Yalwen

Both rules were not satisfied. I believe the 1st rule is in place to make the admin easier. For the 2nd rule if the price cannot be verified then SP must be used.
Personally I detest foreign selections, the data feed I use for my results only include UK / Ireland so I have to  do a lot of manual amendments as well as finding and checking the results. Having said that I do understand @Zilzalian's frustration.
I would also restrict selections to UK/Ireland and only settle tips to SP as there is too much leeway for abuse with early prices/BOG - only my opinion mind you

Both rules were not satisfied. I believe the 1st rule is in place to make the admin easier. For the 2nd rule if the price cannot be verified then SP must be used.
Personally I detest foreign selections, the data feed I use for my results only include UK / Ireland so I have to  do a lot of manual amendments as well as finding and checking the results. Having said that I do understand @Zilzalian's frustration. 
I am open to changing the rules if appropriate.
One option maybe that for foreign races proof is needed in terms of a screenshot that shows the price, otherwise the selection will be deemed a loser.

You seem unhappy with both UK racing and now it's the naps.  I guess you could run your own non-UK naps contest with your rules.  That's what I would do if I was in your position, having re-read your post and thought about it from your POV.  At the end of the day, his house, his rules.  

BOG  was tried before  in the naps thread was a lot of hard work and hassle wrong prices quoated  etc  that's  my memory of it was a long time ago.
Best keep as is i would have thought  but that's just my view and i don't even post there

Other than bet365 I don't know of any bookie who offers b.o.g. on European & Rest of the World racing & they've tightened up especially with US racing not posting prices for regular racing the day before which used to be a fantastic edge pricewise but as for @Zilzalian I feel his frustrations but rules are rules I suppose I just treat this as a friendly competitive site with a bit of banter thrown in win lose or draw .

I’m guessing the rules are there to keep everything as simple as possible and so @MCLARKE doesn’t have to scour different bookies, websites, asking members for Proof of odds etc.  I’m assuming he has most of it automated, through the use of some kind of a webscraper.  

I don't know I had USA races 6/1 returned 6/4 I had a good moan.Michaels busy enough it would be extra work so I think keep it same we kno what the rules are

thought i'd share this with you ted / the landlord in my local proudly declared to few of us punters last evening that he'd developed betting system,
having listened to his description of how it operates i quickly deduced that it was "shite" and completly without any logic, being the shrewd punter
that i am /  i offered to lay all the bet's that he and few bar punters were going to make on the selections from the little bank they had put together
{ this is like shelling pea's says i / easy beer money }  well so far today they had winners at 14/1, 10/1, 7/2, 14/1,9/1, amoung the selections
and still got the evening meetings to go  ? ??    i will stick to punting them from now on  ?

Yep, I hate going with non racing mates because they always ask me for tips. I'll give them a 10/1 winner and 5 losers and they'll still complain.

Ha Ha , not at all , I'd never go racing on a Saturday because of all the drunken / drugged idiots even moreso when football season isn't on .
As for music I've took non racing mates too Donny twice to see Madness & UB40 & regretted both occasions having to put up with their rowdy behaviour & or constant whining despite one of  mates at UB40 winning I think 5 out of the 7 races but they have no interest in regular day racing as well as girl at work will go to 2/3 Newmarket nights & you ask her about the racing & she can't remember for being too pissed ?
You can't beat the good ol' days ???

West Ham are getting battered in today's Sun page 11 for some of the things we're talking about .
£9.50 hamburger 
£7.60 Heineken 
£4.50 bottle of cola 
£7.20 strongbow 
£2.50 bag of crisps 
It's been dubbed by Hammers fans as West Scam ?

I buy a uttoxeter Course membership it gives you all the areana owned courses free entrance something like 17 courses great value for 199 pounds free entrance for a whole year most young people now only go racing to get smashed I went in my younger days to try and learn anything that would give me an edge

Same here, I like a few beers when I go racing so it's expensive. I can watch it on TV with a can of beer for 50p rather than £5.
I don't think young people are attracted to racing like they used to be, there is too much for them to do elsewhere. Very little publicity now for racing, only time it's on the news is when a female jockey wins a big race !
Perhaps we should teach it at school as parts of the maths curriculum, the caluculation of the longest losing run is a good start.

Used to go racing every month but since Covid now only 2/3 times a year .
It's not the entrance prices ( it's £18.05 ) for Thursday 22nd September first day of the Cambridgeshire meeting , it's the £6.95 for a pint of Guinness or the £6.50 for a burger that costs about 40p to make , just rinsing the punters as much as they can , football is also going down the same route , both sports will be exclusively for the elite & wealthy in a decades time ☹️

How sad to see what used to be the best racing pages out of all the newspapers, now become one of the poorest.
The Ratings used to be a tremendous help in finding winners, and a listing of the top five trainers and jockeys at the Course, plus jocks riding weight.
I have now had to purchase a magnifying glass to read the print, now four or five Meetings are crammed into one page.
I can’t see it being long before my subscription to The Daily Mail is terminated.
 
 

Course / Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Ascot       13:00 Amanzoe 2.50 win 1st 13:35 Stone Soldier 12.50 EW (4 places) 3rd 14:10 Hurricane Ivor 12.00 EW (4 places) 8th 14:45 Super Superjack 3.25 win 6th 15:20 Pride of Priory 4.50 win 1st 15:55 Redarna 14.00 EW (5 places) 2nd 16:30 Hamaki 4.50 win 1st 17:05 Sterling Knight 12.00 EW (4 places) 5th I'm extemely pleased with today's results ?

A bumper eleven races being covered on Saturday afternoon by ITV coming from Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket and here's my thoughts on all eleven -   Ascot 1.35 ITV’s Shergar Cup coverage starts with the second on the card at Ascot - the 7F classified stakes where on official ratings there’s only 4lb between the field. Orbaan was impressive in winning the Golden Mile at Goodwood last week but was well drawn and this will be a totally different test with just eight runner under a 7lb penalty. At the likely odds I’ll take him on. One horse who I feel is overpriced is Katie Scott’s Gweedore. The five year old gelding actually beat Orbaan at Ayr only a month ago by a cosy 2 1/4L receiving 4lb and actually receives 5lb from David O’Meara’s charge today. He’s currently five times the price and hopefully if all eight stand their ground will be worth backing each way. Crack Canadian jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson who’s won the Golden Saddle here before takes the ride which is no negative at all.   GWEEDORE 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Ascot 2.10 The Shergar Cup Dash is up next, a 5F handicap. A case can be made for plenty with my main fancy being Robert Cowell’s Arecibo who will be ridden today by Danny Tudhope who has actually ridden the seven year old gelding fourteen times in his career. The last time he was seen in a handicap was eleven runs ago back in May 2021 when winning at Newmarket off of a mark of 99, 4lb lower than today’s mark. He’s kept very good company since running in group races this season. He’s still got plenty of zip and looks the one to beat. Mick Appleby’s King Of Stars arrives in good form having run well here last month and has claims along with the only three year old in the field Manaccan who may have more improvement to come. He looks the danger to Arecibo.   ARECIBO 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill   Haydock 2.25 A small field of only seven assemble for this class 2 one mile handicap. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Electrical Storm is the favourite and holds a good chance on the back of a York victory and 3rd in a decent Sandown handicap where the horse just behind him Protaganist has won since. Off of the same mark he should go close. Top weight Young Fire is 3 from 6 at the track and is another with claims whilst the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Dutch Decoy may be the best current value having won at Newmarket on the July course last month prior to a credible 2L 4th in a decent Goodwood handicap last week over a furlong further. Back to a mile should suit and he’s my selection. Skybet, William Hill and Betfred are paying three places in this even runner contest and that looks the way to go.   DUTCH DECOY 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Ascot 2.45 The Shergar Cup Stayers is a handicap run over two miles and looks destined to go to Goodwood runner up Super Superjack trained by Milton Harris. He was unlucky not to have won that day as he didn’t get the breaks when he needed them and the drop back half a mile today will hopefully suit him. Nicola Currie who was in top form with a treble a Carlisle earlier in the week has been drawn to ride him. Ralph Beckett’s top weight Rock Eagle went down by half a length to Reshoun at Newbury last month and looks the biggest danger to the selection.   SUPER SUPERJACK 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill   Haydock 3.00 William Haggas’s Grocer Jack was highly impressive on his British/stable debut and will be hard to beat in this group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes run over 1m 2F 100yds for three year olds and upwards. He’s a skinny enough price mind for one that who’s win can be crabbed as I’m not sure what he beat that day. I can remember saying at the time what a weak listed contest it was. At the likely prices I’m against him. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Passion And Glory is interesting having won a listed contest at Sandown last time whilst the most interesting form line may well turn out to be the first and third from the John Smiths Cup at York a month ago. Owen Burrows’ Anmaat won that on his seasonal re-appearance with Intellogent 3/4L back in third at the line having come from some way back. On 2lb better terms I’ll take Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Intellogent to turn the tables especially as he is proven with cut in the ground unlike Anmaat.   INTELLOGENT 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 123   Ascot 3.20 The Shergar Cup Challenge is a handicap run over a mile and a half for four year olds and upwards. Newmarket trainer William Haggas has some interesting entries today none more so than his lightly raced four year old gelded son of Pivotal, Pride Of Priory. He’s chasing a hat trick of victories having won all weather handicaps at around this trip at Kempton and Newcastle this summer. He’s risen 10lb for those two success’s but may still be ahead of his mark especially now getting back on turf which he won twice on last Autumn. Kieran Shoemark has been drawn to ride and that’s certainly not a negative. The Whipmaster comes here in good shape having won four of his last five starts but I would be very worried of the form of his trainer Gary Moore who has gone 15 days and 19 runners since his last winner. Southern Voyage is another interesting runner from the Archie Watson stable who was well backed last time when apparently breaking a blood vessel.   PRIDE OF PRIORY 2 points win @ 7/2 Paddy Power   Newmarket 3.40 Nine two year old fillies go to post for the group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes run over 7F of the July course. Likely favourite is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Lakota Sioux who was last seen seven weeks ago when third in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. That form hasn’t worked out that well and I think he’s worth taking on today. Richard Spencer’s Ivory Madonna failed to win his maiden last time and is another I can be against. I’m keen on the once raced Karl Burke trained Novakai, a daughter of Lope De Vega who bolted up on her debut at Doncaster at 12/1 and could be useful and the similarly once raced Ismail Mohammed trained Alseyoob who won a Newmarket maiden on her debut in a race where the third won at the weekend. I’ll dutch the pair.   ALSEYOOB 1 point win @ 6/1 bet365 NOVAKAI point win @ 4/1 bet365   Ascot 3.55 The Shergar Cup Mile is a handicap that is open to four year olds and upwards and features, to my eyes, the best bet on the card. William Haggas trains the lightly raced four year old chestnut son of Exceed And Excel Montassib who’s won three of his five career starts and hasn’t been been beaten far in two big field handicaps on his last two starts. Off of the same handicap mark and with Danny Tudhope in the plate he looks a worthy favourite and can take this. Isla Kai has been a bit disappointing so far this season but his time is near and he should be thereabouts whilst David O’Meara’s ex Irish import Bopedro who ran well on his English debut when fourth of ten here can also be thereabouts but for me this is all about Montassib who’s stepping up to a mile today for the first time.   MONTASSIB 3 points win @ 5/2 bet365   Curragh 4.15 A small but select field of six go to post for this years renewal of the group one Phoenix Stakes run over 6F. Aidan O’Brien saddles a brace of decent two year olds in Blackbeard and Little Big Bear. Ryan Moore appears to have chosen the latter and following a demolition job in a group 3 here last time should be thereabouts but may not be good enough to beat the English raider Bradsell who could be very good. A visually impressive winner at York on his debut in May he followed up a month later when a cosy winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot from subsequent group winners Persian Force, Royal Scotsman and Blackbeard. Trainer Archie Watson was stating earlier in the week that he hasn’t got anything fast enough at home to lead him on the gallops including group one winner Glen Shiel. Hollie Doyle’s over to ride and although this is a step up from Ascot he could be very good and worth a good bet.   BRADSELL 3 points win @ 7/4 bet365   Ascot 4.30 1m 4f is the distance of the Shergar Cup Classic a handicap for three year olds only. William Haggas is maybe in for a good day and his Hamaki is my fancy here. He’s been raised 5lb for his victory at Haydock last time out on soft ground but has done enough on faster ground previously to suggest that he handles any types of ground. Jamie Spencer rides and although not my favourite jockey can certainly get the job done when needed. Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Breeze is still maiden after six starts but has been knocking on the door on his last two starts and his time is near. The Gosden’s Franz Strauss got turned over in a three runner handicap last time and may have little in hand of his mark.   HAMAKI 2 points each way @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234   Ascot 5.05 The Shergar Cup concludes with the Sprint, a handicap run over 6F for three year olds only. That man William Haggas has another fancied runner here in the shape of the Jose-Luis Martinez ridden Razeyna, a winner at Carlisle last time which is already starting to work out. He should run well but I want to with the Richard Fahey trained Admiral D who’s run well in defeat in two of the best three year old sprint handicaps of the season so far. Runner up to Lethal Levi (winner since) at Newmarket last time he will ridden by the capable Joanna Mason and should be bang there at the finish. Reserve Conflict is making his handicap debut for Andrew Balding and would be a player if getting a run.   ADMIRAL D 2 points win @ 7/2 Coral   On a footnote Unibet are currently promoting a great offer of their 15 to Go Offer on all of the ITV races (in Sunday as well) where if you place a bet with them in the 15 minutes before the scheduled start time and back the winner they will match your stake with a free bet up to £20. That’s a great offer I think and if you want to get involved click on this link    Unibet 15 to Go Offer

‘I think your meticulous record keeping is a excellent example for many on this site’.
I could not agree more.
Keep going, ralphie and thanks for all the hard work. It is appreciated.

‘I think your meticulous record keeping is a excellent example for many on this site’.
I could not agree more.
Keep going, ralphie and thanks for all the hard work. It is appreciated.

No, I still admire the longevity of this system and I think your meticulous record keeping is an excellent example for many on this site.

This is an interesting and fascinating post. I have been using the RaceAdvisor site for some time and believe that when combined with At The Races it’s the best free online information there is. I am puzzled, though. 
You obviously do extensive research and I try to do that too, what with spreadsheets and other daily betting chores but I am wondering how you calculate the ‘price differential’ to such precision as 267%. Would you be prepared to show us how as I don’t think I have come across it before.
Anyway, MCCLARKE good luck with your odds on venture and thanks for your post which I always find balanced and interesting. 
 
Yalwen
 
 
 

 

 
 

On the other side of the coin, I like to watch my horses win and it will be quite comforting to watch them win most of their races. If you are confident that long term you will make a profit then the occasional loser is not an issue, it's a fact that 1/5 shots will lose once every 6 runs.
As with most things in racing you need the right temperament to cope with the inevitable losing runs. At least with this process those losing runs should be short.

I suppose I am trying to prove just that, albeit selecting just 1 per day.
Backing them all at SP results in approximately a 4% loss, I'm hoping to turn this into a profit using BOG.

I use the Race Advisor for my raw data. 
Horse Forecast Odds Bresson 1.62 Inspirited 1.73 Royal Parade 1.18 I believe they use the RP as their source data, not sure why they are different to the figures you quote. It doesn't make a lot of difference, I'm only using the data to quickly identify odds on horses.
I obviously made an error in selecting Bresson, for some reason I picked the 1st horse in the list, rather than the lowest odds. However it still fits the criteria of the process.
Interesting point about the fav to 2nd fav differential. This will remove those a lot of those situations where there are 2,3 or 4 runners in the race where there will often be an odds on favourite. The losses in these small field races are 3% higher than the average.
 

Just to add to my post above regarding the stats suggesting that you can't make a profit on odds on shots ........ that of course refers to backing all odds-on shots
But of course no one would do that
On any given day there might be six odds on shots and four of them will win and two of them will lose ......... the art is in not backing the two that will lose !
Just like any selection process you have to pick which ones you think will win and avoid the ones you think might lose  .......... and then you have to be right most of the time.