Saturday Chases

[whoneedsrio]

Some good sport today over fences at three venues & all have made it through the early inspections. 1.35 Windsor The two wins from two runs L'Ange Au Ciel reappears after almost a year off. This one could be anything, beat Keltic Baird a short head when getting 11lb at Exeter & that one has run well several times since. However around 7/2 is plenty short enough FTO with plenty to prove & I'm going to take this one on with Mondial Jack. The Pipe stable is flying & Timmy Murphy is on top, drops back in trip from his win LTO but has won over two & half miles. Goes on any ground & at 5yo is open to any amount of improvement, not run for 185 days but thats not a worry from this yard. Stan James are going 10/1,thats more than a fair price & I've had a bit on at that. 2.20 Aintree Last years winner Dark Room tries again but his form tailed right off after that win & he fell in the Topham at the Grand National meeting. The one that interests me here is Tipsy Mouse, looks a safe enough jumper despite the one fall at Newcastle in Feb & should be fit for the run at Carlisle 20 days ago. Goes on any ground but the one thing is will he need a bit further? The interesting thing is he was also in the three mile & three furlong Becher Chase but Sue Smith runs him today. Corals were going 11/1 & hes as short as 7's elsewhere, looks like my few quid has scared Corals & they now go 8's but theres still 10/1 elsewhere. 3.00 Huntingdon No Edredon Bleu hes a non runner. If Le Roi Miguel were to find his best form he'd take all the beating, however he's not shown a lot for some time & is passed over. Hand Inn Hand reverts to fences after a pipe opener over hurdles & must go well, however I like Farmer Jack here. Took a right pearler last Saturday in the Paddy Power when looking to be held, I don't think he liked the undulating track at Cheltenham & this flat, right handed track should be more to his liking. I also thought the jockey made a bit too much use of him last week & Andrew Thornton who's won three time on him is up today. Providing the run & fall hasn't taken too much out of him & I don't think philip Hobbs would run him if he thought it had he can go well here. Taken the 9/2 with Sporting Odds. Good luck to all, Rio.

[manckevin]

Re: Saturday Chases Nice write-up there, and good luck with your selections. Time for me to narrow down my Saturday Seven shortlist without my software I use for a lot of stuff (corrupted bloody database) grrr!

[punter66]

Re: Saturday Chases Good luck fellas, i'm on Joe Deane e.w in the 2.20 at Aintree, just a small bet for interest.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Two seconds & an unplaced yesterday. Just for a moment I thought Mondial Jack might get up at Windsor, it looks like he needs three miles+ to show his best. This race reminded me of why I prefer flat racing, there were several nasty falls in the slippery conditions & it looked like Non So had paid the ultimate price from his fall, thankfully he was only winded & got up. When the ban hunting lot have got their way it would not suprise me to see them move on to jump racing. Tipsy Mouse was never going at Aintree & finished well back. The winner Forest Gunner was most impressive, hardly touched a twig in a fine front running display, where next for this one? Farmer Jack ran a sound enough race in second but the winner Le Roi Miguel returned to form in style & is another to note. One of the main things at this game is beating the SP & while I have nothing to collect I'm happy to have got far better odds for all three bets totaling 8.25 points over the starting prices. In the long term this can mean the difference between a profit or loss. Aintree Sunday I like the look of Over the Creek in the 2.10, won nicely at Cheltenham last Saturday & should like this step up to two & half miles. Missed races at Market Rasen & Exeter to go for this which looks a bit harder, stable going well. Only Stan James with prices so far & 7/4 is not stunning, hoping someone will go 2/1. 2.45 National winner Amberleigh House heads the weights & he's won this before, 7lb higher than hes ever won off & while he'll get round there must be others with better chances. Ardent Scout is also a standing dish in this, from the last four runnings hes finished 2413. Races from a mark 3lb lower than when winning this two years ago he must be there abouts. Younger horses don't have a great record in this & the 6yo Double Honour is also a quirky sort who could love or more likely loath these fences, I'll pass on this one. The 7yo Silver Birch looks a better type, jumps well & goes on any ground hes also won over this trip & has a feather weight & Ruby Walsh up, on the shortlist. I also like Native Emperor, progressive last season till the poor run in the Scottish National he also jumps well & if ready FTO can run a big race. Jungle Jinks is another good jumper who should run a fair race, won at three miles round Haydock & Wetherby but I prefer others. At the moment then I'm looking At Sliver Birch & Native Emperor depending on the prices available. I'll update later on any bets placed. Cheers, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Backed both Silver Birch & Native Emperor, 7/1 at Blue Sq & 10/1 Sporting Odds. Over the Creek is as short as 5/4 & 11/8 now that most bookies have their prices out, 7/4 is still the best at Stan James & I'm on at that price. Cheers, Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Saturday Chases One im liking here is TAKAGI @ 10/1 sporting odds.

[Trevor1]

Re: Saturday Chases Well done, some nice winners

[whoneedsrio]

Sunday results Two winners today. Bit suprised when Over the Creek opened at 15/8, went off at 7/4 & did the job nicely on pretty desperate ground & this is one to keep an eye on. Beat the SP again on both runners in the Becher Chase. Ruby Walsh rode a peach of a race keeping just enough in hand for the run in, Amberleigh House ran a fine race just out of the money too. A good day all round, Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Saturday Chases nice one rio :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Saturday 27th November I've just spent the thick end of an hour on a post only to hit the wrong button & I've lost the lot :sad I'm not going to do it all again so to sum up. The Hennessy looks a leave alone race to me. In the 'Fighting Fifth' I like Intersky falcon & have taken the 100/30 at Sporting Odds. In the 3.15 at Newbury I'm on Europa at 7/1 with Blue Sq & Mondial Jack at 10/1 with Sporting Odds. cheers, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Europa ran best of the two in the chase finishing third, Mondial jack folded up rather quickly & this probably came too soon from his previous race. In the 'Fighting Fifth' Intersky Falcon ran ok & according to time test in todays RFO actually clocked a decent time. This makes the performances from the front three look rather good, the winner Harchibald cruised up to the lead at the last & won without breaking sweat. Inglis Drever & Royal Shakespeare should both come on for the run but the winner looked to have any amount in hand. The plan is to go to Kempton or Leopardstown next & the Champion hurdle. I don't get too involved with ante post betting but if he wins his next race in anything like the same sort of style the the 7/1 for the Champion Hurdle with Coral could look a big price, hes already as low as 4/1 with other firms. He'd get the strong pace he needs at Cheltenham & the ground at the festival these days usually rides good so I've had a bit of the 7's & I await with interest Harchibalds next run. Cheers, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Saturday December 4th Some fine sport again today, the big race is the Tingle Creek & this should be a great race. I hope Moscow Flyer gets round & we get the trussle with Azertyuiop we'd like to see. Well Chief won't be far away either I think & this looks a race to watch & savour rather than bet in. Iv'e had a bet on One Knight in the Rehearsal Chase at Chepstow. Not seen since chipping a bone in the Hennessy when falling at the first a year ago. Time off is not a worry as this one has a great record on seasonal reappearences. Sun Alliance winner in 2003 if he's to head for the Gold Cup then he needs to see off this lot. Big worry is his jumping, he's made mistakes in the past but has won over these fences, needs to get over the first few & once he's warmed up he should be ok. Pizarro misses Chepstow to go to Haydock & I've had a bit on this one as well. Sir Rembrandt runs here & will not go right handed again as they're putting this down as the excuse for the poor run at Exeter LTO. Myself I think he needs more time between races & he's only had 15 days here, if he ran to his best form tho' he'd take some beating. The rest look a bit of an in & out lot & Pizarro who's another who goes well fresh can take this. Finally I've had a small bet on Granit D'Estruval in the last at Sandown. Irish Grand National winner who needs to run well to keep his handicap mark up to get in the National at Aintree. Ad Hoc is the course specialist but Granit gets 16lbs off him & he should give me a run for my money. Good luck to all, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases The Tingle Creek lived up to the billing, the roar from the crowd when Moscow Flyer jumped to the front at the last in the back straight said it all. Lets hope the front three all get to Cheltenham in March for the rematch. One Knight made a fine reappearence & put up a nice front running display. It will be interesting to see where they go next, he would have a big weight in the Welsh National & might be better with a nice break till January as he goes better fresh. Pizarro was never jumping & the pre race interveiw with the trainer did nothing for confidence either, "I forgot to enter him for the Irish race & we had to come here", as he was entered at Chepstow as well it look like an expensive weekend for the owner. Granit D'Estruval got to about half way before unseating the jockey, ah well. If I'm to carry on this thread I'd better start sticking in the results to date. Cheers for now, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Saturday 1st January A pretty ordinary sort of a day for a Saturday & a New Year. Fontwell stage their big race of the year ( get it in early ) & a young progressive type is whats needed here. Brave Spirit fits the bill, twice a winner on this figure of eight track, including LTO by 21l over two furlongs shorter this 7yo is clearly going the right way & despite a 10lb rise must run a big race. Eva so Charming is another 7yo who will love the trip & will be doing it's best work at the finish. Most of the others have been around the block a few times & I'll take these two against the field. At Cheltenham the only race to take my eye is the 3.20 Supreme Prince & Europa are closely matched on Newbury form & Europa has run a good third over todays C&D since in a better looking race than this, there won't be much between them today. Upgrade, Redemption & Scots Grey all have ability but also questions to answer. Of the rest Spring Grove should run well but looks a bit exposed. Whereareyounow could go well but lacks a run & would need to improve on form so far. Caracciola had a pipe opener over hurdles but looks a bit high in the weights. Kandjar D'Allier has won the last two but will need to jump better tha LTO at Windsor to figure here. One I like is Joly Bey who showed a return to form here LTO over 3m 1f & this drop back in trip will suit. All in all not a day to get to involved too heavily & I've had a small bet in an effort to land a double. I've taken Brave Spirit & Eva so Charming at Fontwell & Supreme Prince, Europa & Joly Bey at Cheltenham. 2 x 3 = 6 doubles, the best odds were all at Stan James, 3/1 & 7/1 the first two & 13/2, 13/2 & 8/1 the others. An outlay of 30 points would return 210 points if sucessful. Happy New Year to all, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases I've neglected to update this thread from the last post on New Years day so I'd better do that to start with, Brave Spirit won the Fontwell race but none of the three at Cheltenham could land the bet. I've been thinking how to record the rest of the results & have decided to switch to stating my bets as placed from today. I don't bet to level stakes, it varries & I also try for a multiple bet as with the last one. To date though I've backed 17 horses in 12 races & produced four winners. The prices taken were 7/4, 7/1, 2/1 & 5/2. The SP's were 7/4, 4/1 9/4 & 2/1. So to today. 3.10 Warwick The ground here is likely to be very testing & this could turn into a slog. Grattan Lodge is on the upgrade & goes on heavy. Six of his nine wins have come going right handed at Carlisle which is a stiff track but he's also won on left handed courses at Sedgefield & Newcastle. Has shown he can battle at the end of a race, needs a career best run here but must go well. The other one I like here is L'Aventure who also handles heavy ground. Came from well behind to finish fourth, beaten four lengths over this trip on heavy LTO in the Welsh National & gave the classy One Knight a fight also at Chepstow the time before. The big plus is the exellent Ruby Walsh is on top today & this would be my main fancy of the day. 3.25 Kempton Royal Hector must go well here but is a very skinny price for this type of race. The two I like are Mr President & Say What You See. Mr President comes from last years winning stable, as hacked up on his last two starts both at Leicester & could be chucked in here off just 125. The form might not be up to much but it looks like the sort of unexposed type thats needed for this sort of race. The same comments apply to Say What You See, an easy winner LTO at Taunton his best run was probably on debut when beating Salsalino at Uttoxeter & is the type that Pipe wins these races with. So to the bets. I've staked a total of 20.20 points on the four horses to try to land the double which if sucessful will return around 460 points. I've also staked a total of 20 points on the four as singles which would return around 45 points & cover the stake for the day. Finally I have 10 points on L'Aventure, total stake 50.20 points. The prices taken are, Grattan Lodge 5/1 L'Aventure 7/1 Mr President 10/1 Say What You See 16/1 All the best, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Nothing to shout about today. Grattan Lodge pulled up & the well backed L'Aventure ran like a real madam. In the other race both were up there but folded up in the straight. minus 50.20 points. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Sunday in Ireland Yesterdays fare was nothing much to get excited about but theres some good sport at Leopardstown this afternoon. AIG Europe Champion Hurdle. Two Miles, Soft/Heavy Five of these six met over C&D 25 days ago, the one who didn't run there is Accordion Etoile who won a valuable handicap hurdle at Cheltenham 70 days ago when looking thrown in at the weights. This one looks to need a much faster surface than today & along with the big jump in class rules this one out. There is a doubt over Hardy Eustace taking part as he also seems better on a faster surface & seems to be a spring horse. Yet to find the same level of form which won him the Champion hurdle & held by other runners on last two runs. Georges Girl also looks held by others but does go on this ground, will be a bit closer than LTO which was her seasonal debut but is surely not good enough. Solerina is a cracking mare & this is her ground but not her trip, most of her wins have come over further & another half mile would give her a real chance. Interesting that she's not in the World Hurdle at the Festival but is in the Champion. In the longer race it would seem that Barracuda is the standout with much more to beat in the Champion. Brave Inca won last years Supreme Novice & as been second on his three starts this season. In the middle run of these he was beaten 6l by Solerina giving her 5lb as he does today, however that was over 2m 4f & LTO he turned the tables beating her by 5l on the same terms over todays C&D. On this ground there won't be much between them today. In the other two runs Brave Inca has been runner up to Macs Joy. On the first occasion he was beaten a length giving Macs Joy 10lb over two miles on soft at Down Royal. This form was more than confirmed in the race over C&D 25 days ago when at level weights Macs Joy scored by 3l over Brave Inca with Hardy Eustace a further 2l behind & Solerina & georges girl also beaten, all on todays terms. This race looks the key to the chances of Macs Joy today. Two runs ago he was third beaten less than 2l to Harchibald & Back in Front at Punchestown when recieving 3lb & 8lb. At the time this looked a dip in form but since then Back in Front has won the Bula Hurdle at Cheltenham & Harchibald the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle & the Xmas Hurdle at Kempton. I can see no reason why the others should turn the tables on Macs Joy today unless he fails to handle the ground & he's run well enough on soft. 40 points on Macs Joy at 7/4. The other race of interest is the 1.40, a grade one novice chase. Foreman comes over from France & this one was a usefull hurdler. On his one start over fences he was beaten 9l at Newbury by Kauto Star whos now the favorite for the Arkle at the festival. Foreman was hard ridden in this & looked like he might need a bit further than he'll get today. Ned Kelly came back from two years off to run third on his first try over fences four weeks ago & this one could 'bounce'. Sir Oj fell when 3l in front LTO at this C&D. The Meade yard is under a cloud at the moment. The one I like is Scarthy Lad, two from two over fences & goes on the ground & looks an improving type over this trip. 20 points at 4/1. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Scarthy Lad made a horlicks of the third last & was never a factor after, I suspect he would not have troubled the winner anyway. Macs Joy looked to be going to win comfortably going to the last, however he was steaded up so much to make sure he got over that he almost stepped over the hurdle. I thought he was beat & so did the jockey on Brave Inca who glanced down at the number cloth in disbelief as 4 was called the winner. So since restarting with actual staking, Races 4 Wins 1 Stakes 110.2 points Returns 110 points Profit/Loss -0.2 points Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Saturday 19th Feb An interesting day, I shall be watching the 2.10 at Lingfield closely where Iris's Gift makes a most unusual chasing debut. I've had 30 points on Baron Windrush in the Red Square chase at Haydock, an improving sort he gets the trip & goes on the ground. Most of the others have question marks & in general look a bunch of plodders to me with the exeption of Control Man who has to give the selection 2lb here. I may take an interest in Rigmarole in the 3.05 at Wincanton but prefer to wait to see if there are positive signs nearer the off time. Good luck to all today, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases The ground is riding a bit dead at Wincanton but Ruby thinks Rigmarole will be ok, Jim Culloty thinks Edredon Bleu should take his chance in the chase also so it can't be that bad. 30 points Rigmarole at 100/30. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Not a day to remember yesterday, Baron Windrush was always at the back & never looked like getting into the race. Rigmarole also never looked like winning, Inglis Drever went violently left at the last few hurdles but still won well enough. Iris's Gift ran a fair race for first time over fences, cheltenham will come too soon tho' but might be a decent race in him before the seasons out. Races 6 Wins 1 Stakes 170.2 points Returns 110 points Profit/Loss -60.2 points Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Saturday 26th Feb Kempton 3.45 My usual method of race study leads me to Colonel Frank for this. Usually this race needs a runner with some form on the course which he doesn't have but 3 of his 4 chase wins from just 6 starts have come on right handed tracks and the other on the figure of eight at Fontwell. On his only defeat this season he was trying to give 18lbs to Oneway who is one of the most improved chasers around. Jumps well, goes on the ground & gets the trip. 30 points at 6/1. All the best, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Saturday Chases Colonel Frank was well backed in to 4/1 fav but was fading badly when falling two out.Races 7 Wins 1 Stakes 220.2 points Returns 110 points Profit/Loss -90.2 points Rio.