12X verses Correct Scores

[MHW]

I generally only bet on football in win singles as I believe this offers the best chance of long term success. However, I have been thinking of trying an alternative by dividing my stake between, say six, correct scores in order to boost the returns . For example, Chelsea v Man Utd £6 Win Man Utd or £1 each 0-1,0-2,1-2, 0-3,1-3,2-3 Has anyone tried this as an alternative strategy and what has been the outcome. Even better, if anyone has got any stats on how this would have worked out over last season on any of the divisions that would be great. Thanks in anticipation.

[Lardonio]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Hi, I think the reason that you haven't got any replies on this is that it's hard to provide any stats (or input) for what you describe as you do not really write any rules for your strategy.

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Thanks Lardonio. To give a bit more detail. I will be concentrating on games where I think that the away team may have a slight edge. This should produce better prices on the correct scores. I will always use the same six correct scores as quoted. For example on tonights list: Carlisle v Huddersfield With Hills at the moment Huddersfield are quoted at 2.50. The Correct Score prices are: 0-1 8.50 0-2 13 1-2 9.50 0-3 26 1-3 21 2-3 34 Clearly the Correct Score option will work out better on the higher scores. The 0-3 for Bristol City v Millwall on Saturday was a good example but I don't know what the exact prices were. Any thoughts on the two routes and any possible variations would be welcome. Thanks.

[Datapunter]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Do a search for "Corrct Score" or something like that, there are a few threads from a few seasons ago where people tried this, might be more than 5 years ago though.

[Machine]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Thanks Lardonio. To give a bit more detail. I will be concentrating on games where I think that the away team may have a slight edge. This should produce better prices on the correct scores. I will always use the same six correct scores as quoted. For example on tonights list: Carlisle v Huddersfield With Hills at the moment Huddersfield are quoted at 2.50. The Correct Score prices are: 0-1 8.50 0-2 13 1-2 9.50 0-3 26 1-3 21 2-3 34 Clearly the Correct Score option will work out better on the higher scores. The 0-3 for Bristol City v Millwall on Saturday was a good example but I don't know what the exact prices were. Any thoughts on the two routes and any possible variations would be welcome. Thanks.

the joint combined odds of the scores are 2.41 using the £6 if dutched 0-1 8.50..£1.70 0-2 13.....£1.11 1-2 9.50..£1.52 0-3 26.....0.56p 1-3 21.....0.69p 2-3 34.....0.42p this would give you a return of approx £14.45 any result compared to the £15 backing the win only £6 @ 2.5 leaving the straight bet the obvious winner. Placing £1 on each score gives you an overall loss on the first 3 results compared to the straight win but a better bang for your buck on the last 3 so as Clint Eastwood says "do ya feel lucky". If you back the scores you are in effect backing against the bookie and yourself because if one score wins the others must lose negating the point of backing at the higher score odds at the end of the day its your decision good luck :ok

[ovo.cosmico]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Hi, If I may add something to this discussion, I made a study of the portuguese league (goal average per game 2.5) correct scores for the last 5 years, and I can say that last season, in 240 games only once there was a 2-3 final score. So it's definitely a score to avoid, I would think. It goes like this: 0-1 - 21 games - 8.8% 0-2 - 5 - 2.1% 1-2 - 17 - 7.1% 0-3 - 3 - 1.3% 1-3 - 7 - 2,9 2-3 - 1 - 0.4% These numbers where quite consistent for the previous seasons, with small oscilations. By the way, the last season' game/goal average for the premier was 2,77... :unsure

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Do a search for "Corrct Score" or something like that, there are a few threads from a few seasons ago where people tried this, might be more than 5 years ago though.

Thanks for that. I'll have a dig around and see what I can find.

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

the joint combined odds of the scores are 2.41 using the £6 if dutched 0-1 8.50..£1.70 0-2 13.....£1.11 1-2 9.50..£1.52 0-3 26.....0.56p 1-3 21.....0.69p 2-3 34.....0.42p this would give you a return of approx £14.45 any result compared to the £15 backing the win only £6 @ 2.5 leaving the straight bet the obvious winner. Placing £1 on each score gives you an overall loss on the first 3 results compared to the straight win but a better bang for your buck on the last 3 so as Clint Eastwood says "do ya feel lucky". If you back the scores you are in effect backing against the bookie and yourself because if one score wins the others must lose negating the point of backing at the higher score odds at the end of the day its your decision good luck :ok

Thanks for this. It may be that in the long run the best tactic would be to analyse the yield on each match individually just as you have done. However, I'd still like to work out a formula and this needs a bit more thought. I think that with the six scores I'd have the field well covered as I can't see many teams priced at 2.50 scoring four or more away from home. Based on the yield above it would be tempting to leave out 0-1 to tip the balance towards the correct scores but this is a significant risk. On another line, it may be possible to work something out using just 0-3,1-3 and 2-3 in combination with another market, just a win bet or something in the total goals markets.

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Hi, If I may add something to this discussion, I made a study of the portuguese league (goal average per game 2.5) correct scores for the last 5 years, and I can say that last season, in 240 games only once there was a 2-3 final score. So it's definitely a score to avoid, I would think. It goes like this: 0-1 - 21 games - 8.8% 0-2 - 5 - 2.1% 1-2 - 17 - 7.1% 0-3 - 3 - 1.3% 1-3 - 7 - 2,9 2-3 - 1 - 0.4% These numbers where quite consistent for the previous seasons, with small oscilations. By the way, the last season' game/goal average for the premier was 2,77... :unsure

Thanks. Very interesting, particularly the stat on 2-3. I don't know much about Portuguese football but this conflicts with the impression that I'd got on the lower divisions in this country. I haven't got any stats but I thought that 2-2, 3-2, 2-3 and even 3-3 occurred quite regularly in divs 1 and 2. I'd even thought of covering those scores in singles on all 12 games in division 2 on a saturday. Low stakes, just for fun, but never got around to it.

[Datapunter]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Had a look but can't find anything myself, must be ages ago. From what i recall there was some initial success but not long term.

dividing my stake between, say six, correct scores in order to boost the returns

This is an illusion, dividing the stakes over 6 correct scores wll not boost anything. At best given near perfect markets it will give the same result as win singles. ! at best ! There is nothing inherent to dutching correct scores to do anything to your profit. Whatever you gain if the scores come in you'll lose on the odd occasion you get a match with a score you didn't include. Sorry. You need to add some other form of selectiveness in order to create an advantage. But then you probably lose the relation with win singles and you get a different method or system altogether.

[ovo.cosmico]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Thanks. Very interesting' date=' particularly the stat on 2-3. I don't know much about Portuguese football but this conflicts with the impression that I'd got on the lower divisions in this country. I haven't got any stats but I thought that 2-2, 3-2, 2-3 and even 3-3 occurred quite regularly in divs 1 and 2. I'd even thought of covering those scores in singles on all 12 games in division 2 on a saturday. Low stakes, just for fun, but never got around to it.[/quote'] Hi, sorry to drop again on your thread, with this off topic prose. I would think that, on the long run, if you look at a league with 240 games a season, with a 2.5 goal average per game, the results wouldn't differ much from the one's I got. And, if afterwards you look at the previous seasons and there wasn't much difference on the %... I was surprised. 1-0 was ALWAYS tops, along with 0-0 and 1-1, with over 35% of the total scores, wich I think is a lot (and of course the houses know this). I thought of betting consistently on this 3 scores this season, but I don't have the odds at the time, which I would think would be the better part of the equation... The best I had for 2-3 was 3 in a season, 1.3%. I had two 0's, both on 3-3, 2008/09 and 2005/06 seasons. I'm new to this, but I would think it would be necessary something like 100/1 odds on this scores to find some value there. Cheers :ok

[Machine]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores MHW Go HERE and you can download 16 years worth of results into excel and test them at your leisure :ok

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Had a look but can't find anything myself, must be ages ago. From what i recall there was some initial success but not long term. This is an illusion, dividing the stakes over 6 correct scores wll not boost anything. At best given near perfect markets it will give the same result as win singles. ! at best ! There is nothing inherent to dutching correct scores to do anything to your profit. Whatever you gain if the scores come in you'll lose on the odd occasion you get a match with a score you didn't include. Sorry. You need to add some other form of selectiveness in order to create an advantage. But then you probably lose the relation with win singles and you get a different method or system altogether.

Thanks. I agree that some additional selectiveness is needed. I need to be able to select the most likely matches for 0-3, 1-3 and 2-3. That's what I'm trying to do with the away selections @ around 2.50. Maybe there are some stats somewhere showing the starting win odds on away teams winning by those scores. I could then use that in the selection process.

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

MHW Go HERE and you can download 16 years worth of results into excel and test them at your leisure :ok

Many thanks. Very useful link.

[MHW]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Hi, sorry to drop again on your thread, with this off topic prose. I would think that, on the long run, if you look at a league with 240 games a season, with a 2.5 goal average per game, the results wouldn't differ much from the one's I got. And, if afterwards you look at the previous seasons and there wasn't much difference on the %... I was surprised. 1-0 was ALWAYS tops, along with 0-0 and 1-1, with over 35% of the total scores, wich I think is a lot (and of course the houses know this). I thought of betting consistently on this 3 scores this season, but I don't have the odds at the time, which I would think would be the better part of the equation... The best I had for 2-3 was 3 in a season, 1.3%. I had two 0's, both on 3-3, 2008/09 and 2005/06 seasons. I'm new to this, but I would think it would be necessary something like 100/1 odds on this scores to find some value there. Cheers :ok

If you go ahead with 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1 then good luck but I suspect that the odds will be so low that you may have been better off with a win single.:ok

[Xinakias]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores Following ovo. , I can say that in almost all leagues last 3 years 1-0, 1-1 are the most common scores

[muppet77]

Re: 12X verses Correct Scores

Following ovo. , I can say that in almost all leagues last 3 years 1-0, 1-1 are the most common scores

surely it's about value - where the prices from the bookies will be better than the chance of them cropping up? if they are 'common scores' won't the odds on offer reflect this? the % strike rate will be higher but the yield won't.