Kentucky110
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Posts posted by Kentucky110
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@jazzman45If you want anything adding to the sheet then let me know league positions may be an indicator
Thanks for the update
Ken
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@jazzman45Have you managed to do any Back testing when just using Last 4 games?
Would be interested if you have come up with anything
Ken
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Hi All As promised is a list of the predictions. Prices were taken on Betfair either Exchange or Sportsbook if the bet was recorded on exchange then 5 ticks were removed from the available price to account for Commission. The P/L to date is 1.84 pts.
I am sure that by searching various bookies this could have been reduced nor have I checked but this will be done when the season ends
I will continue with the over 2.5 goal selections as I think there is a chance of a profit even though the last couple of weeks have been a bit disappointing. Plus there has been interest from other form users and I wouldn't like to disappoint them by giving up
Ken
- jazzman45 and thecurlyone1
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Today's over 2.5 Selections
Ratings include last nights result
If you have used the new over under link you should have the same Ratings as below these are not selections just testing
Possible away win Reading and over 2.5?
Ken
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@jazzman45 this is the new link
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gT8Iq0pm6aG4Dl72OMegONIfWSJHPbO2pcm5KqXTfl8/edit?usp=sharing
I had to put some helper columns in as when the sheet was picking the last 4 games it was picking the next game entered on the fixtures and results tab as the last game giving it a 0-0 result.
When you download you will have to remove the curly brackets {.....}again as described above sorry for any inconvenience caused
Last 4 games should give you below for Championship
Let me know if you need any help
Ken
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@jazzman45Hi there I have fund a mis calculation in the over under sheet for Last 4 games
Unable to fix it at the moment but will try and sort it out when I get back in later
it is giving incorrect Rankings for Last 4
Ken
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Hi All I have figured it out
Download the sheet as excel file open it go to Last 4 games tab Click into cell R5 in the formula bar you will see that Google sheets has converted the formula to an array. ie Curly Brackets around the formula {....}
Click the end of the formula and the curly brackets disappear Tab into the next cell S5 and repeat do this until the end of the row AJ5 and the row should now have numbers in copy R5 to AJ5 down to ROW 28 and that should fix the problem. Click save
if you now go to G2 on the Rankings tab enter "Y" press enter it should now work
any problems let me know
@jazzman45Hope this is what you were looking for
Ken
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@jazzman45 Hi There I have created a new sheet named Over Under this includes rankings for last 4 as requested
Follow link below
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18NpRwioKuyk8hkrI_envmVHbS-DA2D9yYOsZObZRvjI/edit?usp=sharing
I think you will have to download it as it appears that google sheets does not support the Aggregate function which I have had to use to get the last 4 Games data
Please down load it and let me know if its working to your satisfaction
To Rank Last 4 Games Enter "Y" into G2 on the rankings page I have included data for all current championship games plus the games to be played this weekend
Let me know if all is OK otherwise I will have to think of another way to get the last 4 games
Ken
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@jazzman45Hi There I see what you are saying and after I have compiled the sheet to take into account the under games I will have a look at seeing how much work is involved in creating a sheet that looks at the last 4 games it should be possible . I think you will find the Over/Under info quite interesting. as it looks at percentages for Home and Away games > 2.5 Home and Away games BTTS Home and Away wins > 2.5. ( it does not use the ranking method to make selections)and I have spotted some trends that will need investigating
Just a thought have you considered just entering the last 4 home games and last 4 away games in the fixtures and results tab.
League table would be wrong but the goals ranking would be correct for you. I would make a copy of your sheet before changing anything but you could test your theory.I would be interested in your findings.
I am going to stick with the current selection method until the end of the season as I am fairly confident that it works.
Hopefully I will have the over under sheet ready for Friday and will post the link when done.
Thank you for your kind words and ideas
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Well last set of games was a bit of a disaster but I will keep posting and recording
the under picks seem to be doing a bit better (sod's law as I am not backing them)
If there is enough interest I will modify one of the Google sheets to show the under selections also just let me know if you are interested.
No selections for tonight's remaining games so lets see what happens weekend
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Hi All
To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.
Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)
So 3 selections Lets see how they perform
Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)
Just the three two under 2.5 and one A-2.5
Will keep you updated.
Ken
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Hi Catania and mteam
The 4 Leagues displayed above are using the Shots on Target module But the over selections are calculated before this kicks in
You should have the same over selection as I have as tried to explain in my post
If you look at the Showing only 2.5 selections image then you should have the same ratings
Hope that explains things
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@Catania No the spreadsheets are still valid Selections for Over 2.5 goals has not changed
All I have included now is the shots on target module which will select H-2.5 A-2.5 and Under these are not being posted as selections and are only being recorded and watched If they are successful then they will be included I will then load new sheets if anyone want them
Regards
Ken
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The format of the displayed games is a little different now (see below)
Selections are ONLY the Over games ( Over 2.5 goals) as this is how the thread started and will continue
as you can see I have added A-2.5 ( Away win and over 2.5 goals in the game) H-2.5 (Home win and over 2.5 goals in the game)
Under has also been included ( under 2.5 goals) These are NOT being posted as selections still testing the data
Av. Shots Agst should be self explanatory and is not being used (Yet)
I will try and explain the highlighted Bets
All the games have been Rated using the Shots on Target module. Looking at the first Over Game Chelsea v Man Utd Over is highlighted in Blue This indicates that the average for BTTS to date is greater than the league average and that the average for games played to date over 2.5 is greater than the league average. so the Chelsea game and the Bury game both meet the criteria. The other 2 over games don't meet the criteria Eg Luton home games over 2.5 is 50% and Walsall is 50% giving an average of 50% and the League average is 53%
The observant amongst you may ask why has the module picked Luton v Walsall neither team is ranked Low 3 nor is it the Lowest Master (lowest Ranking highlighted in magenta) The screen shots are using the shots on target module whereas the Over selections do not. The module selects the Over bets first then adds the Shots on target data Below is screen shot league one NOT using shots on Target
As you can see Ratings and Master are are different
Under picks ( NOT selections) are calculated in the same way eg Stevenage over 2.5 33% (which means under games are 67%) Crewe over 2.5 33% average for both teams Under 2.5 is 67% League average is 55% for BTTS Stevenage games is 33% Crewe is 17% League average 51% Both teams under the League average ( I Hope you are following this and you have not fallen asleep)
H-2.5 and A-2.5 are using the shots module and the reason Peterborough is highlighted is because it meets the same criteria for goals as described in the Over selections.
So this week we have 4 Over SELECTIONS ( I will be reporting back on all the selections i have posted once we have reached 25 bets Profit or Loss to level stakes using available betfair odds)
Under selections just watching and recording (are highlighted ones better than the others?)
H-2.5 and A-2.5 again just watching and recording ( been very good so far or is that a kiss of death)
Lets see what this week brings
Remember tonight's game once recorded may change Championship selections and early kickoff Saturday may change Premiership selections if they do I will re post
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Well Saturday was a bit of a washout 2 Losers ( Exeter had a goal disallowed in 2nd Half)
But Newport Came up trumps ( Not a selection just watching and gathering data)
Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at historical Data and back testing some theory's I have now built into the module Over 2.5 which I will keep posting as selections Plus Home win over 2.5 goals and Away win plus over 2.5 goals I have also added Under 2.5 goals. The other selections are for watching only!. Included in the table will be 2 extra columns Average Shots Against Home and Away (data not currently used)
Lets see what weekend brings as we are now including Premiership games now they have played 4 home and away
(Excluding Tottenham and Watford Games only 3)
- anaradovic and jazzman45
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Only 2 Leagues today Over 2.5 selections highlighted in red
Below are the same games with the Shots on Target module added I am not posting these as selections still just watching and gathering data.
Same Selection for League 1
Possible over 3.5?
2 Selections for League 2 ( Not seen this scenario before) will need more data before making any changes to the selection process as I only like to have 1 selection per League
The game I am interested in is Newport v Stevenage (possible Newport to win and over 2.5)
Let see what happens this week
Ken
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Hi All
Here are tomorrows ratings
The Shots on Target Ratings select the same teams and all 3 games The Home and the Away team are both in the bottom 3 Rankings Lets see what tomorrow brings (possible over 3.5)
so Far in the Over 2.5 Goals we have had 8 from 10 Selections
The Shots on Target games have ALL been over 3.5 ( Still watching this they are not selections!)
The Shots on Target games where one of the teams was in the lowest 3 rankings(highlighted) but the other was not has resulted in 3 games so far the lowest ranked team has won and games have been over 2.5 Not enough data to draw any conclusions yet and I am still watching
Ken
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On 26/09/2018 at 11:09 PM, darksidersfk said:
I tested this system this last 2 to 3 days between a few leagues (not only england) and this are the results.
Hope you guys understand the meanings. y= yes ; n=no ; <=5 = Lessor equal than five ranking ; 5~10= Between 5 and 10 ranking and so on...
All of this was hand made in excel, basically I copied the games ranks for each day and after the result i just put "y" or "n" for over 2.5 just to get an overview where this hits more and not. Dunno if this was the best way to present the results but I thought doing it. Maybe with a few tweaks this can hit more i guess... Between 30 and 50 we got 18 games with over 2.5 and only 11 with under 2.5. Below 10 there was only 2 games with this ranking in total of 64 and they both were over 2,5.
Feel free to comment
@darksidersfkHow are you doing with your Rankings?
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Tonight's Game Ratings
Sheff Utd v West Brom is the selection
Shots on Target Ratings (NOT a selection Just watching)
Same game both teams with low ratings
Last nights results 2 games Both over 2.5
The 2 shots on target games Both over 3.5 but again the interesting one Scnuthorpe win and over 2.5
I will keep recording the Shots on Target model
Regards
Ken
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We have a couple of games for tomorrow
Teams highlighted in red are the Over 2.5 selections
Just for info I have the games that use the shots on Target Model these are NOT selections but just seeing how they perform
Looking to see if this is Scnuthorpe win and Over 2.5
Same selection as above Just different Ratings
Will post Weds selection in Championship after Tuesdays results have been added
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I have copied this to here
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Just updating my data and the below performance must be wrong
Can you please check your ratings
Thanks
Ken
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Hi all after doing a bit more research regarding shots on target I came across the below very interesting link
https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com/2013/1/11/3857360/analysis-shots-vs-shots-on-target
After doing a little studying I decided to build my take of this idea into my model and the 3 games it gave me were
Note These are not being posted as selections as the model was made AFTER the result was known
result 2-3
result 1-3
result 3-1
What I find interesting is not that all 3 were over 2.5 goals nor that they were all over 3.5 goals
What jumped out at me was the two games that had the lower rating in red
Quote from earlier post
"I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)"
Barnsley won (lower rating)
Crawley Town won (lower rating)
Preston v West Brom Both had low ratings
Is there an opportunity here to perhaps Back Win and over 2.5 goals ?
I will be keeping a close eye on this one and will keep you updated
Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Hi All Today's Over 2.5 selections below ( Championship you should have entered Last nights result if using your own sheet)
Note Home Away columns showing league position Home/Away games (not used in calculations)
Remember to Update results after early Kick off's it may generate another selection. If it does then I will post
I am off for a break next week if I get chance I will post selections but they may be late
Under 2.5 below these are not selections just for info
Ken