Glentoby
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Posts posted by Glentoby
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16 minutes ago, Alastair said:
Surely it is how information is interpreted that is key - coupled with the right temperament. I think it is wrong to say that if everyone is using the same information that nobody will ever have an edge. There will be individuals who are more talented and better suited to the job in hand than others.
Nothing to do with information Alastair,solely commenting on so called "Systems" and why do people follow them knowing from the start they cannot win?
As far as I am aware I personally own the only method which will produce a long term profit,not a "system" as popularly refered to and devised after 2 decades + of research.My sole motivation for posting on any racing or betting forum is to give the average punter an edge.No more,no less.
My method would be no good to the average or even prudent punter or greedy chancers.I had an offer to purchase it following a trial by 4 individuals on the BF Forum,over a year using it.Bound by copyright etc and proven beyond doubt the worth of it.
The only time I was tempted to sell I had an offer that was £40,000 short of the £600,000 I would accept.All documented and recorded for posterity.I would only sell on condition that the proceeds went to SSAFA,knowing full well that would be the only payoff.
The offer came from a well known tipping operation who continue to rip off punters Nationwide and now coming up to their most lucrative period.
It is still for sale but £600k is the minumum I would consider to part with it on behalf of SSAFA!!
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12 hours ago, EviL ZippY said:
wait, so you’re trashing something you admit you know nothing about ?
David Davis, is that you..???
In case you missed it "Spent 2 decades + researching" So trashing something I have probably forgotten more about than most will learn? LOL
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Like throwing a dart at a dartboard or rolling a pair of dice? Nobody with ANY sense could expect a profit so why are there thousands of posts on the "systems" threads and few on the actual machinations of the industies of horse racing and bookmaking?
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My apologies if the following upsets or angers anyone but there are times when the saying "Being cruel to be kind" is true and facts indisputable.
I have never read any of the "systems threads" on here and rarely on other sites and then only to point out the obvious failure.Quite simply there is not a "system" that will make a long term profit from betting on horse racing.Short term there have been possibilities,mathematical or otherwise.
Long term there is more chance of finding an honest politicain,a BHA member of staff with common sense or a Bookmaker/Accountant willing to keep your account alive and accept bets that consistently win more than they lose.This apart there is no system that can worry any Bookie alive or dead even before they became accountants.
I have been active before in highlighting this on various forums and including the likes of Racing Post,Betfair etc.I have obtained almost every so called "System" known to man since gambling became a part of life.All trialled and tested over 2 decades,some paid for just to obtain the so called "System".I spent over a decade on research and found that even before this digital age,most were nothing more than a variation of centuries old turning base metals into gold.
Nothing has changed and especially now in 2018 it is about time punters woke up to the fact there is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.Without going into the merits of each "System" or otherwise.The plain and simple facts is that there is not a Bookmaker in Businness who will even let you beyond the point of initial succeess which some "systems" produce.
So why do these punters persist in following the posts and perpetuating the myth in 2018 when not only has it been proven THEY DO NOT WORK,never have,never will and even if they did would not be accommodated by ANY bookie this side of a grave?
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Sorry for the late post,had meant to post this as a topic earlier,however got sidetracked and was typing another topic when suddenly realised.
The intrigue is this,the horse was owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum until the 1st of November last year,his last run in this ownership was over 5f on the 21st of October at Catterick ridden by tonights jockey.
He was gelded on the 7th of November last year and apparently had no known owner from the 1st of November to the 3rd of January,a couple of weeks ago..So who owned him when he had the chop and who's decision was this? His present owners are registered from 3rd of January,his first run was over 8f at Southwell on the 9th of January where he weakened quickly.
His next run was 6 days later at Wolverhampton over 8.5 f,strange given how quickly he weakened at Southwell even given the different surface.I was advised by Molerat to have a dabble on him for the Wolves race,he said he knew the trip would not be an issue.
i backed the horse based on his opinion at 14/1,20s + was available before I backed him.Opened at 20s on course and returned sp of 10/1.Was beaten by a head by one of Hugo Palmers,5/4 fav who drifted from slight odds on.I collected on the ew even though only 2 places as Molerat suggested only the fav was a danger.
He will not explain why he was so confident but the money spoke volumes that the 8.5 f was not expected to be an issue despite prior to gelding had been purely a sprinter.The drop to 7f tonight seemed to make sense and was born out as he actually seemed to outstay his rivals.
He never left the MJ stable during the period mentioned i.e "Owner unknown" and gelding and finding new owners on the 3rd of January a few weeks ago.Is it purely coincidence or perhaps an inspired guess that his new owners upped him to a mile on a stamina sapping surface and then upped him again at Wolves where he was punted heavily and beaten a head?
Or had he been worked at home following his Noble Locks op and shown up well over further than 5f or 6f? This is an absolute certainty otherwise Molerat would not have known to tell me to back him.At the risk of upsetting Molerat I would like to know who owned him following Hamdan getting rid and was gelding a condition of the sale?
What chance the average punter with only form in the book to go by? Not suggesting any misdemeanours but valid concerns just the same.
What do you think?
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An intrigue that this horse went missing between Nov 2017 and Jan 3rd this year i.e Owner unknown.
Sprinter in the past,gelded meantime and I backed him lto over a mile +.
Tries 7f now and could conceivably make all.
Poets Society £20 win 3/1 general
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An old saying during my time in the forces was Bullshit Baffles Brains and for the most part was true e.g if skivving simply carry a clipboard and a pen around,nobody ever challenged what I was doing or more importantly what I wasn't doing.
Applying this to horse racing seems quite pertinent when you consider the stuff some trainers (most) come out with to explain a horses performance etc.Language that is alien to those not conversant with the seemingly indecipherable lingo of the racing and punting world.
However it seems that the BBB mantra is being used in plain English by Bookmakers and trainers alike recently.
Bookmakers are arguing about the proposed reduction in stakes to £2 in FOBT's e.g X amount of shops will have to close if this is implemented and X amount of jobs lost. What they seem to try and avoid is that these shops are no longer needed for betting on horseracing.They cite the potential loss to the Levy etc etc,important no doubt to horseracing and funding.However thay also fail to mention that these same shops only keep open due to the income from FOBT's and the % bet on horses within in them is minimal.
Most importantly imo is the failure to acknowledge that the income from FOBT's is from a minority who can be rightly described as problem gamblers and who generally come from the lower income bracket i.e those most vulnerable and at risk with the consequent problems this brings to family and friends of these gamblers.The Bookies are making a big issue of the loss to the Levy etc,redundancies,shops closing.Stating that these gamblers will simply go elsewhere and probably not turn to horseracing as an alternative.
it is a bit like the Police saying we have decided that the people who rip off old age pensioners for fixing roofs that do not need fixing will suffer if we crack down on them and introduce an automatic 5 years inside.If we do this they will go elsewhere and start doing tree surgery and paving drives for these vulnerable people.We have had many complaints from roofing material suppliers stating it may affect their bottom line if we lock these people up.The suppliers of paving bricks etc will benefit because these vulnerable grannies will only spend their money on a new drive instead of a roof.Still being ripped off but taking my share of the market away from me.
It's not fair you locking people up who subsidise my business,I don't give a monkeys if they are vulnerable,without their money I am going to have to lay people off.Can't you start with the tarmac gangs?
See the parallel? No interest in the vulnarabilty of the victim,no interest in the source of the income,scaremongering that any change will only move the problem to another outlet.The bottom line is that these Bookies are only interested in their own bottom line and do not care about these vulnerable punters.Only that if the maximum stake is reduced to £2 these punters will go elsewhere to continue gambling and someone else will benefit.
The reduced stake is not a solution but at least it is a start,if a High Street Betting shop cannot operate as a licenced betting shop without the income from FOBT's then imo it does not merit the licence in the first place.Whilst this debate rages the same Bookmakers have been deafening in their response regarding closing accounts or imposing restrictions on not only winning accounts but using a mysterious formula to impose these closures or restrictions on punters who may at some future juncture actually win.
To conclude I would be interested to hear what you guys think and also your own experiences and I will just throw in to the mix the issue of Wind Ops being notified on the race card,help or hindrance?
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Secret Escape 1st at Ludlow
Ofcoursehewill 1435hrs Ludlow
9/2 and 16/1 general with BOG
£8 win Secret escape
£3 ew Ofcoursehewill
£3 ew double
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Only one person knows if this will become fact and the assumed 1st in line will probably actually be 4th or 5th after certain others.An email from the Molerat informs me that Brian Hughes is giving serious consideration about a retainer with Donald Mcain.If true and he accepts then probably Donald will be the 4th or 5th to know following all the readers on here,before the Racing Post et al.
That apart he has said that Brian is going to Ludlow to cement future relationships and in the hope Secret Escapes can transfer her exciting homework and schooling to the track.Up against King and Henderson she looks up against it in terms of form and experience.However few better judges than Molerat and he says she will go very close barring accidents.Around 9/2 he thinks well worth an interest.
Later on Brian is on another McCain hurdle debutante Ofcoursehewill,also schooled well but a chaser in the making over further,however Molerat says he will be played for stamina and could sneak a place at the least in the 1435hrs at Ludlow and worth an ew shout at 16/1.
I'm going ew singles at 9/2 and 16/1 and ew double with BOG where I can get on.Good luck if you have a dabble.
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Don't make me laugh,"Priceguise" or "Pricedisguise"? I gave Segal the benefit of the doubt too many times over the years after so many claims allegedely by the Racing Post and Bookmakers as to the help he was to punters and the damage he caused to the books.
Why if his selections caused so much grief and money to the "Books" were they all happy to use his prowess in their adverts? The simple answer is that long term they make money out of his selections.There is no Profit and Loss column in the "Pricewise" ledger for the simple reason it would show a MASSIVE loss.He again swerved perfectly valid questions during his live Q & A tonight.
WHY?
I asked several to give him a chance to consider them before he went live,he answered 0,nil,none zilch,niente.Admittedly only the last two were directly concerning the Cheltenham Festival following a comment.
i.e He replied to the "Who are the best apprentices riding at the moment"? He replied "James Bowen" and a few others,I replied "There are no apprentices over jumps or at the Festival"
No reply from him but shines a light on how much he really knows about the game.My other pertinnent question asked "What do you reckon on Politologues chance in the Champion Chase"?
Again no reply,I had already explained I tipped the horse on Racecaller at 6/1 for the Tingle Creek and advised ew for the KG and CC at 33/1 and 150s+ on exchanges for KG and 20s and 6/1 place for CC and advising if he won TC then the KG bet was in the bin..Asked how he felt if abused for this type of tip.No reply.
Challenged him personally and the Racing Post via betfair Forum to put up £50,000 against my own £50k to prove himself and themselves,they declined the challenge.This followed their claim on the front page of an !!/2 winner tipped by Segal,the reality was the horse won at 6/4 following about 4 or 5 withdrawals and mega rule 4s.
You may reasonably ask,why bother? I bother because he and they and bookmakers are still making profits from a falacy,your money in other words.The main victims being the small punters who actually finance the whole industry without a voice.Did the same regarding Brimardon.
I am but a lone voice and it will remain thus unless others have the guts to speak their minds,say what you think,good or bad.Nothing will ever change if you do not?
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Forget that if you are a regular user of RP "live" Qs and As.Either not prepared to answer or relying solely on TWATTER,even Facebook does not allow login at the moment.
Maybe just me asking awkward questions pre going live?
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Tom Segal is answering questions live on RP from 2000hrs online,get your questions in!!!
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No ingenuity here tipping a short priced fav but Wiff Waff in the last at Newcastle really should be the proverbial "Good thing".
Based solely around times over C & D he ran a much faster time than Lord Of The Glen carrying 9st 8lb as opposed to 8st 11lb,that is a massive difference and had they run against each other last time out at levels,in theory Wiff Waff would have destroyed him.
Doesnt always work like that obviously but if handicapping and times have any worth Wiff Waff should win.
£20 win Wiff Waff
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Casual Cavalier 1525 hrs Ayr
Needed run on return and placed in stronger race,should run a big race.
3/1 general 10/3 with PP £20 win
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Behindthelines 1240 Kelso
£10 ew 17/2 BOG
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Only tentative and more on potential than substance,however with the fav around 2/5 worth a mention as ew material.Don McCain could again have the fly in the ointment but his horse looks no better than average at this stage and 11/4 against the fav is not attractive.
Kelso is an ideal course for introducing PtP debutants as real stamina is a prerequisite.Behindthelines is highly thought of by his trainer although she has no pretentions of beating the fav.
I'm willing to risk the horse for a good ew around 7/1 (15/2 with B365),he is fit and ready to go and even his PtP form should see him in the frame,based on his homework he could win in 1st time tongue tie getting so much weight from the fav who has a double penalty.
Behindthelines ew 1240 Kelso
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BTW the BHA stated "Non thoroughbreds attending a racecourse increases the risk of biosecurity breaches" or words to that effect.No mention of the coach loads of pisshead idiots trucked into Ascot,Newmarket etc as part of Racing For Change.
Anyone see drunken brawls at Warwick or Lingfield because of Santa and Dray horses?
Bio security? Check the coaches they sponsor!!!!!
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Racing falls apart because Santa CLAWS and a couple of Shire Horses help racegoers get into the spirit of attending a racecourse? So ridiculous it takes the breath away,NOT Milkshaking,NOT Cobalt,not doped horses!!!!
Racing for Change advocated (sorry no Advocaat) and spent a £million + to attract a new generation of racegoers.The BHA paid them and encouraged "Marketing" teams to target this "New audience".
Would be funny if not so tragic,all the clowns performing at Ascot for "Shergar Cup" day when the rules of racing go out the window to the Clowns selling Kempton? The UK is becoming a laughing stock?
Obviously they never visit or watch the "sand racing" for crooks,too busy looking out for National TV covering Dray Horses and Santa?
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Duel At Dawn £20 win 1350 hrs Warwick 9/4
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Pixiepot in the first at Sedgefield £12 win
Wazowski in same race £4 win
Pixie to beat Waz £2 straight fcast and £1 rev fcast
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Don't take this as too significant but I have been restricted on how much the books will accept at 11/2 and 6/1,just do the best you can and take BOG where possible.Good luck.
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An eight year old maiden mare that is a hurdles virgin (winning) in fact according to the official stats she is not a maiden at all having won a "Bumper" on her racecourse debut at the age of 4.However she is a maiden over hurdles and for the first time in over 2 years appears to have been found a race where things fall into place for her to possibly lose that maiden status.The race is for 4 yo +,a handicap in which she is only fairly treated.
However connections have not lost faith,either in her or her trainer and as most know that is a rare thing in this day and age.Plenty of bigger stables could have taken this handicap in with an average contender starting out on the handicap route.However no 4 yo present and a real mix of apparent ability and ages.In other words a bit of a head scratcher,the Top Weight is owned by a heavywieght in Trevor Hemmings and Don McCain has Wazowski in the race as joint top weight of 4.He knows the score in terms of Hemmings horses and takes 5lb off,if the one I am going to give you does not win then this is the most likely.
Pixiepot has not had her optimum ground for over 2 years and been running over too short despite several creditable efforts on ground faster than ideal.Tomorrow in the first at Sedgefield she gets very easy ground,extra yardage and Brian Hughes back in the saddle.Everything seems to be in place for a big run in a winnable race.
11/2 general and 6/1 with BV seems at least generous enough given the opposition,will be going ew as we do not know whether the others have been messed around with to sneak in on a good mark.Will also be having a rev forecast with Wazowski.
Good luck if you have a dabble.
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Shame they could not get Lester,but keep your eyes open for a hurdles debut!!!
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In no way could Bettsalottie be described as a winner waiting to happen,He is still owned by his trainer but rumour has it he is soon to be tried over hurdles and is for sale.On that premise he could be on an extra going day/night with Willie Carson coming out of retirement to ride him again.
Ironically the source of this pending hurdles career sent me the email only to mention a post I made a short while back on racecaller.Our horse looked to have a race sewn up at Lingfield only to be chinned on the line by one of John Bridger's.
E.W would seem the way to go if having a bet on him at all but the fact he is for sale would suggest they will be trying their best.
good luck if you have a dabble around 9/1
The bearer of bad news,systems!!!
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Where did I say I failed Alastair? I stated that every system known to me had failed,trialled and proven through research.this for the benefit of the average punter and those who still think there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow.
I understand your reference to information but puzzled as to "What" information this might be,is it technological,mathematical or otherwise?
At least you are engaging in terms of inquiring,something that seems lacking on this site? It is a great site so don't get me wrong but Question,Question,Question should be the basis of a Forum and this is a platform for this.
I want to help,in any way shape or form for punters to make a profit or even just enjoy having a punt with a bit more knowledge?