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Strewth! This was all right!

Biggest problem with system creators is that they become so entrenched in "their baby" that they blind themselves to all other considerations, they shout hallelujah when they get a winner (confirmation bias) but are silent/ignore if a loser. The smart people are those that no matter how much work they have put in to their system they are still able to reason around it taking many other variables into account to form a reasoned judgement. For me my Speed ratings are a starting point and i then see how many negatives i can find in the top rated and then make an informed decision which goes something like this A. go with the Speed figure. B. don't have a bet. or C. change my mind and bet another horse. On top of this i would consider what stakes each option is worth so If we take A. for example i would ask myself how strong is this number in relation to the others in the field and that would create further options like A. max stake B. Half/part stake. C. win or EW. or D. not a great option in my opinion (although i have on occasion) back more than one in the race. The big thing with me is if my horse doesn't come up to my expectations i don't just shrug it off i really want to know why even if there is no obvious reason and maybe simply got my assessment wrong. Tonight i top rated a french horse in the 730 at Chelmsford it got beat into second at 20/1 beaten by the favourite. Even though the Fav was on a good roll my conclusion was that Tazara was drawn in the widest stall was bumped at the start and it used up a lot of energy getting around the field to lead and i would hazard a guess that it would have been a very close call given a better draw.

Profit for April was £134.88 Breakdown at the end of April

4.35 Cheltenham Whatchagotder 25/1 EW BET365

A long, long way to go !

Not the legendary Van Der Wheil method ! I think it was based on adding the last 3 finishing positions together and taking the first 5 in the betting, I I looked at it once but the results weren't much better than random selection. As for each way betting, I only bet each way in handicaps of 16 runners + or where extra places are available. If you do the maths on a theoretical 16 runner race where all the horses are at odds of 15/1 you would breakeven backing all the horses to win but a return of 1.5 points if you bet each way.

Newcastle 6.10 Moonstone Boy 2/1 B365

Chelsea vs Tottenham Chelsea to win or draw double chance 4/9 Over 1.5 goals 1/14 Pick one

Chelmsford 9.00 Si Si La Bonne 12/1 win W Hill

siant lawrence 300 nmkt 16/1 coral

Jay Bee Why 17.25 Punchestown 40/1 bet365 Each way

It's the only racing I make money on !

Fav under performed got placed small profit

6.35 punchestown - churchstonewarrior 33/1 and popova 18/1 ew

I use the best rating the horse has achieved so that would be 75

1835 Punchestown Lucky Lyreen coral 12/1 ty

I suppose the obvious one tonight is for Adam Keighran to score for Wigan against his old club. Not for me at 9/4. Just for a bit of interest I've taken Catalan's prop Chris Satae at 22/1 (Bet 365). He usually comes off the bench and is often used as a powerhouse near the opponents' line. However, after last week's abject display at Leigh, it's conceivable that Catalan will not get enough decent field position for Satae to have any opportunities. In his stint at Hull FC Satae did score 16 tries in his 89 appearances. Both sides are on retrieval missions after defeats at Hull KR and Leigh respectively so should be an interesting game.

Bet 26 55p Trixie (£2.20) Bank -£40.45

teahupoo 6.00

You do an each way ? You ok ? 😁

It's @Johnrobertson's to lose ! 😉

4.00 Musselburgh - GIORGIO M 7/2 Betfair .

I'm hoping all is well with @glennhughes but he hasn't posted for a while (looks like he has visited the site again recently at least). @Skittle if we don't hear from him in the next 24 hours I'd suggest you stick a bet up next time one strikes you as worthwhile. Get some traction going!

Arabie N/R New selection: Doncaster 17.40 Sonic Blue @11/10 bet365

CC17:50 Zelma 51 365