Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

[futbolmx]

After the last outcomes I will be extremely conservative this week, I have in the look two matches that are almost infallible, now I take in account another very important factor; if a team have the money to fix a match, yes I'm not kidding.

Saturday 17 April 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Monterrey v CF América (23:00 BST)	1.85	3.5	4	107.63 %
	Queretaro FC v Estudiantes Tecos (23:00 BST)	2	3.25	3.8	107.09 %
	Chiapas v Indios Juarez (23:00 BST)	1.72	3.5	4.6	108.21 %
	Sunday 18 April 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Guadalajara-MEX v Atlas (01:00 BST)	2	3.4	3.6	107.19 %
	Pachuca v Deportivo Toluca (01:00 BST)	2.2	3.3	3	109.09 %
	Atlante v UANL Tigres (01:00 BST)	2.1	3.25	3.25	109.16 %
	Puebla v CD Cruz Azul (18:00 BST)	2.37	3.4	2.62	109.61 %
	Club Universidad Nacional v CA Monarcas Morelia (18:00 BST)	1.9	3.4	4	106.79 %

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 Also Liga de Ascenso:

	Saturday 17 April 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Correcaminos UAT v Pumas Morelos (02:30 BST)	1.75	3.4	4.2	110.36 %
	Club Necaxa v Club Universidad de Guadalajara (23:00 BST)	1.22	5.5	10	110.15 %
	Sunday 18 April 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Club Deportivo Irapuato A.C. v Club Tijuana (01:00 BST)	2.15	3.2	3	111.09 %
	Mérida FC v Lobos de BUAP (01:05 BST)	1.85	3.3	3.75	111.02 %
	CSD Dorados de Sinaloa v CD Veracruz (02:00 BST)	1.7	3.3	4.5	111.35 %
	Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Alacranes de Durango (18:00 BST)	1.4	4	6.8	111.13 %
	Potros Chetumal v Guerreros FC de Hermosillo (18:00 BST)	1.52	3.6	6	110.23 %
	Reboceros De La Piedad v Club León (22:00 BST)	1.85	3.3	3.75	111.02 %

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

Very irregular in this last phase of the mexican tournament, I will try to explain some of this irregularities: Chivas Guadalajara-Atlas Not so many people, expect that Indios won twice. This is what happen with Guadalajara in my opinion, they were in a begining a balanced team in offensive and defensive, but in this tournament with Hernandez, Bautista, Medina they do their attack with four men becoming a team that relies his victories in the offensive; now they have only two men attacking and althought they were great players it seems that they forgot his past glories, I refer to Bravo and Arellano. For the other side, Atlas play very well against Pachuca, but after this good performance they drop to the bottom facing Puebla in his home and giving to they 2 goals without response, and I have to say Puebla is a not as good as Pachuca, for this match the victory is on the side of Atlas, I have to say that both teams Atlas and Chivas play in the same stadium, so local conditions are relative. A closed match but Atlas have a little advantage. Last minute new, Hernandez is out of Chivas, the goalkeeper Hugo Hernandez that was replacing Luis Ernesto Michel suffer an injury and will be out six months. Monterrey-America. Some players and directives of the last team say that God is helping they to reach the finals, the truth is other, nobody will change my opinion that they fix the match with Jaguares, Jaguares overscore Monterrey and Guadalajara (before the callings to selection) in his own stadium, America is a very irregular team, with a level below these other teams, without explication what happen in America stadium. After doing some mathematics, if Jaguares win over Morelia (as that indeed happen) America have strongs posibilities to pass to finals. First I though this will be a draw as Monterrey manage to draw his last matches (3 draws in a streak) with San Luis for example, Monterrey score his only goal with the clock almost consuming the match time. For this match Monterrey will count with Neri Cardozo and Duilio Davino. Puebla-Cruz Azul Cruz Azul lost in his home against an alternative squad of Pachuca, the players said that the poor outcomes is due to fatigue, that the team don't have an identity and more metaphysical Jaguares-Indios de Juarez. Indios don't have the money to buy Jaguares and with this in mind only teams factors will count. Indios will fight with all that they have, but Jaguares is better team, they need this points to make a comfortable gap against relegation. I don't have doubt Jaguares will win. How I say in my past post this phase of the tournament will present many irregularities, was irresponsible of my part to risk many units last time with things not settled yet. This time will be more conservative.

First bet: Monterrey vs America Monterrey @ 2.1 Stanjms, 2 Bt365 For reasons above explained, another good new, Monterrey will close his participation in Libertadores just as they begin it, with an alternative squad with no titulars, this could also benefit Nacional de Asunción, but need to expect more news. Jaguares vs Indios Jaguares @ 1.72 StnJames, 1.7 WilliamHll Jaguares needs this points to scape relegation, and they have the team to overcome Indios. Guadalajara vs Atlas. Atlas +1 @1.72 Bt365, 1.75 W.Hill

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 One of the unwritten laws of betting: Never bet on a derby. Chivas vs Atlas is a derby. Still Atlas option you take seems like the best option.

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

Jaguares vs Indios Jaguares @ 1.72 StnJames, 1.7 WilliamHll Jaguares needs this points to scape relegation, and they have the team to overcome Indios.

Indios, according to mathematics is already relegated and will play in Liga Ascenso next season. So in that case Jaguares doesn't need to scape relegation. Jaguares has next two seasons (17 matches in each one) in Primera Division.

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 The third time of the year this two teams will confront, last two where in the semifinals of CONCACAF Champions League. Pachuca was unbeaten in both matches, taking a draw in Toluca and winning in home 1-0 to claim the ticket to the final. Pachuca take the lead in the first match and being able to focus in defense was the main key for winning the semifinal. The main way this match is different from the semifinals series is that the need will be on Pachuca side, meanwhile Toluca can take coach De la Torre favored situation, sit back and counterattack. Toluca Carries an streak of 5 consecutive victories, with a great performance in that streak. In last 4 matches haven't allowed a single goal, taking into consideration the match against San Luis, where they allowed 2 goals, that is 2 goals in last 5 matches, for an average of 0. 4 goals per match allowed. Toluca just needs 1 point to secure their qualification to playoffs, and in that case the draw is a very good result, and in away the team have improve since the start of the season where they get a draw and a defeat, to a streak of 5 matches without defeat on away, last 3 have been victories, altought not very strong teams as Queretaro, Tigres and San Lus, but a remarkable streak. From 8 matches on away the team has just 2 defeats. The team has showed decisive scoring the goals in the precise moments. carries a solid defense. FW Carlos Esquivel is in a great momento, with 3 goals in this streak. The team posses the offensive power to make many goals, but it seems coach de la Torre doesn't unleash them and maintain them under a tactical order where defending the lead seems more important than obtaining another goal, just when the team is tied is when coach de la Torre uses this offensive power. In the long run this has showed to be effective to the team but not very spectacular. Pachuca Almost This is it for Pachuca, if they don't get the victory and America and Morelia get victories, everything will be over for them and will see their chance to get to playoffs diminish, the team is just trailing both by 1 and 2 points precisely. Have the advantage that for the kick-off they will know the result of Monterrey vs America match, Monarcas Morelia plays tomorrow against Pumas UNAM. But this is their last home match and Monarcas and America close the regular season playing in home. In resume and in words of coach Rivalora: "They have to win this match" In the positive side, MF Damian Manso returns to the starting lineup and is a very interesting player that can turn the tide of the match. Also MF Gerardo Rodriguez and DF Jaime Correa returns to the lineup. In midweek the team plays the first leg of the final for CONCACAF Champions League, open on away against Cruz Azul on Mexico City. Due to this fact it wouldn't be strange that coach Rivalora supports again on youth players for this match as they had a good performance on midweek. One show of this is that FW Victor Mañon continues on the starting lineup, meanwhile FW Juan Carlos Cacho and FW Ulises Mendivil goes to the Sub-20 team. Injured: MF Luis Montes National Team Callups: DF Paul Aguilar Match An intense and attractive footballl match, Pachuca showed their best level in the first leg match against Toluca in CONCACAF Champions League semifinals, but now will be on home and carries the obligation to have the initiative. Pachuca should pressure to obtain the advantage, meanwhile Toluca will be laid back and look to make danger in counterattacks. Prediction Toluca faces coach De la Torre best situation, be the team to laid back and with precise counterattacks have the chance to win the match. Toluca has showed good defense and something that should continue to display. Time will be the worst enemy for Pachuca and could lead to open spaces that Toluca will be glad to take advantage of. The AH seems the best option, and with powerful strikers that Toluca posses, should take a good result. Toluca +1/4 [email protected] en Pinnacle 8/10

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

The third time of the year this two teams will confront, last two where in the semifinals of CONCACAF Champions League. Pachuca was unbeaten in both matches, taking a draw in Toluca and winning in home 1-0 to claim the ticket to the final. Pachuca take the lead in the first match and being able to focus in defense was the main key for winning the semifinal. The main way this match is different from the semifinals series is that the need will be on Pachuca side, meanwhile Toluca can take coach De la Torre favored situation, sit back and counterattack. Toluca Carries an streak of 5 consecutive victories, with a great performance in that streak. In last 4 matches haven't allowed a single goal, taking into consideration the match against San Luis, where they allowed 2 goals, that is 2 goals in last 5 matches, for an average of 0. 4 goals per match allowed. Toluca just needs 1 point to secure their qualification to playoffs, and in that case the draw is a very good result, and in away the team have improve since the start of the season where they get a draw and a defeat, to a streak of 5 matches without defeat on away, last 3 have been victories, altought not very strong teams as Queretaro, Tigres and San Lus, but a remarkable streak. From 8 matches on away the team has just 2 defeats. The team has showed decisive scoring the goals in the precise moments. carries a solid defense. FW Carlos Esquivel is in a great momento, with 3 goals in this streak. The team posses the offensive power to make many goals, but it seems coach de la Torre doesn't unleash them and maintain them under a tactical order where defending the lead seems more important than obtaining another goal, just when the team is tied is when coach de la Torre uses this offensive power. In the long run this has showed to be effective to the team but not very spectacular. Pachuca Almost This is it for Pachuca, if they don't get the victory and America and Morelia get victories, everything will be over for them and will see their chance to get to playoffs diminish, the team is just trailing both by 1 and 2 points precisely. Have the advantage that for the kick-off they will know the result of Monterrey vs America match, Monarcas Morelia plays tomorrow against Pumas UNAM. But this is their last home match and Monarcas and America close the regular season playing in home. In resume and in words of coach Rivalora: "They have to win this match" In the positive side, MF Damian Manso returns to the starting lineup and is a very interesting player that can turn the tide of the match. Also MF Gerardo Rodriguez and DF Jaime Correa returns to the lineup. In midweek the team plays the first leg of the final for CONCACAF Champions League, open on away against Cruz Azul on Mexico City. Due to this fact it wouldn't be strange that coach Rivalora supports again on youth players for this match as they had a good performance on midweek. One show of this is that FW Victor Mañon continues on the starting lineup, meanwhile FW Juan Carlos Cacho and FW Ulises Mendivil goes to the Sub-20 team. Injured: MF Luis Montes National Team Callups: DF Paul Aguilar Match An intense and attractive footballl match, Pachuca showed their best level in the first leg match against Toluca in CONCACAF Champions League semifinals, but now will be on home and carries the obligation to have the initiative. Pachuca should pressure to obtain the advantage, meanwhile Toluca will be laid back and look to make danger in counterattacks. Prediction Toluca faces coach De la Torre best situation, be the team to laid back and with precise counterattacks have the chance to win the match. Toluca has showed good defense and something that should continue to display. Time will be the worst enemy for Pachuca and could lead to open spaces that Toluca will be glad to take advantage of. The AH seems the best option, and with powerful strikers that Toluca posses, should take a good result. Toluca +1/4 [email protected] en Pinnacle 8/10

Quality post as always Xcout - you have a PM by the way. ;)

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 A small profit as just half bet won. Pachuca 1-1 Toluca. +3.16 Units

[Spooner]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 Nice work Xcout. :clap

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

Nice work Xcout. :clap

Thanks Spooner

[Jenspm]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 good stuff as always, keep it up :clap

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

Indios' date= according to mathematics is already relegated and will play in Liga Ascenso next season. So in that case Jaguares doesn't need to scape relegation. Jaguares has next two seasons (17 matches in each one) in Primera Division.

I would have sayed that Jaguares need to sum points to make more points for the porcentual table of the next year and scape relegation, anyway all the bets pay, and I still sum more profit.

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

First bet: Monterrey vs America Monterrey @ 2.1 Stanjms, 2 Bt365 For reasons above explained, another good new, Monterrey will close his participation in Libertadores just as they begin it, with an alternative squad with no titulars, this could also benefit Nacional de Asunción, but need to expect more news. Jaguares vs Indios Jaguares @ 1.72 StnJames, 1.7 WilliamHll Jaguares needs this points to scape relegation, and they have the team to overcome Indios. Guadalajara vs Atlas. Atlas +1 @1.72 Bt365, 1.75 W.Hill

All the matchs pay. Three units risked, 2.54 units profit.

[Jenspm]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

All the matchs pay. Three units risked' date=' 2.54 units profit[/quote'] good stuff :clap

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

One of the unwritten laws of betting: Never bet on a derby. Chivas vs Atlas is a derby. Still Atlas option you take seems like the best option.

I know the rules, written or not, and is that fact the one who make me take some freedoms, but thanks for the advice.

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 Thanks Jenspm. :ok

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 Last tip of the week.

Club Santos Laguna v San Luis (01:00 BST)

1.58

4.5

7

Pick:1 Stake:6/10 units Also see a match of few goals, but an early goal could change this, better go with 1. I want to hear the thoughts of Xcout and Matty in this match.

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 Santos Laguna -1 was the best option for me. But with a further analysis I considerer that it can go either way, is true that Santos Laguna with a victory secures qualification, but even losing will have the future in their hands. San Luis has improved on away, and in their performances have now 3 consecutive away matches without defeat taking against important home teams like Monterrey and Pumas UNAM. One thing to remark about San Luis is that they are in the last place of the league, and apart from trying to void this honor, the team have sustain and give time to coach Ignacio Ambriz, something that is being reflected in their last results (draws in difficult away fixtures). Santos is in a bad streak right now, this match could compose and even compensate that, but I will avoid this match as in Territorio Santos Modelo, Santos haven't being very reliable. San Luis is so unpredictable right now, and after this analysis I feel them capable of something good or at least in the future.

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16 I was tempted to take Santos -1, but how you say San Luis is very impredictable and could give a surprise, the new that many injured players will return to Santos is what give me that confidence, I hope real aspirations of Liguilla for Santos will be a good motivation for they to win. Edited:I change of oppinion, Santos -1@ 2.4 Bet 365 1/10 units. End of Edit

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

that many injured players will return to Santos

I consider that is up to see how this players will return, I don't expect them to be at their top level and hurrying them to play in order to achieve qualification is a high risk.

[futbolmx]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

I consider that is up to see how this players will return' date=' I don't expect them to be at their top level and hurrying them to play in order to achieve qualification is a high risk.[/quote'] I risk very much with this handicap, I must have waited to see how they played this game, as you say they don't return at their best, but the match goes well for Santos. In this thread: 10 units risked 5.02 units net profit Overall: 46 units risked 20.02 units net profit

[Xcout]

Re: Mexico April 18 Jornada 16

I risk very much with this handicap, I must have waited to see how they played this game, as you say they don't return at their best, but the match goes well for Santos.

With a really late goal at minute 93. The Saviour goal for you that is.