Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) 2:00 Newcastle - The Fifth Member - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) Talented 6 year old, who on his day would be in with a big shout in this race. He comes here fresh after being unraced for 10 months and making his reappearance at the back end of last month. He ran well for a long time over 1m at Ascot, tried to make the running but got tired, possibly needed the run (never won after a break) and should come here in far better knick. He is effective from 7f to 10f and runs over an 8 furlong trip here under stamina sapping conditions, which if recapturing old abilities, he will thrive on it. His abilities to run further than this trip should come in handy as 1m at the Newcastle track takes a lot of getting and his abilities to stay on well should come in handy here. He has also won on Heavy ground over 7f, placed over 1m and came nowhere over 1m 2f, all from 3 runs on Heavy ground. He should love these conditions and has some classy form along the lines suggesting that a mark of 86 may not be beyond him, despite being 5lbs above his highest winning mark but has placed from 3lbs higher on a couple of occasions. The Fifth Member ran well for a long time last time out, sent off as a 57/1 outsider and hit 10/1 in running but faded tamely, I think he needed the run and should fair out a lot better here. He also tried to make all that day, a tactic that has never paid off for him before. He will more than likely be forced to sit further back today and that could pay dividends. The 2 Johnston horses could take it along at a good gallop and with my selection likely to be close up and potentially able to stay on best of the lot I think he'll go very well and hopefully place at least. He is most effective coming off a strong pace and his jockey Pat Cosgrave has given him similarly effective rides on numerous occasions, he has been on board The Fifth Member for 10 races winning 3 times with 2 seconds and 2 3rd places. Very impressive and they obviously get on well together, hopefully they'll click once again. Cosgrave rides the track very well on the rare occasion that he comes here, he has a 13% strike rate and has 3 rides today. He also does really well when riding for Jim Boyle (great name!), they have a 13% strike rate together. What really interests me is that Jim Boyle is making the guts of a 600 mile round trip from Epsom to Newcastle, a track that he has never visited before. I can't really get my head around it and possibly he feels the track is ideal for a horse like this, there couldn't be any other reason. This is the only horse he brings here and at 20/1 I'm certainly thinking he's overpriced and has good if not solid place claims on his best form, he will relish conditions and comes here fit, fresh and well treated. He's an 8/1 shot in my book and viciously overpriced by the odds compliers, they could be right but I don't think so. Now on to the runners in the race, Osteopathic Remedy has to contend with top weight and had a tough race just over a week ago, he has also never run overly well on this ground and is much more effective in big fields. 7/2 represents now value and he's opposable and bordering on being a lay. Bullwhip is joint top weight, ran poor enough last time out and I'm not sure he'll enjoy the 1m trip in stamina testing conditions, I could be wrong but at 5/1 I can't get involved, especially without Buick on board for Gosden. The 2 Johnston horses, Al Farahidi and Secretive could both be out for the jog, knowing Johnston they probably will be kept for what will be 2 interesting 4 year old campaigns, they have the ability to win here but I'm not sure if this true test will be to their liking although the former won so well on a really tough Pontefract course in soft ground suggesting he could well enjoy this but at 5's I don't want to get on. City Of The Kings is a quick ground horse, has ability but may not be loving conditions here and I wouldn't be too keen on the claimer on board. Arabian Spirit is high enough in the weights, should enjoy conditions but not for me at 11/4, could be vulnerable at this track, came 11 of 11 on only run here off 2lbs higher and he's no value. Faithful Ruler is interesting on his best form but hasn't shown too much of late and not sure if he likes this really soft ground, form suggests not. The last one, Scrapper Smith, takes a big jump in class and has a penalty, he will enjoy conditions but it's a big leap up on all known form and I can't see how he's half the price of my selection. On his best form, The Fifth Member could go very well here, he runs well on the back of a good gallop and has enough speed, stamina and a good attitude to run well here. I think he'll go close if coming back to his old self and I can't see the price hanging around for too long. He's worth small each way stakes in the hope that he is up to his old ability and justifies Boyle's extremely long trip.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Quick one for the jumps. Price to follow. 3:25 Kempton - Goodwood Starlight - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) Followed this one on the flat for a while, he's a decent 5 year old who has ability when in the mood, tends to pull hard but has a wonderful turn of foot on his day. I reckon he'll prove to be a decent sort over timber and although this may be a tough ask to win at Listed level on his hurdling debut I think it's worth taking a small chance on. He's from a yard who do very well with their hurdlers, he's trained by Sheena West and she has a very good 11% strike rate when running horses over hurdles and has a massive profit to £1 level stakes of £162 with a 49% ROI. She is sure to have this fellow in tip top shape and if taking to the jumps on his first run he'll be very dangerous on these terms. He will love the ground, stays all day but often pulls too hard but might have too much on his mind to do that here. This doesn't look the strongest of 2m races and I reckon one of the first time jumpers will win it, hopefully it'll be Goodwood Starlight. He's currently trading at 25/1 for small money but I'm expecting it'll be a lot shorter than that come morning, I'd be happy with 12/1 or so and that's what his forecast price suggests he will be. Jamie Goldstein takes the ride and he's a decent jockey and rides well for this trainer, they've had 14 runners at this course winning twice and with decent priced horses too, hopefully it's a good omen. He's worth small e/w stakes in the hope that he takes to this first time, he's certainly one to follow in the long term and I think he'll come into his own this season. He has the ability and will be suited by a likely fast gallop here, he could be anything but hopefully it's something special.

[calculus]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts)

2:00 Newcastle - The Fifth Member - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (>Bet365)

Why I didn't back this when I got home at 3am I don't know! Best price 10s now...:wall

[markysimmo]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts)

Why I didn't back this when I got home at 3am I don't know! Best price 10s now...:wall

Into 8s now

[markysimmo]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts)

2:00 Newcastle - The Fifth Member - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) Talented 6 year old, who on his day would be in with a big shout in this race. He comes here fresh after being unraced for 10 months and making his reappearance at the back end of last month. He ran well for a long time over 1m at Ascot, tried to make the running but got tired, possibly needed the run (never won after a break) and should come here in far better knick. He is effective from 7f to 10f and runs over an 8 furlong trip here under stamina sapping conditions, which if recapturing old abilities, he will thrive on it. His abilities to run further than this trip should come in handy as 1m at the Newcastle track takes a lot of getting and his abilities to stay on well should come in handy here. He has also won on Heavy ground over 7f, placed over 1m and came nowhere over 1m 2f, all from 3 runs on Heavy ground. He should love these conditions and has some classy form along the lines suggesting that a mark of 86 may not be beyond him, despite being 5lbs above his highest winning mark but has placed from 3lbs higher on a couple of occasions. The Fifth Member ran well for a long time last time out, sent off as a 57/1 outsider and hit 10/1 in running but faded tamely, I think he needed the run and should fair out a lot better here. He also tried to make all that day, a tactic that has never paid off for him before. He will more than likely be forced to sit further back today and that could pay dividends. The 2 Johnston horses could take it along at a good gallop and with my selection likely to be close up and potentially able to stay on best of the lot I think he'll go very well and hopefully place at least. He is most effective coming off a strong pace and his jockey Pat Cosgrave has given him similarly effective rides on numerous occasions, he has been on board The Fifth Member for 10 races winning 3 times with 2 seconds and 2 3rd places. Very impressive and they obviously get on well together, hopefully they'll click once again. Cosgrave rides the track very well on the rare occasion that he comes here, he has a 13% strike rate and has 3 rides today. He also does really well when riding for Jim Boyle (great name!), they have a 13% strike rate together. What really interests me is that Jim Boyle is making the guts of a 600 mile round trip from Epsom to Newcastle, a track that he has never visited before. I can't really get my head around it and possibly he feels the track is ideal for a horse like this, there couldn't be any other reason. This is the only horse he brings here and at 20/1 I'm certainly thinking he's overpriced and has good if not solid place claims on his best form, he will relish conditions and comes here fit, fresh and well treated. He's an 8/1 shot in my book and viciously overpriced by the odds compliers, they could be right but I don't think so. Now on to the runners in the race, Osteopathic Remedy has to contend with top weight and had a tough race just over a week ago, he has also never run overly well on this ground and is much more effective in big fields. 7/2 represents now value and he's opposable and bordering on being a lay. Bullwhip is joint top weight, ran poor enough last time out and I'm not sure he'll enjoy the 1m trip in stamina testing conditions, I could be wrong but at 5/1 I can't get involved, especially without Buick on board for Gosden. The 2 Johnston horses, Al Farahidi and Secretive could both be out for the jog, knowing Johnston they probably will be kept for what will be 2 interesting 4 year old campaigns, they have the ability to win here but I'm not sure if this true test will be to their liking although the former won so well on a really tough Pontefract course in soft ground suggesting he could well enjoy this but at 5's I don't want to get on. City Of The Kings is a quick ground horse, has ability but may not be loving conditions here and I wouldn't be too keen on the claimer on board. Arabian Spirit is high enough in the weights, should enjoy conditions but not for me at 11/4, could be vulnerable at this track, came 11 of 11 on only run here off 2lbs higher and he's no value. Faithful Ruler is interesting on his best form but hasn't shown too much of late and not sure if he likes this really soft ground, form suggests not. The last one, Scrapper Smith, takes a big jump in class and has a penalty, he will enjoy conditions but it's a big leap up on all known form and I can't see how he's half the price of my selection. On his best form, The Fifth Member could go very well here, he runs well on the back of a good gallop and has enough speed, stamina and a good attitude to run well here. I think he'll go close if coming back to his old self and I can't see the price hanging around for too long. He's worth small each way stakes in the hope that he is up to his old ability and justifies Boyle's extremely long trip.

Good e/w 2nd if you got on at 20's pal, i got it at 10s... Added with a Cahill 1st goal at 15/2 my betting day has started well :):):)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) I was on at 20's mate, pity he didn't win but twas a good effort. +1pt on the day. 2:40 Pontefract - Amistress - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) Progressive 2 year old who was a convincing winner last time out, gone up 10lbs for that success but it may not be beyond her. She's bred to be a decent juvenile and once she got the hang of things she has turned out to be a good animal. This is much tougher than any of her previous races but she has many a thing on her side. With Pontefract being a very stamina testing track she will have conditions to savour here, she ran over this C&D on her penultimate start, finishing 2nd to a decent looking Johnston horse. She is bred to handle further than this 1mile trip and with stamina being in abundance she may prove to be a lot better than a mark of 55 in a nursery like this, not only is she bred to have a lot of stamina but she also finishes off her races very well, suggesting to me that there could be a lot more to come from her. She gets in here off a very lightweight of 8st 1lb and has the master of lightweights, Silvester De Sousa, on board. He also rode her on her only start here and gave her a fine ride when 10lbs out of the handicap. Amistress ran very well in an 11 runner handicap last time out, winning by 3 lengths after tracking the leaders to stay on strongly towards the finish. Those were very positive tactics that day and with a more reserved running style here I think she will be staying on best of the rest as it's likely that we'll see a reasonably quick gallop which will suit, she is also one of only a couple to have experienced this tough track. The ground is ideal and the draw in stall 12 may not have too much of an effect on her chances as it may force her to be held up, which I want to see. Amistress is trained by the wonderful Eve Johnson-Houghton, she rarely visits this track and when she does, her runners are always of interest to me. She comes here with two charges and I reckon both have solid chances. The last time she came here it was with these two, Amistress and Yurituni. The former coming 2nd and the latter coming 1st. In all her time training Eve has only had 12 runners here with 4 wins (33%), 2 2nds and 3 3rd places. When De Sousa rides for her he has a 23% strike rate, they haven't teamed up too often but the stats are mightily impressive and he's always a big positive to any horse, even more so when doing such a light weight. Amistress is likely to be around the 12/1 mark and that's too big in my opinion, she has got her head in front now and should really plow on from there, even with a 10lb penalty. She has everything going for her here, it is a tough race but I believe her forecast price is massive and I was expecting something closer to the 5/1 mark. She's worth small each way stakes, tougher race to contend with but she has the ability to go close. Price to come.

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Nice choice on Amistress Monte - thats a choice of mine too mate!! Good luck to her and us! :hope

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Good luck dude, hopefully she does the job for us. :hope I'm on Eve's other runner too, owes me nothing after being in big on her last run here. 3:40 Pontefract - Yurituni - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365) Talented 3 year old filly on her day who could still prove to be on a handy mark having seen blinkers improve her when winning over C&D 3 weeks ago. She just went up 2lbs for that success after making all to score by 1/2 a length in a weaker race than this, she got a big lonely in front and ran about a bit, she could of scored by further if not for that, suggesting there may be more to come. She ran at Bath next time out, upped to 6f, on soft ground and was sent off the 9/2 favourite. She got no cover at all and had to race very wide which cost her any chance, she was eased when beaten and finished last. She now drops back to 5f which is a big plus, she clearly relishes a tough stamina test and she is bred to have plenty, as shown when she won here under Kieren Fallon. He gets the leg up again and that's a massive plus in my opinion, he gave her a wonderful ride that day and has a fantastic record when riding at Pontefract, he has a 22% strike rate here and has won aboard 4 of his last 5 rides here. He also shows a big level stakes profit of +£75 to £1 stakes. Yurituni has been competitive off a mark of 7lbs higher and although it'll take a career best effort to win this she certainly has enough in the locker to do well. I can't see similar tactics being used here as there is many front runners in the race but she has been suited by fast gallops before and with her stamina likely to prove very capable once again I see her as the one who should be staying on best of the rest. She may be hot and cold at times but I believe last weeks performance was due to being ridden so wide and not being covered up, she will get plenty of chances to cover up here and she clearly enjoyed the testing track on her only start here. There is more to come from this filly and although this is a tough assignment I do believe she has it in her to win, she has place claims at a minimum if coping with the short gap between races. 10/1 is too big and with everything likely to suit I had her as the 11/2 second favourite, she's worth small each way stakes in the hope that she can reproduce her impressive win on her penultimate start.

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Hi Monte....! I'm ******* sick that Amistress and Yurituni didn't do better today!! I thought we were onto a real good thing there!! Weird thing was... Iwhen I was at the bookies and I seen Captain Royale's name up there in "LCD", I thought to meself............... he's winning! So hard to decide should the head or heart rule/make the decisions!! Anyways ol' bean, upwards and onwards - looking forward to seeing what ur choices are for today! Sláinte, Derek

[superbourg]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts)

Hi Monte....! I'm ******* sick that Amistress and Yurituni didn't do better today!! I thought we were onto a real good thing there!! Weird thing was... Iwhen I was at the bookies and I seen Captain Royale's name up there in "LCD", I thought to meself............... he's winning! So hard to decide should the head or heart rule/make the decisions!! Anyways ol' bean, upwards and onwards - looking forward to seeing what ur choices are for today! Sláinte, Derek

But Amistress was placed, wasn't she? I saw 4 places there just before the start at Betfair. Non-runners didn't affect that number. Anyway the bad strike is already in the past and from now on it will be better )

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Cheers lads, in a rush so can't reply in detail! Hopefully this fellow's a winner today. :) 3:40 Ffos Las - Munsarim - 2pts e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365) Well bred 3 year old who has some decent form lines through his maiden races, he has flopped on 3 occasions since winning a maiden by 11 lengths over 1 mile. I would put those poor runs down to the 10-12f trips he was running off, this horse is an out and out miler in my opinion and now dropping back to 1m could and should see him in a better light. He was initially given a mark of 87 after winning the maiden, he was hampered and had a poor jockey on board, he looked the likely winner 2 out but got tired and failed to see out the 10f trip. He was then somehow stepped up to 12f, ran on soft ground and never looked a danger, beaten by 16 lengths and showed very little. Then he ran well for a long way last time out, over 10f again, looked to be traveling well but didn't see out the trip after half rearing in the stall at the start. He has been dropped a couple of pounds after all of those races and now gets to run off a mark of 80, that should prove a mark well within his capabilities. He also has the wonderful 3lb claimer, Martin Lane, on board for the first time. That should be a big plus to a horse who had to put up with the 'services' of Richard Hills, Tadhg O'Shea, Jamie Spencer and Ted Durcan, all jockeys who on their day could ruin the chances of the worlds best horses. Munsarim strikes me as one who needs quick ground, he should get that today with the ground currently Good to Firm and unlikely to change. The draw in stall 9 isn't perfect but it shouldn't cause too many problems at this course. This flat galloping track should suit him perfectly and with the combination of ideal ground and his optimum trip, I think he'll put up a brave showing, he is tactically versatile and can be ridden to make all or held up, he may be forced to do the latter due to his draw but there's only one out and out competitor for the lead and I'm hoping Munsarim may get to the front early on. He has a wonderful turn of foot and when allowed to dictate with conditions suiting he'll prove to be a decent animal, the way he accelerated 3f out when winning his maiden was impressive and he won by a very eased down 11 lengths in the end, suggesting there could well be a lot more to come from this fellow. On debut he was a 7l 3rd behind Al Zir who has since went on to be a very decent animal. He was 2l behind Coordinated Cut next time out, that one was last seen in the Irish Derby and then he was 2l behind the Hannon youngster, Invincible Soul, who has since placed in a number of big races and is rated 94 by the Handicapper. They were impressive runs and all over more suitable distances, he has a lot more to give and hopefully it starts here. Everything's going for him and his 11/1 price tag is far too big for a horse of his abilities, he's unexposed and open to improvement. I had him down as a 5/1 shot and he warrants decent each way stakes and is certainly one to keep an eye on in future engagements. Martin Lane doesn't ride for Dunlop often and he has a 22% strike rate when doing so, this is the only horse Dunlop sends out today to a course that he has never had a horse out of the top 3. (1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds) Lane also has a 22% strike rate when riding here and a 50% place rate, he's a plus to any horse and should be an ideal partner for this fellow. I expect a big run and wouldn't be surprised to see this price shorten significantly.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) That one was shocking. No selections until Friday at least, one of my relations is very, very sick in hospital at the moment. :(

[BillyHills]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) All the best mate:hope

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Cheers BH, it definitely won't be good news though, only a matter of time. :(

[puntyboy]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Sorry to hear that monte. :(

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Thanks mate, tis not good but always could be worse. Hope I'm back for Fridays racing, was looking forward to a Friday and Saturday raid.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Small one today, short write up as I'm wrecked tired. 3:55 Doncaster - Kellys Eye - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (PaddyPower) Previous selection of mine, consistent at this level and never beaten by far, he runs off a mark of 93 here and I think he has a race like this in him off that mark. Jamie Spencer takes the ride so there's a risk attached but he guided him to a 4th place out of 16 runners on his only time on board. He rides the course reasonably well and this horse should appreciate its galloping nature, he handles all ground and although not well drawn it shouldn't prove an impossible task. 4 places are being paid and I think he could grab one at the very least, if running to ability. There's a hell of a lot of pace in the race and that will suit as he often stays on very strongly and has a nice turn of foot. Spencer is 2/5 when riding for this trainer with a further 2 places, it's an interesting booking for Kellys Eye and he could well outrun his price tag. Tough race but not beyond him in my opinion.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+201pts)

Risky horsey number one! 1:55 Newmarket - Blessed Biata - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365) Well bred 2 year old who is closely related to five winners including German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino. She made her debut at Kempton over 6f, it took her quite a while to get used to her new surroundings and she didn't get going until late on. She was held up near the rear of the field and wasn't really travelling, she was then under pressure 2f out but eventually started to eat up the ground from just outside the 1f marker to fly home late to grab 4th place. That wasn't the strongest of maidens by any means but her run was quite eye catching and she should certainly come on in leaps and bounds for having had that experience. This is certainly a huge jump up from that class 4 maiden but if she proves as classy as some of her relatives she could just outrun her price tag and ground that may be to her liking due to her sires record of producing some decent soft ground animals. This may be a complete shot in the dark but she's now stepped up to 7f and on the back of a good gallop her impressive stamina should kick in and hopefully she could run on for a place, her action gave me the impression that the soft ground may prove to be an ideal surface for her and she has a good draw in stall 14. This is a huge step up in class for Blessed Biata but I certainly expect she could be a decent sort next year and is worth keeping an eye on between now and then. She seems to have a good turn of foot and with an emphasis on stamina on the testing ground of a galloping track she may just have the ability to outrun her price tag in this big race. She's trained by the wonderful William Haggas who'd be prone to the odd big priced winner and I'd expect she'll be well primed for this after having her debut run 4 weeks ago. Haggas has a decent record at the course and Liam Jones takes the ride, he has a very impressive level stakes profit at this course and a good 14% strike rate and a 42% strike rate over this C&D, not that it really matters! He's a jockey I rate quite highly and if he can get this filly settled she could have an outside chance of grabbing a place. Together, from the AP O'Brien yard is certainly the one to beat but at 9/4 I think she's opposable despite her impressive run behind White Moonstone last time out, I also think she needs 1 mile at least and the drop back to 7f isn't ideal. I'm going to take a punt and back the Haggas filly at odds that are too big to me. She is a 16/1 shot in my book and should have a lot more to come. 40/1 is above and beyond what I'd expect to back her at and she's worth a small each way bet to cause a shock. Hopefully she doesn't come last.

Blessed Biata was a fast finishing 6th' date= 2 lengths back, came from a long way back and ran very well near the end. Not bad for a 50/1 shot. She'll make a good miler.

Runs on Saturday in the 3:40 at Newbury, should have ideal conditions and I'm really considering lumping on. She'll be a class act IMO. Should be around the 10/1 mark, brilliant. :beer:beer

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Spencer, Spencer, Spencer. :wall 1:55 Doncaster - Cheveton - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365) Owes me nothing after selecting him on his last 2 runs, both of which he won. He comes here bang in form and despite only just getting there to win last time out I feel he could of won by more with numerous things going against him in running. He was hampered at the start of the race, not too badly but it would still have a fair effect on him, he also could get a run 1f out and had to be switched before making a very late charge. With a clear run he could of won by a couple of lengths at least and he has been risen to a mark of 97 now, potentially not beyond him if in the same vein of form as his last 2 runs. He has a great turn of foot when there's some juice in the ground and at the moment it should suit him to perfection, he has a perfect draw in stall 20 and he's highly suited by the galloping nature of the Doncaster track. He has run here before, never too well but has never been beaten by more than 4.75 lengths here and has never been here in such a rich vein of form. This is possibly his toughest task to date in terms of the opposition he faces but at this price he's certainly worth taking a chance on. Dale Swift gets the ride on Cheveton again, he was on board for his 2 recent wins, giving good rides on both occasions. He's excellent value for his 5lb claim and brings the Richard Price trained 6 year old down to a riding weight of 9st, which could put him bang in the mix. He hasn't raced for 4 weeks and should come here fit and ready to put up a brave effort. Price has never had a winner at Doncaster, nor has Dale Swift, I'm hoping that Cheveton can change all of that. There is plenty of pace in the field and that should be to his liking, the ground is perfect as it is and he's well drawn, I can't understand how he's not shorter than the current odds of 10/1. If he gets the breaks in running he could be staying on the best of the lot from the rear and with 4 places paid I fully expect he'll grab one of those, at least. Harry Patch is the big danger, he's a lightly races, progressive and highly talented sort, but he's drawn poor enough for this minimum 5f trip but may be good enough to overcome that. I just don't want to get involved at 9/2 in a race like this and although he stands a solid chance I think Cheveton will push him right down to the wire if Swift doesn't give my selection too much to do. He's on a horse with a great attitude and one who will give his all if he's able to and I'm hopeful he can do me another good turn, he's 6/1 2nd favourite in my book and I don't think 10's will be around for too long, medium each way stakes for me.

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Monte.. just wondering what your thoughts are on That's A Fret -I've followed this one for a while and has been very good to me but now it's up against one of your selections, I'm getting nervous :lol. Robert Winston is riding him for the first time, I think, so a new jockey is sorta a worry for me, but whats your thoughts mate? He ran a great race LTO when he beat Green Park - a runner that a lot of people thought was gonna be the winner!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Handicapped out of it IMO, in good form but this is way way tougher than anything he has encountered before. Possibly a step to far and isn't value to me at 14/1, I'd want quite a bit more before I'd consider backing him. Not got a favourable draw either. 2:55 Doncaster - Zaidan - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) Unexposed 2 year old who made great strides when winning the Chesham Stakes at Ascot in June, beating some classy 2 year olds in the process. He was over 5 lengths ahead of the highly progressive King Torus who finished 4th that day, he has went on to win 2 Group 2 races since including one demolition job when winning by 6 lengths. My selection then bombed out on softer ground next time out in the Listed Washington Singer at Newbury. That was only a 4 runner race which was run at a very fast gallop, he tried to keep up with the pace setter early on which put paid to his challenge and he found little in the final couple of furlongs. The soft ground was put forwards as the main reason for his poor showing but I don't believe that to be the case. He certainly appeared to be traveling nicely throughout and in my opinion he suffered due to the pace. There's no real speed merchants in this race that will take the field along at 100mph so I'm expecting things could go in the favour of Zaidan. The ground isn't ideal but I still think he has the ability to go well with a bit of cut in the ground despite that being the excuse for his run last time out. The Doncaster course should suit his galloping style perfectly and he's a big strong colt who should still have a lot more to give. Zaidan is clearly held in high regard and I consider him a very exciting prospect for next year if all goes well. It may be a bit risky backing him on this ground but I really thought he was traveling well on it when last seen and he may find everything a little bit easier this time around. Seb Sanders is on board again and he has taken the ride on all 3 of his career starts. Sanders rides the course well, he has a good 13% strike rate when riding for Clive Brittain and shows a tidy profit too. Sanders comes here for only 1 ride which is interesting and I think he's a great partner for the potentially top class Zaidan. I think that the 25's available are far too big, he's clearly a talented horse and this is a tough race but I think there's a lot more to come from this fellow over 1m+ and now stepped up to this trip for the first time could see him in a better light. He has won at this course before, on debut and over 5f, this is a completely different kettle of fish but I think he could run into a place if handling the ground. He's a 10/1 shot in my book and I think he could run well enough.

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Cheers for your reply mate. Have struck him off my list now! :sad Here's hopeing the worst doesnt happen :eek Good luck - and hope all is well with your family mate!!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Don't strike him off the list based on what I've said, you've seen how bad I've been doing lately so you know what'll happen now! :lol He'll end up winning after I say I don't think he will. Always goes like that. Listen to your instincts pal, if only I did at times I'd have a lot more money! Thanks mate, the family is as good as they can be at the moment. It could always be worse, no matter how bad it is! :cheers

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Cheers Monte for your advice/help! Thinking of doing a lucky 31 with 2.05 Newbury - Pearl Arch 2.25 Doncaster - Galtymore Lad 2.55 Doncaster - Titus Mills 3.10 Newbury - Medici Pearl 3.40 Newbury - Blessed Biata :tongue2 Whats ur thoughts mate? DONKEYS!! I'd have won the race before these feckers

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) I'll get back to you if I get a chance mate. :) Flat out at the moment! 2:05 Newbury - Dux Scholar - 3pts @ 5/1 (StanJames) Constantly improving 2 year old who could go on to bigger and better things next year but looks a very decent sort at this moment in time. He's stepping back in trip to 7f after running at a mile on his last 3 outings, 2 of which were poor enough races. His 3rd place last time out was eye catching in many ways, he made a burst to get to the front just over 2f out but tired badly and found nothing in the final 150 yards, suggesting the step back in trip should be exactly what's required. He will enjoy the cut in the ground and should be ideally suited to the galloping nature of the Newbury track, he strikes me as a speedy individual when he clicks and with Ryan Moore on board for the 2nd time in his short career I'm expecting him to put up a bold effort to claim a Group 3 scalp on his 5th outing. He's drawn well in stall 11 and with a distinct lack of out and out pace in the race I think it could be lined up for him, there's plenty of prominent racers here but none that plug along and any great speed which will make it easier for Dux Scholar when the going gets tough as he seems to have a nice change of gears when they're required and with less emphasis on a true test of stamina and more emphasis on speed come the final couple of I think he could have the beating of this lot with the turn of foot he showed on his last run, despite looking outpaced at one stage. He's trained by the wonderful Michael Stoute so I highly doubt his progression will stop any time soon, Stouty does well enough at Newbury although he has never had a 2 year old winner here when Moore has been onboard but hopefully it's 22nd time lucky today, they've a 19% strike rate together at the track overall and Moore usually does very well here. 5/1 looks a price too big to turn down for me, I had him priced up as the 11/4 second favourite, just behind Elzaam. I can't back that one based on his poor performance when last seen over 3 months ago and he represents poor value but sets a high standard at his best, he's a classy animal but I find it odd that they're firing on blinkers on him already. I'm not sure that the step up to 7f on this slow ground will suit either and he's certainly opposable in my eye, Richard Hills on board is a big no-no too. Medium sized stakes at a tasty price for the Michael Stoute trained 2 year old, he has a lot going for him here and provided there's not a really fast tempo he should go well.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) 2:40 Newbury - Clowance - 2pts @ 11/2 (PaddyPower) Classy mare on her day, 5 years old now and lightly raced having had only 7 starts in a career spanning across 4 seasons. She needs conditions to be ideal and Roger Charlton has been patient with this daughter of Montjeu. With rain forecast overnight and soft ground a distinct possibility she should have everything just right for her. On her day she'd make light work of this field but she hasn't been seen for 6 months and it's a bit of a lottery as to how she will turn up but I fully expect Charlton will have her in fine knick and ready to claim her first Group win. She has placed in 3 Group 1's in 3 countries, most notably the Irish St Ledger after a 15 month lay off which suggests to me that she should handle the break and she won her maiden after 6 months off. She has been campaigned at distances varying from 1m on debut to bordering on 2 miles when racing at Lonchamp, this 1m 4f trip should be ideal and with a solid pace almost guaranteed we should see her at her optimum today, all going well. She may have to sit back in the field to run on late but she can be ridden to race prominent also, she has a hell of a lot of stamina but also has the speed to match and with Richard Hughes on board chasing the jockeys championship she has a man on a mission on board for the day. He should be an ideal partner for her and all going well I think she could outrun her price, if she wasn't off the track for so long she wouldn't be even close to this price and she's good value for money. I can't see 11/2 hanging around for long and her price is already on the move with some other firms. I think this race could be made for her assuming the rain comes and the ground softens but at this price she's worth the risk. Clowance has a lot to prove in terms of finally getting a Group win but when on song she's certainly much better than these horses and having already experienced this track on 4 occasions and having won here 2 times I think she holds a big advantage over her rivals, none of which have won at this course. It's no easy task by any means but I think she will run very well and I had her priced up as the 3/1 clear favourite, making 11/2 way too big and she's worth small/medium stakes in the hope that she proves to be as good as ever.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) 3:10 Newbury - Gouray Girl - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365) Relatively unexposed 3 year old filly who has had 8 career runs, 4 this year and 4 last year, she should come her fit, fresh and ready to put up a bold bid in what looks a decent contest but certainly has a race of this calibre in her locker if turning up. She handles all ground but goes particularly well with cut in the ground, which she should get today. She hasn't won since debut but has put in a number of solid placed efforts since, placing off marks of 75, 80, 83 and 87. She runs here off a mark of 90 and a place is the least I'm expecting if she runs to ability. She steps up to 7f for the first time and it has always shaped as if it would suit, she is bred to stay this trip and possibly further but has plenty of speed and should relish these conditions on this track, I always like to be on horses who come from the back at Newbury and she fits the bill, she's very fast when she gets going and should be staying on as well as any come the final couple of furlongs and she has a grand draw in stall 10 so she should get a good sit in behind. Interestingly, she is partnered by the unbelievably talented Jamie Spencer, (sarcasm!) he's awful at times and splendid on occasion, he'll be suited to this filly and if he can get her settled he may just somehow manage to avoid running her into the arse of other horses, but this is Jamie we're talking about and he'll probably do it anyways, just for the fun of it. Spencer doesn't ride for Swinburn too often and when he does he has a good 16% strike rate, he also rides the course well on occasion and 7f is probably one of his more effective riding distances as it's not short enough to hold the horse up for too long and it's not long enough for Jamie to dance the horse around in front until it gets too tired. Swinburn doesn't come here too often with horses but he has a decent 10% strike rate and his horse have been running with credit of late. All going well he should have this one primed and ready to strike here today and land the spoils, she certainly has the ability to do it. Gouray Girl is currently priced up at 8/1 and with so much in her favour today I'm expecting that to shorten, she's an 11/2 shot in my book and looks like a good each way price with 4 places paid and 1/4 the odds for those places. She's never beaten by much, her biggest defeat was last time out when she was 4 lengths away but she's ultra consistent and I think she'll be putting that run behind her now if something doesn't go wrong. Place claims at least, plenty of claims to why she could win too. Small/medium each way stakes at a tasty price, which may not last.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) I said I was lumping on when I seen this one out again, and that I am doing! Crazy price. Gone beyond my max bet for the first time since I said 5pts was the limit. 3:40 Newbury - Blessed Biata - 5pts e/w @ 9/1 (StanJames) Lightly raced 2 year old, only has had 2 runs to date, both highly promising and I reckon she'll go on to be a classy 3 year old if she trains on. She is closely related to five winners including German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino. She made her debut at Kempton over 6f, it took her quite a while to get used to her new surroundings and she didn't get going until late on. She was held up near the rear of the field and wasn't really travelling, she was then under pressure 2f out but eventually started to eat up the ground from just outside the 1f marker to fly home late to grab 4th place. This is certainly a huge jump up from that class 4 maiden but if she proves as classy as some of her relatives she could just outrun her price tag and ground that may be to her liking due to her sires record of producing some decent soft ground animals. Blessed Biata ran at Newmarket last time out in a valuable Sales race in which I selected her and she went off at 50/1, she ran an absolute cracker and made rapid late headway after being stopped in her run on 2 occasions which cost her the race, in my opinion. She ended up coming 6th of 20, 1 3/4 lengths behind the impressive Masaya. The form of that race is the best on the table and she certainly can consider herself an unlucky loser. That was her first run over 7f and she got it with ease, although I think she'll make a mighty fine miler. She handled the soft ground with ease that day also and with slow enough conditions likely today she will have things to her liking, her Sire has produced a number of decent slow ground specialists and she seemed to enjoy it when getting to grips with the race last time out. She had Liam Jones on board that day, with all due respect he's a decent jockey but the step up to Jim Crowley here is yet another positive, he's a jockey I rate and he has always done me good turns in the past. He's on this filly for the first time and he's riding as well as ever of late, with 4 winners in the past few days and another couple unlucky not to be in the winners enclosure also. He does reasonably well at the course and doesn't ride often for William Haggas so I find he's an interesting booking for the yard. Haggas has been bang in form this month with a fair few winners and he has a good 14% strike rate at this course and shows a profit with his 2 year olds, he's very patient with his juveniles and I expect she'll be let of the leash today and we'll see a big run. She has cracking potential and ever since I watched that debut run I thought she could make a very nice sort, all going well it'll start here today. 9/1 is a monster price based on her run last time out and if she replicates that and gets some luck in running she'll go very well. She has place claims at an absolute minimum and big win claims assuming she came out of that race 3 weeks ago without problem. There are no fewer than 6 first time out winners racing here and they could be anything but Blessed Biata brings cracking form to the table, has a turn of foot to match any of them and is suited by conditions here. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pace here which may be ideal, she seemed to find the race was over before it begun last time out and with that less likely to happen here she'll have more time to find her feet and get into that big galloping stride, the track will suit her and she has a might fine pilot to guide her home. She's the 7/2 clear favourite in my book and I may be a bit mental with double maximum each way stakes here but even if she does lose I've absolutely no doubt I'll be paid back big time next year and I don't want to miss out on her winning for the first time, she's a cracking filly and she should prove well ahead of this Listed class, although so could a number of the others but I'm a gambler and it's worth the risk.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Total Staked - 25pts Haven't staked so much since Cheltenham. :loon Could be a disaster or brilliant, I'm favouring the latter. :) Here's hoping and good luck if anyone plays any of them.

[Kick The Bucket]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Not fancying Cheveton again, Monte? Edit: Ignore that, just seen previous page. Good luck!