Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

[FleetFanatic]

OK here it is after all the hype it's bound to be rubbish. Ratings for England, all the way down to Ryman/Zamaretto/Evo-stik Premier leagues. Ratings for Scotland. Ratings for the top divisions in Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Holland, Belgium, Greece, Turkey & Belgium. Surely we can find some winners with all that? There are some changes, both in staking & in bets, but also, we will now only refer to stakes in "points". That way, anybody following this can stake whatever that make a point to be worth. Anyway, some brief introductions to what my plans are now. I will run 3 treble banks. 1 for English Premier down to English Conference (Blue Sq Bet Premier). 1 for all other English & Scottish Leagues. 1 for all those foreign leagues. Every week, when there are enough fixtures/rated teams, there will be a treble. To be in the treble, the odds must be above 1/2 but no higher than evens at bet365. It must be at bet365, I don't care if a 1/2 shot at bet365 is 4/7 elsewhere, overall, this always worked better based on bet365. In the event this is not possible using 30+ rated teams, I will look at other 30+ rated teams with odds above evens, then teams below 30 in ratings order that are above 1/2 in price. I will then shop about for the best odds available. Each treble will be for 10pts - the racthet staking has been dropped, and the banks adjusted accordingly for easy comparison. Only affects the UK Pro bank anyway. So 30pts outlay on the trebles. ********************************************************** Instead of a 7-fold and/or "canadian of trebles", I have now opted for somewhere inbetween. "Canadian of doubles" - Working down the ratings of ALL leagues, the first 10 teams that rate above 1/2 will be taken and placed in alphabetical order (spelling based on the names I have to use in my ratings tool), then I will put the 1st team in group A, the next in group B, until I get to Group E then I put the 6th in group A, etc. We will then have 5 groups A B C D E, each with 2 teams in it & those groups will be permed into 4folds, 6folds, 8folds & 10fold. (Maybe we can land some doubles instead of failed trebles :lol) This stake will be 1pt x 26 bets = 26pts. ********************************************************** Finally, regardless of odds, a one point accumalator on all teams rated 30 or higher. You are free to follow all or part of these bets. I hope I've explained everything in amongst all this waffle. Ratings & bets posted by THURSDAY for weekend matches*, once I've checked that I have posted everything in this post how I intended to. *This was when, in the past, that I had decided that the odds had settled down for the weekend, more or less.

[Machine]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Hope you've got it automated :eek G'luck :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Lol, all the leagues' calculations are automated. :ok Simple copy & paste of results each week & quick selection of fixtures takes care of all that. :dude

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II OK, here's the ratings. Bets will be posted tomorrow.

[Machine]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II :lol at Scots in with amateurs never had them in my ratings gave Celtic and Rangers every week not far off from your top 3 with mine 2 out of 3 top rated old 2 out of 3 with new Cardiff looks like the one to be on :lol

This stake will be 1.5pt x 26 bets = 26pts.

Shouldn't this be 39 or have I missed something

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Yep you're right, I altered the 1.5 from 1 & didn't alter the 26 to 39 :lol Fixed now.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

:lol at Scots in with amateurs

Are you implying that not all Scottish teams are amateur level? :lol I never liked using the Scottish leagues in my "normal" UK treble, so it was either they go in with the amateurs, or in the European..... and seeing as the European already had 8 leagues, amateurs it is. Might give us a treble still when the FA Cup or Trophy rounds are on. ;)

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II I've decided the insurance thing is a lot of pissing about to be honest. Whilst I want to utilise the ratings, I want to keep things simple to post & simple to understand. So I'm going to simply go with the trebles & be done with it. Stakes on other bets will also be adjusted. I'll edit the opening post accordingly. 10pts trebles: BET365 23 Hoffenheim 6/4 19 Toulouse 4/5 19 Montpellier 1/1 PADDY POWER 36 QPR 11/10 31 Cardiff 4/7 26 Bournemouth 4/5 BET365 36 Annan Athletic 8/15 28 Eastleigh 4/6 26 Berwick 6/4 Banks: EURO: -10pts UKPRO: -10pts AM&S: -10pts Canadian of Doubles: Bet365 Group A Annan Athletic 8/15, Eastleigh 4/6 Group B Berwick 6/4, Fleetwood Town 4/5 Group C Bournemouth 4/5, Hoffenheim 6/4 Group D Burnley 4/6, QPR 21/20 Group E Cardiff 4/7, Torquay 8/11 Perm groups ABCDE into 4, 6, 8 & 10 folds - 26bets @ 1pt = 26pts And finally, 1pt acca on all 30+:Blue Square Ajax 1/16 AFC Wimbledon 4/7 QPR 11/10 Cardiff 4/7 Bromley 8/13 Annan 8/15

[Evertonboy]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Could you give a bit more insight into what you use to create these ratings? Thanks

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Calculations are made using formulas pre-defined in an excel spreadsheet, based on current league position, home teams' home form vs away teams' away form for the season & the past 6 games current form, or less if they haven't played 6 games yet. Therefore expect the ratings to be "more shaky" during the first 2 months of the season. I used to do these manually but technology moves on.

[Evertonboy]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Any chance of explaining the formulaes? (obviously without giving away all your hardwork)

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II To explain the formula would be to give the hardwork away? I'll be posting up the ratings every week. :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Well Hoffenheim start the ball rolling with a 2-0 win over Schalke. :ok Here's hoping for a great weekend. :hope

[smw30]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Been reading this for a while, looks like it has alot of potential. What are potential returns if they all won this weekend? Good luck!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II 290 points for the trebles & acca, as for the perm of doubles..... .....well its 479pts for the 10-fold alone. "If" :hope

[muppet77]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Can't wait. Will the automation be worth the effort first time round?!! I make the trebles between 5 and 8 to one and the 6 fold about 12 to 1.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

10pts trebles: BET365 23 Hoffenheim 6/4 :clap 19 Toulouse 4/5 :@ 19 Montpellier 1/1 :@ PADDY POWER 36 QPR 11/10 :clap 31 Cardiff 4/7 :clap 26 Bournemouth 4/5 :clap 59.4 pts returned :ok next UK Pro stake = 24.7pts BET365 36 Annan Athletic 8/15 :@ 28 Eastleigh 4/6 :clap 26 Berwick 6/4 :clap Banks: EURO: -10pts UKPRO: +49.4pts AM&S: -10pts Canadian of Doubles: Bet365 Group A Annan Athletic 8/15 :@, Eastleigh 4/6 :clap Group B Berwick 6/4:clap, Fleetwood Town 4/5 :clap Group C Bournemouth 4/5 :clap, Hoffenheim 6/4 :clap Group D Burnley 4/6 :clap, QPR 21/20 :clap Group E Cardiff 4/7 :clap, Torquay 8/11 :wall Perm groups ABCDE into 4, 6, 8 & 10 folds - 26bets @ 1pt = 26pts 120.19pts returned :nana 94.19pts profit Canadian +/-: +94.19pts :ok And finally, 1pt acca on all 30+:Blue Square Ajax 1/16 :hope AFC Wimbledon 4/7 :clap QPR 11/10 :clap Cardiff 4/7 :clap Bromley 8/13 :wall Annan 8/15 :@

Although the acca died, we have 2 French teams to cheer this evening, and Burnley can land us a 6-fold & 2 extra 4-folds if they win. :hope Damn Scottish football - Annan W2D2L0 v W0D0L4 & then lose at home 0-1! We'll put the Euro flop down to the smaller amount of data available, but all in all, not a bad start. :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Got to love 3 goals in the last 6 minutes from 3-1 down to 4-3 winners. :lol France was awful, but then again, we have less data & lower ratings in the Euro picks. We may have to say in future that if we can't get 3 teams that meet the rules rated above, say 25, then no treble. I don't know. My main bet of preference will always be the UK Pro - they were the leagues I first started these ratings & bets with. Have to say that after failing every week for the past 2/3 seasons with a canadian of trebles, the canadian of doubles pops up with a nice return at the first attempt. Smaller potential returns, but the way forward on the glory bets for sure. See you next week - there are some midweek fixtures, but not enough for these bets. I'll probably post some ratings up though, for interest, as it were.

[smw30]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Nice results. I don't really get the Canadian. Or how to place the bet anyway! Ha. How do you have a Canadian of doubles? I'm using PaddyPower - is it a Bet365 thing only? I'm very confused. :unsure

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II "Canadian" is another name for a super yankee, You do, however, have to place each 4-fold, 6-fold, etc as a separate bet. Whereas a normal super yankee/canadian would have 5 selections, our "5 selections" are in fact 5 doubles, so instead of doubles, trebles, 4-folds & a 5-fold, we actually are going for 4-folds, 6-folds, 8-folds & a 10-fold. A lot of bookmaker sites let you add the 10 teams & then tick/untick the ones you want to include/exclude in each bet, along with ticking "retain selections" before placing the bet, so all the teams remain in the betslip area after each bet is placed. Try it at paddypower, for example, and you'll see it's quite easy to do. :ok Failing that, if you had written this out in a betting shop (obviously with their odds, or even without the odds): Group A Annan Athletic 8/15 , Eastleigh 4/6 Group B Berwick 6/4, Fleetwood Town 4/5 Group C Bournemouth 4/5 , Hoffenheim 6/4 Group D Burnley 4/6 , QPR 21/20 Group E Cardiff 4/7 , Torquay 8/11 Perm groups ABCDE into 4, 6, 8 & 10 folds - 26bets @ 1pt = 26pts The bookmakers should be OK with this.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II And :rollin at Barcelona tonight, that's why I don't do short-priced teams.

[smw30]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Ah right cheers. Think I'll be following this next weekend, or at least keeping a close eye on your selections. Good luck again :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II As for the midweek, the only 15+ are Millwall (21), Chippenham (18) & Stourbridge (17). We certainly won't be having a bet. Please note that next weekend's will not be posted until Thursday night, as Weymouth have a match Thursday as well as Saturday. It probably won't affect anything, but just in case.

[Machine]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II great overall profits there Fleet :dude I prefer singles myself but you keep up the trebles if it works for you :ok Personally I'd ditch the scottish/amateur bets, Saying the footballs not exactly top class is an understatement (more like bingo on legs) :lol How did Bournmouth slip in with a rating in the 20's was it due to price ?

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

great overall profits there Fleet :dude I prefer singles myself but you keep up the trebles if it works for you :ok Personally I'd ditch the scottish/amateur bets, Saying the footballs not exactly top class is an understatement (more like bingo on legs) :lol How did Bournmouth slip in with a rating in the 20's was it due to price ?

And doubles, that doubles perm was a nice profit. AFC Wimbledon were 1/2 at bet365 on Thursday, so were excluded from the treble, as per the rules in the first post. :dude That meant going into the non-30+ ratings - and it was Bournemouth & Burnley next in line, so as always, I go for the better price. No that it really mattered this week as they all won in the top 6 in that section anyway. :ok The less said about Scottish football the better - like I said, it's why they are in with the amateurs. :lol

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II A quick summary of the past weekend's ratings: Including those I choose to ignore due to price: TOP 4 in Europe all won. :ok TOP 6 UK Pro all won. :ok TOP 4 UK Amateur/Scotland - both Bromley & Annan ballsed it up. :lol Not bad, if I do say so myself, although below these were some shockers, especially in Europe! :spank Some interesting ratings developing for the weekend, just need the midweek fixtures to play.....

[Machine]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II got anything for tonights Championship my ratings showing

Swansea	v	Coventry	90.00	BACK	1.80	lads
C Palace	v	Portsmouth	90.00	BACK	2.50	b365

Dont like it when Lads are top odds, In fact dont like betting in the chapionship as a whole.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II

got anything for tonights Championship

As for the midweek, the only 15+ are Millwall (21), Chippenham (18) & Stourbridge (17). We certainly won't be having a bet.

:lol Those 2 you posted don't rate very highly in my scale, but good luck. :ok Got a rough idea what the weekend's will look like, but need tonight's matches especially to get final ratings. (There's also a few wed/thurs for league 1 & some minor leagues.) Only one UK Pro seems to be over 30 - and it's Scottish (gulp) - in with the amatuers it goes. :lol And it looks like the Euro treble will be raiding teams rated below 20. You just don't get the same value as you do with UK matches. :unsure

[Machine]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Think its the low amount of games which brings those two up as I think they are both unbeaten @ home. I just go with what it brings up :lol Should level out over the season :hope. Millwall were top of last years rating method so that must use similar stats to you.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Well the ratings are done, more or less. The Weymouth match CAN affect the ratings of Chippenham Town (due to potential change in league positions), but it won't affect how the bets go. Bet365 seem very slow getting the odds up for the minor leagues, but we'll have them later today I expect - maybe they are waiting for these ratings. :lol Oh and looking at the ratings for Man Utd & Alfreton - if you consider who they are playing in their respective leagues, it highights what I've said before - that my ratings are skewed towards the chance of a home win more than anything. Anyway back thursday evening with the bets.