Wiltshire Shot Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Have you checked the performance with level stakes? Occasionally,when someone has asked (see previous page). In short, level stakes results in a much lower return than using Kelly. Wednesday's: Joseba Lorente, Real Sociadad (v Levante), 48%, 11/8, 50 units (Boylesports) Nilmar, Villareal (v Heracles), 57%, 7/5, 131 units (unibet) Guiseppie Rossi, Villareal (v Heracles), 51%, 7/5, 79 units (unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version These systems test the laws of probability, I think this system tests probability most efficiently and I will be following. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Great work buddy - I like your style! This is a well thought out system. On a separate note, I see you have selected Nardiello a few times fir Exeter ; as an Exeter fan I agree the boy is a superb finisher, however his knees are a mess and he only seems to play last 20 minutes of games recently - this makes his stats look even more impressive when u consider his goals to minutes played ratio. Just wanted to let you know in case he qualifies in future, as I know it puts me off backing him to score anytime ! Keep up the good work ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Joseba Lorente' date=' Real Sociadad (v Levante), 48%, 11/8, 50 units [b']void(Boylesports) Nilmar, Villareal (v Heracles), 57%, 7/5, 131 units :@(unibet) Guiseppie Rossi, Villareal (v Heracles), 51%, 7/5, 79 units (unibet):) One of two, which ups the strike rate slightly but stilla small loss as it was the small one that came in. Thanks to Otter and SYMIL for your support - the system is going through a bad patch at the moment and your encouragement is a moraloe booster! Saturday: Kevin Gameiro, Lorient (v Nancy), 52%, 11/8, 88 units (Boylesports) Dmitri Bulykin, Hen Haag (v Nijmegen), 57/%, evens, 69 units (Bet365) Lucciano Becchio, Leeds United (v Doncaster), 50%, 23/20, 32 units (Vic Chandler) Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Exeter), 59%, 13/10 137 units (Vic Chandler) Ashley Grimes, Lincoln City (v Accrington), 48%, 6/4, 66 units (Bet365) Adam Le Fondre, Rotherham (v Barnet), 65%, evens, 150 units (General) Marc Bridge-Wilkinson, Darlington (v Cambridge United), 48%, 3/1, 153 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Kevin Gameiro, Lorient (v Nancy), 52%, 11/8, 88 units :@ (Boylesports) Dmitri Bulykin, Hen Haag (v Nijmegen), 57/%, evens, 69 units :) (Bet365) Lucciano Becchio, Leeds United (v Doncaster), 50%, 23/20, 32 units :)(Vic Chandler) Craig Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (v Exeter), 59%, 13/10 137 units :)(Vic Chandler) Ashley Grimes, Lincoln City (v Accrington), 48%, 6/4, 66 units :@(Bet365) Adam Le Fondre, Rotherham (v Barnet), 65%, evens, 150 units :@(General) Marc Bridge-Wilkinson, Darlington (v Cambridge United), 48%, 3/1, 153 units :@(Bet365) Three out of seven for Saturday, which is about the strike rate I'm looking for, but two of the bigger ones failed meaning a small loss for the day. I'll do an update after Sunday's games, which are: Jose Rendon, Malaga (v Osusuna), 48%, 21/10, 116 units (Unibet) Papiss Demba Cisse, Frieburg (v Werder Bremen), 86%, 13/8, 386 units (Boylesports) Andreas Granquist, Groningen (v Hercules), 51%, 7/2, 185 units (Unibet) Tim Matavz, Groningen (v Hercules), 55%, 8/5, 134 units (Unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Three out of seven for Saturday, which is about the strike rate I'm looking for, but two of the bigger ones failed meaning a small loss for the day. I'll do an update after Sunday's games, which are: Jose Rendon, Malaga (v Osusuna), 48%, 21/10, 116 units :@(Unibet) Papiss Demba Cisse, Frieburg (v Werder Bremen), 86%, 13/8, 386 units :D (Boylesports) Andreas Granquist, Groningen (v Hercules), 51%, 7/2, 185 units :@(Unibet) Tim Matavz, Groningen (v Hercules), 55%, 8/5, 134 units (Unibet) void At last, for the first time in a while, a positive weekend :nana (4 from 10, 1,535 returned from 13.82 staked, a yield of 11%). Overall: Strike rate: 54 from 147, 37% Yield: 19,148 returned from 18,505 staked (3%). 3% is disappointing, but my notional bank has increased from 1,000 units to 1,745 units so I suppose that's a better way of showing the statistic! I'm starting to see some patterns emerging - which leagues are more lucrative, which sort of bets are more likely to win etc, which I can hopefully use to improve things over the summer for next season. Or, I could stop at the end of December, which was when things started to go wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Tuesday's: Ryan Lowe, Bury (v Morecambe), 57%, 11/10, 89 units (Bet365) Byron Harrison, Stevenage (v Hereford), 63%, 7/4, 209 units (Bet 365) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Tamworth), 48%, 6/5, 23 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Tuesday's: Ryan Lowe, Bury (v Morecambe), 57%, 11/10, 89 units :@(Bet365) Byron Harrison, Stevenage (v Hereford), 63%, 7/4, 209 units :@(Bet 365) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Tamworth), 48%, 6/5, 23 units (Bet365):) Saturday: Adel Taarabt, QPR (v Crystal Palace), 48%, 13/10, 39 units, (Bet365) Steve Guinon, Forest Green (v Barrow), 48%, 7/5, 54 units (Bet365) Leon Constantine, York (v Eastbourne), 53%, 9/5, 84 units (Bet365) Willy Overtoon, Hercules (v Excelsior), 48%, 9/5, 95 units (Unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday: Adel Taarabt, QPR (v Crystal Palace), 48%, 13/10, 39 units, :@(Bet365) Steve Guinon, Forest Green (v Barrow), 48%, 7/5, 54 units void(Bet365) Leon Constantine, York (v Eastbourne), 53%, 9/5, 84 units void (Bet365) Willy Overtoon, Hercules (v Excelsior), 48%, 9/5, 95 units:@ (Unibet) Sunday: Alexandre Pato, Milan (v Bari), 53%, 21/20, 41 units (Bet365) Edward Ofere, Lecce (v Bologna), 48%, 31/10, 156 units (Bwin) Pablo Osvaldo, Espanyol (v Deportivo La Coruna), 54%, 2/1m 155 units (Unibet) Nilmar, Villareal (v Sporting Gijon), 52%, 17/11, 104 units (Unibet) Guiseppie Rossi, Villareal (v Sporting Gijon), 61%, 8/5, 183 units (Unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Sunday: Alexandre Pato, Milan (v Bari), 53%, 21/20, 41 units :@(Bet365) Edward Ofere, Lecce (v Bologna), 48%, 31/10, 156 units void(Bwin) Pablo Osvaldo, Espanyol (v Deportivo La Coruna), 54%, 2/1m 155 units void (Unibet) Nilmar, Villareal (v Sporting Gijon), 52%, 17/11, 104 units :@ (Unibet) Guiseppie Rossi, Villareal (v Sporting Gijon), 61%, 8/5, 183 units :)(Unibet) One from five for the weekend, but for once it was the big one, giving a 3% profit over the two days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version The system doesn't pick up anything for Tuesday, but I do like the look of freely-scoring Matt Tubbs at 8/11 for Crawley against freely conceding Hayes and Yeading for a couple of 'non-system' units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version The system doesn't pick up anything for Tuesday' date=' but I do like the look of freely-scoring Matt Tubbs at 8/11 for Crawley against freely conceding Hayes and Yeading for a couple of 'non-system' units.[/quote'] :nana :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version :nana :clap :nana:clap indeed, but on the other hand it's frustrating that a statistical system fails to pick up 'common sense' punts like this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday's picks: Rafael van der Vaart, Tottenham (v West Ham), 48%, 7/5, 54 units (Unibet) Jamie Cureton, Exeter City (v Yeovil), 54%, 6/4, 116 units (general) Ryan Lowe, Bury (v Cheltenham), 56%, 20/21, 49 units (Bet365) Byron Harrison, Stevenage (v Lincoln), 54%, 15/8, 138 units (Bet365) Mladen Petric, Hamburg (v Koln), 53%, 28/17, 122 units (Unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday's picks: Rafael van der Vaart, Tottenham (v West Ham), 48%, 7/5, 54 units :@(Unibet) Jamie Cureton, Exeter City (v Yeovil), 54%, 6/4, 116 units:) (general) Ryan Lowe, Bury (v Cheltenham), 56%, 20/21, 49 units:@ (Bet365) Byron Harrison, Stevenage (v Lincoln), 54%, 15/8, 138 units void(Bet365) Mladen Petric, Hamburg (v Koln), 53%, 28/17, 122 units :)(Unibet) A good day with the two biggest out of four coming in to nearly double the 341 unit stake. :nana Sunday: Samuel Et'o, Inter (v Lecce), 71%, 9/10, 193 units (Unibet) Antonio Di natale, Udinese (v Catania), 54%, 9/10, 14 units (Unibet) Morten Skovko, Roda (v Feyenoord), 48%, 2/1, 109 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version A good day with the two biggest out of four coming in to nearly double the 341 unit stake. :nana Sunday: Samuel Et'o, Inter (v Lecce), 71%, 9/10, 193 units :@(Unibet) Antonio Di natale, Udinese (v Catania), 54%, 9/10, 14 units :)(Unibet) Morten Skovko, Roda (v Feyenoord), 48%, 2/1, 109 units void (Bet365) One from two for the day; 3 from 6 for the weekend giving a yield of 17%. Overall strike rate 59 from 161, 37% Yield 20,314 froim 19,836 staked, 3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version One for Tuesday: Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Gateshead), 53%, 5/4, 77 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Gateshead), 53%, 5/4, 77 units (Bet365) :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus81 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version hi there, i was wondering where do you get your data from? which site? greetings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version hi there, i was wondering where do you get your data from? which site? greetings For the basic data on which matches to concentrate on I look at Oddschecker and the league tables on the BBC site. For likely goalscorers in those games and their odds I look at SoccerBase and Oddschecker again, and then one of several Kelly caulcualtors available on the web. Not particularly scientific, but I can't find or think of a quicker way. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday: Chris Wood, Brighton (v Swindon), 48%, 13/10, 39 units (Bet365) Glenn Murray, Brighton (v Swindon), 48 units, 11/10, 3 units (Bet365) Steven Gillespie, Colchester (v Exeter), 63%, 2/1, 222 units (Corals) Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Tamworth), 56% 6/5, 150 units (Bet365) Leon Constantine, York (v Histon), 53%, 13/10, 84 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Saturday: Chris Wood, Brighton (v Swindon), 48%, 13/10, 39 units void(Bet365) Glenn Murray, Brighton (v Swindon), 48 units, 11/10, 3 units :)(Bet365) Steven Gillespie, Colchester (v Exeter), 63%, 2/1, 222 units :)(Corals) Alan Connall, Grimsby (v Tamworth), 56% 6/5, 150 units :@(Bet365) Leon Constantine, York (v Histon), 53%, 13/10, 84 units void(Bet365) Two from three today, returning 672 from 375 units (79% yield). Overall: 62 from 165 (38% strike rate) 21,155 returned from 20,288 staked (4% yield) Original bank of 1000 units now 1,867 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two for Tuesday: Jamie Cureton, Exeter (v Swindon), 57%, 13/8, 152 units (Bet365) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Barrow), 54%, Evens, 40 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Two for Tuesday: Jamie Cureton, Exeter (v Swindon), 57%, 13/8, 152 units :@(Bet365) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Barrow), 54%, Evens, 40 units void(Bet365) Saturday's: Darren Ambrose, Crystal Plaace (v Barnsley), 48%, 9/4, 124 units (PaddyPower) Jamie Cureton, Exeter (v Dagenham & R), 56%, 6/4, 133 units (PaddyPower) Ian Craney, Accrington (v Northampton), 54%, 3/1, 193 units (PaddyPower) Shaun Wallley, Southport (v Eastbourne), 63%, 21/10, 226 units (Bet365) Gonzalo Higuan, Real Madrid (v Gijon), 63%, evens, 130 units (BoyleSports) Rydell Poepon, De Graafschap (v BAC Breda), 48%, 9/5, 95 units (Unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Missed one - hope it doesn't count as after eventing as he hasn't scored yet! Adam Le Fondre, Rotherham (v Morecambe), 70%, 11/10, 213 units, (Boylesports) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Only Craney came in, but at a big price. Althoguh the day made a loss, I'm pleased the system picked him up. Sunday: Pablo Osvaldo, Espanyol (v Racing Santander), 54%, 37/19, 151 units (Unibet) Filipe Caicedo, Levante (v Malaga), 71%, 11/5, 289 units (Unibet) Joesba Lorente, Real Sociadad (v Hercules), 48%, 6/5, 23 units (Unibet) Andreas Granqvist, Groningen (v VVV Venlo), 48%, 14/5, 147 units (Unibet) Tim Matavz, Groningen (v VVV Venlo), 55%, evens, 50 units (Unibet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version A lot of voids on Sunday, which is a little fortunate as I think one of the bigger voids was wrong on Oddschecker. Wins this weekend: Craney, Osvaldo, Gronqvist Losses: Ambrose, Cureton, Le Fondre, Whalley, Poepon That's three from eight (38%), yield 39% for the weekend. Overall strike rate 65 from 174 (37%) Overall yield 22,936 returned from 21,722 staked (6%). I'm still cursing a bad January and Feruary (all other months have been in credit), but at least I'm winning by more than inflation and my 1,000 unit bank has more than doubled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Monday's: Heider Helgusson, QPR (v Sheffield United), 48%, 6/4, 66 units (Bet365) Adel Taarabt, QPR (v Sheff Utd), 50%, 7/5, 71 units (PaddyPower) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Both Monday's failed. it's frustrating picking two from the same team, have the team score three, and neitrher get on the scoresheet! Tuesday: Sam Winnall, Burton (v Northampton), 54%, 15/8, 147 units (BoyleSports) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Kettering), 54%, 5/4, 86 units (Corals) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Sam Winnall, Burton (v Northampton), 54%, 15/8, 147 units :@(BoyleSports) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Kettering), 54%, 5/4, 86 units (Corals) void Saturday only picks up three: Glenn Murray, Brighton (v Sheffield Wednesday), 50%, 110/10 22 units (General) Chris Wood, Brighton (v Sheffield Wednesday), 48%, 6/4, 66 units (PaddyPower) Lloyd Owusu, Luton (v Southport), 54%, 6/5, 78 units (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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