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Cork 18.20 Trueba 16/1 Bet 365

The Two year olds are everything to me once they have run enough times. You might want to break down the 2yo in pattern races to see if that 1.021 gets better. I stop using the speed figures for singles once a horse enters handicaps and just use them for the pattern at 3yo and up.

You my lad (yes i know you don't like the word "lad" but its a dialect thingy) need to give your head a wobble, you create more twists and turns than a box of screws. Strewth ew an a 4/1 shot to pennies is a recipe that can only appease your missus.

My data so far seems to back up the use of speed figures in handicaps. Based on their next run in a particular year the AE for non handicaps is 1.023 and shows a small profit whilst for handicaps the AE is 0.978. Other interesting conclusions at this stage are :- 2yo show a profit with an AE of 1.021. AW returns are relatively poor with an AE of 0.975. Horses with forecast odds less than 9/4 have an AE of 0.963. Returns for class 1 to 3 races have a return of 0.969. This appears to be at odds with the fact that returns are better for non handicaps, I will investigate this further. This is just for the next run, I now need to extend the analysis to the next few runs.

2.40 Nottingham - Lone Piper = E.way 100/1 Paddypower

Cat Ninja wins nicely at 5/2 for a 5.25pt return and 3.75pt profit So Grateful not placed therefore a 2pt loss Overall for the day = +1.75pts Running P/L = +9.65pts

Serves me right for picking a horse with the form figures PP

Yes, thank goodness for the exchanges, I'm not sure why everybody doesn't use them. Excluding the offers, the overround on the exchanges is 2%, with the trad bookies it is 10% + Yesterday's fantastic 36/1 winner for @black rabbit paid 93/1 on Betfair

Punchestown 15.28 £20 Club Manager @3/1 Paddypower

It can get really complicated when place terms come into play as well. Many years ago I did each way perms on the top nationalities markets in a Major and the shop hadn’t got a clue how to settle it. I didn’t know either but I knew they weren’t offering me enough. I ended up speaking to a guy in their back office who explained it really well so I’ve had a decent understanding of it since then.

Punchestown 15.28 Club Manager @3/1 Paddypower

Brighton 4.55 Mudlahhim 5/2 betfair

Ah yes the good old days, i did well too on the Bet 365 Channel 4 - 4/1 offer-can still hear Ray Winston advertising it...lol Sadly these things don't last forever,the trader put pay to that..:( When you lose that first account,it's like a badge of honour,but it quickly became irritating as one account closed after another. 365,Corals.Lads,PP,Hills,Betway, Betbright,Unibet and many many smaller ones ,the list was endless.What was really annoying was losing accounts at Betway, Cashmans,and Boylesport without even backing a SINGLE WINNER- pure madness!. But it was losing that Bet 365 account which hurt the most..

2100 Carlisle Oceanic Wonder bet365 13/2 ty

Haha, nothing to do with Freebies, but earlier I had a choice between Napping Amazonian Dream for a win with Oisin Murphy aboard at 2/1 or selecting Lil Guth ew at 4/1 with Will Buick aboard ew at 4/1. WB had lost on his previous ride so I thought I had better value ew at 4/1 because if it won I would get a slightly better return on the ew bet and if it got placed, although, it would not be a winner at least my accumulated loss would not be dented too much. Lil Guth came last at 7/2 and Amaozonian Dream won at 2/1. Hence the horse with the assumed better probabilty of winning won anyway. Loads of twistes and turns in betting theory Eh?

I wasn't aware of that @harry_rag so thanks for the information. You learn something new and all that...

The only players affected are the 5 who tied for 20th place. They effectively shared 18th - 22nd place. So they would all payout as 3 5ths of stake as a winner and 2 5ths a loser as per standard dead heat rules. Everyone above them is a full winner, tied or not. Everyone below a loser.

No @harry_rag but one was tied higher up the leaderboard.

Were they in the tie for 20th place though, otherwise it's not relevant.

Brighton. 320. Uncle. Dick. 11/4. Bet 365.

That's interesting @philipwalsh19 I'll need to aftertime so apologies, but I had five players in the top 20 on the exchanges and the prices I took were the prices I was paid out on.

6.10 Huntingdon Therapist (Evens - William Hill)

340 nott Great chieftain. 8.8 9/1 Beauty generation 8.4 9/1 Interesting one .....computer has flagged great chieftain as a good value bet .......drop in class and tom marqand takes the ride .......5pts Ew great ....rev forecasts

A bit late as took a lot of faffing around for stats and prices. Gatti (Juve) to score at 15/1 and 2+ SoT at 20/1 4 goals this season all scrappy set piece scenarios. One if not two of his goals seemed to involve at least 2 attempts before they went in!

Medadthebookie 13.25 Punchestown 200/1 Paddy Power Each way