Kentucky110
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Posts posted by Kentucky110
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Todays over 2.5 selections Highlighted in red
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Here are my first Ideas regarding Shots on Target (Not yet built into any Selection methods Bu feel free to give your Ideas/Options or Opinions. Data copied from Footcharts
What does it tell us?
1st 2 columns For and Against are self explanatory next 2 are averages for games played
G v S column = Shots on Target For / Goals scored so Man City 31/11 = 2.82 they have a Ranking of 10 in the league
West Ham Lower down had 9 shots on target and only scored 1 goal they have a ranking of 1
Crystal Palace have had 12 shots on target and not scored Ranking them jt 19
If I were to reverse the ranking for G v S then Crystal Palace become jt 1st
I don't think Ranking G v S can give me much help But G v S may Man City score a Goal every 2.82 Shots on Target
Bournemouth score every 1.75 shots on target
Are Bournemouth more accurate than Man City? or Have they had Less opportunities?
I will need to study this one
Anyway the next column with the minus figures
This is the G VS rankings minus the Rankings for average games played This at first glance looked a little more promising as it appeared to show that Teams scoring goals had a high Rating. But Crystal Palace who have not scored get a rating of 6
S no G this is Shots on Target for Minus Goals For I need to think if this data is useful
If anyone can come up with any suggestions/Ideas they would be greatly appreciated
Just a thought whilst I was typing this
Perhaps I should be looking at Shots Against this could be an Indication of a strong defence and then perhaps Rank it with shots for that may give an indication of overall team Attack and Defence
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How did the Min Ranking work out in the leagues? >2.5
I am Currently logging (England Only) the team with the Highest Over 78 Premiership and Over 80 for the other 3 leagues to see if there is any pattern for <2.5.
I Log all my Pre-game data for future reference
So for last weeks games (1st week) I have below the selections for over 2.5 goals
Perf Home and Perf Away = the average of the ELO ratings the teams have these are ranked in the same way as over 2.5 rankings (Data is not currently used in over 2.5)
Rank GagH and GagA = Rankings for goals against Home and Away for the current Game
Lge Pos H and Lge Pos A + League Positions for current Game (Data is not currently used in over 2.5)
I have another sheet that saves ALL the Data by Game Week for "Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method"
At the end of the season I can then look back at historical results and maybe tweak the method for the next season
I believe data is key when trying to beat the book and doing something different from the rest is always a good thing.
I am currently playing about with shots on target compared to goals scored decent link below for English leagues
http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=basics_shotsontarget
and site for Shots on target for games played in Europe http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php
Keep playing about with the Ranking idea you may spot something that gives you a slight edge
I hope I have given you couple of tools and ideas to develop your own method I am always interested in other peoples methods as the majority of mine have been inspired by ideas taken from Punters Lounge so please keep posting
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Just be aware there are 2 championship games being played Friday although the are currently not selections for Over 2.5 goals depending on the results of those 2 games.Which should be added to your sheet once results are known It could change the currently selected selection
I will post the selections on Saturday morning. If you have downloaded and created your own sheets we can then see if we are selecting the same games
Ken
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35 minutes ago, Kentucky110 said:
@darksidersfk Hello I have added a couple of new sheets for you
Premiership with Rankings I have added the next games you will need to fill results in
Just check the notes on the sheet I think you will be able to follow No selections will be made for premiership this week as the teams need to have 4 or more games Home and Away
Championship with rankings you will need to add the next games in Fixtures and again in Rankings check the instructions on the ranking tab
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uivHQ_Neeu5a75UW7-NlMI5RYkaMhqexA9BQpuGQcV4/edit?usp=sharing
If you have any questions then ask. I should be around for the next few hours
Couple of things to consider If there are less than 75% of games played (Bad weather Ect) then I don't bet.
if games are played over a few days say Sat Sun then After entering Sat results the ranking table may throw up another bet
I do back these. The data you enter MUST be correct as the sheet only produces the league table if correctly if you enter the data correctly. Bit like cutting a piece of wood measure twice cut once then measure again
Regards
Ken
Whoops here's me saying measure twice cut once the link for Championship had an error I Have corrected sheet
Please re-download
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19 hours ago, darksidersfk said:
For me the only problem is after the the league table is all good I can't make the calculations, cause in the Ranking sheet u use a lot of formulas and Vlookup, I don't want to mess around with that. The thing is after I do everything in the League table excel I can copy that table to the Ranking excel ? This is possible without any trouble or errors ? But its easy just use the Ranking excel and create multiple ones for different leagues... I think its the best way
BTW where did u get the games data ? I always get my information from footballdata, just need to change the name of some teams to match each other, I think its easy and faster.
@darksidersfk Hello I have added a couple of new sheets for you
Premiership with Rankings I have added the next games you will need to fill results in
Just check the notes on the sheet I think you will be able to follow No selections will be made for premiership this week as the teams need to have 4 or more games Home and Away
Championship with rankings you will need to add the next games in Fixtures and again in Rankings check the instructions on the ranking tab
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uivHQ_Neeu5a75UW7-NlMI5RYkaMhqexA9BQpuGQcV4/edit?usp=sharing
If you have any questions then ask. I should be around for the next few hours
Couple of things to consider If there are less than 75% of games played (Bad weather Ect) then I don't bet.
if games are played over a few days say Sat Sun then After entering Sat results the ranking table may throw up another bet
I do back these. The data you enter MUST be correct as the sheet only produces the league table if correctly if you enter the data correctly. Bit like cutting a piece of wood measure twice cut once then measure again
Regards
Ken
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22 minutes ago, darksidersfk said:
This is actually a very nice and well made mate. Thanks a lot
One question about this sheet... In this excel sheet there is no ranking system like in the other RANKING sheet. I thought this were merged but I think not. So I will have to do those calculations from the RANKING sheet correct?
If that is the case for me I think it will be easier just to paste copy on that excel (RANKING) a new league since everything is automatically.Correct me if I'm wrong
Should be fairly easy to add the Rankings and add the other 3 leagues. (Or any league that you may want to)
May be easier to have separate sheets for each league
much better to have Live data as you can see from last weeks Friday game once Wigans result was entered it then gave another bet in the league ( which won)
Giving a total of 3 wins from the 4 selections
If you are struggling with setting the league sheet up then let me know . Then if I get chance later in the week I will try and sort something out.
Regards
Ken
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23 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:
For anyone who downloaded the RANKING sheet
if you change the Home and away tables Wigan Games Played now 5 and GF now 9 also change Bristol City Games Played now 5 and GA now 7 this reflects the results of last nights game and there is now a second selection in the championship based on the new table
Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds
I have now added a League Table Spreadsheet to Google sheets
You need to enter results manually (Team name must be exactly the same as setup)
You should be able to create your own leagues from the sheet
If you have any questions then please feel free to ask
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cNBQnCAnacJ9gTGHzkgHMbO3uDi4Q_TzLIl1pF1Z0eI/edit?usp=sharing
Note the original sheet was from Excel Templates all free to download and a great source of Information for creating formulas
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For anyone who downloaded the RANKING sheet
if you change the Home and away tables Wigan Games Played now 5 and GF now 9 also change Bristol City Games Played now 5 and GA now 7 this reflects the results of last nights game and there is now a second selection in the championship based on the new table
Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds
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28 minutes ago, svc1796 said:
Got it now. One more question, when exactly you decide to bet? Good attacking team vs Bad defending team is obvious, but when you have two good attacking teams with good defence, two bad defending teams with low goals scored? Explain this please
@svc1796 I bet purely on the numbers providing they meet the criteria explained in earlier posts
My selection method picks 1 game per league
Tonight's game Wigan v Bristol City appears to be both good attacking teams based on the number of goals scored by each team but they have both conceded less than they scored does that make them both good defensive teams? I think you can over complicate things by delving too deep.
But saying that I will be saving all games in a database for future analysis and until I have at least 1 seasons data I am unable to make a comment. We can only wait and see how thing develop
I might add that I get as much pleasure out of developing the Ideas as I do from backing the selections and I am not doing this to get rich quick only to win more than I put on
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1 hour ago, darksidersfk said:
I don't have anything for you to send the email, how can I send u my email?
Can't u upload the file to google sheets or something ?
OK I think I have done it The sheet is called RANKING
let me know if you can get it
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14 minutes ago, note3user said:
File sent
If you have any questions then please post on here it may help other forum users
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4 minutes ago, svc1796 said:
Hi. Why do you have GAH (Goals against home) column if you don't use it?
There are a number of columns on that part of the sheet that are not used e.g perf ratings and league positions but the ranking for
But these are used in other parts of my Calculations for various bets
Goals against is used as explained in an earlier post
I am only trying to explain one of my methods ( Over 2.5 Goals) and this is the first complete season I will be giving it a go
I will be recording the HIGHEST rating for this season to see if it may Indicate Under 2.5 goals
but will have to wait a full season to see what the data produces
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As promised below are the 3 qualifying leagues for this week with selection Highlighted yellow Wigan play tonight
The lower the Rating = the higher number of goals scored
EXAMPLE
If you look at Reading Home Games
Goals for = 3 Goals Against = 7 Total 10 divide by games played 4 Gives an Average of 2.5 goals per home games played
some may consider the game for over 2.5 goals because Readings average is 2.5
But their average for goals scored a home 3 is only 0.75
Lets look at Hull away
Goals for = 5 Goals Against =7 Total 12 Divide by games played 4 gives average 3.00 goals per away game
Both teams Have good GAME averages
But the average for goals scored away is only 1.25
Does that explain it a little better?
The game with the LOWEST rating historically should in theory produce the most goals
I have just compiled a simple Excel sheet but I am unable to attach it (unless someone can tell me how)
@note3user@darksidersfkIf you can somehow send me your email Privately do not post on here I will send it to you it should give a starting point for you to create your own Tables
if you google Excel League Tables there are a number of good ones available for free
Lets see what what happens this week
Kentucky
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2 hours ago, note3user said:
Hi Kentuckey110 looks like a little good system
2 questions where you get the data from also do you have excel sheet to share please
Hi There
The Home Away tables are generated by excel But you do have to record all results yourself
a simple way would be to copy and paste the home and away tables from one of the many sites on line and then
do lookups for Goals and rankings.
if you need any help with formulas then I would be only to happy to help
I will Saturday Morning post the selection for the weekend as Championship, League 1 and League 2 have played the qualifying number of Games
I will post in the below format (Highlighted in Yellow would be the selection)
Regards
Kentucky
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9 hours ago, Zemside said:
Kentuckey110---Good to have as a guide,sure one can find some value bets too.Did you play this last season and how did it go?
I only played about with this method at the back end of Last season and only did single bets.I did notice that a number of times
all 4 were over 2.5 and and quite a few Times I had would have had trebles up giving a small profit.
Overall I did make a small profit but this season I will be giving it a go
Rules are Home Teams MUST have played 4 home games Away teams MUST have Played away games
if there is a selection in each league then the bet will be 4 trebles and one 4 timer (Hills do a bet boost on trebles and above)
if only 3 selections then 3 doubles and a Treble
if only 2 selections then 1 double
Staking is 5 pts
so 4 Selections = 4 trebles and a 4 timer 1pt on each
3 selections = 3 doubles and a treble 1.5 pts on the doubles and 0.5pt on the treble
2 selections only then 2 x 2.5pts win singles
I will if anyone is interested post the selections. But it is quite simple to set up in Excel
Regards
Kentucky
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Hello All
below is the method I use for selecting Over 2.5 goals
Most punters look at average goals per game and if the game average is over 2.5 for both home and away teams then it ma be considered as a selection
My approach is similar but I rank the teams (see below snip from Excel)
the below table (League 1) shows Avg.H Goals This is the average for goals scored in game for Home Team Home matches only
so for example (Home games only) Portsmouth Goals for 9 Goals against 2 total =11 divide by number of home games played 4 gives 2.75 The ranking for Portsmouth (Rank G.H) is 9
Portsmouth Goals for home (Avg.GFH) is 2.25 with a ranking of 1
I add the 2 ranking figures together Portsmouth = 10
I do the same for the away Team so for Wycombe Rank Goals Away (Rank G.A)=3 Rank Goals for Away (Rank GFA)=12 add them together giving a total of 15 for Wycombe
I then add the I then add the home ranking to the away ranking Total 25 for this game
The same is done for All Games in League ( see Lower snip from Excel)
How do I select from this? ( These games are for League 1 Sat 22nd)
I only bet if the home team has played 4 or more games at home and the away team has played 4 or more games away
I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)
I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals
My selection for Sat League 1 is Gillingham v Peterbrough over 2.5 goals
I do this for 4 leagues normally Premiership,Championship,League 1 and league 2
and My bet is 4 trebles and a 4 timer
Its quite simple to set up in Excel if you want to try
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Looks Like Bundesliga may be another and Caen V Lyon seems low
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Just looking at Yesterdays performance ratings and they seem very Low
has anything changed?
Thanks
Ken
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3 hours ago, keef75 said:
That's not a bad idea, I might add another option so we can choose average or median.
I'd love to see your system in action, it looks good.
I will let you know how things go as the season progresses
Patience my friend
I have just managed to get the database to save the pre-game data in a format I can easily re-use (hoping this will be useful in the future) as the data is currently saved once the result is known. This should save a lot of time when back checking results.
You will find with your System /Selection method that it will be constantly changing. I have updated mine numerous times usually based on something that I have read on PL as stated before I have been playing about with the database since 2016/17 season and find new ideas constantly some I implement others just get noted and saved for use later.
I am self taught with VBA and find better and quicker ways to write the code on a weekly basis all from the internet
personally I am only looking for 3 or 4 selections a week although the database throws up on average 15 - 20 per week the trick is finding the ones to select I am currently working on compiling my own odds based on my ratings hoping this will give me an edge in selecting value though I am sure the bookies don't make many mistakes and their programmers are far better than me
I would just like to say Punters Lounge is the best source of Ideas I have come across keep up the good work
Regards
Ken
- Rivilearner and keef75
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5 hours ago, Rivilearner said:
which software are you using
Its Excel Using user forms and VBA
Regards
Ken
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@keef75 Hi there The seasons have just started so no selections as yet will probably be starting mid September. As I only started creating the data a couple of seasons ago (2016/2017) refined the selection process during 2017/2018 the results looked very promising and the 25 or 30 bets made at the tail end of last season resulted in a profit.This encouraged me to to refine the selection process a little more ( as I had more data to research) I am looking forward to this season There is a lot more to the selection process than just goals scored as I also give each game a rating based on the result goals scored and the position of the team in the league. The ratings are based on the ELO ratings provide by PL
screen shot below
Have you considered using median rather than average when calculating goals over/under this I believe give another angle and removes those freak scores.
Regards
Ken
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Hi All
Just for info when I am doing my over under calculations described above the reason I choose the top 3 per league and then select the Highest price is:-
Lets say Man City have a run of consecutive games like Yesterdays 6-1 win at Huddersfield ( i think you will agree that Man City will be above Huddersfield all they way so the goals would be used at some point) you can be sure the over 2.5 goals odds would be prohibitive as I believe Bookies also look at these trends
so by Taking the Highest price from my top 3 per league I will hopefully eliminate the freak runs that occur
By the way I only keep data for 8 leagues 4 English 4 European More than enough work and I commend you on the number of leagues you are keeping data for
My data sheet also calculates the home and away tables based on the days results
so for example when I update the results on a Saturday the Tables are correct for Sundays Games ( results are entered on a daily basis)
I have found this way to be more accurate than importing/Copying tables on a weekly basis although its a little time consuming
and the team names don't need changing
Keep up the good work I follow in anticipition
Regards
Ken
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Hi All
When considering BTTS or Over/Under probabilities
I have my own solution to the above scenarios If you were to go down the route of using the Last 6 games then there could be the possibility of Team A playing a weaker Team B. resulting in a false prediction
When I make my calculations I only use games where Team A is Higher in the Home Table than the Away team and and Vice Versa where Team B is Higher than the Away team also I only make selections After Both teams have played 6 Home and 6 Away games and I do not include the first 4 Games. Better predictions are achieved after 8 games have been played
I then Add up the Total HOME goals for Team A and divide by number of qualifying games then do the same for Team B AWAY Games add these two figures together and divide by 2 giving me the average
example HOME TEAM (bold Position = game to use)
Home Team Position Away Team Position Result 2-1 6 9 1-1 5 4 3-1 5 11 0-2 4 2 2-1 6 8 2-1 5 12 from the above last 6 games for Team A (home) I would use
2+3+2+2 /4 = 2.25
example AWAY TEAM (bold Position = game to use)
Away Team Position Home Team Position Result 1-2 6 9 1-1 5 4 1-2 5 11 0-2 4 2 0-0 6 8 2-3 5 12 from the above last 6 games for Team B (away) I would use
2+2+0+3 /4 = 1.75
average =2.25+1.75 = 2
this is done for all the games to be played in a League
I then select the 3 Highest averages and from those I select the Highest price for over 2.5
if BOTH teams have a score greater than 1.5 then the game has a possibility of BTTS
a little complicated but easily done in excel I hope you can follow
I follow your Post with interest
Regards Ken
Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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2 from 3 Just keeping my head in front
Ma have done better with a pin![:\](https://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
lets see what Tuesday brings