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Racing Chat -Saturday 4th February


The Brigadier
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A bumper afternoon’s racing from our pals at ITV with ten races coming at us from Sandown, Musslebugh, Wetherby and the Irish Gold Cup from Leopardstown. The ground is mostly good to soft at all meetings with both Leopardstown and Sandown actually watering earlier in the week. Here’s my thoughts :-
 
Sandown 1.10
Today’s terrestrial coverage kicks off with a six runner novices’ handicap hurdle run over just short of 2m 4F. The only one of the sextet that holds any future Cheltenham novice hurdle entries is Milton Harris’s top weight and favourite here Twinjets. He’s looked a progressive sort in winning at Leicester and Plumpton this season to add to his two bumper wins and an Irish point to point victory. Harry Cobden has ridden him to both his hurdle victories and is again on board here. He’s the one to beat. The second favourite is Paul Nicholls’ Twin Power who actually finished runner up to Twinjets at Plumpton at the beginning of the month and re-opposes on 8lb better terms for a nine length beating. That should pull the pair closer together but Twinjets won quite cosily that day and can confirm the form. Five of the six are making their handicap debuts today and one who could have been let in lightly is Harry Fry’s Hot Rod Lincoln. His eight length Irish point to point win looks decent and although he pulled up at Hereford last time he could run well at a nice price if taking his earlier Chepstow 4th into account. He’s worth a small stakes bet.
 
HOT ROD LINCOLN 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365
 
Musselburgh 1.28
Six face the starter for this 2M 4F 68yds novices’ handicap chase. Bar the rank outsider Diamond State, each of the other five have claims of sorts. Irish raider Drumbear trained by John C McConnell won on his fencing debut at Limerick over Christmas and with the runner up winning since should go well today. Laura Morgan’s Notlongtillmay is two from two over the bigger obstacles having won a handicap at Wetherby and over course and distance going up a stone in the handicap. Bear Ghylls is on a bit of a recovery mission having bombed out last time when his trainer thought the race came to soon to his re-appearance run. A tough race but I’ll take the lightly raced top weight Drumbear to plunder the prize for Ireland. He will be ridden by 5lb conditional jockey Ben Harvey who’s already ridden 25 winners in his native country.
 
DRUMBEAR 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365
 
Sandown 1.45
The 1M 7F 99yds class 2 handicap chase is named after the three time winner of this eight runner contest Dolos. Paul Nicholl’s ten year old has won this three out of the last four years and was runner up in 2021. He still shows a decent level of ability and without doubt is the one they all have to beat today. A four length winner last year he’s now only 3lb higher in the handicap and can confirm that form with the runner up Frero Banbou who’s 5lb better off for last year’s defeat. Bottom weight Fast Buck maybe his biggest danger having won well at Lingfield last time but this can go to Dolos and he represents one of the better bets of the day under Harry Cobden who knows him so well.
 
DOLOS 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365
 
Musselburgh 2.03
A highly competitive renewal of the Edinburgh National Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 7F 108 yards. A decent sized field of thirteen have declared. Ben Pauling’s top weight Slipway looked a smart stayer when winning the Southern National at Fontwell back in November rising 7lb. He should relish this trip and run well with the longer trip likely to suit. Sandy Thomson runs three here with possibly Flower Of Scotland the best of the trio having won over this trip at Kelso in early December. His Doyen Breed has stamina to prove whilst The Ferry Master may not be up to this. Fergal O’Brien took the first prize last season with his Captain Cattistock in a less competitive contest but is unbeaten in two starts over this long trip of around four miles. If we can fancy him for this then surely the runner up from last year The Wolf must come into the equation. Trained by the very much in form Olly Murphy, who racked up his 50th winner of the season at Fakenham on Thursday, he went down by only 3/4L that day and can renew rivalry on 9lb better terms. That said he is quirky old thing but maybe the longer trip will bring out the best in him. Owned by the Macneill & Stone families and ridden by Paddy Brennan he’s worth chancing each way especially as he sports first time blinkers.
 
THE WOLF 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
 
Sandown 2.20
A small but select field of five line up for the class 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase run over 2M 4F. The race has been won by some smart novice chasers over the years and was won last year by L’Homme Presse. Gordon Elliott sends over Gerri Colombe from his County Meath base in Ireland and will be at short odds to take this. He’s unbeaten in seven (if counting his point to point win) career victories including two novice chases, the latest being in grade one company at Limerick. He could be anything and although he may prefer further he’s the one to beat. Jordan Gainford is over to ride him. Best of the British may be either Paul Nicholl’s Monmiral or Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock who met last time at Cheltenham in the Dipper Novices’ Chase on New Years Day when only a head split the pair. Nicky Henderson saddles Balco Coastal who put a poor chasing debut at Newbury behind him when bolting up at Kempton over Christmas in a handicap and as promising as he is will need to step up again. Not much of a price but I’ll stick with Gerri Colombe.
 
GERRI COLOMBE 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill
 
Wetherby 2.40
A small field of just four assemble for the 3M grade 2 Townton Novices’ Chase. Warm favourite here is the Dan Skelton trained eight year old Ballygrifincottage who made a sparkling chasing debut when running away with a class 2 three runner novices’ chase at Haydock back in November. It’s a bit concerning that he sports a first time tongue tie and although he’s the most likely winner at his current odds of around 4/6 I’m happy to take him on with Nicky Henderson’s City Chief who will be ridden by James Bowen. He impressed when winning a three runner novices’ handicap chase at Hereford last time and is a progressive sort who only has seven pounds to find on official ratings. O’Toole is the other one with a chance having won a handicap chase at Newcastle on his fencing debut.
 
CITY CHIEF 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill
 
Sandown 2.55
The feature race of the day at the Esher track is the 2M 7F 98 yds Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle which has attracted a field of 15 and has a very open look about it. Top weight Flight Deck was last seen winning at Chepstow over Christmas but has been put up 7lb for that win and has to give weight all round here. Last year’s winner Green Book is back to defend his title from a 4lb higher mark and ran too bad to be true (easy to back) on his seasonal re-appearance in the Flight Deck race at Chepstow. He’s not without a chance today. The one I like though has to be the David Pipe trained Remastered who I believe is being trained for the Grand National. He reverts back to hurdles following two excellent runs over the bigger obstacles when runner up in the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) and then taking a valuable handicap chase at Kempton over Christmas. That win was gained off of a chase handicap mark of 146 (he’s now on a mark of 152) but can race today off of a hurdles mark of 142, 4lb lower than his last win all be it over fences. Pipe has been amongst the winners this week and he looks a solid each way bet.
 
REMASTERED 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Leopardstown 3.05
Seven go to face the starter in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup run over 3M on softish ground (the track has been watering throughout the week). We have a very short priced favourite in one of four Willie Mullins trained runners in the Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs. He’s four from five over fences (would of won the other start when falling at last in the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival last March) and was an impressive winner on his re-appearance in the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown in December. He’s up against some rather exposed types now with the possible exception of his stable companion Stattler who was runner up on his re-appearance in the Savills New Years Day Chase on New Years Day. At the likely odds a no bet race but a contest to savour with the Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite in action.
 
Musselburgh 3.16
Ten have declared for the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle and I believe there’s a decent wager in this 1M 7F 124 yard class 2 contest. The Michael Scudamore trained eight year old Lebowski did us a favour when winning on his re-appearance at Wetherby and a 7lb rise may not be enough to stop him from scoring again. His under rated trainer thinks very highly of him. Paul Nicholls’ five year old mare Grivetana wasn’t suited by the tacky ground last time out at Newbury when bombing out and in her previous two efforts when runner up in decent Newbury handicaps should also run well whilst course winner Nayati trained by Donald McCain is another who should should be competitive but for me this is all about Lebowski.
 
LEWBOWSKI 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365
 
Sandown 3.30
The day’s terrestrial action concludes with a competitive 3M class 2 Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase which we has attracted a strong field of 14. Many have chances with the likes of recent Cheltenham winners Rapper and Eva’s Oskar holding claims despite rising 6lb and 3lb for their two respective victories. Gary Moore saddles two with his son Jamie on board of Larry who has a good record here of two wins from four starts.I’m more interested however in his other runner propping up the handicap in nine year old Movethechains who will be ridden by the stable’s conditional jockey Niall Houlihan who still can claim a valuable 3lb. He was a progressive chaser last year winning four handicap chases rising some 37lb in the weights. He re-appeared when finishing a well beaten 5th in the Welsh Grand National and with a that run under his belt could be thereabouts. Ben Pauling’s Bangers And Cash is the other one I want on my side. He’s looked good winning at Exeter and Market Rasen this season and remains at the right end of the handicap despite a 16lb rise in the weights. I’ll split my stake on Bangers And Cash and Movethechains.
 
BANGERS AND CASH 1 point win @ 6/1 bet365
MOVETHECHAINS 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
All odds quoted were available at time of writing.
 
 
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I've been enjoying the grandad system this week but it's flawed in 2 ways ...if there's a really easy winner lto in race the system will never pick it and it doesn't take into account race conditions so last race could be 5f soft ...today 7f good and it would still be a bet ....OK for a bit of fun but time to get back to making money 💰 holiday 2024 needs donations 🤣

255 sand 

Flight deck  8.5 15/2 

Dolphin Square   8.2  25/1 

Remastered   8.0 

Hard to know how good remastered will be over hurdles ...he's probably a better chaser ....I'll try the proven top 2 ....5pt ew both ....and forcasts top 3 

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Espion  De  Chenet                              4 10 Leop/          £25 ew   25/1     { 1/20th of a pt staked }

I Shut That Door                                   1 10 San/             1/20 th  of a pt win   7/1

Deep Cave                                            1 20 Leop/           £25 ew  25/1      { 1/20th of a pt staked}

Regina Dracones                                  2 03 Mus/           £25 ew  22/1      { 1/20h of a pt staked }

Frero Banbou                                        1 45 San/              1/20th  of a pt win  9/1 

Socialist agenda                                   3 16 Mus/            £25 ew  16/1        { 1/20th of a pt staked }

 

 

Good Time Jonny                                 4 10 Lep/  {SUNDAY}            1/20th of pt ew   18/1

 

 

P/L  +  158.15  pt

Edited by black rabbit
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The big betting race this Saturday is the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles 7 furlongs and 98 yards and is open to horses aged 4 years or older.

15 go to post and the off time is 2.55.

Topofthegame won this in 2018 before going on to win at that year’s Cheltenham festival.

Some bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race a good betting proposition.

The race was abandoned in 2012, 2013 and 2014 due to the weather and there was no race in 2021 so there is a smaller size of data than the ideal but I'll have a bash anyway.

 

I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

1.       Those horses carrying lighter loads have a good record. Horses carrying less than 10st 11lbs have won 6 times from 50 attempts with a level stakes profit of £15. Their heavier opposition have a record of 1 win from 52 attempts with a loss of £46.

2.       It is better to side with experienced horses. Those horses that have had more than 13 runs have produced 4 wins from 24 runs and a profit of £24. Their less experienced competitors have 3 wins from 78 runs and a loss of £55.

3.       Outsiders have a poor record in this race. There have been 52 horses with forecast odds higher than 11/1 and all have lost.

4.       It is best to sidestep those horses with obvious from. Horses that have had more than 3 wins in their last 10 runs have produced 0 wins from 7 runs. Having said that, there should be some evidence that a horse has winning form, there have been 11 horses with 0 wins in their last 10 runs and they have all lost.

 

There are 2 horses that match these criteria.

COQUELICOT – available at 10/1 with William Hill, 5 places.

GREEN BOOK – available at 8/1 with BET365, 4 places. Green Book won this last year under the same jockey.

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1.20 Leopardstown - WEVEALLBERNCAUGHT 5/1 Betvictor ( only UK raider on today's card , won well at Cheltenham last time out , clever of NTD to see what the Irish have . 👎

4.10 Leopardstown - GRANGE WALK 18/1 Bet365 ( 4 places ) is off the same mark as when finishing 2nd in this race last year . 👎

Edited by calva decoy
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I do fancy quite a lot of the favourites in today's AW racing but here's a few at bigger odds that might cause an upset or just taking on short priced favourites - prices bet365

Ling 1.16 - Fox Vision 7/2 has a chance against the well odd-on hotpot
Ling 1.51 - Starsong at 9/1 - EW shot

Kemp 6.30 - Fayasal 10/1 - EW shot
Kemp 7.00 - Chola Empire 5/2 has a chance to beat the odds on Fav
Kemp 7.30 - Girlswannahavefun  7/1 - EW shot
Kemp 8.00 - Rockabill Angel 6/1 - maybe one for EW doubles or accas

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Lucky 15 from the Irish racing festival today
 

1.55 Gust of Wind.  10/1

2.30 Saint Rio. 17/2

3.40 Takarengo. 33/1. 6 places

4.10 Jody Ted  8/1. 5 places

Some great races with a view to Cheltenham, shame 1 trainer has to run 6, 5, 4, 4 runners in some races can’t be good long term for racing. Even if the racing should be ultra competitive.

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7 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Some great races with a view to Cheltenham, shame 1 trainer has to run 6, 5, 4, 4 runners in some races can’t be good long term for racing. Even if the racing should be ultra competitive.

Yep, there is a monopoly in Ireland, hope the UK doesn't go the same way

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1.45 San Dolos 7/2

3.01 Lin Sir Busker 9/4

3.16 Muss Lebowski 5/1

7.00 Km Kingdom Come 10/11

1 x 0.40 win Lucky 15 = 6 pts staked. poss return of 189.96

Singles:

1.10 San Hot Rod Lincoln 1 pt win at 11.0

2.03 Muss The Wolf 1 pt win at 10.00

2.40 Weth City Chief 1 pt win at 4.4

2.55 San Remasterd 1 pt win at 7.2

Here's hoping that @The Brigadierhas a great day.  Not to mention that if he does I may do so too 🙂

Total stakes = 10 points

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lost 4.54 points today.  Not too bad considering that I had only two winners and one of those was at a skinny consolation amount in the Lucky15.  This makes my MTD loss -22.02 and YTD Loss -45.72

The good news is that I have secured £30 in credits on my new Betfred account.  I placed £10 to win on Kingdom Come in the 7.00 at Kempton at evens and then laid it on Betfair so as to negate any liability.  I will be using the £30 over the next week for 5 Lucky 15's.  They will cost me nothing.  If they lose I will count them towards my losses though in reality they won't count against my true balance. Any winnings will count towards my monthly and annual profit.

I will continue to bet in total 10 points.  This means 5.60 pts on singles and 4.40 pts on multiples.  I do realise that my singles bets should be something like 5 or 10 times my multiple stakes but I am not so confident as to scale up the singles bets at this time. 

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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3 hours ago, Trotter said:

I do fancy quite a lot of the favourites in today's AW racing but here's a few at bigger odds that might cause an upset or just taking on short priced favourites

the first 5 races have been won by the favourite ........ I guess a useful tip is that if you think the favourite will win don't bother looking for a bigger priced one to beat it

A 6/4 winner is better than a 10/1 loser

I expect that's what Confucious would have said if he followed the nags

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Jesus, that finish, lol, thought it had a rocket up its jacksy. 

Not the best day, bit busy today so couldn't post.

 

Couple of winners and waiting on a couple for doubles,  laskalin for 1 and lebiwski for another.

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4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

You look at results from Ireland today and you would be justified if you said the games as bent as a nine bob note.

What's being saved & what's at full steam , impossible to judge from the outside looking in !

I don't think having Autumn / Spring ground at the start of February helps , wouldn't surprise me to see good to firm in a couple of weeks time here in UK with barely any rain forecast .

Edited by calva decoy
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4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

You look at results from Ireland today and you would be justified if you said the games as bent as a nine bob note.

Can't see why.

In my opinion Lossiemouth was the only one that maybe got turned over. I would put that down to a bad ride from Paul Townend. All through the race he followed stablemate Jourdefete who was a terrible jumper. Three out what was likely to happen, happened. Jourdefete made an error and Lossiemouth lost terrible ground, dropping back to last. 

Appreciate It, I never fancied since he went chasing and I thought El Fabiolo would turn it over today. ;)

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23 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

You look at results from Ireland today and you would be justified if you said the games as bent as a nine bob note.

I'd be dubious about betting in the 1.40 at Leoparstown on Sunday, 5 out of 6 trained by Willie Mullins !

Having said that I once think the first 5 home in the Gold Cup were trained by the same trainer and it was lauded as a great training feat

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