Alley Cat Glover
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Posts posted by Alley Cat Glover
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24 minutes ago, Striker said:
I got 16’s drifted through the day, have started taking the SP rather than the price on some of the longer price E/W selections as I want the extra places but they tend to over shorten the price. Can not cash out though as they don’t then offer one. But then not often you want to cash a horse race bet. Bit different to football that lasts 90 minutes, and you can get some decisions that can alter the likely result you were expecting.
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Brighton v Aston Villa (2) @ 2.6
Birmingham v Luton (2) @ 2.67
Rennes v St Etienne (1) @ 2.00
12ptr win treble please
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Aston Villa please
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2 hours ago, Alley Cat Glover said:
Can not see Southend or Stevenage picking up many points tonight both not good on the road. Tranmere home win bet for me tonight though. Also fancy Mansfield away at Walsall.
Ok I give up, would not have seen those two results coming round the corner. Gives us hope, need 2 of the bottom 3 to start putting a bit of form together.
Great debut by Bolton’s new marquee signing lasting about 12 minutes on the pitch. On to Saturday where hopefully Stevenage can continue their new found away form. Bottom 3 all face tough games though if they survive the weather that is. -
On 2/8/2021 at 3:34 PM, yossa6133 said:
Doesn't look like Southend or Grimsby are going to help us out. Good bet but think we'll need them to go bust to collect.
Can’t see them going bust this season now, too many changes going on with the squad and academy, if not going to finish the season don’t think they would have happened.
Tonight is a big night Bolton home to Morecambe, not sure Bolton were good last game or Leyton Orient were bad, guess we will be wiser after tonight. Morecambe don’t do many draws, have a decent away record.
Can not see Southend or Stevenage picking up many points tonight both not good on the road. Tranmere home win bet for me tonight though. Also fancy Mansfield away at Walsall.
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Will try another handicap for tomorrow Class 4 2m 1f, 1.35 at Carlisle. Currently 9 runners although with one running today fully expect Leostar to be a non runner.
Hart of Steel. 8.65 13/2 4/1
Crack Du Ninian. 8.5 13/2 7/2
Velasco. 8.15 13/2 5/1
Aristo Du Plessis. 7.4 15/2 14/1
Top 3 rated not much between them and make up the first 3 in the market so can not really pick 4th rated against them although seems value. Did win course and distance last year and is 3lbs below mark and is having cheek pieces reapplied after 3 poor races.
I don’t seem to be getting much of a split between runners when rating and certainly can’t seem to find much in the value front. If doing even more runners in larger fields is the difference increasingly small, how do you differentiate between runners in a 25 runner handicap? I know everyone does it different but the rating values all seem very similar.
I guess you need to have confidence in your ratings and as has been said back one of your top 2 rated. Therefore going to try Hart of Steel win and reverse forecast with CdN
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14 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Charlie has issued an apology on his twitter page , not that he needs too but was disappointing run .
To be honest don’t know why first race was there when they are getting rid of it in April, I believe, would have preferred Newcastle or to wait longer, suspect they want to get him race fit for the turf season and better ground, but just don’t like Southwell.
Good luck for tomorrow, Newcastle seems a very fair track so hope he runs well. -
Not even going to attempt 25 runner fields yet, after yesterday’s 2nd and nowhere (from being prominent disappeared very quickly) thought I’d have a go at the 3.10 Leopardstown now only the bear 8 runners.
Monkfish 10.2 5/1 4/6
Latest Exhibition 9.45 11/2 7/2
Andy Dufresne 8.75 13/2 10/1
Fils D’oudaries 7.05 8/1 25/1
Now obviously graded race level weights and Monkfish beat Latest Exhibition last time out over further. Can not be risking a 4/6 odds on a Novice Chase when anything could happen, Monkfish is the probable winner. You have the X form wise of Asterion Forlonge but needs to have a clear round before my money goes anywhere near it. Anyway going E/W small stake Andy Dufresne for interest only 10/1 with Bet365.
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Cable Guy has his first run today in the 4.05 at Southwell, 6 runners currently, although seeing as one raced yesterday no surprise if we get a non runner to make if 5, will come on a lot for his first run we are told, not run on a deep fibresand surface before with a previous winner in the race, a watching brief is best advised, was 7/1 already drifting out to 10’s. Speed is in his pedigree and would think hopefully after a couple of runs the green grass later this year might be better suited to him.
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Can’t find a lot of any value in today’s fixtures, don’t know what to make of Bolton’s transfer business I guess the next few games and weeks will tell us. The month of February will tell us a lot both about Bolton and the teams that seem to have lost all form Grimsby, Barrow and Southend.
Of today’s fixtures only Tranmere at home to Port Vale appeals but only around evens, Can not see Grimsby getting anything at Newport, would have fancied Morecambe but Stevenage quiet strong at home so not for me.Lets hope Salford put on their shooting boots.
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Tried the 2.05 at Mussleborough Cl2 2.0 Hurdle
Lockerroom Talk. 9.2 7/1. 16/1 Available (value)
Voix De Reve. 9.0. 15/2 12/1 Value
Blakeny Point. 9.0 15/2 8/1 about right
Newtown Boy. 7.9 9/1 8/1 about right
Dear Sire. 7.8 9/1 16/1 Value
It would seem wherever Blakeney Point finishes Voix De Reve will not be far away judged on last run and 1lb pull in favour of VdR. Christopher Wood and Torgini raced against each other last time and again are closely matched with Angus Cheleda taking off a useful 7lb.
Lockerroom talk my top rated, reverts to hurdles could be well handicapped if can bring the same form over Hurdles, first race for a new yard. Going to try both VdR and Lockerroom E/W to small stake.
- Villa Chris and Wildgarden
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Nice v Angers (2) @ 2.7
St Etienne v Metz (2) @ 3.9
Tranmere v Port Vale (1) @ 2.2
10pts win treble please
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West Ham please
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Interesting I have done the 2.00 @ Catterick as well Class 3, 3m1f HH
Wbee 7.3 8-1 8-1 about right
Legalised 7.2 8-1 6-1 no value
Bryden Boy. 7.0 8-1 8-1 about right
Jessiemac 6.5 9-1 12- 1 value
Dadsintrouble 6.5 9-1 9-1 about right
Now again last time out Dadsintrouble was in front of Bryson Boy by about 11 lengths with only a 1lb pull can’t see that being reversed all things being equal? Jessiemac would have scored higher but been off track for 100+ days, but claimer takes off 5lb which would be another positive.
Going with Jessiemac e/w 12/1 with bet365 to a small stake. Thing Wbee may well be there about also.
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21 hours ago, Alley Cat Glover said:
Top 5 rated
Dan Macgrew 8.7 6/1. 33/1 available. ???Broken Quest. 8.5. 6/1 4/1. No Value
Stormy Flight. 8.3. 13/2. 3/1. No Value
Thor de Cerisy. 7.7 7/1 7/1 about right
Rocheston 6.5 8/1 6/1 No Value
Review, nowhere near the winner or 2nd on ratings, neither had much form on the heavy going or much in the way of ratings to back up a turn of form, always going to get these sort of results. To be fair Zafar had come down in the ratings a lot and had been getting closer.
Try another race and see where that leads. -
Going to give it another go, might survive the weather this time. Gone for the 14.45 at Wincanton, 10 runners Class 3 2m 3f. Interesting outcome, not sure quiet what to make of it.
Top 5 rated
Dan Macgrew 8.7 6/1. 33/1 available. ???Broken Quest. 8.5. 6/1 4/1. No Value
Stormy Flight. 8.3. 13/2. 3/1. No Value
Thor de Cerisy. 7.7 7/1 7/1 about right
Rocheston 6.5 8/1 6/1 No Value
Now Dan Macgrew (went off at 100/1 for new stable) finished 8 lengths behind Stormy Flight at Exeter last time out is 2lb better for those 8 lengths. Dan Macgrew has won off 130 and runs of 130 here, Stormy Flight won off 115 runs off 123 here, beat 5 lengths by Bear Ghylls. Last time out who is unbeaten. This will be Dan’s third run this season, Stormy Flight will be running for the 5th time. So could the extra fitness and 2lb be enough to reverse places with Stormy Flight, is it proper value. Going to have to back him E/W to small stake now.
Interested for anybody else’s thoughts, have I gone wrong somewhere?
- Wildgarden and BBBC
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Don’t know if Sedgefield will be on but tried rating the 1.30 10 runners Class 3, 2 mile hurdle.
Top 4 I have as follows
Hasenkey 8.4 13/2 9/1 available Value
Hart of Steel 8.1 7/1 9/2 available no value
Martinhal 7.6 15/2 9/4 no value
Laskaline 7.0 8/1 4/1 no value
Other points to note Treshnish no form but been Chasing first run back over hurdles off a winning mark if decides he likes them I had as 11/1 and 33’s available but not a bet for me. Oscars Leader I have as 5th rated and finished 2nd to The Cob over 2m 3f, 2 starts back this has been shortened to 7/2 from 6’s by bet365.
Any comments gratefully received.
See how it goes, if it gets past inspection!
- Wildgarden and Villa Chris
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56 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
Grade 2 wasn’t it? That’s a fair step up in class for her, but some of the graded races in this country are not all that. Where’s the next step? Not going Cheltenham don’t think.
That’s where I start getting confused she won a Class 3 at Kempton Xmas 2019, I bought into her on the back of that run. My wife bought me a share in another horse for that Xmas and being new to it won a few quid at 14/1 so bought a share in her (only 1/3000) but it’s an interest, anyway learning about her all the time, ran at Musselborough last year in Class 2 and probably hit the front too soon. COVID finished last season off believe she might have gone to Aintree if it had not. So this year 2 flat runs to get her ready for hurdles, won a Class 2 at Ludlow, should/ could of won Class 2 at Musselborough last time, now I don’t know how big a jump it is from Class 2 to a Class 1 Grade 2. Up next is a guess, she did hold an entry in the betfair hurdle but was taken out at the latest forfeit stage so not now. No Cheltenham entry, never has been, never been entered there not sure why seem to think it would not suit her, on what basis I don’t know. So Kingwell Hurdle has been mentioned on Facebook page after yesterday’s run, but that could be because at Wincanton and she has run there before and local to Nicholls. Otherwise Aintree would be possible if suitable race? Would think she will race maybe twice more over hurdles this season maybe have a break somewhere, talk of some flat races possible as well, Megan Nicholls seems to think she would have possibilities off her mark.
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11 minutes ago, Robb089 said:
If I’d of gone that extra yard to of watched her previous race, and made the logical adjustment to rating like you did then my thought process probably may have been different.
Have the distinct advantage of being a shareholder in her. Didn’t need any research on her, had a report and basically tried to make a case for any of the others and although a close call thought she would/ should be very close to win, it turned out to look visually a lot easier than thought it would have been.
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Just seen your post Chris, Miranda was 11/4, Irish Roe was I believe double figures just about.
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29 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
I usually only go on what’s Infront of me. For that reason alone Miranda wouldn’t have been my top rated although she may have rated in top 3/4.
Would hope so there was only 6 in the race and one of those I put a line through without studying anything else about it! ?. I guess the point I was making is none of the calculations make any allowance for distance beaten or looking at last runs and awarding bonus points, but do you do that from your own ratings before using Richards method or do you try and pick winner and then apply Richards ratings. It seems to me that finding winners is value in itself 5/2 winner is better than a 6/1 loser as the old adage goes. Finding big priced winners is excellent and have enjoyed following this thread and trying to do my own thing, might have to post some shortly after all got to prove things. I only used to bet 1 horse in a race but find picking 2 has several benefits. Including taking risks yesterday. Quite often do the 10p eachway trebles, picking 2 in each race only costs £1.60 and gives me a way of tracking what I do.
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1 hour ago, Robb089 said:
I had a crack yesterday at 3 races at Doncaster, broken down as follows, Horse Score, Horse %, My Odds, Sky Bet Odds
2.05 Mares Chase
Floressa - 8.5, 17.8, 9/2, 2/1
Maries Rock - 6.5, 13.6, 6/1, 2/1
Irish Roe - 8.9, 18.6, 9/2, 11/1
Miranda - 7.5, 15.7, 6/1, 11/4
Raynas World - 8.7, 18.2, 9/2, 12/1
Sopat - 7.7, 16.1, 6/1, 40/113 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:Just jotted down a few things for graded races. Not overly different to how I’d do handicap races. What I would say though is that having won a grade 1 or 2 race should feature high in your %. The distance , they tend to usually run at the same distance the grade 1 horses do. Going? Some don’t like the going heavy but other than that I’d say all of them can run well on soft . I’ve also put my course form up to 10% from 5% for handicaps, as these beasts I find do have a preference for courses.
How do you allow for a horse on the upgrade with these breakdowns, taking Miranda as an example. She had not run in that class of race before, had not run at that track before, but was joint highest on ratings, and getting 4lbs as part of the conditions, her last race at Mussleborough, she finished 4th but if you watched it, in another 100yrds or with a better ride/path she would have won that race and instead of being on 143 she would have probably been rated 150 as I expect her to be now. Not sure how the handicapper will view it beating the right horse in receipt of 4lb might get away with a smaller rise, if only Harry had looked harder at work!
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4 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:
i notice from an earlier post you have Cable Guy? see thats got an entry for friday fingers crossed that goes well for you aswell
Yes, Cable Guy has been a bit frustrating but that’s to be expected with 2 year olds, Charlie Fellows seems positive about him, will just have to wait and see. Not looked at it yet probably will need the run and experience.
Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!
in League 1, 2 & Scottish Predictions
Posted
Well doesn’t tell us much. Only change of share ownership.
Nick Luckock is still there with a 20M loan that’s not surprising. He seems to be in the Private Equity business so maybe has something to do with the 2 x 20M loans secured. So no wonder he has 250,000 shares.
Michael Stuart James still has his 500,000 shares no change there.
Jeffery Paul Thomas has ‘sold’ his shares all 500,000 of them, left being a director of the company in July 2019 just before they ‘bought’ Bolton. Has been a Director of 130 companies, current directorships 30, seems like a professional director, why did he have 500,000 shares in the first place?
Sharron Brittan has also ‘sold’ 250,000 of her shares interestingly they have both sold them to the Company Football Ventures (Whites) Limited.
Now I am no expert on shares they are only paper and are only worth what someone else will pay for them. So a holding company had 6 ordinary shares in 2019 worth £1 each, then suddenly create 2,750,000 shares how much are they worth, were they just created I assume some money was paid for them or just out of thin air. So is this a share buy back by the Company? Why has Sharron parted with 250,000 of her shares?
Perhaps you could set up a supporter network and buy the 750,000 shares with some off your spare ‘bitcoins’ Perfect Storm. I’m sure you could tell how much they are worth! ?