Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups ( 2011 Edition)

[Tedthewolf]

Three cracking handicaps this Fri/Sat to pick the bones out off. All thoughts, trends and selections etc in here:ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bonze Cups GOLD CUP WINNER 1986 TO PRESENT YEAR/WINNER/AGE/WEIGHT/JOCKEY/TRAINER/DRAW/PRICE/TIME 1986 Green Ruby 5 8-11 John Williams Toby Balding 17 25/1 1:10.60 1987 Not So Silly 3 7-10 Gary Bardwell Alan Bailey 4 12/1 1:15.29 1988 So Careful 5 7-07 Nicky Carlisle Jack Berry 6 33/1 1:14.54 1989 Joveworth 6 8-00 Jimmy Fortune Mike O'Neill 6 50/1 1:14.92 1990 Final Shot 3 8-02 John Lowe Peter Easterby 8 12/1 1:13.80 1991 Sarcita 3 8-10 Brett Doyle David Elsworth 18 14/1 1:09.36 1992 Lochsong 4 9-00 Francis Arrowsmith Ian Balding 28 10/1 1:15.51 1993 Hard to Figure 7 9-06 Ray Cochrane Ron Hodges 8 12/1 1:09.05 1994 Daring Destiny 3 8-00 Jason Tate Karl Burke 29 18/1 1:14.61 1995 Royale Figurine 4 8-09 Darryll Holland M. Fetherston-Godley 27 8/1 1:11.11 1996 Coastal Bluff 4 9-10 Jimmy Fortune David Barron 28 3/1 F 1:09.54 1997 Wildwood Flower 4 9-03 Dane O'Neill Richard Hannon 24 14/1 1:11.64 1998 Always Alight 4 8-07 John Egan Karl Burke 8 16/1 1:16.12 1999 Grangeville 4 9-00 Kieren Fallon Ian Balding 17 11/1 1:11.16 2000 Bahamian Pirate 5 8-00 Adrian Nicholls David Nicholls 7 33/1 1:13.47 2001 Continent 4 8-10 Darryll Holland David Nicholls 22 10/1 1:09.70 2002 Funfair Wane 3 9-03 Adrian Nicholls David Nicholls 16 16/1 1:11.76 2003 Quito 6 8-06 Tony Culhane David Chapman 10 20/1 1:09.90 2004 Funfair Wane 5 8-06 Paul Doe David Nicholls 8 33/1 1:16.15 2005 Presto Shinko 4 9-02 Seb Sanders Richard Hannon 2 12/1 1:12.45 2006 Fonthill Road 6 9-02 Paul Hanagan Richard Fahey 6 16/1 1:12.70 2007 Advanced 4 9-09 Jamie Spencer Kevin Ryan 22 20/1 1:12.91 2008 Regal Parade 4 8-10 William Carson, Jr. David Nicholls 20 18/1 1:15.48 2009 Jimmy Styles 5 9-02 Frankie Dettori Clive Cox 15 14/1 1:11.35 A good chance 2007 winner Advanced will get in and at 40/1 would have a good e/w chance after a much improved run lto.

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bonze Cups will be starting my trends again this week with both the Silver cup and Gold cup to start off Possibly will get them up by Thursday but the draw is needed before i post the final version

[StuSimmy]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Was considering going to Ayr on the Saturday but decided against it for various reasons, still looking forward to the big races though as always. Won't start looking until around Wednesday I'd imagine.

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Poet's Place will be winning the Gold Cup. Got 7's for a max bet, now best priced 11/2. Weehoo!

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

Poet's Place will be winning the Gold Cup. Got 7's for a max bet' date=' now best priced 11/2. Weehoo![/quote'] and your reasons are, ????? :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

Poet's Place will be winning the Gold Cup. Got 7's for a max bet' date=' now best priced 11/2. Weehoo![/quote'] goes up another 5lb after last weeks win so will be off 101 on saturday, 15lb higher than its haydock win. Are you considering the draw at all as well ?

[Aidymac]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups You cannot really make a proper judgement on the Gold Cup until you get the draw bias!!! Its doing the lottery if you back Poet's Place before the draws are announced as if it gets a bad draw, that 7/1 will turn into 12/1 upwards... It needed every yard of its last race and up in the weights again, cawwwww will have to be some horse to get up even with a good draw!! Best of luck Monterosso though, the Barron has always been kind to you!! :loon

[diamond1924]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups I'm on harry patch at 16s, 14s, 12s and 10s. Ih he wins i,ll be a couple of grand up. :( Would love to go but the lure of the airdrie peterhead game is too strong, i,ll settle for hamilton on sunday instead :)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

I'm on harry patch at 16s, 14s, 12s and 10s. Ih he wins i,ll be a couple of grand up. :( Would love to go but the lure of the airdrie peterhead game is too strong, i,ll settle for hamilton on sunday instead :)

Very best of luck to you. :hope Looks like its going for the silver cup, ''Fri''

[diamond1924]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups All mines were already on for the gold cup, the perils of antepost, thats the peril of antepost :(

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

and your reasons are, ????? :ok

I will have it up on Friday mate, quite busy at the moment. :sad I put up the 7/1 AP bet in my thread. If there's a small bit of cut in the ground I'm severely confident, if there's not I'm still quite confident but I'll delve into it further on Friday evening. :cheers

[diamond1924]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups The rain has been heavy, often coming down sideways (scottish summer weather). Only chance of fast ground if they ashphalt the track.

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Where do you guys get trends and past winners from?

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

Where do you guys get trends and past winners from?

RP.com will have it mate on their card, however i have the results from previous years already. If you google Ayr Gold cup trends , you will get plenty of info :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups I wondered if you guys used something different. Wiki is good but has no prices on it and want to know placed horses. More for Cheltenham really

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Godolphin plans key to Goldie's Hawkeye jockey TRAINER Jim Goldie is waiting on final news of Godolphin’s running plans at Ayr and elsewhere on Saturday as he attempts to find a replacement jockey for the ride on William Hill Ayr Gold Cup second-favourite Hawkeyethenoo. Goldie had expected to be able once again to use the services of Kieren Fallon on board the four-year-old, who is 8-1 for Saturday's big handicap with Paddy Power and Bet365. However Fallon will now head to Newbury instead to ride for Luca Cumani, leaving Goldie hoping that he will be able to book either Frankie Dettori or Ted Durcan. Godolphin have two possible runners left in the Gold Cup as well as eight other entries at Ayr on Saturday. Goldie said: “We are waiting on the boys in blue to decide if they are sending any runners up and if they are available for the ride we will look to get Frankie Dettori or Ted Durcan – we will just have to wait and see.” Think i'll put a line through that one was to short a price for me anyway.

[bowles10]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

I wondered if you guys used something different. Wiki is good but has no prices on it and want to know placed horses. More for Cheltenham really

now that would be telling!! I'll PM you Joe :ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Another big priced one to consider in the Gold Cup is 50/1 shot ARGANIL who was running on behind Poet's Place on Sat 5lb better off with that one and looks like the ground could be soft which is ideal for this horse and certainly worth a second look whatever one of the three races it gets into imo. Will probably be the Gold.

[diamond1924]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Two that i'm keeping an eye on, advanced has taken a while to get in form but last few runs showed he's getting there, and lowther ran well on return last week after a long break, travelled well on what looked very much like a much needed prep

[Truebastion]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups TRENDS All 14 winners ran during the last two months. Ten actually raced during the last two weeks, with three of the four exceptions arriving via Glorious Goodwood. Six Ayr winners were unplaced in the Stewards’ Cup, while two carried penalties after landing a sprint handicap there earlier in the month – 38 other penalty carriers lost here. In fact, 12 last ran at Goodwood, Doncaster or Haydock. Two winners also ran in Doncaster’s Portland, but nine winners of that race flopped here since Lochsong in 1992. 13 were four to six-year-olds – just one three-year-old scored from 67 runners. 13 returned 10/1 to 33/1 since 1997 – only one favourite obliged in 30 years. 13 were males. 12 won over this 6f trip – Regal Parade was one of the exceptions that scored over 7f. 12 carried 9st3lb or less. 12 were officially rated 89-100. 12 won a maximum of three handicaps. Trainer David Nicholls had five winners from 56 runners, while Richard Hannon scored twice; Karl Burke is another to note. FUTURE POINTERS A talented bunch amongst the Hall of Fame that did themselves proud during a long career following Ayr, but from a potential perspective, only three took subsequent Group 1 honours going back to 1987 – Continent, Coastal Bluff and Lochsong. The problem winners faced was being forced into better company as their handicap mark became uncompetitive, although two handled Listed class later that term. Overall, Ayr Gold Cup winners disappointed in the near future and punters may want to think twice about backing them next time. Were Ayr Gold Cup winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs? No – 4 wins from 39 runs returned a loss of -£14.77 to a £1 level stake. Trends are there to be broken but 18 years since a Portland winner did the double, is Poets as good as Lochsong...we will see. Think he will be thereabouts though. Have backed Hawkeyethenoo and Castles in the Air already Ante My top 3 for the tri-cast 1st Hawkeyethenoo 2nd Tajneed 3rd Poets Place

[Aidymac]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Poets Place has been drawn 12!! Not a bad draw but it is on the drift and thats not a good sign when its from the Barron Stable!!

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Barron can hardly dictate the market in the Ayr Gold Cup for God's sake. :lol

[Aidymac]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

Barron can hardly dictate the market in the Ayr Gold Cup for God's sake. :lol

If its drifting it means it isnt being backed!!! Thats how i gathered a market would work!!

[Monterosso]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups There are other horses to back you know...

[Aidymac]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups

There are other horses to back you know...

Yes i know that!!! And Poets Place aint one of them... :rollin

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups The three races have now taken shape and we start with the Bronze tomorrow. I will take three against the field. OLDJOESAID~ Have been following this one and it was well backed lto ran ok. Will have a win bet at around 18's on this well handicaped horse. ETON RIFLES~ Lightly raced horse who is a lot better than last two runs and could well surprise at a massive(40/1 e/w SJ) for shrewd trainer. SAUCY BROWN~ You avoid Dandy's outsiders in these big contests at your peril. Job jockey Franny on top 50/1 or 40's paying 5 places with paddy's is too generous. At the mo i like ADVANCED & SEA OF LEAVES in the Silver Cup and have backed ARGANIL in Gold Cup with PP at 50/1 paying 5 places and they now go bog bu

[Aidymac]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Im going to stick a few quid on Ginger Ted e/w for the Bronze Cup who won its last race nicely and is drawn in Stall 11 which i think is fine as he can choose which way to go or can go up the centre, he has the freedom of finding where it wants to go which can be an advantage. Has a good e/w shout at 33/1 in my opinion. Courageous was staying on very well in its last race so i will have a win bet on it at 6/1. But the one i feel is overpriced is Amenable and Adrian Nicholls has chosen this one ahead of the favourite Courageous, this is a pure out and out battler of a horse and will be tough to pass and looks good for a place at 16/1 another e/w. I will also do the Reverse-forecasts and Combination Tricast

[Aidymac]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups Hope this helps. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 to 6

·Carrying 8-6 to 9-3

·Officially rated 97 or higher

·Run at least 4 times this season

·Ran in last 21 days in a class 3 or better

·Had last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

·Won at class 3 level or higher

·Won over 6F

·Trained by Dandy Nicholls, Richard Fahey or Roger Charlton

·Priced between 10/1 and 20/1

[StuSimmy]

Re: Ayr ~Gold, Silver & bronze Cups 16:30 Ayr - The Bronze Cup I think its really hard to judge where the draw advantage will be in this race but based on last years result, the low draws were favourable. The first 8 home last year were drawn 12 or lower from a total of 24 runners and with stalls 1,2 and 3 all finishing in the first four and the 5th and 4th drawn horses coming in 5th and 6th place so the first 5 drawn were in the first 6 positions. There are so many horses in with chances today and this really is a cracking contest but I am going to side with one of the low drawn horses Jeannie Galloway who will be breaking out of stall number 4. This horse has really thrived since joining the Fahey yard. Did show a bit of promise for her previous trainer in a couple of maiden races with a couple of placed efforts but won over this course and distance in August 2009 on her debut for this yard in a 19 runner maiden. Followed that up with a success in her handicap debut off a mark of 73 at York before being put away for the winter. Made her reappearance at Doncaster over 7 furlongs, this was her first try at the trip and it seemed she needed the run that day as she weakened away around 2 furlongs out. A win at Musselburgh in her next race off a mark of 78 proved that she stayed 7 furlongs. Was then turned out back over 6 furlongs at this course in her next race where she finished a creditable 2nd off a mark of 82. Responded well to pressure by keeping on inside the final furlong but the race was already tied up by then. A rare and disappointing run in Ireland was next before coming back to the UK and winning at Musselburgh once again over 7 furlongs LTO off a mark of 83. Only had 10 runs to date and I believe she is still on the upgrade so can easily defy this mark of 88, whether it be in this big race today or another day. Raised 5lbs for her win at Musselburgh but Lee Topliss takes off 5lbs once which will help ease the weights a bit although she will still technically be 5lb higher than her Musselburgh win since he was on board that day. There are many others in with strong chances today so I'm not going to go through them all but I will be having a small saver on Eton Rifles who is also lightly raced and I believe he is better than the form he has shown so far this season. The horse had a great 2009 by winning twice and placing four times from six races and went up 15lbs in the handicap due to this. Is back down to a mark of 87 which is 5lbs lower than his reappearance this season at Ripon which came over todays trip and was arguably his best run of the season, finished 4/13 off a mark of 92. A return to that sort of form today may seem him sneak into the places or possibly a nice return to the winners enclosure as he will be a lot fitter for this. 0.5pts E/W Jeannie Galloway @ 16/1 (Bet365 - BOG - 5 places 1/4 odds) 0.2pts E/W Eton Rifles @ 40/1 (>Bet365 - BOG - 5 places 1/4 odds) ** Having another 0.25pts E/W on Jeannie Galloway @ 33/1 (Bet365 - BOG)