Flat Racing 18th of September

[Aidymac]

Stratton Banker - Wolverhampton 6:20 I feel this horse has a huge chance tomorrow. There is a lot of exposed dead wood in the race i feel and this horse is very progressive and the step back to 5 furlongs from 6 is a huge plus in my opinion. This is a very strong travelling horse and over the 6 furlongs last time out was going very well until it reached the last furlong when it couldnt quicken so the 5 furlongs should be perfect for it tomorrow, it might not even have to come off the bridle in fact.. At Wolverhampton over 5 furlongs with fields of 10 or more horses, low stall positions are much preferred and have a good strike race so this horse is in Stall 3 tomorrow so has a nice inside pitch to work with. On its last race it went as low as 1.11 in running which just shows how well it did travel and it will be going low again tomorrow!! Amazingly the handicapper has not touched the mark it runs off today and that is a huge plus, runs off a very leniant 59 again tomorrow. I expect this horse to travel very well, look a sure winner a furlong out and should have the pace in the final half furlong to get its head up. I dont rate any of the other horses as dangers. £10 e/w or £20 win dependant on price

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 15:20 Ayr Interesting they bring him over here but I do rate Partner very highly and although it's implied he has a bad draw in 6, I reckon the price of 28/1 is far too big and willing to back him EW. Has being very consistent this season, being there or thereabouts (apart from his last run) every time. Willing to put a line through his last run, especially as it may have come just a little too soon. His performance over 5f at Tipperary was an excellent one and on that run, even with a much higher mark today, he'd be bang there. One of Ireland's top claiming jockeys rides which is a positive and Marnane has been immense all season. Tough race but at this price I'm not willing to let this one go. 1pt EW @ 28/1 Paddy Power BOG (5 places) Sorry, have very little internet access so had to make it brief!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 3:20 Ayr: Noverre To Go 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Bet365 & Redford 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Boylesports (Both 12345) Noverre To Go's last two runs have been very creditable and if he can reproduce either of those he could go close. At Royal Ascot he ran as well as any on the far side when the main action was under the stands rail. In fact the stands rail seemed the place to be during the Royal meeting. Then in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood Noverre To Go was again on the far side, when the action was in the centre. Drawn 20 he should be bang with the high drawn action. Today he also has a big turn round at the weights with Evens And Odds particularly when you add in Ross Atkinson's claim. Redford is harder to assess. He has a poor strike rate yet looks very interesting bearing in mind David Nicholls's record in the race and with Frankie booked. Redford finished in front of Evens And Odds at Haydock over 6 furlongs in May and reopposes on better terms here. The winner that day Prime Defender went on to win a Group 2 next time out. His last run at Chester was encouraging and on his third run for his new trainer could be primed for this. 3:40 Newbury: Astrophysical Jet 3pts win 9/2 Bet365 Astrophysical Jet looks to have a lot going for her in this Group 3. She is a sprinter on the up, a filly in form and handled by a trainer whose horses are running well. Astrophysical Jet may just have benefited from the run of the race and the best ground on the stands side at the Curragh last time, however there is no doubt she took full advantage and was an impressive winner. Her previous run behind Borderlescott at Goodwood looks solid too, and a reproduction of those efforts will make her hard to beat.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 15:55 Ayr Zero Money has progressed really well for Roger Charlton this year, winning two handicaps and placing in one from 5 runs. The gelding is still lightly raced and is sure to still be on the upgrade. His progression may have been halted LTO as it seemed his stamina was stretched a bit over the mile trip at Ffos Las in his last run. As a result of this he has been dropped back to a more suitable trip of seven furlongs today, a trip in which he has won twice over. His last win came at Leicester where he beat Rio Cabolo by 2 and three quarter lengths and he has since won in a handicap since off the same mark. He also beat a good yardstick in Santefisio at Goodwood in his previous race. The 4th and 7th place from that race has went on to win since to boost the form slightly. Zero Money is now 6lbs higher than his last win but due to the fact he is likely to still be progressing I feel he is more than capable of winning off a career high mark today. Is likely to have competition for the lead today which is my only concern considering he has made all in his last two wins although he has been ridden in behind the leaders previously and that was the manner he was rode to victory when he broke his maiden tag so it will be interesting to see how Steve Drowne rides him today. 1pt win Zero Money @ 10/1 (Stan James - B0G)

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 1.45 Newmarket Kuanyao could prove hard to beat here, he hasnt looked back sincing winning handicap at lingfield last october and has since won 4 more handicaps, and clearly continues to improve up another 8lb for latest win but he put in a massive display to suggest that could easily be defied, has since been given a break since and does go well fresh and does stay further than this so ground conditions didnt ought to cause too much concern. 0.5pt e/w kuanyao 7/2 sj 5.15 Newmarket Clockmaker looks a frsutrating sort and as though he may not win as many races as he has potential too. He ran as though amiss on penultimate start but bounced straight back last time out at Kempton in the London Mile handicap he was given a shockig ride by Detori, and when the race was over the race was all over but he was running on very strongly in the finish gets to run off same mark today and has run well on turf in the past last year. 0.5pt e/w clockmaker 6/1 bet365 2.00 Newbury I am happy to take 3/1 about Easy Ticket all day long he looked a real smart prospect who could be destined for better things a 9lb rise is fair considering the style he won the race, the form has taken a few knocks none more so than the 2nd flopping today at Ayr but like I said he looked a class above most of them. 1pt win Easy Ticket 3/1 vc (price taken last night see personal thread) 2.15 Ayr Still not happy to give up on Tiddliwinks yet, he has bags of ability and has been significantly unlucky in draw/type of ride/unlucky in running this season in big field handicaps but today he has the perfect draw in stall 24 which could prove vital. Drying ground could also be important and has been strong in most markets this season to suggest he is working well at home and runs off the same mark as one of his best efforts this season last time out when 4th 2 1/4l behind poets place in Portland last time out and could be well handicapped. 1pt e/w tiddliwinks 10/1 sj (price taken last night see personal thread) 3.20 Ayr Another one at the top of the market for me rather unoriginal but is another that I have followed all season and had threatened to be something special since landing an AW maiden in very good style, landed a bit of a touch at Newcastle perhaps favoured slightly by the track bias that day but even so won well and proved that was no fluke by following up with a good second to Even and Odds off a 9lb higher mark up another 5lb for that effort but still relatively lightly raced and certainly open to more improvement. Sanders keeps the ride and is getting on well with the horse. Well drawn in stall 25. 0.5pt e/w johnny mudball 8/1 hills (price taken last night see personal thread) 5.30 Catterick Tislaam has taken a real step forward since swtiching yards running away with a usual weak affair on the AW but followed up in a slightly better apprentice handicap under a penalty last time out, turned out quickly again without penalty and is ridden by a useful 5lb claimer which puts him 5lb below last winning mark and looks hard to beat with yard in reasonable form at the moment! 1pt win tislaam (non runner) All Weather (evening) 5.45 Wolverhampton Severall regulars in the lineup none more so than Almaty Express and Lithaam who both are capable off their current mark but are both on long losing runs although both have suggest their turns arent too far away soon but Lithaam drawn wide tempers enthusiasm even more. So for me Mansii attracts me clearly better in the AW than turf and was last seen on AW winning over CD, has since ran a couple of ok efforts on turf off a 5lb higher mark dropped 2lb for those efforts and could well be well handicapped if AW has desired affect again and low draw helps. 0.25pt e/w mansii 7/1 bet365 6.20 Wolverhampton Hard to see past Catherines Call she looked a filly going places in handicaps when winning 3 on the bounce in including a handicap off a mark of 76. She finished runner up off a mark of 72 over this course and 7f, up 1lb in weights and takes a step back in trip but didnt ought to cause too much problems in this field and looks the one to beat off a good looking mark again. 1pt win catherines call 4/1 hills 7.50 Wolverhampton War and Peace isnt one to go over board about with a piss poor strike rate but he ran a crack of a race last time out in a claimer when completely missing the break but finished very strongly in 4th, has won off a 7lb higher mark in the summer on turf and just as good on AW. Gannon has been riding well especially for Evans yard at the moment and a career low mark is appealing for an E/W investment having run into places off 10lb+ higher marks last winter! 0.5pt e/w war and peace 16/1 hills

[Tull]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September

3:20 Ayr: Noverre To Go 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Bet365 & Redford 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Boylesports (Both 12345) Noverre To Go's last two runs have been very creditable and if he can reproduce either of those he could go close. At Royal Ascot he ran as well as any on the far side when the main action was under the stands rail. In fact the stands rail seemed the place to be during the Royal meeting. Then in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood Noverre To Go was again on the far side, when the action was in the centre. Drawn 20 he should be bang with the high drawn action. Today he also has a big turn round at the weights with Evens And Odds particularly when you add in Ross Atkinson's claim. Redford is harder to assess. He has a poor strike rate yet looks very interesting bearing in mind David Nicholls's record in the race and with Frankie booked. Redford finished in front of Evens And Odds at Haydock over 6 furlongs in May and reopposes on better terms here. The winner that day Prime Defender went on to win a Group 2 next time out. His last run at Chester was encouraging and on his third run for his new trainer could be primed for this.

Both of these feature on my shortlist from a trends perspective will also be going 1pt ew on both got 28/1 earlier on Noverre and 20/1 Redford. I'm also going to put Damika up as an e/w shout had a few of these behind when winning at Ripon and hopeful that Donny was just a hiccup. best price in various places is 50/1 0.5pts e/w

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September Ayr 14:15 - Tiddliwinks @ 8/1 William Hill (bog) Very consistent in recent runs with little reward, has a very good draw in stall number 24 today and I think she may get rewarded for consistent efforts. Runs off the same mark so every chance. No excuses today. 14:45 - Rimth @ 15/8 William Hill (bog) Last two runs have looked really good and has the chance to score here, both effrots have come over 6 furlongs which she runs over today. It is not an easy race by any means, lots of possible improvers in this but I feel Rimth has the form in the bag and probably will still come on for her last couple of runs, I expect her to go one better than the 2nd lto. 15:20 - Jonny Mudball 8/1 Betfred (bog) Lovely draw in stall 25, been impressive in recent handicaps in big fields, has not been out the first two in last four runs. Seb Sanders has given the horse two good rides and continues in the saddle. Newmarket 16:40 - Classic Colori @ 33/1 Stan James (bog) Potential was there for everyone to see last season, hasn't quite lived up to that in recent runs but he is still worth following off these massive prices, I like the step upto 10 furlongs here and feel he could enjoy this trip, down 2lb in the handicap and could make a better effort.

[punterpete]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 1.40 Ayr Raucous Behaviour Win @ 11/4 Stan James Won maiden a Brighton well enough in the end. Should improve for that run and will be suited by todays course and step up in trip. 2.15 Ayr Favourite Girl ew @ 40/1 Stan James Thebes ew @ 50/1 Stan James Favourite Girl -Been in decent form this season with visor fitted. Gone up in the weights for wiinning three times recently but can still be competitive today. Thebes - Ran well last time out at York, is well handicapped today and should run better than he did in this last year. 3.05 Newbury Island Sunset ew @ 40/1 Bet365 Very lightly raced and certainly knows how to win after being succesful in first four starts spread over 3 seasons. Only win on turf came at Haydock on good ground over an extended mile. Just think that this one will click one day and can win at tis level. 3.10 Catterick Cathedral Spires win @ 6/1 Stan James Got off the mark at Thirsk in July and not disgraced last time out. Step up in trip should suit. 3.20 Ayr Quest For Success ew @ 28/1 Bet365 Damien ew @ 40/1 Bet365 Quest For Success - Course and distance winner and can be forgiven poor performance last time out. Well drawn and conditions to suit. Damien - Ran well last time out at Doncaster when finishing fourth to Irish Heartbeat. Trained by Barry Hills and Ridden by Robert Winstone I am sure this one is capable of winning a big handicap and with the high draw maybe this could be his day.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September Dazinski 3.30 Newmarket 20-1 SportingBet (EW) Most of the other bookies go between 12-1 and 14-1 and that seemed like generous odds. This has been noted a while back and mentioned in my notebook thread: Quote:

Dazinski If you look back through this horses form you'll see it has been very unlucky on a few occasions, hampered at York last time out and never in the race, not given a clear run at Ascot, eased when beaten at Newmarket giving a false look to that race when it was last. I backed it at York under Daryll Holland and he held it up well and then started making progress late on but had to weave in and out of gaps and just failed to get up and deny Wicked Daze. That one had form with Dirar and Dirar went on to win the Ebor at York in August. It ran again at York but Ted Durcan never gave it a chance, holding it up too long without making any headway. Needs a marathon trip and entered in the Caesarewitch, currently 33-1.

Todays race is a Caesarewitch trial and Dazinski is fairly weighted off a mark of 87, only 1lb higher than its last win. Ran well at York under Holland and was a bit unlucky at facing a wall of horses but was last off the bridle, travelled really well and then had to weave in and out to grab 2nd place. I don't think the 2m2f trip will hold any problems and feel this horse may have been given this kind of price based on the no show last time out. RP analysis make it sound like the horse flopped but it was never even put in the race by Durcan. No ground problems and ran well in a big field before (15 runners today), the only concern was that I felt Newmarket favours more prominent horses but more so in races over a shorter trip, the jockey has 2m to get it into contention and it is likely to be coming late, running down beaten horses. Rigidity 4.40 Newmarket My notes:

Rigidity Stepped up from 1m to 1m2f and has won on soft and good to firm and placed on good. Form includes a 2nd to Dandino and it was also 2nd to Arlequin at York when i started following it. Nabbed on the line that day and then put up 10lb by the handicapper and ran badly next time out at Goodwood. Back to winning ways on Friday when it was dropped 3lbs to a rating of 86 but made a mockery of that rating and won with ease by 3 and a half lengths, coming in for support all day and had an SP of 6-4 when 11-4 was available early on in the day. Clearly a very useful sort and looks better when prominent or at least racing in a handy position. Only finished 8th at Goodwood but was held up in 9th place that day so looks to want to be up with the pace. Entered at Newbury on 18th September.

9-2 and 5-1 available today with most bookies, looks the class horse in the field and I was surprised to get such a decent price. Only ran 8 days ago so must have come out of that race well, definitely race fit and striking while the iron is hot so to speak. Runs off 95 today and only a matter of time before it is out of handicaps. Distance winner and no ground concerns, 2nd on good to Dandino. Listed/group horse in a handicap, should be too good for this lot. Also been following Rimth, which runs at Ayr but avoided it at 15-8, did not feel that represented any value.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September Silver~ Two win bets on ADVANCED 16/1 PP who is running into form & SEA OF LEAVES SJ 20/1 SJ good run lto and should be there abouts again today. Two E/W bets paying 5 places on SONNY RED 33/1 SJ who is very well in on best form and is overpriced & ABLE MASTER 40/1 SJ much better than shown so far, for new yard and could surprise. Gold~ Three big fat ones in this all e/w and all BOG and paying 5 places. BARNEY McGREW 80/1(160 on BF taken) SJ ran a cracker in this last year just got touched off. Claimer on which will help the cause has to be backed at that astounding price! ARGINAL 50/1 PP (over 100 on BF) has been running well in the main this year and can go well in this at a price and do better than 13th place last year. NOVERRE TO GO 25/1 BET 365 Threatening to win one of these big races. High enough mark but claimer helps. 5.00 Two take the eye here Irish trained RAIN RUSH 28/1 E/W BET 365 who is a lot better than the two duck eggs to its name suggest and is overpriced by Bet 365 IMO. Tom Tate is a yard i like and BALCARCE NOV 16/1 E/W PP is only a lb higher when gaining only win just over a year ago and i think will be wound up for this.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 3.05 NEWBURY Two unfancied horse for me TARTAN GIGHA around 40/1 or 50/1 with the bookies but available at 150 (i've taken 160) 0n BF no dosh around for it at all, yet i think it is a really decent sort in these C2 handicap's. A bit of a question mark weather it fully see out a 1m 2f but i'll take a chance at the price. RED MERLIN 33/1 E/W PP another one not being supported and could well go off bigger but on best form has a chance and is now back on last winning mark.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September my trends are in the Gold cup thread - ended up with Evens and odds 18/1, Genki 16/1 and Hitchens 40/1 against the field. I got bigger on Betfair for win odds only lots of others races to contend with today, here are some whose trainers are worth following at these tracks 2.20 Newmarket Marywell Gosden's form has been unbelievable the last 2 weeks with 16 winners in 53 races. Last week was about 50% SR. 3.30 Newmarket Lasy Hestia Tregoning doesnt get in the news much these days but this one has won 3 from 4 this season, only up 3lb for that last win and can be in the shake up again today 4.40 Newmarket Ridigity Cecil has a decent strike rate here and now this one has a win under its belt should be followed until beaten, note for next year also. 3.40 Newbury Beyond desire This one was in my flat diary and won 1st time up, gets the 3yo allowances today and has a squeak ew

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September RED MERLIN 3.05 Newbury. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find best form again, but drops to a mark that can see him go close if he does. Handles good and a bit softer and the trip fine, so at big odds would be worth a bet.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September TAKING STOCK 3.25 Listowel. Place Lay. Done quite well over hurdles, but now goes chasing which is a completely different ball game. Appears to be the type to need plenty of time over the bigger obstacles, so in a wide open and race and being around the 4/6 mark to place, I'd much rather be a layer than a player, irrespective of the end result.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September SIMENON 3.30 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to prove himself over this trip, but with being dropped in the weights and with knowing he goes on this ground, I'd take the chance at around 16/1 (exchanges). Could improve well for the trip and that should then see him go very close. Liam Keniry no mug and so should get the pace of the race correct.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September FURY 4.50 Newbury. Place Lay. Debutant for Willie Haggas, and although the fact Kieren Fallon rides suggests he's ready to go, I 'll still be surprised if he doesn't come on quite a bit from this run. Been backed in to around 5/2 which is terribly short in context, so with racing against plenty of unknown quantities that are mostly expected to pay their ways, I'd be a place layer at the current 4/7.

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September Place Lays @ Wolverhampton (Betfair's SP) 18:20 - Royal Loyal PLACE LAY Has been tried over this C&D in last three starts, 2nd of 3 the runs was his best when finishing 5th, didn't continue that form lto and has just looked held. A few lb off his back tonight but will need alot of improvement on recent runs. 18:50 - Sweet Gale PLACE LAY Likely to be quite short for a place but I think this really is her minimum trip and acts better over a furlong longer, she's been running ok without troubling the judge but I think there are more well suited horses to this C&D than this one and may get edged out the places. 19:20 - Bathwick Scanno PLACE LAY Horse may attract money being from Evans stable but weakened over this C&D on both starts, would of thought they may drop this one in trip but running over it again and I feel the end result may be the same, fading in the final furlong. 19:50 - Fitz PLACE LAY Two good effrots recently with a 1st and a 2nd, up another 2lb for that effort lto plus is changing from Kempton's polytrack to Wolverhampton. I think his good run may end today against horses who have shown strong C&D form in recent runs, I've stuck with Just Timmy Marcus for a long time and feel he'll go well again here. 20:20 - Cuban Piece PLACE LAY Tom Dascombe's horse has been beaten fairly enough on last two runs and although this looks a very weak maiden I feel he'll be held again. Race looks between the Godolphin newcomer and Gosden's and with this one around even money to place your basically taking that against the other 5 runners. I think Chanon's should be the other favourite to place with 3 runs so far and getting better. 20:50 - Perfect Chi PLACE LAY Noted this one as a potential back NTO but really don't like the step up in trip for this one and can't understand it to be honest. Has acted better over 6/7f throughout her runs and showed lto that maybe the step down might be a better option, on that basis I can't be having her in this.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September

3:20 Ayr: Noverre To Go 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Bet365 & Redford 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Boylesports (Both 12345) Noverre To Go's last two runs have been very creditable and if he can reproduce either of those he could go close. At Royal Ascot he ran as well as any on the far side when the main action was under the stands rail. In fact the stands rail seemed the place to be during the Royal meeting. Then in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood Noverre To Go was again on the far side, when the action was in the centre. Drawn 20 he should be bang with the high drawn action. Today he also has a big turn round at the weights with Evens And Odds particularly when you add in Ross Atkinson's claim. Redford is harder to assess. He has a poor strike rate yet looks very interesting bearing in mind David Nicholls's record in the race and with Frankie booked. Redford finished in front of Evens And Odds at Haydock over 6 furlongs in May and reopposes on better terms here. The winner that day Prime Defender went on to win a Group 2 next time out. His last run at Chester was encouraging and on his third run for his new trainer could be primed for this. 3:40 Newbury: Astrophysical Jet 3pts win 9/2 Bet365 Astrophysical Jet looks to have a lot going for her in this Group 3. She is a sprinter on the up, a filly in form and handled by a trainer whose horses are running well. Astrophysical Jet may just have benefited from the run of the race and the best ground on the stands side at the Curragh last time, however there is no doubt she took full advantage and was an impressive winner. Her previous run behind Borderlescott at Goodwood looks solid too, and a reproduction of those efforts will make her hard to beat.

well done mate, quality stuff today, 2 really good winners

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September

Silver~ Two win bets on ADVANCED 16/1 PP who is running into form & SEA OF LEAVES SJ 20/1 SJ good run lto and should be there abouts again today. Two E/W bets paying 5 places on SONNY RED 33/1 SJ who is very well in on best form and is overpriced & ABLE MASTER 40/1 SJ much better than shown so far, for new yard and could surprise. .

sonny red just beaten in the silver cup mate well done:ok my dad has followed it all season advanced not far away either

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September 8.50 Wolverhampton A 9f Class 5 handicap here on the sand, the field reduced to 11 following 2 NR's. Confined to 3yo's, this could easily go to one of the lesser exposed types and the fav, Snow Magic, is one such sort with only 3 runs on the board. However, this is its AW debut so 9/2 looks a bit tight to be getting involved in. The one I prefer is South African Gold. Only 7 career starts with no wins yet but I expect improvement here. Ignore it's 3 turf runs, this one is clearly better suited to the AW and has bits & pieces of form that indicate a win is just around the corner. Ignoring its AW debut last Nov where 6f was too sharp, this horse has since finished 4-3-3, the first of those back in Dec when finishing really well over 7f where it looked all over in need of these extra 2f. Followed that with a 3rd of 4 over this C&D but the small field didn't suit and the 2 that beat it looked good types. Had 2 runs in May on turf before comeback on AW 17 days ago, a promising run finishing 3rd of 11 over 7f at Lingfield. Stayed on very well that day after being pushed along some way out. Surely would have been vying for the win in another furlong, so this step up in trip will suit. The winner of that race has gone in again so the race looks a solid benchmark. Mark remains unchanged and on the balance of that run, with the horse stripping fitter, a big effort is expected tonight. South African Gold (7/1 Coral BOG)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September

well done mate' date=' quality stuff today, 2 really good winners[/quote'] Thanks very much Bowles, and your trend horses went well too :ok ....and to Tull - you'll be in the pay out queue. Bit rare for me lately....

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 18th of September Fantastic stuff today Steve :clap