At home for the racing all week, actually going on Friday, so Lucky 15 to hopefully get some money back.
1.30 Dark Raven 28/1 4 places at B365 (hopefully softer going will be a plus won’t be far away from Inthepocket which was my choice for the Bally)
2.50 Nassalam 9/1 6 places (Soft ground going for the step up to bring improvement, some Cheltenham form)
4.50 Risk Belle 12/1 6 places (Lottery I think something will be well in somewhere question of finding it, run in high company)
5.30 Tenzing 9/1 in the last race again soft going and distance get see the fav being beat but got to try
Thank you all for following the thread this year and hopefully it has been of help. This race rarely gets talked about in all the various podcasts and blogs on Cheltenham so my aim is to fill that gap.
This year if you have enjoyed the preview and found it helpful then I am looking to raise some money to a charity close to my family's heart. As some will be aware my youngest son was born with what is still an undiagnosed illness and has various disabilities. Every Thursday he goes to a charity called Small Steps who work with children aged birth to 5 years who have cerebral palsy or other forms of motor impairment, syndromes or sensory impairment to help with their development and my son has benefitted a lot from the services that they provide. They need to raise £400,000 each year to survive. Obviously there is no pressure at all to donate, but if you can spare a bit of cash then it would be great if I help them raise some money towards their total.
The link to donate is https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate
As always this is a lengthy preview and clocks in at just over 4500 words. There is some great value on offer on my selections and all bookies are going 4 places as well which is great to see.
Billaway - A horse that even non hunter chase experts will know well given how long he has been around, and this will be his 4th run in the race having finished 2nd twice and then finally winning last year when just getting up in the nick of time to beat Winged Leader. He was clearly helped by the fact Winged Leader and Mighty Stowaway got racing from someway out because he got badly outpaced having made a bad mistake at the 18th. We know he is likely to hit a flat spot and chances are he will put in a bad error as well because he usually does. I thought he did well to win at Punchestown in front of Vaucelet as I have a feeling he might have won anyway despite the error at the last from the 2nd. This season on debut he was stuffed by Ferns Lock but given how good he looks and the fact he always comes on for his first run it was no real surprise. He then made hard work of beating Le Malin at Naas, but Patrick said that he was always going to win and if anything, he is just getting even lazier. He is probably still at the same sort of level that he has been in previous years which clearly makes him a player, but the concern has to be his laziness, and will things pan out as kindly for him as they did last year? I can understand why people think he is a solid e/w bet at the prices as he is clearly one of the best horses in the race, but I'm just not sure he will be able to double up. His jockey has got his way and he wares blinkers which I think will help him.
Black Op - Got up into the 150s over hurdles (2nd in the 2018 Ballymore and won the Mersey Novices' Hurdle) and fences when trained by Tom George but had lost his way. He has done well for the switch to pointing though when twice last season by 25L margins each time and then won on his only start this season at Sheriff Hutton back in January. The time was good as he was 0.5s quicker than Dubai Quest on the same card despite carrying a stone more. Obvious unknown is how he will get on back under rules and back in a big field given he has only beaten 10 horses in those 3 pointing victories. If he copes with that though I can see him running a decent race.
Bob And Co - With David Maxwell injured at the moment Jamie Codd has been booked to ride, but when the final decs came through on Wednesday morning Codd was jocked up on The Storyteller and Alice Stevens was on Bob And Co. Clearly Alice doesn't have Codds experience, but she is a good jockey and is more than capable. It is obviously a step up from having the owner on top although it is worth remembering that Sean Bowen rode him in the race 2 years ago and he still unseated him. He was travelling well at the time though and he surely would have played some sort of part in the finish. After that he went on to beat Billaway by a nose in the Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown. Last season he only ran twice when finishing a solid enough 2nd in the Walrus at Haydock to Cousin Pascal and then when falling at the 9th in this race. He had gone to France to be trained but came back in January and has gone to Harry Derham, but it will be a tough ask to win this first time out at the age of 12 and the fact he has come to grief on both his runs in the race before also has to be a concern. I've tipped him up the last two years so he certainly had the ability, but there is a huge unknown about how much of that ability he still retains. I can't help thinking his best chance of winning this has past.
Brain Power - Was mainly seen over 2m when trained by Nicky Henderson and was 2nd in the 2018 Arkle and took the International Hurdle in December of that year. The furthers distant he ran over was when he went over to America for the Grand National which he won over 2m5f. Done much better this season though winning 4 times including at Tyrella last time in January. He beat Samurai Cracker in that contest, and he hasn't exactly done much for the form as he has been beaten twice since and he was 21L behind Vaucelet at Down Royal. The trip is obviously a concern and his form suggests he wont be good enough to win this.
Cat Tiger - Maxwell doesn't usually run two in a race, but it seems Cat Tiger is also set to take his chance as Paul Nicholls said in the Racing Post that Charlie Sprake has been booked for the ride. He also said he thought he was his best e/w chance of the week. He has been placed in the last two running's of the Aintree Foxhunters' having been 3rd in 2021 and 2nd last year. He's only been seen once this season when a well beaten 5th at Ascot back in November. He's never really struck me as a possible Cheltenham winner, and he was a well beaten 12th in the Kim Muir over course and distance a year ago. I'd imagine Aintree will be the bigger target for him. He struggled a bit when first going pointing last season and he didn't win until his 4th start.
Chris's Dream - A former Troytown winner back in 2019 and finished 10th in that seasons Cheltenham Gold Cup. His last good run under rules though was when he was beaten a neck by The Storyteller in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal in October the following season. He only ran a further 5 times under rules after that which include pulling up in the Ryanair and unseating in the Grand National. He has found his form again pointing though winning both races so far in November and January. Both look decent enough runs, but he still seems on the short side in the betting on the back of them and horses with his sort of profile don't seem to win this race anymore.
Dandy Dan - Ran well in defeat to start with in points last season, before winning a couple of small field Opens very easily. He then went to Cheltenham for the big race on hunter chase night and impressed me by beating the very good Caryto Des Brosses by 6.5L. He then went to Stratford, and I thought his jockey's inexperienced went against him in that contest when she got caught out, but he still finished a very solid 3rd just 10.5L behind Vaucelet. He's had 1 run this season when he was 3rd behind Law Of Gold at Garthorpe recently but looked in need of the run that day so I expect him to improve on that effort. Given we know he handles course and distance that is a big thing in his favour and very interestingly James King has been booked for the ride. I don't blame connections at all for going with him over his regular jockey. He wouldn't want the ground to be too soft though, but otherwise he does have place claims.
Dorking Cock - He landed the Down Royal Boxing Day Hunters Chase last season, but then only had two more starts and was beaten 59L by Billaway at Punchestown. He looked like winning the Down Royal contest for the second year running until Vaucelet came and nabbed him on the line. That is his only start so far this season and on those Down Royal runs he clearly has some sort of chance, but ultimately I would be surprised if he was good enough to win.
Famous Clermont - When this horse started out on his racing career in 2019 over in Ireland, he looked pretty ordinary as he showed little promise in 4 starts in points. He then moved over here and was unlucky not to win first time out as he stumbled at the last and unseated when in command. On his next start he hung left on the run in and through the race away. That wasn't the only time he showed his quirky tendencies and when he ran in a bumper at Wincanton in February 2021 he hung badly left round the home turn and ran out when still going well enough in 3rd place. After 3 bumper runs, he went back to Chris Barber and the team have done a hell of a job with him to get him to where he is today. Last season he was 2nd on his first start, but then won his next 3 which concluded with a very easy success at Exeter in his first hunter chase for which he recorded a RPR of 130. He then went off a 6/5 favourite for the Intermediate Final on Hunter Chase night here and quite frankly he looked to hate every second of it. He made mistakes and weakened pretty quickly from 2 out. Connections did wonder if he had stayed, but in all honestly, he never looked like winning and probably did well to get as deep into the race as he did. He did have another run after that when winning a point in easy style. This season he returned with a hugely impressive performance at Larkhill on New Years Day when winning with any amount in hand. Next up he went to Wincanton where he made some interesting attempts of getting over his fences at times, but then at other times he was electric. Anyway, he still won in a canter and was value for way more than the winning margin of 4L over Shantou Flyer. A couple of weeks later he went up to Haydock for the Walrus which is the biggest hunter chase pre-Cheltenham and his jumping was much better, and he couldn't have been any more impressive. The handicapper has him on a mark of 142 and Billaway was given a mark of 140 when winning this last year. It's quite incredible that no one appears to be talking about him because clearly on pure ability he is one of the best horses in the race, and in my view, he is the best horse in the race. I'd be very confident about his chances, but you have to have his run here in April at the back of your mind. He is certainly a better horse now, but it was a horrid effort and if it is Cheltenham that is the issue then he clearly won't be winning this. Hopefully though that isn't the case and Will can get him into a nice rhythm. Chances are he will make at least one poor jump, but at the same time he can put in some great leaps, and he made good progress from Wincanton to Haydock on that front. I'd have him as joint favourite with Vaucelet so it is clear where the value is.
Go Go Geronimo - Ran a hell of a race to only be beaten a neck by Latenightfumble in the Intermediate Final at the hunter chase night here in April. He helped to set a fairly strong gallop that night, so he clearly stays well and handles the track. He went onto finish 2nd in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford which was another good effort. This season he has run and won two points at Alnwick, but the fact he was 2/5 and 4/9 are accurate to how much better he was than his rivals. This is by far his toughest test yet and I see him running a nice race, but not being good enough to hit the frame. His trainer Kelly Morgan does have previous in this race though having trained Top Wood to finish 2nd and 3rd.
I K Brunel - Was a decent horse for Olly Murphy and has won both starts for his new yard. Initially I don't think the form of his Larkhill win was that strong but given what he did at Taunton my suspicion is he was a good horse in a weakish contest in comparison to this race. I was impressed with his win at Taunton where Izzie Marshall gave him a very good ride. His jumping was very impressive and whilst Not That Fuisse didn't get the run of the race in 2nd, he still might have won. I can see him running a nice race.
Its On The Line - Won a maiden hunter chase at Cork and a novice hunter chase at Tipperary last season where his jumping wasn't always the best. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet and he was very disappointing running no sort of race. This season he was just beaten by The Storyteller in October, then was beaten 12L by Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse although he was carrying 5lbs more so in hindsight he had no chance that day. He was run in 3 points since finishing 3rd behind The Storyteller again and then winning twice beating Lord Schnitzel both times. His trainer sounds quite bullish about his chances, but I struggle to see it myself as no piece of form would make him good enough to win this and he looks under priced to me.
Le Malin - Only had 10 races having started life in France. Unless the Racing Post database is wrong, he didn't run from June 2019 until last October where he finished a 1L 3rd behind Vaucelet at Portrush. I suspect he was flattered a bit by his proximity that day though. He has also been 2nd to Winged Leader in a point in January and then was 2nd to Billaway at Naas before winning back in a point by 11L. Given Billaway should improve plenty for that Naas run and he always looked like he would get back up to win I can't have him reversing that form or the form with Vaucelet. However, given he has finished close to them you have to think he might be capable of running a decent enough race.
Might Stowaway - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd in this last year and probably set the race up for Billaway given he and Winged Leader were in a battle from a fair way out. He was then sold and is now trained by Alan Hill, but he has been very disappointing in both starts. First of all, he pulled up on hunter chase night behind Dandy Dan and then on his one start this season he was well beaten in a point at Horseheath. I know some will be backing him based on last year's 3rd, but he doesn't look the same horse now and I would be surprised if we saw a repeat here.
Moratorium - A solid enough horse for Myles Osbourne and he should be able to give him a nice spin round, but he was beaten in a weakish hunter chase here on hunter chase night and was 2nd at Wetherby behind Not That Fuisse this season. He did win at Alnwick last time, but deserves to be a big price for this.
Myth Buster - Was pulled up behind I K Brunel on his seasonal return, but made Premier Magic pull out all the stops on his next start at Chaddesley Corbett. He then fell at Cocklebarrow before winning as he liked over 4m at Kingston Blount. Was outclassed at Aintree last year and likely to be a similar story here.
Not That Fuisse - Won the hunter chase at Fakenham on the same day as this race last year and followed up with two more hunter chase wins at Warwick and Fakenham before finishing 4th 26L behind Vaucelet at Stratford. Young Heidi Palin took over the ride this season and she gave him a good ride to beat Moratorium at Wetherby, but she got caught out at Taunton when a staying on 2nd to I K Brunel. He used to want a shorter trip, but I think 3m is what he needs now although I'm not sure 3m2f round Cheltenham is what he wants. Jack Andrews is meant to be taking over in the saddle.
Premier Magic - A surprising entry as his trainer has said he wouldn't go for this race again after hating things in the contest a year ago. To be fair he still looks in peak form based on his wins this season as he was given a lot of weight away to Myth Buster when winning at Chaddesley Corbett and then easily beat Law Of Gold at Garthorpe last month by 14L. He does have the ability to run well, but given how much he hated it last year he's hard to actually want to back him.
Rocky's Howya - He had shown very little under rules over hurdles and 3 starts over fences and was only rated 106 when he last ran in a handicap in October 2021. He then had a year off and started back in a maiden point which he won by 18L. He then won a Winner Of 3 bizarrely before winning a Winner Of 2. On his first run in Open company, he beat Le Feline by 24L at Aghabullogue in January and she had won her 3 starts prior to that race and won on her following start. If that wasn't impressive enough his next start was even better. He needed to qualify for Cheltenham, and he went to Tallow last month and hammered Chatham Street Lad by 45L in a quick time. Chatham Street Lad was being talked about as a possible runner in this race when he won an Open on his previous start and he was rated as high as 156 in his prime. The 3rd horse was Woodbrook Boy, and he won on his next start. His form just looks so red hot. Obviously we don't know if he can replicate the huge improvement he has shown in points back under rules and there would be a small concern over the trip, but if he can run to his pointing form then he is a huge player for me in this.
Secret Investor - Another former top-class chaser who landed the 2021 Denman Chase at Newbury beaten Clan Des Obeaux. He clearly isn't at that level now and whilst he has won two hunter chases at Bangor and Kelso with ease the bare form is not strong. Dieu Vivant is a horse who is always easy to beat, and Sir Jack Yeats is nowhere near the horse he used to be. No doubt he will give Natalie a good spin round, but I would be a bit disappointed if he turned out to be good enough to win. The other key thing is Paul Nicholls doesn't even seem that bullish about his chances and seemingly prefers the claims of Cat Tiger.
Shantou Flyer - Did well to beat Aintree winner Latenightpass at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, but he was out in his place by Famous Clermont at Wincanton on his next start. Earlier this month he ran at Charlton Horethorne, but he stumbled on the bend and unseated Olive. He does have a superb record at Cheltenham including finishing 2nd to Hazel Hill in this in 2019 and is sure to give Olive a great spin round, but it is hard to see him finishing in the 1st 4.
The Storyteller - A Grade 1 winning chaser in the past and got into the 160s ratings wise. No doubt people will trot out the old line of he could carry these at his best so must have a serious chance. Well as I have mentioned elsewhere, horses with his profile just don't win this race anymore. Whilst I am sure a horse with his type of profile will pop up and win the race again at some point, who knows it could be this year, the percentage call is always to try and take them on. At the end of the day, they tend to be running in points and hunter chases for a reason and if he could still run to such a high level, he wouldn't be running in a hunter chase. He beat Its On The Line by a short head on his first point start in October and then won a couple more without ever looking anywhere near his best. He then was sent off favourite at Down Royal on Boxing Day and never ever looked like he was going to get involved in the business end of the race and finished 7th. He ran in a point at Punchestown last month and was also beaten there into 2nd place. Even at current odds he looks under priced to me although it was a big surprise to see Jamie Codd booked for the ride on Wednesday given he was set to ride Bob And Co who would appear to have a better chance. Maybe he was claimed for the ride, but maybe it suggests there is some confidence behind his chance. He still wouldn't be for me, but Codd riding is interesting.
Vaucelet - He has got some record since going to David Christie's yard as he has only been beaten 3 times and one of those was on his debut for the stable. The other twice was when he was 3rd at Down Royal last season and then when losing to Billaway at Punchestown. He followed that Punchestown effort by winning at Stratford which followed on from his John Corbet Cup win the previous year. He had to work quite hard to beat Law Of Gold, but that horse has a superb record at Stratford, so it is a strong piece of form. This season he returned in an Open at Portrush in October and made all to just beat Coastal Tiep. He then managed to go two places better at Down Royal than he did the previous year by staying on strongly to just get up late on to beat Dorking Cock. That was a bonus win because he isn't at his best on soft ground although I think the fact the race distance this year was 3m rather than 2m5f clearly helped as well. I saw a quote saying that the horse is best fresh, so they have not run him since then, but that isn't really backed up by the facts. Prior to his Punchestown 2nd he won at Fairyhouse over Easter and there was 13 days between those two efforts, and he had won a point at the end of March prior to those 2 runs. He's not run at Cheltenham before, but no reason why he won't handle the track and stays well. He can through in the odd mistake as he showed at Punchestown last year. Clearly, he is one of the best horses in the race and I know plenty of people can't see past him, so it is easy to see why he is such a short-priced favourite, but there is just no value in his price for me. I'd have preferred him to have had a more recent run, so whilst he is one of the likely winners, I think there are better bets in the race who just might be capable of beating him.
Wotzizname - Won a match at Newton Abbot in May and then was only beaten a neck back there a couple of weeks later. Neither of those runs good enough for this though and he has been well beaten in both starts this season.
Verdict - Usually at this stage the betting has a pretty solid look, and you know there will be little movement until the day of the race, but this year is different because Ferns Lock and Winged Leader will come out on Wednesday morning unless we get a massive surprise or Vaucelet gets an injury. Given they are currently 2nd and 3rd in the betting we are surely going to get some movement. First of all, I will say that David Christie is pretty ill in hospital at the moment so if Vaucelet does win then it would be great for him especially given how close he went last year. Vaucelet is no doubt going to be a very popular selection and clearly he has the ability to win this, but I don't think he is the best horse in the race ability wise and therefore he is too short in the market for me. I think Famous Clermont is a better horse than him and if he hadn't of run so badly over course and distance in April confidence would be very high. He is a better horse now though and he has already run to a rating which would see him win most renewals of this. Hopefully that run was just a blip, and he can show his true ability here. I have already put him up as a bet, but he is still value because he will surely be even shorter on Wednesday when the final decs come through.
Last year's winner Billaway needs to improve on what he has done so far this season, but he usually does and I can see why he will be popular, especially if he stays an e/w price and 4 places will be on offer after the final decs come through. Bob And Co certainly did have the ability to win this race in the past, but you are guessing if he still does. As I point out in the preview clearly the fact Codd is riding over his owner is a plus, but then it isn't the first time he has been without him in the race, so I don't think it is as big a thing as some will make out. If he was a double figure price I probably would have a small bet on him, but the fact he's been off for a year has to be a negative. One year I suspect one of the former top class horses will pop up and win, but the percentage call has to be to take on Chris's Dream, Secret Investor and The Storyteller, especially as none of them have the best form so far tis season coming into the race.
I know you have to take on trust that Rocky's Howya will show his improved form back under rules, but his pointing form is red hot and if he can run to that level it would not surprise me at all if he was good enough to win this. If he had run in a hunter chase this season and run to the level he had in points then he'd be at least half the price he currently is. Of the really big prices I think Dandy Dan has a chance if the ground isn't too soft. We know he handles course and distance and he wasn't seen to best advantage when just over 10L behind Vaucelet at Stratford. That effort clearly doesn't leave him with much to find and he will come on plenty for his seasonal return at Garthorpe. The fact James King takes over in the saddle is a huge plus for his chance as well and he has solid e/w claims.
Famous Clermont 1.5pts e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill (4 places and take up to 5/1 e/w and have 2pts win if between 9/2 and 7/2)
Rocky's Howya 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill and Betfred (4 places and take up to 7/1)
Dandy Dan 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (4 places and take up to 16/1)
Quiet day small Lucky15 for interest at Sandown
13.50 Off to a Flyer 16/1. 6 places. (Behind The Carpenter last race and 3rd to a couple of good ones previous)
14.25 Punctuation 18/1. 6 places. (4th in a good Cheltenham handicap form looks promising)
16.10 Make me a Believer 15/2 4 places (2 nd race after long lay off plenty of time to hopefully avoid a bounce)
16.45 Iconic Muddle 13/2 4 places ( form looks good but on the drift which for a G Moore horse is a bit of a worry)
Quiet day small Lucky15 for interest at Sandown
13.50 Off to a Flyer 16/1. 6 places. (Behind The Carpenter last race and 3rd to a couple of good ones previous)
14.25 Punctuation 18/1. 6 places. (4th in a good Cheltenham handicap form looks promising)
16.10 Make me a Believer 15/2 4 places (2 nd race after long lay off plenty of time to hopefully avoid a bounce)
16.45 Iconic Muddle 13/2 4 places ( form looks good but on the drift which for a G Moore horse is a bit of a worry)
Quiet day small Lucky15 for interest at Sandown
13.50 Off to a Flyer 16/1. 6 places. (Behind The Carpenter last race and 3rd to a couple of good ones previous)
14.25 Punctuation 18/1. 6 places. (4th in a good Cheltenham handicap form looks promising)
16.10 Make me a Believer 15/2 4 places (2 nd race after long lay off plenty of time to hopefully avoid a bounce)
16.45 Iconic Muddle 13/2 4 places ( form looks good but on the drift which for a G Moore horse is a bit of a worry)
Quiet day small Lucky15 for interest at Sandown
13.50 Off to a Flyer 16/1. 6 places. (Behind The Carpenter last race and 3rd to a couple of good ones previous)
14.25 Punctuation 18/1. 6 places. (4th in a good Cheltenham handicap form looks promising)
16.10 Make me a Believer 15/2 4 places (2 nd race after long lay off plenty of time to hopefully avoid a bounce)
16.45 Iconic Muddle 13/2 4 places ( form looks good but on the drift which for a G Moore horse is a bit of a worry)
I said yesterday's would be the last update, but then we got an update on Famous Clermont in the paper today.
Having read the pointing update in today's Racing Post it seems as if connections of Famous Clermont are now seriously considering Cheltenham again. Trainer is preferring Aintree, owners are now thinking Cheltenham as they might not get another chance and jockey is also coming round to the idea of Cheltenham. They are going to have a meeting on Monday to discuss it, but it seems at the very least he will get an entry. Whilst I still have my doubts about how he will cope with Cheltenham after last year, he is also the best horse in the race, in my opinion, so I think it is worth backing him now at 7/1 NRNB. Unless they get a change of mind with Ferns Lock he isn't going to go and I'm not sure Winged Leader will either so his price is only likely to get shorter. There are also a few that are around the 10/14-1 mark which aren't going to be running either. On pure ability I think he's a better horse than Vaucelet and if he can jump well enough and he copes mentally with the day then I think he will win.
Famous Clermont 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365 NRNB (take up to 5/1)
Also Bob And Co is now at Harry Derham's after he Tweeted a clip of him schooling this morning and he also confirmed he is going for this race.
Not been sighted at all so far and the young girl who rides him has only had one ride in points so far this season. What I did notice though when I searched for him on the pointing website is that he has no trainer listed at the moment. This is always a problem with this race though that until a horse appears you usually have no idea what has happened to it. Obviously still a chance he could appear somewhere before the entries close, but if he doesn't I wouldn't expect to see him in those entries.
First of all for the update this week is a horse I mentioned last month after he won a point and that is Rocky's Howya. He was 4/4 going into his run at Tallow on Sunday and needed to win the Open to qualify for Cheltenham. Well he didn't just win, he put in a devastating performance to beat Chatham Street Lad by 45L. The time was fast as well and for me it was a really impressive performance. Given the 2nd was being discussed as a possible for Cheltenham after he won last time and is as short as 12/1 for this race, if they decide to go to Cheltenham with the winner then he must have a chance. He looked very average as a hurdler previously and didn't show much in 3 starts over fences either so that would be a concern as would the trip, but he looks a different horse for the yard change and he clearly isn't a 106 horse anymore. He's not in the betting still, but connections are seriously thinking about a Cheltenham bid.
One UK trained runner I hadn't mentioned yet because I didn't consider him a contender is Go Go Geronimo who is set to be a runner in the race his trainer Kelly Morgan said after he won a couple of weeks ago at Alnwick. That was only an Intermediate and he was 2nd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last season so we know he handles the track. I really respect the trainer as well, but at this stage I struggle to see him being good enough to win this and I wouldn't have minded seeing him in stronger races than the two he has hacked up in so far this season. He's not in the betting either, but again he should be as he is an intended runner.
Secret Investor has got his 1st qualifying run under his belt this afternoon after winning at Bangor. On paper it is a run that would give him no chance at Cheltenham, but his jockey dictated the tempo from the front and only asked her mount to do enough to make sure the race was won and he had plenty up his sleeve. Having said that we still don't really know how much ability he retains and he's not a horse that would make my shortlist at this stage. He was actually pushed out in the betting for Cheltenham and is now 12/1 with William Hill. After the race connections have said he is likely to go to Taunton on the 21st in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. After that there is only one other race he can run in and that is at Fontwell on the following Sunday.
Halifax v Barnet
Oldham really didn't make it very hard for Halifax to win on Saturday as they managed just one shot in the entire game. Halifax still had to rely on a rebound from a penalty for the winning goal though and I still wouldn't have them as turning the corner. Barnet continued their impressive run of form by winning 3-1 at Scunthorpe on Friday night. That is a decent effort given the new owner and new manger will have really got the crowd going. I just don't understand how Barnet aren't clear favourites for this as they are certainly the better side and they are unbeaten in 10 league games. Indeed in their last 10 games they have recorded 26 points which is the same as Wrexham and Notts County. They have also sneaked into contention for 3rd place. Their average xG for the season is just 1.25 yet their average goals per games is 1.93. That ought to be unsustainable, but they have just been so clinical all season and crucially at the moment they aren't conceding goals either with just 4 scored against them in that run of 10 games.
Maidenhead v Southend
Fair play to the Southend players to still be getting as many points as they are given all the off the field issues and it seems like they haven't been paid for January yet. There is a real risk they could be forced out of business at the start of March as well. They won on Saturday, but they were playing a York side who also have issues of their own at the moment. Maidenhead look to be coming out of the other side of a bad run of form although they haven't always been playing that badly and at home they continue to be strong including giving Notts County a big scare. This is just the type of game that Maidenhead thrive in and whilst Southend should be favs I think there is value in the price about a home win.
Oldham v Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham weren't ones to trust away from home earlier in the season, but that has picked up since they beat Chesterfield away and actually at the moment you would have to say they have been better away than at home. They lost on Saturday 1-0 at Wealdstone, but they had so many chances that they really ought to have got at least a point. As I have mentioned above Oldham stunk the place out on Saturday and if they play like that again there is only going to be one winner. Dagenham are too big a price not to back here.
Taunton v Dulwich
One bet at Step 2 tonight comes in this game. Dulwich can't stop leaking goals and have conceded 18 in their last 6 and have lost five of those. Even in the game they won they conceded twice. Whenever I write about Dulwich I always mention the strange choice of manager and it really does seem his inexperience is showing at the moment. Taunton have only lost once at home all season and even managed to beat Havant last week in their first loss on their travels all season. Taunton surprisingly beat Eastbourne 3-0 on Saturday and if they continue in that form then they should be picking up another 3 points here.
Barnet 2pts @ 7/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4)
Maidenhead 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 9/4)
Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 11/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Ladbrokes (you can get bigger on Betfair exchange and with Coral take up to 7/4)
Taunton 2pts @ 13/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Ladbrokes (take up to Evs)
Irish Lucky 15 after yesterday’s 2 places, trying a couple of forgotten horses at big prices and 2 big field handicaps only for the daft.
1.40. Kilcruit. 14/1. 2 places
2.40 Vanillier 11/ 1 7 places
3.10 Pied Piper 50/1 2 places Bog
4.10 Whatsavailable 14/1 6 places
Irish Lucky 15 after yesterday’s 2 places, trying a couple of forgotten horses at big prices and 2 big field handicaps only for the daft.
1.40. Kilcruit. 14/1. 2 places
2.40 Vanillier 11/ 1 7 places
3.10 Pied Piper 50/1 2 places Bog
4.10 Whatsavailable 14/1 6 places
Irish Lucky 15 after yesterday’s 2 places, trying a couple of forgotten horses at big prices and 2 big field handicaps only for the daft.
1.40. Kilcruit. 14/1. 2 places
2.40 Vanillier 11/ 1 7 places
3.10 Pied Piper 50/1 2 places Bog
4.10 Whatsavailable 14/1 6 places
Need to watch out for the likely Mullins horse perhaps protecting a mark for a handicap or one being used as a pacemaker today with a view to a hold up run next time. Both probably at Cheltenham.
1.55 Gust of Wind. 10/1
2.30 Saint Rio. 17/2
3.40 Takarengo. 33/1. 6 places
4.10 Jody Ted 8/1. 5 places
Some great races with a view to Cheltenham, shame 1 trainer has to run 6, 5, 4, 4 runners in some races can’t be good long term for racing. Even if the racing should be ultra competitive.
The obvious place to start is the hunter chase at Thurles last Sunday as we saw a hugely impressive winner in Ferns Lock. In the very first post in this seasons blog I mentioned that he was highly unlikely to go to Cheltenham this season and despite the fact he would have a leading chance, his trainer has said he will not be going to The Festival this year. He was given a Racing Post Rating of 155 for the win and the only sort of rating that high that I can think of in this sphere in recent years would be Mossey Joe's when he bolted up in the Stratford Champion Foxhunter a few years ago. I think his trainer thinks he is better than Winged Leader and Vaucelet and I agree with him. I also think he is doing the right thing in not going to Cheltenham this year. It can be a tough race and Ferns Lock has never experienced anything like it so far. David Christie certainly seems to be of the Willie Mullins school of thinking in letting novices be novices. He is set to go to Gowran on the Saturday before Cheltenham next and I was thinking the John Corbet Cup would have been a good target for him at Stratford, but my reading of the conditions for the race is that he wouldn't actually be able to run in it because of his Fairyhouse win in November. I therefore wonder if he might use Stratford as a tester for Cheltenham and put in the big race. Some bookies did take him out of the market for this on Monday, but I guess he should be kept in as there is a month until entries close and people do change their minds. Clearly though you wouldn't want to be backing him at the moment. If he did go he would be favourite in my opinion. Two other things to note. First of all Ruby Walsh said on RacingTV that he looked like he would come on for the run (which is scary if he can put in a performance like that not fully fit) and 2nd his trainer said he would likely enter Ultimate Optimist as well as the other two at Cheltenham.
I'm surprised Billaway drifted out after his run because he basically put in the same sort of run he put in last season in this race when he was 2nd to Winged Leader. He has never won first time out and obviously he reversed the form come Cheltenham. He was slow at some fences and hit a flat spot, but Patrick wasn't over hard on him once he knew he couldn't win and I would be amazed if we didn't see a big improvement next time. Whilst I'm not biting myself I can see why 9/1 with Bet365 would appeal from an e/w perspective.
On Sunday 15th Chris's Dream qualified for Cheltenham with a comfortable victory at Carrigarostig. Of the ex Rules horses we have seen so far he would be the one that would interest me the most at the moment and he is now 9/1 with Bet365. As I always say though horses with his profile don't tend to do that well in this race anymore.
The horse who finished behind Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse was Its On The Line. He came over to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup last year and was fairly weak in the market and ran accordingly pulling up. This season as well as being behind Ferns Lock he was 2nd and 3rd in points behind The Storyteller. He appeared to take a massive step-up in performance though on the 15th when beating Lord Schnitzel by 7L at Turtulla. Derek O'Connor rode him that day and I would imagine it would be his ride at Cheltenham as well. He's an interesting one because until that win I wouldn't have given him a hope, but given his trainer I just wonder if he is bringing him to the boil nicely. Only 3 bookies have him in the betting and he is 16/1 with Unibet, but bookies should price him up as he is an intended runner at this stage. I'm also going to add he actually went off favourite against Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse.
Brain Power won again on Saturday afternoon and I will add more when I see some quotes.
In the UK the weather has got in the way of pointing and hunter chases, but Sheriff Hutton on January 15th took place and saw 2 Cheltenham contenders. Dubai Quest was 4th in the race last year and returned to land the Ladies Open in very comfortable fashion. I would imagine he will have another run before Cheltenham and whilst he does have a bit to find on the front 2 from last year he ought to still have improvement in him and the 33/1 price that he currently is seems a bit insulting given some of the horses in front of him in the betting.
In the Mens Open on the card former Tom George inmate Black Op made it 3/3 since going pointing. He had already qualified for Cheltenham after winning two opens last year in easy fashion and he clocked a faster time than Dubai Quest despite the fact he was carrying a stone more. He was a Grade 1 winning hurdler and was 2nd to Samcro in the Ballymore in 2018. He had lost his way under Rules, but the change of yard and going pointing has clearly worked with him as he still has plenty of ability. Only BetVictor and William Hill have him priced up and they both go 25/1 but if he was able to run to his pointing form at Cheltenham then he would have place claims.
Todays attempt with Lucky 15 all with Sky for the extra places
3.00 War. Grumpy Charlie (won for me last time) 5/1 5 places
3.35 War. Level neverending ( Low weight Elliot on fact finding) 9/1 3 places
2.40 Kemp Mark of Gold 22/1 7 places
3.50 Kemp Fransham 7/2 3 places
Todays attempt with Lucky 15 all with Sky for the extra places
3.00 War. Grumpy Charlie (won for me last time) 5/1 5 places
3.35 War. Level neverending ( Low weight Elliot on fact finding) 9/1 3 places
2.40 Kemp Mark of Gold 22/1 7 places
3.50 Kemp Fransham 7/2 3 places
Todays attempt with Lucky 15 all with Sky for the extra places
3.00 War. Grumpy Charlie (won for me last time) 5/1 5 places
3.35 War. Level neverending ( Low weight Elliot on fact finding) 9/1 3 places
2.40 Kemp Mark of Gold 22/1 7 places
3.50 Kemp Fransham 7/2 3 places
A brief update this week. Envious Editor won the first hunter chase of the season and has been put in the betting for Cheltenham, but Aintree is his target and although the trainer has surprised with entries in the past I would be surprised if he turned up here.
I have been told that Bob And Co is now being trained in France and whilst that doesn't rule him out of running in this you would think it unlikely.
Onto Ireland and a horse called Rocky's Howya made it 4/4 in points at the weekend. He didn't achieve a great deal over hurdles with a couple of 2nd places the best he managed. After a year off though he seems a different horse as he has gone through the grades and his win at Aghabullogue was his best yet. His trainer after the race said he wouldn't rule Cheltenham out although he still needs to qualify. He isn't currently in the betting, but he clearly should be given this has been given as a possible target.
Chatham Street Lad is a general 20/1 shot for Cheltenham after he won at Ballindenisk on New Years Day. He had been only 4th on his pointing debut the previous month at the same track which was his first run since the 2021 Betfair Chase. His trainer said he had come on a lot for that run and it showed as he won well. After the race though the trainer only mentioned about running him in points so no mention of Cheltenham at this stage. He also needs to qualify.
Alley Cat Glover got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat-Tuesday 14th March.(Cheltenham Day 1)
Alley Cat Glover got a reaction from The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th March
Alley Cat Glover got a reaction from kensland in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th March
Alley Cat Glover got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th March
Alley Cat Glover got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Saturday 11th March
Alley Cat Glover got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Racing chat -Saturday 14th Jan