Obviously ANY strategy is price critical - if we take poor prices, then we are bleeding away value. So I am wondering if I'm actually taking poor value? Having said that, the strike rate so far is around 25%, so I'm assuming it's just a bad month?
Snap Birchy but the biggest flaw I can see is taking BF prices early morning,the majority of layers are either fishing or looking for an arb.BF are finished in terms of being a platform to match with fellow punters.It is a bookmakers tissue,no more no less for early prices.
Best as suggested try and get BOG where possible and use BF exchange near the off if possible.
-
Mr Beaumont is perfectly respectable and when you get to know him better he will invite you to call him Peter.He used to train a horse called Jodami who should have won the HGC at Newbury,now the Ladcrook or similar.Jodami was ridden by a jockey named Dwyer which confused me somewhat as he suddenly popped up at Royal Ascot riding a winner right down the rail.
Now that I think of it perhaps they are not the same Beaumont or Dwyer otherwise Jodami would have won.Only joking of course in terms of the horse etc,or am I?
Joking apart,highlighting scams is one of my passions and your post is a certainty.Scum like these think they are bullet proof in their wording etc,they are NOT. Using Pecuniary advantage is an offence contrary to the Theft Act 1968 but goes much further back in time as an offence.
Ring him or contact him with whatever details he supplied and tell him you have 2 winners you need to pay him for and ask when the next tip runs.In the meantime contact your local Police Force prior to this and explain,if they do nothing,post on here and I will follow through.
-
Hello everyone,my first post on here for a long time and first using my original from Betfair and the Racing Post.I hope that those of you who remember me will appreciate that the end game is to help others where possible with opinion and where appropriate passing on information not always available to the general population.My first post concerns the KG which despite only an 8 runner field as it stands at the moment is a connundrum.
However why Bristol De Mai is 7/2 is beyond me despite the Betfair Chase at Haydock.I said weeks ago on the defunct Racecaller Forum that he could not win a KG unless it was a furlong longer and he was in a horsebox.Of course now with only 8 runners and a couple of no hopers on known form I could be left with egg on my face and a hole in my pocket.
Even so I have not changed my mind about him despite finding it difficult to nail my colours to the mast for the winner.Unless Kempton gets the 20mm of rain forecast by one forecaster then I cannot see BDM beating Might Bite,Thistlecrack,Whisper or Fox Norton despite any question marks regarding all of them,the others should not threaten imo.
So the confident recommendation is to lay BDM for the win and a smaller lay for the place even at this stage as even if they get the full 20mm it will be nothing like Haydock.For the win on todays ground and even if they get the 5mm from the other forecast then Thistlecrack is the value for me despite his seemingly lacklustre performance at Newbury,his work since has been as good as ever.Not sitting on the fence although it might seem so but given so many question marks over the principles,the weather etc I cant go alt in on Thistlecraft.
That said if he was anywhere near last years condition they will not get near him,my confidence is all about laying BDM.Good luck whatever your bets,just fingers crossed my first post as myself pays off for any who take the opinion as valid.
- Sir Puntalot and BillyHills
-
2
Racing Chat - Wednesday Jan 3rd
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Proves the futility of guessing,read just a few minutes later.Bruce Raymond stated "Works like a 75 rated horse at home so should be in the mix off 50" or words to that effect.
Only 25lb difference!!!! LOL what chance ordinary punters with tipsters like me and racing managers like Bruce?
Never mind,speculative never killed anyone,yet!!