ScottyXS Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) There is something terribly fishy about moggis :unsure Needless to say he is talking p!sh, but the way he is going about this, looks like he is just setting himself up to try and scam some newbie. No previous history means we have no proof, stop making unsubstantiated claims- you make yourself look like a right fruit-loop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! a couple of days ago I received a PM from a member on this site requesting that I give him details of my antepost acca bets. from something he wrote,I became curious as to the content of the last few messages on this thread,.......so I have just read them for the first time... and....OMG..........I am considering whether you are even worth replying to.......for now..may I ask the mathematician the following: do you live in london?-if so I would very much like to meet you for a drink and to discuss this. So far as w hill taking bets from a big winner is concerned.....let me point out that only coral and bet365 take most of my bets....and even they restrict me from february onwards. APPARENTLY,it is babyish of me to ask any of you to put your money where your mouth is-even on the "best betting forum"(see the thread thats locked). how very,very convenient for you all! AS A MATTER OF FACT,my target for this season is now 200% profit-although I am the first to admit that its only a 50/50 chance that I will get this.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) to ofcourseitwas.......... YES you are wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) to scotty Apparently on "the worlds best betting forum" people like you-who I assume are NOT a pro gambler(apologies if u r),are allowed to write such things without putting money on it. I f you wish to profit from your wonderful expertise,may I therefore suggest that you send me a pm...and we will come to a private arrangement...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) let me make something abundantly clear,THE ONLY REASON I posted on this thread is because people were claiming AS A FACT that the only way you can make long term profits is from value-betting...and I make a living from proving this to be false. NOW,I dont give a damn whether you believe I am a successful gambler or not-I am laughing all the way to the bradford and bingley(which may no longer exist). NOW,if you wish to disbelieve me,that is not only fine,its totally understandable! but if you make the kind of comments that you have been making then be assured that within a year from now,there will be a significant number of people who know what I do and how its done-NONE OF WHICH will be members of "the worlds best betting forum" adios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrybazcam Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) to all the moggis doubters out there,i am the person who told him not to reveal what he does.furthermore,when he does reveal it i think it will change the whole ante post market forever.which is the reason i said not to reveal.i can tell you all the reason i know him is because i work for one of the big three bookmakers and presented him with a cheque for £125,000 five years ago.i can also tell you he had two major wins in the two years after, one was around the £250k mark the other £185k.i can also say that he won £120k in around 3 minutes,i think it was two years ago when,i think again,it was a bury goal in the final minute,very luckily on this occasion,meant his ante post bet won and a bet that proves his system also won,had the second bet not won the first would have..finally i have also tried what he does for small stakes and it does work and amazingly you don't have to spend a lot of time to do it.when moggis called me and asked me to look at the last few posts i was amazed at some of the posts,,the mathematitians was absolutely ridiculous and scotty you are so far out it i fear you may be a rangers supporter.had i not met him i may have been a disbeliever but it works and is very much true,,i can also say he would rather have told you what he does than want any money for it,so not scam there,,you will all know who he is when it comes out,i would bet on it being at the end of this season,no matter you will know when it happens :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Do you think there is "value" in betting that Moggis and Barrybazcam are one and the same person ? :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ha,ha,ha...I have just seen barrys post and I think he would agree that,apart from our ages...we couldnt be more different...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) unfortunately,Barry,mentioning big wins merely reinforces the belief that it could be luck....and you know youre telling the truth..and I know....but they dont...anyway lets not forget that its the question of whether or not my bets need to be value that matters....and they will never beleive that unless I spell it out to them.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) value is simple : you have a winning system : you have value. you have a losing system : you don't have value. that's all :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) but NOT with long-term bets!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Really interesting post! Has anyone who is into value betting examples of their betting results based on this system? I would it interesting to see how everybody is doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Belux,I think you may need to elaborate? as your question stands,however,let me point out that I dont see how anyone would have examples of "value-betting using this system/strategy"since anyone betting on antepost markets looking for value would have a very hard time indeed doing anything other than singles!!!! at any one time on antepost markets(especially once the season is underway)there are probably only 4 or 5 value bets to be had.......and its very very unlikely that any individual would be able to identify all of them! even if they could,1 or 2 of these bets would be outsiders and so the actual acca that they do wouldnt even come close to winning. THE WHOLE POINT of my system/strategy is to overcome the chronic lack of value in antepost markets while taking advantage of the one big weakness that bookies have in such markets!!! good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Sorry if my question was not clear enough. I was just wondering why people are not quoting the bids they made based on this system in this topic so that others can see what is about and can see if it works good enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I must admit I had to smile when I read that..as I am not sure what you mean. Are you referring to me-since I am the one who is making claims? If so,the reason I dont proof my bets on here is because I have no interest in proving that I win doing these bets. I merely have an interest in pointing out that: you can make long-term profits on antepost markets without either being lucky OR any of your bets being VALUE. NOW,the problem is this-people are so certain that bets must be value,that even if I gave you all my bets for the rest of this season.......and I made 100%profit,people on here would say that either it was luck OR the bets must have been value!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) good luck and that good luck you will need :-) No system can long term overcome betting against value. That is a fact. But you can be lucky more than one time on accus, and thereby win good money. Years back I bet on what called "Tips 13" and won first price twice. Two smaller first prices though, but big enough to come out long term winner. I bet my own homemade system, which was theoretical strong and suited my needs and my bank. But even though I did all the right things, I was all the time betting against value and I came only out a winner because of luck. It is the samme with accus, if you bet against value. You can make good or even huge profit, but still, at the end of the day, it is due to luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) YES,thats right-but thats only true of short-term bets/results. in antepost markets there IS a way of overcoming lack of value...and if I told you how its done you would kick yourself. I dont want to get banned from here so can I ask you a THEORETICAL question only? out of sheer curiosity,how much money would you actually bet that I am wrong if the judge was a recognised professor of gambling studies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Depends on how the question is formulated and who the judge is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Ive no interest in this system but would like to know your opinion of the chances of your selections winning when you place these bets. Are you saying you back selections when you think the odds are too short.in other words the true odds of your selection winning should be bigger than the bookies are offering. I assume these bets are all win bets and not EW against short odds on shots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) look,this is a message to the mods.,I apologise for coming back to this subject and will now disappear again-unless a friend informs me that there have been comments accusing me of some ulterior motive. (or,that you guys have got a collection together totalling £250,000+with which to bet that I am wrong-whereupon we will find an agreed professor of gambling studies,I will explain to him(or her)how its done,he(or she)will confirm that I am right and we will all be happy!:cheers) until such time,there is obviously nothing to be gained from continuing this. Just for the record,I am hoping to bet £170,000 on antepost bets this season....and my target is a return of £500,000 +. to those of you who say its luck,well the thing is,if I dont get the £500,000,I am very much hoping that I dont actually lose my £170,000!!! I already have several excellent positions and believe that this is the easiest antepost season for the last 13 years(which is how long I have been doing these bets). good luck everyone with whatever bets you do... If I get the 500k I shall arrange a get-together for all posters on this thread:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Good luck. No need to waste time on convinced value bettors and non believers. But the day you will explain some more of your secret, I promise to listen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well trips,I will answer you since you posted just before me. if you read the thread,then you will see that your question has been well and truly answered. YES,that right,I place bets fully believing that they are poor value!! and,yes,I realise you are now certain that I am an idiot. as a matter of fact my next accas will be each-way. (interestingly enough,when I started doing antepost accas,I was doing them PURELY because 10 years ago there was superb value in the places well into the season-but the bookies got wise to this a few years back). whenever I place an antepost acca,I NEVER beleive it has the slightest chance of winning!! that not the reason why I place the bets!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) thank you Shy10ck,hope to see you in may!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) The reason why most on here are often sceptical of these things is because why would a high roller who is making all this money come on to a message board just to say "hi everyone I make lots of money, but I'm not telling you how"...... and it's usually because these things are quickly followed by some kind of spam by way of offering a system, or selling a tipsters website. I don't see the point in even posting at all. Why the need :unsure If you're making all this money you shouldn't need to shout about it on an internet forum, as if you're looking for some kind of recognition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well Jase,I certainly dont need recognition since Ive already had my picture on page 4 of the sun and have been featured in my local paper sevearal times and was even the front page story of the blackpool echo the day after they got promoted. I thought I had adequately explained why I posted: this whole thread is based on a "fact"that I know to be false. NOW,I am obviously different to some on here-when I have got something wrong I like to be told. Even if the person doesnt give me the whole explanation,I ,personally,would be grateful just to be told that an assumption I have made may well be false... ESPECIALLY,if it leads to more profitable gambling oportunities... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ALSO,I now post on other betting forums..and have not revealed to them that I am a big winner... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Welcome back moggis - I think we've been here before. ;) NOW,I am obviously different to some on here-when I have got something wrong I like to be told. Even if the person doesnt give me the whole explanation,I ,personally,would be grateful just to be told that an assumption I have made may well be false... ESPECIALLY,if it leads to more profitable gambling oportunities... The problem remains exactly the same as it was first time around - you are telling people they have made a false assumption without providing any proof to back that up. Personally, I think you'd have to be a bit of a fool to just accept the word of a complete stranger on a betting forum without any corroborating evidence. Seeing as you believe that your secret will become public knowledge at the end of the season, why not wait until then? That way, you could answer any questions or doubts with detailed information instead of playing this rather pointless guessing game that you seem to enjoy so much. Either way, I wish you luck with your antepost bets - not that you'll need it of course. :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well,westernskies,I think thats a tad unfair since waiting until the end of the season was precisely what I was doing UNTIL a member of this site pmd me. I then read some comments that I had not previously seen-and when one of those is from a mathematician claiming that he has proof that I am wrong,then,heh-yeah-I want to meet them and I am gonna respond. YES,YES,YES you would be foolish to take my word for this....but you miss the point... people are stating that they are CERTAIN I am wrong....but none of them will put their money where their mouth is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajaxAgain Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Well being from a maths background I must say I'm firmly on the value side of this argument until proven otherwise, but I also like to think I have an open mind. I also quite like guessing games so I'm annoyingly intrigued. IF you have indeed found a way to exploit a flaw in the bookies odds that shatters the only truth we know, then I can't wait for you to enlighten us with it, now or at the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) My best guess, if not bs, is that he is of the opinion, that when you bet accus, fx 3/7 or 4/4, you can use the picks with strong value to "equalize" the picks with doubtful value. Accus is an interessting issue, that deserves its own thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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